Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

How the States 'fall' (include independent-voting districts):

(read down for an increase for Biden and up for an increase for Trump)

Third-party and independent nominees (as well as such luminaries as "Jesus Christ", "Santa Claus", "Darth Vader", and utter gibberish or disqualified persons are included)

000 DC 003
003 MA 014
014 HI 018
018 VT 021
021 MD 031
031 CA 086
086 NY 115
115 RI 119
119 DE 122
122 WA 134
134 ME1 135
135 CT 142
142 NJ 156
156 IL 176
176 OR 183
183 NM 188
188 VA 201
201 ME* 203
---above this level Biden is expected to get 55% or more of the binary share of the vote--
203 CO 211
211 NH 215
---above this level Biden is expected to win at least a 10% margin --
---below this level Biden is unlikely to get a margin greater than 8%
215 MI 231
231 NV 237
237 MN 247
237 WI 257
--above this level Biden is likely to get a margin greater than 7%
257 PA 277 TIPPING POINT
---above this level Biden wins by at least 6%
277 NE2 278
---above this level Biden wins by at least 4% (usual margin of error)---
278 FL 307
---above this level Biden wins by 3%---
307 NC 322
--above this level Biden wins by 2%---
322 AZ 333
333 ME2 334
---likely borderline between Biden and Trump wins---
334 GA 350
350 IA 356
356 OH 374
--- above this Trump wins by less than 1%; below this Trump wins by at least 2%
374 TX 412
--above this line Trump wins by less than 2.5%; below this line Trump wins by at least 7%
412 AK 416
416 SC 425
425 MO 435 (Trump wins by 8%)
---below this line Trump wins by at least 10%---
435 MT 438
438 IN 449
---below this line Trump wins at least 55% of the binary vote and a margin of at least 11% --
449 KS 455
455 NE1 456
456 MS 462
462 UT 468
---below this level Trump wins by at least 15%---
469 LA 477
477 TN 488
488 NE* 490
490 SD 493
493 AL 502
502 KY 510 (Biden gets 40% of the vote)
510 AR 516
--below this level Trump gets over 60% of the vote)
516 ID 520
520 ND 523
523 OK 530
530 WV 533 (gotta fudge somewhere)
533 WY 536
536 NE3 537

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/

Based on composites of polls