FLORIDA
Total ballots cast of 14.4 million registered voters: 4.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 56 percent. Trump: 44 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 422,000. Biden: 55 percent. Trump: 45 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 174,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump: 47 percent.
Republican takeaway: The Republican Party of Florida has 470,000 more high-propensity voters than Democrats who have yet to vote. The Democratic Party also traditionally has more sporadic and newly registered voters as a share of their electorate, so the numbers aren’t out of whack.
Tim Baker ®, Data Targeting: “The absentee and early voting numbers for Democrats are seemingly a reflection of their most reliable voters shifting voting methods and ultimately a cannibalization of voting method and not necessarily a turnout indicator at this stage. We are encouraged by the increase in Republican voter registration and the enthusiasm we are seeing across the state."
Democratic takeaway: No party has ever jumped to a lead like Democrats have in pre-Election Day voting. Factoring in independents, who are largely composed of No Party Affiliation, Biden appears to be winning the swing voters of the swing state.
Kevin Cate (D), CATECOMM: “The Republican spin on turnout and the enthusiasm gap sounds a lot like the Democratic spin in cycles where Democrats lost the top of the ticket. If you cut through it, Democratic turnout is unprecedentedly quick, large, and new — and so is No Party Affiliation turnout.”
Comment:
1. Even more than with Arizona, I see not path to a Trump re-election that does not include Florida. Florida is Florida, and it is ordinarily close in any election. It will be so this time.
2. Republicans have a get-out-the-vote campaign, and it isn't turning out numbers adequate to offset D gains.
3. Trump losses of 2016 + FL is 261 electoral votes for Biden. The only state that Trump lost by less than 10% that he could lose without losing the election is Iowa... and Trump is not losing Iwa without losing Wisconsin.
Total ballots cast of 14.4 million registered voters: 4.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 56 percent. Trump: 44 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 422,000. Biden: 55 percent. Trump: 45 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 174,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump: 47 percent.
Republican takeaway: The Republican Party of Florida has 470,000 more high-propensity voters than Democrats who have yet to vote. The Democratic Party also traditionally has more sporadic and newly registered voters as a share of their electorate, so the numbers aren’t out of whack.
Tim Baker ®, Data Targeting: “The absentee and early voting numbers for Democrats are seemingly a reflection of their most reliable voters shifting voting methods and ultimately a cannibalization of voting method and not necessarily a turnout indicator at this stage. We are encouraged by the increase in Republican voter registration and the enthusiasm we are seeing across the state."
Democratic takeaway: No party has ever jumped to a lead like Democrats have in pre-Election Day voting. Factoring in independents, who are largely composed of No Party Affiliation, Biden appears to be winning the swing voters of the swing state.
Kevin Cate (D), CATECOMM: “The Republican spin on turnout and the enthusiasm gap sounds a lot like the Democratic spin in cycles where Democrats lost the top of the ticket. If you cut through it, Democratic turnout is unprecedentedly quick, large, and new — and so is No Party Affiliation turnout.”
Comment:
1. Even more than with Arizona, I see not path to a Trump re-election that does not include Florida. Florida is Florida, and it is ordinarily close in any election. It will be so this time.
2. Republicans have a get-out-the-vote campaign, and it isn't turning out numbers adequate to offset D gains.
3. Trump losses of 2016 + FL is 261 electoral votes for Biden. The only state that Trump lost by less than 10% that he could lose without losing the election is Iowa... and Trump is not losing Iwa without losing Wisconsin.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.