Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

(08-13-2020, 01:21 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-13-2020, 12:58 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Biden going the affirmative action route limited his VP choices. In the short-run, it may help. In the long run, 4 years from now, it means an unskilled candidate has a leg up for the nomination, and therefore likely a Republican takeover after just 4 years of a centrist trying to fix a country that needs desperately to spend 8 years or more going further left.

Not sure of that analysis.  The conservatives seem to be split into three.  You have the Trump base which used to hold a good number of votes but are going down with Trump.  You have the establishment that has elitist ties and cannot get a candidate though the primaries without the base.  You have the Republican Voters Against Trump,  Lincoln Project and VoteVets who might have a vision of conservatives as they should have been, without the elitist or racist ties.

I am not sure if the fight for the remnants of the Republican Party will be successfully over in two or four years, or if the winner will have the clout it once had.  The progressives lost dominance in Nixon's time as there were more racist and wannabe elitist votes than worker and minority votes.  Granted it was close.  The see saw between parties was in great part trying to balance helping the workers against hurting minorities.  If you tried to do one, the people in the middle would vote for the other.  

That possibly is not true anymore.  COVID and Black Lives Matter could shift voters towards respecting the science, solving problems, and to remove systematic racism.  Maybe.  I hope.

Eventually the conservatives have the potential to resurface.  If nothing else, there will eventually be another unraveling.  The Democratic tendency to spend money to solve problems will eventually be overdone and the national mood will shift.  But in the meantime the Republicans have much regrouping to do.

The Lincoln Project and other non-trumpers do not amount to much as a percentage of the Republican voters. Trump commands well over 90% of his party and they are still enthusiastic about their dear leader. I would not distinguish too much between the trumpists and the "establishment." Trump represents the establishment, and the nonsense about his being a populist who appeals to the angry is just window dressing. I have very little confidence that the Republicans will regroup any time soon. They remain dedicated to their trickle-down economics and, whether in the closet or out, their racist prejudices and fears and their superstitions and conspiracy theories.

Shifts happen and the pendulum swings, whether deserved or not. That's the way things go. Conservatives find a leader or a slogan to deceive the people for a while. But with Harris on the ticket, the danger is great for another Republican resurgence just at the most decisive time in the history of the world, the year 2025. If no-one steps up who can be a great leader to challenge Harris, the results will be tragic to say the least. Another near-fascist Republican is likely to take over, because our 4T will NOT be over. Likely a he, perhaps Tom Cotton, he will be able to crush any left revolt and consolidate the oligarchy for generations. The USA will officially be a banana republic. It remains to be seen whether America will heed my warning, and for Democrats to choose another better leader in 2024. Or we are in real trouble again. And 2024 is tomorrow.