Generational Dynamics World View

[Ragnarök_62]

(07-25-2019, 10:32 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Jul-2019 Disgusting Boomers

(07-25-2019, 01:08 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Face it disgusting boomer, you don't want any kind of civilization
>   to exist after the "boomer era" is over, you and other elite
>   boomers like you hate humanity and want it to die along with your
>   subpar generation.

What happened to you?  Your rants seem even more hysterical and
dysfunctional than usual.  Did something change?  Did your father
finally disown because you're a complete idiot?

Matches the mood of the US and Great Britain, eh?

https://ahistoryofthepresentananthology....-1934.html

Hmmm.... Wodan ?  Why of course, the seer of Ragnarök.

Sorta like this:

https://www.rt.com/uk/465067-bojo-brexit...reshuffle/  <- *snicker*  Congratulations, Iran, another member of the "B team" for ya'll, BoJo.
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/middleeast/top...ar-AADodGd


And of course this. 
https://dailycaller.com/2019/07/24/micha...l-old-man/


So it must be true that:

Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad - Longfellow

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Jul-2019 Indian wars

(07-25-2019, 07:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Maybe. Or maybe after continued escalation of the current spat,
> there will be a war between South Korea and Japan and China and
> Taiwan will intervene on the side of South Korea. The the US will
> be forced to choose between to "unsinkable aircraft carriers". We
> might still choose Japan, though your own arguments about how
> crisis wars tend to break along the same lines as the previous
> crisis suggests that's not the only possibility.

> Or maybe Hard Brexit happens and things blow up between England
> and the EU over North Sea oil first, and then we get to go to war
> with Germany again, which would be right in line with your
> theory.

Another possibility is an Indian uprising, so we have to fight
a crisis war with the Navaho.

[David Horn]

(07-25-2019, 01:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Jul-2019 War with China

Spending on the military would be justified if it allowed us to defend against the the certain preemptive attack by China.

I make the argument that defense spending is now lard for the Swamp Pigs, not effective spending to defend us or anyone else. Ike was right about that, and, if anything, it's worse now than it every has been.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Jul-2019 World View: Al-Assad's attack on Idlib is more horrific each day

Syria's Bashar al-Assad has vowed that he would kill all three million
the "terrorists" in Syria's Idlib province

As I described three days ago, the Syrians and the Russians are
becoming more and more frustrated because the anti-Assad rebels are
not retreating, as the have in other so-call "de-escalation zones."
They're standing and fighting because there's no place else to do.

*** 23-Jul-2019 World View: Frustrated Syria, Russia step up Idlib bombing
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...890#p46890

Al-Assad is particularly targeting women and children. The bombing
targets are overwhelmingly hospitals, markets, schools, medical
facilities and hospitals. More children have been killed in the last
four weeks than in all of 2018.

Al-Assad is apparently going to succeed with genocide and ethnic
cleansing of his Arab Sunni political opponents, just as Myanmar is
succeeding in genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, and
China is succeeding in genocide and ethnic cleans of Uighurs and
Kazakhs.

That's how the world works these days.

---- Source:

-- More children died in Syria’s Idlib in past four weeks than all of
2018, aid group says
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/ar...ian-rebel/
(AP, 25-Jul-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Jul-2019 World View: Hong Kong protests continue

• Protesters on Saturday preparing for teargas

It's Saturday, and there was (and is ongoing) another large
anti-Beijing demonstration in Hong Kong. The protests have been going
on for seven weeks.

The protesters' strategy has changed. In 2014 umbrella protests, the
protesters were static, staying in one place for weeks. The 2019
protests have been different in that they've been taking place in
different part of the city and suburbs every week.

The protests have been peaceful, but the protesters have been
provoking Beijing by disobeying police orders and by displaying
British flags, British colonial flags, and American flags.

Beijing media has become much more belligerent in the last week,
calling the protests "violent" and "riots," and accusing foreigners,
including the US, of instigating the protests. This could be a sign
that the Chinese military is about to intervene, as they did in the
1989 Tiananmen Square (Beijing) massacre of thousands of young college
students.

However, some analysts have pointed out that there is an important
difference between Hong Kong today and Tiananmen Square massacre. In
1989, the milltary could perform the massacre, force all the students
to go home, force the international media to go home, and then just
continue as before, pretending that nothing had even happened.

But a similar intervention in Hong Kong today would have a very
different outcome. Hong Kong in China is supposed to be governed by a
"one country, two systems" agreement, and a Tiananmen Square style
military intervention in Hong Kong would mean the final end to the one
country, two systems arrangement. Furthermore, Hong Kong is a central
pathway from Beijing "middle kingdom" to the barbarians in the outer
world, and international news coverage is well established, and so
there's no chance of pretending that nothing happened.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) really couldn't care less what the
international community thinks of them. After all, they're committing
genocide and ethnic cleansing of Uighurs and Kazakhs, they've
violently beating, torturing, and punishing Christians, Buddhists and
Muslims for the crime of worshipping a different God other than Xi
Jinping, and they're freely destroying churches, temples and mosques
at will.

But those atrocities are all, like the Tiananmen Square massacre, all
contained within China, and Chinese officials can make ridiculous
claims that the atrocities aren't happening. But atrocities in Hong
Kong would have video on international media. Even more important,
Hong Kong's use by the CCP's United Front Work Department (UFWD) to
control China's citizens abroad would be contained. In Taiwan, where
the CCP has been promising a "one country, two systems" agreement like
Hong Kong, pro-independence would strongly reassert itself.

This could lead to war between China and Taiwan. Another path to war
would be if Britain sent warships to Hong Kong to evacuate British
citizens left over from the colonial days, and China objected.

---- Sources:

-- Special train service arranged from Long Ping station for Hong Kong
protesters
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/poli...-hong-kong
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 27-Jul-2019)

-- Hong Kong / Defying police ban, HK protesters return to gang-attack
scene
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/d...17273.html
(Al-Jazeera, 27-Jul-2019)

-- Hong Kong police fire tear gas after protesters defy ban
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wir...t-64602429
(AP, 27-Jul-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 28-Jul-2019 World View: How long will Beijing wait before invading Hong Kong

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> The "CCP" could simply wait out the protests,.. not that I think
> they're gonna DO that, but there is NO real reason that they
> actually need to make a move at all on the protesters.

Statements like this assume that there's some sort of rationality to
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policies. Instead, as I've repeatedly
said, since the end of WW II they've pursued the stupidest policies in
the history of any nation in the world, from the Great Leap Forward to
the Tiananmen Square massacre to the genocide and ethnic cleansing of
Uighurs and Kazhaks in East Turkistan (Xinjiang).

• China's destruction of the Golden Lampstand evangelical
  mega-church, with a congregation of 50,000 people, in 2018

For example, last year CCP storm troopers demolished a massive
evangelical church using bulldozers and dynamite. The Jindengtai
("Golden Lampstand") mega-church, which reportedly had a congregation
of 50,000 people, was demolished.

CCP officials are so paranoid and so deranged that the destroyed the
Church in order to prevent the 50,000 worshippers from forming a coup
to overthrow the CCP.

It would make as much sense for Trump to order the destruction of
Lakewood Church in Houston, Tx, with a congregation of over 40,000,
for fear that the congregation will attack his border wall and tear it
down.

So let's review. The CCP demolished the Golden Lampstand mega-church,
out of fear that the 50,000 people in the congregation would pose a
threat to the CCP. So how will the CCP react to more than two million
people in Hong Kong participating in anti-Beijing, pro-democracy
protests? Will they just wait for a while, and spend their time
reading Winnie the Pooh books?

According to an Indian analysis:

Quote:> "Going by a Xinhua report published on 24 July in
> Chinese, it appears that Beijing is in no mood to relent; on the
> contrary, it is ready to send forces to quell the resistance. It
> has bluntly warned both protesters and foreign forces, primarily
> the United States and Great Britain to “lay their unbearable black
> hands off Hong Kong”. As regards the protesters, the commentary
> says that “A handful of radicals in Hong Kong have perpetrated
> violence, seriously undermined Hong Kong’s social order, trampled
> on the rule of law in Hong Kong, and openly challenged the
> authority of the Central government”. ...

> According to another article titled “The causes, effects, and
> countermeasures of Hong Kong’s anti-China riots” by Hu Aiguo,
> China has failed to “comprehensively decolonize, take over the
> education and judiciary, and annul the destructive influence” left
> by the so-called democratic reforms introduced by the British
> colonial authorities in Hong Kong just before the [1997]
> handover. ...

> Hu Aiguo’s article even accuses the CIA of instigating the
> riots. Arousing nationalistic fervours, he says China’s national
> security and territorial integrity are once again facing a severe
> test, and the Chinese nation has once again reached a most
> dangerous time. He reminds China that the disintegration of the
> Soviet Union began with the Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia
> and Latvia."

So how long do you think that the paranoid, deranged CCP officials
will wait to do something?

---- Source:

-- China mulling military option in Hong Kong
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/...-hong-kong
(Sunday Guardian Live, New Delhi, 27-Jul-2019)

Those interested in understanding China should read my book, "World
View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331 pages, with
over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

[John J. Xenakis]

** 29-Jul-2019 World View: Brexit disaster approaches a final dénouement on October 31

• Boris Johnson and Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
  meeting in Edinburgh on Monday

I look at the Brexit issue (and most issues) as if I were a Martian
looking out at earth and wondering what the hell is going on. And
I've been writing since day one after the June 23, 2016, referendum
that Brexit was a total disaster in the making. And I was repeatedly
called things like "scumbag globalist" (whatever that means) for
saying that.

One insurmountable problem has always been the border between Northern
Ireland (which is part of the UK) and (Southern) Ireland (which will
remain part of the EU). Ireland and Northern Ireland have an
extremely violent history described as "The Troubles," characterized
by violence between the indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of
the English and Scottish invaders of old. The violence was resolved
by the Good Friday agreement in 1998 which, among other things,
committed to remove any physical border between the two, and allow
free movement of goods and people. It's been apparent since the
beginning that no solution exists to meeting the objectives of the
"Brexiteers" (the people who wanted Brexit) and maintaining a
barrier-free border. So that problem has always been insoluble and
remains so today.

As I've been writing since 2016, there is no solution to the Ireland
problem. And when I say "there is no solution," I don't mean that no
politician has yet been clever enough to devise a solution. What I
mean is that no solution exists, no matter what the politicians do,
given the two red lines of an open border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland and between Northern Ireland and England. You don't have to
be a "scumbag globalist" (whatever that means) to see that, but
apparently the politicians can't. And the "Northern Ireland Backstop"
is a product of extreme hilarity to us Martians.

One thing that people forget is how people's attitudes have changed
since the 1990s. At that time, the WW II survivors were running
things, and they knew how to negotiate and compromise. Today,
Gen-Xers are running things, and have no ability or desire to
compromise on anything. Each Gen-Xer hates every other Gen-Xer and
demands that the other side do all the compromising. When both sides
have that view, then disaster ensues. That's why Brexit is headed for
disaster, and the world is headed for other disasters (i.e., a world
war).

Several months ago, it became clear to me that a "no deal Brexit" was
going to occur, not because it was a good option, but because it is
the default option on October 31. In order to avoid a no deal Brexit,
there has to be some compromise, and that's impossible with the
Gen-Xer negotiations. The no-deal Brexit is the only option that
happens automatically, and doesn't require anyone to negotiate or
compromise.

Since that time, the House of Commons has held eight votes -- to
remain in the EU, to leave the EU without a deal, and several variants
to leave the EU with a deal -- and they had voted NO on all of them,
and had never voted YES on anything. That's what I mean about
a refusal to compromise.


In a television interview on Monday, the new prime minister Boris
Johnson said there's still time to negotiate a new UK-EU Brexit
agreement. Boris Johnson is saying that the Northern Ireland Backstop
is dead and buried, while the EU officials say that it's a
requirement. Johnson said that it's still possible to get a deal:

Quote: 'We’re very confident, with goodwill on both sides,
two mature political entities -- the U.K. and EU -- can get this
done."

Did you get that? Johnson says that if the UK is willing to
compromise, then they'll get a deal.

Johnson said something else that was silly. He referred to the UK and
EU as "two mature political entities." What exactly is "a mature
political entity?" Presumably it means that the entity has been in
existence for centuries, with some sort of consitutional government.
But entities don't negotiate. It's politicians who negotiate. And
politicians are seldom "mature," even in mature entities.

I heard a lot of wishful thinking on the BBC today, mostly claiming
that Johnson's back was to the wall, and he would forced to back down
and accept the Northern Ireland backstop. That's the BBC assuming
that Johnson is willing to compromise, just as Johnson is assuming
that the UK is willing to compromise.

As I'm typing this, I'm listening to a news report about what the
protesters in Hong Kong are saying: "I'm willing to die for this. I
have nothing to lose." Hong Kong is another example today where
nobody is willing to compromise.

I was watching al-Jazeera over the weekend, just as Boris Johnson was
moving into Number 10 Downing Street, and they had sent a reporter to
Edinburgh, the capital city of Scotland, to ask Scottish people what
they thought of Boris Johnson. Apparently the reporter was unable to
find a single person who likes Johnson. But they found many, many
people who hated Johnson. Not surprising, since Scotland had voted
overwhelmingly against the Brexit referendum in 2016.

Boris Johnson visited Edinburgh on Monday to meet with Scotland's
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. They did not reach a meeting of the
minds.

There is a big political faction in Scotland that says that if Britain
leaves the EU, then Scotland should leave Britain, and join the EU as
a separate country. In 2014, Scotland voted on a referendum to leave
the UK, but the referendum failed. It might not fail next time.

---- Sources:

-- Boris Johnson Issues Ultimatum to EU Over Brexit Talks as Pound
Slumps
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...exit-talks
(Bloomberg, 29-Jul-2019)

-- Scotland / Nicola Sturgeon: No-deal Brexit 'almost inevitable'
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sco...s-49154491
(BBC, 29-Jul-2019)

-- Boris Johnson won’t start Brexit talks unless EU moves on backstop
https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-jo...-backstop/
(Politico-eu, 29-Jul-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 30-Jul-2019 World View: Neville Chamberlain

Trevor Wrote:> Bought a few copies of your books and recommended them to
> others. Apparently I'm either a racist or a stooge for the
> Military-Industrial complex.

> This might be speculation on my part but I expect a lot of the
> reluctance towards embracing Generational Dynamics has to do with
> politics. It's a lot easier for people to believe everything could
> be solved and we can move forward if only Trump had never assumed
> office. Before him, Obama received similar treatment.

> Alternately, it's that the final conclusion is too horrible to
> think about and we'd rather argue about easy things like climate
> change.

This gets to the heart of the question that has bothered people
my age for decades: How was Hitler able to so completely fool
Britain and Neville Chamberlain?

Neville Chamberlain is barely remembered today, but one thing I
remember from when I was in school growing up is that Neville
Chamberlain was really vilified, and portrayed as a dumb person, and
almost an evil person, for allowing himself to be so completely taken
in by Hitler's promises of "peace in our time."

This could serve as a lesson to some of today's politicians who claim
that the source of all evil in the world is the United States of
America, and if we're nice to China, then there's no need for China to
go for war, since it's bad for business anyway.

These people may find it gratifying to close their eyes to what's
going on in the world, but they should consider the fact that they may
be viewed as evil idiots by their children and grandchildren.

People on the left believe that war with China can be avoided just by
being nice to China. People on the right believe that war with China
can be avoided by strengthening the military. It's 100% certain that
China is going to launch a war, no matter what we do. Both the left
and right are delusional, though they have different delusions.

[David Horn]

(07-30-2019, 09:37 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 30-Jul-2019 World View: Neville Chamberlain

This gets to the heart of the question that has bothered people my age for decades: How was Hitler able to so completely fool Britain and Neville Chamberlain?

Neville Chamberlain is barely remembered today, but one thing I remember from when I was in school growing up is that Neville Chamberlain was really vilified, and portrayed as a dumb person, and almost an evil person, for allowing himself to be so completely taken in by Hitler's promises of "peace in our time."

This could serve as a lesson to some of today's politicians who claim that the source of all evil in the world is the United States of America, and if we're nice to China, then there's no need for China to go for war, since it's bad for business anyway.

These people may find it gratifying to close their eyes to what's going on in the world, but they should consider the fact that they may be viewed as evil idiots by their children and grandchildren.

People on the left believe that war with China can be avoided just by being nice to China.  People on the right believe that war with China can be avoided by strengthening the military.  It's 100% certain that China is going to launch a war, no matter what we do.  Both the left and right are delusional, though they have different delusions.

Our President just conned his way past the Senate's yes men, and transferred US military technology to the Saudis, including the authorization and means to produce this stuff over there. I find China is fully rational in comparison to MBS, who is itching for a war with Iran. When that little fiasco starts, we really will have a war on our hands, and don't discount the use of nukes either. Netanyahu is just as nuts as MBS.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Jul-19 World View -- China claims Muslim Uighurs released from concentration camps

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China claims Muslim Uighurs released from concentration camps
  
• From 'Re-education' to slave labor
  
• Hitler's Force Labor System, 1939-1945
  
• Sources
  

****
**** China claims Muslim Uighurs released from concentration camps
****


Shohrat Zakir, center, just before making the statement that Uighurs have been released (AP)

A new bizarre announcement from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
claims that most of the Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs that have been
arrested and put into concentration camps ("re-education centers")
have now been released.

Starting in 2016, reports were coming out of East Turkistan (Xinjiang
Province) that tens or hundreds of thousands of Muslim Uighurs and
Kazakhs were being arrested and put into concentration camps. At
first, the CCP vehemently denied that these concentration camps even
existed. But more and more satellite imagery was published showing
the existence of huge concentration camps and crematoria. By 2019,
the evidence collected from satellites and on the ground indicates
that over one million Uighurs and Kazakhs have been locked up in these
concentration camps.

With the overwhelming evidence piling up, the the CCP was forced last
year to admit that they had locked up a million Uighurs and Kazakhs in
"reeducation centers," but claimed that the Uighurs and Kazakhs were
being locked up so that they could be "reeducated" and given new
skills that they could use in Chinese society.

On Tuesday, Xinjiang Governor Shohrat Zakir made an announcement:

<QUOTE>"Most of the graduates from the vocational training
centers have been reintegrated into society, More than 90 percent
of the graduates have found satisfactory jobs with good incomes.
...

Many of these training centres have become venues for short-term
classes on farming skills, and some are offering short-term skills
improvement courses for people before they take up their new
jobs."<END QUOTE>

People in the West are scratching their heads wondering what this
means. If there were hundreds of thousands of former prisoners
suddenly walking free in the streets of Xinjiang province, then it
would already have been noticed, and no announcement would be
necessary. So if these hundreds of thousands of Uighurs and Kazakhs
are no longer in the "reeducation centers," then where are they?

****
**** From 'Re-education' to slave labor
****

One possibility is that they've been sent to the crematoria, much like
the "graduates" of Hitler's concentration camps. That may turn out to
be true for a substantial number of them, but we may not know for a
long time, just as we never found out about Hitler's crematoria until
after the war.

Barry Sautman, an expert on ethnic politics in China at the Hong Kong
University of Science and Technology, provides a different possible
explanation:

<QUOTE>"They may mean that such persons no longer reside
within the centers. It does not mean that such persons have
returned to the status quo ante, are no longer under close
supervision, or work somewhere other than an enterprise connected
to one of the centres."<END QUOTE>

This makes sense. If you have a million prisoners, then use them as
slave labor on farms and in factories.

****
**** Hitler's Force Labor System, 1939-1945
****

That's what Hitler did, according to the project "Forced Labor
1939-1945" archive in Berlin:

<QUOTE>"Nazi Germany created one of the largest forced labor
systems in history: Over twenty million foreign civilian workers,
concentration camp prisoners and prisoners of war from all of the
occupied countries were required to perform forced labor in
Germany in the course of the Second World War.

At the height of the so-called “Ausländereinsatz” (use of
foreigners) in August 1944, six million civilians were forced to
perform forced labor in the German Reich, most of them from Poland
and the Soviet Union. Over one third were women, some of whom were
abducted together with their children or gave birth to their
children in the camps. In 1944, nearly two million prisoners of
war were exploited to work in the German economy. From 1943,
German industry also increasingly used concentration camp
detainees as a source of forced labor."<END QUOTE>

So it seems likely that the CCP is using Uighurs and Kazakhs
concentration camp detainees as forced labor.

Using these prisoners as forced laborers makes a lot of sense. But
also, as I've described in my book, "War Between China and Japan,"
both Chiang Kai-Shek and Mao Zedong admired Adolf Hitler and his
methods, and Xi Jinping is also copy Hitler's methods in illegally
annexing the South China.

This story about "releasing" Uighurs and Kazakhs is just breaking
today, so there's a lot we don't know. But as I keep pointing out,
the CCP has adopted some of the stupidest policies in the history of
the world since World War II, and using Uighurs and Kazakhs as slave
labor would be consistent with that.

Those interested in understanding China today and in history should
read my book, "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America
Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback:
331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

****
**** Sources
****

• China claims most Muslim detainees have been released from Xinjiang camps (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 30-Jul-2019)
  
• Xinjiang governor calls camps ‘pioneering’ (AP, 30-Jul-2019)
  
• China: Most people in Xinjiang camps have 'returned to society' (Al-Jazeera, 30-Jul-2019)
  
• Chinese officials claim most Xinjiang detainees have been released (Catholic News Agency, 30-Jul-2019)
  
• Chinese Officials Defend Treatment of Muslim Minority Amid International Scrutiny (VOA, 30-Jul-2019)
  
• Nazi Forced Labor – 1939-1945 (ZwangsArbeit, Berlin)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, East Turkistan, Xinjiang,
Uighurs, Kazakhs, Shohrat Zakir, Barry Sautman,
Hitler's Force Labor System

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John J. Xenakis
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[Warren Dew]

(07-29-2019, 09:36 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: One thing that people forget is how people's attitudes have changed
since the 1990s.  At that time, the WW II survivors were running
things, and they knew how to negotiate and compromise.  Today,
Gen-Xers are running things, and have no ability or desire to
compromise on anything.  Each Gen-Xer hates every other Gen-Xer and
demands that the other side do all the compromising.  When both sides
have that view, then disaster ensues.  That's why Brexit is headed for
disaster, and the world is headed for other disasters (i.e., a world
war).

Say what?  I'm pretty sure it's the boomers who are running things and refuse to compromise.  Just look at Eric and me; the only thing we agree on is no 

Quote:This gets to the heart of the question that has bothered people
my age for decades: How was Hitler able to so completely fool
Britain and Neville Chamberlain?

I think there was a recognition that the terms of the Treaty of Versailles had been unwise and unjust.  The strategy of Appeasement was about returning territory to Germany that had been unjustly taken from them.

The reoccupation of the Ruhr came first; it involved Germany reoccupying land that was clearly German.  The annexation of Austria was welcomed by the Austrian people, so it was difficult to object to.  The Sudetenland likewise preferred to be part of Germany, which is why Chamberlain was willing to sign it away.

It wasn't until the invasion of Czechoslovakia that it became clear that Germany wanted more than just German lands, at which point Appeasement ended.

You may think it was obvious earlier just like you think it's obvious that China will attack us.  But you have your own blind spots, such as to the growing tensions between the Anglosphere and continental Europe, and the fact that Russia is much more of a parallel to Nazi Germany than China is, right down to having won a war - WWII/Franco-Prussian War - then losing a war and territory - Cold War/WWI - then attempting to regain the lost territory in a crisis era.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 01-Aug-2019 World View: China limits visits to Taiwan

Guest Wrote:> China just banned individual travel visas for Chinese citizens
> trying to visit Taiwan. So for now on, only pre-approved group
> tours will get visas to visit. The noose is tightening.

Guest Wrote:> Does this include the Hong Kong Chinese? Will this block them from
> flying to Taiwan?

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has announced that it will no longer
issue individual travel permits to Taiwan for people in 47 mainland
cities, because of the poor state of relations with the self-ruled
island.

This will have an economic effect on Taiwan, because a third of its
tourist industry depends on visits from mainlanders. It's estimated
that Taiwan will lose $900 million in revenue.

It's believed that the CCP's intention is to influence next year's
election against the current president Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the
independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and towards
the Kuomintang party, which favors Taiwan becoming a province of
mainland China.

Tsai says that the move will backfire because it will “punish all
people in Taiwan," not just the DPP.

Tsai's statement is perfectly obvious, but it's never possible
to overestimate the enormous stupdity of CCP officials, as
they stumble from one idiotic policy to the next.

The new CCP pollicy will not affect people in Hong Kong who
want to travel to Taiwan. There are reports of an outflow
of Hong Kongers to Taiwan to escape the CCP army before
it attacks Hong Kong protesters.

Another possible CCP reason for block mainland visits to Taiwan is to
prevent mainlanders from learning the details of the chaos in Hong
Kong, whereas CCP state media portrays the Hong Kong protesters as
violent terrorists.

Separately, the CCP army has just released a training video for the
army to invade Hong Kong and deal with the protesters, and it shows
the army shooting protesters to kill. The video has gone viral on the
mainland, and most mainland social media commenters are calling
for the invasion to begin.

---- Source:

-- Beijing’s ban on individual Taiwan visits ‘a big mistake’, says
President Tsai Ing-wen
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics...stake-says
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 1-Aug-2019)

-- China’s army just released a video showing soldiers practicing
shooting protesters
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asi...story.html
(Washington Post, 1-Aug-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 01-Aug-2019 Russia and Europe

(07-31-2019, 12:39 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Say what? I'm pretty sure it's the boomers who are running things
> and refuse to compromise. Just look at Eric and me; the only
> thing we agree on is no

No, the Boomers are not running things, and this has been true
since the Fourth Turning began in 2003. I've written dozens of
articles on the financial crisis, and it's clear what happened.
The Gen-Xers obtained advanced degrees in "financial engineering"
in the 1990s, and used those skills to create fraudulent
synthetic subprime mortgage bonds, and sold them to Boomers
because they hate Boomers. The Boomers in the banks who supposedly
"ran things" did not understand how they worked, but only knew
that they were making a lot of money for the bank. So the Gen-Xers
were running things, and caused the financial crisis.

I've personally seen things in the computer industry where Gen-Xers
did unbelievably stupid things, because they wanted to screw Boomers.
The epitome was the Healthcare.gov project which was the greatest
software development disaster in history, and was run by Gen-Xers.
It's in contrast to the global Y2K remediation project, which was run
by Silents and Boomers, and which was the greatest and most successful
software development project in history.

Quote:> This gets to the heart of the question
> that has bothered people
> my age for decades: How was Hitler able
> to so completely fool
> Britain and Neville
> Chamberlain?

(07-31-2019, 12:39 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I think there was a recognition that the terms of the Treaty of
> Versailles had been unwise and unjust. The strategy of Appeasement
> was about returning territory to Germany that had been unjustly
> taken from them.

> The reoccupation of the Ruhr came first; it involved Germany
> reoccupying land that was clearly German. The annexation of
> Austria was welcomed by the Austrian people, so it was difficult
> to object to. The Sudetenland likewise preferred to be part of
> Germany, which is why Chamberlain was willing to sign it away.

> It wasn't until the invasion of Czechoslovakia that it became
> clear that Germany wanted more than just German lands, at which
> point Appeasement ended.

So you're defending and excusing Hitler -- always a good ploy in
an online discussion. However, what you've written is completely
irrelevant to my point that Neville Chamberlain was vilified and
hated for decades. The reason that Chamberlain was hated
and vilified was because of this:

• Neville Chamberlain, returning from a 1938 meeting with
  Hitler, promising "Peace in our time," holding up a signed
  agreement

I remember reading years ago, probably in one of Churchill's books,
that after Churchill became prime minister he had to defend and
praise Chamberlain for being unfairly vilified.

(07-31-2019, 12:39 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > You may think it was obvious earlier just like you think it's
> obvious that China will attack us. But you have your own blind
> spots, such as to the growing tensions between the Anglosphere and
> continental Europe, and the fact that Russia is much more of a
> parallel to Nazi Germany than China is, right down to having won a
> war - WWII/Franco-Prussian War - then losing a war and territory -
> Cold War/WWI - then attempting to regain the lost territory in a
> crisis era.

I have no idea what this means, or why it has anything to with
why China is planning for war.

I don't know what you mean by "blind spot," since, as you know,
I've written thousands of articles based on tens of thousands of
sources, and everything I write is well-sourced and analyzed.

I'm not aware that you have any similar body of work, but perhaps
I'm wrong and I've simply never seen it. But if you consider
yourself an expert on Russia and Europe, perhaps you could answer
several questions that I'm frequently asked, but have no answer for.

Some of these questions are: Will Russia invade Ukraine? Will Russia
invade Georgia? Will there be a new war between Germany and Russia?
If so, will France side with Russia? Which country will England side
with? Will Russia invade other East European countries? Will Russia
and Turkey have a new war in the Balkans, in Crimea, and in the
Caucasus? What will happen with Greece and Italy?

So it would be helpful if you tackle those questions.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(08-01-2019, 12:02 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(07-31-2019, 12:39 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   I think there was a recognition that the terms of the Treaty of
>   Versailles had been unwise and unjust. The strategy of Appeasement
>   was about returning territory to Germany that had been unjustly
>   taken from them.

>   The reoccupation of the Ruhr came first; it involved Germany
>   reoccupying land that was clearly German.  The annexation of
>   Austria was welcomed by the Austrian people, so it was difficult
>   to object to.  The Sudetenland likewise preferred to be part of
>   Germany, which is why Chamberlain was willing to sign it away.

>   It wasn't until the invasion of Czechoslovakia that it became
>   clear that Germany wanted more than just German lands, at which
>   point Appeasement ended.

So you're defending and excusing Hitler -- always a good ploy in
an online discussion.  However, what you've written is completely
irrelevant to my point that Neville Chamberlain was vilified and
hated for decades.  The reason that Chamberlain was hated
and vilified was because of this:

• Neville Chamberlain, returning from a 1938 meeting withHitler, promising "Peace in our time," holding up a signedagreement

I remember reading years ago, probably in one of Churchill's books,
that after Churchill became prime minister he had to defend and
praise Chamberlain for being unfairly vilified.

John you are an obvious globalist pro-Versailles/descendant. So there was nothing wrong with the Treaty of Versailles? So Germany's society was inherently evil and just happened to go insane with the rest of the world believing in world peace and embracing free trade and potential golden age when evil Germany just decided to invade its neighbors for no reason? Yeah right what a butchering of factual history; you Globalist scum. Never Mind that from 1919 to 1925 France and Poland blatantly bullied Germany dooming any Chance the Weimar government had of entrenching itself. Your political biases and extreme globalism are obvious John; Face it Americans are not embracing "world human rights" and "interfering against foreign government atrocities even though it is taking place within foreign borders".

Macron and even Trump (in recent months) by pivoting toward Israel instead of the alt-right have embraced blatant tyranny. Millennials will never embrace "Human rights" values, we call those values and the imposition of such by one word; tyranny. Practically no one born after 1950 likes globalism and the present dominant persona/currently exhibited "normal society dynamics" of the west. The Pre-1950 cohorts have a choice: cede power and allow the Crisis to develop according to actions and objectives/desires of the post-1950 Cohorts with the west abandoning human rights but nationalist/populist regimes building up actual national economies and militaries and mending fences and relations with the authoritarian east by removing its nose from the eastern world's business and borders, or the pre-1950 tyrannically retain power; in which case "western civilization" would exist during the 4T but in any subsequent era there would be no such creature, because the "western world" would no longer exist/not be an existing entity.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 01-Aug-2019 Hitler and Russia

(08-01-2019, 02:45 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John you are an obvious globalist pro-Versailles/descendant. So
> there was nothing wrong with the Treaty of Versailles? So
> Germany's society was inherently evil and just happened to go
> insane with the rest of the world believing in world peace and
> embracing free trade and potential golden age when evil Germany
> just decided to invade its neighbors for no reason? Yeah right
> what a butchering of factual history; you Globalist scum. Never
> Mind that from 1919 to 1925 France and Poland blatantly bullied
> Germany dooming any Chance the Weimar government had of
> entrenching itself. Your political biases and extreme globalism
> are obvious John; Face it Americans are not embracing "world human
> rights" and "interfering against foreign government atrocities
> even though it is taking place within foreign borders".

Blah, blah, blah.

Since you're just a young child, and therefore you're an expert on
everything, why don't you answer the questions that I posed to Warren:

Some of these questions are: Will Russia invade Ukraine? Will Russia
invade Georgia? Will there be a new war between Germany and Russia?
If so, will France side with Russia? Which country will England side
with? Will Russia invade other East European countries? Will Russia
and Turkey have a new war in the Balkans, in Crimea, and in the
Caucasus? What will happen with Greece and Italy?

Your expert analysis will be very enlightening.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(08-01-2019, 06:56 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 01-Aug-2019 Hitler and Russia

(08-01-2019, 02:45 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   John you are an obvious globalist pro-Versailles/descendant. So
>   there was nothing wrong with the Treaty of Versailles? So
>   Germany's society was inherently evil and just happened to go
>   insane with the rest of the world believing in world peace and
>   embracing free trade and potential golden age when evil Germany
>   just decided to invade its neighbors for no reason? Yeah right
>   what a butchering of factual history; you Globalist scum. Never
>   Mind that from 1919 to 1925 France and Poland blatantly bullied
>   Germany dooming any Chance the Weimar government had of
>   entrenching itself. Your political biases and extreme globalism
>   are obvious John; Face it Americans are not embracing "world human
>   rights" and "interfering against foreign government atrocities
>   even though it is taking place within foreign borders".

Blah, blah, blah.

Since you're just a young child, and therefore you're an expert on
everything, why don't you answer the questions that I posed to Warren:

Some of these questions are: Will Russia invade Ukraine?  Will Russia
invade Georgia?  Will there be a new war between Germany and Russia?
If so, will France side with Russia?  Which country will England side
with?  Will Russia invade other East European countries?  Will Russia
and Turkey have a new war in the Balkans, in Crimea, and in the
Caucasus?  What will happen with Greece and Italy?

Your expert analysis will be very enlightening.

Russia is Highly Likely to invade Ukraine and Georgia at some point in the next decade. Regarding Russia and Turkey, if they go to war it would be over the Caucasus and Control over the middle east, not the balkans. The Balkans have stabilized quite a bit since the early 2000s. Greece and Italy would try to remain neutral although Greece may be pulled in due to turkish attack. Whether the US and EU gets involved depends more on decisions made in the west than Those in Moscow.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...h-caucasus

https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28...-pub-75880


https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-...t-ukraine/

Regarding China, they would seek to Quell hong Kong and possibly invade vietnam and Taiwan, Chinese relations with Japan have actually improved quite a bit since 2015 and especially since the Trade War was launched. The Chinese and Japanese leaders have even discussed an east Asian triumvirate with South Korea that excludes the US economically.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-south...GV20151101

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s...al-summit/

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/0...UOW50cpDIU

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac...mperor-set

[Warren Dew]

(08-01-2019, 12:02 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: No, the Boomers are not running things, and this has been true
since the Fourth Turning began in 2003.  I've written dozens of
articles on the financial crisis, and it's clear what happened.
The Gen-Xers obtained advanced degrees in "financial engineering"
in the 1990s, and used those skills to create fraudulent
synthetic subprime mortgage bonds, and sold them to Boomers
because they hate Boomers.  The Boomers in the banks who supposedly
"ran things" did not understand how they worked, but only knew
that they were making a lot of money for the bank.  So the Gen-Xers
were running things, and caused the financial crisis.

I've personally seen things in the computer industry where Gen-Xers
did unbelievably stupid things, because they wanted to screw Boomers.
The epitome was the Healthcare.gov project which was the greatest
software development disaster in history, and was run by Gen-Xers.
It's in contrast to the global Y2K remediation project, which was run
by Silents and Boomers, and which was the greatest and most successful
software development project in history.

Never blame on malice what can be explained by incompetence.

The proximate cause of the financial crisis was probably Gen X pragmatism, though combined with a Boomer created system that created plenty of moral hazard to interact with the pragmatism.  Gen X loan writers certainly wrote a lot of bogus loans, but it was economically bankrupt mortgage affirmative action, along with subsequent government money to soak up the loans, that created the environment where bogus loans were profitable to write.

That crisis itself was just part of the normal business cycle, though.  It was the bailouts which raised the issue to the level where it might be important to a generational crisis.  The bailouts happened under Bush, a Boomer.

Healthcare.gov reflected incompetency, yes, but so have other software initiatives through the years; it had nothing to do with the crisis.

Quote:So you're defending and excusing Hitler -- always a good ploy in
an online discussion.  However, what you've written is completely
irrelevant to my point that Neville Chamberlain was vilified and
hated for decades.  The reason that Chamberlain was hated
and vilified was because of this:

If we're going to have any success in predicting the shape of this crisis, we need to learn from the last one, and that requires shedding of the caricatured stereotypes regarding Nazi Germany in favor of analyzing it honestly.

The agreement in your picture of Chamberlain was the agreement to cede the Sudetenland, so it has everything to do with what I wrote.  Chamberlain was vilified only after his policies had failed to work; before then, the British public supported him over Churchill because before then, his policies were working, at least in the sense that their weaknesses hadn't been revealed yet..

Quote:But if you consider yourself an expert on Russia and Europe, perhaps you could answer
several questions that I'm frequently asked, but have no answer for.

Some of these questions are: Will Russia invade Ukraine?  Will Russia
invade Georgia?  Will there be a new war between Germany and Russia?
If so, will France side with Russia?  Which country will England side
with?  Will Russia invade other East European countries?  Will Russia
and Turkey have a new war in the Balkans, in Crimea, and in the
Caucasus?  What will happen with Greece and Italy?

So it would be helpful if you tackle those questions.

I'm more of an expert on China than Russia, which is why I knew all along that China didn't hate the US, something that you only figured out recently.  That said, I'm happy to take a whack at your questions, not that you're interested in actual answers.

The first two are easy:  Russia has already invaded Georgia and Ukraine.  Fortunately the US response was not total appeasement, so Russia has not been encouraged as much as prewar Germany to double down on their escapades.

Will there be a war between Germany and Russia?  The crisis war isn't likely to start between Germany and Russia, but then nor did WWII.  Would France side with Russia?  France never sided with Russia in WWII, so I'm not sure where this question is coming from.

Which country will England side with?  England will side with the US.  Will Russia invade other East European countries, in addition to Ukraine?  They will invade the Baltic states if they think an opportunity arises to do so without risking a war with the US.  Given US foreign policy tends to change substantially every few years, I suppose that means they will invade them eventually.  A mistake in assessing whether there's risk of war with the US in this case is one of the candidates for starting the crisis war, though such a mistake isn't likely under Putin.

Will Russia and Turkey have a new war?  Not in the Balkans and not in Crimea; Turkey doesn't have the interests in those areas that the Ottoman Empire did.  In the Caucasus?  That's more likely, though it's far from a sure thing.

What will happen in Greece and Italy?  Greece will likely continue to be bailed out by the EU if necessary, with the EU continuing to impose austerity if they grant bailouts.  With New Democracy winning an outright majority, they have an opportunity to use appropriate supply side interventions to guide Greece to a full economic recovery.  Whether they'll actually do so under the new prime minister is another question.  You can tell the money grubbing readers that ask this question that Greece is likely to have an economic recovery, but to do their own due diligence; either way, Greece specifically is not highly relevant to the shape of the crisis.

I think Italy is not likely to require a bailout, but if it does, it will get one, while undergoing severe austerity as in Greece.  Again, Italy is not highly relevant to the crisis, and only money grubbers and Italians are interested in this question.

[pbrower2a]

(08-01-2019, 11:01 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-01-2019, 12:02 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: No, the Boomers are not running things, and this has been true
since the Fourth Turning began in 2003.  I've written dozens of
articles on the financial crisis, and it's clear what happened.
The Gen-Xers obtained advanced degrees in "financial engineering"
in the 1990s, and used those skills to create fraudulent
synthetic subprime mortgage bonds, and sold them to Boomers
because they hate Boomers.  The Boomers in the banks who supposedly
"ran things" did not understand how they worked, but only knew
that they were making a lot of money for the bank.  So the Gen-Xers
were running things, and caused the financial crisis.

I've personally seen things in the computer industry where Gen-Xers
did unbelievably stupid things, because they wanted to screw Boomers.
The epitome was the Healthcare.gov project which was the greatest
software development disaster in history, and was run by Gen-Xers.
It's in contrast to the global Y2K remediation project, which was run
by Silents and Boomers, and which was the greatest and most successful
software development project in history.

Never blame on malice what can be explained by incompetence.

The proximate cause of the financial crisis was probably Gen X pragmatism, though combined with a Boomer created system that created plenty of moral hazard to interact with the pragmatism.  Gen X loan writers certainly wrote a lot of bogus loans, but it was economically bankrupt mortgage affirmative action, along with subsequent government money to soak up the loans, that created the environment where bogus loans were profitable to write.

That crisis itself was just part of the normal business cycle, though.  It was the bailouts which raised the issue to the level where it might be important to a generational crisis.  The bailouts happened under Bush, a Boomer.

Healthcare.gov reflected incompetency, yes, but so have other software initiatives through the years; it had nothing to do with the crisis.

I don't know what generation is to blame for establishing a system of rewards for reckless lending. Maybe much of the fault lies in giant banks gobbling up smaller regional banks that could not insulate themselves from incompetence or recklessness. By default in our economic system, bankers got deputized with the responsibility to say no to poorly-structured financing of cloying supplicants for loans by ensuring that the borrower gets burned even worse than the lender if the borrower cannot meet the terms. That means collateral in the form of large down-payments or other assets put at risk.

Bankers became more entrepreneurial as bigger risk-takers for bigger profits, and that opened the door to the corrupt speculative boom of the Double-Zero Decade and the ensuing meltdown. See also the Roaring Twenties, eighty years earlier. It may be surprising that banking works best as a cottage industry in which low pay attracts the laziest, least imaginative, and most timid employees to do white-collar work -- but we need that if banking is to keep other people's money from becoming "opium".

Quote:

Quote: Wrote:So you're defending and excusing Hitler -- always a good ploy in
an online discussion.  However, what you've written is completely
irrelevant to my point that Neville Chamberlain was vilified and
hated for decades.  The reason that Chamberlain was hated
and vilified was because of this:

If we're going to have any success in predicting the shape of this crisis, we need to learn from the last one, and that requires shedding of the caricatured stereotypes regarding Nazi Germany in favor of analyzing it honestly.

The agreement in your picture of Chamberlain was the agreement to cede the Sudetenland, so it has everything to do with what I wrote.  Chamberlain was vilified only after his policies had failed to work; before then, the British public supported him over Churchill because before then, his policies were working, at least in the sense that their weaknesses hadn't been revealed yet..

Beyond any question -- this Crisis may have characteristics of earlier Crises, but it will not replicate any Crisis here or elsewhere in detail. I still see the Spanish Civil War far more relevant to this Crisis than the last one, the one before that (the slavery and secession Crisis), or the one before that (the American Revolution and pre-Constitutional anarchy). Internal polarization of American politics and mass culture is far more dangerous to America than is any current foreign threat.

Chamberlain bought time for Britain with the Sudetenland, which would have been a reasonable stopping point for Hitler had Hitler had any integrity. Hitler took over the Czech part of Czechoslovakia and established a satellite state in Slovakia without justification other than his desire to dismember Poland. Chamberlain did parley with the Soviet Union in the summer of 1939, but the Soviet terms were too harsh; those would have required that Britain accede to Soviet takeovers of territories not theirs. Hitler of course had no qualms about consigning the Baltic Republics, Finland, eastern pre-war Poland and northeastern pre-war Romania to the Soviet Union.

The story of the time was that no British government dared have Churchill in it because Churchill would have offended Hitler. Once Hitler invaded Poland, such was no longer a concern.

Quote:

Quote:But if you consider yourself an expert on Russia and Europe, perhaps you could answer
several questions that I'm frequently asked, but have no answer for.

Some of these questions are: Will Russia invade Ukraine?  Will Russia
invade Georgia?  Will there be a new war between Germany and Russia?
If so, will France side with Russia?  Which country will England side
with?  Will Russia invade other East European countries?  Will Russia
and Turkey have a new war in the Balkans, in Crimea, and in the
Caucasus?  What will happen with Greece and Italy?

So it would be helpful if you tackle those questions.

I'm more of an expert on China than Russia, which is why I knew all along that China didn't hate the US, something that you only figured out recently.  That said, I'm happy to take a whack at your questions, not that you're interested in actual answers.

The first two are easy:  Russia has already invaded Georgia and Ukraine.  Fortunately the US response was not total appeasement, so Russia has not been encouraged as much as prewar Germany to double down on their escapades.

Will there be a war between Germany and Russia?  The crisis war isn't likely to start between Germany and Russia, but then nor did WWII.  Would France side with Russia?  France never sided with Russia in WWII, so I'm not sure where this question is coming from.

Which country will England side with?  England will side with the US.  Will Russia invade other East European countries, in addition to Ukraine?  They will invade the Baltic states if they think an opportunity arises to do so without risking a war with the US.  Given US foreign policy tends to change substantially every few years, I suppose that means they will invade them eventually.  A mistake in assessing whether there's risk of war with the US in this case is one of the candidates for starting the crisis war, though such a mistake isn't likely under Putin.

Will Russia and Turkey have a new war?  Not in the Balkans and not in Crimea; Turkey doesn't have the interests in those areas that the Ottoman Empire did.  In the Caucasus?  That's more likely, though it's far from a sure thing.

What will happen in Greece and Italy?  Greece will likely continue to be bailed out by the EU if necessary, with the EU continuing to impose austerity if they grant bailouts.  With New Democracy winning an outright majority, they have an opportunity to use appropriate supply side interventions to guide Greece to a full economic recovery.  Whether they'll actually do so under the new prime minister is another question.  You can tell the money grubbing readers that ask this question that Greece is likely to have an economic recovery, but to do their own due diligence; either way, Greece specifically is not highly relevant to the shape of the crisis.

I think Italy is not likely to require a bailout, but if it does, it will get one, while undergoing severe austerity as in Greece.  Again, Italy is not highly relevant to the crisis, and only money grubbers and Italians are interested in this question.

Russia sponsored break-away movements within Ukrainian sovereign territory to establish pro-Russian governments that would request incorporation into Russia at an opportune time, which is complete in Crimea. I am tempted to believe that Russia would be satisfied with a puppet government in Ukraine which is as a whole too big to digest.

With Greece, lowered expectations will solve much of the problem. Greeks need recognize that to live like Germans they will have to move to Germany or that to live like Americans they will have to move to America. If you are talking about Reagan as a model for Greece, then Reagan's supply-side economics did more to cut expectations of an easy life doing easy work among late-wave Boomers and Generation X than to stimulate wealth by facilitating investment. When Reagan was President, lots of young people with considerable talent ended up doing low-paid work in stores, restaurants, and the hospitality trade -- and we got unusual competence in those important activities at the time. (Indeed, the retail industry went into serious decline as more opportunities appeared for young, talented people who saw retailing as a nightmare for abysmal pay). People with dreams of doing something else learned the most important activity in the 'new' economy -- marketing -- instead of being bureaucrats in the manufacturing industry doomed to decline as a share of the American economy. Capitalism has evolved from making things to hustling things, unsettling as such might be for bourgeois sensibilities.

Of course, taking the 'hustle' ethos of the new capitalism to the banking business facilitated the ruin of many banks. Anyone can sell a potential borrower with a huge dream and little foundation for it into taking out a loan. Banking is most successful when it has a tight control on the borrower, namely the threat of foreclosure on good terms for the bank.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Aug-19 World View -- Japan-Korea relations deteriorate quickly after surprise trade standoff

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan-Korea relations deteriorate quickly after surprise trade standoff
  
• South Korea's Moon: 'We won't be defeated again' by Japan
  
• History of Korea, Japan and China
  

****
**** Japan-Korea relations deteriorate quickly after surprise trade standoff
****


South Korea's president Moon Jae-in and Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe

The surprise trade dispute between South Korea and Japan that we
reported three weeks ago has been become increasingly vitriolic.
( "17-Jul-19 World View -- Japan - South Korea trade dispute worsens"
)

The Koreans have been demanding reparations for Japanese atrocities
committed during World War II. Japan and South Korea agreed to
reparations in a treaty in 1965 that the Japanese claim settled the
matter. The Koreans demanded more reparations, and in 2015 Japan and
Korea concluded a bilateral agreement which was intended at the time
as the “final and irreversible” resolution.

However, now a Korean court has ruled that the Japanese must pay
additional reparations to so-called "comfort girls." The Japanese are
seeing this as harassment, and last month they imposed trade sanctions
on chemicals needed for manufacturing chips. The sanctions
particularly target Korean firms Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and LG
Electronics.

Two days ago, Japan took the further step of dropping South Korea from
a so-called "white list" of favored export destinations, and South
Korea retaliated in kind.

****
**** South Korea's Moon: 'We won't be defeated again' by Japan
****

Japan's sanctions have hit South Korea hard, and have generated a
vitriolic backlash in South Korea against Japan.

Millions of South Koreans are boycotting Japanese goods over the
dispute, and several protests have been held throughout the country.
A South Korean man set himself on fire in the center of
Seoul. Supermarket shelves are being emptied of Japanese goods.
Defiant demonstrators have posted films of themselves destroying their
own Japanese cars.

Speaking to a cabinet meeting, President Moon Jae-in vowed angrily
that "we will never let Japan" defeat Korea again:

<QUOTE>"I clearly warn that the Japanese government will be
solely responsible for what happens going forward. We will never
be defeated by Japan again. The Republic of Korea is not the same
Republic of Korea of the past. We will never let Japan, who is the
assailant, speak louder and become offensive towards us. We will
sternly take measures corresponding to Japan’s unjustified
economic retaliations. We have measures to use to counter their
offenses."<END QUOTE>

An editorial in the Korea Times relates the current situation to
Korea's historical relation to Japan, Russia and China:

<QUOTE>"The issue of getting Japanese companies belatedly to
pay compensation for Korean forced laborers during World War II ―
the starting point of the Korea-Japan standoff ― only scratches
the surface of the much bigger issue underneath. ...

His shadows are manifest in two ways: Koreans resent Japan and its
nationalist leader Shinzo Abe for their refusal to inherit the
sins of their ancestors and the obligation to pay for these sins ―
but Koreans worry about their wellbeing, fearing that the fate
that befell them at the turn of the 20th century will revisit
them. ...

Back then, the big powers scrambled to have Korea as a colonial
trophy prize.

In that scramble, imperial Japan cut deals with the U.S., fought
off the Qing Dynasty and the Russian Empire, and absorbed Korea,
then the Joseon Kingdom, before ruling it as ruthless colonial
master for the following 36 years.

The hapless King Gojeong, the last monarch of the ailing Joseon,
was reduced to a pawn being pulled by his father and Queen Min or
Empress Myeongseong. The trio's respective and conflicting
attempts to curry favor with the big powers to save themselves
backfired and collapsed.

The ambience created by the mixture of U.S. President Donald
Trump, China's president for life Xi Jinping, Japan's Abe,
remotely Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, and, last but not least,
North Korea's young autocrat Kim Jong-un, has for no good reasons
spooked present-day Korea in the same manner Joseon must have felt
some 100 years ago."<END QUOTE>

The Japanese and Korean people have hated each other for many
centuries. In the modern era, after the Korean war, the two countries
have remained at a frozen peace because they're both American allies.
But that peace is thawing, now that the survivors of WW II have all
but disappeared.

****
**** History of Korea, Japan and China
****

Historically, Korea has been a Chinese vassal state, forced to pay
tribute to China. So the Koreans hate both the Japanese and the
Chinese. How this will all unfold once war breaks out will not be
pleasant. Those missiles and nuclear weapons that the North Koreans
are developing will be targeting Japan, South Korea and America.
South and North Korea will be in a full scale ground war. Japan and
America will be striking back at both North Korea and China.

Those interested in understanding the history of China, Japan, Korea
and Russia should read my book, "World View: War Between China and
Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series,
Book 2) Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

Sources:

• S Korea warns of security impact if dropped from Japan's easy-trade list (Japan Today, Reuters, 1-Aug-2019)
  
• S. Korea, Japan begin ‘white list’ trade war (Dong-a Ilbo, Korea, 3-Aug-2019)
  
• Duel with Japan: Korea's inevitable coming of age ritual (Korea Times, 2-Aug-2019)
  
• S Korea says it 'won't be defeated again' by Japan (Japan Today, Reuters, 2-Aug-2019)
  
• Head-To-Head: Russia, Japan, South Korea, and China Face-Off in the Skies over the Pacific (National Interest, 2-Aug-2019)
  
• Japan to strike South Korea off trusted export list as rift deepens (BBC, 2-Aug-2019)
  
• 'A selfish, destructive act': Japan and South Korea cut each other from export whitelists as their trade war reignites World War II tensions (Business Insider, 2-Aug-2019)
  
• Japan removes South Korea from trusted trade partner list (DW, 2-Aug-2019)
  
• Japan to remove South Korea from 'white list' of favored trade partners (CNBC, 2-Aug-2019)

Related articles:

• Book Announcement: World View: War between China and Japan - by John J. Xenakis (28-Jun-2019)
  
  
• Japan - South Korea trade dispute worsens (17-Jul-2019)
  
  
• South Korea vs Japan military 'radar lock' feud continues to escalate (20-Jan-2019)
  
  
• Japan-Korea relations worsen over 'comfort women' issue (17-Dec-2018)
  
  
• China funds unauthorized anti-Japan comfort woman statue in Manila, Philippines (28-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Japan and China in confrontation over comfort women (07-Mar-2007)
  
  
• China and Japan really DO hate each other (30-Aug-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
Japan, Shinzo Abe, Russia

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John J. Xenakis
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[Warren Dew]

(08-02-2019, 12:52 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you are talking about Reagan as a model for Greece, then Reagan's supply-side economics did more to cut expectations of an easy life doing easy work among late-wave Boomers and Generation X than to stimulate wealth by facilitating investment.

I see you've been swallowing Eric's leftist propaganda instead of thinking for yourself.

In fact, supply side economics is anything that works with the supply curve.  Typically it operates by reducing effective prices, thus increasing the supply at any given price point, through reductions in taxes.  This principle can operate on capital, sure, but it can also operate on labor, raw materials, and finished goods and services.

In the case of Greece, last time New Democracy was in power, the implemented a tax cut, specifically a cut in the VAT on hotels and restaurants from 23% to 13%, as supply side stimulus for Greece's tourism industry.  This happened in 2013.  The result was an immediate turnaround in the economy from shrinkage to growth:



Of course, that was under a different prime minister.  If the new prime minister does something similar, we'll see further recovery in Greece.