Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong generational split

I've been watching the Hong Kong coverage on the BBC, and
right at this moment it appears that the police are about
to make a move to push the pro-democracy protesters back.
There may be more violence in the next hour.

The BBC reporter made some interesting generational comments.
The pro-democracy protesters are almost all very young --
students, civil servants. They've all presumably grown up
since the 1997 handover of Hong Kong from Britain to China.

There's a separate smaller pro-Beijing demonstration going on,
on the other side of the harbor, and the BBC reporter says
that they're mostly elderly people.

[sbarrera]

That makes sense to me. We are seeing a similar political split between the generations in other countries, such as the U.S. The youth want a new way forward, the elders cling to the past. Make America the 1950s Again! 

[John J. Xenakis]

(08-03-2019, 09:04 AM)sbarrera Wrote: That makes sense to me. We are seeing a similar political split between the generations in other countries, such as the U.S. The youth want a new way forward, the elders cling to the past. Make America the 1950s Again! 

Saecular Pages
http://home.mindspring.com/~saecularpages/

Your saecular pages link is broken

[John J. Xenakis]

** 04-Aug-2019 Cathar Crusade

Trevor Wrote:> I've been doing a bit of reading and I would say that the Cathar
> Crusade, lasting from 1209 to 1229, cannot be anything other than
> a crisis war. It's by far the most brutal of the Crusades despite
> being all but forgotten now. Many scholars describe it as a
> pre-modern genocide.

> This really requires more reading but from my analysis, the scale
> of the atrocities and the long-term consequences indicate a crisis
> war.

I read a couple of sources on the subject, and it seems to follow a
familiar pattern. The Cathars became a populist religion that began
in the Awakening era and became popular and spread through the
Unraveling era. The Catholic Church first used peaceful means
("persuasion") to stop the spread, but those failed. Then there were
small local clashes. The sizes of the clashes grew.

It appears that the Regeneracy occurred in in 1224 when King Louis
VIII entered the war on the side of the Church, followed by King Louis
IX in 1226. The Cathars were crushed and forced to surrender by 1229,
leading to a "Treaty of Paris." This appears to be the crisis climax.

After that, the Inquisition took over, which would be the kind of
thing that happens in a First Turning Recovery Era. There were still
clashes, with the most notable occurring in 1244 and 1255. "The last
known Cathar burning occurred in 1321."

Here are the sources I read:

https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/ent...an_Crusade
https://www.ancient.eu/Albigensian_Crusade/
http://www.cathar.info/cathar_wars.htm

The analysis that I wrote above makes sense and appears to be correct,
and as you say, it does seem to be a "pre-modern genocide," but
there's a lot missing from it. In particular, what's needed is to
identify the preceding generational crisis war, and why it led to the
rise and spread of the Cathars during the Awakening and Unraveling
eras.

In particular, who are the Cathars? What's their history? Are they
an ethnic group? A geographic group? Did they speak a different
language? Have a different skin color or appearance? What happened
to them in the preceding crisis war? What do they have in common that
caused them to form an identity group based on the Cathar heresy?

A complete analysis would require going back a couple of crisis wars,
and show what led up to the Cathar Crusade.

Next, what happened to the Cathars after that? Maybe their heresy
religion disappeared, but the people didn't disappear. What role did
they play in the crisis war that followed the Cathar Crusade?

This is the difference between ordinary historical accounts versus
generational analyses. An ordinary historical account that any
historian might write just says something happened on a certain date
or in a certain decade, and lists names, dates and places. A
generational analysis has to include the flow of generations and
identity groups through multiple generational eras over two or three
centuries, to show how one era leads to the next.

A generational analysis is clearly a lot more complicated than a
simple historical account that a historian typically writes. If you
want to carry this further, I suggest just reading 20 or 30 more
relevant sources. My experience is that once you've read enough stuff
from different political points of view, the generational events and
eras become very clear, and everything falls into place.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 04-Aug-2019 World View: China's yuan (renminbi) currency breaks 7 to the dollar

For those who care about such things, in the last hour, China has just
fixed its yuan (renminbi) currency exchange rate to 7.0335 to the
dollar, as reported on Bloomberg TV.

The exchange rate has been below 7 for years, and China has remained
committed to keep it below 7. The fact that the exchange rate
has increased above 7 means that the yuan currency has been
falling in value (since you pay more yuan when you use the
currency to purchase dollars).

The weakening of China's currency has been a subject of debate in
Washington recently because of the US-China trade war. Donald Trump
has place tariffs on Chinese products. This means that when US
companies purchase these products, they have to pay a tax that goes
into the US treasury, and the company passes those taxes on to
consumers in the form of price increases.

However, the Trump administration claims that China is paying for the
tariffs, and points to the fact that prices have not been increasing
since the tariffs were implemented.

The way this works, according to the Trump administration, is that
China has been absorbing the cost of the tariffs in two ways -- by
lowering their prices for products, and by weakening the yuan currency
so that you need fewer dollars to pay for a Chinese product priced in
yuan.

This evening, China weakened the yuan currency significantly, and this
supports the position of the Trump administration.

---- Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ium-europe
(Bloomberg, August 4, 2019, 9:22 PM EDT)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Aug-2019 World View: News summary

Things are supposed to slow down in August, but there's a lot going
on.

*** Hong Kong

Protesters are using new "flash protest" techniques. Instead of
holding a protest in one place, where they can be driven away by the
police, they block one intersection or train station, and then move on
to the next one when the police come.

This has been going on for nine weeks. The CCP is not going to
tolerate this much longer.

I saw the city governor Carrie Lam give a press conference, almost in
tears, saying "this is very dangerous for Hong Kong, the city we love,
the city we built."

*** Kashmir, India

India send tens of thousands of troops into the Indian-controlled
portion of Kashmir last week, for no apparent reason.

Now we know the reason. They're revoking Article 370 of the
constitution, which gives autonomy to the mostly Muslim population of
Kashmir. Article 370 was at the heart about why Kashmir joined India
in 1947, so revoking it is a very big deal. The Muslims in Kashmir
are furious, and the government of Pakistan is also furious.

It strikes me how similar this situation is to Hong Kong. Kashmir and
Hong Kong are semi-autonomous regions of India and China,
respectively, and the central governments are trying to limit that
autonomy.


*** Ebola, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Ebola is spreading through Goma, the DR Congo city of over two million
people on the border with Uganda. Officials are becoming increasingly
pessimistic that the outbreak can be contained any time soon. They're
talking about 2-3 years.

It's interesting -- the 2014 outbreak caused international panic.
This outbreak is barely being covered outside of the region. This
outbreak may turn out to be even more dangerous to the world than the
2014 outbreak.

*** Idlib, Syria

Russia has always used a UN Security Council veto to prevent a UN
investigation of human rights and war crime violations by Russia and
Syria in Syria's Idlib province.

Westerners have used a trick to get around the Russian veto.

The UN had supplied the coordinates of hospitals and schools in Idlib
to Russia with the understanding that the Syrians and Russians would
not bomb the buildings at those coordinates. Not surprisingly, the
sleazebags in Damascus and Moscow used that list in order to target
hospitals and schools purposely.

So this is considered such an egregious crime against the UN, that the
UN will do an investigation of that issue -- and at the same time will
undoubtedly reach broader conclusions about war crimes. The Russian
sleazebags are furious.

*** US-China trade talks

The latest round of US-China trade negotiations have collapsed
completely. The Chinese refused to commit to anything, and are now
demanding that they won't even negotiate any more unless we first
remove all the sanctions, allow Huawei free entry into the US, and
release the Huawei CEO being held in Canada.

Trump announced a new set of sanctions to be implemented on September
1.

*** Sharp selloff in stocks, fall in bond yields

The collapse of the US-China trade talks and Trump's announcement of
new sanctions have led to a sharp selloff on Monday on Wall Street.
At the same time, yields (interest rates) on Treasury bonds have been
falling sharply, which means that investors are selling stocks and
buying bonds.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Aug-2019 The Fourth Turning Crisis Crisis

Tom Mazanec Wrote:> The Burning Platform on The Fourth Turning (Part two):
> https://www.theburningplatform.com/2019/...-part-two/

This article is based on the 1990s fourth turning theory (TFT theory),
which Neil Howe and David Kaiser have abandoned. Starting in the Bush
administration, Howe had to change the 1990s theory so that there
wouldn't have to be a war in the Fourth Turning, since predicting a
war would support the neo-cons in the Bush administration, and Howe
and Kaiser are left-wing Democrats.

Then during the Obama administration, Kaiser developed a weird,
complex theory that Obama would bring about social changes that would
cause a spiritual reawakening, and bring about "the death of the old
political, economic and social order." So political activist Kaiser
was hoping that Obama's social changes would bring about the Fourth
Turning crisis without a war. That prediction, of course, was a
complete failure.

So now, in the Trump administration, the TFT acolytes are in a state
of crisis (you might call it the "Fourth Turning Crisis Crisis"),
because even they can see that the Fourth Turning crisis will be a
world war, and Trump may be the one who leads the US through that
crisis, which would elevate Trump to the list of America's Greatest
Leaders, including Washington, Lincoln, and Roosevelt. The TFT
acolytes can't stand that possibility, since they really hate Trump,
so they've gone into a state of total delusion, along with everyone
else on the left.

So the article that you reference is a good article, and is entirely
reasonable in GD theory, but ironically, the article is a reversion to
the old, now rejected TFT theory. It's a shame that Howe had to
abandon his own theory, since ideology is more important.

The article is very vague about what might happen. It's like a
weather forecaster predicting rain next month, with no more details.
Generational Dynamics has provided a great deal of detail about how
the Fourth Turning will begin, and how it will turn out, something the
TFT theory is completely clueless about, since it has nothing to say
about China, Japan or the Mideast, or any country other than England
and America.

Howe and Kaiser are also boxed in in another way. TFT theory applies
only to England and America. They would like to apply 1990s TFT
theory to other countries, but they can't do that because that would
require adopting the Principle of Localization that I developed in
Generational Dynamics. Kaiser has adopted the Principle of Location
in some of his writings, but of course he simply plagiarizes the
concept from me without giving me credit. Howe and Kaiser really
despise me because of the success of GD theory and the failure of TFT
theory, so now they and the TFT acolytes have to bend themselves into
pretzels to avoid writing anything that appears to support Trump or
that appears to agree with Generational Dynamics. Must be tough.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Aug-2019 World View: Is China panicking?

Guest Wrote:> Just as Chinese goods are getting around tariffs by
> goods-laundering via 3rd party nations, they are getting our
> ag-goods via proxy. You can change the market numbers all you
> want, but a billion people still have to eat.

> BTW, now might be a good time to start retiring some of that debt
> - at the new lower price. Thanks, China

SubtoDT Wrote:> Yes, the food supply globally is not looking good.
> From the Daily Telegraph( I have a paid subscription):

Quote:>> “The worry is that a break beyond 7 could send the Chinese
>> currency into a vicious circle in which selling leads to more
>> selling,” said Ke Baili from Caixin.

>> Kyle Bass, a long-time China bear at Hayman Capital, said a “mass
>> exodus” of capital is already underway as political protest in
>> Hong Kong reaches crisis point and China’s debt-driven growth
>> model reaches the limits. “The collapse has just begun,” he
>> tweeted.

>> Most analysts say the move by the PBOC is a deliberate choice, but
>> that is hardly more reassuring for investors. It means that the
>> Chinese Communist Party is willing to risk a full-blown conflict
>> with Washington on every economic front. Beijing has reportedly
>> ordered state bodies to halt purchases of farm products from the
>> US at the same time.

> China needs huge amounts of food, and with half their pigs dead
> from disease this summer, they need to get protein from
> somewhere. Also, food prices are soaring higher due to shortages
> and plunging currency f/x. It's as if China wants their citizens
> to riot.

> I can't believe how quickly things have escalated between the US
> and the UK and South Korea and Japan in the last two weeks. All we
> need now is for the North Koreans to do something stupid.

Guest Wrote:> Talking to a good friend in Asia a few hours ago, he told me he
> has just cancelled all clothing orders in China and diverted them
> to Sri Lanka. 90% of his products are made in Asia for the US
> markets.

> He told me the Chinese manufacturers are going crazy and tens of
> thousands will be layed off within the next few weeks. Riding the
> Chinese wave for the last twenty years, many Chinese are mortgaged
> to the hilt as they have bought property for pension purposes.

> China has huge debt payments due in USD so that spells
> trouble. They must reckon that the one party state is better
> insulated from an angry populace whereas they see Trump as more
> exposed and up for re-election. It's a mistake in judgement that
> will backfire.

I've had a growing feeling from some time that the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) is approaching a state of total panic. And I'm using the
word "panic" in the Generational Dynamics sense of a financial panic,
or a "let's bomb Pearl Harbor" type of panic.

This is just a "feeling," but the events of the last week have made me
"feel" that this panic is reaching a fever pitch.

The nature of this panic comes from the fact that the CCP is
suddenly facing several existential crises that it has no
idea how to handle:

• The US-China trade dispute is having effects well beyond
  increased costs, especially because the Huawei restrictions are
  affecting the entire region. The result could be a chain of
  bankruptcies and social unrest.
  
  
• The Huawei restrictions are forcing the Chinese military
  off their game plan of intalling 5G around the world and controlling
  the entire internet.
  
  
• The Hong Kong riots have gone on for nine weeks, and show
  no signs of stopping. The CCP has issued warning after warning,
  and they won't tolerate the riots much longer, but they're restrained
  because a violent intervention would cause enormous blowback,
  financially and geopolitically.

Each of these crises is existential in the sense that a bad outcome
would threaten the collapse of the CCP (something like the Soviet
communist party collapse in 1991, which haunts CCP officials every
day).

These are all ongoing crises. What's changed in the past few days,
and this is why I'm getting this "feeling" of panic, was the
devaluation of the yuan currency, which is a very big deal, and then
the quick revaluation, along with the usual accusations directed at
the US. The "feeling" I'm getting is one of desperation, that the CCP
doesn't know what to do next.

Add to that the fact that North Korea keeps launching short-range
missiles (and I don't buy the claim that this being done under orders
from Xi Jinping). Also there was a sharp global stock market
semi-crash.

All of this is just a "feeling" of panic. It might all disappear
tomorrow. But the problems listed above will not go away, and the CCP
has no solution for any of them.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Aug-2019 World View: China-Cambodia and the South China Sea

• China is building a massive deep-water seaport project in
  Cambodia's Koh Kong province along the Gulf of Thailand

Peter E Wrote:> A new Chinese naval base in Cambodia has also crossed a red line
> in the Asia Pacific region. US medium range missiles will be going
> into South-east Asia and maybe Australia.

> The obvious targets (to begin with) are Hong Kong and Taiwan. It
> will be easy for the PLA to send in the tanks into Causeway,
> Central and Kowloon but will spell the end of HK as the gateway
> for western capital into China.

> Taiwan will be a trickier proposition but the PLA's strategy is
> plain to see - block off the South China Sea completely to
> everyone else and block off entry points to the northern
> Pacific. The pieces in the picture are falling into place. The
> South China Sea is populated with and ringed by opposing naval and
> missile bases and leading to an inevitable confrontation. The
> question is not if but when.

> The only way to stop Chinese militarisation and aggression is for
> the US and the West and their allies to cease doing any business,
> trade, investment etc with fascist China. Today, Uighur
> concentration camps and territorial invasions in Asia - tomorrow,
> in the rest of the world. Boycott 'Made In China'. Stop appeasing
> fascist China.

I've come to the view in the last year that the "China dream"
of world hegemony is complete fantasy, and is not something
that even the Chinese military wants, since China is unable
to govern itself, let alone govern the world.

The conclusion that I reached is that China is pursuing a war of
revenge against Japan and a war of annexation against Taiwan. That's
why the book that I wrote ended up with the title "Was Between China
and Japan."

So my view is increasingly that China wasting a lot of money
and resources with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and
things like a naval base in Djibouti, since these will not
support their primary objectives of Japan and Taiwan.

At any rate, if China is building a naval base in Cambodia, then as
you say it will probably be used to prevent defense of Hong Kong,
Taiwan and Japan through the South China Sea.

---- Sources:

-- Cambodia is the US-China rivalry’s latest front, as talk of base
access alarms Washington
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/art...ess-alarms
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 5-Aug-2019)

-- China's Cambodian invasion
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/201...Un2yXspB_B
(Japan Times, 5-Aug-2019)

-- Why a New China Naval Outpost in Cambodia Would Matter
https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/why-a-ne...ld-matter/
(Diplomat, 23-Jul-2019)

-- Chinese construction boom in Cambodian town raises fears of secret
military pact
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-26/c...s/11345410
(Australia Broadcasting, 26-Jul-2019)


---- Related:


** 16-Dec-18 World View -- Cambodia denies major China-funded seaport project is a military base
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181216



** 17-Jan-19 World View -- Cambodia's Hun Sen threatens to kill opposition politicians if EU ends preferences
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190117

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Aug-2019 World View: Bond yields falling

There are very long faces on CNBC this morning, at 8:40 am ET, because
10 year Treasury yields fell from 1.72% to 1.63% in the last two
hours.

If bond yields are falling rapidly, it means that a lot of investors
are suddenly buying bonds (as a "safe haven") and selling stocks, and
this matches a 300 point fall in DJIA futures when the market opens at
9:30 am ET.

Steve Liesman on CNBC just rattled off a list of "shocking" things
from the last 12 hours:

• India announces a larger than expected 35 basis point
  cut. (This means that the Royal Bank of India has reduced
  interest rates, making then 0.35% lower.)
  
  
• New Zealand, larger than expected 50 basis point cut. (0.5%
  reduction in interest rates)
  
  
• Thailand, completely unexpected cut of 25 basis points.
  
  
• Horrific Germany production data.

German bond yields just fell 4 basis points, with 10-year bund yields
at a record low of -0.58%. (That means that when you buy a German
bond, you don't get all your money back.)


https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/another...s-20190807

All of these figures are signs of a deflationary spiral and a currency
war. (A country can boost its exports by devaluing the currency,
since that makes the country's export prices lower, compared to other
currencies. When all countries do the same thing, it's called "a race
to the bottom.")

Yesterday, I wrote about a "feeling" of panic that I've been
having. This morning's events extend that "feeling" of panic
for another day.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Aug-2019 World View: Reunification of Ireland with Northern Ireland

From EuroIntel:

Could a no-deal Brexit fuel unification for Ireland?

With high chances of a no-deal Brexit, the debate about a border poll
on uniting Northern Ireland and the Republic is re-emerging. While at
this point such a scenario is still hypothetical even if the UK were
to crash out of the EU without a deal in October, no-deal Brexit may
well accelerate the the process and increase the likelihood of such a
poll. A debate about it is always tricky as it easily engages the
hearts more than the minds of unionists loyal to the UK, and of Irish
nationalists who may think of unification as creating just a bigger
Ireland.

Leo Varadkar struck the right tone in Northern Ireland by saying that
a united Ireland would be a different state with a different
constitution. The process would not be one of annexation or
territorial addition. He made no reference to German unification, or
to former prime minister Enda Kenny. During his time in office Kenny
received reassurance from the EU that after unification it would
automatically re-admit Northern Ireland without the Republic having to
reapply for EU membership. Ireland would gain more territory, that was
it. One can see why this did not go down well with the unionists.

Varadkar firmly put his feet on different ground. A new constitution,
and a different if not a new state, would be the result of
unification. The constitution of a united Ireland would have to sort
out many differences. For once the official language in Ireland is
Gaelic, while it is English in Northern Ireland. The head of state is
the president in the Republic and the Queen for Northern
Ireland. There are different anthems, currencies, measurements, flags
and capitals. All emotional issues for many.

But a new constitution is not so straightforward either, writes Newton
Emerson. According to the Belfast agreement, two separate border polls
would have to be held on the issue of unification. In the Republic a
campaign for a new constitution could well alienate those who are fond
of the existing one. In Northern Ireland, the argument for unification
may have better chances to win as British politics is currently highly
unpredictable, divisive, and against the basic interests of most in
the North.

Under a no-deal Brexit, unification suddenly becomes a credible
goal. But to win this poll, the government has to stay clear of
trouble with an alternative that neither sides will refuse.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Aug-2019 World View: Resolving Ireland differences

utahbob Wrote:> John, In Northern Ireland, it would not be smooth sailing for the
> Republic of Ireland to expand and absorb the north. I have family
> in the North who are Nationalist and some Republicans. It goes
> back generations and that is part of the reason I am in
> America. Many who favor a united Ireland are looking at their
> wallets very carefully and into the future now. The romantic view
> of historical destiny for a united 32 counties is smacking up
> against reality. Ireland is notionally Irish in reality. Not many
> speak Irish anymore. Polish is the second common language in
> Ireland. It is not a requirement for employment in the government
> now. Irish culture is going to the wayside and with massive
> immigration, the new comers are not embracing it. It may be united
> due to the sentiment of sticking it in the British eye, right past
> wrongs but at a high cost. How long will those cost be borne is
> anybody’s guess. I doubt it will not happen now, since the cost to
> placate the Unionist (nothing will win over the loyalists) will be
> too high. Only a long term demographic shift over two or three
> generations (births/babies) to the nationalist/republican side
> could possibly make this happen. The Good Friday agreement was a
> good fudge for the situation of the day, but that day is
> gone.

I guess the most shocking thing about what you've written is that
Polish is spoken more than Gaelic. Is that really true?

It's been my opinion for over a year that the Brexit debate will end
with a "no-deal Brexit." The reason is that a no-deal Brexit is the
default option, and therefore it's the only option that doesn't
require any group to negotiate and compromise with another group, and
Gen-Xers are unable to negotiate and compromise.

A lot of people think we're still in the 1990s, when the World War II
survivors were running things. Those people were able to negotiate
and compromise. But Gen-Xers are completely lacking in those skills,
and replace them with total contempt and hatred for anyone who doesn't
agree with them.

So, Boris Johnson is in charge in Britain, and he favors the default
option, which is no-deal Brexit on October 31. This is putting other
politicians (the "remainers") into a panic, because once Brexit
occurs, it's irrevocable.

It's sorta funny that after the referendum passed in 2016, I wrote
repeatedly that there was no solution to the Irish border problem --
not that no politician was clever enough to find a solution, but that
no solution exists, given the imposed restraints (no tariffs between
Ireland and Northern Ireland, and no tariffs between Northern Ireland
and England, and Britain not in the EU).

So now it's the Irish border problem that's forcing the no-deal
Brexit. But of course that doesn't solve the Irish border problem
either. There will still be tariffs and border posts separating
Ireland and Northern Ireland.

So trying to reunify Ireland would be a move of desperation. If it
could be accomplished, then Northern Ireland and Ireland would both be
in the EU (as they are today), so there would be no tariffs or border
posts within Ireland.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the split in Ireland
is a manifestation of the fault line between the indigenous Gaelic
population vs the Scottish and English invaders. There have been
centuries of generational crisis wars between these two populations,
and the Gaelics have accused the English of genocide and ethnic
cleansing.

So there's a great deal of hatred and animosity between these groups,
as evidenced by the continuing violent clashes in "The Troubles,"
which were only resolved by the Good Friday agreement in 1998.

So you say that your family is on both sides -- the Nationalists
(descendants of the invaders) and the Republicans (the indigenous
Gaelics). So it must be a very interesting story about why you fled
to America.

So as you say, "it would not be smooth sailing for the Republic of
Ireland to expand and absorb the north." However, to be fair, that's
what Leo Varadkar is specifically rejecting. He's proposing a whole
new Ireland, with a new constitution, which resolves such differences
as languages, anthems, currencies, measurements, flags and capitals.

That's a tall order, and it shouldn't take more than a century to
reach agreement on all those issues.

Related Articles:

** 2-Jan-19 World View -- Brexit chaos entangles issue of Iranian migrants crossing English Channel
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190102


** 19-Oct-18 World View -- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181019


** 02-Aug-18 World View -- Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180802


** 26-Jun-16 World View -- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e160626

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status
  
• Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India
  
• Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370
  

****
**** Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status
****


Street protests in Srinigar, the capital city of the Indian-government portion of Kashmir, after Friday prayers (AP)

Kashmir is a bitterly disputed region on the border between India and
Pakistan. It's one of the four or five extremely volatile regions in
the world where a local war could quickly spread into a larger
regional war or even a world war. So a large surge in tensions
between India and Pakistan over Kashmir in the last week is capturing
worldwide attention.

Two weeks ago, India sent tens or hundreds of thousands of troops into
the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir with no explanation.

It turned out that India deployed the vast army of troops to Kashmir
in anticipation of violence that was likely to occur after last week's
revocation of Article 370 of India's constitution, which makes Kashmir
a semi-autonomous state of India.

India did much more than send in troops. For the last few days,
Kashmir has been locked down and isolated. The streets are deserted
all day long, because of a strict curfew that requires everyone to
stay at home. All phone and internet lines have been shut down, in
order to prevent Kashmiris from communicating and planning a riot.

Indian officials are concerned about a large backlash, once the curfew
is lifted, and the events that occurred on Friday illustrate those
concerns. The curfew was temporarily lifted for Friday prayers.
Indian police used tear gas, pellets and live fire to fight back at
least 10,000 anti-Indian protesters in Srinagar, Kashmir's capital
city.

Indian officials are concerned about what will happen on Monday, when
there is a major Muslim festival of Eid Ul Azha. Eid Ul Azha
("Festival of the Sacrifice") is one of the holiest days on the Muslim
calendar, and it commemorates the willingness of Abraham to sacrifice
his son in obedience to Allah's command.

****
**** Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India
****

The region's last generational crisis war was the massive 1947
Partition War between Muslims and Hindus that followed the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.

An outcome of that war was that Kashmir was split into two, government
respectively by Pakistan and India. Indian-governed Kashmir is
populated mostly by Muslims. As a condition for giving control to
India, Article 370 was added to India's constitution, giving Kashmir
substantial autonomy over its own affairs. Importantly, another
article — 35a — also barred people outside the state from buying
property there to prevent India’s majority-Hindu population from
moving into Jammu and Kashmir and displacing the Muslims who live
there.

A possibly unintended consequence of these laws was that girls from
Kashmir could not marry men from outside Kashmir. The reason was that
residents of Jammu and Kashmir had exclusive rights to property and
state government jobs, among other privileges, and women marrying
non-residents stood to lose those benefits.

With the revocation of those laws, Kashmir is just another state
within India, equivalent to all the other states. Girls can now
freely marry outside of Kashmir, but the larger picture is Kashmir's
affairs are now decided in New Delhi rather than in Srinigar.

India's prime minister Narendra Modi has justified the revocation of
Article 370 by saying that it's harmed the people of Kashmir in the
last 70 years, and and that all it has done is to bring nepotism,
separatism, and terrorism. He said that the "historic" decision would
benefit all the people of Kashmir, and would benefit all of India.

It's not surprising that Modi revoked Article 370, since he has wanted
to do so for years, but many analysts are wondering about the timing -
why now?

According to some analysts, it's because of the Donald Trump
administration. The US is negotiating to remove all of its troops
from Afghanistan, and Modi may fear that this will fre up a new wave
of terrorists to flood into Kashmir, and saw a need to act
preemptively. Modi also may have been concerned by Trump's July
meeting with Inran Khan, at which Trump offered to mediate the Kashmir
problem for Pakistan and India.

****
**** Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370
****


Some 8,000 supporters of the Pakistani political party Jammat-e-Islami demonstrated in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital city (Sky News)

Pakistani officials were caught by surprise by the revocation of
Article 370, and have been expressing fury. Officials in Pakistan
particularly point to the removal of restrictions on ownership of land
and property by outsiders, which were embedded in Article 370.
Removing these restrictions might lead to an influx of Hindu
immigration into Kashmir, diluting the Muslim population.

There were large anti-India protests in Pakistan's capital city
Islamabad, with 8,000 demonstrators in the streets. One young man was
quoted: "Yes, we are angry here. We don't want to fight. The last
option is to fight ... but if we have to, we will get Kashmir by the
sword, by ammunition and guns." Some Pakistani officials were calling
for military action against India.

Pakistan's close ally China said that it will "continue to support
Pakistan in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests."

Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan defused some of the anger by
saying that instead of military action, they will use diplomatic
action. Pakistan has downgraded diplomatic ties with India and
suspended trade, and will bring the issue to the UN Security Council.

Sources:

• Modi's vision of a Hindu India advanced by occupied Kashmir changes (AP, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• India revokes occupied Kashmir's special autonomy through rushed presidential decree (Dawn, Pakistan, 5-Aug-2019)
  
• Indian troops enforce Kashmir lockdown during Friday prayers (Dawn/AFP, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• China to 'uphold justice for Pakistan' on Kashmir issue (AP, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• Kashmir under curfew: Pre-dawn food run then rush home (AP, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• Thousands protest in occupied Kashmir over new status despite clampdown (Reuters, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• Pakistan suspends trade ties with India. Who gains, who loses from Imran Khan's move (India Today, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• What made Pakistan open its airspace for India (India Today, 16-Jul-2019)
  
• India / How Kashmir got Article 370: History retold (India Today, 8-Aug-2019)
  
• Narendra Modi tells India that “a new era has begun” after Kashmir power grab (Vox, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• James Carafano: India-Pakistan Kashmir dispute – Here's why things could get very messy, very fast (Fox News, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• Kashmir: Fury and frustration in Islamabad as thousands turn out to protest (Sky News, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• Kashmir dispute: Residents attend Friday prayers amid lockdown (BBC, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• India revokes Kashmir's special status: All the latest updates (Al-Jazeera, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• Modi’s revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy (Economist, 10-Aug-2019)
  
• You can read this article. An internet blackout means no-one in Indian-controlled Kashmir can (CNN, 9-Aug-2019)
  
• India revoked Kashmir’s special status. Here’s what you need to know about the contested province. (Washington Post, 7-Aug-2019)
  
• India / Pakistan / Kashmir: What to Know About the Disputed Region (Council On Foreign Relations, 8-Aug-2019)

Related Articles:

• Kashmir locked down after Indian security forces kill seven civilians (18-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Number of Kashmir militants surges as India's 'Operation All-Out' fails (28-Sep-2018)
  
  
• India's Kashmir locked down after 3 civilians killed by police (09-Jul-2018)
  
  
• India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war (24-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  
  
• India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue (21-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan,
Article 370, Srinagar, Eid Ul Azha, Festival of the Sacrifice,
Donald Trump, Imran Khan, Afghanistan

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Aug-2019 World View: Generational memory and the future of Ireland

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> Gaeilge (the Irish language) hasn't been a majority language on
> the island of Ireland for several hundred years,.. but English is
> the most spoken (99%), and

> Gaeilge 36% (although only about 10% are fluent)
> Ulster Scots 0.9% (a variety of "Older" English from 17th century "lowland" Scotland)
> Shelta (Romani "Traveler" speak) 30,000
> Polish (119,526 speakers)
> German (27,342)
> French (56,430)
> Japanese (1,309)
> Mandarin (15,166)



> My Gaeilge sucks, of course. I used to know quite a few low level
> conversational phrases, as well as
> most of the Catholic Mass (in Gaeilge, "An tAifreann"),
> and bits and pieces of little things that I've forgotten
> entirely. I wonder if "Ulysses" by Joyce is available in the old
> language? Right,.. something else to look up.

For what it's worth, here's what the CIA World Factbook says:

Quote:> English (official, the language generally used), Irish (Gaelic or
> Gaeilge) (official, spoken by approximately 39.8% of the
> population as of 2016; mainly spoken in areas along Ireland's
> western coast known as gaeltachtai, which are officially
> recognized regions where Irish is the predominant language)

> https://www.cia.gov/library/publications...os/ei.html

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> The Loyalists in The North will never relinquish their UK
> affiliation, so the only possibility for real "reunification" (as
> that's NOT the right word, but we'll leave that off for now) is
> for the Loyalists to emigrate "back" to the UK (likely only under
> some variety of duress).

Why isn't reunification the right word? Wasn't Ireland unified under
English rule prior to 1922?

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> There WILL be border "controls" between the Republic and Northern
> Ireland, and there WILL therefore be violence at those
> points.

That seems pretty certain, doesn't it.

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> But the "New Troubles" won't likely last very long, as (the
> common) people have gotten used to "peace" and will stomp down the
> "violent ones" in short order, probably driving them out of the
> country to hang out with the Basque Militants somewhere in
> Algeria,.. or some such ludicrous situation.

> A "fully Irish" Ireland will have to wait
> for at least 2 generations (44ish years) or more likely 4 or 5
> more generations (88 to 110 years), until the "cultural DNA" has
> attenuated sufficiently.

Now here we have a problem, because generations don't work that
way. In fact, generations work in the opposite way.

If two ordinary people have a bitter feud in their 20s, then forty
years later, when they're in the 60s, the memories of the feud would
have faded, and the two people will have reconciled. But it works the
opposite way with generations.

If two groups have a generational crisis war during the XX20s, then
forty years later, in the XX60s, the memory of the war may have faded
in the minds of the survivors, but for the generations growing up
after the war, the feud does not fade, but is renewed.

I believe that a significant part of the mechanism is as follows: The
survivors of the war are completely traumatized, and spend the rest of
their lives trying to make sure it never happens again. However, as
their children are growing up, there are inevitably stories about the
war, particularly bitter stories about the atrocities committed during
the war. And, not surprisingly, the children in each group never hear
about the atrocities committed by their parents, but only about the
atrocities committed by the parents of the children on the other side.
After the war, during the Recovery and Awakening eras, one side will
inevitably be economically better off than the other, and that adds to
the renewal of the "feud." In the following decades, the traumatized
survivors try to prevent anything serious from happening, but they're
only marginally successful, and once they're gone, a new full-scale
war breaks out.

With regard to children hearing only about atrocities committed by the
other side, not by the atrocities committed by their own side: One
thing I've noticed repeatedly is that people tell me that their
grandparents fought in WW II but they refuse to talk about it. I
believe that it's because they're ashamed of their own actions,
including such things as rape or torture, which are pretty common on
all sides in a generational crisis war. After all, if you're a
soldier and you see a lone girl, and you know that her brother or
father or uncle has just killed all your friends, why shouldn't you
rape her? What have you got to lose? (Ironically, her brother
killing all your friends is just an ordinary act of war, but you
raping her is a war crime. Go figure.) But of course those become
acts of shame when the war ends, but subjects of discussion when they
were committed by the other side.

[Warren Dew]

(08-10-2019, 12:27 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: FishbellykanakaDude>   The Loyalists in The North will never relinquish their UK
>   affiliation, so the only possibility for real "reunification" (as
>   that's NOT the right word, but we'll leave that off for now) is
>   for the Loyalists to emigrate "back" to the UK (likely only under
>   some variety of duress).

Why isn't reunification the right word?  Wasn't Ireland unified under
English rule prior to 1922?

In that case, "reunification" would mean all of Ireland leaving the EU and rejoining the UK.  That's not what people are talking about.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong protests - the tenth weekend

This is the tenth consecutive weekend of anti-Beijing demonstrations
in Hong Kong.

Among the analysts I've seen on tv, there are two opposing views about
how all this is all going to end.

One view is that an invasion by the mainland army is imminent.

The other view is that the protests will fizzle out a month from now
when the schools open and the protesters go back to class, and
then everything will go back to normal.

The two views aren't necessarily in conflict, as Beijing could wait to
see if the protests fizzle out, and then send in the army if they
don't.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong protesters shut down the airport

• Hong Kong airport on Monday

The Hong Kong protests have been going on for ten weeks, and have been
getting smaller and more violent.

A few weeks ago, there were as many as two million people in the Hong
Kong street protests, out of a Hong Kong population of about 7
million. However, the protests have been getting smaller, and only
thousands or tens of thousands of protesters participated over the
weekend.

The diminishing size of the protests has appaently motivated the
activists to encourage more violence. Over the weekend, demonstrators
put up barricades to block intersections and wore face masks for
protection from police tear gas. Protesters surrounded the police
station, and threw bricks at police.

On Monday, Hong Kong airport was forced to cancel all flights out of
the airport, as 5,000 anti-government protesters blocked the departure
area.

There have been reports that China's military (PLA) has been massing
troops on the mainland in Shenzhen just outside Hong Kong. Beijing
claims that just normal exercises.

• Dozens of army trucks line a street next to the entrance of
  the Shenzhen Bay Sports Centre in Shenzhen on Monday (SCMP)

Forcing the airport to close is a very serious act on the part of
anti-government activists. It seems that as the size of the protests
has dwindled, the activists have been doing more and more to provoke a
military confrontation for their own self-interest.

It's now Tuesday morning in Hong Kong, and the number of protesters in
the airport has dwindled from thousands to hundreds. The airport is
trying to restore operations.

The Civil Human Rights Front, a group that has organized some of the
largest rallies, announced that it would hold another “mass march” on
Sunday, Aug. 18.

---- Sources:

-- Hong Kong airport cancels all flights for the remainder of the day
due to protests
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/hong-kon...tests.html
(CNBC, 12-Aug-2019)

-- Hong Kong / Airport Looks to Reopen Early Tuesday Morning: Hong
Kong Update
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ong-update
(Bloomberg, 12-Aug-2019)

-- Chinese armed police truck convoy rolls into city near Hong Kong
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...-hong-kong
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 12-Aug-2019)

[Warren Dew]

Closing the airport is really stupid on the part of the protesters. If you wanted to scare the average resident into embracing full integration into the mainland, cutting off contact with the outside world would be the way to do it. Hopefully it can get reopened on Tuesday.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Aug-2019 World View: US and Turkey to create a 'bufferf zone' in northeast Syria

• Map of Syria, showing Turkey's proposed buffer zone in
  northeast Syria (Telegraph)

A US delegation arrived in Turkey on Monday to discuss creation of a
"Joing Command Center" in Turkey to oversee the creation of a
"buffer zone" in northeastern Syria. The meeting will take place
in Sanliurfa, Turkey, near the border with Syria.

The US is insisting on this plan, rather than Turkey's plan for a
unilateral invasion of northeast Syria to push back the Kurdish
People's Protection Units (YPG), which were allies of the US in
defeating ISIS. Turkey's government considers the YPG to be
terrorists, allied with the terror group Turkistan Workers' Party
(PKK).

The YPG were the fighters who did the actual fighting that
destroyed the ISIS caliphate in northeast Syria. The US provided
air support and heavy weapons. Turkey particularly objects to
the YPG having possession of these heavy weapons which, they claim,
can now be turned on Turkey, since the fight with ISIS is over.

Turkey has for years been threatening to invade northern Syria to
establish a 20-25 mile buffer zone within Syria along its northern
border with Turkey. Turkey has never carried through with this
threat, but now seems determined to do so, now that the US has been
withdrawing its military.

If Turkey goes through with its threat to enter Syria and unilaterally
push back the YPG from Turkey's border, it could lead to a prolonged
war between Turkey and the YPG, and the United States military may be
forced to intervene.

The Joint Command Center could be online in a few days. The US,
Turkey and the Kurds have all agreed in principle to establish a
buffer zone. However, there are some serious disagreements. The
Kurds would like it to be 5 miles wide, while the Turks want it 25
miles wide. There are also disagreements about who will be in charge,
and what role the YPG will play.

The Bashar al-Assad regime in Damascus is categorically rejecting the
establishment of a buffer zone under control of Turkey and the US,
calling it "a blatant aggression on Syria’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity."

---- Sources:

-- US, Turkey begin work to create Syria buffer zone
https://www.france24.com/en/20190812-us-...uffer-zone
(AFP, 12-Aug-2019)

-- US and Turkey start work on Syria border zone
https://thedefensepost.com/2019/08/12/sy...on-turkey/
(Defense Post, 12-Aug-2019)

-- Intel: Why a military confrontation between Turkey and the Kurds in
Syria might be good news for Russia
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina...ussia.html
(Al Monitor, 12-Aug-2019)

-- Turkey can act on its own in northern Syria if US plan fails:
Defense Minister
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/other-p...ter-145726
(Hurriyet, 12-Aug-2019)

-- Syria strongly condemns continued destructive US interference in
its affairs and rejects US-Turkish understandings
https://www.sana.sy/en/?p=170065
(Sana, Damascus, 26-Jul-2019)


-- Turkey to 'rip apart terror corridor' in Syria regardless of US
talks: Erdogan
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/26072019
(Rudaw, Kurdistan 26-Jul-2019)

-- US warns Turkey on Syria amid last-ditch talks to resolve buffer
zone dispute
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina...-zone.html
(Al Monitor, 6-Aug-2019)

-- Syria government ‘categorically rejects’ US-Turkey buffer zone
plans
https://thedefensepost.com/2019/08/08/sy...ffer-zone/
(Defense Post, 8-Aug-2019)

-- Turkey’s demand for a Syria buffer zone is about oil, not terror
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opini...not-terror
(Washington Examiner, 31-Jul-2019)

-- Turkish assault on Kurdish-held Syria averted after agreement with
US on 'safezone'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08...-safezone/
(Telegraph, London, 7-Aug-2019)

[Warren Dew]

It would be ironic if some of Turkey's S-400s end up shooting down Russian planes.