08-31-2020, 04:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2020, 04:36 PM by Eric the Green.)
Trump got his Bump. Whether from the convention or his calls for law and order after riots is not clear. Biden has launched a counter-attack and plans to visit swing states. So we'll see.
On real clear politics, the swing state averages are closing fast, but that's partly due to their emphasis on conservative polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar. Another conservative poll, Emerson, now gives Trump +2 job approval, though the average remains in the -9/10 range.
edited/revised Sept.1, 5:15 PM EDT
National Biden +7.1
Arizona Biden +4.0
Colorado Biden +12.1
Florida Biden +4.3
Georgia Trump +0.4
Iowa Trump +1.9
Kansas Trump +9.5
Michigan Biden +6.5
Minnesota Biden +5.9
Missouri Trump +7.6
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +6.3
New Hampshire Biden +7.9
North Carolina Biden +1.0
Ohio Trump +1.9
Pennsylvania Biden +4.7
South Carolina Trump +6.7
Texas Trump +1.5
Utah Trump +11.8
Virginia Biden +10.7
Wisconsin Biden +6.3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
![[Image: zrQlK]](https://www.270towin.com/map-images/zrQlK)
State averages are also affected by the national average, and vice-versa, in the fivethirtyeight method. The map is based on those state averages as listed on the fivethirtyeight website, using the 270towin site to make the map, and using the 270towin designations where there are no polls on fivethirtyeight. On my map, +-3% is toss up, 3-9% is leaning (light color), 9-15% is likely, and 15+% is safe (deep color). Arkansas still has only 1 poll showing Trump +2%, but historically it is deep red so I keep it here as leaning Trump. Montana went over 9 points for Trump Aug.31, so I'll keep it as likely for now. Red = Republican (Trump), Blue = Democratic (Biden).
Trump is going to Kenosha Wisconsin today to stoke false fear of antifa and rioters. Kenosha County is something of a bellweather. It voted solidly for Obama, about 44 to 34 thousand, but voted for Trump by just over 200 votes. With a population of 100,000, the city itself is still 75% white with other races increasing. A former industrial town, white collar and high tech professions are growing. Biden will campaign in PA today.
On real clear politics, the swing state averages are closing fast, but that's partly due to their emphasis on conservative polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar. Another conservative poll, Emerson, now gives Trump +2 job approval, though the average remains in the -9/10 range.
edited/revised Sept.1, 5:15 PM EDT
National Biden +7.1
Arizona Biden +4.0
Colorado Biden +12.1
Florida Biden +4.3
Georgia Trump +0.4
Iowa Trump +1.9
Kansas Trump +9.5
Michigan Biden +6.5
Minnesota Biden +5.9
Missouri Trump +7.6
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +6.3
New Hampshire Biden +7.9
North Carolina Biden +1.0
Ohio Trump +1.9
Pennsylvania Biden +4.7
South Carolina Trump +6.7
Texas Trump +1.5
Utah Trump +11.8
Virginia Biden +10.7
Wisconsin Biden +6.3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
State averages are also affected by the national average, and vice-versa, in the fivethirtyeight method. The map is based on those state averages as listed on the fivethirtyeight website, using the 270towin site to make the map, and using the 270towin designations where there are no polls on fivethirtyeight. On my map, +-3% is toss up, 3-9% is leaning (light color), 9-15% is likely, and 15+% is safe (deep color). Arkansas still has only 1 poll showing Trump +2%, but historically it is deep red so I keep it here as leaning Trump. Montana went over 9 points for Trump Aug.31, so I'll keep it as likely for now. Red = Republican (Trump), Blue = Democratic (Biden).
Trump is going to Kenosha Wisconsin today to stoke false fear of antifa and rioters. Kenosha County is something of a bellweather. It voted solidly for Obama, about 44 to 34 thousand, but voted for Trump by just over 200 votes. With a population of 100,000, the city itself is still 75% white with other races increasing. A former industrial town, white collar and high tech professions are growing. Biden will campaign in PA today.