09-26-2016, 09:41 PM
*** 27-Sep-16 World View -- US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russian warplanes drop phosphorus bombs and bunker buster bombs on Aleppo
****
![[Image: g160926b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160926b.jpg)
White helmet workers in Aleppo find a small child in the rubble after a bombing (CNN)
In 2015, Syria's army suffered a string of defeats, and even al-Assad
admitted that his army was in danger of collapse. That was turned
around when Russia fully entered the war in September of last year.
Earlier this year on March 15, Russia's president Vladimir Putin
announced that most of Russia's forces in Syria would be withdrawn
because "the objectives set before the Defense Ministry and the Armed
Forces have on the whole been achieved."
Russia has been forced to reverse this withdrawal, as Bashar
al-Assad's Syrian army appeared last month once again to be
collapsing. Furthermore, Turkey has invaded Syria with "Operation
Euphrates Shield," and is setting up a growing "safe zone" in Syria
along Turkey's border that will not easily be displaced. Other
regions of Syria are being controlled by the Kurds, by the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and by Jabhat al-Nusra
(al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS). I heard one
analyst say that Al-Assad is being reduced to be ruler of
"Alawite-istan," meaning that al-Assad, an Alawite, may end up being
president of only a small portion of Syria along the Mediterranean
Sea.
Hoping to prevent complete disaster for al-Assad, Russia is back with
more force than ever, and with bigger weapons than ever -- phosphorous
incendiary bombs that suffocate people by sucking up all the oxygen,
cluster munitions, and huge "bunker buster" bombs that penetrate deep
underground by punching holes in concrete before detonating, bringing
down whole buildings.
Some reports indicate that the Russians have targeted hospitals whose
operating rooms have moved to the basement for safety, but are now
vulnerable to bunker buster bombs. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
said, "Let us remember: the fighting has forced hospitals and schools
to operate in basements. These bombs are not busting bunkers; they are
demolishing ordinary people looking for any last refuge of safety."
Foreign Policy and Daily Mail (London)
Related Articles
****
**** Comparisons of Syria civil war to Sri Lanka civil war
****
I heard an analyst today compare the war in Syria to the Sri Lanka
civil war. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that
comparison does not hold up. In fact, the situation is Syria is
almost the exact opposite of the situation in Sri Lanka in 2009.
As long-time readers may recall, as the Sri Lanka civil war approached
a climax in May 2009, every news organization and analyst that
reported on the civil war were predicting that the civil war would
continue on for months or years, because it had already gone on for 26
years.
As far as I know, every analysis in the world was wrong except the
Generational Dynamics analysis. As I had been saying for months
earlier, the Sri Lanka civil war was a generational crisis war, headed
for an explosive climax, and when that climax was finally reached,
then the war would be over once and for all. The comparison I made
was to the surrender of Berlin and Tokyo that ended World War II once
and for all.
In January 2008, the low-level violence turned into a full scale
generational crisis war, as we reported at the time. Finally, in May
2009, the Sinhalese army trapped the Tamil Tiger militants in a
U.N.-declared "safe zone" and slaughtered them, including a number of
civilians, although 50,000 civilians that had been trapped there were
freed. That was the end of the war.
This analyst said that al-Assad and Putin expect a similar outcome
in Syria from the current flattening of Aleppo. This is close
to being delusional.
The Syria war is an Awakening era war, and they following a
predictable pattern that I've described many times in countries like
Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and others. The Syria war
should have fizzled in 2011 or 2012, but continued only because of the
depraved violence of Bashar al-Assad, backed up force from Iran and
Hezbollah, and especially by massive flattening of civilian
neighborhoods by Russian bombs.
The pattern for an Awakening era war is that it runs for a while, then
it stops because of some kind of peace agreement, then picks up again
a few months or years later. The primary pattern of an Awakening era
war is this alternation between conflict and "peace" -- where the
peace is characterized by peaceful demonstrations and protests.
The bombing of Aleppo does not change that fundamental pattern. World
War II ended with the fall of Berlin, and with the nuking of Japanese
cities. The Sri Lanka war ended with the trapping and slaughter of
the Tamil Tiger rebels. But none of that is true in Aleppo.
Consider the statistic that some 600 civilians in Aleppo were killed
over the weekend. That's a lot of civilians, but that kind of
slaughter isn't enough to stop the Kurds, ISIS, al-Nusra or Turkey.
There are over 200,000 civilians living in Aleppo, and Russia's
phosphorous incendiary bombs, cluster munitions, and "bunker buster"
bombs are not going to end the war.
At times like this I become philosophical. If policy makers and
politicians understood generational theory, then they wouldn't make so
many stupid mistakes. But one can't expect delusional leaders like
al-Assad and Putin to act rationally, unfortunately. Al Jazeera
Related Articles
****
**** US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes
****
Relations between Russia and the West reached a vitriolic height at an
emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Sunday.
In the past, Western politicians diplomatically refrained from
criticizing Russia, in the hope from bringing peace to Syria. But
Western officials have been made fools of so many times, and the
Syrian war has been such a geopolitical disaster that Western
officials no longer see the point of being diplomatic.
Samantha Power, the US Ambassador to the UN accused Sergei Lavrov, the
Russian Ambassador to the UN, of repeated lying. She added:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"What Russia is sponsoring and doing is not
> counterterrorism, it is barbarism. Instead of pursuing peace,
> Russia and Assad make war. Instead of helping get life-saving aid
> to civilians, Russia and Assad are bombing the humanitarian
> convoys, hospitals and first responders who are trying desperately
> to keep people alive."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he was "appalled" by the military
escalation and that the use of bunker-busting bombs "brings the
violence to new depths of barbarity."
Matthew Rycroft, Britain's ambassador to the UN, said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"After five years of conflict, you might think that
> the regime has had its fill of barbarity -- that its sick
> bloodlust against its own people has finally run its course.
>
> But this weekend, the regime and Russia have instead plunged to
> new depths and unleashed a new hell on Aleppo. This isn't
> Pompeii."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Sergei Lavrov said that the Western accusations were an attempt to
deflect attention from last week's accidental bombing of a Syrian army
unit:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I would like to emphasize that the Americans and
> their Western allies, for one thing, want to distract public
> attention from what had happened in Deir Ezzor."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Syrian officials later said that the Deir Ezzor bombing was
"intentional."
Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed outrage at the charges of
barbarism and war crimes directed at Russia:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We note the overall unacceptable tone and rhetoric of
> the representatives of the United Kingdom and the United States,
> which can damage and harm our relations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's particularly ironic for Peskov to worry about damaging and
harming Russia's relations with the West.
Guardian (London) and CNN and Russia Today
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Turkey, Operation Euphrates Shield, Ban Ki-moon, Aleppo,
Iran, Hezbollah, Sergei Lavrov, Samantha Power, Matthew Rycroft,
Sri Lanka, Tamil Tigers,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russian warplanes drop phosphorus bombs and bunker buster bombs on Aleppo
- Comparisons of Syria civil war to Sri Lanka civil war
- US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes
****
**** Russian warplanes drop phosphorus bombs and bunker buster bombs on Aleppo
****
White helmet workers in Aleppo find a small child in the rubble after a bombing (CNN)
In 2015, Syria's army suffered a string of defeats, and even al-Assad
admitted that his army was in danger of collapse. That was turned
around when Russia fully entered the war in September of last year.
Earlier this year on March 15, Russia's president Vladimir Putin
announced that most of Russia's forces in Syria would be withdrawn
because "the objectives set before the Defense Ministry and the Armed
Forces have on the whole been achieved."
Russia has been forced to reverse this withdrawal, as Bashar
al-Assad's Syrian army appeared last month once again to be
collapsing. Furthermore, Turkey has invaded Syria with "Operation
Euphrates Shield," and is setting up a growing "safe zone" in Syria
along Turkey's border that will not easily be displaced. Other
regions of Syria are being controlled by the Kurds, by the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and by Jabhat al-Nusra
(al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS). I heard one
analyst say that Al-Assad is being reduced to be ruler of
"Alawite-istan," meaning that al-Assad, an Alawite, may end up being
president of only a small portion of Syria along the Mediterranean
Sea.
Hoping to prevent complete disaster for al-Assad, Russia is back with
more force than ever, and with bigger weapons than ever -- phosphorous
incendiary bombs that suffocate people by sucking up all the oxygen,
cluster munitions, and huge "bunker buster" bombs that penetrate deep
underground by punching holes in concrete before detonating, bringing
down whole buildings.
Some reports indicate that the Russians have targeted hospitals whose
operating rooms have moved to the basement for safety, but are now
vulnerable to bunker buster bombs. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
said, "Let us remember: the fighting has forced hospitals and schools
to operate in basements. These bombs are not busting bunkers; they are
demolishing ordinary people looking for any last refuge of safety."
Foreign Policy and Daily Mail (London)
Related Articles
- Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse (04-Sep-2016)
- Russia declared 'Mission complete' in Syria and withdrew, but the war rages on (05-Apr-2016)
- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse (08-Apr-2015)
****
**** Comparisons of Syria civil war to Sri Lanka civil war
****
I heard an analyst today compare the war in Syria to the Sri Lanka
civil war. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that
comparison does not hold up. In fact, the situation is Syria is
almost the exact opposite of the situation in Sri Lanka in 2009.
As long-time readers may recall, as the Sri Lanka civil war approached
a climax in May 2009, every news organization and analyst that
reported on the civil war were predicting that the civil war would
continue on for months or years, because it had already gone on for 26
years.
As far as I know, every analysis in the world was wrong except the
Generational Dynamics analysis. As I had been saying for months
earlier, the Sri Lanka civil war was a generational crisis war, headed
for an explosive climax, and when that climax was finally reached,
then the war would be over once and for all. The comparison I made
was to the surrender of Berlin and Tokyo that ended World War II once
and for all.
In January 2008, the low-level violence turned into a full scale
generational crisis war, as we reported at the time. Finally, in May
2009, the Sinhalese army trapped the Tamil Tiger militants in a
U.N.-declared "safe zone" and slaughtered them, including a number of
civilians, although 50,000 civilians that had been trapped there were
freed. That was the end of the war.
This analyst said that al-Assad and Putin expect a similar outcome
in Syria from the current flattening of Aleppo. This is close
to being delusional.
The Syria war is an Awakening era war, and they following a
predictable pattern that I've described many times in countries like
Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and others. The Syria war
should have fizzled in 2011 or 2012, but continued only because of the
depraved violence of Bashar al-Assad, backed up force from Iran and
Hezbollah, and especially by massive flattening of civilian
neighborhoods by Russian bombs.
The pattern for an Awakening era war is that it runs for a while, then
it stops because of some kind of peace agreement, then picks up again
a few months or years later. The primary pattern of an Awakening era
war is this alternation between conflict and "peace" -- where the
peace is characterized by peaceful demonstrations and protests.
The bombing of Aleppo does not change that fundamental pattern. World
War II ended with the fall of Berlin, and with the nuking of Japanese
cities. The Sri Lanka war ended with the trapping and slaughter of
the Tamil Tiger rebels. But none of that is true in Aleppo.
Consider the statistic that some 600 civilians in Aleppo were killed
over the weekend. That's a lot of civilians, but that kind of
slaughter isn't enough to stop the Kurds, ISIS, al-Nusra or Turkey.
There are over 200,000 civilians living in Aleppo, and Russia's
phosphorous incendiary bombs, cluster munitions, and "bunker buster"
bombs are not going to end the war.
At times like this I become philosophical. If policy makers and
politicians understood generational theory, then they wouldn't make so
many stupid mistakes. But one can't expect delusional leaders like
al-Assad and Putin to act rationally, unfortunately. Al Jazeera
Related Articles
- Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels (04-Jan-2008)
- Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war (17-May-2009)
****
**** US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes
****
Relations between Russia and the West reached a vitriolic height at an
emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Sunday.
In the past, Western politicians diplomatically refrained from
criticizing Russia, in the hope from bringing peace to Syria. But
Western officials have been made fools of so many times, and the
Syrian war has been such a geopolitical disaster that Western
officials no longer see the point of being diplomatic.
Samantha Power, the US Ambassador to the UN accused Sergei Lavrov, the
Russian Ambassador to the UN, of repeated lying. She added:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"What Russia is sponsoring and doing is not
> counterterrorism, it is barbarism. Instead of pursuing peace,
> Russia and Assad make war. Instead of helping get life-saving aid
> to civilians, Russia and Assad are bombing the humanitarian
> convoys, hospitals and first responders who are trying desperately
> to keep people alive."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he was "appalled" by the military
escalation and that the use of bunker-busting bombs "brings the
violence to new depths of barbarity."
Matthew Rycroft, Britain's ambassador to the UN, said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"After five years of conflict, you might think that
> the regime has had its fill of barbarity -- that its sick
> bloodlust against its own people has finally run its course.
>
> But this weekend, the regime and Russia have instead plunged to
> new depths and unleashed a new hell on Aleppo. This isn't
> Pompeii."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Sergei Lavrov said that the Western accusations were an attempt to
deflect attention from last week's accidental bombing of a Syrian army
unit:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I would like to emphasize that the Americans and
> their Western allies, for one thing, want to distract public
> attention from what had happened in Deir Ezzor."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Syrian officials later said that the Deir Ezzor bombing was
"intentional."
Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed outrage at the charges of
barbarism and war crimes directed at Russia:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We note the overall unacceptable tone and rhetoric of
> the representatives of the United Kingdom and the United States,
> which can damage and harm our relations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's particularly ironic for Peskov to worry about damaging and
harming Russia's relations with the West.
Guardian (London) and CNN and Russia Today
Related Articles
- Furious UN envoy Staffan de Mistura excoriates Syria's Bashar al-Assad (19-Aug-2016)
- US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Turkey, Operation Euphrates Shield, Ban Ki-moon, Aleppo,
Iran, Hezbollah, Sergei Lavrov, Samantha Power, Matthew Rycroft,
Sri Lanka, Tamil Tigers,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
