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(10-25-2022, 09:16 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (10-18-2022, 03:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Irrationality, bigotry, and malign intent have never served Humanity well.
Well, they have in their own sideways way. The fittest survived. If two groups hated each other and fought, the looser did not pass on their 'faulty' genes. The race was 'improved' in blood. Of course such perpetual conflict is no longer so cost effective in this era of nukes. It is time to reevaluate things. Major powers do not become more apt to perpetuate themselves or their people by hatred and war. There is a need to end the perpetual violence.
Irrationality, bigotry, and malign intent prove suicidal in a long war. In a short campaign they may succeed if they cause the political and military structures of the losing side to disintegrate swiftly. In a long war the opposing side has cause to become more competent and develop a grand strategy whose basis is to ensure that the Other Side has little to gain. They may conquer, but they will have few settlers. They don't win the peace; they will face partisan resistance and ultimately lose the war of demographics.
Recklessness has never been a survival value. Dishonesty implodes as a basis for a viable economy. Cruelty causes community to lose viability. The Nazis damned themselves to failure.
Genes may reflect ethnic heritage. One in Europe suggests ancient origins in the Indian subcontinent and only that -- the Roma (not to be confused with Rome or Romania; their Romani language is descended from Sanskrit in the sense that Ladin and Romanian are descended from the language of Roman Italy). From what I understand, my ancestor Adam Brouwer, an early settler in New York, has a mysterious origin but a haplogroup connected with one sixth of Europe's pre-Holocaust Jewish population. Did his parents or grandparents come from some marginalized group in a Jewish community in Germany or did they flee the Spanish Inquisition? I fit about every Jewish stereotype except for a big nose, and that cannot solely be the result of one ancestral gene.
Healthy societies seek out the best in human nature and foster that. Morality and competence are compatible. Sick societies enable their vices. Competence and morality have nothing to do with ethnicity unless if immoral and largely-incompetent people are identifiable pariahs whose pariah status continues from the murk of pre-history.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(10-25-2022, 09:16 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (10-18-2022, 03:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Irrationality, bigotry, and malign intent have never served Humanity well.
Well, they have in their own sideways way. The fittest survived. If two groups hated each other and fought, the looser did not pass on their 'faulty' genes. The race was 'improved' in blood. Of course such perpetual conflict is no longer so cost effective in this era of nukes. It is time to reevaluate things. Major powers do not become more apt to perpetuate themselves or their people by hatred and war. There is a need to end the perpetual violence.
It seems racism and bigotry etc are not genetic. The "race" seems subject to deterioration from other factors, mainly the laziness of people who simply choose to not be informed or pay attention to their higher selves and values. 1930s Germany and 2020s USA are two examples. "Major powers do not become more apt to perpetuate themselves or their people by hatred and war. There is a need to end the perpetual violence." Indeed. Social and cultural evolution need to take over from the long age of genetic and creative life-force evolution and operate with learning and higher vision. The people of Germany learned and evolved after seeing the results of their erroneous ways. May we learn from them now.
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In primitive societies, the successful berserker or its equivalent tended to bring back the greatest prize that a hunter-gatherer society had: its prettiest daughters. There was little treasure, as just about everything material tended to rot in the heat and humidity or decay into dust. We are no longer there. OK, many American soldiers returned from Japan with wives, but that looks like a very equable situation.
The tools of modern war are simply too horrible for the conscience of good people. Much of the support for the Second Gulf War was the allegation that Saddam Hussein still had horror weapons. Some of this is to be expected because of the genocide that "Satan Hussein" had done in the past and part was failure to understand the reality.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(10-21-2022, 12:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: (10-21-2022, 11:58 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Trump may not go on trial, but at the moment I think it's possible that if he doesn't go on trial and get convicted in these various Courts, he will run for president and defeat Joe Biden. Once again, Biden's disapproval rating is now worse than Trump's. The people of the USA are THAT crazy these days.
It now looks quite possible, even probable, that our current generations will blow our current 4T for the first time in Anglo-American history. If this happens, there will be no "forthcoming 1T". There won't even be a recovery. We will continue in a permanent 4T and the saeculum will end.
This will be kind of like Russia's and the Soviet Union's from 1894 to 1953, except that at least the Soviet Union had a quieter time following their long 4T, which itself lasted quite a while, although I would not call it a 1T, just stagnation. Gorbachev could be said to have ended this, but for Russians it just felt like the start of another 4T (or resumption of its un-ending 4T), which is still current, even though to us the Gorbachev era looked like a 2T.
I've peddled the hyper-2T theory before. The neo-Prophets may not understand how they got scewed, but they'll know they did. Unless the security apparatus is all-encompassing, look for that to be the 4T replacement -- possilbly resetting the saecular clock.
What is this 'hyper-2T theory'? What do you expect to happen during the hyper-2T? Regarding next Prophets, aren't they being born as we speak? I have cousins with kids just born since COVID-19 began and so I would expect them to not be aware at all of this 4T unless it's very long & extends well into the 2030s. They would be coming up in the new 1T and will be of voting age near the end of the 1T/beginning of the 2T.
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This is one legal battle that liberals dare not lose. If they do, or even if any controversy is involved in any conviction, then Donald Trump is vindicated!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(10-25-2022, 10:41 PM)nguyenivy Wrote: (10-21-2022, 12:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: (10-21-2022, 11:58 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Trump may not go on trial, but at the moment I think it's possible that if he doesn't go on trial and get convicted in these various Courts, he will run for president and defeat Joe Biden. Once again, Biden's disapproval rating is now worse than Trump's. The people of the USA are THAT crazy these days.
It now looks quite possible, even probable, that our current generations will blow our current 4T for the first time in Anglo-American history. If this happens, there will be no "forthcoming 1T". There won't even be a recovery. We will continue in a permanent 4T and the saeculum will end.
This will be kind of like Russia's and the Soviet Union's from 1894 to 1953, except that at least the Soviet Union had a quieter time following their long 4T, which itself lasted quite a while, although I would not call it a 1T, just stagnation. Gorbachev could be said to have ended this, but for Russians it just felt like the start of another 4T (or resumption of its un-ending 4T), which is still current, even though to us the Gorbachev era looked like a 2T.
I've peddled the hyper-2T theory before. The neo-Prophets may not understand how they got scewed, but they'll know they did. Unless the security apparatus is all-encompassing, look for that to be the 4T replacement -- possilbly resetting the saecular clock.
What is this 'hyper-2T theory'? What do you expect to happen during the hyper-2T? Regarding next Prophets, aren't they being born as we speak? I have cousins with kids just born since COVID-19 began and so I would expect them to not be aware at all of this 4T unless it's very long & extends well into the 2030s. They would be coming up in the new 1T and will be of voting age near the end of the 1T/beginning of the 2T.
The 4T will not end until decade's end, unless the left loses it, in which case it will never end and all future children will be adaptives.
Next prophets will start being born in 2025 IF the left wins the 4T battle. Covid is just one element of our crisis, and not even the root of it much less the whole crisis. 2 years of a pandemic does not a Crisis make. Our crisis is our polarization, and the toxic nature of the right wing and its politicians.
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(10-25-2022, 10:41 PM)nguyenivy Wrote: (10-21-2022, 12:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: (10-21-2022, 11:58 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Trump may not go on trial, but at the moment I think it's possible that if he doesn't go on trial and get convicted in these various Courts, he will run for president and defeat Joe Biden. Once again, Biden's disapproval rating is now worse than Trump's. The people of the USA are THAT crazy these days.
It now looks quite possible, even probable, that our current generations will blow our current 4T for the first time in Anglo-American history. If this happens, there will be no "forthcoming 1T". There won't even be a recovery. We will continue in a permanent 4T and the saeculum will end.
This will be kind of like Russia's and the Soviet Union's from 1894 to 1953, except that at least the Soviet Union had a quieter time following their long 4T, which itself lasted quite a while, although I would not call it a 1T, just stagnation. Gorbachev could be said to have ended this, but for Russians it just felt like the start of another 4T (or resumption of its un-ending 4T), which is still current, even though to us the Gorbachev era looked like a 2T.
I've peddled the hyper-2T theory before. The neo-Prophets may not understand how they got scewed, but they'll know they did. Unless the security apparatus is all-encompassing, look for that to be the 4T replacement -- possilbly resetting the saecular clock.
What is this 'hyper-2T theory'? What do you expect to happen during the hyper-2T? Regarding next Prophets, aren't they being born as we speak? I have cousins with kids just born since COVID-19 began and so I would expect them to not be aware at all of this 4T unless it's very long & extends well into the 2030s. They would be coming up in the new 1T and will be of voting age near the end of the 1T/beginning of the 2T.
Essentially, the 4T fails (still TBD, but very possible at this point), and whatever we call the 1T is more like the post-WWII in Europe than here. We know that the MAGA folks have no interest in promoting solutions to AGW, firearms or any of a market basket of social issues not specific to whites being on top. This is, frankly, untenable. By the time that the next 2T begins, Boomers will be leaving in droves, Xers will be entering their dotage and Millenials will still be navel gazing (my guess, but it seems likley). Artists are unlikley to lead, except as motivators. So what will the neo-Prophets do? They have to see their world going down the tubes, so radical action won't seem outrageous. Will it be violent? Maybe. Will it be a successful realignment? The Magic 8 Ball says: Hazy.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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10-26-2022, 09:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2022, 10:01 PM by pbrower2a.)
(10-26-2022, 04:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: (10-25-2022, 10:41 PM)nguyenivy Wrote: (10-21-2022, 12:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: (10-21-2022, 11:58 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Trump may not go on trial, but at the moment I think it's possible that if he doesn't go on trial and get convicted in these various Courts, he will run for president and defeat Joe Biden. Once again, Biden's disapproval rating is now worse than Trump's. The people of the USA are THAT crazy these days.
It now looks quite possible, even probable, that our current generations will blow our current 4T for the first time in Anglo-American history. If this happens, there will be no "forthcoming 1T". There won't even be a recovery. We will continue in a permanent 4T and the saeculum will end.
This will be kind of like Russia's and the Soviet Union's from 1894 to 1953, except that at least the Soviet Union had a quieter time following their long 4T, which itself lasted quite a while, although I would not call it a 1T, just stagnation. Gorbachev could be said to have ended this, but for Russians it just felt like the start of another 4T (or resumption of its un-ending 4T), which is still current, even though to us the Gorbachev era looked like a 2T.
I've peddled the hyper-2T theory before. The neo-Prophets may not understand how they got scewed, but they'll know they did. Unless the security apparatus is all-encompassing, look for that to be the 4T replacement -- possilbly resetting the saecular clock.
What is this 'hyper-2T theory'? What do you expect to happen during the hyper-2T? Regarding next Prophets, aren't they being born as we speak? I have cousins with kids just born since COVID-19 began and so I would expect them to not be aware at all of this 4T unless it's very long & extends well into the 2030s. They would be coming up in the new 1T and will be of voting age near the end of the 1T/beginning of the 2T.
Essentially, the 4T fails (still TBD, but very possible at this point), and whatever we call the 1T is more like the post-WWII in Europe than here. We know that the MAGA folks have no interest in promoting solutions to AGW, firearms or any of a market basket of social issues not specific to whites being on top. This is, frankly, untenable. By the time that the next 2T begins, Boomers will be leaving in droves, Xers will be entering their dotage and Millenials will still be navel gazing (my guess, but it seems likley). Artists are unlikley to lead, except as motivators. So what will the neo-Prophets do? They have to see their world going down the tubes, so radical action won't seem outrageous. Will it be violent? Maybe. Will it be a successful realignment? The Magic 8 Ball says: Hazy.
Such a result as the Hard Right winning the Culture Wars and establishing a racist, superstitious, plutocratic, demagogic, anti-intellectual, anti-scientific, anti-feminist, bigoted, provincial, homophobic norm is sure to result in a sharp rejection in the next 2T. It could be extremely violent. Leaders in such a regime are likely to be consummately corrupt, arrogant, and incompetent (except at wielding the tools of terror). Think of the mullahs of Iran and replace Shiite Islam with "Christian" Protestant fundamentalism. That is what America would be like except for the absence of hijabs. There might be other markers of female subordination.
I can see these people establish a nasty order and demanding that people express undying love and complete praise for its faults. People will be obliged to see their repressors and exploiters as the best of all possible worlds when something else will be easy to find with the normal processes of a rational and imaginative mind. Consider well that even so flawed a revolutionary appeal as Marxism depends upon a mere negation of a plutocratic ideal. Yes, Marxism needs some intellectuals to adapt Marxist ideology to the distress of the people enduring that distress in one nation, but that appeal is far from erudite. In places like Russia reeling from World War Ii or China in the apocalyptic catastrophe of the war with Japan, Marxist appeals are just smart enough to appeal to the unlettered masses.
American liberals have largely stripped the political radicalism of the 2T only to revive the virtues of the Boom Awakening. Someone like Donald Trump exemplifies the worst -- basically "Do What Thou Wilt". (Sure, that is a 19th-century British mystic Aleister Crowley who gets a bad rap among anyone expressing an expectation of self-control whether liberal and rational or fundamentalist-evangelical; but "Do What Thou Wilt" expresses Donald Trump well). Only a few could ever get away with that questionable maxim as a guide to life. For far more it is something like "Suffer for shareholders, executives, bosses, and customers, and always remember to smile in gratitude to those who make your survival possible!"
Due to low glass ceilings for advancement and few opportunities to do anything else as class privilege becomes the dominant reality in American life, there will be smart people who see something very wrong with this. Shareholders and executives will enjoy sybaritic excess that degrades everyone else and seems unnecessary to the creation of prosperity. Bosses who crack the whip (figuratively or even literally) will be seen as cheap sell-outs to elite greed. Workers will wind down in front of the idiot screen, and the objective will be advertising. The ads will be for schlock merchandise, dubious entertainments, and questionable services. This will be fine for morons, but someone with an above-average level of intelligence denied the opportunity to use one's mind on the job. The orthodox economy will seem madness as well as moral affront.
If the Bible is treated as Holy Scripture, then people will read it and contrast the economic and political leadership to Biblical teachings.
Thou shalt not kill, yet the rulers kill cheaply for dissent, minor crime, and even slacking.
Thou shalt not steal, yet corruption is the economic norm. Economic exploitation is itself theft.
Thou shalt not commit adultery, yet the elites fornicate without shame.
Thou shalt honor they father and mother, yet poor people lack the means to support them when they wear down from overwork and the absence of a social-welfare system.
Thou shalt have no God before me, yet Mammon is the real God of the elites in contrast to the one that the proles are to obey.
Thou shalt not bear false witness, but the worst sort of lie -- Orwellian Newspeak -- is the official norm.
Thou shalt not make false oaths, yet all anodyne promises by the elites are meaningless.
Thou shalt not make graven images, yet pornography is rampant -- and particularly degrading and exploitative.
Thou shalt not covet, yet the proles are compelled to compete for everything, including the means of sustenance.
( Thou shalt not covet is often split in practice between material goods and "servants and maidservants, wives, and daughters").
It might be nominally and officially Christian, but it is a sick parody at best. Then think of the hideousness of the mass culture. The GI taste for the banal and anesthetic would have been enough to trigger a Boom Awakening. Combine an empty culture, a repressive and inequitable regime, and one has the potential for a political, religious, and cultural Awakening for which the extant elites have no response except brute force. The world would be set up for revolutions like those of 1848, revolutions that few of living people understand.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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