10-01-2020, 01:27 PM
(10-01-2020, 12:15 PM)Isoko Wrote: You know, the polls right now still favour Biden and if I'm honest I don't think they are really going to budge anymore at this point. But it still interests me on how accurate they are. How many people are saying "I'll vote for Biden" when they secretly plan to vote for Trump. Or who are the people they are asking.
If I am to be honest, I think if we narrow it down, thus really could be on a knife edge and I do predict that is what the result will be - a knife edge. So no I don't take the polls seriously because I remember at the exit poll for Brexit, they predicted a comfortable win for the remain side at like 10%. Even the prime minister at the time seemed relieved and was ready to party when early warning signs started to hit at 12am that something weird was happening.
That 7% lead for Biden is nothing. Never, ever trust the polls.
I don't see Brexit as a model, frankly. You Brits tend to be a bit reserved anyway, and my experience in the more rural areas says: even moreso there. And the polls in the US 2016 election weren't really off. Three states that made the difference were all within the margin of error, and the national poll hit the vote count very close.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.