Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

The Grim Reaper has something to say about the 2020 election:

In the three closest states of the  2016 election that Trump actually won, Democrats so far have a huge edge in new voters.  



You will also notice that Democrats have edges in Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire, which Hillary Clinton barely won. If you are looking for a Trump rebound in Colorado or Virginia,  then think again: it is not happening based on the affiliations of new voters.  The black circles represent deaths of 2016 voters, and in West Virginia, the black circle is larger than the number of new voters. Trump still wins West Virginia

Some other states? I can dispense with Indiana (not likely a swing state, and the sort that is close only in a D landslide), Ohio, and Georgia by saying

(1) that partisan identification is unlikely for new voters, perhaps there is no political benefit from such
(2) that those three states will not decide the election.

Florida? I cannot see the partisan edge, so I expect Florida to be really close in 2020. My cynical view of Florida as a deciding state is that it does not decide how it goes until it either no longer matters or that the Republican state officials decide it for the Republican when the state makes the difference. Gore would have won Florida had some other state made Florida irrelevant by voting D instead of R. Arizona is in about the same position... Eyeballing Iowa gives much the same result.  Neither of those three states will decide the election fir Trump, but any one of those three indicates that the Trump campaign is cooked as thoroughly as someone who dawdled in Pompeii on a certain day in AD 79.

The D edges in Colorado and Virginia are so big that Trump can write those states off early. Between Colorado and Maine I expect to see two fairly-easy R-to-D flips in the Senate.  Norrh Carolina doesn't look great for Trump -- indeed, worse than Arizona, Florida, or Iowa.

Based on the 2016 result as a base for change, Trump will find great barriers to holding onto any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.




Trump is not going to win any state that he lost in 2016; not one of those states will be close.  Texas? Except for California, no state will have so many new voters. The advantage in new voters in Texas is strong D.  New voters in  Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and South Carolina are surprisingly, strongly D... if there are any huge D surprises in those states that Trump won by 10% or more, it will be in one of those four states.   Neither of those four states was close to being close in 2016...

Graphs from the Washington Post

Remember: not one vote cast in 2016 matters in 2020. All that we have at this point is patterns from earlier elections, the 2016 results, demographics, and the voter registration.