08-21-2020, 05:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-21-2020, 11:13 PM by Eric the Green.)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
August 21 poll averages
Swing states are slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago. The national average for Biden is slightly higher now, but there has not been any Biden Bump yet. Meanwhile Biden's rising national score seems to come from California and maybe some other blue states, because the averages for the swing states keep swinging slightly away from him.
UPDATE: checking later in the day, it seems some states do seem to show Biden picking up steam a bit since yesterday.
National Biden +8.6
Arizona Biden +4.3
Colorado Biden +14.0
Florida Biden +5.9
Georgia Trump +0.7
Iowa Trump +1.0
Kansas Trump +8.6
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +5.4
Missouri Trump +5.2
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +7.4
New Hampshire Biden +8.9
North Carolina Biden +1.0
Ohio Trump +0.2
Pennsylvania Biden +6.0
South Carolina Trump +6.2
Texas Trump +1.6
Utah Trump +10.9
Wisconsin Biden +6.8
California: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...alifornia/
The national poll average may influence how they are figuring their state averages.
I expect Trump will rally his base and get an up to 2% boost in his numbers, if the polls are accurate. There are a few polls around like Rasmussen that are as dishonest in favor of Trump as the Republican officials are. I don't expect higher than 2% because Trump's disapproval rating has been as high as 56%, so I don't expect them to return to Trump, but only to the undecided column. The percentage in favor of Biden could fall more than 2% though, if a bit of Biden's support moves into the undecided column.
I was leaning toward finally predicting a Biden victory, encouraged by the polls and the Lichtman Keys. The one-year Jupiter-Saturn conjunction after the zero-year election always puts the Establishment on a new track, even if the party in power wins. But even then, the party in power wins only if one party has gained a habitual favor. In 1940, FDR had the nation hard-wired for him and his party in the middle of a severe 4T. The civil war boosted the Republicans in 1880 and 1900, and they basically held the White House until that next 4T began. And in 1820 there was only one party anyway. And even in 1880 and 1900, an immediate assassination sent the Establishment on a new path anyway even without a change in party power. And in 1940, the world war did the same.
My two basic prediction methods, however, predict a Trump victory. But this is either marginal or comes with important caveats. The horoscope scores, which are close between Trump (9-4) and Biden (14-7), are in general not entirely fixed, but being mostly-empirically based, they shift a little bit based on each election. If Biden wins and Trump loses, a few of the planetary aspects that determine the scores in their charts are now marginal enough in their advantage or disadvantage that the scores between Trump and Biden could even out. That awaits further calculations and revisions I intend to make after the 2020 election.
The new moon before the election method favors the incumbent too, but Uranus square the Ascendant from below in the new moon chart has been a powerful signal of a fall from power, and it happens again in 2020, as it did in 2016, reversing the indicator.
But Biden's strength and his number boosts continue to come more from the coasts rather than the heartland. It won't take much to build back the blue wall in the upper midwest, but it won't take much for it to stay down either. If national numbers fall below 3 or even 4%, the election there will be close and Trump will be able to cheat or contest the election. The gap between the popular and electoral vote will be greater. Every vote is important even if Biden is ahead. And if the Senate elections do not also go blue in Maine, North Carolina and Montana, at least, a Biden administration will accomplish little.
It is still uncertain whether Biden can win, and even if he does, whether he will get progress moving again or whether his successor can win. If it's Harris who carries the mantle in 2024, the Republicans will return to power and keep the 4T going on into the 2030s.
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html
August 21 poll averages
Swing states are slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago. The national average for Biden is slightly higher now, but there has not been any Biden Bump yet. Meanwhile Biden's rising national score seems to come from California and maybe some other blue states, because the averages for the swing states keep swinging slightly away from him.
UPDATE: checking later in the day, it seems some states do seem to show Biden picking up steam a bit since yesterday.
National Biden +8.6
Arizona Biden +4.3
Colorado Biden +14.0
Florida Biden +5.9
Georgia Trump +0.7
Iowa Trump +1.0
Kansas Trump +8.6
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +5.4
Missouri Trump +5.2
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +7.4
New Hampshire Biden +8.9
North Carolina Biden +1.0
Ohio Trump +0.2
Pennsylvania Biden +6.0
South Carolina Trump +6.2
Texas Trump +1.6
Utah Trump +10.9
Wisconsin Biden +6.8
California: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...alifornia/
The national poll average may influence how they are figuring their state averages.
I expect Trump will rally his base and get an up to 2% boost in his numbers, if the polls are accurate. There are a few polls around like Rasmussen that are as dishonest in favor of Trump as the Republican officials are. I don't expect higher than 2% because Trump's disapproval rating has been as high as 56%, so I don't expect them to return to Trump, but only to the undecided column. The percentage in favor of Biden could fall more than 2% though, if a bit of Biden's support moves into the undecided column.
I was leaning toward finally predicting a Biden victory, encouraged by the polls and the Lichtman Keys. The one-year Jupiter-Saturn conjunction after the zero-year election always puts the Establishment on a new track, even if the party in power wins. But even then, the party in power wins only if one party has gained a habitual favor. In 1940, FDR had the nation hard-wired for him and his party in the middle of a severe 4T. The civil war boosted the Republicans in 1880 and 1900, and they basically held the White House until that next 4T began. And in 1820 there was only one party anyway. And even in 1880 and 1900, an immediate assassination sent the Establishment on a new path anyway even without a change in party power. And in 1940, the world war did the same.
My two basic prediction methods, however, predict a Trump victory. But this is either marginal or comes with important caveats. The horoscope scores, which are close between Trump (9-4) and Biden (14-7), are in general not entirely fixed, but being mostly-empirically based, they shift a little bit based on each election. If Biden wins and Trump loses, a few of the planetary aspects that determine the scores in their charts are now marginal enough in their advantage or disadvantage that the scores between Trump and Biden could even out. That awaits further calculations and revisions I intend to make after the 2020 election.
The new moon before the election method favors the incumbent too, but Uranus square the Ascendant from below in the new moon chart has been a powerful signal of a fall from power, and it happens again in 2020, as it did in 2016, reversing the indicator.
But Biden's strength and his number boosts continue to come more from the coasts rather than the heartland. It won't take much to build back the blue wall in the upper midwest, but it won't take much for it to stay down either. If national numbers fall below 3 or even 4%, the election there will be close and Trump will be able to cheat or contest the election. The gap between the popular and electoral vote will be greater. Every vote is important even if Biden is ahead. And if the Senate elections do not also go blue in Maine, North Carolina and Montana, at least, a Biden administration will accomplish little.
It is still uncertain whether Biden can win, and even if he does, whether he will get progress moving again or whether his successor can win. If it's Harris who carries the mantle in 2024, the Republicans will return to power and keep the 4T going on into the 2030s.
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html