08-06-2020, 03:50 PM
I see Trump's electoral map stabilizing in a zone of 125 to 218 electoral votes, at best (for Trump) 51 electoral votes short of a tie that would put the decision between state delegations in the House, and 52 electoral votes short of an outright win. (Quibble: Trump seems to be losing ME-02, which is one electoral vote).
Although it is possible for states to swing more than 10% from one election to the next, such does not happen often. The chance that Biden picks off a state like Alaska, Missouri, Montana, or South Carolina is small. I doubt that Biden will put much effort in campaigning in these states when he can finish Trump off in states that clinch for him. Maybe if Trump makes a quixotic effort to win a state like Oregon or New Jersey he loses both states -- and something that he really needs, such as Texas.
This said, political realignments begin with blowout landslides.
Although it is possible for states to swing more than 10% from one election to the next, such does not happen often. The chance that Biden picks off a state like Alaska, Missouri, Montana, or South Carolina is small. I doubt that Biden will put much effort in campaigning in these states when he can finish Trump off in states that clinch for him. Maybe if Trump makes a quixotic effort to win a state like Oregon or New Jersey he loses both states -- and something that he really needs, such as Texas.
This said, political realignments begin with blowout landslides.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.