01-28-2020, 01:26 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2020, 04:00 PM by Eric the Green.)
Bernie is surging and cutting into Biden's lead, although Biden's numbers remain steady. Bloomberg, Yang and Klobuchar have been slowly rising, while the bottom 4 are falling and may not survive Iowa. After Iowa we may have 8 candidates that will make my database, most for the first time including Biden (Sanders is in it already, of course). In this group of 8 the proportion of favorable to unfavorable-scoring candidates would remain at 3/4, although a few with positive scores will join my list of dropouts. Bennet has had some fundraising success, but his polls remain low including in IA and NH.
Today's realclearpolitics averages:
Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden28.7
Sanders23.3
Warren14.9
Bloomberg8.0
Buttigieg7.0
Yang4.9
Klobuchar3.9
Steyer1.9
potential dropouts after Iowa?:
Gabbard0.9
Bennet0.7
Delaney0.3
Patrick0.3
Biden +5.4
California Democratic Primary Berkeley IGS Sanders 26, Biden 15, Warren 20, Buttigieg 7, Bloomberg 6, Klobuchar 5, Yang 4, Steyer 2
Sanders +6
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Emerson Sanders 30, Biden 21, Buttigieg 10, Warren 11, Klobuchar 13, Yang 5, Steyer 5, Gabbard 5
Sanders +9
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 19, Biden 25, Buttigieg 18, Warren 13, Klobuchar 6, Yang 3, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1,
Biden +6
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Herald/FPU Sanders 29, Biden 22, Buttigieg 10, Warren 16, Klobuchar 5, Gabbard 3, Yang 1, Steyer 0, Bennet 2
Sanders +7
Utah Democratic Primary Salt Lake Tribune/Suffolk Sanders 27, Warren 14, Biden 12, Bloomberg 10, Buttigieg 5, Yang 5, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 1, Gabbard 1
Sanders +13
Edit to Add: The quinnipiac national poll came out after the above averages were posted, and changed them a bit. Here's the Q poll:
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Biden 26, Sanders 21, Warren 15, Bloomberg 8, Klobuchar 7, Buttigieg 6, Yang 3, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1, Bennet 0, Delaney 0
Today's realclearpolitics averages:
Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden28.7
Sanders23.3
Warren14.9
Bloomberg8.0
Buttigieg7.0
Yang4.9
Klobuchar3.9
Steyer1.9
potential dropouts after Iowa?:
Gabbard0.9
Bennet0.7
Delaney0.3
Patrick0.3
Biden +5.4
California Democratic Primary Berkeley IGS Sanders 26, Biden 15, Warren 20, Buttigieg 7, Bloomberg 6, Klobuchar 5, Yang 4, Steyer 2
Sanders +6
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Emerson Sanders 30, Biden 21, Buttigieg 10, Warren 11, Klobuchar 13, Yang 5, Steyer 5, Gabbard 5
Sanders +9
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 19, Biden 25, Buttigieg 18, Warren 13, Klobuchar 6, Yang 3, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1,
Biden +6
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Herald/FPU Sanders 29, Biden 22, Buttigieg 10, Warren 16, Klobuchar 5, Gabbard 3, Yang 1, Steyer 0, Bennet 2
Sanders +7
Utah Democratic Primary Salt Lake Tribune/Suffolk Sanders 27, Warren 14, Biden 12, Bloomberg 10, Buttigieg 5, Yang 5, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 1, Gabbard 1
Sanders +13
Edit to Add: The quinnipiac national poll came out after the above averages were posted, and changed them a bit. Here's the Q poll:
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Biden 26, Sanders 21, Warren 15, Bloomberg 8, Klobuchar 7, Buttigieg 6, Yang 3, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1, Bennet 0, Delaney 0