09-10-2020, 09:49 AM
Here's how I handicap the 2020 Presidential election two months before based on polls alone from after the Republican National Convention:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=0;;4&AZ=1;84;6&AR=0;;6&CA=0;;6&CO=1;91;6&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;69;4&GA=1;56;2&HI=0;;7&ID=2;8;8&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;64;4&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=0;;6&MA=0;;6&MI=1;92;6&MN=1;84;6&MS=0;;5&MO=2;23;5&MT=2;20;6&NV=1;77;5&NH=0;;5&NJ=1;97;8&NM=1;96;8&NY=0;;6&NC=1;64;4&ND=0;;5&OH=1;73;5&OK=2;0;8&OR=0;;5&PA=1;82;6&RI=0;;6&SC=0;;5&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=4;50;1&UT=0;;7&VT=0;;6&VA=0;;5&WA=0;;5&WV=0;;6&WI=1;82;6&WY=0;;6&ME=1;95;8&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=2;41;2&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
NC (Monmouth) Biden +2 (64%)
FL (Quinnipiac) Biden +3 (69%)
PA (Quinnipiac) Biden +8 (84%)
WI (FoX News) Biden +8 (84%)
AZ (FoX News) Biden +9 (87%)
NV (University of Nevada) Biden +5 (77%)
TX (Morning Consult) Trump +1 (44%)
CO (Morning Consult) Biden +10 (91%) -- new September 1
MI (Hodas) Biden +11 (92%)
MN (PPP) Biden +8 (84%)
TX (it is a D poll) Biden +3. Average with Morning Consult and you get +1 (56%)
TX (another poll, University of Texas at Tyler for the Dallas Morning News -- Trump +2) -- average is zero. 50/50 chance between the three.
NM --Research Associates for the Albuquerque Journal -- Biden +15.
MO -- We Ask America, Trump +5
OH (Rasmussen) Biden +4 (73%)
OK (Sooner Poll) Trump +25. No doubt about how Oklahoma goes in 2020.
GA (Fabrizio) Biden +1
IA (Fabrizio) Biden +2
ME at-large (Fabrizio) Biden +14
MT (Fabrizio) Trump +7
Biden 0-4% saturation 8
Biden 5-20% saturation 6
Biden 21-35% saturation 5
Biden 36-40% saturation 4
Biden 41-49% saturation 2
50/50 white
Biden 51-60% saturation 2
Biden 61-70% saturation 4
Biden 71-80% saturation 5
Biden 81-95% saturation 6
Biden 95%+ saturation 8
That's "41" in ME-02.
A reminder on scoring:
lead likelihood, three months and two months
0 50 50 10 87 91
1 55 56 11 88 92
2 59 64 12 89 93
3 64 69 13 90 94
4 69 73 14 91 95
5 72 77 15 92 96
6 76 78 16 93 97
7 80 80 17 94 97
8 83 84 18 95 97
9 85 87 19 96 97
Note that the probability that a leader wins more precipitously at 5% (9% delta) than at 1 (2% delta), so the increase from my estimate at three months cannot be linear in the range between a 1% and a 5% lead.
At this point I would estimate that New Hampshire and Virginia are out of reach of Trump to the same extent as Maine at-large or New Mexico... and all states that Trump lost by more than 10% in 2016. A great range of possibilities remains on whether former US Vice President Joe Biden would get 300 or 400 electoral votes -- although the legal consequences would be the same.. It is telling that Trump has a chance of losing Missouri or Montana (about 1 in 5 for both).
Time is running out. By this time an incumbent usually has the ability to define the challenger; for now the opposite has happened.
NC (Monmouth) Biden +2 (64%)
FL (Quinnipiac) Biden +3 (69%)
PA (Quinnipiac) Biden +8 (84%)
WI (FoX News) Biden +8 (84%)
AZ (FoX News) Biden +9 (87%)
NV (University of Nevada) Biden +5 (77%)
TX (Morning Consult) Trump +1 (44%)
CO (Morning Consult) Biden +10 (91%) -- new September 1
MI (Hodas) Biden +11 (92%)
MN (PPP) Biden +8 (84%)
TX (it is a D poll) Biden +3. Average with Morning Consult and you get +1 (56%)
TX (another poll, University of Texas at Tyler for the Dallas Morning News -- Trump +2) -- average is zero. 50/50 chance between the three.
NM --Research Associates for the Albuquerque Journal -- Biden +15.
MO -- We Ask America, Trump +5
OH (Rasmussen) Biden +4 (73%)
OK (Sooner Poll) Trump +25. No doubt about how Oklahoma goes in 2020.
GA (Fabrizio) Biden +1
IA (Fabrizio) Biden +2
ME at-large (Fabrizio) Biden +14
MT (Fabrizio) Trump +7
Biden 0-4% saturation 8
Biden 5-20% saturation 6
Biden 21-35% saturation 5
Biden 36-40% saturation 4
Biden 41-49% saturation 2
50/50 white
Biden 51-60% saturation 2
Biden 61-70% saturation 4
Biden 71-80% saturation 5
Biden 81-95% saturation 6
Biden 95%+ saturation 8
That's "41" in ME-02.
A reminder on scoring:
lead likelihood, three months and two months
0 50 50 10 87 91
1 55 56 11 88 92
2 59 64 12 89 93
3 64 69 13 90 94
4 69 73 14 91 95
5 72 77 15 92 96
6 76 78 16 93 97
7 80 80 17 94 97
8 83 84 18 95 97
9 85 87 19 96 97
Note that the probability that a leader wins more precipitously at 5% (9% delta) than at 1 (2% delta), so the increase from my estimate at three months cannot be linear in the range between a 1% and a 5% lead.
At this point I would estimate that New Hampshire and Virginia are out of reach of Trump to the same extent as Maine at-large or New Mexico... and all states that Trump lost by more than 10% in 2016. A great range of possibilities remains on whether former US Vice President Joe Biden would get 300 or 400 electoral votes -- although the legal consequences would be the same.. It is telling that Trump has a chance of losing Missouri or Montana (about 1 in 5 for both).
Time is running out. By this time an incumbent usually has the ability to define the challenger; for now the opposite has happened.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.