Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

The cumulative House vote for all states except Florida as a predictor of the Presidency. ME-02 is still undecided, so I am treating it as a tossup. Republicans won all three House seats in Nebraska, so I am going with those as percentages.

I'm going to give a wild guess that the District of Columbia votes strongly against Trump.

Quote:Alabama

Republican: 972,927 (58.8%) (1 uncontested race)
Democrats: 675,269 (40.8%)

Alaska

Republican: 128,516 (53.7%)
Democrats: 109,615 (45.8%)

Arizona

Democrats: 999,328 (49.8%)
Republicans: 989,802 (49.3%) (1 uncontested race)

Arkansas

Republicans: 553,536 (62.6%)
Democrats: 310,572 (35.1%)

California

Democrats: 5,041,566 (63.7%) (1 race with no candidate)
Republicans: 2,747,904 (34.7%) (8 races with no candidate)

Colorado

Democrats: 1,252,603 (52.4%)
Republicans: 1,050,938 (44.0%)

Connecticut

Democrats: 811,194 (61.0%)
Republicans: 508,669 (38.3%)

Delaware

Democrats: 227,353 (64.5%)
Republicans: 125,384 (35.5%)

(Florida -- votes are still being found and discovered, so no count. I am treating it as a tossup).

Georgia

Republicans: 1,981,713 (52.4%) (1 uncontested race)
Democrats: 1,802,475 (47.6%) (1 uncontested race)

Hawaii

Democrats: 287,735 (75.3%)
Republicans: 87,296 (22.8%)

Idaho

Republicans: 366,054 (62.0%)
Democrats: 204,020 (34.6%)

Illinois

Democrats: 2,651,012 (60.4%)
Republicans: 1,714,804 (39.1%)

Indiana

Republicans: 1,178,371 (56.6%)
Democrats: 897,632 (43.1%)

Iowa

Democrats: 656,986 (50.4%)
Republicans: 607,827 (46.6%)

Kansas

Republicans: 549,563 (53.9%)
Democrats: 447,134 (43.9%)

Kentucky

Republicans: 935,565 (59.6%)
Democrats: 613,070 (39.0%)

Louisiana

Republicans: 835,603 (57.2%) (1 uncontested race)
Democrats: 553,008 (37.9%)

Maine

Democrats: 328,409 (52.7%)
Republicans: 241,180 (38.7%)

Maryland

Democrats: 1,414,473 (64.9%)
Republicans: 717,945 (32.9%)

Massachusetts

Democrats: 1,529,641 (74.9%)
Republicans: 486,192 (23.8%) (4 uncontested races)

Michigan

Democrats: 2,108,119 (52.0%)
Republicans: 1,826,335 (45.1%) (1 uncontested race)

Minnesota

Democrats: 1,420,669 (55.2%)
Republicans: 1,125,569 (43.7%)

Mississippi

Republicans: 444,092 (50.6%) (1 uncontested race)
Democrats: 369,782 (42.1%)

Missouri

Republicans: 1,318,481 (55.1%)
Democrats: 1,016,096 (42.5%)

Montana

Republicans: 251,611 (51.1%)
Democrats: 227,036 (46.1%)

Nebraska

Republicans: 424,682 (62.5%)
Democrats: 255,053 (37.5%)

Nevada

Democrats: 491,004 (51.1%)
Republicans: 439,401 (45.8%)

New Hampshire

Democrats: 310,320 (54.4%)
Republicans: 249,714 (43.8%)

New Jersey

Democrats: 1,731,037 (59.6%)
Republicans: 1,139,101 (39.2%)

New Mexico

Democrats: 398,753 (58.2%)
Republicans: 262,138 (38.3%)

New York

Democrats: 3,664,970 (66.6%)
Republicans: 1,751,620 (31.8%) (6 uncontested races)

North Carolina

Republicans: 1,830,219 (50.5%)
Democrats: 1,748,018 (48.2%) (1 uncontested race)

North Dakota

Republicans: 192,733 (60.3%)
Democrats: 113,891 (35.6%)

Ohio

Republicans: 2,245,403 (52.3%)
Democrats: 2,019,120 (47.0%)

Oklahoma

Republicans: 730,531 (62.0%)
Democrats: 428,452 (36.3%)

Oregon

Democrats: 1,034,344 (57.4%)
Republicans: 686,952 (38.1%)

Pennsylvania

Democrats: 2,669,469 (54.9%)
Republicans: 2,179,246 (44.8%) (1 uncontested race)

Rhode Island

Democrats: 239,694 (65.0%)
Republicans: 128,831 (35.0%)

South Carolina

Republicans: 927,504 (54.3%)
Democrats: 757,499 (44.3%)

South Dakota

Republicans: 202,673 (60.3%)
Democrats: 121,002 (36.0%)

Tennessee

Republicans: 1,276,040 (59.2%)
Democrats: 843,658 (39.2%)

Texas

Republicans: 4,104,555 (50.4%) (4 uncontested races)
Democrats: 3,824,300 (47.0%)

Utah

Republicans: 510,244 (58.7%)
Democrats: 307,151 (35.4%)

Vermont

Democrats: 188,547 (69.2%)
Republicans: 70,705 (26.0%)

Virginia

Democrats: 1,864,483 (56.3%)
Republicans: 1,407,791 (42.5%) (1 uncontested race)

Washington

Democrats: 1,734,775 (62.8%)
Republicans: 947,374 (34.3%) (2 races with no candidate)

West Virginia

Republicans: 335,791 (58.4%)
Democrats: 232,856 (40.5%)

Wisconsin

Democrats: 1,358,156 (53.1%)
Republicans: 1,171,456 (45.8%) (1 uncontested race)

Wyoming

Republicans: 127,882 (63.7%)
Democrats: 59,929 (29.8%)

Maine 1 is in the southwestern part of the state and Maine 2 is all else.
Nebraska districts are shown 1, 2, and 3 left to right even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2.


Trump edge:

dark blue 10% or more (really dark for 40% or more -- Massachusetts and DC)
middle blue 5-9%
pale blue under 5%
effective tie (1% either way, both approval and disapproval under 50%)
pink under 5%, but disapproval 50% or higher or at least 1%
red 5-10%
dark red 10% or more (really dark for 40% or more 3rd Congressional district of Nebraska)

In this case Florida is treated as a tie because the votes are not all in, and the results of both a gubernatorial and a senatorial election are under dispute.