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06-18-2021, 02:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2021, 02:19 PM by Eric the Green.)
(06-18-2021, 07:46 AM)David Horn Wrote: (06-17-2021, 04:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (06-17-2021, 08:13 AM)David Horn Wrote: Yes, there are more Blues than Reds, but the Reds feel under siege. Expect every dirty trick in the book -- and some not written. Just look elsewhere for clues on just how far this can go. The large swaths of social conservatives see this time as existential. I doubt the progressives are as motivated.
I agree that 2022 will tell the tale. Will the miscreants in the GOP succeed in stealing (yes, that's the right word) elections by then? They are certainly trying. If stasis prevents Federal legislation to overturn most of the meddling, then assume 2024 will be crisis in brief.
2022 will be crucial for a successful 4T, but if the Republicans win, the 4T won't be over. Biden will run for re-election and probably win (or at least I hope so; if Kamala is nominated she will lose). So assuming Biden wins again in 2024 then there's 4 more years in which the blue side can carry the day. These days, progressives are more and more motivated. But I agree, the reds feel under siege and we can't underestimate the lengths to which they are already demonstrating they will go.
That's why it's a battle. The confederates felt the same way. The blues were less motivated then too, but like us they were the majority, and they prevailed, and I predict that today's blues will also prevail. But it shows what a fight we truly have on our hands. That just means that the 4T isn't over; not that we have already lost, or even that if we lose in 2022 we will have lost the battle.
But then, I have some faith that the Uranus Return to its degree position in the USA horoscope will still be significant, as it was so significant in the past. It marks the crisis climax, as in 1776, 1861 and 1944, to the degree, and marked the previous crises in the 1690s and 1608 too, and it is not due until 2027. And there's no reason to believe the saeculum is speeding up and can be prematurely cut off just because things still look dark. Mr. Howe doesn't think so. The archetypal 84-year length of a human life, the basis for both cycles, has not changed.
"The tides of man wait for no one". We've moved into a new paradigm twice in the brief history of this republic, and both changes: the Industrial Age and the Information Age, altered the saeculum in subtle but observable ways. One of those changes is the intensity of the dominant Turnings. In the case of 2Ts, communication that took days or weeks before the telegraph became same-day nationwide (and later worldwide). The internet has put that model on steroids. 4Ts were expedited by the railroad and later by automobiles and airplanes. Hypersonic weapons will move that to real time. The intensity level merely follows suit. Look at the last 2T as the first full model. So no, we can't be this way for another 6 to 9 years. If this is a game of attrition, the neo-GOP will probably win long before we reach 2030.
I agree that the saeculum itself is driven by the human life, so adjustments will be take here and give there. Was our last 1T longer? I think it was, by a year or two. I think we've just watched an extended 3T as well.
Again, that's a focus on tech as the driver of civilization and progress. That's not so, as I see it. Politics has slowed down, and that's the key point. It is taking longer to make any shift, for better, or even for worse. The length of human life not having changed, or if anything gotten a bit longer, will confirm the uneven rhythm of the current saeculum, with the last 1T (only 1946-1963 according to S&H) and the previous 4T (1929-1945) being shorter (not longer), and thereby this is extending the 4T to a normal turning length. The 3T (1984-Sept. 2008) lasted longer, and the 4T has been sporadic in its trends; but first a great crash and recession, then a Tea Party and a Trump presidency, and then a covid crisis, plus the ongoing and intensifying global warming crisis, have all made this definitely a 4T since 2008, and one due to last 21 years, the normal length of a turning.
None of this has really been resolved, because political change is stalemated. So the battle still looms, and violence is not off the table-- as we have already seen early this year. Boomers like us cannot put ourselves off the hook, NO SIRREEE! We still must lead the way, even into the 1T starting in around 2028. Social media and the internet has merely made the stalemate stronger and more intense, since each side can spread its views more easily, and the red side's ability to spread misinformation has ballooned as never before. Only changes in thinking (a relatively few people dropping the conservative ideologies) will cause the blue side to get enough of a victory by 2029 to dislodge the stalemate and resolve issues, even if the consensus among the public only extends to about a 56-44 percentage, in a 1T that will be more like the 1870s than the 1950s.
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Good prosecutions do not rush cases unless they are open and shut. The Feds will be going after one after another business associate and political dirty-dealer until it is obvious. It's clear that Trump was as guilty as a cat that has feathers from the missing canary protruding from his mouth, but he did not act alone. He can't go anywhere. He can't effectively stir up a hurricane of hatred unless he goes back on his fascist tour.
Add to this, he may be slipping. I don't know whether the courts like to try doddering old men who utter senile language and stink up the defendant's area. He is old, he has poor dietary habits, and he is morbidly obese... He could die at any time.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(06-18-2021, 02:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Again, that's a focus on tech as the driver of civilization and progress. That's not so, as I see it. Politics has slowed down, and that's the key point. It is taking longer to make any shift, for better, or even for worse. The length of human life not having changed, or if anything gotten a bit longer, will confirm the uneven rhythm of the current saeculum, with the last 1T (only 1946-1963 according to S&H) and the previous 4T (1929-1945) being shorter (not longer), and thereby this is extending the 4T to a normal turning length. The 3T (1984-Sept. 2008) lasted longer, and the 4T has been sporadic in its trends; but first a great crash and recession, then a Tea Party and a Trump presidency, and then a covid crisis, plus the ongoing and intensifying global warming crisis, have all made this definitely a 4T since 2008, and one due to last 21 years, the normal length of a turning.
I'll dispute the 1T ending in 1963, the Kennedy assassination not to the contrary. I was 16 when Kennedy was assassinated, and it made a lasting impression, but so did 9/11. The real mood change began with the Freedom rides, but it wasn't strong enough to create the change until the Vietnam War became unavoidable: 1966 or so. The 2T ended when Reagan fired the air traffic controllers, and his new paradigm took hold fully: 1982. That makes the 1T roughly 20 years and the 2T about 16. If the 3Tended in 2008 (26 years) then my premise is true.
Eric Wrote:None of this has really been resolved, because political change is stalemated. So the battle still looms, and violence is not off the table-- as we have already seen early this year. Boomers like us cannot put ourselves off the hook, NO SIRREEE! We still must lead the way, even into the 1T starting in around 2028. Social media and the internet has merely made the stalemate stronger and more intense, since each side can spread its views more easily, and the red side's ability to spread misinformation has ballooned as never before. Only changes in thinking (a relatively few people dropping the conservative ideologies) will cause the blue side to get enough of a victory by 2029 to dislodge the stalemate and resolve issues, even if the consensus among the public only extends to about a 56-44 percentage, in a 1T that will be more like the 1870s than the 1950s.
I suspect that a resolution of some sort will happen in the next 5 years, and violence will ad hoc or nonexistent.
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(06-19-2021, 08:05 PM)David Horn Wrote: (06-18-2021, 02:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Again, that's a focus on tech as the driver of civilization and progress. That's not so, as I see it. Politics has slowed down, and that's the key point. It is taking longer to make any shift, for better, or even for worse. The length of human life not having changed, or if anything gotten a bit longer, will confirm the uneven rhythm of the current saeculum, with the last 1T (only 1946-1963 according to S&H) and the previous 4T (1929-1945) being shorter (not longer), and thereby this is extending the 4T to a normal turning length. The 3T (1984-Sept. 2008) lasted longer, and the 4T has been sporadic in its trends; but first a great crash and recession, then a Tea Party and a Trump presidency, and then a covid crisis, plus the ongoing and intensifying global warming crisis, have all made this definitely a 4T since 2008, and one due to last 21 years, the normal length of a turning.
I'll dispute the 1T ending in 1963, the Kennedy assassination not to the contrary. I was 16 when Kennedy was assassinated, and it made a lasting impression, but so did 9/11. The real mood change began with the Freedom rides, but it wasn't strong enough to create the change until the Vietnam War became unavoidable: 1966 or so. The 2T ended when Reagan fired the air traffic controllers, and his new paradigm took hold fully: 1982. That makes the 1T roughly 20 years and the 2T about 16. If the 3Tended in 2008 (26 years) then my premise is true.
Eric Wrote:None of this has really been resolved, because political change is stalemated. So the battle still looms, and violence is not off the table-- as we have already seen early this year. Boomers like us cannot put ourselves off the hook, NO SIRREEE! We still must lead the way, even into the 1T starting in around 2028. Social media and the internet has merely made the stalemate stronger and more intense, since each side can spread its views more easily, and the red side's ability to spread misinformation has ballooned as never before. Only changes in thinking (a relatively few people dropping the conservative ideologies) will cause the blue side to get enough of a victory by 2029 to dislodge the stalemate and resolve issues, even if the consensus among the public only extends to about a 56-44 percentage, in a 1T that will be more like the 1870s than the 1950s.
I suspect that a resolution of some sort will happen in the next 5 years, and violence will ad hoc or nonexistent.
Among observers here and elsewhere, the exact dates vary a bit. And the definitions of the turnings vary a bit. Even if some people end up calling 2026-29 first turning years, many traits of a fourth turning will still be present. Some sort of climax is due in 2027; bet on it. And Blue Boomers still have the responsibility to lead the battles and changes we need.
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4T's last as long as is necessary for resolving the Big Mess. They can take anywhere from eight years (Panic of 1857 to the first Juneteenth) to thirty (for Russia and the Soviet Union, the first serious reverses of the Imperial Russian Army to V-E Day. The Crisis of 1780 seems protracted (Boston Tea Party to the inauguration of George Washington), but even that lasted sixteen years. For the USA, the Crisis of 1860 (Civil War, including Bleeding Kansas) was short because it was mostly the Crisis War that lasted roughly four years. The economic distress leading to the military phase of the Crisis of 1940 allowed the rise of the two enemies that America absolutely, positively had to defeat... but four years after Pearl Harbor the USA was in occupation of Japan and much of Germany... and occupation duty was comparatively soft.
We are nearly thirteen years into the Crisis of 2020. Crisis eras can end with amazing suddenness. But where is the war? COVID-19 is killing on the scale of a war. The ugly incidents of January 6 scare the Hell out of wise people who wish to fortify American constitutional democracy against the next would-be despot who arrives on the scene in a mean-spirited populism.
The rest of this Crisis Era ideally involves the death of COVID-19 as a menace, a political realignment in which Americans make clear that the essence of democracy is the willingness to recognize a fair loss, and the economic paradigm of one great sweatshop of an economy in which people are obliged to show consent with economic subjection and real poverty as terms of employment is no more.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(06-20-2021, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Among observers here and elsewhere, the exact dates vary a bit. And the definitions of the turnings vary a bit. Even if some people end up calling 2026-29 first turning years, many traits of a fourth turning will still be present. Some sort of climax is due in 2027; bet on it. And Blue Boomers still have the responsibility to lead the battles and changes we need.
Don't count too heavily on Blue Boomers, or any Boomers for that matter. We're far too divided to lead anything.
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06-21-2021, 02:15 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2021, 02:18 AM by Eric the Green.)
(06-20-2021, 07:53 PM)David Horn Wrote: (06-20-2021, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Among observers here and elsewhere, the exact dates vary a bit. And the definitions of the turnings vary a bit. Even if some people end up calling 2026-29 first turning years, many traits of a fourth turning will still be present. Some sort of climax is due in 2027; bet on it. And Blue Boomers still have the responsibility to lead the battles and changes we need.
Don't count too heavily on Blue Boomers, or any Boomers for that matter. We're far too divided to lead anything.
We must count on Boomers, and Boomers must not give up their role. That is an essential point to remember, rather than dismiss.
It does not matter if we boomers are divided. All the generations are divided, and people from all the generations line up on both sides. All that counts is red vs. blue. Blue Boomers must step up and do their part for the team.
And of course, people are different. We are not all cut out to be leaders, by any means. But, we can do what we can do.
And so far, I see no-one on the blue side other than boomers who can succeed in getting elected president, except maybe a few who are on the cusp of boomers like the guy in the White House now.
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(06-20-2021, 07:53 PM)David Horn Wrote: (06-20-2021, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Among observers here and elsewhere, the exact dates vary a bit. And the definitions of the turnings vary a bit. Even if some people end up calling 2026-29 first turning years, many traits of a fourth turning will still be present. Some sort of climax is due in 2027; bet on it. And Blue Boomers still have the responsibility to lead the battles and changes we need.
Don't count too heavily on Blue Boomers, or any Boomers for that matter. We're far too divided to lead anything.
Which archetypes are usually the ones who conceive the ideas that will become policies & practices of the next saeculum after the Crisis? Hero? Nomad? Prophet? It seems like the Hero archetype is a bit young to set the stage but just the right age to reinforce the new ways during the transition to the next 1T, but the Nomads & Prophets are old enough to do so. How did it go last time? What place in society did GIs have around 1950 vs the Lost & Missionary gens? Looking at the table again, it seems like the Prophet archetypes are usually pretty old & exiting the public sphere by the time the new 1T rolls around (middle of Boomer gen turns 76 in 2030). So I'd expect this time around Boomer influence will be lower than X or Millennial in the 2030s, should the 1T start by then. In 2030, the centre of Gen X (1971) will turn 59 & centre of Millennial (1993) will turn 37.
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Does anyone want a rushed trial of him that implodes? Such would establish the innocence that he claims that he has. He would get to play the 'near-miss-martyr card'... the one that says "those mean loser (his favorite word for anyone who gets in his way even temporarily) liberal prosecutors who don't want to Make America Great Again. He would come out of it a hero to his cult who would be strengthened in fervency and intolerance of any defeat.
Donald Trump has spent his entire adult life, and probably much of his childhood, in a solipsistic fog in which he can be the arbiter of truth in accordance with his will. This is a dangerous attitude in a political or commercial leader who can see himse3lf as the Indispensable Star. This is how Saddam Hussein thought that he could be the Napoleon of the Arab World. This is the late Kenneth Lay who established a perverse corporate culture at Enrob -- excuse me, Enron Corporation. This is how Bill Cosby could pose as an upstanding citizen while one of the most prolific serial rapists ever,
The danger of solipsism is that it invariably implodes. The question is when it will implode, and it will implode badly with military defeat, commercial implosion. People like them (Saddam, Trump, Lay, Cosby) have a veritable army of people shielding them from monstrous deeds, buttering up their undeserved self esteem, and lying on their behalf. See also a huge number of televangelists, a category particularly unsuited for trust.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(06-21-2021, 02:34 AM)nguyenivy Wrote: (06-20-2021, 07:53 PM)David Horn Wrote: (06-20-2021, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Among observers here and elsewhere, the exact dates vary a bit. And the definitions of the turnings vary a bit. Even if some people end up calling 2026-29 first turning years, many traits of a fourth turning will still be present. Some sort of climax is due in 2027; bet on it. And Blue Boomers still have the responsibility to lead the battles and changes we need.
Don't count too heavily on Blue Boomers, or any Boomers for that matter. We're far too divided to lead anything.
Which archetypes are usually the ones who conceive the ideas that will become policies & practices of the next saeculum after the Crisis? Hero? Nomad? Prophet? It seems like the Hero archetype is a bit young to set the stage but just the right age to reinforce the new ways during the transition to the next 1T, but the Nomads & Prophets are old enough to do so. How did it go last time? What place in society did GIs have around 1950 vs the Lost & Missionary gens? Looking at the table again, it seems like the Prophet archetypes are usually pretty old & exiting the public sphere by the time the new 1T rolls around (middle of Boomer gen turns 76 in 2030). So I'd expect this time around Boomer influence will be lower than X or Millennial in the 2030s, should the 1T start by then. In 2030, the centre of Gen X (1971) will turn 59 & centre of Millennial (1993) will turn 37.
Prophets should carry that load, but we're a fractured group this time. Too many on both sides to create even the illusion of consensus. X is all-in on sticking with the old model and the Millennials are looking for anything but. Based solely on numbers, the Millennials should win, but will they?
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If thre is one good thing about Donald Trump, it is that generations younger than he have largely learned how not to raise a child who has significant advantages in life. OK, so let him practice scales on his violin for three hours a day,,, but do not let him become so pure a narcissist as Trump. The ruin, or at least degradation, of others is a certainty with the Trump type.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(06-21-2021, 09:03 AM)David Horn Wrote: (06-21-2021, 02:34 AM)nguyenivy Wrote: (06-20-2021, 07:53 PM)David Horn Wrote: (06-20-2021, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Among observers here and elsewhere, the exact dates vary a bit. And the definitions of the turnings vary a bit. Even if some people end up calling 2026-29 first turning years, many traits of a fourth turning will still be present. Some sort of climax is due in 2027; bet on it. And Blue Boomers still have the responsibility to lead the battles and changes we need.
Don't count too heavily on Blue Boomers, or any Boomers for that matter. We're far too divided to lead anything.
Which archetypes are usually the ones who conceive the ideas that will become policies & practices of the next saeculum after the Crisis? Hero? Nomad? Prophet? It seems like the Hero archetype is a bit young to set the stage but just the right age to reinforce the new ways during the transition to the next 1T, but the Nomads & Prophets are old enough to do so. How did it go last time? What place in society did GIs have around 1950 vs the Lost & Missionary gens? Looking at the table again, it seems like the Prophet archetypes are usually pretty old & exiting the public sphere by the time the new 1T rolls around (middle of Boomer gen turns 76 in 2030). So I'd expect this time around Boomer influence will be lower than X or Millennial in the 2030s, should the 1T start by then. In 2030, the centre of Gen X (1971) will turn 59 & centre of Millennial (1993) will turn 37.
Prophets should carry that load, but we're a fractured group this time. Too many on both sides to create even the illusion of consensus. X is all-in on sticking with the old model and the Millennials are looking for anything but. Based solely on numbers, the Millennials should win, but will they?
It is still up to prophet boomers. The fact that we are divided is no excuse. The blue boomers need to defeat the red boomers, and blue needs to defeat red among every generation. This is not a generational battle. A majority of white male millennials voted for Trump. Victory is the only possible consensus. The nature and cause of our 4T is our division, which is caused by the evil on the red side blocking progress.
We are 1850s redux, approaching the 1860s. Should the Union prophets have said "we can't carry the load of defeating the Confederates" because too many prophets are Confederates? Blue boomers and all blues need to defeat the Confederates of today. We are in a cold civil war that may become hot, and we blue boomers need to lead the fight.
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(06-21-2021, 11:29 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (06-21-2021, 09:03 AM)David Horn Wrote: Prophets should carry that load, but we're a fractured group this time. Too many on both sides to create even the illusion of consensus. X is all-in on sticking with the old model and the Millennials are looking for anything but. Based solely on numbers, the Millennials should win, but will they?
It is still up to prophet boomers. The fact that we are divided is no excuse. The blue boomers need to defeat the red boomers, and blue needs to defeat red among every generation. This is not a generational battle. A majority of white male millennials voted for Trump. Victory is the only possible consensus. The nature and cause of our 4T is our division, which is caused by the evil on the red side blocking progress.
We are 1850s redux, approaching the 1860s. Should the Union prophets have said "we can't carry the load of defeating the Confederates" because too many prophets are Confederates? Blue boomers and all blues need to defeat the Confederates of today. We are in a cold civil war that may become hot, and we blue boomers need to lead the fight.
Excuse? No, it's not an excuse, just reality. The harder either side pushes, the harder the other side pushes back. All that creates is dissention and confusion. Not everyone is ready to hear this tale. I tested the fully rational version on my own solidly Blue family, and even there, I got push back. The Blue side has been asleep for decades, and it will take time to hone effective messages, present them, and have them become the kind of guidance you desire... me too, for that matter.
Top of the list, the hyper-partisan latte liberals need to be stood down. Their super-wokeness is so totally off-putting that it's creating it's own weather. They're the left's version of QAnon. Sorry, but people do not respond to being told they are guilty of original sin, and can't redeem themselves. You have to sell to the buyer, and no one, not already in that camp, is buying. Fix that first. By now we should have learned that.
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(06-21-2021, 11:29 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It is still up to prophet boomers. The fact that we are divided is no excuse. The blue boomers need to defeat the red boomers, and blue needs to defeat red among every generation. This is not a generational battle. A majority of white male millennials voted for Trump. Victory is the only possible consensus. The nature and cause of our 4T is our division, which is caused by the evil on the red side blocking progress.
We are 1850s redux, approaching the 1860s. Should the Union prophets have said "we can't carry the load of defeating the Confederates" because too many prophets are Confederates? Blue boomers and all blues need to defeat the Confederates of today. We are in a cold civil war that may become hot, and we blue boomers need to lead the fight.
From what I remember of S&H, it is the young civic / hero generation that defines stuff. They are young, numerous, carrying the load, listened to what their elders said during while growing up, and determined to do it their way. This doesn't mean the boomers will shut up. Prophets blab. It's what they do. Hero/civics just do.
Not clear how well this pattern is being followed this time around.
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06-21-2021, 11:41 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2021, 01:40 AM by Eric the Green.)
(06-21-2021, 04:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (06-21-2021, 11:29 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It is still up to prophet boomers. The fact that we are divided is no excuse. The blue boomers need to defeat the red boomers, and blue needs to defeat red among every generation. This is not a generational battle. A majority of white male millennials voted for Trump. Victory is the only possible consensus. The nature and cause of our 4T is our division, which is caused by the evil on the red side blocking progress.
We are 1850s redux, approaching the 1860s. Should the Union prophets have said "we can't carry the load of defeating the Confederates" because too many prophets are Confederates? Blue boomers and all blues need to defeat the Confederates of today. We are in a cold civil war that may become hot, and we blue boomers need to lead the fight.
From what I remember of S&H, it is the young civic / hero generation that defines stuff. They are young, numerous, carrying the load, listened to what their elders said during while growing up, and determined to do it their way. This doesn't mean the boomers will shut up. Prophets blab. It's what they do. Hero/civics just do.
Not clear how well this pattern is being followed this time around.
It may be harder to tell this time. Society is much more populated and diverse with a cacophony of voices being heard. Still, some people are doing their jobs. I think of former Secretary Robert Reich. He's soldering on, and maybe some people listen.
https://robertreich.org/
According to how I read The Fourth Turning, the prophets set the direction and the goals of the Crisis period, the Nomads organize and manage, and the heroes do the work and carry on the battle. If we are to have a successful 4T, the (Blue, non-confederate) Boomers must assume this role as prescribed, and not give up and pass the torch.
I wish the children's program "Where in Time is Carmen San Diego" had received more attention here and elsewhere, back in the early days of the forum when I posted about it. It was a perfect picture of a fourth turning team!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Where_in_T...game_show)
Such a great show!! Such perfect examples of the Boomer, Xer and Millennial generations!
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06-22-2021, 12:04 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2021, 03:42 AM by Eric the Green.)
(06-21-2021, 04:41 PM)David Horn Wrote: (06-21-2021, 11:29 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (06-21-2021, 09:03 AM)David Horn Wrote: Prophets should carry that load, but we're a fractured group this time. Too many on both sides to create even the illusion of consensus. X is all-in on sticking with the old model and the Millennials are looking for anything but. Based solely on numbers, the Millennials should win, but will they?
It is still up to prophet boomers. The fact that we are divided is no excuse. The blue boomers need to defeat the red boomers, and blue needs to defeat red among every generation. This is not a generational battle. A majority of white male millennials voted for Trump. Victory is the only possible consensus. The nature and cause of our 4T is our division, which is caused by the evil on the red side blocking progress.
We are 1850s redux, approaching the 1860s. Should the Union prophets have said "we can't carry the load of defeating the Confederates" because too many prophets are Confederates? Blue boomers and all blues need to defeat the Confederates of today. We are in a cold civil war that may become hot, and we blue boomers need to lead the fight.
Excuse? No, it's not an excuse, just reality. The harder either side pushes, the harder the other side pushes back. All that creates is dissention and confusion. Not everyone is ready to hear this tale. I tested the fully rational version on my own solidly Blue family, and even there, I got push back. The Blue side has been asleep for decades, and it will take time to hone effective messages, present them, and have them become the kind of guidance you desire... me too, for that matter.
Top of the list, the hyper-partisan latte liberals need to be stood down. Their super-wokeness is so totally off-putting that it's creating it's own weather. They're the left's version of QAnon. Sorry, but people do not respond to being told they are guilty of original sin, and can't redeem themselves. You have to sell to the buyer, and no one, not already in that camp, is buying. Fix that first. By now we should have learned that.
That's the nature of a civil war turning. Both sides are pushing. So, one side has to push harder and win. It's called a Crisis, S&H never said it would be easy. The Blue side is waking up, and pushing harder. The leaders are available from the Boomer generation, mostly the younger Boomers now, but they are ready. And Blue Xers are available to help lead and manage, and Blue Millennials are ready to help manage, staff and organize. We can all do our part, even if not in our prescribes generational roles. As for guidance, that has been available for decades. And no, they can't not be hyper-partisan. The Blue Boomers must be as partisan as possible, in the best sense. Keep saying what is needed. There is nothing left on the other side but madness.
Being partisan now, like many of our Democratic politicians and organizers are being, are just saying what is practical and necessary to do. They are the ones being heard now, not the crazies. Total agreement on our team is an impossible goal, now, or ever. The Blue side is coming together though. From Sanders, even sometimes all the way to Manchin. The House Democrats have a bare majority, and yet are putting things through. They passed HR1, and it's a masterpiece! It won't pass the senate yet, but it's just the reforms I predicted! And the red crazies on the other side cannot be convinced. They don't need to be convinced, or even insulted; just defeated. Yes, we have to ignore or put aside some of the fluff of identity politics and stuff like that, but we've got the people behind us now, 55-43%. A bit of demographic changes ahead will tip the scales. That's our camp, and they are buying. That's the only level of consensus we're gonna git! Let's roll.
I hope it works. I know it's not guaranteed. The Republicans still have a lot of cards. The solution is lots of electioneering! Get the vote out! And get the best candidates out there. Your former and future governor Terry is a good one! Use the democracy we still have left before it's too late and gone. Which will be in this 4T if we don't win now. The ball is in our court.
By the way I am encouraged by the Supreme Court. Pundits say they don't want to get into politics too much. Court packing is a threat that might stimulate them to behave and not all be movement conservatives like Alito. Their recent decisions were great. I still cringe about gun laws coming before them, and the abortion issue could be a firecracker. We'll see.
In fact, the Supreme Court very much made my point for me this week! They gave final approval to Obamacare. This was an advance in health care reform that passed on a very narrow partisan vote, only because the Democrats temporarily had 60 senate votes. Even then, it was a watered down version of the original proposal. But the Court approved it because people now depend on it. The point is, consensus is ONLY possible through victory. Once people see that the progressive programs work, they will support them. It may take a few years, but it will happen.
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(06-22-2021, 12:04 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: That's the nature of a civil war turning. Both sides are pushing. So, one side has to push harder and win. It's called a Crisis, S&H never said it would be easy. The Blue side is waking up, and pushing harder. The leaders are available from the Boomer generation, mostly the younger Boomers now, but they are ready. And Blue Xers are available to help lead and manage, and Blue Millennials are ready to help manage, staff and organize. We can all do our part, even if not in our prescribes generational roles. As for guidance, that has been available for decades. And no, they can't not be hyper-partisan. The Blue Boomers must be as partisan as possible, in the best sense. Keep saying what is needed. There is nothing left on the other side but madness.
A lot depends on who and where. We're still fighting a rearguard action in many places. With the Blues concentrated and the Reds dispersed, I'm still not sure how well this struggle will go. We need the suburbs. If they continue to move as they have been moving, the Blue side will do fine. If...
Eric Wrote:Being partisan now, like many of our Democratic politicians and organizers are being, are just saying what is practical and necessary to do. They are the ones being heard now, not the crazies. Total agreement on our team is an impossible goal, now, or ever. The Blue side is coming together though. From Sanders, even sometimes all the way to Manchin. The House Democrats have a bare majority, and yet are putting things through. They passed HR1, and it's a masterpiece! It won't pass the senate yet, but it's just the reforms I predicted! And the red crazies on the other side cannot be convinced. They don't need to be convinced, or even insulted; just defeated. Yes, we have to ignore or put aside some of the fluff of identity politics and stuff like that, but we've got the people behind us now, 55-43%. A bit of demographic changes ahead will tip the scales. That's our camp, and they are buying. That's the only level of consensus we're gonna git! Let's roll.
I can say I'm impressed by the discipline of the pros. The fringe is still the fringe, but even the most leftwing pros (Bernie, AOC and the Squad) have shown restraint while consensus is allowed to build. For that, they're running red hot in idle, and will need to have running room soon.
Eric Wrote:I hope it works. I know it's not guaranteed. The Republicans still have a lot of cards. The solution is lots of electioneering! Get the vote out! And get the best candidates out there. Your former and future governor Terry is a good one! Use the democracy we still have left before it's too late and gone. Which will be in this 4T if we don't win now. The ball is in our court.
If this cycle in Virginia has the Dems continuing to hold firm, I'll feel good about 2022 and 2024. Virginia typically votes for the opposite party in the White House. When that doesn't happen, assume the dynamics are tilted pretty far.
Eric Wrote:By the way I am encouraged by the Supreme Court. Pundits say they don't want to get into politics too much. Court packing is a threat that might stimulate them to behave and not all be movement conservatives like Alito. Their recent decisions were great. I still cringe about gun laws coming before them, and the abortion issue could be a firecracker. We'll see.
In fact, the Supreme Court very much made my point for me this week! They gave final approval to Obamacare. This was an advance in health care reform that passed on a very narrow partisan vote, only because the Democrats temporarily had 60 senate votes. Even then, it was a watered down version of the original proposal. But the Court approved it because people now depend on it. The point is, consensus is ONLY possible through victory. Once people see that the progressive programs work, they will support them. It may take a few years, but it will happen.
SCOTUS is still TBD in my book. We have 6 Roman Catholics, with 5 very conservative in their faith. If abortion rights survive, they will survive anything. If they fall, then the pro-choice mandate will grow, and fast. I think they know that too.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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Trump's enablers have themselves committed egregious crimes, and the legal system must force an accounting for those.
Really, I see Donald Trump having a foot in the grave as it is. If anyone broadcasts "I am a fatal stroke waiting to happen", then it is he. If the cancer (horrid dietary habits -- too much burned food), stroke, or heart attack that he ends up with does not kill him at once, then it will debilitate him. Charles Manson, vile as he was, had enough vitality that until near the end of his stay in his mortal cowl, left no doubt that he belonged only in prison -- or Hell.
The right message involving Donald Trump isn't that he did horrible things ineptly, and the one who does horrible things competently enough to destroy the opposition will be justified on some "might-makes-right" proposition. Plenty of people believe much the same as Donald Trump, and some of them are far more knowledgeable about the political process and just as ruthless and cruel.
Cranks with power are dangerous. Such was Heinrich Himmler and Herrmann Goering. It's the cold, calculating fellow with insatiable desire for power and consummate ruthlessness who becomes a Hitler, a Stalin, or a Satan Hussein. Trump is a crank.
Let's not forget the Michigan plot as an expression of what people think possible if they despise even a state government. Beliefs are legal, but violent actions against a Constitutional government rip at everything. People must know also that democracy requires that people who lose elections accept the result. Lenin's Bolshevik revolution followed a sharp defeat of his splinter from the Russian Social Democratic Labor Party. Yes, some people would kill American democracy if such would achieve their vision of a Christian version of Iran.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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Guilianni's law license in New York is suspended. Rumors are swirling that something will happen real soon now. We will see.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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(06-26-2021, 07:20 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Guilianni's law license in New York is suspended. Rumors are swirling that something will happen real soon now. We will see.
I saw something to that effect on Rachel Maddow. Yes, she is very far to the Left in the political context, but she is very cautious about announcing something of such nature. The edifice Trumpism is not a flimsy house of cards, but it seems to be coming with one self-serving plea deal after another.
Donald Trump, who has never been a decent person, never caught onto two basic rules in life: never do bad things to your own people, and never put people at risk of legal consequences. He does not so much need followers as he needs accomplices.
Federico Klein is the Big One. Trump has hurt people who had everything to lose.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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