09-02-2019, 10:58 AM
(Harry Enten)
Poll of the week: A new national Quinnipiac University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg all lead President Donald Trump by significant margins in potential 2020 matchups.
Biden is ahead of Trump by the most (16 points, 54% to 38%), while Buttigeg is up by the least (9 points, 49% to 40%).
What's the point: The Quinnipiac poll was the second probability poll that meets CNN standards and was conducted in August which found Trump down by at least 5 points against all his most likely challengers. In both the Fox News poll out earlier this month and Quinnipiac's latest, he trailed his most likely challenger, Biden, by double-digits. In fact, in an average of all the August polls (those that meet CNN standards and not), Biden was up by a 49% to 39% margin.
Still, it's worth pointing out the historically bad position Trump is in. No incumbent president has ever polled this poorly against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/31/politics/...index.html
Comment: of the two incumbent Presidents who were behind (Obama barely and Carter by what was not then a huge margin) one won and one lost. Carter was about to go into electoral collapse. I see Romney as an unusually-strong challenger to an incumbent President who really was an effective President.
Poll of the week: A new national Quinnipiac University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg all lead President Donald Trump by significant margins in potential 2020 matchups.
Biden is ahead of Trump by the most (16 points, 54% to 38%), while Buttigeg is up by the least (9 points, 49% to 40%).
What's the point: The Quinnipiac poll was the second probability poll that meets CNN standards and was conducted in August which found Trump down by at least 5 points against all his most likely challengers. In both the Fox News poll out earlier this month and Quinnipiac's latest, he trailed his most likely challenger, Biden, by double-digits. In fact, in an average of all the August polls (those that meet CNN standards and not), Biden was up by a 49% to 39% margin.
Still, it's worth pointing out the historically bad position Trump is in. No incumbent president has ever polled this poorly against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/31/politics/...index.html
Comment: of the two incumbent Presidents who were behind (Obama barely and Carter by what was not then a huge margin) one won and one lost. Carter was about to go into electoral collapse. I see Romney as an unusually-strong challenger to an incumbent President who really was an effective President.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.