10-24-2020, 12:49 AM
NORTH CAROLINA
Total ballots cast of 7.3 million registered voters: 2.1 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 57 percent. Trump: 43 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 148,000. Biden: 60 percent. Trump: 40 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 61,000. Biden: 51 percent. Trump: 49 percent.
Republican takeaway: Even when Democrats have won early voting in past elections, a surge of Election Day votes has powered Republicans to victory. And while they’re being trounced in mail ballots, the first few days of early in-person voting have been stunningly high for Republicans, already helping close the gap.
Patrick Sebastian ®, Majority Strategies and nephew of former Gov. Pat McCrory: "Right now, it's really about even, as far as both parties having their Election Day voters vote early this year. So I think that's a good thing. I think it is going to all hinge on, though, low-propensity voters.”
Democratic takeaway: Early voting has always favored Democrats in the Tar Heel State, where they’re expected to build out a lead. Democrats are returning mail votes at a significantly greater clip than Republicans, and there are drastically more people voting early than years’ past.
Morgan Jackson (D), Nexus Strategies: “Democrats currently have a pretty broad advantage, not only in registration, but looking at who the unaffiliated voters are that are voting. They're much more urban, and suburban unaffiliated, that are college educated. And that has been a very good demographic for Democrats, not only in North Carolina, but all across the country.”
Comment:
1. Nothing indicates that North Carolina will be anything but close, the state assigning its fifteen electoral votes (North Carolina is now a big state electorally) Election-day voters will likely be strongly R.
2. Trump is unpopular in North Carolina. Disapproval of the President is in the 52-54% range, which is inadequate for an incumbent President seeking re-election. Obama never won any state in 2012 in which his disapproval number ever got above 51%. 100-disapproval is a good proxy for an electoral result. Yes, it is possible to win a 49-48 election, but not one in which the Other Guy gets 50%.
Total ballots cast of 7.3 million registered voters: 2.1 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 57 percent. Trump: 43 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 148,000. Biden: 60 percent. Trump: 40 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 61,000. Biden: 51 percent. Trump: 49 percent.
Republican takeaway: Even when Democrats have won early voting in past elections, a surge of Election Day votes has powered Republicans to victory. And while they’re being trounced in mail ballots, the first few days of early in-person voting have been stunningly high for Republicans, already helping close the gap.
Patrick Sebastian ®, Majority Strategies and nephew of former Gov. Pat McCrory: "Right now, it's really about even, as far as both parties having their Election Day voters vote early this year. So I think that's a good thing. I think it is going to all hinge on, though, low-propensity voters.”
Democratic takeaway: Early voting has always favored Democrats in the Tar Heel State, where they’re expected to build out a lead. Democrats are returning mail votes at a significantly greater clip than Republicans, and there are drastically more people voting early than years’ past.
Morgan Jackson (D), Nexus Strategies: “Democrats currently have a pretty broad advantage, not only in registration, but looking at who the unaffiliated voters are that are voting. They're much more urban, and suburban unaffiliated, that are college educated. And that has been a very good demographic for Democrats, not only in North Carolina, but all across the country.”
Comment:
1. Nothing indicates that North Carolina will be anything but close, the state assigning its fifteen electoral votes (North Carolina is now a big state electorally) Election-day voters will likely be strongly R.
2. Trump is unpopular in North Carolina. Disapproval of the President is in the 52-54% range, which is inadequate for an incumbent President seeking re-election. Obama never won any state in 2012 in which his disapproval number ever got above 51%. 100-disapproval is a good proxy for an electoral result. Yes, it is possible to win a 49-48 election, but not one in which the Other Guy gets 50%.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.