08-29-2020, 01:02 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2020, 01:39 PM by Eric the Green.)
Could Trump pull off another upset?
https://www.axios.com/trump-upset-biden-...j7rWd8UxaM
The article makes good points, but I don't think the Republicans can make it stick that Biden and "Democrat-run cities" are causing or stoking the riots, such as they are, or that Trump's image is improving when it has been stuck at 41-42% for years.
The minimum scenario for Trump to win: recover Florida and North Carolina, but not AZ; keep the other tossup states, and the Maine and Nebraska districts, but lose in Minnesota and WI, and take PA. Win in the House of Reps. since they vote by state and not by individual membership.
The same scenario would work if Trump recovers AZ and keeps WI, but loses PA, in which case he wins outright 270 to 268. In other words, keep the states he won in 2016, and win just one of the three former blue-wall rust-belt states in won in 2016. But if Trump loses NE district 2, but wins only WI of the three, in this scenario, then the House decides.
![[Image: eA7Rg]](https://www.270towin.com/map-images/eA7Rg)
https://www.axios.com/trump-upset-biden-...j7rWd8UxaM
The article makes good points, but I don't think the Republicans can make it stick that Biden and "Democrat-run cities" are causing or stoking the riots, such as they are, or that Trump's image is improving when it has been stuck at 41-42% for years.
The minimum scenario for Trump to win: recover Florida and North Carolina, but not AZ; keep the other tossup states, and the Maine and Nebraska districts, but lose in Minnesota and WI, and take PA. Win in the House of Reps. since they vote by state and not by individual membership.
The same scenario would work if Trump recovers AZ and keeps WI, but loses PA, in which case he wins outright 270 to 268. In other words, keep the states he won in 2016, and win just one of the three former blue-wall rust-belt states in won in 2016. But if Trump loses NE district 2, but wins only WI of the three, in this scenario, then the House decides.