Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

(01-24-2020, 07:33 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-23-2020, 02:43 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-22-2020, 12:39 PM)David Horn Wrote: If the squad is out in Iowa, you can assume he loses.  The squad can be a positive force in more urban areas, but Iowa is not that … even in the cities.

I wonder who the best surrogates for Sanders would be there.

At this point, it has to be someone not specifically tied to the coasts.  If the squad was a bit less aggressive, they would be a good choice, but they are.  In-your-face isn't a good model for the Midwest -- outside of places like Detroit, Chicago or St. Louis.  Iowa is none of those.

Eric the Green Wrote:

David Horn Wrote:You may need to get your thinking realigned a bit.  Letting the perfect be the enemy of the good guarantees the success of the bad -- truly bad, in this case.  I know you think a lot of Bernie, but no one in the Congress really likes the guy.  He'll be great at rallying the troops, much like DJT does on the other side, but it won't go anywhere.  I don't see even the most progressive members of Congress being that excited about his program.  

And what part of EW's record bother you?  Is it the GOP period, or something more recent?  If it's the former, then keep in mind the rule of converts: they're among the most committed.

One thing is clear. EW is not the candidate who can beat Trump. If you want the good rather than the perfect to win, then Sanders is the guy, not the gal Elizabeth (aka Crusader Rabbit). She just doesn't have it. Since she unloaded on Bernie with her whiny, bitchy remark "Did you call me a liar on national TV?" she has been falling in the polls. She revealed her weakness. For those who like Warren's policies that are not quite perfectly progressive, meaning she might have a better chance than Sanders the "perfect" progressive, consider the fact that Sanders has the candidate skills necessary to beat the Drump. He is an inspiring speaker who gets people behind him. He is strong and energetic, and very straightforward in his care for the people. He means what he says and says what he means. This is attractive to voters, while the wonky and pedantic Warren is not.

My concern with Sanders is not 2020.  It's 2024.  He can win.  Can he govern?

The issue there is, can we really afford 4 more years of Trump? Can we afford a right-wing supreme court? And 4 more years of pollution and climate change denial? We may get them anyway. He may be removed before his second term is up. But then, will congress and the senate be able to take over and restart progress in 2023, or will Pence and the Senate be able to stop it?

Sanders can govern a whole lot better than Trump can, that's for sure. And no-one can beat Trump in 2020 except Biden or Sanders. No-one, except maybe himself. And that's a long shot for 2020.

Maryposa made an excellent post. In fact, yes, Sanders can govern. He will fight for what he knows is right. But he knows clearly and has said that he would not be a dictator, or try to be. He does know how to work with others in the Senate. Hillary is wrong on that. As feisty as he can be as a fighter for justice, he is a gentleman, not an egotist. He genuinely cares, and this comes through.

But it's possible that if the Democrats win in 2020, they could lose in 2024. There are signs of this (the new moon before election favors the challenger). If a Democrat wins in 2020, it will be because (s)he was able to beat both of the two main indicators on my system. That has not happened ever, except in one very-maverick and transformational year: 1892, year of the Neptune-Pluto conjunction; the year one civilization ended and another began. Pretty rough stuff for an incumbent. The Roman Republic and the Roman Empire both fell to it, and within a year of its exact date. The Tang Dynasty fell to it, and so did Richard II, and Bismarck too. So it was a big deal, and nothing like it will happen in 2024.

But Democrats could win in 2024 if their candidate's horoscope score is much higher than the Republican's. Or perhaps a 3rd Party will emerge and win. Democrats should once again be advised to choose Mitch Landrieu or Terry McAuliffe as strong candidates if Sanders bows out after 1 term, and not anyone running this year. The 2020 field is a weak one on all sides.

Trump is himself a big anomaly. He could defy the system that predicts that he might win, and perhaps the Lichtman Keys too, because he is the worst president ever, the most unfit and the most unqualified. And this anomaly might affect 2024 too. The fact is, Republicans have no other candidate with a good score on the horizon-- except maybe Tom Cotton, the young senator from Arkansas (15-9); but a strong-scoring Democratic candidate like Landrieu could still beat him too. That's unless you want to count Darth Vader himself (Steve Bannon, 10-5).