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Generational Dynamics World View
** 13-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong police enter airport with force

With protesters shutting down the airport for another day, Hong Kong
police have entered the airport for the first time, and right at this
moment are using force to disperse the protesters.
Reply
** 13-Aug-2019 Russia-Turkey

(08-12-2019, 09:29 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > It would be ironic if some of Turkey's S-400s end up shooting down
> Russian planes.

Lol! You're right - ironic indeed! It took two years for Putin to
forgive Erdogan the last time the Turks shot down a Russian warplane,
and in the meantime he implemented harsh anti-Turkey sanctions. If
what you're suggesting happened, I don't that Putin would probably
react militarily.
Reply
(08-13-2019, 10:31 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-Aug-2019 Russia-Turkey

(08-12-2019, 09:29 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   It would be ironic if some of Turkey's S-400s end up shooting down
>   Russian planes.  

Lol!  You're right - ironic indeed!  It took two years for Putin to
forgive Erdogan the last time the Turks shot down a Russian warplane,
and in the meantime he implemented harsh anti-Turkey sanctions.  If
what you're suggesting happened, I don't that Putin would probably
react militarily.

H-m-m-m.  I wouldn't assume that the Russians would sell a missile system to Turkey unless an override was hidden in the code somewhere.  Why should they?  The two have been belligerents many times in the past, and there is no love loss between them.  Both nations, and both leaders, are nationalists, and unlikely allies.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
Globalists and Human-rights-ers such as mcconnell, biden, Harris, bush and others are trying to push trump into imposing negative actions against China regarding a potential crackdown in Hong Kong. Globalists are embracing tyranny and anti-freedom of action on the parts nation-states within their own borders.
Reply
** 14-Aug-2019 World View: Peter Navarro's list of China negotiation issues

Peter Navarro is President Trump's Director of Trade and Manufacturing
Policy. He's considered to be a "hardliner" on the China
negotiations.

On tv today, he recited an interesting list of seven structural issues
in China's economy that have to be resolved by trade negotiations:
  • Cyber intrusion into business networks
  • Forced technology transfers in exchange for market access
  • Intellectual property theft
  • Dumping into our markets
  • State owned enterprises which are heavily subsidized
  • Currency manipulation
  • Killing Americans with fentanyl.

It's pretty clear that resolving these issues would take years, if not
decades to be resolved. Furthermore, these criminal activities are
deeply embedded in China's culture, which considers Americans to be
barbarians, and so it's doubtful that they could ever be resolved
without a war.
Reply
** 15-Aug-2019 World View: Thomas Friedman and 'Dell Theory'

The world-famous NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman was on CNBC this
morning, babbling about a lot of stuff, but one thing really caught my
attention.

He was talking about the US-China trade. He was babbling that we
should lift the sanctions a little, and then China will open their
markets a little, and the trade dispute will get resolved that way.
The guy's a complete idiot.

During the CNBC interview, he said the following:

Quote:> "Xi Jinping is one of the most important players in
> the story that we don't know anything about. What we know is that
> last May the US and China actually seemed to be on the verge of a
> deal but the Chinese made a giant U-turn. We know that that
> happened. Why did that happen? What is Xi Jinping thinking?

> We all know what Trump's position is. Does anyone have any clue
> what Xi's position is? Is he in favor of no market opening over
> ther? So I don't know the Chinese have done a very good job of
> explaining their position well, and it's one of the things that
> really concerns me."

This guy is supposed to be a respected journalist and worldwide expert
on the whole world. And he has no clue what Xi Jinping wants? Well,
at least his cluelessness "really concerns" him, so we can breathe a
sigh of relief.

I've said this before -- people my age have wondered throughout our
lives how Hitler could have so thoroughly fooled the British, when he
told Neville Chamberlain "peace in our time" as he was actively
building a war machine with plans to attack Britain. How is that
possible?

Listening to Thomas Friedman, we can see how it happened. It's
astonishing to see it happen again. Although Thomas Friedman is like
Neville Chamberlain, Donald Trump is like Winston Churchill, which is
fortunate for our country. The contrast between Thomas Friedman and
Donald Trump in terms of basic intelligence is mind-boggling.

Thomas Friedman is the author of what he calls "The Dell Theory of
Conflict Prevention," which states:

Quote:> "No two countries that are both part of a major global
> supply chain, like Dell’s, will ever fight a war against each
> other as long as they are both part of the same global supply
> chain."
> http://flatiswhereitisat.blogspot.com/20...flict.html
>

How can anyone be so stupid?
Reply
*** 16-Aug-19 World View -- US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade
  • Returning to 'Normal'
  • Results of sanctions on Huawei Electronics
  • Planning for the future in a chaotic world
  • The broader picture

****
**** US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade
****


[Image: g190815b.jpg]
Does selling capacitors to Huawei violate Trump's China trade sanctions?

Much of international trade is in chaos, because of the US-China trade
war, and especially because of US sanctions on Huawei Technologies and
other Chinese firms for security reasons. Many international firms
are going to take a revenue hits because they have to do less business
with China. Furthermore, they're unable to plan effectively for the
rest of 2019 and 2020 because President Donald Trump changes the
details of the US sanctions rules frequently. Trump has announced
two major changes in the last week alone -- delay of some tariffs,
and ending all business with Huawei.

Trump has received a great deal of support both domestically and
internationally for his US-China trade sanctions, because China has
repeatedly lied cheated in trade as a matter of course for decades.
Even Democratic party leader Chuck Shumer was counseling Trump to
"hang tough." Those supporting the sanctions say, "this has to be
done sometime, and if not now, then when?"

****
**** Returning to 'Normal'
****


However, almost everyone, particularly the Chinese, would like the
sanctions to end, so that things can return to "normal."
For the sanctions to end, there has to be a "trade deal," and so
there have been frequent predictions of a trade deal in the mainstream
media, many of which have proved to be wishful thinking.

The biggest example was the trade deal that was supposed to be signed
at the end of May. During negotiations, the Chinese made commitments
to resolve core complaints and write the changes into law -- theft of
U.S. intellectual property and trade secrets; forced technology
transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and
currency manipulation. But at the beginning of May, China
reneged on every commitment, and demaneded that the agreement be
signed anyway.

This is a typical Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tactic -- agree to
concessions, renege on concessions, and demand that everyone else
honor their own commitments. This is the script that American
presidents have followed in negotiations with China and North Korea
for decades.

The CCP officials undoubtedly expected this to work again, believing
that Trump would be politically forced to sign anyway, being forced
to do so by Democrats in the US and by leftists internationally.

The CCP officials were apparently doubly shocked first because Trump
didn't follow that script, and second because he received support from
the Democrats and politicians worldwide. Trump vowed to raise tariffs
on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, and threatened
to raise them even more if China reneged on its existing agreements.

As I've said many times in the past, North Korea will not give up it
nuclear missiles, no matter what Trump does, and China will not give
up stealing intellectual property and trade secrets, no matter what
Trump does. Trump knows that too.

Since May, there has been no progress on US-China trade talks.

Peter Navarro is President Trump's Director of Trade and Manufacturing
Policy. He's considered to be a "hardliner" on the China
negotiations. He appeared on television this week, and recited a list
of seven structural issues in China's economy that have to be resolved
by trade negotiations:
  • Cyber intrusion into business networks
  • Forced technology transfers in exchange for market access
  • Intellectual property theft
  • Dumping into our markets
  • State owned enterprises which are heavily subsidized
  • Currency manipulation
  • Killing Americans with fentanyl.

These criminal activities are deeply embedded in China's culture,
which considers Americans to be barbarians, and so it's doubtful that
they could ever be resolved without a war.

Some reports indicate that the Chinese are hoping a new American
president to take office in 2020, and be more "reasonable." The
problem with that reasoning is that even a Democratic president
would be unable politically to simply approve of the Chinese
stealing intellectuarl property, forcing technology transfers,
and so forth.

In other words, there is no compromise that resolves this problem. We
can look to the North Korean talks for an analogy that we can learn
from. In that case, the Trump negotiations with Kim Jong-un produced
a "charm offensive" that postponed some North Korean tests, but Trump
did not end the sanctions, and North Korea did not end development of
nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

****
**** Results of sanctions on Huawei Electronics
****


The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may have the
effect of raising prices, but no apparent consequences beyond
that. However, the sanctions on Huawei Technologies are having
a major geopolitical effect.

Of course, it's not just America that's block Huawei. Officials in
more and more countries are becoming convinced that Huawei is building
undetectable backdoors into their routers and other devices. These
backdoors could be activated by China's military using, for example, a
secret 1024-bit key, giving the military control of the device.

The US and a number of other Western countries have placed severe
restrictions on installations of Huawei 5G routers and other internet
equipment on networks in their countries. As a result, many countries
have restrictions on the purchase of Huawei equipment.

However, Trump's sanctions on Huawei have gone a lot farther,
and these sanctions are creating a chaotic situation for companies
trying to plan a strategy for the next year.

The problem is that China's government, through its Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), is forcing as many goverments as they can to install
Huawei 5G networks. Since China's government is heavily subsidizing
Huawei, Huawei's devices are being widely installed in any countries
where they're permitted. This means that, in case of war, China's
military will be in control of networks in those countries.

The Trump administration has placed additional restrictions on Huawei
to slowdown the company's rapid takeover of portions of the internet.
The Trump administration is restricting sales of Huawei products to
American companies for security reasons. But the Trump administration
has gone further, and is also restricting sales of American-made
products to Huawei. The objective is to disrupt Hunwei's supply
chain, to slow their takeover of the internet as much as possible.

Components manufactured outside of the United States of course would
not be affected by the US ban. However, it's more complicated than
that, because components manufactured outside the US may still have
components or materials manufactured within the US. The US has
blocked Huawei from buying goods made from 25% or more of
U.S.-originated technologies or materials.

****
**** Planning for the future in a chaotic world
****


An example of the confusion many companies are facing is Kyoto, Japan,
based Murata Manufacturing. Murata supplies capacitors for Huawei-made
base towers and smartphones.

The capacitors made by Murata are heavily used in electronic circuits
to stabilize voltage and power flow. A smartphone may contain
hundreds of capacitors, while an electric vehicle like a Tesla uses
about 10,000.

It would seem that Murata's business with Huawei is completely outside
the reach of the US sanctions on Huawei. That's why, on May 23,
Murata's headquarters office in Kyoto, Japan, that "its business had
not been affected by the U.S. move."

However, this statement apparently caused something of a panic in the
Murata's North American division. On May 30, Murata Electronics,
North America (MENA), issued a very strong statement that contradicted
the corporate statement issued just a week earlier. This statement
said:

<QUOTE>"Murata Electronics, North America (MENA), must not
export, re-export or transfer (in country) any items (hardware,
software, technology) that are subject to the US Export
Administration Regulations to those who are listed in the Entity
List. Public domain information available on Murata's web site is
the only technical information available to these
companies. Direct sales to any of these Huawei business entities
or indirect sales known or suspected to be routed to the listed
Huawei entities is to immediately cease.

Communications between, or on behalf of, MENA and Huawei, or any
Huawei affiliated companies regardless if they are included in the
Entity list or not should immediately cease. This direction
includes communications such as meetings, email, phone, sample
support, product promotion, technology discussions, quotes, or any
other activity whether written or verbal.

Out of an abundance of caution, MENA is ceasing all sales and
communications with Huawei business entities regardless of whether
the Huawei business is on the Entity List or not.

MENA customer codes tied to Huawei affiliated companies will be
deactivated."<END QUOTE>


This is a pretty aggressive policy statement, issued on May 30, in
compliance with US requirements, on the part of the North American
branch of Murata. It appears to a reaction to the corporate
statement, to make it clear that MENA was complying with the
sanctions, even if corporate might or might not.

Since then, Murata's Japanese offices have apparently not made any
further public statements. Murata's June 30 quarterly financial
statement made only a vague reference to the issue:

<QUOTE>"In the global economic environment for the period
under review, a slowdown in the economy in China caused by the
trade friction with the U.S. was increasingly apparent. While
employment growth continued in the U.S., economic prospects
gradually worsened, and in Europe, political uncertainty coincided
with the weakening of the region's economy. The prolonged
U.S.-China trade friction is increasingly having an impact on the
global economy, causing growing uncertainty about its
future."<END QUOTE>


These are pretty clearly weasel words written by a lawyer, since they
supposedly state a policy while saying nothing.

But one can sympathize with the complexity of Murata's problems.
Murata has numerous plants, sales offices, and research facilities in
China, so it's not surprising that the company is unable to arrive at
a firm policy with respect to Huawei. According to research by
Goldman Sachs, Murata will lose $90 million in operating profit
because of the Huawei restrictions, and Japan's major electronic parts
manufacturers together will lose $230 million in profits.

As another example, Osaka-based Panasonic Corp. has had similar
confusion. On May 23, the company said that it was suspending
supplies of some components to Huawei, but issued a clarifying
statement on May 24 saying, "No transactions with Huawei have been
suspended at the moment. We are still making checks whether the ban
applies to our products."

Huawei reacted last year by preparing for a worst case scenario.
Huawei is diversifying its suppliers, and it's developing some of its
own components instead of depending on suppliers. Huawei told its
suppliers last year that it wanted to build up a 6-12 month inventory
of the most crucial components

****
**** The broader picture
****


Every company that does business with Huawei is likely to be confused
right now, if only because President Trump himself seems to change
policy regularly. On Friday of last week, Trump said that "it's
easier not to do business at all with Huawei," and he added, "We're
not going to do business with Huawei. That doesn't mean we won't
agree to something if and when we make a trade deal, but we're not
going to be doing business with Huawei."

Trump said that China was breaking its commitment to purchase more
American farm goods, and indicated that if China started fulfilling
that promise, then he would revisit the Huawei decision. For Murata,
Panasonic, or any other firm that sells components to Huawei, this
means that it must be ready to change policies at any time.

There's a broader picture here. In the 1980s, the US imposed
sanctions on Poland and South Africa, and they apparently played a
part in restoring democracy in both countries. I remember analysts at
the time describing how sanctions were a much better way to solve
problems than using military action. Today, many countries are
imposing sanctions, including the US, the EU, the UK, Japan, South
Korea, and others. It may be true that sanctions solve problems, but
only in a generational Awakening era. Today, in a generational Crisis
era, they have the opposite effect. Instead of acceding to demands
backed by sanctions, the targets impose counter-sanctions. There is
now a large global network of interlocking sanctions involving many
countries, and this is slowing growth and strengthening the hands of
hardliners in many countries and falling growth forecasts.

This international trade war is in context of a number of things that
are almost beyond belief in modern times:
  • There are $16 trillion in government bonds globally with
    negative yields. The US Treasuries are almost the only major government
    bonds in the world that pay interest, although the interest rate
    has been falling. In almost all other countries, if you lend the
    government money by buying a government bond, then you have to
    pay interest to the government to keep your money safe.

  • The US stock markets are in a historically high super-bubble,
    as measured by price/earnings valuations. The same is true for
    other major stock markets.

  • China's rate of growth has been falling for four quarters.
    Worldwide economic growth has been slowing globally.

  • The confrontation between Beijing and Hong Kong appears to
    be certain to worsen.

  • Criminal activities by China -- annexation of South China Sea,
    ethnic cleansing and enslavement of Uighurs in East Turkistan
    (Xinjiang), violence targeting Christians, Buddhists and Muslims --
    are growing.

  • The confrontation between India and Pakistan in Kashmir worsens
    every day. On Thursday, there was gunfire across the Line of Control,
    so this could explode any day.

There's a feeling these days that the world is headed for some kind of
tipping point. In particular, there is a good chance of a global
recession in the next few months, and that could trigger a chain
reaction of crises in any of the items in the above list.

So the correct analogy to what's happening today is not Poland and
South Korea in the 1980s.

One analogy is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which was passed by
Congress in 1930, during the Great Depression. it was particularly
devastating to Japan, as it cut off Japan's exports to America of
silk, its greatest cash crop. A year later, a desperate Japan invaded
Manchuria.

Another analogy today is 1941. Japan invaded China in 1937, and
launched the Sino-Japanese war. On August 1, 1941, US president
Franklin Roosevelt showed his displeasure by establishing an embargo
on oil and gasoline exports to Japan. Three months later, Japan
attacked Pearl Harbor.

You don't have to understand these analogies to know that the world is
an international pressure cooker today, a welter of tariffs,
sanctions, annexations, genocide, ethnic cleansing, border disputes,
and militarization. As I showed with numerous examples in my book,
world wars don't begin with cataclysmic events like the bombing of
Pearl Harbor. They begin with tiny conflicts that grow into
cataclysmic events over a period of months.

Those interested in understanding the history of China, Japan, Korea
and Russia should read my book, "World View: War Between China and
Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series,
Book 2) Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
Huawei Technologies, Peter Navarro, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Japan, Murata Manufacturing, Panasonic Corp.,
India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, Manchuria

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John J. Xenakis
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Reply
** 19-Aug-2019 World View Notes: North Korea, Hong Kong, Kashmir Afghanistan


****
**** Contents
****

-- North Korea: Make boiled head of a cow laugh
-- Hong Kong's peaceful demonstrations
-- Kashmir still boiling, but more slowly
-- Horrific terrorist attack on wedding party in Kabul, Afghanistan


****
**** North Korea: Make boiled head of a cow laugh
****

[Image: 688b5dba-c07f-11e9-8f25-9b5536624008_ima...074450.jpg]
  • Child dictator Kim Jong-un and his groupies shared a laugh
    last week over projectile launches (KCNA, Reuters, SCMP)

North Korea launched test firings of an unspecified new weapon on
Saturday. Child dictator Kim Jong-un expressed “great satisfaction”
over his military’s “mysterious and amazing success rates” in recent
testing activity and vowed to build up “invincible military
capabilities no one dare provoke." This is the sixth round of
projectile launches since late July.

Donald Trump has downplayed the significance of these missile
launches, pointing out these are short-range missiles, and do not
violate Kim's agreement with Trump not to test nuclear weapons or
long-range ballistic missiles.

One analyst said that Kim is getting frustrated because these
projectile launches are not causing the international news panic that
he's enjoyed in the past, and the "blame" for that is Trump's
downplaying the tests.

South Korea's President Moon Jae-in called for Korean unification by
2045 and called for North Korea to choose "economic prosperity over
its nuclear program."

A North Korean official ridiculed Moon's remarks, and said that "the
boiled head of a cow would fall into a side-splitting laughter."


Kim Jong-un expresses ‘great satisfaction’ over North Korean weapons
tests
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia...rth-korean
(SCMP, 19-Aug-2019)


****
**** Hong Kong's peaceful demonstrations
****


[Image: 52e9d80a-c260-11e9-ad8c-27551fb90b05_ima...200052.JPG]
  • Peaceful protesters in Hong Kong on Sunday (SCMP)


There were hundreds of thousands of protesters in Hong Kong on Sunday,
despite the pouring rain. The protests were peaceful, giving rise to
hopes that the protests would fizzle out in time for China's big
independence day celebrations on October 1.

For this, I would quote the Greek philosopher Aristotle (384-322 BC):
"One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day; similarly one
day or brief time of happiness does not make a person entirely happy."

But pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong threatened further
unrest unless the government meets their demands -- now.

‘Now is the time to meet demands’: pro-democracy lawmakers and
protesters warn Hong Kong’s embattled leaders
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/poli...makers-and
(SCMP, 19-Aug-2019)


****
**** Kashmir still boiling, but more slowly
****

India is lifting some restrictions in the India-governed portion
of Kashmir. Some phone service has been restored, and some schools
have reopened, but much of the area is still in lockdown.

The Pakistani people seem to be pretty furious about what India did
-- revoking Article 370, taking away Kashmir's special privileges.
Prime minister Imran Khan is using diplomatic threats against
India to cool the anger in Pakistan, but it's hard to predict
where this is going to go.

** 10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190810



****
**** Horrific terrorist attack on wedding party in Kabul, Afghanistan
****

Dozens of people were killed on Saturday evening by an explosion in
Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan. The explosion attacked a Shia
Hazara wedding. Ethnic Hazaras, and other Shia groups, are often
targeted by jihadist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban vehemently denied responsibility. However, ISIS
has claimed responsibility. There have been an increasing number
of terror attacks across Afghanistan claimed by ISIS.

As usual, a terror attack by ISIS does not mean that a bunch
of ISIS thugs in Syria packed their bags and came to Kabul to
blow up a wedding. What's happening is that some jihadist
groups in Afghanistan are claiming allegiance with ISIS rather
than with al-Qaeda. It's possible that the ISIS groups are
a younger generation, breaking away from the older generations
in Taliban. One analyst suggested that the ISIS groups came
from Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), the Pakistan Taliban, which has
had differences with the Afghan Taliban.

Trump wants to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan, and so the US
is negotiating with the Taliban, where the US will withdraw its troops
and the Taliban will promise to be nice.

That's about as laughable as anything else going on today.
However, the "peace talks" may be derailed by ISIS attacks.
Reply
** 20-Aug-2019 World View: Pompeo links Hong Kong with trade war


US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on Tuesday made an interesting
argument relating the US-China trade negotiatons to the situation
in Hong Kong.

By way of introduction, Pompeo did not say that the US supports the
current protesters, but he said that the US supports the right to
protest:

Quote: "President Trump captured this, I think, perfectly
across the weekend when he said we support democracy, we support
liberty. We very much want to make sure that those folks that have
the desire in their hearts to protest -- to speak out on behalf of
their own freedom, their own liberty, to do so. And the Chinese
government should respect their right to speak out in a way that
they’re speaking."

With that introduction he made the connection between the US-China
trade negotiations and the Hong Kong protests:

Quote: "China needs to fulfill its promises. One of the
challenges in the trade deal is you have to make sure that China
actually lives up to the commitments that it would make. In Hong
Kong, this Chinese government made a promise that it has a central
understanding that there’d be one country, two systems and they
need to live up to that promise."

Pompeo was alluding to the 1984 Joint Declaration on Hong Kong, signed
by China and Britain, in which China guaranteed that Hong Kong is to
be a "Special Administrative Region" of China, having its own laws,
freedoms, financial system and judicial system, for 50 years, from
1997 until 2047. This is known as "one country, two systems."

China has already said that the 1984 agreement was a historical
document that was no longer valid. Pompeo is saying that if
you violate the 1984 agreement, then we don't believe anything
else you say.

---- Source:

-- Pompeo Says China Should Respect Hong Kong Protesters' Rights
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ers-rights
(Bloomberg, 20-Aug-2019)
Reply
** 21-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong clash

Big clash between protesters and riot police going on in
Hong Kong right this minute.

It's only Wednesday. This raises concerns about what will
happen this weekend.
Reply
(08-21-2019, 09:48 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong clash

Big clash between protesters and riot police going on in
Hong Kong right this minute.

It's only Wednesday.  This raises concerns about what will
happen this weekend.

I'm more concerned about Taiwan.  This entire affair has to be unsettling there.  Any thoughts of declaring independence and walking away have to be off the table while DJT is in the White House.  Just too risky.  Then again, not everything is controllable, and Xi may decide that now is the perfect time to crack down.  Who knows?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan

(08-21-2019, 06:23 PM)David Horn Wrote: > I'm more concerned about Taiwan. This entire affair has to be
> unsettling there. Any thoughts of declaring independence and
> walking away have to be off the table while DJT is in the White
> House. Just too risky. Then again, not everything is
> controllable, and Xi may decide that now is the perfect time to
> crack down. Who knows?

The Chinese have always made it clear that they will annex Taiwan to
China at some time, by military force if necessary. They know that
independence sentiment is growing, as survivors of the communist
revolution civil war die off and are replaced by younger generations
with greater allegiance to the West. Those sentiments have been
growing even faster, as you suggest, because of the CCP's thuggish
activities in Hong Kong. So a war of annexation on Taiwan is a
foregone conclusion, but the timing of such a war is independent of
any action in Hong Kong, since the latter is already part of China.
Reply
** 22-Aug-2019 World View: South Korea ends intelligence sharing with Japan

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> South Korea axes pact to share military intelligence with Japan

> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asi...story.html

> ...

> It seems things like this happen whenever the left takes power in
> South Korea. You'd think the Koreans would have noticed the
> pattern by now. Moon is turning into a disaster at one of the
> worst times possible.


This disagreement goes far, far deeper than a simple political
dispute. See the following:

** 3-Aug-19 World View -- Japan-Korea relations deteriorate quickly after surprise trade standoff
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190803
Reply
(08-22-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan

The Chinese have always made it clear that they will annex Taiwan to
China at some time, by military force if necessary.  They know that
independence sentiment is growing, as survivors of the communist
revolution civil war die off and are replaced by younger generations
with greater allegiance to the West.

It isn't allegiance to the west; the nationalists were more aligned with the west than are today's generation.  It's just that they don't dream of somehow invading the mainland and retaking it.
Reply
*** 23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Syria regime and Russia major victory in Idlib, capturing Khan Sheikhoun
  • Syria attacks Turkey's military convoy
  • Russia admits its ground troops are fighting in Idlib
  • Turkey and Russia on a military collision path
  • Syria: The crucible of a major Mideast war
  • Other major geopolitical issues

****
**** Syria regime and Russia major victory in Idlib, capturing Khan Sheikhoun
****


[Image: g190822b.jpg]
An Arab cartoon expressing the view that Vladimir Putin blindly bombs wherever Bashar al-Assad tells him, making Putin the puppet of puppetmaster al-Assad (Mideast Monitor)

The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, supported by Russia's
army and airforce, has achieved a major victory in al-Assad's campaign
to recapture Idlib province from anti-Assad rebels. This comes after
weeks when the Idlib war was at a standstill and frozen in place.

Syrian and Russian forces entered the strategic town of Khan Sheikhoun
on Wednesday, after capturing another strategically important town,
Al-Hobeit, last week. These two towns lie on the key M5 highway that
connects Damascus with the northern city of Aleppo. Anti-Assad forces
have been in control of these towns since they were captured in 2014,
so their recapture represents a major symbolic and strategic victory
for al-Assad.

As the Syrian and Russian forces closed in, all the "moderate"
anti-Assad rebel fighters, many of them supported by Turkey, withdrew.
Reports indicate that they moved north and east, towards the Turkey
border, to try to prevent the Syrian and Russian forces from
proceeding further.

Another group of anti-Assad rebels, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front) has issued a statement
that the withdrawal is a "redeployment" of its fighters to the
southern part of Khan Sheikhoun from where they would continue to
defend their territory.

There are over three million people in Idlib, most of whom fled there
from Bashar al-Assad's violence in other regions. About 70,000 are
anti-Assad rebels, and rest are families of men, women and children.
Bashar al-Assad considers all three million of them to be
"terrorists," and are to be exterminated. He's made it pretty clear
that this is his intention, although has hasn't specifically used the
word "exterminated."

Now Idlib is being bombed and attacked by Syrian regime and Russian
forces as happened in previous "de-escalation zones," including
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, but there is no other place to flee to. This
is the last major region for al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing
of his Arab Sunni political opposition. Al-Assad is particularly
targeting hospitals, schools and markets, in order to kill as many
women and children as possible. However, al-Assad has not yet begun
using chemical weapons -- chlorine gas, phosphorous and Sarin gas --
as he did regularly in other regions.

Many families in Khan Sheikhoun and the surrounding villages are
afraid of leaving their homes for fear of losing their land, their
crops, their animals, and their belongings. Tens of thousands of
families have left their homes in the last two days alone, and are
fleeing north and west toward the border with Turkey. The regions
closer to the Turkey border are becoming more and more crowded, since
Turkey, which already hosts 3.5 million Syrian refugees, has closed
the border. At a time of his choosing, al-Assad and his Russian
puppets will be able mop up the crowds of civilian families all at
once.

****
**** Syria attacks Turkey's military convoy
****


As a result of the so-called "Astana process" last year, Turkey and
Russia agreed that Idlib was a "de-escalation zone," and Turkey would
police it, and take the guns away from the anti-Assad rebels. Turkey
has set up a dozen small military bases (observation posts) around the
region, as part of that agreement, but has not been successful in
disarming the anti-Assad rebels.

These Turkish observation posts have been attacked repeatedly by
artillery from the Syrian army. Turkey has repeatedly demanded that
Russia keep al-Assad under control, but Russia has been unable or
unwilling to do so.

The situation became much more alarming on August 17 when, for the
first time, Syrian warplanes targeted a Turkish military convoy on its
way to an observation post near Khan Sheikhoun. Three civilians were
killed and 12 wounded.

Turkey's Defense Ministry blamed the Russians, saying that Turkey had
supplied the Russians with advance information on the route that the
convoy would be taking. However, an al-Assad spokesman said that the
convoy was attacked on purpose, because "Turkish vehicles loaded with
munitions... are heading toward Khan Sheikhoun to help the
terrorists." In other words, Syria used the information to locate the
convoy, and targeted it on purpose.

None of this is surprising. The UN is conducting an investgation of
Syria and Russia for targeting hospitals and schools. The UN had
supplied the Syrians and Russians with the coordinates of the hospital
and school in Idlib, so that they would not be targeted by warplanes.
Instead, the Syrians and Russians used those coordinates to target
schools and hospitals on purpose.

****
**** Russia admits its ground troops are fighting in Idlib
****


During 2015, I repeatedly reported that the army of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad was near collapse, after al-Assad's army suffered a
number of significant major setbacks, and was being crippled by
massive desertions. ( "8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse"
)

At that time, al-Assad was saved by the massive intervention by
Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. It's been known that Iran's troops from
the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been fighting alongside
al-Assad's troops in Syria. It's been known that Hezbollah troops,
under orders from their Iranian puppetmasters, have also been fighting
alongside al-Assad's troops in Syria.

Russia's warplanes have been an essential part of al-Assad's slaughter
of his Sunni Arab enemies. But Russia has always denied that Russian
troops were fighting in Syria, even though numerous reports said that
they were.

However, during a press conference on Tuesday, Russia's foreign
minister Sergei Lavrov finally confirmed that "There are Russian
soldiers on the ground in the Syrian province of Idlib."

He added that Russia would respond to any attack on its soldiers in
Syria. That would be a warning to Russia's supposed ally, Turkey.

It's not surprising al-Assad's army needs even more help. Syria is in
a generational Awakening/Unraveling era, and the people have little
will to fight another war. The civil war in Syria should have fizzled
years ago, but it's continuing because Bashar al-Assad is a
psychopathic monster, and because he's received massive support from
Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

****
**** Turkey and Russia on a military collision path
****


There's nothing new here. Syria and Russia have always used the
"peace talks" as a cover to hide the continued genocide, and they're
doing it again in Idlib.

Turkey has played along, but there are two things that would change
that: attacks by Syrian or Russian warplanes on Turkish forces, and a
massive humanitarian disaster that would push hundreds of thousands of
people across the border into Turkey.

Bashar al-Assad has said repeatedly that he intends to take control of
Idlib province. There is absolutely no reason to doubt his
intentions, or that he intends to do it using the same methods he used
in Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, and previous de-escalation zones: targeting
markets, schools, hospitals and residences with barrel bombs laden
with metal, chlorine gas, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons
targeting innocent Sunni women and children, and using Sarin gas to
kill large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Arab political
opponents to be cockroaches to be exterminated.

The first warplane attack on Turkish forces occurred four days ago.
As al-Assad's Syrian forces continue to move north, they're going to
encounter more Turkish observation posts (military bases), and there
are going to be more convoys to attack. If such an attack occurs
again, Turkey may attempt to shoot down the warplane with a surface to
air missile.

As Syria and Russia continue their attacks on civilians in Idlib, and
push them farther north and east to the border with Syria, the
humanitarian situation with worsen. Hundreds of thousands of families
have already been forced to flee their homes and head for Turkey's
border. The United Nations has for months been warning of the
potential of one of the greatest humanitarian disasters in history.

The point is that all of these activities are pointing towards a
military clash between Turkey versus the Syrian regime and Russia.

Bashar al-Assad is a Shia/Alawite, and Syria's last generational
crisis war was a religious/ethnic civil war between the Shia Alawites
versus the Sunnis, including the ethnic Turkmens, climaxing in
February, 1982. So there's a great deal of animus between the
Alawites and the Turks.

Turkey and Russia may be having a marriage of convenience at the
present time, but they are no friends, as I described in "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
.

****
**** Syria: The crucible of a major Mideast war
****


As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war
between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and
the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis
versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other.

Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran.

It is 100% certain that Turkey and Russia will be at war. The only
remaining questions are the timing and scenario.

I've assumed that the most likely scenario for the start of a major
war in the Mideast would be Israelis versus Palestinians and other
Arabs. However, as Israel has developed alliances with Egypt, Jordan,
United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries, that scenario has
seemed less likely.

We now see a new scenario growing more likely, based on the following
observations:
  • The cartoon at the beginning of this article portrays an Arab
    view that Russia's president Vladimir Putin is the puppet and Bashar
    al-Assad is the puppetmaster. This sems counterintuitive until you
    realize that Putin desperately wants to keep the Tartus naval base,
    and the Hmeimim airbase, both in Syria, that al-Assad gave him in
    return for his help. Whatever the reason, it's clear that Putin is
    committed to full military support for al-Assad. If Putin doesn't do
    as he's told, al-Assad will throw Russia out.

  • Iran is also committed to full military support for al-Assad,
    because Iran wants to establish control of a swath of land all along
    the "Shia Crescent," from Iran, through Iraq, through Syria, and then
    on to Lebanon in one direction, and the Mediterranean Sea in another
    direction.

  • Iran is the puppetmaster controlling and funding Lebanon's
    Hezbollah terror group, and so Hezbollah is also committed to full
    military support for al-Assad.

  • Turkey has observation posts in Idlib, and al-Assad will attack
    them, claiming that they support "terrorists." Russia has ground
    troops in Idlib, and has warned Turkey that Russia would respond to
    any attack on its soldiers in Syria.

  • Saudi Arabia has supported some anti-Assad rebel groups in the
    past, and may join Turkey in Syria, fighting against al-Assad.

  • Turkey is a historic enemy of both al-Assad's Shia/Alawites and
    Orthodox Christian Russia, so they're headed for war anyway.

This suggests a possible scenario where a military clash begins in
Syria between Turkey and Russia, and spreads to a regional or larger
war. This scenario is not certain, of course, but in view of
centuries of wars between Turkey and Russia, it's certainly plausible.

****
**** Other major geopolitical issues
****


As the alignment of nations in a future Mideast war becomes clearer,
there are still a number of questions about how the nations of Europe
will line up.

Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Greece all have different and
sometimes conflicting interests in the Mideast, and these differences
could expand into clashes. Within Europe itself, there are sharp
differences between North and South, and between East and West.
Recall, for example, that one of the major reasons for Brexit is that
many Britons objected to immigrants -- not the Muslim immigrants from
Syria but the Christian immigrants from Poland and Hungary. And, of
course, the Balkan nations are a hotbed of anger and hostility.

Meanwhile, I continue to be absolutely astonished that, after hearing
politicians for decades say "Never again!", referring to the Nazi
Holocaust against the Jews, that there are now three Holocausts
currently in progress, in three different countries, all targeting
Sunni Muslims:
  • Syria's Shia/Alawite leader Bashar al-Assad, supported by
    Orthodox Christian Russia, is committing genocide and ethnic cleansing
    against Arab Sunni Muslims in Syria.

  • Buddhist Myanmar (Burma) seems to have successfully completed its
    genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim ethnic Rohingyas.

  • China is commiting genocide, ethnic cleansing, and enslavement of
    over a million Sunni Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in East Turkistan
    (Xinjiang Province).

Something new and astonishing occurs every day.

****
**** Sources
****


Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Khan Sheikhoun, Al-Hobeit,
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Astana process,
chlorine gas, Sarin gas, phosphorous, ammonia,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Iran, Hezbollah, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Shia Crescent, Iraq, Lebanon,
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Poland, Hungary

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John J. Xenakis
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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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Reply
(08-22-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan

(08-21-2019, 06:23 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   I'm more concerned about Taiwan.  This entire affair has to be
>   unsettling there.  Any thoughts of declaring independence and
>   walking away have to be off the table while DJT is in the White
>   House.  Just too risky.  Then again, not everything is
>   controllable, and Xi may decide that now is the perfect time to
>   crack down.  Who knows?  

The Chinese have always made it clear that they will annex Taiwan to
China at some time, by military force if necessary.  They know that
independence sentiment is growing, as survivors of the communist
revolution civil war die off and are replaced by younger generations
with greater allegiance to the West.  Those sentiments have been
growing even faster, as you suggest, because of the CCP's thuggish
activities in Hong Kong.  So a war of annexation on Taiwan is a
foregone conclusion, but the timing of such a war is independent of
any action in Hong Kong, since the latter is already part of China.

Triggering events are triggering events, and HK smells like one to me.  Xi needs to win one, and Taiwan is a big one, albeit not easy.  You've been looking for a crisis war, and this may be the entre.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
** 24-Aug-2019 World View: Losing the trade war?

Asia Guest Wrote:> Why do people keep saying that Trump is losing the trade war?
> China is falling apart now. I'm in Asia. I can see it. Panic
> everywhere among the common people. They can't afford meat or to
> pay the rent. If China is winning, I can't imagine what it would
> look like if China started losing.

It's very difficult getting this information from the media.
China is very opaque and lies about unfavorable economic information.
The mainstream media can't say that the trade war is succeeding,
since that would be supporting Trump.

I did write an article six weeks ago about how the trade war
is making companies doing business in China to move out, with
Vietnam gaining:

** 3-Jul-19 World View -- Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190703


Another way of looking at it is the per capita annual income in
different countries:

China $10K
Taiwan $25K
South Korea $30K
Japan $40K
Hong Kong $48K
USA $60K

The interesting thing about these figures is that the same Chinese
people live in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, but the per capita income
is far lower in China, reflecting the utter incompetence and stupidity
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Reply
(08-24-2019, 01:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Aug-2019 World View: Losing the trade war?

Asia Guest Wrote:>   Why do people keep saying that Trump is losing the trade war?
>   China is falling apart now. I'm in Asia. I can see it. Panic
>   everywhere among the common people. They can't afford meat or to
>   pay the rent. If China is winning, I can't imagine what it would
>   look like if China started losing.

Is this quote from your forum somewhere, and if so, any chance of a direct link?  This is of course what I would expect, but as you note, it's hard to get the information.

It's also to be noted that the Chinese government could use the resentment to rally sentiment against an outside enemy, namely the US in this case.  That would give it more freedom to take military action, though they'd still be limited by their military weakness.
Reply
(08-24-2019, 01:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Aug-2019 World View: Losing the trade war?

Asia Guest Wrote:> Why do people keep saying that Trump is losing the trade war?
> China is falling apart now. I'm in Asia. I can see it. Panic
> everywhere among the common people. They can't afford meat or to
> pay the rent. If China is winning, I can't imagine what it would
> look like if China started losing.

(08-24-2019, 03:14 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Is this quote from your forum somewhere, and if so, any chance of
> a direct link? This is of course what I would expect, but as you
> note, it's hard to get the information.

> It's also to be noted that the Chinese government could use the
> resentment to rally sentiment against an outside enemy, namely the
> US in this case. That would give it more freedom to take military
> action, though they'd still be limited by their military
> weakness.

The comment by Asia Guest was posted here on Friday:

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...500#p47421
Reply
** 25-Aug-2019 World View: The stupidity of the Chinese Communist Party

mr nobody Wrote:> really?! that is your rational? are you kidding me? first, you're
> comparing 1.4 bil country to basically what could be/is a city or
> region in china(dishonest). and secondly, that is possible only
> because of support of US military, direct investments from US and
> free access to US market. so basically without US, all of these
> countries would be pour 3rd world countries. has nothing to do
> with IQ or their governments.

> CCP is many things, but being dumb/stupid is not one of them. it
> does take some finesse to rule 1.4 bil people. they ARE
> ideologues and social engineers and everything is viewed in the
> terms of control and power. i think they recognize that to rule
> such masses, you have to control what's in peoples heads. and not
> to mention that in asian culture appeasement and accommodation is
> a sign of weakness. John, you always make fun of Winnie-the-Pooh
> censorship in china, but i raise you Pepe the Frog. this simple
> symbol has become a powerful tool for resistance and mocking and
> even freedom. so don't underestimate power of symbols... CCP is
> suffering from messiah complex, but they have ensured
> unprecedented level of stability and social cohesion.

Since I wrote a whole book on this subject, I'll only point briefly
to a couple of things.

You say that these other countries -- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan,
colonial Hong Kong -- all did well and are doing well because they had
"support of US military, direct investments from US and free access to
US market." Well, yes, that's true, but it's the utter stupidity
of the Chinese that they rejected all that help from the West.

Brief example: While China pursued the Boxer Rebellion, which essentially
declared war against the rest of the world, Japan signed the
Anglo-Japanese alliance, which enormously benefited Japan. That's
an example of how the Chinese were unbelievably stupid.

Another example is Mao's Great Leap Forward, which is probably
the stupidest policy in the history of the world, where Mao
managed to kill tens of thousands of Chinese through executions
and starvation, and destroyed the entire agricultural
infrastructure at the same time. During the same time period,
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong were building
up their economies, accessing the US market, and accepting
direct investments from the US. That's how smart the other
countries were, and how stupid the CCP was.

After Mao inflicted the Great Leap Forward disaster onto
China, he went on to inflict another enormous disaster,
Mao's Great Cultural Revolution, a policy so incredibly stupid
that it set China back probably 20 years.

Here's a very interesting point relevant to your statement about the
other countries had "support of US military, direct investments from
US and free access to US market." I wrote a lot about this in
my book because it's so interesting. Let me quote a few
paragraphs from my book:


Quote:> "Mao launched the Great Cultural Revolution. He shut
> down the nation’s schools, calling for a massive youth
> mobilization to take current party leaders to task for their
> embrace of bourgeois values and lack of revolutionary spirit. In
> the months that followed, the movement escalated quickly as the
> students formed paramilitary groups called the Red Guards and
> attacked and harassed members of China’s elderly and intellectual
> population. A personality cult quickly sprang up around Mao,
> similar to that which existed for Josef Stalin, with different
> factions of the movement claiming the true interpretation of
> Maoist thought.

> The Cultural Revolution was particularly harsh on religion. As
> we've described previously, the CCP cracked down on Chinese
> Christians in the 1950s, and Taiwan became a refuge for them, and
> a new base for missionaries. During the Cultural Revolution, any
> remaining foreign missionaries were imprisoned and tortured.
> Christian missionaries and charities were an enormous boon to
> Taiwan's economy, and their expulsion from China was just one more
> stupid mistake that explains why Taiwan, South Korea and Japan
> were economically and governmentally superior to China.

> The Red Guards, mostly younger students, soon brought the country
> to the verge of chaos; they fought pitched battles, carried out
> summary executions, drove thousands to suicide, and forced tens of
> thousands into labor camps, usually far from home. Intellectuals
> were sent to the countryside to learn the virtues of peasant life.
> Countless art and cultural treasures as well as books were
> destroyed, and universities were shut down. Insulting posters and
> other personal attacks, often motivated by blind revenge, were
> mounted against educators, experts in all fields, and other
> alleged proponents of "old thought" or "old culture," namely,
> anything pre-Maoist.

> With different factions of the Red Guard movement battling for
> dominance, many Chinese cities reached the brink of anarchy by
> September 1967, when Mao had Lin send army troops in to restore
> order. The army soon forced many urban members of the Red Guards
> into rural areas, where the movement declined. Amid the chaos, the
> Chinese economy plummeted, with industrial production for 1968
> dropping 12 percent below that of 1966.

> Mao used the army to resist any attempt to remove him from power,
> until he died in September 1976, after 1.5 million people had been
> killed, and millions of others suffered imprisonment, seizure of
> property, torture or general humiliation in the Cultural
> Revolution. Deng Xiaoping gained power in 1977, and led the
> government for the next 20 years."

Note in particular what happened to the religious organizations in
China WHO WERE THERE TO HELP THE CHINESE PEOPLE. Mao and the other
CCP idiots tortured and killed them, and forced them to flee to other
countries, especially Taiwan, where they were an enormous boon to
those economies. This is an excellent example of your point that
other countries received Western support while China didn't -- that's
because the unbelievably stupid idiots in the CCP tortured and killed
anyone who tried to help them, because all the CCP officials cared
about was keeping their own power and their own mistresses.

You should buy my book if you want more examples, but the bottom line
is the same -- that the people in the CCP have been incredibly evil,
stupid, incompetent people who are inflicting enormous pain on the
wonderful Chinese people, while people in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan
and colonial Hong Kong thrived because they had the support of the
West instead of rejecting it, and became active partners in the
international community.

And yes, the CCP's fear of Winnie the Pooh is an example of how stupid
and idiotic the CCP is. They fear Winnie the Pooh because he looks
like Xi Jinping, and they're afraid that the cartoon character could
be used to encourage an anti-CCP rebellion (on the mainland). Can you
imagine how ridiculous it would be if Donald Trump or any Western
leader were afraid of a cartoon character like that?
Reply


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