Election 2018

[pbrower2a]

I am surprised that we have no thread for Congressional, Senatorial, or Gubernatorial elections of 2018 as late as July 2018. I suggest this for primary results, generic ballots, polls of upcoming elections, and on Election Day and later -- results and analysis.

[pbrower2a]

Quote:The Trump administration's scandals threaten to take a toll on Republicans in battleground districts this fall, according to new polling suggesting “culture of corruption” messaging is gaining traction.

Fifty-four percent of voters across 48 Republican-held congressional districts said Republicans are “more corrupt” than Democrats, compared with 46 percent who said Democrats are “more corrupt.”

According to the online survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted July 2-5, an even higher number of independents hold Republicans responsible for corruption: 60 percent.

Those are welcome numbers to Democrats who have struggled to find their messaging in the run-up to the midterms. In May, the party signaled an effort to tap the “culture of corruption” theme that proved an effective mantra in 2006, when GOP Capitol Hill scandals helped Democrats regain control of the House and Senate.

“The fact that you have these recurring Cabinet scandals, the fact that it keeps happening over and over again, it registers,” said Jesse Lee, spokesman for the Center for American Progress, a progressive policy group behind the poll. “People understand it’s been taken to a new level. There’s no check on it anymore. Trump isn’t pushing back on Congress to keep it under control. Congress isn’t pushing back on Trump.”

The corruption framing today takes a different shape than in 2006, when it largely revolved around the behavior of Republican members of Congress. Now, the focus is on Trump Cabinet members who resigned under an ethics cloud, including former Environmental Protection Agency head Scott Pruitt and former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/1...oll-728977

Comment: if there is one consistent tendency about Americans across the political spectrum, it is that they do not tolerate corruption or abuse of power. I would not be surprised to find that Americans on the whole think that Republicans are more corrupt -- even if it is because there are more and more powerful Republican politicians and more opportunity for GOP corruption than for Democratic corruption.

[David Horn]

(07-18-2018, 01:27 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

Quote:The Trump administration's scandals threaten to take a toll on Republicans in battleground districts this fall, according to new polling suggesting “culture of corruption” messaging is gaining traction.

Fifty-four percent of voters across 48 Republican-held congressional districts said Republicans are “more corrupt” than Democrats, compared with 46 percent who said Democrats are “more corrupt.”

According to the online survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted July 2-5, an even higher number of independents hold Republicans responsible for corruption: 60 percent.

Those are welcome numbers to Democrats who have struggled to find their messaging in the run-up to the midterms. In May, the party signaled an effort to tap the “culture of corruption” theme that proved an effective mantra in 2006, when GOP Capitol Hill scandals helped Democrats regain control of the House and Senate.

“The fact that you have these recurring Cabinet scandals, the fact that it keeps happening over and over again, it registers,” said Jesse Lee, spokesman for the Center for American Progress, a progressive policy group behind the poll. “People understand it’s been taken to a new level. There’s no check on it anymore. Trump isn’t pushing back on Congress to keep it under control. Congress isn’t pushing back on Trump.”

The corruption framing today takes a different shape than in 2006, when it largely revolved around the behavior of Republican members of Congress. Now, the focus is on Trump Cabinet members who resigned under an ethics cloud, including former Environmental Protection Agency head Scott Pruitt and former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/1...oll-728977

Comment: if there is one consistent tendency about Americans across the political spectrum, it is that they do not tolerate corruption or abuse of power. I would not be surprised to find that Americans on the whole think that Republicans are more corrupt -- even if it is because there are more and more powerful Republican politicians and more opportunity for GOP corruption than for Democratic corruption.

Sadly, people prefer to vote for as well as against, but the Dems seem to be intent on being so bland that they fade into the wallpaper.  Even with things this bad, it's still hard to beat something with nothing.

I should note that exceptions to this blandness are finally appearing, but none where I live,  

[beechnut79]

(07-18-2018, 04:38 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-18-2018, 01:27 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

Quote:The Trump administration's scandals threaten to take a toll on Republicans in battleground districts this fall, according to new polling suggesting “culture of corruption” messaging is gaining traction.

Fifty-four percent of voters across 48 Republican-held congressional districts said Republicans are “more corrupt” than Democrats, compared with 46 percent who said Democrats are “more corrupt.”

According to the online survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted July 2-5, an even higher number of independents hold Republicans responsible for corruption: 60 percent.

Those are welcome numbers to Democrats who have struggled to find their messaging in the run-up to the midterms. In May, the party signaled an effort to tap the “culture of corruption” theme that proved an effective mantra in 2006, when GOP Capitol Hill scandals helped Democrats regain control of the House and Senate.

“The fact that you have these recurring Cabinet scandals, the fact that it keeps happening over and over again, it registers,” said Jesse Lee, spokesman for the Center for American Progress, a progressive policy group behind the poll. “People understand it’s been taken to a new level. There’s no check on it anymore. Trump isn’t pushing back on Congress to keep it under control. Congress isn’t pushing back on Trump.”

The corruption framing today takes a different shape than in 2006, when it largely revolved around the behavior of Republican members of Congress. Now, the focus is on Trump Cabinet members who resigned under an ethics cloud, including former Environmental Protection Agency head Scott Pruitt and former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/1...oll-728977

Comment: if there is one consistent tendency about Americans across the political spectrum, it is that they do not tolerate corruption or abuse of power. I would not be surprised to find that Americans on the whole think that Republicans are more corrupt -- even if it is because there are more and more powerful Republican politicians and more opportunity for GOP corruption than for Democratic corruption.

Sadly, people prefer to vote for as well as against, but the Dems seem to be intent on being so bland that they fade into the wallpaper.  Even with things this bad, it's still hard to beat something with nothing.

I should note that exceptions to this blandness are finally appearing, but none where I live,  

But would even Bernie Sanders have had the balls to break up the corporate trusts of our time  the way Teddy Roosevelt did at the turn of the last century? This is sorely needed today. Where's that one who just might have a grand slam home run in his/her bat?

[David Horn]

(07-18-2018, 08:08 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(07-18-2018, 04:38 PM)David Horn Wrote: Sadly, people prefer to vote for as well as against, but the Dems seem to be intent on being so bland that they fade into the wallpaper.  Even with things this bad, it's still hard to beat something with nothing.

I should note that exceptions to this blandness are finally appearing, but none where I live,  

But would even Bernie Sanders have had the balls to break up the corporate trusts of our time  the way Teddy Roosevelt did at the turn of the last century? This is sorely needed today. Where's that one who just might have a grand slam home run in his/her bat?

That's exactly the problem. Yes, the New Dems seem to be stepping away from the neo-liberalism that's made that party just another GOP with social causes, but the new players are young and inexperienced. At best, they won't be ready for leadership for another decade -- maybe more. The GOP is so thoroughly rotten at this point that GOP stalwarts like George Will have left the party and are lobbying hard for voters to reject them in total. So it's the Professional Scumbags versus the Sandlot Neophytes. Even being optimistic and giving the Sandlotters the win, will they be able to do anything with it?

[pbrower2a]

I prefer blandness to colorful roguishness on matters that can affect my life.

[David Horn]

(07-19-2018, 02:51 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I prefer blandness to colorful roguishness on matters that can affect my life.

Sadly, that's a tiny minority position.  Most of the electorate want to be entertained, since they have little if any understanding of governance.

[pbrower2a]

If people want entertainment, then they have alternatives not so destructive as sacrificing political decency for political excitement.

Movies, TV, sporting events, the symphony, the opera, live theater, board games, reading...

[pbrower2a]

Gerrymanders can fail. They are done with overkill, as when the Ohio state legislature created a district that had Dennis Kucinich and Marcy Kaptur having to run against each other in the nect election. One Representative was from Greater Cleveland and the other was from Greater Toledo.

Gerrymandering allows one party to 'pack and sack', creating hyper-partisan, ultra-safe seats in districts hostile to the winning party for a small number of members of the losing party (let us say a D+30 district in a heavily-black part of Cleveland) while diluting the rest of the vote in R+4 or so districts. The winning party gets safe seats for a time, but eventually

(1) the extremists win R+5 or so seats, even making gains against their party's moderates
(2) the extremists create hostility among moderates
(3) the party with the advantage from gerrymandering promotes increasingly-extreme policies and special-interest legislation
(4) the quality of legislation decreases.

When the side that wins the gerrymander gets a president who shares its agenda, the popular discontent rises.

This could be severe in 2018. As examples:

Quote:In North Carolina, Rep. Ted Budd was the beneficiary of the state’s blatant gerrymander, but he’s only polling at 40 percent against attorney Kathy Manning in a district rated by the Cook Partisan Voting Index as R+6. In Ohio, Rep. Steve Chabot returned to Congress in a newly-drawn safe seat outside Cincinnati, but he’s now seriously threatened by Aftab Pureval, a 35-year-old county clerk of courts inspired by former President Obama to run for office.

In Texas, a Republican-friendly map didn’t account for the anti-Trump backlash in the affluent suburbs. That’s putting Reps. Pete Sessions and John Culberson in a tough position despite representing traditionally conservative seats. And in next month’s Ohio special election, a seat that was redrawn to protect then-GOP Rep. Patrick Tiberi looks like a genuine toss-up despite the Republican Party’s best efforts.

To be sure, it shouldn’t take a political landslide to ensure a critical mass of competitive House elections. But given our country’s increasingly partisan voting behavior, the expectation of a midterm wave against the party in power has become the new normal. And counterintuitively, under such circumstances, the odds of defeating an unprepared incumbent in a safer seat aren’t significantly better than defeating a well-prepared incumbent in a more-competitive seat. Look at the 2006 midterms, when many skilled GOP moderates retained Democratic-friendly seats, while hard-liners in more-favorable districts got swept out of office.

Cited material from the National Journal, and the rest is a paraphrase.

[pbrower2a]

Read down to see the relevant material:

Polling of a significant part of the electorate: people who hold both Parties in contempt:

So how are these kinds of voters breaking now? Well, our latest NBC/WSJ poll finds that Democrats are over-performing among voters who hold negative views of both parties (representing 13 percent of the sample). Here’s the past and current congressional preference among these voters:

- 2010 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 49 percent GOP, 23 percent DEM (R+26)
- 2014 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 51 percent GOP, 24 percent DEM (R+27)
- 2018 merged NBC/WSJ poll (through June): 50 percent DEM, 36 percent GOP (D+14)
- 2018 NBC/WSJ poll from July: 55 percent DEM, 25 percent GOP (D+30)

What’s more in our current poll, these voters disproportionately are down on Trump (68 percent disapprove of his job, versus 52 percent of all voters), and they are enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms (63 percent of them have high interest, versus 55 percent of all voters who say this).

Democratic candidates are increasingly seen as being out of the mainstream

Those numbers above are good news for Democrats in the NBC/WSJ poll. Here’s some bad news, however: Democratic candidates for Congress are increasingly seen as out of the mainstream — a change from 2012 and 2016.

According to our poll, 33 percent of voters view Democratic congressional candidates as in the mainstream, versus 56 percent who say they are out of step. That’s essentially the same score that GOP congressional candidates get — 33 percent mainstream, 57 percent out of step.

But the 33 percent viewing Democratic candidates in the mainstream is a drop of 15 points from 2016 and 12 points from 2012 (while the GOP numbers have been pretty flat).



Comment: this suggests a Blue Wave in 2018.

[Classic-Xer]

(07-18-2018, 01:27 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

Quote:The Trump administration's scandals threaten to take a toll on Republicans in battleground districts this fall, according to new polling suggesting “culture of corruption” messaging is gaining traction.

Fifty-four percent of voters across 48 Republican-held congressional districts said Republicans are “more corrupt” than Democrats, compared with 46 percent who said Democrats are “more corrupt.”

According to the online survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted July 2-5, an even higher number of independents hold Republicans responsible for corruption: 60 percent.

Those are welcome numbers to Democrats who have struggled to find their messaging in the run-up to the midterms. In May, the party signaled an effort to tap the “culture of corruption” theme that proved an effective mantra in 2006, when GOP Capitol Hill scandals helped Democrats regain control of the House and Senate.

“The fact that you have these recurring Cabinet scandals, the fact that it keeps happening over and over again, it registers,” said Jesse Lee, spokesman for the Center for American Progress, a progressive policy group behind the poll. “People understand it’s been taken to a new level. There’s no check on it anymore. Trump isn’t pushing back on Congress to keep it under control. Congress isn’t pushing back on Trump.”

The corruption framing today takes a different shape than in 2006, when it largely revolved around the behavior of Republican members of Congress. Now, the focus is on Trump Cabinet members who resigned under an ethics cloud, including former Environmental Protection Agency head Scott Pruitt and former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/1...oll-728977

Comment: if there is one consistent tendency about Americans across the political spectrum, it is that they do not tolerate corruption or abuse of power. I would not be surprised to find that Americans on the whole think that Republicans are more corrupt -- even if it is because there are more and more powerful Republican politicians and more opportunity for GOP corruption than for Democratic corruption.

What did the liberal's do about the "culture of corruption" the last time they used it against the Republicans to gain seats during a mid term election? As I recall, they used it to win and gain seats with but did nothing about it once they had a super majority? Who is more corrupt? Time will tell.

[Classic-Xer]

(07-24-2018, 12:27 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Read down to see the relevant material:

Polling of a significant part of the electorate: people who hold both Parties in contempt:

So how are these kinds of voters breaking now? Well, our latest NBC/WSJ poll finds that Democrats are over-performing among voters who hold negative views of both parties (representing 13 percent of the sample). Here’s the past and current congressional preference among these voters:

- 2010 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 49 percent GOP, 23 percent DEM (R+26)
- 2014 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 51 percent GOP, 24 percent DEM (R+27)
- 2018 merged NBC/WSJ poll (through June): 50 percent DEM, 36 percent GOP (D+14)
- 2018 NBC/WSJ poll from July: 55 percent DEM, 25 percent GOP (D+30)

What’s more in our current poll, these voters disproportionately are down on Trump (68 percent disapprove of his job, versus 52 percent of all voters), and they are enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms (63 percent of them have high interest, versus 55 percent of all voters who say this).

Democratic candidates are increasingly seen as being out of the mainstream

Those numbers above are good news for Democrats in the NBC/WSJ poll. Here’s some bad news, however: Democratic candidates for Congress are increasingly seen as out of the mainstream — a change from 2012 and 2016.

According to our poll, 33 percent of voters view Democratic congressional candidates as in the mainstream, versus 56 percent who say they are out of step. That’s essentially the same score that GOP congressional candidates get — 33 percent mainstream, 57 percent out of step.

But the 33 percent viewing Democratic candidates in the mainstream is a drop of 15 points from 2016 and 12 points from 2012 (while the GOP numbers have been pretty flat).



Comment: this suggests a Blue Wave in 2018.

I'd say that it more likely suggests a Purple Wave in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

(07-24-2018, 02:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: What did the liberal's do about the "culture of corruption" the last time they used it against the Republicans to gain seats during a mid term election? As I recall, they used it to win and gain seats with but did nothing about it once they had a super majority? Who is more corrupt? Time will tell.

They had two years between the election of Barack Obama and the 2010 midterm elections in which they lost the House of Representatives (in part due to the usual nexus between economic and political power in which those who have the gold make the rules, as the late oilman H. L. Hunt put it). With even one house of Congress the Republicans could stop any reform not of their liking. Unchecked as they now are they can get away with much.

Donald Trump is the cruelest and most corrupt President ever -- by far!

[pbrower2a]

(07-24-2018, 02:34 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(07-24-2018, 12:27 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Comment: this suggests a Blue Wave in 2018.

I'd say that it more likely suggests a Purple Wave in 2018.

We have yet to see how the Senate will trend, but so far these numbers are strong enough to offset the effect of gerrymandering in the House.

Republicans gerrymandered the House, allowing the rise of extremists that voters eventually tire of. Republicans are able to elect Representatives suitable for R+30 districts in R_4 districts; along comes a Democrat suited to a D+5 district and he is closer to the political culture of that district.

[Eric the Green]

As the perplexing storm that is American politics rages on, countless groups are working to encourage voter turnout ahead of this year’s midterm elections. One of these groups is Acronym, an organization formed last year that’s dedicated to getting Democratic candidates elected.

With midterm elections around the corner, Acronym is currently trying to get young people—who historically have posted lower voter turnout rates than their older peers—to register to vote. To achieve its mission to get more young people off the sidelines and into voting booths, the group recently released a series of tongue-in-cheek, if not dark, films that mainly aim to scare millennials into casting a ballot this year.





https://www.adweek.com/creativity/this-c...-election/

[pbrower2a]

After "Cave-enough"...

Washington (CNN) Four weeks out from Election Day, Democrats remain well ahead of Republicans in a generic ballot matchup, with 54% of likely voters saying they support the Democrat in their district and 41% backing a Republican, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS. This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That's also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker until 2011.

This year, Democrats' enthusiasm about their congressional vote has increased and 62% now say they're extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, up seven points since September among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, enthusiasm has remained relatively steady, going from 50% in September to 52% in the most recent poll.
Democratic enthusiasm this year is more intense than it has been in previous midterm cycles, which typically engage voters less than presidential years. The 40% who call themselves "extremely enthusiastic" is the highest share to say so in a midterm election cycle since CNN first asked the question in 2009.

In fact, Democrats' enthusiasm today more closely resembles the 2008 presidential election. Just before President Barack Obama was elected, 45% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting that November. In 2008, Democrats won eight seats in the Senate and 21 in the House, as well as a victory in the presidency.

Republicans are winning the expectations game

But for all the good signs in this poll for Democrats, they have not made gains in the expectations game. Half of Americans (50%) say they expect Republicans to remain in control of Congress after the elections, while just a third think Democrats will win control (34%), down from 40% who thought they'd take over Congress in an August survey.

On balance, more say the country would be better off if the Democrats take control of Congress (38%) than say it would be worse off (32%). But that gap has narrowed since September, when 40% thought the country would be better off under Democratic control and 28% said it would be worse off. About a quarter in both polls said it didn't make a difference. Either way, Americans aren't much impressed by Congress as it is: Just 17% say they approve of the way Congress is handling its job, the worst rating (by one point) of Donald Trump's presidency.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/...index.html

[pbrower2a]

Just to remind you about farm incomes:



This has nothing to do with any meteorological catastrophes (droughts, cold waves, or storms).

[Bob Butler 54]

Well, with Michael coming in on the heels of Florence, and the Panama City Beach Waffle House closing, we get to test my theory that southerners may be stubborn, but they aren't stupid.

[Eric the Green]

They ARE stupid; they voted for Florence and Michael, and they are getting it, and they'll still vote for more. Red states are stupid.

[David Horn]

(10-10-2018, 12:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: They ARE stupid; they voted for Florence and Michael, and they are getting it, and they'll still vote for more. Red states are stupid.

Actually, most Southerners know that global warming is real and affecting their lives, but see it as less threatening than <insert hot button issue of choice>.  Remember, this area has had decades of cultural immersion focused away from what might be called Blue issues, and fully supportive of Red ones.  It's hard to break free when you have no experience with differing views.  In fact, it's scary.  Trump has had little pushback on his 'fake news' meme, because it sits comfortably in communal experience -- even though much of it is known to be false.