Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

(02-12-2020, 12:53 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-12-2020, 06:12 AM)Marypoza Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 11:18 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 10:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

CNN just declared Sanders the winner of NH primary.

-- a whole lotta news outlets declared him the winner

But here's the rub.  He came-in at 26%, Buttigieg at 24% and Klobuchar at 20%.  Now, the not-Bernie Two are not really in the same lane, but are closer to each other than either is to Bernie.  Going forward, Bernie seems to (be) unencumbered by Warren (fading away fast) and the other two have the center-left to fight over … until Bloomberg shows-up.  If Bernie isn't part of the fray, he gets less press attention (everyone assumes he runs alone in his lane) while the others generate a horse race worth reporting.  Add to that, Bloomberg is already piling-on the paid advertising.  I'm not sure how that plays yet, but having no one to contend with may actually be a major negative … or not.  Who knows this year.

Biden may still win South Carolina, according to reports, and he is also contending in Nevada, which is more latino. Warren is still in it too. I don't see Klobuchar doing as well elsewhere either. The national polls have not switched that far yet from where they were. 

today's averages:
Democratic Presidential Nomination

• Sanders23.6
  
• Biden19.2
  
• Bloomberg14.2
  
• Warren12.4
  
• Buttigieg10.6
  
• Klobuchar4.6
  
• Yang3.0
  
• Steyer1.8
  

Sanders +4.4

So we have 2 progressives, and 4 moderates: Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden and Bloomberg. But Buttigieg is more progressive than the other three, and got voters in NH across all the various ideological and demographic categories. He did not win any group, but did well in all of them, according to exit poll reports.

Bloomberg is moving up well in the real clear average, passing Warren, but last time I saw a poll for California, where he is advertising heavily, he hadn't moved his poll numbers there at all. If he doesn't do well in CA on Super Tuesday, how can he compete?

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (March 3)
High Point
Biden 24, Sanders 20, Bloomberg 16, Warren 11, Buttigieg 8, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 4, Gabbard 2
Biden +4

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Economist/YouGov
Sanders 22, Biden 18, Bloomberg 12, Warren 15, Buttigieg 10, Klobuchar 7, Yang 2, Steyer 1, Gabbard 4
Sanders +4

CNN reports that Deval Patrick has dropped out.