10-22-2020, 11:05 AM
(10-21-2020, 02:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(10-21-2020, 12:30 PM)Isoko Wrote: Not sure what to make of it but in the latest financial reports, they are showing the vote narrowing with the potentiality for another Trump victory.
Also of interest is the Trafalgar Group which supposedly was the only poll to accurately get Trumps last win correct, some guy winning a seat in 2018 right and now they are saying Trump is on the course for a narrow win as well.
Apparently, they are picking up the hidden Trump voters and in key States such as Michigan and Pensylvania, Trump is one point ahead of Biden. Also he is apparently in front when it comes to Georgia, Florida and Ohio.
Now this is interesting. My wife thinks Trump screwed up too much with the corona virus and this is going to cost him with the independents. On the other hand, I think that Trump will easily win over those blue collar workers again, along with energising his base to get out and vote.
On the other hand, you have a lot of people in America who just want things to return back to normal and will vote for Biden just to get Trump out of office. I think Trump has alienated a lot of moderates, the what I call "I just want to get on with my life", people.
This all said, I did have an interesting thought today. The reason people were pushed to vote for Trump the first time around was the economy. They wanted to send the Democrats a big message that they were not happy with the economy.
Therefore the Dems have got to get serious about the economy and actually turning Americas fortunes around. Actually build a new economy that works for all. Right now, they don't seem to be making any noise about displacing neo liberalism and seem quite happy to continue on the same old path. Dems have got to have a big u turn otherwise these political upsets could keep happening down the road.
You got that last part right. I think if Biden comes out clearly against trickle-down economics, which his policies already imply that he will, he'll get some of those blue-collar votes back.
As for Trafalgar, a broken clock is right twice a day. It is definitely and deliberately a Republican poll, and a constant outlier. The averages from fivethirtyeight that I am posting is what to go by. Those are based on the most polls, not on "financial reports."
The Trafalgar poll is worthless, something simply expressing the wishful thinking of the President. The Trump campaign does what it must to keep up the hope of the President, including the purchase of polls that exist to tell him what he wants to hear. Internal documents showed that Trafalgar Group would supply its client the results taht that client wants. It thus has no agility.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.