Election 2020

[Marypoza]

(05-19-2019, 06:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Let's see what I think about the keys so far. Switching the colors to contemporary legend.

The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.

Code: blue, false -- favors Democrats without ambiguity.
red, true -- favors the Republican (Trump, or in case something happens to him, Pence)
green -- yet to be decided
purple-- ambiguous and subject to interpretation.

1.    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2.    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3.   Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4.    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5.    Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6.    Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7.    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8.    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9.    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10.    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11.    Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12.   Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13.   Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

5 false, 5 true, 3 undecided.

Comments as needed:
2. Weld has virtually no support in the polls yet, and the Republicans are solidly behind their mob leader. No credible primary challenge exists. Subject to change, but unlikely at this point.
4. There is no 3rd alternative who has stepped up yet, except someone who would take votes away from Democrats (Schultz). Subject to change, but unlikely. Advantage red/Trump.
6. Advantage Trump; the economy equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. I cannot credit Trump with any policy changes, as defined by Lichtman. He said it's an advantage if the president gets passed a major piece of legislation that changes the country or solve major problems. Trump has done nothing. The tax cuts were nothing. Immigrants have increased. His tariff wars have solved nothing so far, and the agreement with Canada and Mexico made no substantial changes to NAFTA. Nothing is likely on the horizon; Trump has no skills in policy.
10-11. Nothing notable either way yet. Trump has pulled out of treaties, but will escape the consequences in the current term for this.
12. Lichtman did not credit Trump as charismatic, so why should I?
13. The best Democratic candidates declined to run. The only two who have any chance are only somewhat charismatic at best; certainly no better than Trump.

-- l beg 2 differ point 13. Bernie is a he'll of a lot more charismatic than the Donald