Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

(01-27-2020, 01:45 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(01-24-2020, 04:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The issue there is, can we really afford 4 more years of Trump? Can we afford a right-wing supreme court? And 4 more years of pollution and climate change denial? We may get them anyway. He may be removed before his second term is up. But then, will congress and the senate be able to take over and restart progress in 2023, or will Pence and the Senate be able to stop it?

Sanders can govern a whole lot better than Trump can, that's for sure. And no-one can beat Trump in 2020 except Biden or Sanders. No-one, except maybe himself. And that's a long shot for 2020.

Maryposa made an excellent post. In fact, yes, Sanders can govern. He will fight for what he knows is right. But he knows clearly and has said that he would not be a dictator, or try to be. He does know how to work with others in the Senate. Hillary is wrong on that. As feisty as he can be as a fighter for justice, he is a gentleman, not an egotist. He genuinely cares, and this comes through.

But it's possible that if the Democrats win in 2020, they could lose in 2024. There are signs of this (the new moon before election favors the challenger). If a Democrat wins in 2020, it will be because (s)he was able to beat both of the two main indicators on my system. That has not happened ever, except in one very-maverick and transformational year: 1892, year of the Neptune-Pluto conjunction; the year one civilization ended and another began. Pretty rough stuff for an incumbent. The Roman Republic and the Roman Empire both fell to it, and within a year of its exact date. The Tang Dynasty fell to it, and so did Richard II, and Bismarck too. So it was a big deal, and nothing like it will happen in 2024.

But Democrats could win in 2024 if their candidate's horoscope score is much higher than the Republican's. Or perhaps a 3rd Party will emerge and win. Democrats should once again be advised to choose Mitch Landrieu or Terry McAuliffe as strong candidates if Sanders boggestsggws out after 1 term, and not anyone running this year. The 2020 field is a weak one on all sides.

Trump is himself a big anomaly. He could defy the system that predicts that he might win, and perhaps the Lichtman Keys too, because he is the worst president ever, the most unfit and the most unqualified. And this anomaly might affect 2024 too. The fact is, Republicans have no other candidate with a good score on the horizon-- except maybe Tom Cotton, the young senator from Arkansas (15-9); but a strong-scoring Democratic candidate like Landrieu could still beat him too. That's unless you want to count Darth Vader himself (Steve Bannon, 10-5).

I think it's going to be hard for any Democrat to win as the progressive system begins to crumble. Landrieu might have a chance to win  if he switches parties by then.

This article suggests that the Trump Presidency is doomed for reasons other than his character and conduct, and that Barack Obama is a strong portent of what follows:

 https://medium.com/@mishaley/how-history...04e6ac19bd

Trump is the end of the line for the profits-first ideology of Ronald Reagan. 

Here is the thread:

http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid49018

It isn't the progressive system that is crumbling. Trump incompetence, callowness, and corruption apparently figure less in this model than do demographic change, the generational cycle, and the exhaustion of an ideological agenda. Such tendencies ensured that even Jimmy Carter, one of the smartest and most upright of Presidents, could not counteract the trend. Paradoxically, someone much like Carter in personality and character as well as ideology could take the role of a Transformer who reshapes American politics as President as did Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, or Ronald Reagan. Reagan was apparently right for his time, but his time is over.