10-24-2020, 12:09 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2020, 12:14 AM by Classic-Xer.)
(10-23-2020, 11:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: MICHIGANSo, they are already counting ballots and releasing election results for Michigan and Florida right now? So, how's it going in Minnesota? I haven't heard any results here yet. But then again, I'm not heavily into the Democrat party or its low end politics like you guys these days.
Total ballots cast of 8.1 million registered voters: 1.8 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 62 percent. Trump: 38 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 139,000. Biden: 63 percent. Trump: 37 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 96,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump 47 percent.
Democratic takeaway: While Michigan does not have hard party registration figures like most other states, internal Democratic modeling gives Biden an edge so far.
Steve Pontoni (D), political consultant: "The number that’s most interesting to me is that as of (Wednesday morning) over 250,000 people have voted who did not vote in 2016 and that’s 23 percent of people who have already voted. And the average age is in the high 50s, and when we model them, it’s a strong Biden constituency from what we can see.”
Republican takeaway: Though the Democratic lead before Election Day is big, Republicans are counting on strong white working-class support for Trump and relatively low Black voter enthusiasm for Biden in urban areas.
John Sellek ®, Harbor Strategic in Michigan: “Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.”
Comments:
1. The only good that I can say of this news for Trump is that the "sporadic vote" is far too small, except in the context of a very small differential necessary to swing the state. The problem for Trump in Michigan is that the differential between winning and losing Michigan is far too small for him to win this state.
2. Trump can win without Michigan, but he would have to win nearly everything that he won in 2016 to win without Michigan. Michigan will not decide this Presidential election.
3. Michigan is a one-time fluke for Trump. After 2020 People are going to wonder how Michigan could go for Trump in 2016. Trump isn't winning Michigan. It has been a long time since Michigan had the feel of a state that could go either way.
4. Trump will win his base in 2020, and Michigan will be no exception. The base is not enough. The partsian bases for both Democrats and Republicans is about 40%, which reflects the level of support for Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, Carter in 1980, and Mondale in 1984. Goldwater and McGovern both had enthusiastic supporters... but that was obviously enough. Nobody wins nationally by getting the base and nothing else. Trump will get a vote in the low 40's in Michigan.
5. Trump can win without Michigan