Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

As if Oklahoma offered any question of how it stands for the 2020  Presidential election: it would go to him even in a loss analogous to those of Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980. It is from early December, but nobody can argue in principle against an unknown pollster about a state that leaves few political questions unanswered.   



Trump has much more of a chance to lose Kansas than Oklahoma. Oklahoma could be his strongest state, and it could be the only one in which he gets 60% of the popular vote. 



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

If you wonder why I cut off the President's chances of getting re-elected at 52% disapproval, it is because Obama never won any state in 2012 that a reputable pollster had his disapproval above 51% at any time. Obama barely won Ohio after having had his approval get to 51% in a Quinnipiac poll.  It is practically impossible to do disapproval once it sets in.  One can win with 48% of the popular vote in the state if such is a plurality, which is iffy... I see President Trump no more effective a campaigner than Obama, which is charitable on my part toward Trump. 

The first poll of any state strictly from 2020 is of New Mexico, and it should be no surprise that Trump has practically no chance of carrying the state in 2020.

Quote:New Mexico: Emerson, Jan. 3-6, 967 RV

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Sanders 59, Trump 41
Buttigieg 55, Trump 45
Biden 54, Trump 46
Warren 54, Trump 46

This is the first statewide poll that I see from 2020, and it is of a state that rarely gets polled (New Mexico). It is almost a month newer than the poll from early December involving Oklahoma. If there is no reasonable doubt that Trump cannot lose Oklahoma, there is far more doubt by that standard that Trump is sure to lose new Mexico. On the fringe of contention in 2016, it won't be close. At this stage, an incumbent does not win re-election when his disapproval is above 51%.   



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54% 
55% or higher

Does anyone have any question that with approval under 40% and disapproval at 54%, Trump is not going to win the Land of Enchantment? 

Nationwide: 

Quote:Ipsos Core Political Data, Jan. 6-7, 1115 adults.  This is usually weekly, but they skipped the last two weeks for the holidays.  

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

Effectively an anticlimax. No meaningful change -- except in the "strongly approve", which at -3 is close to the margin of error. There were no shocking events over the Holiday season (this poll comes from before  the strike on the Iranian general of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, and especially before the President threatened to destroy 52 cultural sites in Iran. A comment: should the vile regime of the ayatollahs disappear, Iran will be an attractive place for tourists with an interest in antiquities to be found nowhere else on Earth; it will be as if a country like Greece "opened up" to share its glorious heritage).  

As low as "strongly approve" was, a 3% drop in the absolute number is about 12% in the category. This suggests that the core support of Donald Trump is eroding.