Generational Dynamics World View

[David Horn]

(02-12-2020, 01:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 12-Feb-2020 World View: WHO investigation team in China

There still remains the question of what the CCP thugs are hiding.

I suspect the virus is an unsatisfactory bioweapon built using CRSPR that escaped the lab. That it is highly contagious and has a long incubation period where the host is infectious makes that a viable guess. That they have no counter to it makes in unsatisfactory.

[Marypoza]

(02-09-2020, 03:43 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-09-2020, 12:05 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 09-Feb-2020 World View: The old person's idea

Re Buttigieg: "He's the old person's idea of what a young person
should be" -- NPR's Mara Liasson appearing on Fox News

Actually, he's the brilliant professor everyone wants to have, but no one really understands.  There's no question he's brilliant.  There's no question he's knowledgeable.  The only question is wisdom, and there, I tend to think he's a perfect Dwight Eisenhower for the next 1T … assuming we don't burn the place to ground in the interim.

--- actually his Dad was/is the Professor, & a Marxist 2 boot. I'm surprised the priests let him teach there. But John has the right of it.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Feb-2020 World View: Huge jump in Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) cases and deaths

In the last couple of hours, China's Hubei province, which contains
the city of Wuhan, has just reported a huge jump in the number of
confirmed cases of Wuhan Coronavirus, now officially named Covid-19.

The number of reported cases had been leveling off, giving hope that
the virus cases might have peaked. On Wednesday, for example, the
number of new cases in Hubei was reported to be 1,310, and in all of
China's mainland as 2,015.

But on Thursday, Hubei reported 14,840 new cases, a huge jump.

The big jump is being blamed on a new methodology for identifying
confirmed cases. But it's not clear how the new methodology affected
the results.

However, another number has taken a big jump, and counting for this
number is being done the old fashioned way.

Health officials in Hubei province said 242 people had died from the
virus on Wednesday, compared to 97 on Tuesday, and 103 on Monday. The
big jump in the number of confirmed cases might be explained by a new
methodology for counting cases, but you can't explain the jump in
deaths by a new methodology for counting dead people.

As usual, we have no idea whether the CCP thugs are lying or hiding
something or are totally incompetent -- and it's probably that they're
totally incompetent, since they're pretty incompetent about everything
else as well. And we note again the fact that for weeks the CCP thugs
have been refusing to allow the American CDC scientists come to Hubei
province to investigate.

Still, 14,840 new cases in one day, however explained, is very
concerning. We're beginning to see larger outbreaks elsewhere,
including Singapore with 50 cases.

---- Sources:

-- Coronavirus death toll leaps in China's Hubei province
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china...SKBN207025
(Reuters, 12-Feb-2020)

-- 18,480 new cases / Virus deaths in China's Hubei rises by 242
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/la...6159a8f568
(AP, 13-Feb-2020)

-- Coronavirus latest updates: deaths in China pass 1,300 with huge
jump in cases – live news
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...-live-news
(Guardian, London, 12-Feb-2020)

[Warren Dew]

Previously they were counting only cases that were confirmed by test and hospitalized, so they weren't counting even confirmed cases that were turned away from the hospital. That was obviously a suspect method, and maybe they're now counting all confirmed cases.

Perhaps they've started counting deaths that occur outside the hospital as well.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Feb-2020 World View: Lung imaging

(02-12-2020, 09:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Previously they were counting only cases that were confirmed by
> test and hospitalized, so they weren't counting even confirmed
> cases that were turned away from the hospital. That was obviously
> a suspect method, and maybe they're now counting all confirmed
> cases.

> Perhaps they've started counting deaths that occur outside the
> hospital as well.

AFP: "This means officials can use lung imaging on suspected cases to
diagnose the virus, rather than the standard nucleic acid tests."

-- China’s virus death toll surges to over 240 in a day
https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/02/articl...-in-a-day/
(AFP, 13-Feb-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus bioweapon rumor

Guest Wrote:> Three days ago, I would have laughed if someone had told me this
> was a bio-weapon leak. Now, after what I have read, I think it
> was. If the Chinese CCP are innocent, then why do they act so
> guilty? If this disease has been weaponized, the whole world is
> in real trouble. The CCP won't release a lot of genetic profile
> information to the CDC or WHO. Speculation is that it would point
> to the virus being man made and weaponized.

> One other aspect of these types of disease is the 'double-hit'. I
> listened to medical experts saying that SARS was usually in two
> phases. The first infection was a bad flu, but when the patient
> was infected for a second time, SARS killed him. This might happen
> again, which would mean the patients being released could still
> die if infected a second time.

This biowar rumor keeps popping up, but it's still in the category of
alarmist and totally lacking in evidence.

The only "evidence" that people point to is the extremely paranoid
behavior of the CCP.

The problem is that "extremely paranoid behavior" is normal for the
CCP thugs. They view Christianity as a Western social movement to
overthrow the CCP. They view "democracy" as a Western ideology whose
only purpose is to undermine the CCP.

What the CCP thugs would really like to do is figure out a way to
claim that the coronavirus is a biowar weapon -- launched by the US to
attack China. They haven't figured out a way to do that yet, but
they're doing the second-best thing -- keep the CDC out.

Just as nutcases in America blame the weather on Trump, there are
plenty of nutcases in the CCP who either blame the US for causing the
virus, or who blame the US for taking advantage of the virus to attack
the CCP.

Remember that the CCP thugs make one incredibly stupid decision after
another, since they don't care about the people, but only care about
staying in power. They would gladly let half of China die if they
thought it meant that they would be in charge of the other half. So
the fact that they're making stupid, paranoid decisions is not
evidence of anything except their own stupidity and paranoia.

Incidentally, I understand that the WHO team has finally arrived in
China, but they're still being blocked from visiting Wuhan.

[David Horn]

(02-12-2020, 06:53 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(02-09-2020, 03:43 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-09-2020, 12:05 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 09-Feb-2020 World View: The old person's idea

Re Buttigieg: "He's the old person's idea of what a young person should be" -- NPR's Mara Liasson appearing on Fox News

Actually, he's the brilliant professor everyone wants to have, but no one really understands.  There's no question he's brilliant.  There's no question he's knowledgeable.  The only question is wisdom, and there, I tend to think he's a perfect Dwight Eisenhower for the next 1T … assuming we don't burn the place to ground in the interim.

--- actually his Dad was/is the Professor, & a Marxist 2 boot. I'm surprised the priests let him teach there. But John has the right of it.

His father was from Malta, which has a rich history in the Roman Catholic Church.  The tiny nation has been ruled by virtually every power in the region, dating back into prehistory, but the relationship with the RC church is the one that still stands today.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Liking and disliking

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> I find myself quite torn here. I intensely dislike Putin and the
> thugocracy he runs, but I also despise Erdogan and the Islamist
> dictatorship he's created in Turkey. If there would be no
> ramifications elsewhere I might support the "let's you and him
> fight" idea.

> I think the most important step for the US is to remove all the
> B61's at Incirlik if that hasn't already been done. Then maybe
> line up US and European ships in the Aegean to stop the
> forthcoming boat flotillas. However I doubt any European country
> has the stones to do that.

This is an interesting observation.

Of course I can't apply the Generational Dynamics analysis methodology
if I worry about whom I like or dislike. Still, it's a personally
interesting question whom I like or dislike, so your post made me
think about it.

I guess it's not surprising that I tend to like politicians who do
well in Generational Dynamics analyses, and dislike the others.
That's the opposite of finding that a politician does well in an
analysis because I like him. In fact, likeablity is an extremely
misleading criterion, since it's affected by ethnic or religious
biases. For example, I try as much as possible to stay neutral
between Jews and Arabs, even though almost everyone else hates one and
loves the other.

Hitler was greatly beloved by his German constituents. He won
elections, and he was very popular. But still, he was a genocidal
monster and so I pretty much dislike him.

Bashar al-Assad is an interesting example today. He is also a
sociopathic monster and war criminal, and gets personal pleasure out
of seeing tens of thousands of his political enemies suffer grotesque
torture and atrocities in his Saydnaya Prison in Damascus. But my
articles kept getting comments from Russian and Syrian trolls telling
me what a nice guy he is. I remember one guy explaining that he's a
great, wonderful opthamologist who is trying to lead his nation in the
best way. I advised him not to seek al-Assad for medical treatment, or
he might have his eyes removed.

I particularly remember one Syrian troll named Jan Fearing. She would
tell about her visits to Damascus and particularly her interviews with
mothers living in Damascus. These mothers thought al-Assad was
wonderful and generous to his people, with policies that particularly
benefited children. Jan Fearing apparently thought that by telling me
these stories, and by being semi-flirtatious with me, I would come to
love al-Assad too. Good luck with that! Finally she said, "Well, at
least you aren't calling me a troll anymore." And I wrote back once
again listing some of al-Assad's atrocities, concluding with "And yes,
you are definitely a troll."

Several trolls talked about how much Syrians loved al-Assad, and how
he won elections. So if I were to give in to these trolls and to Jan
Fearing's flirtations, I suppose I would like al-Assad too. But I
don't. I intensely despise him because of his actions, his genocide,
his ethnic cleansing, and his atrocities.

A lot of people seem to like Vladimir Putin, and there have been
plenty of paid Russian trolls making comments on my articles. I
started writing about the paid Russian trolls as early as 2014. I've
always considered complaints that Russia interfered with 2016 election
to be somewhat ridiculous, since Russian trolls are total idiots.

Anyway, Putin is well beloved, but Putin lies about everything. These
include lying about Russian soldiers in Ukraine, lying after Russians
shot down a passenger plane with a Buk missile, lying about not
invading Crimea, lying about whether Russia is going to annex Crimea,
and then annexing Crimea. He poisoned people in Britain with nerve
agent Novichok and lied about it. There are lots more lies related to
Bashar al-Assad's use of Sarin gas and chlorine gas. And the entire
Astana and Sochi "peace process" with Erdogan was complete joke. So,
as you can guess, I really dislike Putin.

In America, Trump has made some remarkable achievements for which the
country is better off, contrasted to Adam Schiff, who lied repeatedly
and manufactured evidence, and was a total sleazebag deserving to live
in a sewer. Schiff is loved by the Democrats and the media because he
hates Trump and the 63 million Trump supporters.

This shows why it would be dangerous for me to base my analyses on
"liking" or "disliking." People who are "liked" are held to a very
low standard, so they can lie and commit atrocities with impunity.
Hitler was loved, so he could kill the Jews with impunity; al-Assad is
loved, so he can slaughter the Sunni Arabs with impunity; and Adam
Schiff is loved, so he can lie, manufacture evidence, or commit any
crime he wants with impunity. Trump, on the other hand, is hated, so
he's held to a much higher standard of honesty and behavior than any
Democrat, as a result of which he's forced to be extremely honest.
Another example is Bill Clinton, who is beloved by the Democrats and
media, even though he violently raped close to a dozen women with
impunity.

So now let's turn to Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He is widely hated in
America and Europe, but I have to consider that to be irrelevant, and
look at his behavior.

Here are some things about Erdogan to dislike:
- He's taken control of the press.
- He's jailed over 100,000 political enemies.
- He's defied Nato and bought Russian S-400s.
- He hates Kurds.

However, all of those things are offset by some real issues:
- Kurds have been conducting terrorist attacks since the 1980s.
- There was a major military coup attempt in 2016.
- He's hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees as a humanitarian gesture.
- The EU has frequently broken promises to him and humiliated him.

So there is some balance between the reasons to like or dislike
Erdogan.

But what I actually like about Erdogan is that he doesn't lie, at
least not more than a typical politician. If you take a look at those
four criticisms above, he admits them and defends them. That makes
him different from the sleazebags like Putin, Khamenei, al-Assad and
Schiff, who simply lie through their teeth, and deny what is obviously
true. There's a certain honesty to Erdogan that I like, and while his
behavior is bad, it's not as bad as the others' behavior. And as in
the case of Trump, he's forced to be as honest as possible because
he's more "disliked" than the others, and so is held to a much higher
honesty standard.

However, I have to add again, I can't let "liking" or "disliking"
influence my analyses, and I point out, as I always do, that my web
site contains about thousands or articles, analyses and predictions on
hundreds of countries and societies, and they've all turned out to be
true or trending true. None has been wrong. By contrast, analysts
and journalists who allow themselves to be led by what they like or
dislike are usually wrong about 50% of the time.

When I was in college specializing in Mathematical Logic, I always
liked to recall something by Bertrand Russell:

Quote:> "Now in the beginning everything is self-evident, and
> it is hard to see whether one self-evident proposition follows
> from another or not. Obviousness is always the enemy to
> correctness. Hence we must invent a new and difficult symbolism in
> which nothing is obvious."

Russell's advice is very useful when you're trying to prove something
like the Gödel Incompleteness Theorem, which takes "new and difficult
symbolism" to an extreme, but for Generational Dynamics I don't have
the luxury of inventing new symbolism so that nothing will be obvious,
since the stuff I write is meant to be read by the general public, not
by mathematicians. But the problem is the same in Mathematics or in
Generational Dynamics -- if you "like" something, or if something is
"obvious," that doesn't mean that it's true, and might sometimes mean
that it's false.

As for withdrawing from Incirlik, that's a bad idea because we're
going to need Erdogan as an ally as long as possible, whether we like
him or not.

[Marypoza]

(02-13-2020, 05:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Liking and disliking

Xeraphim1 Wrote:>   I find myself quite torn here. I intensely dislike Putin and the
>   thugocracy he runs, but I also despise Erdogan and the Islamist
>   dictatorship he's created in Turkey. If there would be no
>   ramifications elsewhere I might support the "let's you and him
>   fight" idea.

>   I think the most important step for the US is to remove all the
>   B61's at Incirlik if that hasn't already been done. Then maybe
>   line up US and European ships in the Aegean to stop the
>   forthcoming boat flotillas. However I doubt any European country
>   has the stones to do that.

This is an interesting observation.

Of course I can't apply the Generational Dynamics analysis methodology
if I worry about whom I like or dislike.  Still, it's a personally
interesting question whom I like or dislike, so your post made me
think about it.

I guess it's not surprising that I tend to like politicians who do
well in Generational Dynamics analyses, and dislike the others.
That's the opposite of finding that a politician does well in an
analysis because I like him.  In fact, likeablity is an extremely
misleading criterion, since it's affected by ethnic or religious
biases.  For example, I try as much as possible to stay neutral
between Jews and Arabs, even though almost everyone else hates one and
loves the other.

Hitler was greatly beloved by his German constituents.  He won
elections, and he was very popular.  But still, he was a genocidal
monster and so I pretty much dislike him.

Bashar al-Assad is an interesting example today.  He is also a
sociopathic monster and war criminal, and gets personal pleasure out
of seeing tens of thousands of his political enemies suffer grotesque
torture and atrocities in his Saydnaya Prison in Damascus.  But my
articles kept getting comments from Russian and Syrian trolls telling
me what a nice guy he is.  I remember one guy explaining that he's a
great, wonderful opthamologist who is trying to lead his nation in the
best way.  I advised him not to seek al-Assad for medical treatment, or
he might have his eyes removed.

I particularly remember one Syrian troll named Jan Fearing.  She would
tell about her visits to Damascus and particularly her interviews with
mothers living in Damascus.  These mothers thought al-Assad was
wonderful and generous to his people, with policies that particularly
benefited children.  Jan Fearing apparently thought that by telling me
these stories, and by being semi-flirtatious with me, I would come to
love al-Assad too.  Good luck with that!  Finally she said, "Well, at
least you aren't calling me a troll anymore."  And I wrote back once
again listing some of al-Assad's atrocities, concluding with "And yes,
you are definitely a troll."

Several trolls talked about how much Syrians loved al-Assad, and how
he won elections.  So if I were to give in to these trolls and to Jan
Fearing's flirtations, I suppose I would like al-Assad too.  But I
don't.  I intensely despise him because of his actions, his genocide,
his ethnic cleansing, and his atrocities.

A lot of people seem to like Vladimir Putin, and there have been
plenty of paid Russian trolls making comments on my articles.  I
started writing about the paid Russian trolls as early as 2014.  I've
always considered complaints that Russia interfered with 2016 election
to be somewhat ridiculous, since Russian trolls are total idiots.

Anyway, Putin is well beloved, but Putin lies about everything.  These
include lying about Russian soldiers in Ukraine, lying after Russians
shot down a passenger plane with a Buk missile, lying about not
invading Crimea, lying about whether Russia is going to annex Crimea,
and then annexing Crimea.  He poisoned people in Britain with nerve
agent Novichok and lied about it.  There are lots more lies related to
Bashar al-Assad's use of Sarin gas and chlorine gas.  And the entire
Astana and Sochi "peace process" with Erdogan was complete joke.  So,
as you can guess, I really dislike Putin.

In America, Trump has made some remarkable achievements for which the
country is better off, contrasted to Adam Schiff, who lied repeatedly
and manufactured evidence, and was a total sleazebag deserving to live
in a sewer.  Schiff is loved by the Democrats and the media because he
hates Trump and the 63 million Trump supporters.

This shows why it would be dangerous for me to base my analyses on
"liking" or "disliking."  People who are "liked" are held to a very
low standard, so they can lie and commit atrocities with impunity.
Hitler was loved, so he could kill the Jews with impunity; al-Assad is
loved, so he can slaughter the Sunni Arabs with impunity; and Adam
Schiff is loved, so he can lie, manufacture evidence, or commit any
crime he wants with impunity.  Trump, on the other hand, is hated, so
he's held to a much higher standard of honesty and behavior than any
Democrat, as a result of which he's forced to be extremely honest.
Another example is Bill Clinton, who is beloved by the Democrats and
media, even though he violently raped close to a dozen women with
impunity.

So now let's turn to Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  He is widely hated in
America and Europe, but I have to consider that to be irrelevant, and
look at his behavior.

Here are some things about Erdogan to dislike:
- He's taken control of the press.
- He's jailed over 100,000 political enemies.
- He's defied Nato and bought Russian S-400s.
- He hates Kurds.

However, all of those things are offset by some real issues:
- Kurds have been conducting terrorist attacks since the 1980s.
- There was a major military coup attempt in 2016.
- He's hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees as a humanitarian gesture.
- The EU has frequently broken promises to him and humiliated him.

So there is some balance between the reasons to like or dislike
Erdogan.

But what I actually like about Erdogan is that he doesn't lie, at
least not more than a typical politician.  If you take a look at those
four criticisms above, he admits them and defends them.  That makes
him different from the sleazebags like Putin, Khamenei, al-Assad and
Schiff, who simply lie through their teeth, and deny what is obviously
true.  There's a certain honesty to Erdogan that I like, and while his
behavior is bad, it's not as bad as the others' behavior.  And as in
the case of Trump, he's forced to be as honest as possible because
he's more "disliked" than the others, and so is held to a much higher
honesty standard.

However, I have to add again, I can't let "liking" or "disliking"
influence my analyses, and I point out, as I always do, that my web
site contains about thousands or articles, analyses and predictions on
hundreds of countries and societies, and they've all turned out to be
true or trending true.  None has been wrong.  By contrast, analysts
and journalists who allow themselves to be led by what they like or
dislike are usually wrong about 50% of the time.

When I was in college specializing in Mathematical Logic, I always
liked to recall something by Bertrand Russell:

Quote:>   "Now in the beginning everything is self-evident, and
>   it is hard to see whether one self-evident proposition follows
>   from another or not. Obviousness is always the enemy to
>   correctness. Hence we must invent a new and difficult symbolism in
>   which nothing is obvious."

Russell's advice is very useful when you're trying to prove something
like the Gödel Incompleteness Theorem, which takes "new and difficult
symbolism" to an extreme, but for Generational Dynamics I don't have
the luxury of inventing new symbolism so that nothing will be obvious,
since the stuff I write is meant to be read by the general public, not
by mathematicians.  But the problem is the same in Mathematics or in
Generational Dynamics -- if you "like" something, or if something is
"obvious," that doesn't mean that it's true, and might sometimes mean
that it's false.

As for withdrawing from Incirlik, that's a bad idea because we're
going to need Erdogan as an ally as long as possible, whether we like
him or not.

-- so lemme get this straight: U like the Donald but not his bff Vlad the lmpuppeteer. Amirite?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Hubei province: 4,823 new coronavirus cases

• High Fashion: A passenger at a Beijing railway station covers
  her head and body with plastic bags for added protection against the
  coronavirus. (SCMP)

Yesterday's huge jump in Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) cases -- 18,840
new cases, 242 deaths in Hubei province -- turned out to be a one-day
phenomenon, caused by a change in diagnostic criteria.

Friday's report is of 4,823 new cases and 116 more deaths.

These new case figures are lower than yesterday's big surge, but still
higher than the preceding trend.

Unconfirmed reports on tv said that concerns have been raised that the
virus cannot be contained in either Singapore or Japan. North Korea
says that they have no cases, but of course they won't know until
people start dying.

The CDC still has not been permitted to visit Wuhan city. This gives
the very strong impression that the Chinese are hiding something very
serious.

International anger is growing that the Chinese apparently knew about
the virus as early as October, but ignored it and censored reports
about it until January. China is being blamed for the spread of the
virus both inside and outside of China.

Xi Jinping has rarely appeared in public since mid-January, since he
doesn't want to be blamed for the unfolding disaster. However,
several local officials in Wuhan city have been fired.

---- Source:

-- Coronavirus: Hubei province reports 4,823 new cases and 116 more
deaths
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...d-116-more
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 14-Feb-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Vlad the puppeteer?

(02-13-2020, 08:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- so lemme get this straight: U like the Donald but not his bff
> Vlad the lmpuppeteer. Amirite?
> Bernie/Tulsi 2020

I'm not sure what you're saying, since I'm not familiar with some of
the words you're using, and I wonder if those words are local to some
Midwest cult or enclave, but I think you're saying that Putin is a
puppeteer and Trump is the puppet. I've heard that before from the
loony left, but it's a totally loony fantasy, and bears no resemblance
to reality.

I saw Tulsi Gabbard again on Fox yesterday. Perhaps she's Fox's
choice for the Democratic nominee.

On the other hand, MS-NBC's choice for Democratic nominee is anybody
but Bernie Sanders.

Update: Tulsi Gabbard will be on Fox Business Network sometime
in the next hour or two (i.e., sometime between now and 11 am ET 2/14).

Correction: Tulsi will be interviewed in the 11am-noon hour.

Update: In response to a question about why she's still running, she
pointed to her experience and her issues, she said that unlike the
other candidates she's running a campaign based on issues, not just
hatred of Trump, and said that there's an almost total media blackout
of her campaign. She said, for example, that Buttigieg has had 11
media townhalls, and she's had only one. [Paragraph corrected]

Comment: I would guess that the reason that the mainstream media hates
her is because she doesn't hate Trump and 63 million Trump supporters,
which is the one and only important thing to the Democrats.

[Warren Dew]

(02-13-2020, 05:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As for withdrawing from Incirlik, that's a bad idea because we're
going to need Erdogan as an ally as long as possible, whether we like
him or not.

Of course, part of the reason we need him is because Incirlik is so well positioned, and we don't really have any alternatives for covering that part of the world.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Feb-2020 World View: Stock market trend

Higgenbotham Wrote:> Let's say the stock market futures have topped out at this
> session's all time high of 3388.50 on the March S&P futures. It
> would seem reasonable that it could happen given the extremes in
> valuation and the uncertainty in the economy.

> I would estimate fair value on the S&P at no more than 1300
> (probably less) based on long term trend and long term earnings,
> provided we are in a "run of the mill" cycle (which I don't think
> we are, but in that case, fair value in much less, so let's just
> be conservative and use "run of the mill" analysis as the truth on
> that will manifest as time goes on). Before the bear market is
> done, the "run of the mill" bear market will typically undershoot
> fair value by 50%. Assuming that type of cycle, the trend will
> move higher even as the market moves lower and may be at 1500 or
> so when the market bottoms. That would put the "conservative"
> target on the S&P somewhere around 750 (and probably much less).

> I think Tesla is a key (maybe the key) stock to watch because it
> represents a barometer for optimism about the future, much more so
> than any of the FAANGS (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and
> Google, as those companies have met their missions) in my opinion.
> It also represents a barometer for the rampant greed and
> speculation, long and short. If Tesla has topped (and I think it
> has) even if the high in the Nasdaq is in the future (and I don't
> think it is), it is not far away. Months at the most, it would
> seem.

I think that this analysis is exactly right.

I just updated my DJIA historical page for the first time in a while:

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...i.djia.htm

It says that the current DJIA trend value is 9325. If we assume a
roughly ten to one ratio, then the current S&P 500 trend value would
be more like 932.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Feb-2020 World View: HHS Secretary gives harsh criticism of China over coronavirus transparency

On Friday morning, Health and Human Services secretary Alex Azar was
interviewed on CNBC, where he harshly criticized China for its
lack of transparency with regard to the coronavirus emergency.

Here are the major points:

• An American CDC team has been made available to them for 39
  days, but the Chinese have blocked them.
  
  
• A World Health Organization (WHO) has theoretically received
  approval, but are still being blocked.
  
  
• The WHO and CDC need access to the original genetic sequencing and
  raw data, not "sterilized information," to run studies to get answers
  to key questions, how severe is this, how does it transmit, is there
  asymptomatic transmission, what's the incubation period.
  
  
• Significantly, Azar did not answer, and left hanging, the question
  of whether the virus occurred naturally or was a bioweapon. He made
  it clear that this question will only be resolved when the CDC and NIH
  personnel are able to evaluate the raw data.

Here are some excerpts (my transcription):

Quote:> "The problem is with China is that you don't know what
> you don't know. So we're getting a lot of information, but I
> really think that the World Health Organization must insist that
> China be fully transparent and be transparent and fully
> cooperative, as they would insist on the United States or any
> other country.

> We need to get this team that I have offered now for 39 days of
> CDC experts - we gotta get them into China, and they've gotta be
> given access to data -- genetic sequences -- and run the studies
> to get answers to key questions -- how severe is this, how does it
> transmit, is there asymptomatic transmission, what's the
> incubation period. We need these answers, China needs these
> answers.

> [Question: Do you know for a fact that this virus occurred
> naturally, and not in some kind of P4 bioweapons lab?]

> We need to be very careful not to engage in speculation here,
> until we have data and evidence. We need transparent access to
> all first generation genetic sequencing. And we gotta get on the
> ground and do what we always do -- work shoulder to shoulder with
> the Chinese scientific experts. To just look at raw data, and
> solve these questions. ...

> They [China] keep saying, and the World Health Organization keeps
> saying, that there's an agreement to send a World Health
> Organization team with CDC and NIH officials as part of that, but
> until the visas are in the passports I can't take that to the
> bank. It's gotta happen, but then just getting there isn't good
> enough. They can't be put in a conference room, and given
> sterilized information or data. They've gotta be able to work
> shoulder to shoulder with the Chinese experts, for China's own
> benefit, to get the answers to these key questions."

In response to a question about Singapore, where human to human
transmission is occurring:

Quote:> "We're assessing the data, hour by hour, to determine
> the epidemiology to assess whether further travel restrictions are
> warranted. With Singapore, one of the questions is whether we're
> seeing true multi-generational community spreading, in other
> words, a spread to a spread to a spread, or whether we'e seeing a
> first generation cluster. We've gotta get to the bottom of
> that."

He also offered the following advice to everyone: Wash your hands,
cough into your sleeve, and don't touch your face.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/02/14/hh...virus.html

[Marypoza]

(02-13-2020, 09:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Vlad the puppeteer?

(02-13-2020, 08:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote: >   -- so lemme get this straight: U like the Donald but not his bff
>   Vlad the lmpuppeteer. Amirite?
>   Bernie/Tulsi 2020

I'm not sure what you're saying, since I'm not familiar with some of
the words you're using, and I wonder if those words are local to some
Midwest cult or enclave, but I think you're saying that Putin is a
puppeteer and Trump is the puppet.  I've heard that before from the
loony left, but it's a totally loony fantasy, and bears no resemblance
to reality.

-- yeah & you're showing your biases

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Feb-2020 World View: Biases

(02-14-2020, 05:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- yeah & you're showing your biases

What bias is that?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan
  
• The year of laughable peace agreements
  
• Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
  

****
**** US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan
****


American Marines in Afghanistan (Getty)

This could be a Saturday Night Live skit. And maybe it will be.

The United States, led by Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, announced
an agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan whose final objective
would be to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan.

According to Esper on Thursday:

<QUOTE>"The best, if not only solution forward is a political
agreement. We have the basis for one on the table, and we are
taking a hard look at it. We are consulting with our allies. We
are consulting with Congress and others. And I think peace
deserves a chance."<END QUOTE>

It's not exactly a "peace treaty," since no one pretends that it will
bring peace. And it's not a truce, since no one pretends that the US
and the Taliban will stop killing each other. And it's not a
ceasefire, since no one pretends that anyone will cease firing. It's
being called a "reduction in violence" which, I assume, means that the
number of schoolchildren that the Taliban will kill with bombs every
week will be reduced by, say, 25%. That's progress, isn't it?

And it's not a permanent "reduction in violence" agreement. It's a
7-day "reduction in violence" agreement. If the Taliban uphold their
commitments during the 7 days, then negotiations would begin within 10
days for a permanent U.S.-Taliban peace agreement. Where the
negotiations will take place was not announced, but Germany and Norway
have offered to host the talks. The Afghan government is not party to
the agreement.

And then if the negotiations go well, the United States will begin to
withdraw troops from Afghanistan. There are about 12,000 American
troops in Afghanistan, and about 4,000 troops from other Nato
countries.

It takes my breath away.

By the way, the US and the Taliban announced an agreement in
September, and the Taliban were coming to Camp David to sign it. But
them a terrorist set off a car bomb in Kabul, killing 12 people
including an American soldier, so Trump called off the signing
ceremony. Something like that could happen again during the 7-dy
reduction in violence.

****
**** The year of laughable peace agreements
****

Whenever any politician says anything like:

<QUOTE>"There is no military solution. The only possible
solution is a political solution."<END QUOTE>

then he's nothing but a babbling idiot. The same is true when a
politician, like Esper, says "And I think peace deserves a
chance."

There is NEVER a political solution to a war. (Well, just to protect
myself, let's just change that to "almost never.")

If it's a generational crisis war, then it end will with an explosive
genocidal climax and victory. WW II in Europe did not end because
Churchill and Hitler got together and signed a peace agreement. WW II
in Asia did not end because FDR and Emperor Hirohito agreed to a
political solution mediated by Charles de Gaulle.

If it's a non-crisis war, then it might end with victory and
surrender, or it might end with a "peace agreement." But in the
latter case, the peace agreement will never last. Typically, in these
situations, the combatants alternate between periods of war that end
in ceasefires, and periods of "peace" that end when the peace
agreement collapses. The Jews and the Arabs have signed multiple
"peace agreements," but they don't last. The conflict between Jews
and Palestinians will not end except through a massive bloody war,
where one side or the other achieves victory, and the other side
surrenders. That's the way the world works.

As the old saying goes:

<QUOTE>"Peace is that brief, glorious moment in history when
everybody stands around reloading."<END QUOTE>

So let's take a look at three "peace agreements" that are in the
news these days.

• Idlib Syria Astana/Sochi De-escalation agreement
  Agreement between Russia and Turkey. Syrian regime is not a party.
  
  There is a massive disaster unfolding in Idlib. There are three
  possible paths: (1) Sociopathic monster Bashar al-Assad, backed by
  Russia, will slaughter millions of innocent men, women and children.
  (2) Turkey will open its border and let millions of refugees flood
  into Turkey and Europe. (3) Turkey and al-Assad will go to war.
  ( "9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib"
  )
  
  For sleazebag Vladimir Putin, the whole Astana de-escalation thing was
  a big joke. The only objective was to provide political cover for
  genocide and ethnic cleansing by Putin and al-Assad, and also by
  Iran's sleazebag, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei.
  
  
• Mideast "Peace to Properity" agreement
  Agreement between US and Israel. The Arabs are not a party.
  
  This turns out to be a pragmatic Rube Goldberg agreement for a
  two-state solution, with a promise of $60 billion to Jordan, Lebanon
  and Egypt to spend on Palestinians to implement the agreement. ( "6-Feb-20 World View -- Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy"
  )
  
  It's assumed that the Israelis and Palestinians would continue to hate
  each other, but they would stop fighting because of the money.
  
  
• Afghanistan "reduction in violence" agreement
  Agreement between US and Taliban. The Afghan government is not a
  party.
  
  This is the one we're talking about today. As I've written many
  times, Generational Dynamics proves that no "peace" in Afghanistan is
  possible. I'll summarize the reasons again below. ( "16-Dec-19 World View -- Why we can never prevail in Afghanistan"
  )
  
  Why does the US want of the current US-Taliban agreement? It's to
  provide a political path for the withdrawal of American forces with
  dignity. Why do the Taliban want it? It's because they want the
  withdrawal of American forces, and so American and Taliban objectives
  coincide to that extent. However, the Taliban want to inflict as much
  humiliation as possible on the US forces as they're withdrawal, and
  then to move on to Kabul and overthrow the government, to prove that
  America's 18 year involvement in Afghanistan was a waste of time,
  blood and money.

It's interesting how similar these three laughable "peace agreements"
are:

• They're all politically meaningless.
  
• They all exclude the most important party.
  
• The party they exclude is always the side that wants to continue
  the war.

As I say, politicians are babbling idiots.

If you look at the world today, American and the Western countries
generally feel obligated to honor their commitments. But three major
countries -- Russia, Iran and China -- see commitments and peace
agreements as a way of controlling the West, since they can violate
the agreements with impunity, but the Western countries remain bound
to them. In fact, this has been an actual strategy of Russia and
Vladimir Putin since 2010 -- use Russia's veto power in the UN
Security Council to cripple the foreign policy of America and the
West, while Russia does whatever the hell it wants, such as annexing
Crimea. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)

****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.

Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.

The above is a brief summary of stuff that I've written about in great
detail in the past about why peace will fail in Afghanistan. It's not
rocket science for the so-called "Washington experts," but it does
require studying history and trying to understand what's actually
going on in the world. But we live in a society where SAT scores have
been plummetting for decades, ever since the Boomers graduated, and
where all college courses are being taught by incredibly stupid
Marxist idiots. People in the mainstream media know nothing about the
world except Marxist sociology and women's studies. In Congress you
have total idiots like AOC who says something every day to prove how
stupid she is. And in the Administration, you have "experts" who have
also graduated from colleges teaching Marxist sociology and women's
studies.

So there's really no hope. The above summary is not rocket science,
but it's far beyond the mental capabilities of the analysts,
journalists and "experts" in Washington, almost all of whom are way
too steeped in metoo and socialist garbage to have any clue what's
really going on in the world. The same is true about many of the
other hundreds of countries and societies that I've studied, analyzed
and written about in the last 15 years. All the people in Washington
can do is stumble in the dark, until they stumble into World War III.
Then they finally learn what's going on. That's the way the world
works.

"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." -- Attributed to
American satirist Ambrose Bierce, early 1900s.

Sources:

• U.S., Taliban Negotiate 7-Day Proposal for Reduction in Violence (Dept. of Defense, 13-Feb-2020)
  
• US and Taliban agree to truce, way forward in Afghanistan (AP, 14-Feb-2020)
  
• In Afghanistan, jailed Taliban await peace, their freedom (AP, 30-Dec-2019)
  
• U.S. announces a brief truce with the Taliban in Afghanistan, as a prelude to possible negotiations (LA Times, 14-Feb-2020)
  
• U.S. reportedly reaches Afghanistan truce with Taliban (Axios, 14-Feb-2020)
  
• The Afghanistan conundrum (Axios, 13-Feb-2020)
  
• Landmark Peace Pact With Taliban to Come Into Effect ‘Soon’ (Washington Free Beacon, 14-Feb-2020)
  
• US, Taliban reach truce agreement calling for 'reduction in violence' (Fox News, 14-Feb-2020)
  
• Pompeo touts partial ceasefire with Taliban in push for election-year troop reduction (Guardian, London, 13-Feb-2020)
  
• Afghanistan: airstrike kills eight after US hails breakthrough in Taliban talks (Reuters, 14-Feb-2020)
  
• Taliban, Afghan forces clash despite talk of breakthrough in peace deal (Reuters, 14-Feb-2020)
  
• Esper / Defense Secretary says start of reduction in violence period in Afghanistan 'is a moving date' (CNN, 15-Feb-2020)
  
• Ending ‘endless war’? US & Taliban reach ‘violence reduction (Russia Today, 14-Feb-2020)

Related Articles

• Why we can never prevail in Afghanistan (16-Dec-2019)
  
  
• Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations' (11-Sep-2019)
  
  
• Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)
  
  
• New head of US Central Command says Afghanistan war is unsustainable (06-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Afghan Taliban launches multiple terror attacks, then declares farcical ceasefire (10-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib (09-Feb-2020)
  
  
• Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics (22-Apr-2011)
  
  
• Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy (06-Feb-2020)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Mark Esper, Israel, Palestinians, Syria, Idlib,
Pashtuns, Northern Alliance,
Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Ambrose Bierce

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Iran and Afghanistan

utahbob Wrote:> John, Good analysis. ** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to
> sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan.
> The real impact will not be evident to most Westerners for a few
> months due to the real action is out of sight of the media in the
> hinterlands, deserts, mountains and rural area in the south.
> English is hardly spoken, so reporters will be in the dark. Most
> media and their handlers will stay in Kabul with a few brave or
> stupid souls venturing into Kandahar. They will not go to the
> farmers and see what they are doing or thinking, most of the time
> they hole up in the Hotel Intercontinental or Serena. There a few
> cities that have a bit of “modern” sheen, but really the real
> power of Afghanistan is the countryside. We might get inkling if a
> semi-clean election is held and a new Wolesi Jirga/Parliament is
> sworn in. I am not sure when the next election scheduled. Most of
> the Afghans don’t really care who runs the government: it is a
> feudal society with local warlords on the hook to deliver to the
> tribe or clan. If they don’t, somebody will step over their
> predecessor, take over and give it a try, line theirs, family and
> friends pockets.

> Many of the Taliban and government officials are related or known
> associates to each other. The powerful families, tribes, clans and
> ethnic groups are intertwined they will hash it out in local
> shuras after bazaars , back rooms and alleys. The drug industry
> and lords will have a say. In a few weeks or month spring will be
> back with warmer weather, the snowbirds or fighters will migrate
> back to the central highlands from Quetta and Karachi, dig up
> weapons in caches around Tarin Kowt and fighting season will start
> again.

> I hate to be cynical, but if or when this coronavirus hit
> Afghanistan, it will be very easy for the US and NATO to pull
> out.

utahbob Wrote:> I just found this:
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china...SKBN2060L4
> If it is in Iran, it is or will be soon in Afghanistan. There is
> no border control between the two countries.

We don't know how the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) is going to affect
the world in the next couple of months.

And you've given a good example. A big virus outbreak in Afghanistan
would change everything. Iran is already suffering from the virus
because China is buying far less oil from Iran, and Iran's economy is
already sick. If there's a big outbreak in Iran, and it's blamed on
the fact that the leadership ignored it until it was too late, that
could cause a palace coup.

There's a lot of nervousness among medical analysts that we might
still see a big explosion. Of course, here in the United States, or
in Britain or Europe, we all have sophisticated medical
infrastructures, so we'll stop it in its tracks if it gets here.

Oh wait a minute. Singapore has a very sophisticated medical
infrastructure, and some analysts are saying that it will have to burn
through Singapore. Japan is also a modern developed nation, and it's
spreading across the entire country.

The same is true in China. The Chinese are claiming that it's
contained now, but of course that just means the epiceneter, Hubei
province. China has 1.4 billion people, and it may already have
spread to even millions of people without the CCP yet knowing it.

The problem is that it's apparently possible to spread the disease
asymptomatically. A person may become infected, and then spread it to
many other period during the 14-24 day incubation period, before he
even knows he has it.

The authorities are aware of all that, but are hoping that, at least
when warmer weather comes in April or May, the virus will stop
spreading. But I've heard several experts say that they don't know
whether or not warm weather will stop the spread of the virus. And
they don't know whether it will then start to spread in the
southern hemisphere, in Australia, South America, South Africa,
and so forth.

And those are developed countries. We don't know what will happen if
it spreads to underdeveloped countries in Central Asia, Africa,
and elsewhere.

So if the current glide path to "normalcy" continues, then the
crisis should be all over in two or three months. But if there
are very bombshells -- large unexpected outbreaks in various parts
of the world -- the the world may look very different in two or
three months.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Pandemics in liberal democracies

I just heard an interview on the BBC World Service where the guy said
that he expects the "liberal democracies" to experience pandemics, and
then what they'll have to do is let the virus spread, and then treat
the severe cases in hospitals.

The last I heard, the death rate is 2.1%. So that would imply that
the world population will be 2.1% smaller a year from now.

That would be good news for climate change activists.

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-16-2020, 04:31 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Pandemics in liberal democracies

I just heard an interview on the BBC World Service where the guy said
that he expects the "liberal democracies" to experience pandemics, and
then what they'll have to do is let the virus spread, and then treat
the severe cases in hospitals.

The last I heard, the death rate is 2.1%.  So that would imply that
the world population will be 2.1% smaller a year from now.

That would be good news for climate change activists.

I see problems with our toll road sick care system.

1. Some won't call 911 'cause they have no health insurance and they know that call will bankrupt them.
2. Private prisons are run for profit maximization only. Nothing else matters
3. Food insecure Americans probably have run down immune systems
4. Homelessness, nothing else to add here.
5. Bad American diet. I wonder if the average Chinese have this problem...

I have other wonders as well. I wonder what the inability to pay mortgages and rents will do here. I also wonder about all of those other bills folks can't pay. Will they get booted out and hounded by debt collectors. I wonder what the Chinese do as well. I guess all of those unpaid bills mess up Social Credit Score.