Generational Dynamics World View

[Ragnarök_62]

(03-29-2017, 12:36 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-28-2017, 11:43 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   And... So, John, here's why I'm a nationalist: Have you ever
>   considered that globalism has totally ruined the lives of lots of
>   Americans?  As some may recall, I lost my job to some stupid
>   H1-B. I think a better way of expressing the drivers of
>   nationalism are resentment towards elites, my own economic
>   distress caused by globalism.  Nationalism is the solution to
>   that. It's not perfect, but the only way I see to address said
>   resentments. In fact, I'd like the US to become an economic
>   autarky. The US has a sufficient array of technology and natural
>   resources to go that way. The way I see it, is that the elites
>   would suffer greatly from autarky. It goes like this John, they
>   fucked me over and I want revenge and a chance at something
>   better. Face it, if you're a prole, the current arrangement has
>   lots of better outcomes.  And... so I say again, shut down the
>   MIC! I really don't give a shit if the shipping lanes are not
>   defended by my tax dollars. If the exporting nations want to send
>   their crap here, let THEM PAY, and if not, just let the whole
>   rotten system collapse.

>   Fuck the MIC, fuck the oligarchies who benefit from my tax dollars
>   going to defend THEIR shipping lanes. If said oligarchies want to
>   import crap, LET THEM PAY, I want nothing of it. In fact, I opt
>   out as much as I can to further the cause of collapse.  The US is
>   just like the Soviet Union. The elites serve only themselves,
>   period.  So.. I think elite overreach is the proximate cause of
>   nationalism/xenophobia.

What's MIC?

I understand your feelings, and I even share some of them, though not
with your vitriolic fervor, and even though one commenter once called
me a "globalist scumbag."

What I'm saying is that your feelings are becoming increasingly
common, especially among younger generations, and that nationalism and
xenophobia are both occurring in nations around the world in this
generational Crisis era, that these feelings can't be stopped, and
that they're going to lead to a world war.

As Kinser79 mentioned the MIC = military industrial complex.  As you mentioned, the term originated in Ike's farewell address. I picked it up in the 1970's actually from the anti war movement, FWIW. (I had a cousin who served in 'Nam. ) I think another influence I had as a kid is that all of my paternal cousins are Boomers. That means I'm pretty much used to "Boomer Think". I rather doubt you'll find a post I've written that disses Boomers.

Vitriolic fervor?  Uh, I thought that was a Boomer thingie.   Dunno, but I'm one of addled cuspers or something.

As for nationalism/xenophobia, there's another thing that mentions that.  Robert Prector , Elliot wave guy also mentions it.  I do think it wise to consider the forces that lead to said nationalism/xenophobia.  If you take a look back over the 3T, neoliberalism and it's attendant opening of borders/markets/sleazy financial rackets over time becomes more dysfunctional, robs those in lower economic classes of purchasing power. At some point, the whole rotten edifice collapses in a smoldering heap of unpayable debt, widespread resentments from getting ripped off by the rentier class, demand destruction, and dysfunctional government. So... yes, you could well be correct in your assessment of the social forces released from the above.

Here's the writeup, if you're interested : http://www.socionomics.net/2011/04/social-mood/

Globalist scumbag:  Did this person present a cogent POV? Usually, ad homs mean that person has basically lost the argument right then, and there.  NB:  Yeah, I called you a "butter ball", but that's just me being cute.   You see, I'm a male and an *INTP [the MBTI definition of "nerd". It's not a smackdown or anything.

*INTP : https://www.16personalities.com/intp-personality

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Mar-17 World View -- With Arab world in chaos, Arab League summit displays lack of leadership and influence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• With Arab world in chaos, Arab League summit displays lack of leadership and influence
  
• Arab League plays it safe by only condemning Israel and terrorism
  

****
**** With Arab world in chaos, Arab League summit displays lack of leadership and influence
****


Arab League summit meeting in Jordan on Wednesday (Arab News)

The Arab League used to be considered one of the most influential
organizations in the world, representing the oil-rich nations of the
Mideast, controlling many of the world's most important trade routes.
But that's not true anymore, since the "Arab Spring" of 2011, which
was triggered by the death of a Tunisian food vendor, resulting in
violent protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and then in Libya, and
eventually spreading to almost every Arab country. Today, the entire
Arab World seems to be collapsing in chaos, and the Arab League can do
nothing but sit back, watch, and pray to Allah for deliverance.

Ironically, one of the last influential acts by the Arab League that
the world paid attention to was unanimous approval in March 2011 of a
request for Western nations to intervene in Libya and set up at no-fly
zone. The violent protests in Libya had become a bloodbath that had
spread from Benghazi and Tobruk in the east to Tripoli in the west.
Muammar Gaddafi declared war on the protesters. He threatened to
shoot to kill protesters, and said he would crush any enemy. By
April, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Libya were pouring into
neighboring countries, and thousands were crossing the Mediterranean
to reach Italy. The Arab League asked the West to intervene, as
Gaddafi was threatening a bloody massacre in several cities,
especially Benghazi.

The West finally did intervene, but what that incident proved most of
all was that the Arab League couldn't solve its own problems, and
that's become apparent today, where the fallout from the Arab Spring
has not only paralyzed the Arab League, it's gone further and split
the League into factions.

The worst split has come out of the war in Syria. The civil war in
Syria was caused by president Bashar al-Assad when he unleashed his
army and air force against peaceful protesters in 2011. Things really
turned around in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive
military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in
Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children
Palestinians. Thousands of young Sunni jihadists from 80 countries
around the world traveled to Syria to fight al-Assad, and they formed
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Saudi Arabia supported the so-called "moderate rebels" in Syria
fighting al-Assad, while Iran stepped in, along with its Shia puppet
militia Hezbollah from Lebanon, to fight on the side of al-Assad.
Iran also increased its support to the Houthi Shias in Yemen, leading
to a successful Houthi anti-government coup in Sanaa, Yemen's capital
city, in 2014.

This led Iran to brag that it was now in control of four Arab capitals
-- Beirut Lebanon, Sanaa Yemen, Baghdad Iraq, and Damascus Syria.

At the same time that this occurred, President Barack Obama appears to
have withdrawn the United States leadership from the Mideast,
particularly in Syria and Iraq, apparently leaving Iran and Russia as
the strongest powers. In addition, President Obama pushed the Iran
nuclear deal, which removed sanctions and greatly improved Iran's
prestige in the Mideast.

Today, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries are placing their hopes
in President Donald Trump, who they hope will turn against Iran and
more strongly support Saudi Arabia. However, even that hope further
makes the point that the Arab League is unable to accomplish anything
on its own, without the help of the West, especially the United
States.

As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that
Iran and the West will be allies in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, and that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be pitted against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In
the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war,
pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic
groups against each other. These predictions would suggest that
improved friendly relations between the US and Saudi Arabia will be
temporary. CS Monitor and Washington Times

Related Articles

• Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya (13-Mar-2011)
  
  
• Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
  

****
**** Arab League plays it safe by only condemning Israel and terrorism
****

The split in the Arab world is being further confounded by the fact
that one of the Arab League members, Oman, seems to be increasingly
siding with Iran on issues dividing that country and Saudi Arabia.
Some reports have even suggested that Oman is serving as an
intermediary between Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, even to the extent
of turning a blind to the smuggling of Iranian weapons to the Houthis
in Yemen.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who was a guest at the Arab
League summit, said, Divisions in the Arab world have opened the door
to foreign intervention and manipulation, breeding instability,
sectarian strife, and terrorism."

Because the Arab League has no solutions to any of the serious
problems facing the Arab world, Wednesday's summit meeting focused on
the only safe subjects that everyone could agree on: Israel and
terrorism.

Jordan's King Abdullah, who was hosting the meeting, summarized these
issues:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is therefore our duty to protect [young Arabs]
> from distortions to their religion and ideological beliefs, since
> terrorism poses a greater threat to Arabs and Muslims, who make up
> the majority of its victims. ...
>
> Israel’s continued settlement expansion and its work to undermine
> chances for peace. There can be no peace, no stability in the
> region without a just and comprehensive solution to the
> Palestinian cause, the core issue of the Middle East, based on the
> two-state solution."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

If you're an Arab, it's always safe to wish for an end to terrorist.
Furthermore, it's also safe to to talk criticize Israel, and to call
for the adoption of the "two-state solution" to the
Israeli-Palestinian crisis, which would be a Palestinian state living
in peace side-by-side with the state of Israel, which could only work
in a fairy tale.

The prediction that I first posted in May 2003, just after President George Bush announced his Mideast
Roadmap to Peace, is just as true today as it was then: Jews and Arabs
are headed for a new generational crisis war, re-fighting the 1948-49
genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

Today, no one serious believes that the two-state solution is ever
going to work, or that terrorism is going to do anything but continue
to increase. Still, the Arab League has to call for something, and
calling for fantasies is the safest thing to do. Middle East Eye and Arab News and
Petra (Jordan) and Washington Post

Related Articles

• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (01-May-2003)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Arab League, Arab Spring, Tunisia, Egypt,
Yemen, Houthis, Libya, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Iran, Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia,
Beirut Lebanon, Sanaa Yemen, Baghdad Iraq, Damascus Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Oman, Antonio Guterres, King Abdullah, Israel, Palestine

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Mar-17 World View -- Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball
  
• Britain proposes 'The Great Repeal Bill'
  
• Scotland demands a new referendum on leaving the EU
  
• Northern Ireland considers reuniting with the Republic of Ireland
  

****
**** Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball
****


Theresa May

I hadn't realized how final the action was on Wednesday, when
Britain's prime minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon
Treaty, triggering a two-year negotiation period leading to the United
Kingdom official exiting the European Union as one of its member
states.

I had thought that during the two-year negotiation period, it was at
least possible that saner heads might prevail, and the UK would change
its mind and remain in the EU. However, it turns out that once
Article 50 is invoked, the decision is final, and the UK can no longer
change its mind. If the UK wants to remain in the EU, then remaining
would require approval of all 27 of the remaining member states, and
that seems almost impossible, given the vitriolic nature of today's
politics.

So the die is cast, and now the serious negotiations must begin, and
EU negotiators are playing hardball.

Theresa May: “No deal is better than a bad deal.” This means that
Britain will walk away from a deal if it's not a good deal.

EU officials: "Britain must not get a better deal outside the EU than
it has within the EU." EU officials fear that a good deal for Britain
might encourage other EU members to leave.

Britain and Theresa May want the first subject of negotiation to be
trade, so that businesses in both the UK and the EU can make plans for
conducting business in the future.

Donald Tusk and the European Commission are refusing to take that
route. They want the first order of business to be the "terms of the
divorce" - how you split the assets and liabilities.

In particular, EU officials are saying that the UK must pay the EU
some &euro;60 billion, and only when that issue is settled will they
be willing to discuss trade and other issues important to Theresa May
and Britain. The 60 billion includes such things as pension payments
to British nationals working for EU employers, and spending
commitments for EU projects and social programs that Britain committed
to contributing to when they were still in love. Some British
politicians are saying that they refuse to pay any of this, so this is
a potentially serious issue.

In her letter to European Commission president Donald Tusk, Theresa
May wrote:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is in the best interests of both the United
> Kingdom and the European Union that we should use the forthcoming
> process to deliver these objectives in a fair and orderly manner,
> and with as little disruption as possible on each side. We want to
> make sure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and is capable
> of projecting its values, leading in the world, and defending
> itself from security threats. We want the United Kingdom, through
> a new deep and special partnership with a strong European Union,
> to play its full part in achieving these goals. We therefore
> believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future
> partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the European
> Union."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Many people are describing this as a threat, implying that the
security relationship between Britain and the EU would be threatened
if Brussels demanded that the &euro;60 billion issue be resolved
before anything else could be even discussed.

There's one issue that analysts are saying should be easy to resolve:
The question of what happens to EU nationals working in Britain, and
to British nationals working in the EU. Issues like medical
benefits, pensions, and freedom of travel will have to be resolved.
Although these problems are big enough to seem insurmountable,
analysts are saying that both sides are anxious to resolve them, and
so it will be done.

On Friday, Donald Tusk will release his proposed negotiating
guidelines for Brexit talks. The proposal will then have to be
approved by the remaining 27 EU member states. Whenever that happens,
then the negotiations can begin.

I heard one analyst ways that almost nothing will be accomplished in
the negotiations for about 18 months, until October 2018, at which
time everyone will go into a panic. Text of Theresa May's letter and Daily Mail (London) and Reuters

****
**** Britain proposes 'The Great Repeal Bill'
****

This is really mind-blowing. The problem is that Britain has been
following the laws and regulations of the European Union for decades,
and on the day that Britain leaves the EU, all of these thousands of
laws and regulations will disappear, resulting in something close to
anarchy.

So the government is proposing "The Great Repeal Bill," which will do
the following:

• Repeal the European Communities Act (ECA), under which
  European law, regulations and courts are supreme over British law,
  regulations and courts. Getting rid of the ECA was a major objective
  of those who wanted Britain to leave the EU.
  
  
• On the final Brexit day, two years from now, Britain will take a
  "snapshot" of the entire body of EU laws, regulations and court
  decisions, and make them a part of British law.
  
  
• Define a process for amending or repealing the inherited EU laws,
  regulations and court decisions. Since there are many thousands of
  them, this could take ten to twenty years.
  
  
• Give special powers to the government to amend or repeal the
  inherited laws without having to get approval from the parliament.
  This will give enormous, sweeping, almost dictatorial powers to the
  government, and there's no simple way to prevent officials from
  abusing those powers.

According to Britain's government, there are about 12,000 EU
regulations in force in Britain, about 7,900 implemented EU
directives, and some 186 acts of Parliament that will have be absorbed
into British law, and then amended over time.

There's a mind-boggling irony to all this. The purpose of Brexit was
to prevent Britain from being under the control of Brussels. But in
fact, Britain will be under the control of the Brussels' laws for
years to come.

Furthermore, existing EU case law will continue to have precedence of
existing British law. According to the description of the repeal
bill:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If, after exit, a conflict arises between two
> pre-exit laws, one of which is an EU-derived law and the other
> not, then the EU-derived law will continue to take precedence over
> the other pre-exit law."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This reminds me of the old saying: "Be careful what you wish for. You
might get it." UK government - The Great Repeal Bill and Business Insider and CNN

Related Articles

• Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' and reverse Brexit (18-Feb-2017)
  
  
• European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Scotland demands a new referendum on leaving the EU
****

Of the four nations in the United Kingdom, England and Wales voted for
Brexit, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU.
Now they're being forced to leave the EU against their will.

On September 18, 2014, Scotland held a referendum on the question of
whether Scotland should leave the UK and become an independent
country. This would have dissolved the 1707 union between England and
Scotland that came out of the War of the Spanish Succession. If the
referendum had passed, then Scotland might have left the UK and become
an independent country. It wouldn't automatically have been a member
of the EU, however, as joining the EU would have required the approval
of all 28 countries.

The referendum was voted down, but that was before Brexit. Now,
Scotland's parliament has has voted by 69 to 59 to hold a new
referendum. However, a new referendum on this subject cannot be held
without the approval of Britain's government in London.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has signed a letter formally
asking for permission to hold a second Scottish independence
referendum.

Theresa May has said that the UK government will not approve the
referendum until Brexit is completed, two years from now.

Sturgeon says that she may go ahead with an unofficial referendum.
Scottish Sun and BBC

Related Articles

• Scotland faces reality as independence referendum approaches (18-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Scotland considers separation from England as 'Hard Brexit' looms (15-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Scotland's independence referendum is encouraging Catalonia's separatists (11-Sep-2014)
  

****
**** Northern Ireland considers reuniting with the Republic of Ireland
****

Northern Ireland also voted to remain in the EU, but the situation is
quite different than for Scotland.

Ireland has a long bitter history of religious and factional wars, and
it's only in recent years that the border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland has been open for free travel of people and goods. However,
once Brexit occurs, Ireland will be in the European Union, while
Northern Ireland will not, and finding a way to keep the border open
has been a major priority for Northern Ireland, Ireland, London, and
the EU.

Over a period of centuries, many of the sectarian wars in Ireland have
been between the Catholic republicans, who want to unify Ireland and
Northern Ireland, versus the Protestant loyalists, who want Northern
Ireland to be part of the UK.

Now those old wounds are opening again, as a proposed solution to the
"open border" problem would be for Northern Ireland to leave the UK
and become part of the Republic of Ireland. There wouldn't even be a
problem with the EU, as Northern Ireland would automatically be part
of the EU since it would be part of Ireland.

This is an extremely emotional issue in Ireland, and may even result
in new violence. RTE (Ireland) and Irish Times

Related Articles

• England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland (12-May-2016)
  
  
• Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Kingdom, European Union, Brexit,
Theresa May, Great Repeal Bill, Donald Tusk,
European Communities Act, ECA,
Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, War of the Spanish Succession,
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-29-2017, 06:34 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Vitriolic fervor? Uh, I thought that was a Boomer thingie. Cool
> Dunno, but I'm one of addled cuspers or something.

That's news to me. I've been vitriolically screwed by more than one
Gen-Xer.

Actually, maybe I see what you mean. Boomers have a culture where you
can argue with each other with vitriolic fervor and still be friends.

But if you argue with a Gen-Xer, then he smiles and doesn't say
anything. But as soon as you turn around, you're on the floor with
your blood spilling all over the place as result of the big knife that
the Gen-Xer shoved into your back when you weren't looking. If you're
still able to look around with your last dying breath, then you can
see that he's still smiling.

(03-29-2017, 06:34 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Globalist scumbag: Did this person present a cogent POV? Usually,
> ad homs mean that person has basically lost the argument right
> then, and there.

No. It was just a one-line comment with no explanation. It's always
stuck in my mind because when I saw the comment about a year ago, I
had no idea what a "globalist scumbag" was, and why I was one, so I
had to ask some people what he meant. I agree that a person who
does that has no clue what he's talking about.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Apr-17 World View -- India-Pakistan clash threatened as Kashmir violence surges again

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violence in India-controlled Kashmir takes a new turn after winter lull
  
• Indian police arrest top separatist militant commander in Kashmir
  
• Uprising in Kashmir growing into major regional war between India and Pakistan
  

****
**** Violence in India-controlled Kashmir takes a new turn after winter lull
****


A group of youth pelt stones at Indian security forces in Budgam on Tuesday (PTI)

On Wednesday, in the district of Budgam in India-controlled Kashmir,
Indian security forces raided the home of an anti-government militant
Tauseef Ahmad Wagay who had allegedly been responsible for inciting
violence against police. According to India media reports, villagers
began obstructing the police and pelting them with stones, in order to
allow the militants in the home to escape. In the end, three stone
pelters were killed by police gunfire, along with the militant.
Dozens of police personnel were injured.

On Friday, after Friday prayers, clashes erupted between government
forces and stone-throwing villagers in several towns across Kashmir,
to protest the shooting deaths on Wednesday.

Stone-throwing incidents have occurred occasionally in the past, but
became frequent after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the
leader of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed
by Indian police fire. Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day.
Indian police responded with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters
wounded or killed or blinded by the pellets, and that kind of violence
has been an almost daily occurrence since then. After hundreds of
people had been blinded by the pellets, the police were convinced to
stop using them. By this time winter was approaching, and the
protests died down.

But now that the weather is getting warmer again, the protests are
growing again, and they may become massive by the end of the summer.
At any rate, there's certainly no reason to expect them to die off.

India's Home Minister Rajnath Singh gave a delusional speech on
Friday, saying that the increasing protests are occurring because
they're being encouraged by Pakistan-based sources, using social media
applications like Whatsapp and Facebook:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I want to inform the House, and we should be proud of
> it Deputy Chairman, that the way the terrorists should be
> responded to, our soldiers are giving them reply in the same way,
> in the same language.
>
> A new trend has started in the last few months. Deputy speaker,
> the trend is this that whenever our soldiers start an operation,
> some youth from the villages come and start pelting stones on the
> security forces. But I believe, that our Kashmiri youth, who do
> stone pelting, are being misled by some Pak-sponsored sources.
>
> I want to appeal to the youth of Kashmir to please don’t get
> misled by Pakistan, they are regularly trying to destabilise
> India. I also want to inform the House that this crowd (of stone
> pelters) are assembled by some Pakistan-based groups with the help
> of social media applications like Whatsapp and Facebook. All of
> these are used. I want to say it again that the groups, which use
> social media for this, are based in Pakistan only.
>
> I also want to say, as far as terrorism is concerned, the way
> terrorism should be responded to, our soldiers are dealing with
> them in the same way and they will keep doing that in future
> also. And I want to say that will definitely become
> successful."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There are a couple of things to note about the above statement.

First, there's a note of revenge in the speech with such phrases as,
"our soldiers are giving them reply in the same way, in the same
language." The desire for revenge is quite understandable under the
circumstances, but it's not going to end the violence and, in fact, it
will only invite tit-for-tat increases in violence.

Second, Singh blames Pakistan-based groups using social media for
inciting the stone-throwers. It's quite possible that Pakistan-based
groups are using social media to incite stone-throwers, but in no way
does that explain the large protests. Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups
have been trying to incite jihadist violence in the United States for
years, but outside of a few "lone wolf" attacks, we've had no large
similar protests, even where there are large Muslim communities in
Detroit and Minneapolis. Blaming social media for what's happening is
totally delusional.

Third, Singh says, "And I want to say that will definitely become
successful." Once again, this is totally delusional.

What seems most likely to happen is that violence will increase on
both sides this summer, and may spiral into something slightly bigger
or much bigger. First Post (India) and Financial Express (India)

Related Articles

• India-Pakistan tensions rise as India celebrates 1971 victory over Pakistan (16-Dec-2016)
  
  
• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India, Pakistan celebrate independence day with vitriolic accusations about Kashmir (15-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** Indian police arrest top separatist militant commander in Kashmir
****

Separately on Friday, Amir Wagay, the current top commander of Hizbul
Mujahideen, was arrested on Friday, along with some arms and
ammunition, according to police reports. He was involved in numerous
attacks on security forces, and was high on the "wanted" list.

Burhan Wani, who was shot by police on July 8 of last year, triggering
months of violent protests, was the commander of Hizbul Mujahideen at
that time. Hindustan Times

Related Articles

• Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured (14-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Uprising in Kashmir growing into major regional war between India and Pakistan
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the growing violence
in Kashmir is following a fairly standard historical template that
always ends in a major war. I've written in the past to distinguish
between "organic" genocides that come from the people, such as the
1994 Rwanda genocide, versus "government-led" genocides, such as
occurring today in Syria and South Sudan.

Although there's little doubt that Pakistan-based groups are inciting
violence in Kashmir, that isn't enough to start a generational war
unless the mood of the population is that such a war is necessary. As
I mentioned above, there are jihadists groups inciting Muslims in
America to violence, but they're having almost no success. But what
we're seeing in Kashmir is an "organic" war that's leading unstoppably
to a generational crisis war.

As I described last year,
India's
last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, and the
1947 Partition war.

The 1857 rebellion is also called India's First War of Independence
from the British colonial power. What started out as protests related
to the Hindu veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody
generational crisis war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000
Indian civilians.

India remained a British colony, and there was little or no violence
for decades, as always happens after a generational crisis war, since
the traumatized survivors do not wish anything so horrible to happen
again. However, as younger generations with no personal memory of the
war rise to power, conflicts begin again.

In the 1910s, Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, launched a
"non-cooperation movement" against the British, involving civil
disobedience. The generational Awakening era climax occurred on April
10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre),
when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest
meeting, killing hundreds. That event convinced both the British and
the Indians that Britain should completely give up control of India.

By 1946, there was a debate centered on two choices: Should there be a
single Indian state, with separate regions under the control of
Muslims and Hindus, or should there be a two-state solution, a Muslim
state living side-by-side in peace with a Hindu state? The argument
that won the day was that Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't
eat cows, and so they can't live together. Finally, British, Muslim
and Hindu officials all agreed that there had to be two separate
states, India and Pakistan. In particular, the 1857 rebellion was
still in everyone's mind, and it was hoped that the two-state solution
would lead to peace.

There's an old saying that "History doesn't repeat itself, but it
rhymes." In 1947, the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into two
countries, India and Pakistan, and no sooner did that happen then
there was a massive new generational crisis war. But with the British
colonists gone, this war pitted the Hindus against Muslims, in one of
the bloodiest wars of the 20th century.

Once again, there was relative peace following the war, but once
again, younger generations have been rising, and have no fear of a new
war. The accusation that Pakistan-based groups are using social media
to incite violence is undoubtedly true, but India media are no better.

Here's an excerpt from an opinion piece from right-of-center Indian
media:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is good that the Army Chief has made good his
> promise that those aiding terrorists will be dealt with like
> terrorists themselves, but there are discordant notes being struck
> by politicians who still think talks can sort out the
> situation. ...
>
> It is silly to expect that talks with Pakistan or Kashmiri
> separatists will somehow bring peace to the Valley. It won’t. The
> only way peace will come is when the security forces wear down the
> jihadis and Pakistan-backed terrorists over years, and the local
> population realizes that they have no alternative but to be a part
> of secular India. There is not going to be any instant nirvana in
> this deadly game."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The person who wrote has absolutely no clue what he's talking about
when he writes, "The only way peace will come is when the security
forces wear down the jihadis and Pakistan-backed terrorists." That is
not what happens in a generational Crisis era. The security forces
will only enrage the separatist youth, and tit-for-tat escalations
will soon lead to a full-scale war that will spread and engulf both
Pakistan and India. That's the way that the world works.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. Swarajya Magazine (India

Related Articles

• Generational history of cow protection in India and Hinduism (07-Aug-2016)
  
  
• A century of genocides (21-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Budgam, Tauseef Ahmad Wagay,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Rajnath Singh, Pakistan,
Whatsapp, Facebook, Amir Wagay, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition War,
Mahatma Gandhi, Jalianvala Bagh Massacre, Amritsar Massacre

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Apr-17 World View -- Paraguay wracked by worst violent riots in decades over constitutional crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Paraguay wracked by worst violent riots in decades over constitutional crisis
  
• Brief generational history of Paraguay
  
• Paraguay's National Congress building was built with funding from Taiwan
  

****
**** Paraguay wracked by worst violent riots in decades over constitutional crisis
****


Protesters setting fire to Paraguay's National Congress building in Asunción on Friday night (Reuters)

One person was killed and dozens injured on Friday night in Paraguay's
capital city Asunción during the most massive and most violent
anti-government protests since democracy was restored in 1992. The
protesters chanted "Dictatorship never again!", in opposition to a
proposed constitutional amendment that would permit President Horacio
Manuel Cartes to run for a second five-year term in 2018.

Protesters also set fire to the National Congress building, which
burned for over two hours, as the rioting carried on long into the
night. Two hundred people were arrested.

The protesters were reacting to the memory of the vicious, bloody
35-year dictatorship of General Alfredo Stroessner Matiauda, who had
governed Paraguay from 1954 to 1989. He was thrown out of office in a
coup, after which a constitution guaranteeing democracy was
implemented. The constitution stated that the president would have
one five-year term, and could not be reelected.

On Friday, by a secret vote, Paraguay's Senate (upper house) approved
a constitutional amendment allowing the re-election of a president to
a second term, triggering the violent riots on Friday evening.

For the constitutional amendment to pass, it must also be approved by
the Chamber of Deputies (lower house), where 44 of the 80 members
belong to Cartes's right-wing governing Colorado party. When the vote
is taken, the amendment is expected to be approved easily. It's
thought that the rioters set the National Congress building on fire to
prevent the vote from being taken.

The constitution amendment is opposed by Senate President Roberto
Acevedo of the opposition left-wing Authentic Radical Liberal Party.
It's feared that if the amendment is passed, then rioting will be
renewed. The dead protester was Rodrigo Quintana, a member of the
Authentic Radical Liberal Party.

On Saturday evening, President Horacio Cartes fired Paraguay’s
interior minister and top police officials in the hope of avoiding
more rioting. The vote in the lower house has been postponed.
Reuters and Straits Times (Singapore) and Washington Post

****
**** Brief generational history of Paraguay
****

The Spaniards arrived in 1537, and Paraguay became part of the Spanish
empire during the conquests of the mid-1500s. Spain's South American
empire continued relatively peacefully until the early 1800s, when a
major event occurred.

The French Revolution had occurred in the 1790s, and by the early
1800s, Emperor Napoleon of France was proceeding with a series of
conquests with the intention of forming an early "European Union,"
with Napoleon at its head. One of the conquests of his French army
was the invasion of the Iberian Peninsula in 1807-08, usurping the
Spanish crown. This created a domino effect in Latin America, where
one country after another declared independence from Spain, and the
Spanish empire essentially disintegrated by 1825. Paraguay achieved
independence in 1811.

Paraguay's next generational crisis war was the War of the Triple
Alliance, 1865-70, which Paraguay fought against Brazil, Argentina and
Uruguay. This war was devastating. In the five years of war, as many
as 300,000 people, over half of the population, were killed.

Both of these generational crisis wars, the war for independence and
the War of the Triple Alliance, are still well-remembered in Paraguay
today, and stand as a symbol of the country's unity against foreign
invaders.

The Chaco War, 1932-35, was the next generational crisis war, once
again fought against another country. The Chaco War, was fought
against Bolivia, resulting in the deaths of about 100,000 men.

Alfredo Stroessner was of German ancestry, with a father from Bavaria
and a mother from a wealthy Paraguayan family. As a soldier, he
fought bravely in the Chaco War, and he was promoted several times
during the next decade. In the generational Recovery era that
followed, the Chaco War, he proved to be an able politician in the
power struggles that occurred, including a brief civil war in 1947.

In 1954, General Stroessner became a dictator through a coup. This
was the beginning of the country's generational Awakening era. I've
described many times how a country's leader during this period can
become extremely violent or even genocidal, as we're seeing today
during the Awakening eras of Syria and South Sudan. These leaders use
as an excuse that they have to use violence to prevent a new crisis
war from breaking out, although that's impossible anyway during an
Awakening era. Stroessner's 35-year rule was particularly vicious and
bloody, as we described above.

Stroessner was overthrown in a coup in 1989, and in 1992 a
constitution was installed that promised a democracy -- including the
provision that no one could be president for more than one five-year
term. The current president, Horacio Cartes, is trying to amend the
constitution to run again, as described above, and this has triggered
the most rioting and violence since 1992.

Many people are concerned that this might trigger a civil war between
different groups within Paraguay, but this seems unlikely, since the
last three generational crisis wars were all fought with an external
enemy.

There is a great deal of race awareness in Paraguay. In decreasing
order, from those considered the most élite to those considered least
élite, historically they are as follows:

• Peninsulares - Spaniards born on the Iberian Peninsula
  
• Creoles - pure blood descendants of the Peninsulares, but born in
  Paraguay
  
• Mestizos - mixed race descendants of marriages between Spaniards
  and Indians
  
• Guaranis - Indians or Amerindians - Indigenous Indian tribes
  
• African-Americans or noirs

In recent decades, there have been additional populations of Japanese,
Korean, Lebanese and ethnic Chinese immigrants that have formed small
communities. Another distinct subgroup are the "brasiguayos,"
second-generation Brazilians that were born and raised in Paraguay.

Although there are distinct class differences among the groups listed
above, there is no history of a war along a fault line separating
them.

Since Paraguay is in a generational Crisis era, it may be close to
another war, but I would not expect it to be a civil war, and I would
not expect the current rioting to spiral into a larger war, unless
another country got involved. Paraguay's crisis wars have all been
fought against external enemies, and I would expect its next crisis
war to be the same. Country Studies - Paraguay and History World - Paraguay and Every Culture - Paraguay

Related Articles

• Pope Francis in Paraguay alludes to 1860s War of the Triple Alliance (12-Jul-2015)
  
  
• South Sudan increasingly parallels Syria in genocidal violence (24-Dec-2016)
  

****
**** Paraguay's National Congress building was built with funding from Taiwan
****

An interesting sidebar to this story was that Paraguay's National
Congress building was built using a $20 million donation from Taiwan.
This is the building where protesters ransacked and set fire on Friday
night.

Paraguay is the only country in South America that recognizes Taiwan.
China does will not have diplomatic relations with any nation that has
diplomatic relations with Taiwan. So China and Taiwan compete with
each other to have diplomatic relations with each country, and very
often there's a great deal of money involved in that competition.
China Post (Taiwan)

Related Articles

• Following the money, Sao Tome and Principe switches allegiance from Taiwan to China (28-Dec-2016)
  
  
• China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China (26-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Paraguay, Asunción, Horacio Manuel Cartes,
Alfredo Stroessner Matiauda, Colorado party
Roberto Acevedo, Rodrigo Quintana, Authentic Radical Liberal Party,
French Revolution, Napoleon,
War of the Triple Alliance, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay,
Chaco War, Bolivia, Peninsulares, Creoles, Mestizos, Guaranis,
Brasiguayos, Taiwan, China

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

(03-28-2017, 11:43 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: And... So, John, here's why I'm a nationalist:  Have you ever considered that globalism has totally ruined the lives of lots of Americans?  As some may recall, I lost my job to some stupid H1-B. I think a better way of expressing the drivers of nationalism are resentment towards elites, my own economic distress caused by globalism.  Nationalism is the solution to that. It's not perfect, but the only way I see to address said resentments. In fact, I'd like the US to become an economic autarky. The US has a sufficient array of technology and natural resources to go that way. The way I see it, is that the elites would suffer greatly from autarky. It goes like this John, they fucked me over and I want revenge and a chance at something better. Face it, if you're a prole, the current arrangement has lots of better outcomes.  And... so I say again, shut down the MIC! I really don't give a shit if the shipping lanes are not defended by my tax dollars. If the exporting nations want to send their crap here, let THEM PAY, and if not, just let the whole rotten system collapse.

Fuck the MIC, fuck the oligarchies who benefit from my tax dollars going to defend THEIR shipping lanes. If said oligarchies want to import crap, LET THEM PAY, I want nothing of it. In fact, I opt out as much as I can to further the cause of collapse.  The US is just like the Soviet Union. The elites serve only themselves, period.  So.. I think elite overreach is the proximate cause of nationalism/xenophobia.

Why not focus more constructively on limiting immigration?  If those H1Bs don't get renewed, people like you will get their jobs back.

[Warren Dew]

(03-15-2017, 11:16 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-15-2017, 10:42 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Regarding that Syrian picture with the children that I presume was
>   taken in either Aleppo or Homs or their environs, Xers and Millies
>   laugh at them. They deserved what they got, when you rebel against
>   true human values and masculinity and embrace globalistic and
>   childish decadence, like a large proportion of the people of Syria
>   did, THOSE are the consequences you can expect. Shedding crocodile
>   tears like you are doing (because lets admit it, you only care
>   about "helping" them because it suits you and other boomers
>   globalistic agenda) does not change the law of nature. Trump,
>   Duterte and soon to be Le Pen are taking the west back to its
>   strong Manly Roman-derived roots. Trump is tearing down the old
>   image of Americans as helpers of the rest of the world, for now on
>   the new attitude of america will be: we will keep what we have for
>   ourselves; to foreign nations: as long as your sufferings does not
>   negatively impact ourselves or our prosperity, we will not care
>   whether you refugees live or die, you exist to serve us. LONG LIVE
>   TRUMP AND THE NEW AMERICA HE IS CREATING. WE MILLENNIALS AND XERS
>   will not allow TRUMP to be "defanged"; we will not allow him to be
>   turned into a puppet for the Neo-liberal/Neocon/Globalist agenda
>   of global decadence.

I'm going to guess that whoever laughs at that picture has never had
sons.

I have sons, but I have a hard time telling what that picture is of.  Are we assuming the rubble is where their home formerly was?

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-02-2017, 07:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-15-2017, 11:16 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-15-2017, 10:42 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Regarding that Syrian picture with the children that I presume was
>   taken in either Aleppo or Homs or their environs, Xers and Millies
>   laugh at them. They deserved what they got, when you rebel against
>   true human values and masculinity and embrace globalistic and
>   childish decadence, like a large proportion of the people of Syria
>   did, THOSE are the consequences you can expect. Shedding crocodile
>   tears like you are doing (because lets admit it, you only care
>   about "helping" them because it suits you and other boomers
>   globalistic agenda) does not change the law of nature. Trump,
>   Duterte and soon to be Le Pen are taking the west back to its
>   strong Manly Roman-derived roots. Trump is tearing down the old
>   image of Americans as helpers of the rest of the world, for now on
>   the new attitude of america will be: we will keep what we have for
>   ourselves; to foreign nations: as long as your sufferings does not
>   negatively impact ourselves or our prosperity, we will not care
>   whether you refugees live or die, you exist to serve us. LONG LIVE
>   TRUMP AND THE NEW AMERICA HE IS CREATING. WE MILLENNIALS AND XERS
>   will not allow TRUMP to be "defanged"; we will not allow him to be
>   turned into a puppet for the Neo-liberal/Neocon/Globalist agenda
>   of global decadence.

I'm going to guess that whoever laughs at that picture has never had
sons.

I have sons, but I have a hard time telling what that picture is of.  Are we assuming the rubble is where their home formerly was?

Did you laugh?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Apr-17 World View -- Dalai Lama to visit region of northeast India claimed by China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Dalai Lama to visit region of northeast India claimed by China
  
• Dalai Lama's escape from Tibet to India in 1959 Lhasa uprising still humiliates China
  

****
**** Dalai Lama to visit region of northeast India claimed by China
****


Map showing disputed border regions, Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, between India and China (South China Morning Post)

China, the country that illegally annexes regions in the South China
Sea and builds illegal military bases there, is now making its usual
furious threats because the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of the
Tibetan Buddhists, merely wants to visit the town of Tawang in the
Himalaya mountains in northeastern India. The visit begins on
Tuesday, and continues for 12 days.

Tawang is a district in India's state of Arunachal Pradesh, 2,000 sq
km in size, with fewer than 50,000 people. However, it contains the
17th century hilltop Tawang Monastery, which houses a massive gilded
Buddha statue. Because of this monastery, China claims that Tawang is
part of Tibet, and claims further that Tibet is part of China and so
Tawang is part of China.

China's foreign ministry said that the Dalai Lama's visit "to the
contested area will inflict severe damage on the China-India
relationship," although the relationship is already so severely
damaged that it's hard to see how a mere visit is going to damage it
more. In response, India announced that India's Minister of Home
Affairs would appear in Tawang with the Dalai Lama, thus giving the
visit much greater international prominence.

There are conflicting stories about what the Dalai has said in the
past about whether Tawang is part of Tibet or part of India.
According to India's former ambassador Ranjit S Kalha, when the Dalai
Lama fled from Tibet in 1959 and passed through Tawang, at that time
he thanked India for making his journey "through this extremely well
administered part of India as comfortable as possible." However,
Chinese officials claim that the Dalai Lama said for years that Tawang
was historically Tibetan, and only in 2008 said that it was part of
India.

According to recent statement by a Chinese official:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Dalai Lama’s assertion that Tawang is part of
> India is against the core interest of the Chinese people. He
> advocates Tibetan autonomy but is really seeking independence. By
> allowing him a platform, the India government is going back on its
> promise of not allowing the Tibetan government in exile to engage
> in activities undermining China’s sovereignty."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There is also a 1914 deal between India and Tibet defining the border
between Tibet and India, and making all of Arunachal Pradesh part of
India. However, China has never recognized this deal.

There have been agreements in 1993 and 2005 between India and China
that appeared to settle the border disputes by putting Arunachal
Pradesh into India, and putting another region, Aksai Chin, on the
border with Kashmir, into Chinese territory, as shown on the map
above.

However, those agreements were made when both countries were in
generational Unraveling eras (like America in the 1990s), when
nationalism and xenophobia are generally at a low point. Today, both
countries are well into a generational Crisis era, with increasing
nationalism and xenophobia, and both countries are becoming more
assertive and confrontational, and no longer able to compromise.
Deutsche Welle and Indian ambassador Ranjit S Kalha and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)

****
**** Dalai Lama's escape from Tibet to India in 1959 Lhasa uprising still humiliates China
****

After China's army invaded Tibet in 1950 and "liberated" it, there
were frequent clashes between China's army and Tibetans. These
clashes culminated in Tibet's extremely bloody generational crisis
war, the 1959 uprising in Lhasa, Tibet's capital city.

In March 1959, China's army invited the Dalai Lama to visit army
headquarters for a theatrical performance and tea. Many Tibetans
believed that the army planned to kidnap the Dalai Lama and possibly
kill him. On March 10, 300,000 Tibetans confronted China's forces,
which some reports number up to a million. The Dalai Lama escaped to
India, and in the war that followed, tens of thousands of Tibetan men,
women and children were slaughtered by China's army. China also
destroyed Lhasa's major monasteries along with thousands of their
inhabitants.

Allowing the Dalai Lama to escape has been a continuing humiliation to
China. China keeps hoping he'll drop dead, but at age 81, he has
refused to do so, so far.

However, the successor to the Dalai Lama has become a major issue.
The current Dalai Lama is the 14th. Each Dalai Lama is believed to be
a reincarnation of the previous one. Each Dalai Lama can choose the
person who will select the next Dalai Lama after he dies. The current
Dalai Lama did select a six-year-old boy in the 1995 for this role,
but the boy and his family were immediately kidnapped and killed by
the Chinese government.

China now wants to take control of the succession process, and
essentially to select the next Dalai Lama when the current one dies.
However, it's not likely that the Tibetan people will accept the
choice of the Chinese government. History.com and Phayul.com (India) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)

Related Stories

• China punishes Mongolia for Dalai Lama visit during financial crisis (29-Dec-2016)
  
  
• 3-Feb-10 News - China objects to Obama's meeting with Dalai Lama (03-Feb-2010)
  
  
• Dalai Lama visit emphasizes Mongolia's return to Buddhism from secularism (06-Mar-2012)
  
  
• Typhoon Morakot triggers a Dalai Lama visit to Taiwan (28-Aug-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tibet, Lhasa, Dalai Lama, India, China,
Aksai Chin, Arunachal Pradesh, Tawang, Tawang Monastery,
Ranjit S Kalha, Kashmir

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Apr-17 World View -- St. Petersburg, Russia, train explosion may be blowback from Syria military intervention

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Explosion in St. Petersburg subway kills 11, injures dozens
  
• Suspicion falls on blowback from Russia's military intervention into Syria
  

****
**** Explosion in St. Petersburg subway kills 11, injures dozens
****


Vladimir Putin lays flowers in memory of those killed in Monday's terror attack (Tass)

St. Petersburg, Russia, has declared three days of mourning, starting
from Tuesday, after a bomb exploded on Monday afternoon on a train
full of passengers traveling between two stations, killing 11 and
injuring dozens. Later, a much larger unexploded bomb was found in a
metro station.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin was in the city when the blast
occurred, meeting with Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko, though
it's not known whether the attack was timed for Monday because the two
leaders were present. Putin laid flowers at a makeshift shrine in
memory of those who had been killed.

Two million people use the St. Petersburg metro every day. The entire
metro system has been put into lockdown, and the people are said to be
in fear of further violence. Tass (Russia) and Sky News and BBC

Related Articles

• Russia's mass arrest of St. Petersburg Muslims raises specter of blowback (15-Feb-2013)
  

****
**** Suspicion falls on blowback from Russia's military intervention into Syria
****

No one has yet taken credit for the St. Petersburg terror attacks, but
many believe that the most likely perpetrators are either the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) or else Chechen
terrorists from the Caucasian Emirate formed after Russia's war in
Chechnya in the 1990s. In either case, the attack was most likely
blowback from Russia's military intervention in Syria.

Russia is a Christian country, and its Christian soldiers have already
fought against Sunni Muslim fighters in Afghanistan in the 1980s and
in Chechnya in the 1990s. In the 2010s, Christian Russia is allied
with Shia Muslim Iran, an arch-enemy of Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia.
Russia is fighting on the side of Syria's Shia/Alawite president
Bashar al-Assad, who is a war criminal dropping barrel bombs and
chemical weapons on innocent Sunni Muslim women and children in
schools, markets, and even Palestinian refugee camps.

This isn't rocket science. Many analysts have said that there would
be blowback. I've been saying so for years, and I've repeatedly
criticized the stupidity of Vladimir Putin for going down that path,
because blowback has always been certain. You'd have to be crazy to
think otherwise. In fact, ISIS has been putting out videos
threatening revenge against Russia for invading Syria.

There have been other Sunni jihadist attacks on Russia. In October
2015, ISIS was responsible for bringing down a Russian airliner
departing Egypt for St. Petersburg. In 2013, Islamists blew up a
train station and a bus near Volgograd. Moscow's airport was attacked
in 2011, and its subway system in 2004. Last year, Russia's
ambassador to Turkey was killed in Ankara in revenge for Russia's
intervention in Syria.

But now, things could be getting worse. ISIS is under attack and is
being driven out of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria. Russian
security officials have pointed out that there are over 7,000 Islamist
fighters from Russia and other former Soviet countries fighting in
Syria, and with ISIS possibly close to defeat, some of those fighters
will be free to return to their home countries.

It's not certain that Islamist terrorists were responsible for
Monday's attacks. Other hypotheses include Ukrainian terrorists, and
even anti-government criminals in Russia. But even if one of those
hypotheses turns out to be true, the global fury of Sunni Muslims
against Christian Russia is real, and will be felt.

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China,
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia
and Iran. In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale
Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Monday's terror attack in
St. Petersburg moves the world further along that trend line.
Telegraph (London) and Arab News and Sky News

Related Articles

• Bombing of plane in Egypt threatens Russia's Syria strategy (05-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Chechnya terrorist Doku Umarov takes credit for Moscow airport bombing (09-Feb-2011)
  
  
• Another Volgograd explosion throws Russia's Sochi Olympics into doubt (31-Dec-2013)
  
  
• Russian President Putin asks revenge for terror attack on Beslan school (04-Sep-2004)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin,
Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, Egypt, Ukraine,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Raqqa, Iraq, Mosul

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Ragnarök_62]

(04-03-2017, 09:20 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 4-Apr-17 World View -- St. Petersburg, Russia, train explosion may be blowback from Syria military intervention

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Explosion in St. Petersburg subway kills 11, injures dozens
  
• Suspicion falls on blowback from Russia's military intervention into Syria
  

****
**** Explosion in St. Petersburg subway kills 11, injures dozens
****


Vladimir Putin lays flowers in memory of those killed in Monday's terror attack (Tass)

St. Petersburg, Russia, has declared three days of mourning, starting
from Tuesday, after a bomb exploded on Monday afternoon on a train
full of passengers traveling between two stations, killing 11 and
injuring dozens.  Later, a much larger unexploded bomb was found in a
metro station.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin was in the city when the blast
occurred, meeting with Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko, though
it's not known whether the attack was timed for Monday because the two
leaders were present.  Putin laid flowers at a makeshift shrine in
memory of those who had been killed.

Two million people use the St. Petersburg metro every day.  The entire
metro system has been put into lockdown, and the people are said to be
in fear of further violence.  Tass (Russia) and Sky News and BBC

Related Articles

• Russia's mass arrest of St. Petersburg Muslims raises specter of blowback (15-Feb-2013)
  

****
**** Suspicion falls on blowback from Russia's military intervention into Syria
****

No one has yet taken credit for the St. Petersburg terror attacks, but
many believe that the most likely perpetrators are either the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) or else Chechen
terrorists from the Caucasian Emirate formed after Russia's war in
Chechnya in the 1990s.  In either case, the attack was most likely
blowback from Russia's military intervention in Syria.

Russia is a Christian country, and its Christian soldiers have already
fought against Sunni Muslim fighters in Afghanistan in the 1980s and
in Chechnya in the 1990s.  In the 2010s, Christian Russia is allied
with Shia Muslim Iran, an arch-enemy of Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia.
Russia is fighting on the side of Syria's Shia/Alawite president
Bashar al-Assad, who is a war criminal dropping barrel bombs and
chemical weapons on innocent Sunni Muslim women and children in
schools, markets, and even Palestinian refugee camps.

This isn't rocket science.  Many analysts have said that there would
be blowback.  I've been saying so for years, and I've repeatedly
criticized the stupidity of Vladimir Putin for going down that path,
because blowback has always been certain.  You'd have to be crazy to
think otherwise.  In fact, ISIS has been putting out videos
threatening revenge against Russia for invading Syria.

There have been other Sunni jihadist attacks on Russia.  In October
2015, ISIS was responsible for bringing down a Russian airliner
departing Egypt for St. Petersburg.  In 2013, Islamists blew up a
train station and a bus near Volgograd.  Moscow's airport was attacked
in 2011, and its subway system in 2004.  Last year, Russia's
ambassador to Turkey was killed in Ankara in revenge for Russia's
intervention in Syria.

But now, things could be getting worse.  ISIS is under attack and is
being driven out of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.  Russian
security officials have pointed out that there are over 7,000 Islamist
fighters from Russia and other former Soviet countries fighting in
Syria, and with ISIS possibly close to defeat, some of those fighters
will be free to return to their home countries.

It's not certain that Islamist terrorists were responsible for
Monday's attacks.  Other hypotheses include Ukrainian terrorists, and
even anti-government criminals in Russia.  But even if one of those
hypotheses turns out to be true, the global fury of Sunni Muslims
against Christian Russia is real, and will be felt.

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China,
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia
and Iran.  In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale
Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and
various ethnic groups against each other.  Monday's terror attack in
St. Petersburg moves the world further along that trend line.
Telegraph (London) and Arab News and Sky News

<snip>

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.  It is for no reason the US also suffers blowback from meddling in that hellhole, the Mideast. So may it be, let there in the future any crap about human rights, oil, whatever fall on deaf ears here in the US. It's time to stop the insanity of doing the same thing over and over again. US out of the Mideast.





Mideast oil = tormentor , man. 


--- Sad, but True - Metallica.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-03-2017, 10:09 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > What's good for the goose is good for the gander. It is for no
> reason the US also suffers blowback from meddling in that
> hellhole, the Mideast. So may it be, let there in the future any
> crap about human rights, oil, whatever fall on deaf ears here in
> the US. It's time to stop the insanity of doing the same thing
> over and over again. US out of the Mideast.

This is not going to happen.

For example, I just heard Democratic senator Jane Harmon say
that America has an obligation to help the Syrian people, after
today's horrific chemical weapons attack by Bashar al-Assad.

Other people would point out that America has an obligation to defend
Israel, as the Mideast's only democracy.

As I wrote last year, there are a lot of people, in America and in the
world, who believe in American Exceptionalism, and who truly believe
that America has a moral obligation, or even an obligation dictated by
God, to do the right thing, and they would not consider staying out of
the Mideast as the way to do the right thing.

[Ragnarök_62]

(04-04-2017, 04:45 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(04-03-2017, 10:09 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   What's good for the goose is good for the gander.  It is for no
>   reason the US also suffers blowback from meddling in that
>   hellhole, the Mideast. So may it be, let there in the future any
>   crap about human rights, oil, whatever fall on deaf ears here in
>   the US. It's time to stop the insanity of doing the same thing
>   over and over again. US out of the Mideast.  

This is not going to happen.

For example, I just heard Democratic senator Jane Harmon say
that America has an obligation to help the Syrian people, after
today's horrific chemical weapons attack by Bashar al-Assad.

Other people would point out that America has an obligation to defend
Israel, as the Mideast's only democracy.

As I wrote last year, there are a lot of people, in America and in the
world, who believe in American Exceptionalism, and who truly believe
that America has a moral obligation, or even an obligation dictated by
God, to do the right thing, and they would not consider staying out of
the Mideast as the way to do the right thing.

1. Yes, the US can continue its current path and incur more blowback.  What is needed is a political discussion as to whether the Mideast is worth a future spate of terrorism.  After all, terror attacks can be used as a ready excuse to pour yet more money into the MIC black hole.

2. Israel just needs to grow up and look after itself. Sorry, but I personally feel no obligation to keep feeding money into that money pit.

3. American Exceptional-ism is just an excuse to continue the Empire Project. I have different priorities. US infrastructure is a joke. Money needs to be shifted from the Empire Project to there and also a decent health care system. Like I mentioned elsewhere, I think the DOD budget can easily be cut by 2/3.

4. People who support assorted humanitarian military causes are deluded fools. Sorry, but  here's a song I dedicated to said fools. US - meet your cold, dark future if ya don't turn back.

lyrics Wrote:The sun don't shine
The moon don't move the tides,
to wash me clean
Sun don't shine
The moon don't move the tides,
to wash me clean
Why so unforgiving and why so cold
Been a long time crossing Bridge of Sighs
Cold wind blows
The Gods look down in anger,
on this poor child
Cold wind blows
And Gods look down in anger,
on this poor child
Why so unforgiving and why so cold
Been a long time crossing Bridge of Sighs

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Apr-17 World View -- With Venezuela's Socialism spiraling into chaos, NY Times blames the mess on 'populism'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela's Socialist government in political crisis as street violence grows
  
• Organization of American States (OAS) approves scathing condemnation of Venezuela
  
• NY Times blames Venezuela's chaos on 'populism' not Socialism
  

****
**** Venezuela's Socialist government in political crisis as street violence grows
****


Venezuelan opposition lawmaker Juan Requesens after being bloodied by a Maduro supporter (AP)

A march mon Monday by members of Venezuela's National Assembly who
were opposed to president Nicolás Maduro's Socialist government was
met by men with sticks and rocks by Socialist supporters.

On Tuesday, Venezuelan police attacked protesters with tear gas, water
cannons and pepper spray. The clashes began after the authorities
closed subway stations, set up checkpoints and cordoned off a square
where opponents had planned their latest protest against the Socialist
government and a crippling economic crisis.

The protests were triggered by a decision last week by the
Maduro-controlled Supreme Court to effectively dissolve the National
Assembly and take over its legislative powers, effectively making
Maduro a dictator.

Maduro is in control of the presidency, the army, the media, and the
courts. The National Assembly was the only body that expressed any
opposition to Maduro. Maduro has repeatedly used the courts to
reverse any legislative decisions that he didn't like, but this time
he was going to eliminate the legislative branch completely.

Maduro has been jailing bakers because there's a bread shortage, and
has been jailing factory workers because there's shortage of milk,
rice, flour, ketchup, diapers, and toilet paper. It seemed that
Maduro could get away with anything. So it was to everyone's surprise
that Maduro's latest move generated worldwide outrage, even from some
normally compliant mainstream media sources. Even Maduro's attorney
general Luisa Ortega Diaz was opposed to the latest move.

The international opposition caused Venezuela's Supreme Court to
reverse the decision on Saturday, but the crisis has continued because
it triggered violence in the streets. There were thousands of people
on both sides, pro- and anti-Maduro, in a situation where anger is
increasing between the "haves" supporting Maduro and the "have-nots"
opposed to Maduro. Reuters and Washington Post and Venezuelanalysis

Related Articles

• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  
  
• Venezuela's Socialist government arrests bakers because of bread shortage (20-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners (15-May-2016)
  

****
**** Organization of American States (OAS) approves scathing condemnation of Venezuela
****

The Organization of American States (OAS) approved on Monday
overwhelmingly approved a resolution demanding that Venezuela restore
full constitutional authority to the National Assembly.

However, that decision came at the end of two days of extraordinary
brinksmanship.

On April 1, Bolivia assumed the rotating Pro Tempore presidency of the
OAS. A meeting had been previously scheduled to discuss the Venezuela
situation, but Bolivia is one of the two closest allies to Venezuela's
Socialist government, the other one being Ecuador. So the first
action taken by the Bolivian representative was to cancel the meeting.

This infuriated other OAS members, led by Costa Rica and Mexico, so
they conducted what is being called an "institutional coup," and went
ahead with the cancelled meeting. Bolivia protested the move and
subsequently walked out of the meeting, joined by Venezuela, Nicaragua
and Ecuador.

There were 21 remaining countries at the meeting, and 17 nations
approved the resolution, with four abstentions: Dominican Republic,
Bahamas, Belize and El Salvador.

According to the text of the resolution:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"EXPRESSING our grave concern regarding the
> unconstitutional alteration of the democratic order in the
> Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and our continuous support for
> dialogue and negotiation to lead to a peaceful restoration of
> democratic order,
>
> [The OAS] DECLARES that: The decisions of the Supreme Court of
> Venezuela to suspend the powers of the National Assembly and to
> arrogate them to itself are inconsistent with democratic practice
> and constitute an alteration of the constitutional order of the
> Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Notwithstanding the recent
> revision of some elements of these decisions, it is essential that
> the Government of Venezuela ensures the full restoration of
> democratic order."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Pary Rodriguez, Bolivia's OAS representative, said that the resolution
is "totally illegal and arbitrary and don’t correspond to the norms of
international law." Latin American Herald Tribune and Panama Post and TeleSur

Related Articles

• Venezuela breaks diplomatic relations with Panama (08-Mar-2014)
  

****
**** NY Times blames Venezuela's chaos on 'populism' not Socialism
****

In a lengthy article that doesn't anywhere contain any form of the
world "Socialism," the New York Times blamed Venezuela's massive
economic crisis on populism, apparently to take a swipe at Donald
Trump.

According to the article:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"When Hugo Chávez took power in Venezuela nearly 20
> years ago, the leftist populism he championed was supposed to save
> democracy. Instead, it has led to democracy’s implosion in the
> country, marked this past week by an attack on the independence of
> its Legislature.
>
> Venezuela’s fate stands as a warning: Populism is a path that, at
> its outset, can look and feel democratic. But, followed to its
> logical conclusion, it can lead to democratic backsliding or even
> outright authoritarianism."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is really laughable. I remember, years ago, when I really
admired the NY Times, but since the 1980s it's move progressively
leftist, and today no longer reports news.

Socialism has led to disaster every time it's been tried. There have
been oceans of blood spilled in the name of Socialism in countries
like the Soviet Union, Cuba, North Korea and China. In fact,
Socialism has been such a disaster that every country has been forced
to abandon it, including the Soviet Union, Cuba, China, East Germany,
and so forth. North Korea hasn't abandoned it, and that whole country
is a disaster. Venezuela is headed the same way.

How stupid to you have to be to "believe" in Socialism when it's
failed spectacularly every time it's been tried, and has never been
successful - not even once?

Actually, as I've written several times in the past, it's pretty easy
to prove mathematically that Socialism always collapses.

In 1991, I visited a huge computer show in Hanover, Germany. It was a
special occasion because the Berlin Wall had just fallen, and East
Germans were visiting the show for the first time. "They're in a
state of shock," I was told. "They're still using punched card
equipment from the 1950s." Why had Communist East Germany gotten
stuck in the 1950s?

The same with Cuba, which is still using automobiles from the 1950s.

In medieval times, a feudal estate with a couple of hundred tenants
could be run on a Socialist basis, if the feudal lord desired. All
he'd need is one or two "regulators" to make sure that all prices were
fixed and all transactions follow the law.

But as the population grows exponentially, the number of transactions
grows exponentially faster, and so the number of "regulators" needed
becomes a larger and larger percentage of the population. By the time
you have a country with millions of people, every person would have to
be a "regulator" to make it work, and obviously that's impossible. So
that's why countries like East Germany, North Korea, Russia and Cuba
all got stuck in the 1950s until they gave up Socialism. NY Times and News Busters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros,
Organization of American States, OAS, Bolivia, Ecuador,
Costa Rica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic,
Bahamas, Belize, El Salvador, Pary Rodriguez,
Russia, North Korea, Cuba, East Germany, China

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

(04-05-2017, 11:20 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Well, Venezuela did not start out as an illiberal anti-democratic
> socialistic republic. It got that way after the Venezuelan people
> elected a series of populist demagogues. Once such scoundrels get
> elected, the existing political system might end up getting
> ruined. Wrecking balls and all that.

> (sarc)It can't happen here.( /sarc)

I believe what I'm saying is that Socialism provably can never work,
even when the leader is a "nice guy." I would respond to your comment
by saying that once Socialism starts failing, the people throw out the
nice guy and start turning to pro-Socialist populist demagogues who
promise to make it work by force. As Socialism continues to fail, the
demagogues become increasingly violent, until (*) Socialism collapses,
as in China, Russia, Cuba, East Germany, or (*) there's a massive
bloodbath, as in China's Great Leap Forward, or (*) you get something
like North Korea.

Can it happen here? Actually, I believe not, since we have
institutions that seem to have been working for 240 years, even
through a Civil War. Obama was certainly pushing the country onto the
Socialist path, but now his Socialist regulations are being reversed.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians
  
• President Trump declares that he's changed his mind about military action
  
• Marco Rubio says Trump's policy emboldened Bashar al-Assad
  
• John McCain and Lindsey Graham advocate cruise missiles and safe areas
  

****
**** President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians
****


In a very dramatic gesture, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley at the Security Council stands and displays picture of baby killed by nerve gas and excoriates Russia's ambassador for supporting al-Assad, saying, 'How many more children have to die before Russia cares?'

President Donald Trump on Wednesday made it clear that he's planning
some sort of action against Syria. Although he did not specify what
kind of action, saying that he didn't want to telegraph his plans, he
did imply that military action is planned.

The change of mind was triggered by a horrific chemical nerve gas
attack on Syrian civilians on Monday, indiscriminately killing dozens
of people. The pictures of children being killed apparently
particularly affected Trump. The nerve gas was delivered in bombs
warplanes, which could only have been warplanes from the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. After the nerve gas attack,
another missile attack struck the hospital where nerve gas attacks had
been taken, effectively putting the hospital out of service. There
was clearly an intent to kill as many people as possible, including
women and children.

Syrian state media denied that that Syria was responsible:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The government of the Syrian Arab republic
> categorically denies the allegations and false accusations about
> the use of poisonous, chemical weapons by the Syrian Arab army in
> Khan Sheikhoun region against Syrian civilians who are besieged by
> the armed terrorist groups as human shields there, Syria also
> affirms that the Syrian army doesn’t possess any kind of chemical
> weapons and it has not used them and it won’t use them in the
> future."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The above statement contains known lies. Syria has provably used
Sarin gas and chlorine gas in bombs in the past. No part of the above
statement is credible, in view of the evidence. ARA News (Syria) and SANA (Damascus)

Related Articles

• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons (20-Mar-2013)
  
  
• U.N. report contains calculations implicating Syria's regime (19-Sep-2013)
  

****
**** President Trump declares that he's changed his mind about military action
****

At a news conference on Tuesday, Trump commented on Monday's nerve gas
attack in Syria, explaining why he changed his mind:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Yesterday, a chemical attack -- a chemical attack
> that was so horrific, in Syria, against innocent people, including
> women, small children, and even beautiful little babies. Their
> deaths was an affront to humanity. These heinous actions by the
> Assad regime cannot be tolerate. ...
>
> Well, I think the Obama administration had a great opportunity to
> solve this crisis a long time ago when he said the red line in the
> sand. And when he didn’t cross that line after making the threat,
> I think that set us back a long ways, not only in Syria, but in
> many other parts of the world, because it was a blank threat. I
> think it was something that was not one of our better days as a
> country. ...
>
> I now have responsibility, and I will have that responsibility and
> carry it very proudly, I will tell you that. It is now my
> responsibility. It was a great opportunity missed. ...
>
> It crossed a lot of lines for me. When you kill innocent
> children, innocent babies -- babies, little babies -- with a
> chemical gas that is so lethal -- people were shocked to hear what
> gas it was -- that crosses many, many lines, beyond a red line.
> Many, many lines."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In 2013, Bashar al-Assad launched a Sarin gas attack against
civilians, after President Barack Obama has said that doing so would
"cross a red line." At that time, Trump tweeted the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"AGAIN, TO OUR VERY FOOLISH LEADER, DO NOT ATTACK
> SYRIA - IF YOU DO MANY VERY BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN & FROM THAT
> FIGHT THE U.S. GETS NOTHING!"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, Trump has now reversed those sentiments, and is blaming Obama
for not intervening in 2013. However, he's not calling it "a
flip-flop," instead ascribing it to flexibility:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I like to think of myself as a very flexible person.
> I don’t have to have one specific way, and if the world changes, I
> go the same way, I don’t change. Well, I do change and I am
> flexible, and I’m proud of that flexibility. And I will tell you,
> that attack on children yesterday had a big impact on me -- big
> impact. That was a horrible, horrible thing. And I’ve been
> watching it and seeing it, and it doesn’t get any worse than that.
>
> And I have that flexibility, and it’s very, very possible -- and I
> will tell you, it’s already happened that my attitude toward Syria
> and Assad has changed very much. And if you look back over the
> last few weeks, there were other attacks using gas. You’re now
> talking about a whole different level."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

He says that he will not reveal his plans, but implies that the plans
are military (as opposed to, say, sanctions):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Well, one of the things I think you’ve noticed about
> me is, militarily, I don’t like to say where I’m going and what I
> doing. And I watched past administrations say, we will attack at
> such and such a day at such and such an hour. ...
>
> I watched Mosul, where the past administration was saying, we will
> be attacking in four months. And I said, why are they doing that?
> Then a month goes by, and they say, we will be attacking in three
> months, and then two months, and then we will be attacking next
> week. And I’m saying, why are they doing that? And as you know,
> Mosul turned out to be a much harder fight than anyone thought,
> and a lot of people have been lost in that fight. I’m not saying
> I’m doing anything one way or the other, but I’m certainly not
> going to be telling you, as much as I respect you,
> John."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

White House

****
**** Marco Rubio says Trump's policy emboldened Bashar al-Assad
****

In the past, I've criticized President Obama for flip-flopping on his
"red line" statement. My point was not that military action should
have been pursued. My point was that Obama should never have made a
threat that he wasn't going to act upon, since flip-flopping only
emboldened Bashar al-Assad to commit worse atrocities.

Now Senator Marco Rubio is making a similar criticism of President
Trump. He's referring to recent statements by Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson that the Trump administration no longer plans to demand that
Bashar al-Assad step down.

According to Rubio:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"In this case now, we have very limited options and
> look, it's concerning that the Secretary of State, 72 hours ago or
> a week ago, last Friday, said that the future's up to the people
> in Syria on what happens with Assad. In essence almost nodding to
> the idea that Assad was gonna get to stay in some capacity.
>
> I don't think it's a coincidence that a few days later we see
> this."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Rubio's claim is quite plausible.

One might ask what al-Assad's motivation was for ordering Monday's
horrific nerve gas attack. It was so outrageous, and so likely to
backfire politically, that it really makes no sense.

Every time I write that Bashar al-Assad is psychopathic monster and
war criminal committing genocide against Sunni Muslims in Syria, I get
criticized by al-Assad acolytes and paid Russian trolls. But I don't
think that there's any doubt about this. Bashar al-Assad is the worst
war criminal so far this century, with a psychopathic desire to
exterminate all Sunni civilians. Nothing else can explain this insane
action.

Al-Assad has never agreed to the peace that was agreed a few months
ago in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Iran, Russia and Turkey. In fact,
he's never shown any interest in participating in any peace process.
I've pointed out many times, that al-Assad clearly has no intention of
doing anything but torturing, slaughtering, and exterminating as many
Sunni civilians as possible.

Al-Assad has apparently been controlling his urges for political
reasons for the last few months. Trump's previous reluctance for
military action in Syria, reaffirmed by Tillerson's claims that the US
would no longer demand that al-Assad step down have given a free
ticket to al-Assad to do anything he wanted, and like an alcoholic who
suddenly is told he can start drinking again, al-Assad suddently felt
freed to do whatever he wanted. I believe that that's what Rubio
meant, and I agree with it. International Business Times

****
**** John McCain and Lindsey Graham advocate cruise missiles and safe areas
****

Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham were interviewed on Fox News
on Wednesday evening. Although they were interviewed separately, they
made exactly the same points:

• Military action is required.
  
• Barack Obama is at fault for not solving this problem
  earlier.
  
• Cruise missiles should be used to disable al-Assad's air
  force.
  
• Safe zones should be set up so that Syrian refugees in Europe and
  America could return to Syria.

Here are the remarks of John McCain (my transcription):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Those are horrible, and I spoke to the president this
> morning. He's angry as he well should be , and he's consulting
> with his military leadership, as well as his Secretary of State,
> and I have some optimism that he will take some concrete action
> here.
>
> He is obviously, as we all are, appalled.
>
> Could I make two points. One, this is a legacy of Barack Obama.
> The last time this happened, Barack Obama said they crossed a red
> line, called me and Lindsey Graham down to the White House, and
> did NOTHING. You know, one thing worse than doing nothing is
> saying you're going to do something as the most powerful leader on
> earth, and doing nothing.
>
> So this is a legacy of Barack Obama, and it's been going on for
> the intervening four years. So what we need to do, we need to
> stop Bashar Assad's planes from flying. And we can do that
> easily. Just say don't fly, or you're gonna get shot down, and if
> you start operating out of the six bases that they have, we're
> going to crater your runways with cruise missiles and other
> weapons. 41:54
>
> But you can't fly because we're not gonna let you drop nerve gas.
> We're not gonna let you drop chlorine. We're not gonna let you
> drop barrel bombs.
>
> You know what barrel bombs are? They're large cylindical things
> filled with shrapnel. And they explode about 20 feet above the
> ground, and they indiscriminately kill people.
>
> He's got to be stopped from flying, and we can stop him easily,
> using our cruise missiles and other capabilities. and we'll tell
> the Russians, it's your guy, you can join us in stopping him from
> flying and committing these war crimes.
>
> Then I would have safe zones, and there's a lot of other things,
> but the first thing we gotta do is stop his ability to slaughter
> people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Here are the remarks of Lindsey Graham (my transcription):

> [indent]<QUOTE>QUESTION: "What should President Trump do to Syria?"
>
> GRAHAM: Destroy his air power and create a safe zone in Syria
> where this never happens again."
>
> QUESTION: "We'd have to bomb their airfields, right? There are
> Russian planes there."
>
> GRAHAM: "They should move them.
>
> Then I would make sure that the people in Idlib would never be
> bombed again by Assad. There would be safe havens where people
> could go back to Syria from Europe and the United States. Talk
> won't do it. This is a time for Pres Trump to show the world he's
> not President Obama.
>
> This is a horrible event out of which could come an opportunity to
> reset the Mideast, to establish his presidency as something
> different than Obama, to send a dictator to everyone in the world
> there's a new sheriff in town. And if he would actually hold
> Assad accountable and protect the innocent people of Syria, it
> would help us in Iran and North Korea and everywhere
> else."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
Iran and the West will be allies in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, and that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be pitted against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In
the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war,
pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic
groups against each other.

These predictions will come true with absolute certainty, and it would
have made no difference whether Trump or Hillary Clinton had been
elected president. The events of the last two days are a major step
forward along that trend line.

Related Articles

• Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad (08-Feb-2017)
  
  
• After Syria's so-called ceasefire, tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad (13-Feb-2017)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Furious UN envoy Staffan de Mistura excoriates Syria's Bashar al-Assad (19-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Barack Obama, Marco Rubio, Rex Tillerson,
John McCain, Lindsey Graham

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John J. Xenakis
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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[Ragnarök_62]

(04-05-2017, 10:29 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians
  
• President Trump declares that he's changed his mind about military action
  
• Marco Rubio says Trump's policy emboldened Bashar al-Assad
  
• John McCain and Lindsey Graham advocate cruise missiles and safe areas
  

****
**** President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians
****


In a very dramatic gesture, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley at the Security Council stands and displays picture of baby killed by nerve gas and excoriates Russia's ambassador for supporting al-Assad, saying, 'How many more children have to die before Russia cares?'


statement is credible, in view of the evidence.  ARA News (Syria) and SANA (Damascus)

Related Articles

• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons (20-Mar-2013)
  
  
• U.N. report contains calculations implicating Syria's regime (19-Sep-2013)
  

****
**** President Trump declares that he's changed his mind about military action
****

At a news conference on Tuesday, Trump commented on Monday's nerve gas
attack in Syria, explaining why he changed his mind:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"Yesterday, a chemical attack -- a chemical attack
>        that was so horrific, in Syria, against innocent people, including
>        women, small children, and even beautiful little babies.  Their
>        deaths was an affront to humanity.  These heinous actions by the
>        Assad regime cannot be tolerate. ...
>    
>        Well, I think the Obama administration had a great opportunity to
>        solve this crisis a long time ago when he said the red line in the
>        sand.  And when he didn’t cross that line after making the threat,
>        I think that set us back a long ways, not only in Syria, but in
>        many other parts of the world, because it was a blank threat.  I
>        think it was something that was not one of our better days as a
>        country. ...
>    
>        I now have responsibility, and I will have that responsibility and
>        carry it very proudly, I will tell you that.  It is now my
>        responsibility.  It was a great opportunity missed. ...
>    
>        It crossed a lot of lines for me.  When you kill innocent
>        children, innocent babies -- babies, little babies -- with a
>        chemical gas that is so lethal -- people were shocked to hear what
>        gas it was -- that crosses many, many lines, beyond a red line.
>        Many, many lines."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In 2013, Bashar al-Assad launched a Sarin gas attack against
civilians, after President Barack Obama has said that doing so would
"cross a red line."  At that time, Trump tweeted the following:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"AGAIN, TO OUR VERY FOOLISH LEADER, DO NOT ATTACK
>        SYRIA - IF YOU DO MANY VERY BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN & FROM THAT
>        FIGHT THE U.S. GETS NOTHING!"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, Trump has now reversed those sentiments, and is blaming Obama
for not intervening in 2013.  However, he's not calling it "a
flip-flop," instead ascribing it to flexibility:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"I like to think of myself as a very flexible person.
>        I don’t have to have one specific way, and if the world changes, I
>        go the same way, I don’t change.  Well, I do change and I am
>        flexible, and I’m proud of that flexibility.  And I will tell you,
>        that attack on children yesterday had a big impact on me -- big
>        impact.  That was a horrible, horrible thing.  And I’ve been
>        watching it and seeing it, and it doesn’t get any worse than that.
>    
>        And I have that flexibility, and it’s very, very possible -- and I
>        will tell you, it’s already happened that my attitude toward Syria
>        and Assad has changed very much.  And if you look back over the
>        last few weeks, there were other attacks using gas.  You’re now
>        talking about a whole different level."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

He says that he will not reveal his plans, but implies that the plans
are military (as opposed to, say, sanctions):

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"Well, one of the things I think you’ve noticed about
>        me is, militarily, I don’t like to say where I’m going and what I
>        doing.  And I watched past administrations say, we will attack at
>        such and such a day at such and such an hour. ...
>    
>        I watched Mosul, where the past administration was saying, we will
>        be attacking in four months.  And I said, why are they doing that?
>        Then a month goes by, and they say, we will be attacking in three
>        months, and then two months, and then we will be attacking next
>        week.  And I’m saying, why are they doing that?  And as you know,
>        Mosul turned out to be a much harder fight than anyone thought,
>        and a lot of people have been lost in that fight.  I’m not saying
>        I’m doing anything one way or the other, but I’m certainly not
>        going to be telling you, as much as I respect you,
>        John."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

White House

****
**** Marco Rubio says Trump's policy emboldened Bashar al-Assad
****

In the past, I've criticized President Obama for flip-flopping on his
"red line" statement.  My point was not that military action should
have been pursued.  My point was that Obama should never have made a
threat that he wasn't going to act upon, since flip-flopping only
emboldened Bashar al-Assad to commit worse atrocities.

Now Senator Marco Rubio is making a similar criticism of President
Trump.  He's referring to recent statements by Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson that the Trump administration no longer plans to demand that
Bashar al-Assad step down.

According to Rubio:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"In this case now, we have very limited options and
>        look, it's concerning that the Secretary of State, 72 hours ago or
>        a week ago, last Friday, said that the future's up to the people
>        in Syria on what happens with Assad. In essence almost nodding to
>        the idea that Assad was gonna get to stay in some capacity.
>    
>        I don't think it's a coincidence that a few days later we see
>        this."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Rubio's claim is quite plausible.

One might ask what al-Assad's motivation was for ordering Monday's
horrific nerve gas attack.  It was so outrageous, and so likely to
backfire politically, that it really makes no sense.

Every time I write that Bashar al-Assad is psychopathic monster and
war criminal committing genocide against Sunni Muslims in Syria, I get
criticized by al-Assad acolytes and paid Russian trolls.  But I don't
think that there's any doubt about this.  Bashar al-Assad is the worst
war criminal so far this century, with a psychopathic desire to
exterminate all Sunni civilians.  Nothing else can explain this insane
action.

Al-Assad has never agreed to the peace that was agreed a few months
ago in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Iran, Russia and Turkey.  In fact,
he's never shown any interest in participating in any peace process.
I've pointed out many times, that al-Assad clearly has no intention of
doing anything but torturing, slaughtering, and exterminating as many
Sunni civilians as possible.

Al-Assad has apparently been controlling his urges for political
reasons for the last few months.  Trump's previous reluctance for
military action in Syria, reaffirmed by Tillerson's claims that the US
would no longer demand that al-Assad step down have given a free
ticket to al-Assad to do anything he wanted, and like an alcoholic who
suddenly is told he can start drinking again, al-Assad suddently felt
freed to do whatever he wanted.  I believe that that's what Rubio
meant, and I agree with it.  International Business Times

****
**** John McCain and Lindsey Graham advocate cruise missiles and safe areas
****

Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham were interviewed on Fox News
on Wednesday evening.  Although they were interviewed separately, they
made exactly the same points:

• Military action is required.
  
• Barack Obama is at fault for not solving this problem
  earlier.
  
• Cruise missiles should be used to disable al-Assad's air
  force.
  
• Safe zones should be set up so that Syrian refugees in Europe and
  America could return to Syria.
  

Here are the remarks of John McCain (my transcription):

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"Those are horrible, and I spoke to the president this
>        morning.  He's angry as he well should be , and he's consulting
>        with his military leadership, as well as his Secretary of State,
>        and I have some optimism that he will take some concrete action
>        here.
>    
>        He is obviously, as we all are, appalled.
>    
>        Could I make two points.  One, this is a legacy of Barack Obama.
>        The last time this happened, Barack Obama said they crossed a red
>        line, called me and Lindsey Graham down to the White House, and
>        did NOTHING.  You know, one thing worse than doing nothing is
>        saying you're going to do something as the most powerful leader on
>        earth, and doing nothing.
>    
>        So this is a legacy of Barack Obama, and it's been going on for
>        the intervening four years.  So what we need to do, we need to
>        stop Bashar Assad's planes from flying.  And we can do that
>        easily.  Just say don't fly, or you're gonna get shot down, and if
>        you start operating out of the six bases that they have, we're
>        going to crater your runways with cruise missiles and other
>        weapons.  41:54
>    
>        But you can't fly because we're not gonna let you drop nerve gas.
>        We're not gonna let you drop chlorine.  We're not gonna let you
>        drop barrel bombs.
>    
>        You know what barrel bombs are?  They're large cylindical things
>        filled with shrapnel.  And they explode about 20 feet above the
>        ground, and they indiscriminately kill people.
>    
>        He's got to be stopped from flying, and we can stop him easily,
>        using our cruise missiles and other capabilities.  and we'll tell
>        the Russians, it's your guy, you can join us in stopping him from
>        flying and committing these war crimes.
>    
>        Then I would have safe zones, and there's a lot of other things,
>        but the first thing we gotta do is stop his ability to slaughter
>        people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Here are the remarks of Lindsey Graham (my transcription):

>        [indent]<QUOTE>QUESTION: "What should President Trump do to Syria?"
>    
>        GRAHAM: Destroy his air power and create a safe zone in Syria
>        where this never happens again."
>    
>        QUESTION: "We'd have to bomb their airfields, right?  There are
>        Russian planes there."
>    
>        GRAHAM: "They should move them.
>    
>        Then I would make sure that the people in Idlib would never be
>        bombed again by Assad.  There would be safe havens where people
>        could go back to Syria from Europe and the United States.  Talk
>        won't do it.  This is a time for Pres Trump to show the world he's
>        not President Obama.
>    
>        This is a horrible event out of which could come an opportunity to
>        reset the Mideast, to establish his presidency as something
>        different than Obama, to send a dictator to everyone in the world
>        there's a new sheriff in town.  And if he would actually hold
>        Assad accountable and protect the innocent people of Syria, it
>        would help us in Iran and North Korea and everywhere
>        else."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
Iran and the West will be allies in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, and that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be pitted against the US, India, Russia and Iran.  In
the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war,
pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic
groups against each other.

These predictions will come true with absolute certainty, and it would
have made no difference whether Trump or Hillary Clinton had been
elected president.  The events of the last two days are a major step
forward along that trend line.

Related Articles

• Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad (08-Feb-2017)
  
  
• After Syria's so-called ceasefire, tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad (13-Feb-2017)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Furious UN envoy Staffan de Mistura excoriates Syria's Bashar al-Assad (19-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Barack Obama, Marco Rubio, Rex Tillerson,
John McCain, Lindsey Graham

<snip>

Well, well, a whole cabal of war mongers seems to be there.  So, Rags knows the end result.  [IS,Al Queda, or anarchy]  lurk in the future for the area known as "Syria". Lots of emotions, but no forethought as to the ramifications of whatever the US decides to do. So, how many fuck ups need to happen before the US gets the idea that really, really bad results come after so called humanitarian interventions? Qod, I wish Saudi Arabia would just fucking run out of oil so that Qod forsaken place just goes to utter shit and camels become the main means of transportation. It's obvious, man. Anything McStain and Graham Cracker endorse is just stupid. Rags does not get upset with "humanitarian fuckups" because that's the natural state of tacky,tacky humans. Oh, wait, Marco Rube and Nikki Staley joined that choir.   Einstein was right, there's no limit to the amount of human stupidity in this universe.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-05-2017, 11:39 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Well, well, a whole cabal of war mongers seems to be there. So,
> Rags knows the end result. [IS,Al Queda, or anarchy] lurk in the
> future for the area known as "Syria". Lots of emotions, but no
> forethought as to the ramifications of whatever the US decides to
> do. So, how many fuck ups need to happen before the US gets the
> idea that really, really bad results come after so called
> humanitarian interventions? Qod, I wish Saudi Arabia would just
> fucking run out of oil so that Qod forsaken place just goes to
> utter shit and camels become the main means of
> transportation. It's obvious, man. Anything McStain and Graham
> Cracker endorse is just stupid. Rags does not get upset with
> "humanitarian fuckups" because that's the natural state of
> tacky,tacky humans. Oh, wait, Marco Rube and Nikki Staley joined
> that choir. Einstein was right, there's no limit to the amount of
> human stupidity in this universe.

What's happening in the Mideast could neither be caused nor prevented
by any American politicians, or any politicians, but instead are
coming about because of powerful generational forces that cannot be
controlled.

After you've listened to Metallica, here's something else to put you
in the mood for what's happening:

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Apr-17 World View -- Philippines president Duterte orders military to occupy South China Sea islands

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• President Trump orders missile strikes on Bashar al-Assad's Syria
  
• Philippines president Duterte orders military to occupy South China Sea islands
  
• Philippines sends warship to Benham Rise to protect from China
  

****
**** President Trump orders missile strikes on Bashar al-Assad's Syria
****


A diver checks out the coral cover during an expedition at Benham Rise last May 2016. (Oceana Philippines)

As I'm writing this on Thursday evening, American ships in the eastern
Mediterranean Sea have launched dozens of cruise missiles at the
Shayrat Airbase in Syria. This airbase was chosen because it's
believed that Monday's nerve gas attack was launched from this
airbase. The attack appears to the following the outline that I
described in yesterday's article,

though it apparently caught some analysts by surprise that the
military action occurred so quickly after the nerve gas attack. It's
not expected that this will be followed by a long series of further
military actions. Washington Post

Related Articles

• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians (06-Apr-2017)
  

****
**** Philippines president Duterte orders military to occupy South China Sea islands
****

Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte on Thursday ordered the army
to deploy troops to "nine or 10" unoccupied islands and reefs in the
Spratly Islands in the South China Sea that are owned or claimed by
the Philippines. According to his televised announcement

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The unoccupied, which our ours, let’s live on it. It
> looks like everybody is making a grab for the islands there, so we
> better live on those that are still vacant.
>
> At least, let us get what is ours now and make a strong point
> there that it is ours.
>
> “We try to be friends with everybody, but we have to maintain our
> jurisdiction, at least [in] the areas that we control I have
> ordered the armed forces to occupy all these islands and put up
> the Philippine flag to occupy all these. ...
>
> This coming Independence Day [June 12], I may go to Pagasa to raise
> the flag. We want to make a strong point that that is
> ours."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Duterte also said "bunkers or houses and provisions for habitation"
were to be built. Analysts are pointing out that this cannot be
accomplished, because the islands and reefs are too small. For that
reason, some analysts are speculating Duterte would like to initiate
reclamation activities to create artificial islands, as the Chinese
have been doing, although that kind of reclamation is probably too
expensive for the Philippines budget.

China has not yet commented on Duterte's order, but is certain to
express the usual furious outrage. China has claimed the entire South
China Sea as its sovereign territory, and has built artificial islands
and military bases. However, these claims and activities that were
declared illegal in a harsh ruling by the United Nations Permanent
Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague, in a case brought by the
Philippines. Daily Inquirer (Manila) and Reuters and Washington Post

Related Articles

• China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal (19-Feb-2017)
  
  
• China preparing to install long-range missiles in South China Sea (23-Feb-2017)
  
  
• US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats (31-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Philippines sends warship to Benham Rise to protect from China
****

Benham Rise is not in the South China Sea, but is east of the
Philippines, and part of the country's continental shelf. According
to Philippines' defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The navy will henceforth regularly patrol Benham Rise
> partly due to past Chinese activities there but more importantly,
> because it is part of our continental shelf and awarded to us by
> the United Nations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In 2012, the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the
Continental Shelf confirmed that Benham Rise is part of the
Philippines' continental shelf. Under the United Nations Convention on
the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the continental shelf comprises the
seabed and subsoil of the submarine areas 200 nautical miles (NM), or
370 kilometers, from a state's baselines.

According to Philippines media, China has been surreptitiously
exploring Benham Rise for several months, breaking international and
Philippine laws in scouring the seabed and waters without permission.
China claimed that vessels were there for "innocent passage," but
Chinese activities have turned out to have two objectives: First, to
determine possible submarine hiding areas for future submarine
warfare, and second, to determine through sound reflection and
refraction possible oil and gas.

China's activities in Benham Rise have incited a public furor, and may
be the reason for Duterte's orders to the army to occupy South China
Sea islands. Philippine Star and The Rappler (Philippines)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Shayrat Airbase,
Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte, South China Sea, Spratly Islands,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS,
China, Benham Rise, Delfin Lorenzana

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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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