Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

As is my wont, I will try to do some analysis of the connection between Obama approval in 2011 and the election of 2012.



The vote share is what is left once third-party nominees and write-ins (especially such political luminaries as "Mickey Mouse", "Darth Vader", "Santa Claus", and "Jesus Christ" are culled out. Assume at this point that the 2020 election will be essentially a binary choice, with no third-party nominee getting more than 2% of the popular vote nationwide. Assume also that there will be no blatant manipulation of the vote for any purpose (it will be far too risky).

You will notice that Obama outperformed his 2011 approval  level in all states that he won and in his barest loss (North Carolina) Other states in which Obama lost seem to fit no pattern at all aside from scattered the whole from not diverging far from 2011 approval polls. There were two states in which Obama's approval rating was at or below 47% that he ended up winning: Colorado and New Hampshire, both of which Obama won by 6% and 10% more than his 2011 polling, respectively. Maybe the 2011 polls understated Obama's chances in those two states. Otherwise the states that Obama lost seem to drift little away from the line in which the approval number of 2011 is equal to the vote share.  Utah is about 8% below Obama's approval there, but one can explain that with Mitt Romney being a Mormon in the Mormon state.  I have typically held that the favorite son effect is real if the politician is seen positively there.


OK, Obama campaigned in no states in which he expected to lose.  Trump will have to campaign in states in which his approval is under 47%.


Approval numbers from October, Morning Consult. Close enough to a year away (November results are not in yet, as November is incomplete)



Assuming that Trump gets the same treatment from approval to vote share as Obama got between November 2011 and 2012 (which is the shakiest part of the assumption, because Trump is not Obama)


Trump will pick up on the average 4% in states in which his approval is 47% or higher. Any state in which his approval is 51% or higher as of now is effectively a gimme, with Trump getting 55% or more of the vote share.

48% to 50% suggest that Trump will win the state by a margin of 4% to 9% Only two states are in this category, but one is Texas.

Any state in which Trump has approval in the 46% or 47% can easily go either way. Such states are in white.  

Either Pennsylvania or Virginia could be close, but the range of possibilities for those two states does not include Trump wins.

Other states are in maroon.  You know what that means.