Generational Dynamics World View

[Ragnarök_62]

(04-06-2017, 07:41 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(04-05-2017, 11:39 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Well, well, a whole cabal of war mongers seems to be there.  So,
>   Rags knows the end result.  [IS,Al Queda, or anarchy] lurk in the
>   future for the area known as "Syria". Lots of emotions, but no
>   forethought as to the ramifications of whatever the US decides to
>   do. So, how many fuck ups need to happen before the US gets the
>   idea that really, really bad results come after so called
>   humanitarian interventions? Qod, I wish Saudi Arabia would just
>   fucking run out of oil so that Qod forsaken place just goes to
>   utter shit and camels become the main means of
>   transportation. It's obvious, man. Anything McStain and Graham
>   Cracker endorse is just stupid. Rags does not get upset with
>   "humanitarian fuckups" because that's the natural state of
>   tacky,tacky humans. Oh, wait, Marco Rube and Nikki Staley joined
>   that choir.  Einstein was right, there's no limit to the amount of
>   human stupidity in this universe.

What's happening in the Mideast could neither be caused nor prevented
by any American politicians, or any politicians, but instead are
coming about because of powerful generational forces that cannot be
controlled.

After you've listened to Metallica, here's something else to put you
in the mood for what's happening:

OK, here's said Metallica I listened to before Doris Day.  - A song for our era, man.

[John J. Xenakis]

There are several problems with your Metallica song. First, it
doesn't sound like a song. It sounds a noisy war zone, which is
probably what it's meant to sound like, but it doesn't sound like a
song. Second, even though it pretends to be a "hate war" song,
everyone knows that it's really a "hate Boomer" song.

If you're into anti-war songs, there are a lot of really
nice ones from the 60s. First, they're really songs. And
second, they really are anti-war songs.

Here's a sample list:

Blowing in the Wind
This Land is Your Land, This Land is My Land
If I Had A Hammer
Give Peace A Chance
People Got To Be Free
The Times They Are a Changing
Turn, Turn, Turn
Where Have All The Flowers Gone?
Tie A Yellow Ribbon ('round the Old Oak Tree)
I'd Like To Teach The World To Sing

[Ragnarök_62]

(04-07-2017, 01:32 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: There are several problems with your Metallica song.  First, it
doesn't sound like a song.  It sounds a noisy war zone, which is
probably what it's meant to sound like, but it doesn't sound like a
song.  Second, even though it pretends to be a "hate war" song,
everyone knows that it's really a "hate Boomer" song.

If you're into anti-war songs, there are a lot of really
nice ones from the 60s.  First, they're really songs.  And
second, they really are anti-war songs.

Here's a sample list:

Blowing in the Wind
This Land is Your Land, This Land is My Land
If I Had A Hammer
Give Peace A Chance
People Got To Be Free
The Times They Are a Changing
Turn, Turn, Turn
Where Have All The Flowers Gone?
Tie A Yellow Ribbon ('round the Old Oak Tree)
I'd Like To Teach The World To Sing

Music is just a matter of taste. IOW, it's a subjective matter.

I see you have a list of 2T era songs.  You forgot one.





I like War Pigs - Black Sabbath.

Btw, I see no anti Boom stuff wrt Metallica.

Here's another sample for you.  Iron Maiden

2 Minutes to Midnight lyrics Wrote:Kill for gain or shoot to maim
But we don't need a reason
The Golden Goose is on the loose
And never out of season
Some blackened pride still burns inside
This shell of bloody treason
Here's my gun for a barrel of fun
For the love of living death.
The killer's breed or the demon's seed,
The glamor, the fortune, the pain,
Go to war again, blood is freedom's stain,
But don't you pray for my soul anymore.
Two minutes to midnight
The hands that threaten doom.
Two minutes to midnight
To kill the unborn in the womb.
The blind men shout let the creatures out
We'll show the unbelievers
The napalm screams of human flames
Of a prime time Belsen feast, yeah!
As the reasons for the carnage cut their meat and lick the gravy,
We oil the jaws of the war machine and feed it with our babies.
The killer's breed or the demon's seed,
The glamor, the fortune, the pain,
Go to war again, blood is freedom's stain,
But don't you pray for my soul anymore.
Two minutes to midnight
The hands that threaten doom.
Two minutes to midnight
To kill the unborn in the womb.
The body bags and little rags of children torn in two
And the jellied brains of those who remain to put the finger right on you.
As the madmen play on words and make us all dance to their song,
To the tune of starving millions to make a better kind of gun.
The killer's breed or the demon's seed,
The glamor, the fortune, the pain,
Go to war again, blood is freedom's stain,
But don't you pray for my soul anymore.
Two minutes to midnight
The hands that threaten doom.
Two minutes to midnight
To kill the unborn in the womb.
Midnight, all night

I like lyrics that just cut to the chase.

Hell, I can even do a poem.

On foreign oil, does the US feast
So, let the weapons fly in the Mideast.
The US military goes to shed blood.
Their graves shall be nothing but mud.
So, place the bet.
And take a chance that doom shall be met.
The Pentagram always says vital US interests are at stake.
The wise amongst us know it's a long term mistake.
Just watch the flying flak.
And await the coming of the blow-back.


...






The future landscape of the Mideast, man.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Apr-17 World View -- Japan to repopulate 148 remote islands, as confrontation with China looms

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan to repopulate 148 remote islands, as confrontation with China looms
  
• Taiwan and Japan try to settle their disputes peacefully
  

****
**** Japan to repopulate 148 remote islands, as confrontation with China looms
****


The Senkaku Islands are thought to be in the midst of vast gas and oil resources (Reuters)

Japan's government has announced plans to repopulate a cluster of 148
small, rocky islands in the hope of deterring China from unilaterally
declaring that they're China's sovereign territory, as it has done
illegally in the South China Sea.

Among these are the Senkaku Islands, which have been the focus
military near-confrontations in the past few years. The population of
the remote islands has declined by 51.3% since 1955, and restoring
even small population on 71 of the outlying islands could deter China.
There are around 6,800 islands in the archipelago, and

The announcement calls for the construction of civic facilities, the
purchasing of land, the improvement of ports and stopping foreign
vessels from illegally visiting the islands.

The greatest focus has been on the Senkaku Islands, – a chain of five
uninhabited islets and three barren rocks in the East China Sea – were
uninhabited until 1895 when Japan laid claim to them. In the ensuing
decades, the Japanese populated the chain and even set up a
fish-processing plant on one of the islands. The United States took
control of the islands during the occupation of Japan following World
War II, and handed them back in 1972. At that time, China claimed the
islands, citing ancient texts and maps, and claiming that Japan's
actions in 1895 were illegal.

In early February, three Chinese warships sailed into the water near
the Senkaku Islands, risking a military confrontation and stoking
tensions between the two countries.

Even riskier is the increased intrusion into Japanese airspace of
Chinese military aircraft, usually other fighter jets, sometimes a
bomber or reconnaissance plane. The number of such intrusions is now
averaging two per day since April of last year, nearly twice as many
as in the prior 12 months. Japan responds to each such intrusion by
scrambling up to four F-15 fighter jets to intercept the Chinese
military aircraft.

Analysts are concerned that the situation in the East China Sea is
becoming more and more volatile, more so than even in the South China
Sea, where China has illegally built artificial islands nad military
bases, and that a war in the East China Sea could break out at any
time.

The populations of Japan and China have become highly nationalistic
over their respective claims to these islands, in this generational
Crisis era. The frequency of these intrusions by both warships and
warplanes and the resulting intercepts raise the possibility of an
accident or miscalculation that could spiral into something bigger.
Japan Times and CNBC and Fox News and American Interest

Related Articles

• China sails warships near Japan's Senkaku Islands (07-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Japan-China relations 'deteriorate significantly' after repeated Chinese provocations (11-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Obama says U.S. will defend Japan over Senkaku Islands (24-Apr-2014)
  
  
• US reaffirms defense of Japan's Senkaku Islands (28-Apr-2015)
  
  
• China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax (22-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Taiwan and Japan try to settle their disputes peacefully
****

Last week, a report from a nationalist Japanese media source accused
Taiwan to sending a record high number of scientific research vessels
to "intrude" into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near the
Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by Taiwan as well as by China and
Japan. The report suggested that Taiwan's "unauthorized activities"
included fishing in addition to illegal maritime research.

If this kind of dispute had arisen between China and Japan, there
might have been a military confrontation by now. But Taiwan and
Japan, who presumably want to cooperate because of their common enemy
(China), have a history of settling these kinds of disputes peacefully
in recent years.

In April 2013, Taiwan and Japan signed a fisheries agreement to
address a decades-long dispute over fishing in contested waters in the
East China Sea. On October 31 of last year, the two sides agreed to
meet at least once a year and to establish two working groups — one on
fishery cooperation and another regarding cooperation in scientific
research. China Post (Taiwan) and Japan Times and The Diplomat

Related Articles

• Japan's Shinzo Abe blames WW II on the Smoot-Hawley Tariff act (15-Aug-2015)
  
  
• China is training for a 'short, sharp war' with Japan (21-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Asians increasingly talk about war between China and Japan (27-Dec-2012)
  
  
• Little input from Taiwan in the Japan - China dispute over the Senkaku Islands (17-Nov-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Senkaku, Senkaku Islands, Taiwan,
East China Sea, South China Sea

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

(04-07-2017, 04:22 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Here's another sample for you. Iron Maiden

2 Minutes to Midnight lyrics Wrote:> Kill for gain or shoot to maim
> But we don't need a reason
> The Golden Goose is on the loose
> And never out of season
> Some blackened pride still burns inside
> This shell of bloody treason
> Here's my gun for a barrel of fun
> For the love of living death.
> The killer's breed or the demon's seed,
> The glamor, the fortune, the pain,
> Go to war again, blood is freedom's stain,
> But don't you pray for my soul anymore.
> Two minutes to midnight
> The hands that threaten doom.
> Two minutes to midnight
> To kill the unborn in the womb.
> The blind men shout let the creatures out
> We'll show the unbelievers
> The napalm screams of human flames
> Of a prime time Belsen feast, yeah!
> As the reasons for the carnage cut their meat and lick the gravy,
> We oil the jaws of the war machine and feed it with our babies.
> The killer's breed or the demon's seed,
> The glamor, the fortune, the pain,
> Go to war again, blood is freedom's stain,
> But don't you pray for my soul anymore.
> Two minutes to midnight
> The hands that threaten doom.
> Two minutes to midnight
> To kill the unborn in the womb.
> The body bags and little rags of children torn in two
> And the jellied brains of those who remain to put the finger right on you.
> As the madmen play on words and make us all dance to their song,
> To the tune of starving millions to make a better kind of gun.
> The killer's breed or the demon's seed,
> The glamor, the fortune, the pain,
> Go to war again, blood is freedom's stain,
> But don't you pray for my soul anymore.
> Two minutes to midnight
> The hands that threaten doom.
> Two minutes to midnight
> To kill the unborn in the womb.
> Midnight, all night

Those lyrics are really awful. And once again, this isn't an anti-war
song. It's nothing but a political campaign ad that hits you over the
head with a baseball bat.

You don't need a baseball bat to make a point. Sometimes sublety does
a better job.

This time, let's pick a pure anti-war song without a baseball bat:





Peter, Paul and Mary - Where Have All The Flowers Gone ?

Where have all the flowers gone, long time passing?
Where have all the flowers gone, long time ago?
Where have all the flowers gone?
Young girls have picked them everyone.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the young girls gone, long time passing?
Where have all the young girls gone, long time ago?
Where have all the young girls gone?
Gone for husbands everyone.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the husbands gone, long time passing?
Where have all the husbands gone, long time ago?
Where have all the husbands gone?
Gone for soldiers everyone
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the soldiers gone, long time passing?
Where have all the soldiers gone, long time ago?
Where have all the soldiers gone?
Gone to graveyards, everyone.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the graveyards gone, long time passing?
Where have all the graveyards gone, long time ago?
Where have all the graveyards gone?
Gone to flowers, everyone.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the flowers gone, long time passing?
Where have all the flowers gone, long time ago?
Where have all the flowers gone?
Young girls have picked them everyone.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

[Ragnarök_62]

(04-07-2017, 10:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(04-07-2017, 04:22 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Here's another sample for you.  Iron Maiden

2 Minutes to Midnight lyrics Wrote:>   Kill for gain or shoot to maim
>   But we don't need a reason
>   The Golden Goose is on the loose
>   And never out of season
>   Some blackened pride still burns inside
>   This shell of bloody treason
>   Here's my gun for a barrel of fun
>   For the love of living death.
>   The killer's breed or the demon's seed,
>   The glamor, the fortune, the pain,
>   Go to war again, blood is freedom's stain,
>   But don't you pray for my soul anymore.
>   Two minutes to midnight
>   The hands that threaten doom.
>   Two minutes to midnight
<snip>

Quote:John X]
Those lyrics are really awful.

You need to ask yourself if they depict warfare which is that's "really awful"?

Quote:And once again, this isn't an anti-war
song.  It's nothing but a political campaign ad that hits you over the
head with a baseball bat.

John,John, where have been? Let's do an equation.
The lyrics and album covers show how how much warfare results in reality bites?
Reality bites = the result was high not copacetic.
not copacetic = bad

"Bad" is usually is what sane people try to avoid. OTOH, "good" is something sane people try to experience.

*I did say "usually".  For example you being the target of the sentence, "Good riddance" , referencing the above, that's certainly not copacetic.

Quote:You don't need a baseball bat to make a point.  Sometimes sublety does
a better job.
[/quotes]
Consider the audience. We're on the intwebs which means there's a huge audience.  Now, lots of said audience attempt the impossible and multitask while reading stuff.  Sometimes it takes a virtual baseball bat to get through.

This time, let's pick a pure anti-war song without a baseball bat:





Peter, Paul and Mary - Where Have All The Flowers Gone ?

Where have all the flowers gone, long time passing?

One can equally construe that the theme of the stanza "where have X" gone to indicate a theme of humans are stupid.  I agree with that assessment. We're tacky also, humans rank high on earth species tacky list.

We're doing that famous population overshoot thingie.  Yeah, that's just as bright as a petri dish full of  bacteria.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-08-2017, 01:42 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > One can equally construe that the theme of the stanza "where have
> X" gone to indicate a theme of humans are stupid. I agree with
> that assessment. We're tacky also, humans rank high on earth
> species tacky list.

That's very interesting, and maybe you've captured the whole concept.
Metallica is saying that "Our parents are evil," while Peter Paul and
Mary are saying that "Our parents are stupid."

[John J. Xenakis]

While we're at it, here's the most famous anti-war
poem from World War I:


In Flanders Fields
By: Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918)
Canadian Army

IN FLANDERS FIELDS the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Apr-17 World View -- Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role
  
• President Trump reinstates the 'Truman Doctrine'
  
• Shock and euphoria follow the missile strike on Syria
  

****
**** Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role
****


German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, 'This attack by the United States of America is understandable, given the aspect of the war crimes, given the suffering of innocent people and given the logjam in the UN Security Council.'

The events of the past week were not only a major humiliation to
Russia, but will also have to trigger a major strategic change in
Russia's foreign policy.

The unexpected US cruise missile strike in response to the horrific
Sarin gas attack by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on the town of
Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, killing up to 100 people, left
Russia scrambling to take face-saving measures. So Russia canceled
its "deconfliction agreement" with US designed to prevent accidental
clashes between the two air forces in Syria, though this agreement
will almost certainly be restored within weeks. War criminal al-Assad
did his part by ordering new air strikes on the same town, Khan
Sheikhoun, but this with conventional weapons. However, to bring the
point home, al-Assad committed a new war when his missiles struck a
hospital where people are recovering from al-Assad's Sarin gas attack.
Russia, Syria and Iran may take further retaliatory moves.

However, the big picture is that this week's events will require a
strategic change in Russia's policies.

As I reported in April, 2011,

Russia at that time adopted a policy of using the United Nations
Security Council to cripple Nato and US foreign policy, a strategy
that has been very successful for them for six years.

Early in 2011, Russia had abstained on the UNSC resolution authorizing
a "humanitarian" military action in Libya. As the Libyan intervention
unfolded, Russia viewed the increasingly complex situation as "mission
creep," and regretted not vetoing the resolution.

After that, Russia demanded that Nato and the US strictly limit their
activities, and Russia would back up this demand by vetoing any
attempt to go further than Russia desired. This would allow Russia to
effectively control many activities of Nato and the US, since only
activities approved by the Security Council, and hence by Russia,
could ever be permitted.

This set up a "double standard," because Russia would do what it
wanted, without seeking approval from the UNSC. Russia invaded
Georgia and took control of two provinces, without asking the UNSC.
Russia invaded East Ukraine and took control of two provinces, without
asking the UNSC. Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it, without asking
the UNSC. At the same time, any military action by the West would
have to be approved by the UNSC.

Now President Trump has done the same thing, ordering a military
strike without asking the UNSC. This act nullifies the policies
adopted by Russia in 2011, and requires a change in direction, though
the nature of that change remains to be seen. AP and CNBC and CNN

Related Articles

• Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics (22-Apr-2011)
  
  
• Putin gives angry, nationalistic speech annexing Crimea to Russia (19-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Can Ban Ki-moon prevent Russia from destroying the United Nations? (17-Sep-2013)
  

****
**** President Trump reinstates the 'Truman Doctrine'
****

Russia now has to throw out that "double standard" strategy, because
the new US administration is willing to do what Russia has been doing
all along-- take military action when considered necessary, without
asking permission from the UN Security Council (nor, by the way, from
the US Congress).

President Donald Trump seems willing to reinstate the "Truman
Doctrine" that had been repudiated by President Obama. President
Harry Truman announced the Truman Doctrine in 1947, essentially making
America the "policeman of the world." Truman's justification is that
it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime
than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World
War II. The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John
Kennedy's "ask not" speech, and every president since WW II has
followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack
Obama is the first president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine,
essentially leaving the world without a policeman.

The concept of America being the "world's policeman" was very
controversial in 1947 and it's very controversial today. And yet,
we've seen what's happened in the last eight years, when the world had
no policeman.

There are news reports of a power struggle in the White House, and
that power struggle can be interpreted as a disagreement over
reinstating the Truman Doctrine. Reportedly, Steve Bannon opposes
military actions like the one this week in Syria, while Jared Kushner
favors it. The outcome of this power struggle, which goes to the
heart of the Truman Doctrine concepts, could have a defining effect on
American foreign policy, as well as on Russia's foreign policy.
Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• U.S. foreign policy in chaos as Obama reverses himself on Syria (01-Sep-2013)
  
  
• The cost of repudiating the Truman Doctrine (06-Sep-2015)
  
  
• President Harry Truman and the Truman Doctrine (19-Sep-2006)

****
**** Shock and euphoria follow the missile strike on Syria
****

America's missile strike in Syria has received widespread praise as a
valid response to Bashar al-Assad's war crimes, but not with President
Trump's base.

I saw this myself in the stream of comments to the Breitbart version of my April 6 article "President Trump plans
military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on
civilians."

Most of the comments appeared from people among Trump's strongest
supporters, but they were shocked by this article, because they
believed that Trump would never order a military intervention in the
Mideast, something that many of them oppose. A lot of anger was
directed at me, accusing me of "fake news," and accusing me of being a
"Libtard" and trying to mislead people.

But all that changed on Thursday evening around 10 PM ET, when reports
of the military action started coming out, proving that the article
was completely accurate. At that point, the anger that many of the
commenters had directed at me began to be directed at President Trump.

Some of the comments were completely delusional, such as describing
the Sarin gas attack as a "false flag" operation, sometimes going so
far as to accuse Trump of ordering the Sarin attack himself in order
to have an excuse to bomb Syria. Probably the angriest comments were
some variation of the delusional "false flag" claim.

At the other end of the spectrum were comments that were very
thoughtful. Many people posted variations of "I voted for Trump, but
I didn't vote for this." There were some detailed analyses of why we
should never go into the Mideast, saying that we've tried in the past
and never accomplished anything, and one person saying that we should
let them kill each other so that they won't try to kill us.

However, in the mainstream media, in the US, Europe and the Mideast,
comments by world leaders have been extremely supportive, almost
verging on euphoria that the US is showing leadership once more.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both the controversy
and the euphoria are to be expected at a military attack that could
begin an all-out war. Any military attack is going to be
controversial, but the population can also easily become heavily
invested and become euphoric.

Here's how historian Wolfgang Schivelbusch describes how the euphoria
at the beginning of a war is itself highly delusional in his 2001
book, The Culture of Defeat: On National Trauma, Mourning, and
Recovery:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The passions excited in the national psyche by the
> onset of war show how deeply invested the masses now were in its
> potential outcome. Propaganda had reinforced their conviction that
> "everything was at stake," and the threat of death and defeat
> functioned like a tightly coiled spring, further heightening the
> tension. The almost festive jubilation that accompanied the
> declarations of war in Charleston in 1861 [American Civil War],
> Paris in 1870 [Franco-Prussian war], and the capitals of the major
> European powers in 1914 [World War I] were anticipatory
> celebrations of victory -- since nations are as incapable of
> imagining their own defeat as individuals are of conceiving their
> own death. The new desire to humiliate the enemy, noted by
> Burckhardt, was merely a reaction to the unprecedented posturing
> in which nations now engaged when declaring war.
>
> The deployment of armies on the battlefield is the classic
> manifestation of collective self-confidence. If both sides are not
> convinced of their military superiority, there will be no
> confrontation; rather, those who lack confidence will simply flee
> the field. Accordingly, the battle is decided the moment the
> confidence of one side fails. The will to fight ("morale")
> evaporates, the military formation collapses, and the army seeks
> salvation in flight or, if it is lucky, in organized retreat. The
> Greek term for this point in space (on the battlefield) and time
> (the course of the battle) was trope. The victors demarcated the
> spot with the weapons of the vanquished and later with monuments,
> yielding the term tropaion, from which we get our word trophy."
> (p. 6-7)<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The euphoria goes on until something goes wrong, usually some kind of
military disaster, such as the Battle of Bull Run in 1861 or the
Bataan Death March in 1941.

The panicked reaction can be much greater when a military disaster
occurs. In his 1832 book, On War, General Carl von Clausewitz
describes what happens:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The effect of defeat outside the army -- on the
> people and on the government -- is a sudden collapse of the
> wildest expectations, and total destruction of self-confidence.
> The destruction of these feelings creates a vacuum, and that
> vacuum gets filled by a fear that grows corrosively, leading to
> total paralysis. It's a blow to the whole nervous system of the
> losing side, as if caused by an electric charge. This effect may
> appear to a greater or lesser degree, but it's never completely
> missing. Then, instead of rushing to repair the misfortune with a
> spirit of determination, everyone fears that his efforts will be
> futile; or he does nothing, leaving everything to
> Fate."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the events that cause
this "sudden collapse" and "total destruction" of self-confidence are
called "regeneracy events," because they regenerate civic unity for
the first time since the end of the preceding crisis war.

You don't need any particular methodology to understand that the whole
world has become increasingly unstable in the last ten years. Because
the political atmosphere is already extremely vitriolic and is likely
to worsen further, it's worth repeating what I've written many times:
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. This is coming with 100%
certainty, irrespective of who is president. Furthermore, the
president can neither cause nor prevent this outcome. Maybe Trump's
missile attack will speed up this war, or maybe it will delay it. It
could go either way. If Hillary Clinton had won, she might have made
the same missile attack for the same reasons that Trump did. It's
impossible to tell. The only thing that we can be sure of is that we
have no way of knowing what the scenario will be, only that a regional
war will be the result, in this generational Crisis era. CNN and philly.com

Related Articles

• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians (06-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons (20-Mar-2013)
  
  
• U.N. report contains calculations implicating Syria's regime (19-Sep-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Germany, Angela Merkel, UN Security Council,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, John F Kennedy,
Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner, Battle of Bull Run,
Bataan Death March, Wolfgang Schivelbusch, Carl von Clausewitz

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Apr-17 World View -- US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt in 3-month state of emergency after Coptic church bombings
  
• US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula
  
• South Korean anxiety over North Korea and anger at China grow over THAAD deployment
  

****
**** Egypt in 3-month state of emergency after Coptic church bombings
****


Church bombing in Tanta, Egypt, on Sunday

Coordinated bombing attacks on two different Coptic Orthodox Christian
churches in two different cities in Egypt killed at least 45 people
and injured over 100. Both churches were crowded with worshippers at
the Palm Sunday service.

Palm Sunday falls each year one week before Easter, which this year
occurs on April 16 for both Western and Orthodox Christians. Palm
Sunday is one of the holiest days in the Christian calendar, marking
the triumphal entry of Jesus Christ into Jerusalem.

The Sinai terror group called Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar
Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) took credit for the both bombings.
The group changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai)
when it changed its allegiance in 2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

ABM has taken credit for the December 11, 2016, bombing of the St
Peter and St Paul chapel adjoining Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox
Cathedral in Cairo, killing 29, and promised to attack more Christian
targets. Coptic Christians make up about 10% of Egypt's population.

Egypt’s President Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi declared a state of
emergency in Egypt for three months. The measure allows authorities
to make arrests without warrants and search people's homes. Human
rights organizations have expressed concern that the state of
emergency will permit al-Sisi to take on additional dictatorial
powers, and will abuse those powers. The dictator Hosni Mubarak
imposed a similar state of emergency for 20 years, before being ousted
in 2011 by the "Arab Spring." Al Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and
Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• Terror bombing of Coptic Christian church in Cairo Egypt kills 25 (12-Dec-2016)
  
  
• ISIS forces hundreds of Christians to flee Egypt's North Sinai (28-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Egypt in shock over bloody massacre of Coptic Christians (11-Oct-2011)
  
  
• Criticism of Egypt's armed forces intensifies after 'Black Sunday' Copt massacre (12-Oct-2011)
  
  
• Muslim vs Coptic Christian clashes in Egypt grow in intensity (08-Apr-2013)
  

****
**** US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula
****


Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force in March (AFP)

The US Pacific Command announced on Saturday that the USS Carl Vinson
aircraft carrier strike force has left Singapore and is headed for the
Korean peninsula. It was diverted from previous plans for carrier
exercises and port visits in Australia.

This action takes on special significance because it appears to be
similar to the action taken last week in the Mediterranean Sea just
before the US Navy launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles to attack
targets in Syria, following the Syrian regime's use of Sarin gas, a
forbidden WMD (weapon of mass destruction).

North Korea has been testing ballistic missile systems and nuclear
weapons, a WMD forbidden to North Korea by UN Security Council
resolutions. Experts warn that North Korea is getting closer to
deploying a nuclear-tipped rocket capable of reaching the United
States mainland, as well as Japan, South Korea, Australia and China.
Thus there is speculation, completely unconfirmed, that President
Donald Trump might order a missile strike on North Korea's ballistic
missile and nuclear weapons development facilities, in order to at
least delay further development. According to one military analyst:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It's a well-timed move. We obviously don't have the
> ability to strike their nuclear facilities, they are buried deep
> underground, but we can go after the missiles themselves while
> they are fueling. It's a signal to the North Koreans that we will,
> for the time being, have the ability to attack those
> facilities."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Carl Vinson Strike Group has massive striking power and has the
capability to intercept ballistic missiles. The group includes the
Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), embarked
Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 2, Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile
destroyers USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG
112), and Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain
(CG 57).

President Trump has been pressuring China to try to force North Korea
to give up its nuclear and ballistic missile development program, and
has recently said that "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we
will."

When Trump met last week with China's president Xi Jinping, North
Korea was a major topic of discussion between the two leaders, but
reports indicate that that no agreement was reached on how to end the
threat from North Korea.

Instead, there was nothing but posturing and impossible demands.
Trump demands that China prevent North Korea's further missile and
nuclear development. China has agreed to implement the sanctions
demanded by the UN Security Council, and most recently says that it
has stopped importing coal from North Korea. However, there are some
reports that North Korea is looking for other markets in which to sell
its coal, and Russia may be one of them. At any rate, there really is
nothing realistic that China can do, short of military action, to stop
North Korea's missile and nuclear development.

China demands that the US agree to a "dual suspension" on the Korean
peninsula, cancelling its joint military drills with South Korea in
return for a moratorium on North Korean testing, and then promising to
negotiate a peace treaty with North Korea. The US has repeatedly been
duped by North Korea when entering such agreements, and there is no
chance that Trump will allow the US to be duped again. So China's
demands are also completely unrealistic.

So this brings us to the obvious question: Why is the Carl Vinson
strike group heading for the Korean peninsula, and what has it been
ordered to do when it gets there? Is it just going to sit there and
wait for something to happen, and leave in a few weeks having
accomplished nothing, allowing North Korea to continue developing
nuclear-tipped rockets capable of hitting the US mainland? Or is some
military action planned, with the intention of fulfilling Trump's
promise, "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will"?

One way or another, we'll probably have an answer within a few days.
Navy Times and News Corp (Australia) and BBC and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)


Related Articles

• Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role (09-Apr-2017)
  

****
**** South Korean anxiety over North Korea and anger at China grow over THAAD deployment
****

The US has begun deployment in South Korea of the Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) an advanced anti-missile system that can
blast incoming missiles out of the sky.

The stated purpose of the deployment would be to protect South Korea
from a North Korean ballistic missile attack. However, China has
expressed increasing fury because the system has advanced radar
capabilities that would provide early warning for a Chinese missile
attack on the United States.

China's fury has taken the form of economic sanctions. China has
banned tour groups from visiting China, has removed popular South
Korean TV dramas from the internet, and has forced the closure of 75
South Korean Lotte stores in China, resulting in $179 million in
losses.

A web site reader living in Seoul has written to me to describe the
devastating impact of the actions by China and North Korea:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"China's economic boycott of Korea over THAAD has hit
> the country like a ton bricks. I went to the flagship Lotte
> department store today, and it was practically empty. I have
> friends who own their own businesses, and they tell me they are
> facing bankruptcy because of the loss of Chinese customers. The
> thing is, Koreans, by and large, hate the Chinese. This embargo is
> only heightening the hatred. I think this embargo has finally
> woken people up to the fact that China is an existential threat to
> Korea. ...
>
> Tonight, for the first time in my life, Koreans told me they were
> afraid that war was imminent. I have lived in Asia (on and off)
> since the 1970s, and I have never heard a Korean say anything like
> that. Tonight, someone in my office told me that she was scheduled
> to to visit America in May, but that she was afraid a war would
> break out before she had a chance to leave. Leaving the office
> tonight, a co-worker told me she was scared. I was stunned. This
> can't bode well.
>
> If this is the end, oh well. I just hope I die instantly. I'm
> worried I won't be killed in the first artillery barrage. As
> densely packed as Seoul is, the death toll, the carnage, will be
> beyond belief. ...
>
> I can't believe how much the mood here has flipped. The word
> 'changed' would be inappropriate. Things are different now. I feel
> sick."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

I guess we can all hope that if we have to die that we die instantly.

This is an appropriate time to repeat what I've written many times in
the past. A lot of people believe some variation of "X and Y won't go
to war, because it's bad for business." Actually, the opposite is
true, as we're seeing in the case of Lotte. If two countries have a
business relationship, then the business relationship won't prevent
war, but instead will turn into one more weapon of war. CBS News

Related Articles

• China promises retaliation over surprise deployment of THAAD in South Korea (08-Mar-2017)
  
  
• America's likely response to N. Korean test: THAAD, Aegis missile defense systems (14-Feb-2017)
  
  
• China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system (10-Aug-2016)
  
  
• China, Russia vociferously object to South Korea's THAAD missile system deployment (28-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, North Sinai, Coptic Christians,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai, Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Egypt, chapel of St Peter and St Paul, El-Botroseya,
Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,
North Korea, South Korea, China, Xi Jinping, Japan, Australia,
US Pacific Command, Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force,
South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Lotte

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Apr-17 World View -- India forced to delay Kashmir elections after large surge in violence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India forced to delay Kashmir elections after large surge in violence
  
• Hindu activists push for ban on cow slaughter across India
  
• Why is a US carrier group strike force going to the Korean peninsula?
  

****
**** India forced to delay Kashmir elections after large surge in violence
****


A burned out bus following an attack by separatists on Sunday (PTI)

India has been forced to delay a second round of elections in Kashmir,
scheduled for Wednesday, after the first round of elections in Sunday
sparked a large surge on Sunday by separatists.

The large surge in violence left eight people dead and injured more
than 100. Two middle schools, designated as polling stations, were
burnt down on Sunday night.

Separatists had called for a boycott of the election, and in the city
Srinagar were using barbed wire and burnt tires to block the roads, to
prevent voters from reaching the polling stations. Hundreds of youth
threw stones and petrol bombs at security forces, who wore helmets
and carried batons to subdue the protesters. However, the security
forces were forced to withdraw, after the boycott was almost total.
Government sources counted nearly 200 separate incidents of violence.

Although there have been periods of violence in Indian-controlled
Kashmir in the past, the new round of violence is significantly
different according to several measures:

• The level of violence is greater.
  
• The violence has spread from the cities to the rural areas.
  
• Voter turnout of 7% is the lowest in Srinagar in three
  decades.

The low voter turnout is particularly significant. In previous
elections, even when there was some violence, voter turnout was
25-40%, and that was considered to be a sign that, despite the
separatist protests, most people supported the government. The low
voter turnout is a major change that is being blamed on the Election
Commission (EC), which finally was forced to reschedule the second
round of elections from Wednesday to May 25, handing a victory to the
separatists.

As I wrote in my detailed analysis

earlier in the month, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a
fairly standard template.

India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857
Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists,
and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th
century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of
the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.

The survivors of a generational crisis war are so traumatized that
they spend their lives doing everything possible to keep it from
happening again. However, younger generations growing up after the
war have no such concerns, and when the generations of survivors
retire and die, then a new generational crisis war emerges among the
younger generations.

The surging violence in Kashmir is extremely dangerous, and spread and
spiral into something much larger during the hot summer. BBC and New Delhi TV and First Post and India Times

Related Articles

• India-Pakistan clash threatened as Kashmir violence surges again (01-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured (14-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Hindu activists push for ban on cow slaughter across India
****

It's an old saying that Hindus and Muslims can't live together because
Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't eat cows. These
differences, which seem so odd to the Western mind, raise such
powerful emotions in both Muslims and Hindus that they played an
important role in both of the previous generational crisis wars, the
1857 Rebellion and the 1947 Partition War.

Now there's a new demand by Hindu nationalists to ban cow slaughter
across the country. Cow vigilantism has frequently triggered violence
between Hindus and Muslims in India, especially when Muslims kill cows
for meat, and preventing Muslims from eating beef appears to a major
part of the motivation for the proposed ban on cow slaughter.

However, opponents of the ban say that a ban on cow slaughter would be
bad for the cow, and that the end result is that cows would no longer
exist except in zoos. For that reason, opponents are demanding that
if the proposed ban is passed, then the government must budget money
to give to dairy farmers to protect the cow, and must provide an
adoption scheme for cattle that are past productive age or male.
First Post and Indian Express

Related Articles

• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** Why is a US carrier group strike force going to the Korean peninsula?
****

In yesterday's article,
I
described that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force left
Singapore and headed for the Korean peninsula, possibly for some
confrontation with North Korea, and I wondered what the objective was.
In particular, I wondered how long the strike force was going to
remain there.

A couple of readers have provided me with possible explanations. One
readers said that the Carl Vinson would have to remain only until the
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system could be fully
deployed in South Korea:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"But they're waiting for the next test launch of a
> potentially nuclear tipped missile by the North Korean's insane
> dictator. Then they'll shoot it out of the sky. A little target
> practice, shall we say. As they might say in Texas -- "pull!"
>
> See, the THAAD is just starting to be installed in South Korea,
> and obviously that takes some time, so it's not ready yet. ...
>
> [The carrier strike force is] equipped with the Aegis variant of
> functionality quite similar to THAAD - just sea based. I know a
> bit about this, since I used to work for the Navy supplier FMC
> (now BAE Systems), who makes the Rail Gun and the 5-inch/54
> caliber (Mk 45) lightweight gun.
>
> And it's a legitimate move to shoot down any such North Korean
> missile, even if it's just a test. How do we know whether or not
> it's just a test? Are we supposed to give it 10 minutes and see
> whether it's trajectory is aimed at LA? Better shoot it down, just
> in case. ... The carrier group serves as an interim THAAD until
> the full THAAD is installed and working. That will allow the
> Seoulians to sleep better at night (you said yourself that they're
> getting a bit nervous)."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Another reader pointed out that the birthday of the grandfather of the
current leader is fast approaching, and the leader might be planning a
major provocation on that date:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"15 April is Kim Il-Sung's birthday, and is a holiday
> in NK called "Day of the Sun" ("Il-Sung" in Korean means "become
> the Sun.") The North Koreans have a history of staging
> provocations (missile and nuclear tests) so it's likely the Vinson
> battle group will be on hand just in case Kim Jong-Un gets
> stroppy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Related Articles

• US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula (10-Apr-2017)
  
  
• North Korea threatens new artillery strikes on Yeonpyeong Island (18-Dec-2010)
  
  
• North Korea denies sinking South Korean warship Cheonan (18-Apr-2010)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Srinagar,
Muslims, Hindus, cow vigilantism,
North Korea, Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force,
South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Kim Il-sung

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Apr-17 World View -- Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to the ground

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to the ground
  
• The Le Touquet treaty, which moves Britain's border into France, will be reconsidered
  

****
**** Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to the ground
****


Grande-Synthe refugee camp in Dunkirk, France, burnt to the ground Monday night (Telegraph)

Huge fires burned to the ground a Dunkirk migrant camp in northern
France, populated by 1,600 refugees who were there in the camp in the
hope of reaching Britain, usually by sneaking onto trucks and ferries
crossing the English Channel.

The camp had been built by Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without
Borders), including hundreds of wooden huts. The camp opened in March
2016 as the first camp in France to meet international humanitarian
standards, where migrant families could live in relatively dignified
conditions in heated wooden cabins. However, conditions deteriorated
within a few months as hundreds more migrants arrived at the camp.
Tensions were high in the camp because the number of people living
there far exceeded the capacity of the camp, which was more like 700.

The population of the camp was originally Iraqi and Kurdish migrants.
But when migrant camp known as "The Jungle" in nearby Calais was
closed down in October of last year, a large number of the 7,000
migrants that had been housed there moved to the Dunkirk camp, which
has been called "the new jungle." Many of these new arrivals were
afghans who did not get along with the Iraqis and Kurds, resulting in
tensions that sometimes led to violence.

The first fire broke out early Monday evening, following fighting
between groups of migrants of different nationalities. Some 600
migrants took part in the fighting. The fights continued late into
the night, and several hours later, additional fires burned down
almost all of the wooden huts, leaving nothing behind but ashes.
According to French officials, multiple fires must have been set on
purpose.

The migrants had been evacuated and rehoused in gymnasiums that had
been empty and were converted into temporary emergency shelter in the
Dunkirk suburb of Grande-Synthe. However, those can only accommodate
900 people. Some migrants say that they'll return to Calais and set
up makeshift camps.

Officials are unable to say how long the migrants will stay in the
gymnasiums, or what will happen to them next. With the warm weather
of summer, a new flood of migrants is expected. RFI and Independent (London) and New Statesman

Related Articles

• Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished (28-Oct-2016)
  
  
• France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais (22-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Bulldozers bury the 'Jungle' refugee camp in Calais France (02-Mar-2016)
  

****
**** The Le Touquet treaty, which moves Britain's border into France, will be reconsidered
****

The Le Touquet Treaty of 2003 was designed to allow France and Britain
each to perform its border checks in the other country, as if there
were land borders between the two countries, rather than just a sea
border.

Without this treaty, a person traveling by ferry from France to
Britain would be allowed to travel, and would only get an immigration
check once he arrived in Britain. But under the treaty, Britain can
perform immigration checks while the traveler is still in France, and
block the person from traveling to Britain.

Many people blame the existence of the refugee camps in Calais and
Dunkirk on the Le Touquet Treaty. According to their reasoning, if
migrants could simply get on a ferry to Britain, then the refugee
camps would be in Dover rather than in Calais or Dunkirk.

When Britain passed the "Brexit referendum" on June 23 of last year,
calling for Britain to leave the European Union, some French officials
immediately began calling for an end to the Le Touquet treaty.

In the months that followed, French and British reaffirmed their
commitment to the treaty. However, that may not continue. In the
upcoming French presidential election, all three leading candidates in
the French presidential election are promising to withdraw from this
treaty. Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London - 30-Aug-2016) and Economist and PDF: Text of 2003 Le Touquet Treaty

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Dunkirk, Grande-Synthe refugee camp,
Calais, Britain, English Channel, Iraq, Kurds, Afghanistan,
Le Touquet Treaty, Brexit

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Apr-17 World View -- Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president
  
• Ahmadinejad waits for the appearance of the Mahdi
  

****
**** Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president
****


Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gives a 'V for Victory' sign after registering on Wednesday to run for president

Iran's colorful former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had already
served two consecutive terms, from 2005-2013, on Wednesday astonished
people both inside and outside of Iran by filling out and submitting
registration forms for the May 19 presidential election.

Ahmadinejad reversed an earlier decision not to run. In September of
last year, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said he would
not find it advisable for Ahmadinejad to seek a comeback to politics
"both for his own and the country’s good." At the time, Ahmadinejad
said that he would not run, but now he's changed his mind.

After filling out the registration forms on Wednesday, he made a "V
for Victory" sign and said, "The Leader advised me not to participate
in the elections, and I accepted. His advice, however, shouldn’t be
taken to mean that I’m banned."

There are three major categories of Iranian politicians, with
Ahmadinejad among the most hardline extreme, the "principlists," who
insist on adhering to the extreme "principles" of the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution. They are mostly in the old geezer generation of
survivors of the Revolution. They impose strict social laws, such as
requiring headscarves, forbidding unrelated male-female couples in
public, no street music in public, and so forth.

Iran's current president, Hassan Rouhani, is in the middle category
called the "moderates" or "pragmatists," who are often as hardline as
the principlists, but who are in favor of gradual reforms. (The
"reformists" are in the younger generations, and favor immediate
reforms.)

So it would seem that the major campaign battle will be the
principlist Ahmadinejad and the moderate Rouhani. But the Supreme
Leader, who is the principlist-in-chief, does not like Ahmadinejad,
and has put forth his own principlist candidate, Ebrahim Raisi. And
since Khamenei controls the Guardian Council, which has the final say
on who's allowed to run, it's expected that Khamenei will see to it
that Ahmadinejad is disqualified.

But wait! This is actually even more bizarre than it seems so far.

Ahmadinejad has made a statement that he is not really planning to run
for president, and has implied that the only reason that he's
registering to run is to support his former vice president Hamid
Baghaei.

In fact, Ahmadinejad put on a spectacular show on Wednesday.
Ahmadinejad walked Baghaei through the registration process,
ostensibly with no other purpose. But as soon as Baghaei registered,
Ahmadinejad started to leave, but then suddenly turned around, and
pulled out his own registration documents in front of a melee of
shouting journalists and stunned officials.

So how does this help Ahmadinejad's deputy Baghaei run for office? Because
Khamenei would find an excuse to disqualify Baghaei, in order to get
his own candidate Raisi to win. But with Ahmadinejad running,
Khamenei would have to disqualify both Ahmadinejad and Baghaei, and
that would apparently be too politically difficult.

And to top it off, another of Ahmadinejad's close allies, Esfandiar
Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to vote. So Khamenei would have to
disqualify Ahmadinejad and two of Ahmadinejad's allies.

When Ahmadinejad was first elected in 2005, he and Khamenei got along
well. But even principlists have policy differences, and by the time
of Ahmadinejad's reelection in 2009, Khamenei refused to give Ahmadinejad
the perfunctory kiss on the cheek. During Ahmadinejad's second term,
Khamenei repeatedly humiliated Ahmadinejad, and Ahmadinejad adopted
policies with the partial objective of infuriating Khamenei. There's
little doubt that what Ahmadinejad did on Wednesday will be
particularly infuriating to Khamenei. Tehran Times and AP

Related Articles

• Split between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners widens (13-Sep-2010)
  
  
• As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious (06-Feb-2016)
  
  
• Iran's elections won by 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani (16-Jun-2013)
  

****
**** Ahmadinejad waits for the appearance of the Mahdi
****

As mentioned above, a top aide and close of friend of Ahmadinejad,
Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to run for president.

In 2009 Khamenei accused Mashaei and other Ahmadinejad aides of being
sorcerers, of using "supernatural powers," and of being "magicians"
and invoking djinns (spirits).

The charges of sorcery are related to the devout belief, held by
Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief
that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to
save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian
belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the
Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve
complete enlightenment. Ahmadinejad disobeyed Supreme Leader Khamenei
in several matters, which is considered to be equivalent to disobeying
God. But Ahmadinejad was just paving the way for the return of the
Hidden Imam, and was using his claim that the Hidden Imam's return is
imminent as a justification for disobeying Khamenei. Thus, the
charges of sorcery.

It's possible that the belief in the Mahdi is related to some of
Ahmadinejad's conspiracy theories.

Probably the most famous of his conspiracy theories is that the
Holocaust never occurred, but was put forth by a conspiracy of
Zionists.

On other occasions, he said that Osama bin Laden and George W. Bush
were friends, and that the West had engineered HIV aids.

That was far-fetched enough, but even more far-fetched was his claim
in 2012 that Western technology was preventing the rain from falling
in Iran:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Today our country is moving towards drought, which is
> partly unintentional due to industry and partly intentional, as a
> result of the enemy destroying the clouds moving towards our
> country and this is a war that Iran is going to overcome.
>
> I feel that the world arrogance and colonization, by using their
> technologies, are affecting the environmental situation in
> Iran."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In 2007, Ahmadinejad gave a speech at Columbia University in New York,
and made this claim: "In Iran we don't have homosexuals like in your
country. In Iran we do not have this phenomenon. I do not know who
has told you we have it." He drew hysterical laughter.

As I've been writing for many years, Iran is basically a schizophrenic
nation. Its principlist top leadership, starting with the supreme
leader, are survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, an
extremely bloody civil war. Like generational crisis war survivors in
any country, these leaders imposed austere rules and institutions
designed to prevent another bloody civil war, and this has led them to
adopt a harsh anti-Western attitude. But the generations born after
the crisis war have no such motivation, and Iran's younger generations
are, in fact, reformists and generally pro-Western and have no
particular desire to see Israel pushed into the sea.

In the late 1990s, college students in these younger generations
started holding pro-Western and pro-American protests, during Iran's
generational Awakening era. Khamenei and the Iran hardliners brutally
suppressed those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today,
those students are in their 30s, and have risen to positions of power,
ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies off.
They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi
Arabia to be an existential threat. This is one of several reasons
why I've been saying for years that, in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, Iran will be an ally of the United States,
along with Russia and India, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslim countries. Newsweek and Al Monitor (15-Mar)

Related Articles

• Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent (07-May-2011)
  
  
• Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation (23-May-2013)
  
  
• Generation gap splits Iran's government (30-Aug-2010)
  
  
• Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue (09-Nov-2009)
  
  
• A generational explanation of Iran's political crisis (23-Jun-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei,
Hassan Rouhani, Ebrahim Raisi, Hamid Baghaei,
Mahdaviat, Mahdi, 12'th Imam, Hidden Imam, Maitreya

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday
  
• Japan's Shinzo Abe: N. Korea may be able to attack Japan with Sarin gas missile
  
• China's tripwires for invading North Korea
  

****
**** North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday
****


People in Seoul, South Korea, watch a TV news program showing a file image of the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier on Wednesday (AP)

In North Korea, Saturday April 15 is called "The Day of the Sun."
It's the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder, Kim
Il-Sung, whose name means "Sun of the Nation."

Kim Il-Sung was the grandfather of the current child dictator,
Kim Jong-un. Kim likes to do provocative things on a regular basis,
and particular likes to do something spectacular on April 15.

Japan's fifth nuclear test was conducted on Sept. 9, 2016. According
to a new report from the North Korea monitoring group 38North, North
Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site is "primed and ready," based on
satellite imagery captured two days ago. This suggests that North
Korea's sixth nuclear test may occur on Saturday, or in the near
future. Other possible dates in the near future are April 25, the
85th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army, or May
9, the date of South Korea's presidential election.

But a lot of analysts will be very surprised if North Korea doesn't
perform a new nuclear test, possibly along with some new ballistic
missile tests, some time in the next month.

If Kim Jong-un does do something provocative and spectacular, many
people are wondering how the United States will respond, particularly
since President Donald Trump ordered the missile strike in Syria,
after Syria's government killed hundreds of people with a Sarin gas
attack two ago, and after Trump ordered the Carl Vinson aircraft
carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula.

On Thursday, Trump wrote a tweet that he believes China will be able
to rein in the North. "I have great confidence that China will
properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the
U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A." 38 North and Pravda (Moscow) and Washington Post

Related Articles

• South Korea announces 'Massive Punishment and Retaliation' and decapitation for N. Korea (12-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Why is a US carrier group strike force going to the Korean peninsula? (11-Apr-2017)
  
  
• North Korea threatens new artillery strikes on Yeonpyeong Island (18-Dec-2010)
  
  
• North Korea denies sinking South Korean warship Cheonan (18-Apr-2010)
  

****
**** Japan's Shinzo Abe: N. Korea may be able to attack Japan with Sarin gas missile
****

Japan, which is the only country in the world to have been hit by a
nuclear weapon, is particularly concerned about being attacked by a
North Korean nuclear weapon. Tensions have been particularly raised
by North Korea's repeated tests of ballistic missiles launched in the
direction of Japan. None of the tests has struck Japanese soil, but
some have reached the Sea of Japan.

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party
has been advocating a proposal to develop the capability to directly
attack North Korean military bases. Japan is still bound by a post
World War II pacifist constitution that permits military action only
for defensive purposes, and so Abe emphasized that Japan has no plan
to acquire such powerful weapons and would never launch a pre-emptive
strike against any country.

However, Abe pointed out that North Korea could attack Japan with
Sarin gas:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a possibility that North Korea has the
> ability to hit (Japan) with a ballistic missile carrying sarin in
> its warhead."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Abe pointed to the Syria's sarin gas attack last week, where "nearly
100 innocent people, including children and babies, were victimized."

Just as Japan was the target of a nuclear weapon, Japan has also been
the object of a sarin gas attack. Members of a Japanese doomsday cult
killed 12 people and made thousands ill in 1995 in simultaneous
attacks with sarin nerve gas on five Tokyo rush-hour subway trains.

Concerns have been growing about North Korea’s chemical weapons
capabilities since Kim Jong-un's estranged half brother, Kim Jong-nam,
was killed with VX nerve agent in Malaysia in February.

According to Yoshihide Suga, Abe’s top aide, "North Korea is thought
to maintain multiple facilities that are capable of producing chemical
weapons and already hold a sizable amount of chemical weapons."

The South Korean Defense Ministry has estimated that Pyongyang, which
reportedly started producing chemical weapons in the 1980s, now owns
2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, including the lethal nerve
agents sarin and VX. Japan Times and Reuters

Related Articles

• Japan's largest warship will train with US Navy in the South China Sea (14-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan (05-May-2014)
  
  
• China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense' (18-Jul-2015)
  

****
**** China's tripwires for invading North Korea
****

In 1961, China and North Korea sign a mutual defense treaty that
specifies that if one of the parties comes under armed attack, the
other should render immediate assistance, including military support.

It's this umbrella of protection that has allowed North Korea to make
increasingly provocative acts, knowing that China is required by
treaty to protect it. In 2010, North Korea launched a missile attack
on the South Korean warship Cheonan, killing 46 people, and then North
Korea shelled South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South
Koreans. These were both clearly acts of war, but China staunchly
defended North Korea, and South Korea was unable to retaliate.

However, it's been clear that China has been running out of patience
with North Korea's renegade leader Kim Jong-un, who has been
conducting nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests that violations
of international law and are strongly opposed by China. So analysts
are wondering under what circumstances China would invade North Korea,
either to defend it against South Korea and the US, or to take control
of North Korea for its own purposes.

An analysis by the Hong Kong based South China Morning Post
suggests that China is no longer obliged to defend North Korea
from military attack under the 1961 treaty, since North
Korea has repeatedly violated the treaty.

The treaty requires both nations to safeguard peace and security, and
for China, North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons in violation
of the United Nations treaty on non-proliferation could amount to a
breach of their pact, leaving Beijing with no obligation to lend a
hand.

According to Li Jie, a retired Chinese naval colonel:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It’s hard to say how China would assist North Korea
> militarily in case of war, since North Korea is developing nuclear
> weapons, an act that might have already breached the treaty
> between the two nations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A different analysis in Chinese state sponsored Global Times
acknowledges that North Korea's development of nuclear weapons
is intolerable to the United States, and notes that Trump
has warned that if China doesn't take care of North Korea's
nuclear weapons, then the US will.

According to the analysis, China would be willing to impose even
harsher sanctions on North Korea, including the devastating sanction
of ending oil imports, if China continues its illegal testing:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If Pyongyang conducts its sixth nuclear test in the
> near future, the possibility of US military action against it will
> be higher than ever. Not only is Washington brimming with
> confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria,
> but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honors his
> promises.
>
> Now the Trump team seems to have decided to solve the North Korean
> nuclear crisis. As the discussion runs deeper, a situation of
> no-solution will not be accepted.
>
> A new nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile test,
> if conducted by Pyongyang at this time, will be a slap in the face
> of the US government and will intensify the confrontation between
> North Korea and the US.
>
> Presumably Beijing will react strongly to Pyongyang's new nuclear
> actions. China will not remain indifferent to Pyongyang's
> aggravating violation of the UN Security Council (UNSC)
> resolution.
>
> More and more Chinese support the view that the government should
> enhance sanctions over Pyongyang's nuclear activities. If the
> North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese
> society will be willing to see the UNSC adopt severe restrictive
> measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil
> imports to the North. Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program is
> intended for securing the regime, however, it is reaching a
> tipping point. Pyongyang hopes its gamble will work, but all signs
> point to the opposite direction.
>
> The US is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting
> further nuclear tests. It doesn't plan to co-exist with a
> nuclear-armed Pyongyang."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A third analysis was performed by KGS Nightwatch by examining some
Chinese government and military newsletters that have addressed North
Korea's nuclear weapons development in recent days. This analysis
addresses a different question: Under what circumstances would
China intervene militarily in North Korea. There are four
tripwires listed in the analysis:

• Nuclear pollution. China will tolerate no pollution in
  northeastern China from North Korean nuclear activity. China has
  enormous investments to develop northeastern China, and any nuclear
  pollution for a North Korean nuclear test would be cause for military
  action. In the worst case scenario, there may be something similar to
  Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster or the Soviet Union's Chernobyl
  nuclear disaster, both of which cause massive nuclear pollution.
  
  
• North Korean refugees. China will not allow North Korean
  refugees to enter China in the event of internal turmoil in North
  Korea. The Chinese have repeatedly indicated that they will not
  support a North Korean refugee population on Chinese soil. In a
  crisis, the People's Liberation Army would prevent border crossings
  and would supervise large safe zones inside North Korea.
  
  
• Government. China will not tolerate a government in
  Pyongyang that is hostile to China, in a situation where the Kim
  administration has collapsed, been murdered or abdicated.
  
  
• US military. The US must not push its forces to the Yalu
  River, which forms the border between China and North Korea. This
  presumes that American-led forces would move into North Korea to
  prevent the spread of chaos, disease and refugees from a North Korean
  collapse or defeat in a war. This seems to suggest that China might
  not oppose US soldiers as far north as the capital city Pyongyang to
  help stabilize North Korea. China might also permit South Korean
  soldiers on the Yalu River.

South Korea's media reported earlier this week that the Chinese army
has deployed about 150,000 troops in two groups to northeastern China
near the Yalu River, "to prepare for unforeseen circumstances," in
view of the arrival of the Carl Vinson strike force.

However, China has denied deploying these troops.

There's a surreal quality of fantasy about these reports of Chinese
military actions. China is planning this or that military action with
no fear of losses or of international retribution, as if the Chinese
were invincible. And whenever I read about China's military plans
about anything, I get the feeling of invincibility, as if they're
saying, "All we want is peace and stability, so just do as we command
you to do and there will always be peace and stability; and if you
don't, then we'll just kill you, and we'll get peace and stability
that way."

So let's make it clear. Any of the military actions discussed in this
article, even a "small" military action, will spiral into something
bigger in this generational Crisis era, and will spiral further into a
world war within weeks or at most a few months. Nobody is invicible
here, and China would be worse off than many, because it would be
fighting both a civil war and an external war. I've estimated that a
world war will kill 3-4 billion people from nuclear weapons, ground
war, disease and starvation, leaving 3-4 billion traumatized people
behind to hold peace conferences and rebuild the world. South China Monring Post (Hong Kong) and Global Times (Beijing) and KGS Nightwatch and Chosun (South Korea) (Trans) and Global Times (Beijing)

Related Articles

• China's South China Sea policy related to food security in times of war (06-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role (09-Apr-2017)
  
  
• US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula (10-Apr-2017)
  
  
• New book, 'Unhappy China,' stokes Chinese nationalism and anti-Americanism. (12-Apr-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Day of the Sun, Kim Il-Sung,
Kim Jong-un, 38 North, Punggye-ri, Carl Vinson carrier strike group,
Syria, Sarin gas, VX nerve agent, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Kim Jong-nam,
South Korea, China, Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

The boomers are a generation of idiots. Ever since they dismantled the MIC back in the 1970s, they have consistently rejected all opportunities to transform America into a Roman Empire/byzantine/Chinese empire/Mongol empire/spanish empire/napoleonic/german/japanese- esque style military state. The brilliant potential of Xers and Millies is being wasted by the generation of moronic boomers who throw this all away in favor of selfish hedonistic, globalistic, capitalistic decadence.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Assads actions are completely legitimate. Syria is a sovereign state and what it's government does within its own borders is of no concern to us.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-14-2017, 10:16 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > But ... China supplies the semiconductors used in the DPRK's
> missiles.

> This is a good cop bad cop game here.

> The (relatively speaking) good cops are the PRC and Russia,
> the bad cop is the DPRK. In the international public relations
> game, the DPRK (as well as other supposedly rogue states
> ... who get endless support from the PRC, Russia, or both)
> is a convenient place to outsource the baddest behavior. That way,
> deniability to the PRC and Russia is provided.

> "So sorry, we can do nothing about our crazy cousin" (high
> fives and giggles once off stage).

I believe that North Korea could purchase semiconductors from other
countries, such as Iran or Russia or Syria.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-14-2017, 11:35 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Assads actions are completely legitimate. Syria is a sovereign
> state and what it's government does within its own borders is of
> no concern to us.

The logic you're using is not valid. For example, what a person does
within his own home is not always legitimate. For example, he may not
take meth, he may not have sex with his daughter, and he may not
commit murder. These are all considered to be criminal actions, and
the perpetrator could be convicted of a crime and sent to jail for a
long time.

Similarly, al-Assad's actions are not at all legitimate, just because
his actions occur within his country's borders. Using Sarin gas on
innocent women and children and little babies, or on any people for
that matter, is the criminal action of a war criminal, and al-Assad
could be convicted of a war crime and sent to jail for a long time.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Apr-17 World View -- US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down
  
• Somalia's civil war and the Black Hawk Down incident
  

****
**** US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down
****


Al-Shabaab fighters

The US is sending dozens of troops to Somalia in order to provide
training to Somali forces fighting the al-Qaeda linked Islamist group
al-Shabaab.

This is the largest deployment of American troops to the Horn of
Africa since American troops were withdrawn in 1994, following the
disastrous Black Hawk down incident. In October 1993, a US operation
in Mogadishu ended in disaster when two Black Hawk helicopters were
shot down, leading to a 15-hour battle that killed hundreds of Somalis
and 18 Americans.

About 40 soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division, based in Fort
Campbell, Ky, have been sent to Somalia. They will not take part in
combat, but will focus on training the Somali army to bolster its
logistics capabilities. The Somali government had requested the
training, as its war against al-Qaeda based al-Shabaab has been far
from decisive. At the same time, the US military is increasing the
number of airstrikes against al-Shabaab.

The African Union troops include armies from Kenya and Uganda, but
these troops are scheduled to pull out in 2018. The purpose of the US
troops is to train the Somalis to fight al-Shabaab on their own, which
may or may not be successful. Stars and Stripes and AP and Foreign Policy

Related Articles

• Kenya gets mired in Somalia, and U.S. involvement expands in Ethiopia (29-Oct-2011)
  
  
• Somalia's Al-Shabaab claims responsibility for religion-based Kenya attack (23-Nov-2014)
  
  
• Minnesota link to Kenya shopping mall attack raises U.S. fears (23-Sep-2013)
  
  
• Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp (10-Feb-2017)
  

****
**** Somalia's civil war and the Black Hawk Down incident
****

Somalia's civil war ran from 1988 to 1994, but the stage was set
decades earlier by the rise of Mohamed Siad Barre, who seized power in
1969 and set up a brutal Marxist totalitarian dictatorship. Siad
tried to unify the local clans, but in the end the clans destroyed him
and his totalitarian state.

In 1977, next-door-neighbor Ethiopia was in chaos, at the start of a
full-scale generational crisis war with Eritrea. Siad tried to take
advantage of the chaos by attacking Ogaden, a large region of Ethiopia
on Somalia's border, populated mostly by Somalis. Siad had hoped to
get the backing of his pals in the Soviet Union, but they betrayed him
and sided with Ethiopia.

The result of Siad's abortive invasion was that hundreds of thousands
of Somali refugees from Ogaden poured across the border into Somalia,
destabilizing the country. These refugees joined with existing claims
to attack Siad's regime, with the intention of overthrowing it,
leading to full-scale civil war by 1988.

By 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and the war between Ethiopia and
Eritrea climaxed. However, Somalia's civil war continued with the
destruction of Somalia's crops, causing widespread famine and almost
total anarchy in Somalia. Siad was ousted and forced to flee the
country, leading to an even bloodier succession battle.

International aid agencies flew food into Somalia to ease the famine,
but the food was stolen by warring clan militias. In 1992, the United
Nations actively intervened, and sent a peacekeeping force of 35,000
troops in "Operation Restore Hope."

The situation continued to deteriorate, and in October 1993, elite
American troops launched a disastrous raid in the Somali capital
Mogadishu. Two American Black Hawk helicopters were shot down using
rocket-propelled grenades. Some of the survivors were rescued, but
two pilots were attacked by a mob of thousands of Somalis who hacked
them to death with machetes and dragged their mutilated bodies through
the streets as trophies. The result was a 15-hour battle that killed
hundreds of Somalis, as well as about 18 Americans and two UN
soldiers.

The Black Hawk down incident, also known as the Battle of Mogadishu,
had lasting effects on both sides. On the Somali side, the mob attack
and ensuing battle appears to be one of the climactic events of Somali
crisis civil war.

On the American side, Black Hawk down shocked the public, and was well
remembered in books and a major movie. It caused the US to withdraw
its forces from Somalia in 1994, and to be reluctant to intervene in
African crises since then. So, for example, the US stayed out of the
massive Rwanda massacre in 1994, which is probably just as well.

Today, as US troops return to Somalia, the country is in a
generational Awakening era, which means that a new generation of kids
has grown up hearing stories of the glorious adventures of their
fathers in shooting down the two Black Hawks and hacking the pilots'
bodies to death, and anxious to have the opportunity to do it again.
So there is absolutely no chance at all that the current government of
Somalia, with the help of US and African Union forces, will be able to
subdue al-Shabaab. History World and BBC and Independent (London - 3-Jan-1995)

Related Articles

• Heavy fighting along Eritrea-Ethiopia border raises fears of war (14-Jun-2016)
  
  
• The Somalia connection -- The 7/21 London subway bombers (01-Aug-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Somalia, Al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda,
Black Hawk Down, Battle of Mogadishu, 101st Airborne Division,
African Union, Kenya, Uganda, Mohamed Siad Barre, Ethiopia, Ogaden

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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Ragnarök_62]

(04-14-2017, 09:58 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 15-Apr-17 World View -- US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down
  
• Somalia's civil war and the Black Hawk Down incident
  

****
**** US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down
****


Al-Shabaab fighters

The US is sending dozens of troops to Somalia in order to provide
training to Somali forces fighting the al-Qaeda linked Islamist group
al-Shabaab.

This is the largest deployment of American troops to the Horn of
Africa ...

Oh,  I hear a calling to my red and  black aura here.







Ahhhhhaaaa. such a cosmic experience man.  It never ends.   Humans killing til to the ends. So, it goes, Syria goes to Anarchy, and thusly, Somalia, the ultimate metaphor.

Hahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahah.  Another wound in the empire's flesh.  Stupid "humanitarian" interventions in Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.   Now,  Donald, Drumphenstufpher goes forth to the bait, to be consumed in  the Mideast Blackhole, ahhhh yeahhh, yea, man, yea, THC Uber alles, Rags, opts out of the Imperial consorts, yeah, man, a true child of the 1960's knows the way out.   Mind altering chemicals is the true way, for it's written that anyone can be sovereign , given the key of the ultimate, chemicals, man, yeah, "Better Living Though Chemistry". DOW chemical.  Yeah, just do it, man. Turn On [to chemicals], Tune in Samsara Blues Experiment/yeah....... hmmmmm..... C2H50H and THC,.......    fuck the MIC......    I'm a useless hunk of biomass wrt MIC.......    Hahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahah.    and.... fuck yeah, opt out.   Ooooh yeah, Rags doesn't give a flying fuck about Mideast borders drawn by WWI powers from the Ottoman Empire.  That's why theirs fighting...    US out of MIdeast, US go for energy independence.  Fuck NATO, UN, "One World Order:",

hahahahahahahahahah. I bet Syria will be the next "failed state".  Yehahahahahahahaahahahahah...........
Wow, man.  Smokie da pipe yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa..................