Trump approval, adults?
38 approve
58 disapprove
(Gallup).
Still horrid.
November 4-10. 2018. Two days before the election, Election Day, and four days after it. That may be the last approval poll of the President that includes any time before the 2018 election.
Republicans did better than Trump approval for this week. Their only good news, and that they flipped Senate seats in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and probably Florida. Democrats flipped seats in Arizona and Nevada.
With this level of approval and Donald Trump on the top of the ballot, the Republicans look from this perspective to have a bad night on November 3, 2000. Democrats led Republicans in total votes for the House and the Senate (but the House total is more reliable because all states had House elections).
Active as voters were in a midterm election, they still fall short of the numbers of a Presidential campaign. No midterm has ever had so many first-time voters in a midterm, and they skewed heavily Democratic. The Millennial vote came out this time, and we can expect it to keep coming out to vote.
Rumor has it that Robert Mueller has restarted the investigation-and-indictment machine. People have started to go to prison for corruption related to the Trump campaign. Rumor also is that Democrats in the House will be looking at hush money that Donald Trump paid to women with whom he had sordid relationships out of either campaign funds or quasi-campaign funds. Tsk, tsk, tsk.
Americans do not like corruption. Among the most notable pols to go down as Republicans is Dana Donaldovich Rohrabacher... well, he might as well have that patronymic middle name as one of the strongest supporters of Vladimir Putin in the House of Representatives.
At least three Republican incumbent Senators look to be sure defeats in 2020 -- Susan Collins (R-ME), Joni Ernst (R-IA), and Cory Gardner (R-CO) who have Hard Right voting records in moderate-to-liberal states whose House totals had a decisive Democratic advantage. Yes, Democrats have one moderate in a not-so-moderate state (Dough Jones, D-AL) who Republicans should clobber so long as they don't nominate Roy Moore again.
Several Senators who came in the 2014 wave will be up for re-election in what will probably be a Democratic wave. I expect the Millennial generation to vote at least as heavily as they did in 2018. It's hard to imagine Republicans having any reserve of new or returning voters to offset the Millennial wave as voters.
I cannot name names, but I can believe that Millennial politicians will come into play. Millennial voters will relate to them. Americans will find their rationality and their promises of teamwork a refreshing alternative to Donald Trump and a raft of right-wing pols.
Sure. Democrats do not have as strong a majority in 2018 (227 to 237) in the House as Republicans did in 2014 (247 House seats)... but gerrymandering loses its effectiveness with time. Things will get harder, and not easier, for Republicans in 2020.
38 approve
58 disapprove
(Gallup).
Still horrid.
November 4-10. 2018. Two days before the election, Election Day, and four days after it. That may be the last approval poll of the President that includes any time before the 2018 election.
Republicans did better than Trump approval for this week. Their only good news, and that they flipped Senate seats in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and probably Florida. Democrats flipped seats in Arizona and Nevada.
With this level of approval and Donald Trump on the top of the ballot, the Republicans look from this perspective to have a bad night on November 3, 2000. Democrats led Republicans in total votes for the House and the Senate (but the House total is more reliable because all states had House elections).
Active as voters were in a midterm election, they still fall short of the numbers of a Presidential campaign. No midterm has ever had so many first-time voters in a midterm, and they skewed heavily Democratic. The Millennial vote came out this time, and we can expect it to keep coming out to vote.
Rumor has it that Robert Mueller has restarted the investigation-and-indictment machine. People have started to go to prison for corruption related to the Trump campaign. Rumor also is that Democrats in the House will be looking at hush money that Donald Trump paid to women with whom he had sordid relationships out of either campaign funds or quasi-campaign funds. Tsk, tsk, tsk.
Americans do not like corruption. Among the most notable pols to go down as Republicans is Dana Donaldovich Rohrabacher... well, he might as well have that patronymic middle name as one of the strongest supporters of Vladimir Putin in the House of Representatives.
At least three Republican incumbent Senators look to be sure defeats in 2020 -- Susan Collins (R-ME), Joni Ernst (R-IA), and Cory Gardner (R-CO) who have Hard Right voting records in moderate-to-liberal states whose House totals had a decisive Democratic advantage. Yes, Democrats have one moderate in a not-so-moderate state (Dough Jones, D-AL) who Republicans should clobber so long as they don't nominate Roy Moore again.
Several Senators who came in the 2014 wave will be up for re-election in what will probably be a Democratic wave. I expect the Millennial generation to vote at least as heavily as they did in 2018. It's hard to imagine Republicans having any reserve of new or returning voters to offset the Millennial wave as voters.
I cannot name names, but I can believe that Millennial politicians will come into play. Millennial voters will relate to them. Americans will find their rationality and their promises of teamwork a refreshing alternative to Donald Trump and a raft of right-wing pols.
Sure. Democrats do not have as strong a majority in 2018 (227 to 237) in the House as Republicans did in 2014 (247 House seats)... but gerrymandering loses its effectiveness with time. Things will get harder, and not easier, for Republicans in 2020.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.