06-01-2020, 10:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-01-2020, 11:38 PM by Eric the Green.)
What are the Keys saying now about Trump vs. Biden?
The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
False: Biden wins this key
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
True, favors Trump
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
True, favors trump
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
True, Trump wins this key
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
False: Biden wins this key
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
False, favors Biden
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
False, favors Biden. A tax cut and refusing to abide by laws on immigrations is not a change in national policy. Tax cuts for the rich is established policy since 1981. And his tarriff policy resulted in no major changes.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
False, this key now has turned in favor of Biden
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
False, Biden wins this key
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
True, no major failure. Trump wins this key
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
False, his only success was to finish Obama's war on the IS. Biden wins this key
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
False, favors Biden
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
True, favors Trump
As I figure it, Biden now has 8 Keys in his favor, and Trump has 5. I don't see change in this score as very likely. He has no skill in foreign policy, or in any policy for that matter, so he is unlikely to change any keys. If unrest dies down and doesn't recur, Trump could regain Key #8. But he has not, and will not, do anything to change it. Incumbency, party loyalty and the personal weaknesses of his opponent are his only assets in the race.
He does have a slight advantage in the astrology indicators, but there are enough caveats in these that he can't count on them.
This wikipedia summary of the Keys says it predicts the popular vote, and Trump has an advantage in the electoral college. As I remember it, this distinction meant he called the 2000 election incorrectly, since the Keys predicted Gore but he won only the popular vote and Bush won the electoral college. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote and Trump won the electoral college, but Lichtman predicted Trump would win.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_t...hite_House
My horoscope scores and new moon indicator were correct in both cases, in predicting both the electoral and popular vote. But I had not developed my system in 2000, and at that time I thought Gore would win. I also predicted Hillary would win because of other factors, and I may have had the wrong chart for her. But the scores and new moon are the main indicators that I use, and they always favored Trump in 2016. This time, they both favor Trump, but also with caveats.
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html
Obviously, the Republican advantage today in the electoral college is great, and that makes prediction more difficult in a divided country.
Lichtman was not ready to call the keys a few months ago. He did not call Key 7 against Trump.
" "There were four keys solidly locked in against the president" prior to the outbreak, Lichtman explained. "It takes six to predict defeat. But this was before [the pandemic]. Key 1: Party mandate. Key 9: Scandal. Key 11: Foreign/military success. Key 12: incumbent charisma. That's four false keys locked in." "
https://www.salon.com/2020/03/27/politic...ronavirus/
Another analysis (this author called Key 7 against Trump):
https://www.nationofchange.org/2020/05/1...ey-states/
"To win, Trump must get 6 or fewer negative keys. He had that at the end of 2019 (The only likely negatives were 1, 7, 9, 12). But with the advent of COVID-19 and its impact on social stability and the economy, there are negatives on 5, 8 and 11 (there was no major success in foreign or military affairs)."
Here is another good analysis of the Keys
https://soapboxie.com/us-politics/Predic...rn-in-2020
This one agrees with my analysis, but keeps keys 5, 6 and 8 uncertain at this time. He gives the Democrats a slight edge as of now, because those 3 keys are not looking too bright for Trump now.
The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
False: Biden wins this key
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
True, favors Trump
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
True, favors trump
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
True, Trump wins this key
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
False: Biden wins this key
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
False, favors Biden
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
False, favors Biden. A tax cut and refusing to abide by laws on immigrations is not a change in national policy. Tax cuts for the rich is established policy since 1981. And his tarriff policy resulted in no major changes.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
False, this key now has turned in favor of Biden
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
False, Biden wins this key
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
True, no major failure. Trump wins this key
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
False, his only success was to finish Obama's war on the IS. Biden wins this key
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
False, favors Biden
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
True, favors Trump
As I figure it, Biden now has 8 Keys in his favor, and Trump has 5. I don't see change in this score as very likely. He has no skill in foreign policy, or in any policy for that matter, so he is unlikely to change any keys. If unrest dies down and doesn't recur, Trump could regain Key #8. But he has not, and will not, do anything to change it. Incumbency, party loyalty and the personal weaknesses of his opponent are his only assets in the race.
He does have a slight advantage in the astrology indicators, but there are enough caveats in these that he can't count on them.
This wikipedia summary of the Keys says it predicts the popular vote, and Trump has an advantage in the electoral college. As I remember it, this distinction meant he called the 2000 election incorrectly, since the Keys predicted Gore but he won only the popular vote and Bush won the electoral college. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote and Trump won the electoral college, but Lichtman predicted Trump would win.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_t...hite_House
My horoscope scores and new moon indicator were correct in both cases, in predicting both the electoral and popular vote. But I had not developed my system in 2000, and at that time I thought Gore would win. I also predicted Hillary would win because of other factors, and I may have had the wrong chart for her. But the scores and new moon are the main indicators that I use, and they always favored Trump in 2016. This time, they both favor Trump, but also with caveats.
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html
Obviously, the Republican advantage today in the electoral college is great, and that makes prediction more difficult in a divided country.
Lichtman was not ready to call the keys a few months ago. He did not call Key 7 against Trump.
" "There were four keys solidly locked in against the president" prior to the outbreak, Lichtman explained. "It takes six to predict defeat. But this was before [the pandemic]. Key 1: Party mandate. Key 9: Scandal. Key 11: Foreign/military success. Key 12: incumbent charisma. That's four false keys locked in." "
https://www.salon.com/2020/03/27/politic...ronavirus/
Another analysis (this author called Key 7 against Trump):
https://www.nationofchange.org/2020/05/1...ey-states/
"To win, Trump must get 6 or fewer negative keys. He had that at the end of 2019 (The only likely negatives were 1, 7, 9, 12). But with the advent of COVID-19 and its impact on social stability and the economy, there are negatives on 5, 8 and 11 (there was no major success in foreign or military affairs)."
Here is another good analysis of the Keys
https://soapboxie.com/us-politics/Predic...rn-in-2020
This one agrees with my analysis, but keeps keys 5, 6 and 8 uncertain at this time. He gives the Democrats a slight edge as of now, because those 3 keys are not looking too bright for Trump now.