Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs data for all fifty states, with interpolation for DC and  intrapolation for ME-02 and NE-02. Not to be confused with other polling.  

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...oomIn=true



Trump approval by state:

55% or higher
51-54%
50% or under, with Trump ahead

exact ties -- white

45-50% or under, Trump behind with 51% or lesser disapproval
disapproval 52-55%
disapproval 56% or higher
DC -- not shown in Civiqs data, but don't be stupid -- 90% red

If you are wondering about Maine -- Trump approval is at 37% statewide and disapproval is 60%, which would be impossible if ME-02 weren't significantly red. Nebraska is at 53% approval and 44% disapproval -- but NE-02 (Greater Omaha) is about 12% more D than Nebraska at-large, so I must color it at the least a pale shade of red. NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha, including Lincoln) is slightly more R-leaning than the state as a whole, but enough to put it in the darkest shade of blue. NE-03 (central and western Nebraska, including Grand Island and Scottsbluff,  is one of the most Republican-leaning congressional districts in America.  

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Unless really-strange things happen between now and November, Trump will win everything in which his approval is above 50%, and win anything where his approval is at or above 55% by double digits. The distinction in effect in states with approvals over 55% is moot because the difference between 55% and 70% in any chance of winning or losing or in the distribution of electoral votes is of no significance.

I see Ohio and Texas potentially contested in ways that Indiana and Colorado won't be. There are no ties, but any state in pink will also be contested based on polling data. I see an incumbent having a very difficult time winning any state in which his disapproval is above 50%, with 51% still within the range of possible winning but anything above that -- deep trouble. Any state which shows disapproval above 52% will take miracles to win. Disapproval at or above 55%? That is the zone of double-digit losses. The difference between getting 55% of the popular vote and 80% is nil in electoral votes (unless the state is Maine or Nebraska).

I notice that Civics now shows Nevada and Virginia spiraling out of reach for Trump. In Nevada, Republicans just don't have the votes to counteract those in Greater Las Vegas. Virginia may be fairly liberal on social issues and economics -- but arch-conservative on defense and foreign policy. On defense and foreign policy, Barack Obama was the arch-conservative and Donald Trump is about what the Nixon campaign said that George McGovern would be. This may be showing up in Georgia and North Carolina, both of which have a huge military presence.