08-25-2020, 06:05 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-25-2020, 07:02 PM by Eric the Green.)
(08-25-2020, 12:59 PM)CH86 Wrote: Nope, Trump will win in a landslide, although the details will be different than 2016. The only group biden may make gains with compared to 2016 is boomers. However this will be more than balanced out by Trump making massive gains among Xers, Millennials and Gen-Zers. Trump May very well outright win the Latino vote and under 50 vote and up to 35 percent of Black Men. Biden will only Get about 55 percent of Black Men and somewhere between 78 and 82 percent of black women (By comparison Hillary won 80 and 95 percent respectively).
Cumulatively Trump will make massive gains compared to 2016 with every group except Boomers and Black women (and even here Trump will chip off some of the younger voters to him).
You have a lot of ground to make up in order for your prediction to be true. Here's an article today about the election in Texas.
A Public Policy poll shows Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a one-point lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, a state that has voted Republican for president every year since Ronald Reagan started a winning streak in 1980.
The poll of 764 registered voters surveyed Friday and Saturday following the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention had 48% voting for Biden and 47% for Trump, according to USA Today, which obtained an early copy of the results scheduled for a Tuesday release.
Trump won Texas by 9 percentage points in 2016.
The poll, which had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, was similar to other polls which showed a closely contested race in Texas, although most others had Trump in the lead. A breakdown of the methodology of the Public Police survey was not disclosed in USA Today's story.
The Public Policy poll said nearly two-thirds of independents gave Trump low job-approval numbers, which contradicted somewhat with other recent polls. A CBS/YouGov poll released earlier Monday that showed the president with an 11-point lead over Biden, while The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed "swing" voters gave Trump a 10-point edge.
The Public Policy poll also showed 67% of white Texans planned to vote for Trump. While only 16% of Hispanics said they approve of Trump's job performance, he (got) support from 20% polled. Among Blacks, only 4% planned to vote for Trump.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/texas-...01041xuwe8
The generational divide is racially-driven, according to this report linked below by William H. Frey. Boomers and Silents created the backlash that elected Trump, after non-white youth created the election of Obama. Such gaps will continue. But as older white voters realize that programs that assist them depend on prosperous younger generations, support for candidates like Biden may grow among them.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenu...-politics/
(quote)
The generational confrontation came to a head during the just-concluded decade, epitomized by the presidential transition from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Obama, the nation’s first African American president, received solid support from voters under 45 and racial minority voters, signaling the rising political power of a younger, diverse America.
In a not-so-hidden backlash, white, working-class baby boomers and their seniors were the core constituency that subsequently elected Trump, who preyed upon their fears of a changing America with messages of nostalgia, isolationism, immigrant deportation, and rants against political correctness.
In his first three years in office, Trump’s administration has done much to curtail programs that benefit younger families—health care, benefits to immigrant children, public education, housing assistance, and many other social supports. And, alongside a Republican-controlled Congress, it has handcuffed future spending on such programs with irresponsible tax cuts, virtually guaranteeing ever-larger budget deficits.
Younger generations—millennials and Gen Zers—are strongly supportive of issues that would positively impact their futures: greater racial justice and inclusion, more favorable treatment of immigrants, stronger environmental protection, and effective gun control. But policies that support such measures are low on the priority list for Trump’s aging base......
The only part of America’s white population that will grow appreciably in the 2020s will be those of retirement age—increasing 23% over the next 10 years. This bulging, boomer-driven group will become increasingly dependent on a much slower-growing (2%) and rapidly diversifying labor force to support the federal programs that will benefit them, such as Social Security and Medicare. It is therefore vital for these boomers’ own interests to encourage government programs that benefit young families and future workers, including education and job training, Head Start, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, children’s nutrition, and child care assistance. Such programs will especially help children of color—many of them first- and second-generation Americans—who will soon contribute to our young adult and labor force populations.....
If the political division between ages and races continues into the next decade, our social conflicts are sure to intensify. In 2030, the 50-and-under population—comprised of millennials and Gen Zers—is projected to be less than half white, nearly a quarter Latino or Hispanic, 14% Black, and 11% Asian American and other races, while the 65-and-older population will still over 70% white. Today’s oft-derisive and cynical cries of “white privilege” and “OK, boomer!” would likely escalate, and be more than justified if older whites continue to horde and benefit from the federal largesse while progressive polices to support criminal justice, immigrant rights, and racial equity are held at bay........
But these racial and generational identity politics do not have to continue. It is possible that older whites will eventually hold more generous attitudes toward today’s highly diverse younger generations as they age and disperse across the country into suburbs, exurbs, and currently red states, while the children and grandchildren of baby boomers marry those in other races. Millennials themselves can be positive role models as they age and take on leadership positions in business, politics, and public life, serving as a bridge generation between the boomer-dominated nation we have been and the multihued nation we are becoming.
Most importantly, if we are to keep our strength as a country, leaders of political parties and officials at all levels of government need to help their constituents understand the value of co-generational dependency between the old and the young. If this occurs, and I hope it does, the 2020s can be a decade of improved harmony and economic prosperity for Americans of all ages and races.