Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Nov-16 World View -- Sri Lanka Sinhalese Buddhist monks accused of racist hate speech against Hindu Tamils

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sri Lanka Sinhalese Buddhist monks accused of racist hate speech against Hindu Tamils
  
• Sri Lanka says that '32 élite, well-educated Muslims' have joined ISIS in Syria
  

****
**** Sri Lanka Sinhalese Buddhist monks accused of racist hate speech against Hindu Tamils
****


Image grab from video shows Buddhist monk using racist language to a Hindu Tamil civil servant, while policeman looks on and does nothing

Sri Lanka's bloody generational crisis civil war between the
market-dominant mostly Buddhist ethnic Sinhalese and the mostly Hindu
ethnic Tamils ended in May 2009, and in the seven years since then,
the country has been devoted to achieving reconciliation between the
two ethnic groups.

So a number of people in both groups are alarmed at the sudden
occurrences of racist hate speech by Buddhist monks against Tamils.
One video that's gone viral shows a Buddhist monk using extreme racist
expletives and abusive language to verbally assault and threaten a
Tamil public servant, as a (presumably Sinhalese) uniformed police
officer watched, without taking action.

In another incident, a Buddhist leader threatened a "bloodbath" in
protest over the arrest of a self-proclaimed "Savior of the
Sinhalese."

However, the racist attacks are apparently more ethnically than
religiously motivated, as Christian Tamils are also being targeted, as
well as Hindu Tamils and Muslim Tamils. More than 70 percent of Sri
Lanka's 20 million people are Buddhists, about 13 percent are Hindu,
while Muslims make up around 10 percent.

A joint civil society submission to the Committee on the Elimination
of Racial Discrimination in August 2016 documented 132 incidents faced
by Christians and 141 incidents against the Muslims, in a span of one
year, since 2015. These incidents include attacks on places of
religious worship, and minority religious communities being disrupted
during times of worship and prayer. Even worse, no attempt has been
made to prosecute the offenders.

According to Father S. J. Emmanuel, president of the Global Tamil
Forum, the attacks are signs of increasing Sinhalese nationalism by
Buddhist monks:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"While the Sri Lankan Constitution clearly guarantees
> all citizens the right to equality, non-discrimination and freedom
> of religion and religious worship, the number of attacks against
> religious and ethnic numerical minorities across Sri Lanka, by
> ethno-nationalist majoritarian groups, typically led by one or
> more Buddhist monks, remains unchecked. Civil society groups have
> consistently documented and reported such attacks to relevant
> authorities. However, charges have never been brought against the
> perpetrators, despite the conduct of these monks being in clear
> violation of hate-speech and anti-discrimination protections under
> Sri Lankan law."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Both Christian and Hindu Tamil groups have called on the government to
bring to justice all those in violation of Sri Lanka’s
anti-discrimination and hate-speech laws, including Buddhist monks.
This is not very likely to happen.

Sri Lanka is in a generational Recovery era, following the end of the
civil war. This is a period of austerity when rules and institutions
are devised by the survivors of the civil war to make sure nothing
like it ever happens again. These rules and institutions survive for
several decades until the Unraveling era, when younger generations
have come to power, and the generations that survived the war are no
longer running things.

These racist attacks by Buddhist Sinhalese against Hindu and Christian
Tamils are the first signs of what's to come in few years, when the
first postwar generation comes of age, in the generational Awakening
era. Sunday Leader (Colombo, Sri Lanka) and The Hindu (India) and The Island (Colombo)

****
**** Sri Lanka says that '32 élite, well-educated Muslims' have joined ISIS in Syria
****

Sri Lanka's justice minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe says that 32 Sri
Lankan Muslim have traveled to Syria to join the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). According to Rajapakshe:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"All these (Muslims) are not from ordinary
> families. These people are from the families which are considered
> as well-educated and élite.
>
> There is a greater fear among the public about ISIS. If somebody
> tries to spread extremism in this country, we will not allow for
> that from today. The law of this country is no different to
> Buddhist monks or ordinary people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, the Muslim Council of Sri Lanka (MCSL) strongly objected to
this statement, saying that the referenced incidents occurred over a
year ago:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We strongly object to this misplaced statement. The
> facts given by the Minister were reported in the media more than a
> year ago when a Sri Lankan combatant died fighting with ISIS.
>
> There have been no new reports of any others getting involved
> since this was reported last year.
>
> It is believed that one family had gone to Syria to provide
> humanitarian support to the war wounded and refugees. Some of the
> men are alleged to have joined or forced to join the fighting
> forces of ISIS. The Muslim community, including the Muslim
> Council, Jamiathul Ulema and other organizations cooperated with
> the government in identifying the families to provide the
> necessary support for the intelligence agencies to
> investigate."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to the MCSL, Sri Lanka is unlike other countries in that Sri
Lanka Muslims have been condemning un-Islamic comments by Muslims, and
there are no madrassas "indoctrinating its children with
fundamentalism."

This is entirely believable, and a credible contrast to Muslims in
northern Africa, the Mideast and southeast Asia. All of those
countries are in generational Crisis eras, with their last
generational crisis war having been World War II or earlier, and so
the popular mood in those countries is highly nationalistic and
xenophobic toward non-Muslims or even Muslims in other branches (i.e.,
Sunni versus Shia).

But Sri Lanka is in a generational Recovery era, having just gone
through an extremely bloody civil war that encompassed Buddhists,
Hindus and Christians as well as Muslims. The population is war weary
and eager to apply "lessons learned" from the civil war, creating laws
and institutions to guarantee that no such horror will ever happen
again. There will always be exceptions, but for the time being,
Muslims in Sri Lanka are not jihadists and are not supportive of
jihadists, as they are in the other 80 or so countries that sent young
men and women to Syria to fight the genocidal actions of Bashar
al-Assad. As years and decades go by, and new generations come of
age, this attitude will change, of course, but right now there are few
people who want to thwart the country's attempt at reconciliation.
Reuters and New Indian Express

Related Articles

• Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war (17-May-2009)
  
  
• Tamil Tigers renounce violence, to join Sri Lanka political process (25-May-2009)
  
  
• Sri Lanka has deep split with U.N. on war crimes report (23-Apr-2011)
  
  
• Sri Lanka follows a predictable pattern after its civil war (15-Jan-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka, Sinhalese, Buddhists,
Tamils, Hindus, Christians, Muslims, Father S. J. Emmanuel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, Muslim Council of Sri Lanka, MCSL

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Nov-16 World View -- Bizarre monkey attack triggers tribal war in Jabha in southern Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bizarre monkey attack triggers tribal war in Jabha in southern Libya
  
• Tribal warfare in southern Libya could destabilize all of Libya
  

****
**** Bizarre monkey attack triggers tribal war in Jabha in southern Libya
****


Map of Libya, showing regions occupied by different ethnic groups (Al-Araby)

Clashes between two rival tribes in Sabha in southern Libya, killing
dozens of people and wounding over 100, was triggered by a bizarre
incident involving a monkey.

A monkey belonging a shopkeeper attacked a group of schoolgirls
passing by, bit and scratched some, and pulled her headscarf off one
girl's head. The shopkeeper was from the Gaddadfa tribe, which is the
tribe of former Libyan dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi.

The schoolgirls are from the Awlad Suleiman tribe. After the
incident, men from the Awlad Suleiman tribe killed the monkey and
three people from the Gaddadfa tribe, the shopkeeper and his family
according to some reports.

Fighting then escalated between the two tribes to involve tanks,
mortars, shells and rockets, and has continued for several days. By
Sunday there were still sporadic clashes.

During the 2011 Libyan war that resulted in the overthrow and death of
Muammar al-Gaddafi, Sabha was the heart of al-Gaddafi's support base,
which consisted mainly of the Gaddadfa tribe in Jabha and Sirte, as
well as the Warfalla and Merghara tribes from other regions. Al-Araby and Information Nigeria

****
**** Tribal warfare in southern Libya could destabilize all of Libya
****

The region around Sabha is heavily populated by two Arab tribes, the
Gaddadfa tribe and the Awlad Suleiman tribe. Also in the region are
two non-Arab nomadic Berber ethnic minorities, the Tuareg and Tubu
tribes, that are spread across Africa from Libya to the Algeria.

Muammar Gaddafi was successful in manipulating these tribes to his own
advance, but since their disappearance there has been a power
struggle, leading to frequent outbreaks of violence across Libya’s
south. Groups are competing to control borders, strategic assets
(such as energy infrastructure and roads), and the formal and informal
economy.

The main tensions are between the Arab (Gaddadfa, Awlad Suleiman) and
non-Arab (Tuareg, Tubu) tribes. The non-Arab tribes generally have
much darker skin than the Arab tribes, and were discriminated against
by the Arabs when al-Gaddafi was in power. Since his overthrow, and
the end of many border controls, the non-Arab tribes have been moving
into other areas, causing increased tensions with the Arab tribes,
with clashes erupting among and between the Arab and non-Arab tribes.

The media have been focusing mainly on northern Libya, including
cities like Tripoli and Benghazi. But a war among tribes in the south
could quickly spread to the north, and even to other countries.
Al-Araby (24-Nov-2015) and West Point Combating Terrorism Center (10-Dec-2014)

Related Articles

• UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention (15-Sep-2016)
  
  
• A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention (02-Mar-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Sabha, Muammar al-Gaddafi,
Gaddadfa, Awlad Suleiman, Warfalla, Merghara, Tuareg, Tubu,
Arab, Berber

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Nov-16 World View -- China puts army on high alert along border with Burma (Myanmar)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China puts army on high alert along border with Burma (Myanmar)
  
• Burma's army appears to be exterminating Rakhine State Rohingyas
  

****
**** China puts army on high alert along border with Burma (Myanmar)
****


Kachin soldiers in Burma praying

In October of last year, the government of Myanmar (Burma) concluded a
peace agreement with its armed ethnic groups that had been under
negotiation since 2011. According to the government rhetoric, the
agreement was "bringing hope" that the entire country would soon be
"at peace."

However, of the 15 armed ethnic groups in Burma, only eight attended
the lavish signing ceremony and signed the agreement. The others
indicated that they wished to continue fighting Burma's army.

Now three of the non-signers have launched a series of violent attacks
on military outposts and police stations across the northern part of
the country. Hundreds of people have been forced to flee their homes,
some crossing the border into China. The groups are:

• The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is the military wing of a
  population of ethnic Kachins in northern Myanmar. The Kachins are a
  coalition of at least six tribes whose homeland encircles territory in
  Yunnan in China and Northeast India, in addition to Kachin State in
  Myanmar.
  
  
• The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) is the armed wing of
  the Palaung State Liberation Front and promotes self-determination for
  the Ta’ang people living in Shan State, Yunnan and Northern
  Thailand.
  
  
• Kokang’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), is led
  by ethnic-Chinese commander Peng Jiasheng and is an active insurgent
  group in the Chinese-speaking Kokang region, an area in the northern
  part of Shan State on the border with Yunnan.

The conflicts have resulted in a central part of the country dominated
by the majority Burmese, surrounded by various ethnic minority
populations who form the majority in their own areas. Most of
Myanmar’s ethnic groups are now concentrated within particular regions
corresponding more or less to the states named after the seven ethnic
nationalities: Karen, Kachin, Mon, Arakanese, Karenni, Chin and Shan.

China's defense ministry issued a statement saying, "The Chinese army
is on high alert and will take the necessary measures to safeguard the
country's sovereignty and safety, as well as protect the lives and
property of Chinese citizens living along the border."

China has not intervened in the Burma conflicts, but might do so if
Chinese citizens, in either Burma or China, were threatened. There
have at least nine deaths and dozens of wounded.

Following World War II, Burma experienced a series of extremely bloody
crisis civil wars that only climaxed in 1958 when the army took over
power. There has been sporadic fighting among these groups in the
decades since then, but nothing that has escalated into a major war.

But now, 58 years after the climax of the last generational crisis
war, Burma is entering a new generational Crisis era. 58 years is the
point where the generations of survivors of the last crisis war lose
enough of their power (through death or retirement) so that they can
no longer influence events enough to prevent a new generational crisis
war, and so a major new war could break out now or at any time in the
future. South China Morning Post and International Business Times and Radio Free Asia

Related Articles

• Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement (15-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Burma (Myanmar) approves birth control law targeting Rohingya Muslims (24-May-2015)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  

****
**** Burma's army appears to be exterminating Rakhine State Rohingyas
****

As we recently reported,
Burma's
army is conducting a scorched earth attack on Rohingya Muslims in
Rakhine state. As of a week ago, over 430 buildings had been burned
down. Now, Human Rights Watch has released new satellite photos
showing that 1,000 homes have been burned down, almost all in Rohingya
villages, many of which no longer exist. Dozens of people have been
killed, and at least 300,000 people have been forced to leave their
homes, with many fleeing into Bangladesh. Witnesses and alleged
victims also accused soldiers of widespread rape.

Burma's government has completely closed off the entire region,
refusing to allow reporters or investigators to see for themselves
what has happened. Furthermore, the government is saying that
thousands of Rohingyas have burned down their own homes. I must
admit, Dear Reader, that hearing crap like this from government
officials really infuriates me. But it's what we've come to expect
from leaders like Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin, Robert Mugabe, and
Pierre Nkurunziza. AFP and BBC and Deutsche Welle

Related Articles

• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Communal violence grows in Myanmar (Burma) between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims (16-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia (16-May-2015)
  
  
• Burma (Myanmar) declares state of emergency over Buddhist/Muslim violence (11-Jun-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, China,
Kachin Independence Army, KIA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, TNLA,
Kokang’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA, Peng Jiasheng,
Rakhine State, Rohingya, Bangladesh

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Nov-16 World View -- Cameroon: One person killed in English-speaking vs French-speaking civil unrest

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cameroon: One person killed in English-speaking vs French-speaking civil unrest
  
• Activists call for independence of English-speaking Cameroon
  

****
**** Cameroon: One person killed in English-speaking vs French-speaking civil unrest
****


Protests in Bamenda on Monday (RFI)

Reports indicate that there was at least one death on Monday in
clashes between English-speaking (Anglophone) protesters and police,
during protests of discrimination and marginalization by the
French-speaking (Francophone) majority.

Thousands of Anglophone Cameroonians brought coffins to protests to
the city of Bamenda, proclaiming that they were ready to die and be
burned in their coffins. Security forces fired tear gas and live
bullets to disperse the demonstrators. The amount of violence has
been a surprise, causing some to worry of a government crackdown
leading to genocide. The 1994 Rwanda genocide is in the minds of
the Cameroon people, as it is in the minds of all Africans.

Monday's demonstrations were by Anglophone teachers who were
protesting that the government was deploying Francophone teachers
teach the French language in Anglophone areas of Cameroon.

The teachers' demonstrations followed demonstrations by Anglophone
lawyers in Bamenda two weeks ago to protest that the legal and court
systems are biased toward Francophones, with many laws passed without
even being translated into English. That demonstration was dispersed
by security forces using tear gas. Cameroon Concord and Radio France Internationale (RFI) and International Business Times (London)

****
**** Activists call for independence of English-speaking Cameroon
****


Cameroon, highlighting the English-speaking Southern Cameroons (Nebafuh)

In the 15th century, Portuguese explorers named the area near the
mouth of the Wouri River the Rio dos Camaroes (River of Prawns) after
the abundant shrimp in the water. Over time the designation became
Cameroon in English. This is the only instance where a country is
named afer a crustacean.

During the "Scramble for Africa" in the late 1800s, Cameroon became a
colony of Germany. However, during World War I, Britain and France
forced Germany out of the territory, and created two regions, British
Cameroon and French Cameroon.

The war for independence began in 1955 in French Cameroon.
Independence was won in 1960, with the Republic of Cameroon.

In 1961 British Cameroon, under a referendum sponsored by the United
Nations, was given the choice of joining either Nigeria or the
Republic of Cameroon. There was a split with the Northern part of
British Cameroon voting to join Nigeria, and the Southern part voting
to join the French speaking Cameroon. Overall, the latter won the
referendum. The former British Cameroon is now known as the "Southern
Cameroons" region of Cameroon, and is home to about 3.2 million
English-speaking people. This month's riots and demonstrations took
place in Bamenda, a city of 500,000, and the largest city in Southern
Cameroons.

During the generational Awakening era that followed, a separatist
movement called the Cameroon Anglophone Movement began in 1984. The
Southern Cameroons region is adjacent to the Biafra region of Nigeria,
and some activists would like to join the two into an independent
country. Of course, this is opposed by both the Cameroon and Nigeria
governments. International Business Times (27-Feb-2016) and Jacob Crawfurd (Copenhagen) and Nebafuh (activist) and CIA World Factbook

Related Articles

• Pakistan is suspended from the British Commonwealth of Nations (24-Nov-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Bamenda, Rio dos Camaroes,
British Cameroon, French Cameroon, Southern Cameroons,
Nigeria, Biafra

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Nov-16 World View -- How the First Thanksgiving led to American independence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The First Thanksgiving -- The Pilgrims meet the Wampanoag Indians
  
• The fur trade with Britain and Europe
  
• King Philip's war
  
• Aftermath of King Philip's War
  
• The Great Awakening of the 1730-40s
  
• The Revolutionary War -- 1772-1782
  
• Aftermath of the Revolutionary War
  

****
**** The First Thanksgiving -- The Pilgrims meet the Wampanoag Indians
****


The First Thanksgiving

In the year 1600, throughout what is now the United States, it's
estimated that there were some 2 million Indians within 600 tribes
speaking 500 languages. What happened, starting at that time, was a
"clash of civilizations" between European culture of the colonists and
the indigenous culture of the Indians. These cultures were so
different that haven't yet merged even today, inasmuch as many Indian
tribes still live separately on reservations. It's ironic that the
American "melting pot" has merged so many cultures, but has not yet
entirely merged the preexisting Native American cultures.

As with all tribes and ethnic groups in all places around the world,
there were undoubtedly many brutal wars among the 600 tribes of the
time. If there had never been any colonists, then the Indian tribes
would have fought wars of extermination with each other, and probably
today there would be one major tribe that was running the entire
country, with other smaller tribes marginalized and discriminated
against, perhaps even in reservations.

In this story, we're going to focus on just one Indian tribes: The
Wampanoag tribe that occupied what is now southeastern Massachusetts
(where Plymouth Rock is).

There is some historical evidence that there was a major war among the
Wampanoag tribe and the Narragansett tribe that occupied what is now
Rhode Island, and the Mohawk tribe (part of the Iroquois) of upstate
New York. This war occurred in the years preceding the colonists'
arrival at Plymouth Rock, probably in the 1590s. The Wampanoag and the
Narragansett tribes were particularly devastated and weakened by that
conflict.

So, when the pilgrims arrived at Plymouth Rock in 1620, in the midst
of the Wampanoag tribe during a generational Awakening era (like
America in the 1960-70s), the Indians were still war-weary, and were
quite friendly to the pilgrims. There were even some Indians who,
astonishingly, spoke English because they had been kidnapped by an
English sea captain and sold into slavery, but escaped in London. One
of them, Squanto, helped the pilgrims learn to hunt, fish and survive.

The pilgrims, led by Governor William Bradford, and the Wampanoags,
led by chief Massasoit, developed a warm relationship. In November
1621, after the successful corn harvest, they celebrated with a feast
now remembered as "America's First Thanksgiving."

Thanksgiving has been celebrated annually since then, and in 1863,
President Abraham Lincoln made it a national holiday.

****
**** The fur trade with Britain and Europe
****

The Pilgrims were committed to have nothing to do with the English
King and parliament. They had signed the Mayflower Compact, where
they agreed that they would be governed by the will of the majority.
They could provide for themselves, and they were friendly with the
Indians.

This friendliness extended to trade. Before long, there was a mutually
beneficial financial arrangement between the Indians and the
colonists. The colonists acted as intermediaries through whom the
Indians developed a thriving business selling furs and pelts to the
English and European markets, and they used the considerable money
they earned to purchase imported manufactured goods.

****
**** King Philip's war
****

By the 1660s, the Wampanoag tribal society had entered a generational
Crisis era, and relationships between the colonists and the Indians
began to deteriorate.

William Bradford had died in 1657, and Massasoit died in 1661. The
personal ties between these leaders had vanished, and younger
generations of colonists and Indians rose to power with personal
friendships replaced by mutual xenophobia.

A generational Crisis era is usually accompanied by a major financial
crisis -- that's certainly true in the world today. Things
really began to turn sour in the 1660s because styles and
fashions changed in England and in Europe. Suddenly, furs and pelts
went out of style, and the major source of revenue for the Indians
almost disappeared. This resulted in a financial crisis for the
Indians, and for the colonists as well, since they were the
intermediaries in sales to the Indians. Then and now, a financial
crisis only feeds into and increases xenophobia, racism and
nationalism, as different societies, races and nations blame each
other for the financial crisis.

Massasoit was replaced as Wampanoag chief by his youngest son,
Metacomet, who was nicknamed "King Philip" by the colonists.
Relations between King Philip and the colonists worsened, and things
came to a head in 1671, when King Philip himself was tried for a
series of Indian hostilities, and required by the court to surrender
all of his arms. He complied by surrendering only a portion of them.

Relations continued to deteriorate, and King Philip's War began in
1675, with Philip's attack on the colonists on Cape Cod. The war was
extremely savage and engulfed the Indians and the colonists from Rhode
Island to Maine. There were atrocities on both sides, and the war
ended with King Philip's head displayed on stick. His wife and child
were sold into slavery.

This was the most devastating war in American history on a percentage
basis, with 800 of the 52,000 colonists killed. (It was devastating
for the Indians as well.)

****
**** Aftermath of King Philip's War
****

After the devastating, people began to ask: Why weren't English
soldiers here to defend us?

That brings us back to the Mayflower Compact, signed in 1620, which
guaranteed that local government would be independent of the English
Crown. The colonists had thought they would build their new community
without outside interference, with their own rules and their own
self-government.

After the devastation of King Philip's war, they felt forced to
acquiesce completely to English rule. All home rule was dissolved and
Governors would be appointed from London. British troops would
protect the colonists from the Indians and the French, and colonists
would pay taxes to the Crown in return.

****
**** The Great Awakening of the 1730-40s
****

Anyone who was around during America's Awakening era of the 1960s and
1970s will recall the "televangelists" -- people like Herbert
W. Armstrong, Jim and Tammy Faye Bakker, Jerry Falwell, Jimmy
Swaggart, Pat Robertson, Oral Roberts, and dozens of others.

A similar thing happened in the 1730s-40s. Historians have named this
period "The Great Awakening in American history," and in fact the
phrase "generational Awakening era" was derived from this historical
name.

Just as America's youthful Boomers were rebelling against their
parents in the 1960s, the colonists' young generations in the 1730s
were rebelling against everything English, including the Church of
England, known as the Anglican Church in the colonies.

The issue of government by the English Crown was a divisive issue at
that time. The older generations had ceded power to London in return
for the protection of the English army. The younger generations
rebelled against giving all this power to the Crown.

The Anglican Church never did have much success in establishing
religious control in the colonies, as congregations of Puritans,
Presbyterians, Congregationalists, Baptists, Quakers and many other
religions sprang up in the colonies from the beginning, and had to
compete with one another for followers.

Starting in the 1730s, something brand new came about -- something we
recognize today in the form of "televangelists." Various preachers
went from city to city, telling thousands of rapt listeners that they
would be punished for their sinfulness, but could be saved by the
mercy of an all-powerful God. To take one example, John Wesley, born
in 1703, created the Methodist religion, and traveled on horseback
throughout the country for years, stopping along the way to preach
three or four sermons each day.

The Great Awakening of the 1730s and 1740s was not just a religious
revival; it was also an act of rebellion against the older generation
that favored control by the British in return for protection. By
rejecting the Anglican Church, the young colonists were symbolically
rejecting British control.

****
**** The Revolutionary War -- 1772-1782
****

All the contradictions and compromises that were forced upon the
colonists following the devastation of King Philip's War came to a
head in the Revolutionary War. In particular, the taxes that England
had levied against the colonies to pay for protection from the Indians
and the French led to colonist demands for "No taxation without
representation!", the catchphrase for pre-Revolutionary days.

By the 1760s, the British were moving to consolidate their control
over America as a British colony. In particular, the Sugar Act and
Currency Act of 1764 were imposed in order to prevent the colonies
from trading with any foreign country except through England as an
intermediary. The Stamp Act of 1765 was enacted to recover at least a
fraction of the money England had to spend to maintain its military
forces in the colonies.

These moves by England hardly seem unreasonable. The colonies were
expensive children, and like a parent expecting his children to pay a
little rent, England had a right to expect the colonists to pay for a
portion of the cost of protecting them.

But the pressure for revolution had been building for a long time.
The Stamp Act was particularly galling. All printed documents,
including newspapers, broadsides and even legal documents, had to have
a stamp affixed, with the cost of the stamp being paid to England.

An underground terrorist group called the Sons of Liberty was formed.
This group used violence to terrorize Stamp Act agents and British
traders in numerous towns. However, violence was rare: colonial
opposition was designed to be non-violent. The colonies formed a
"Stamp Act congress" to call for repeal. English imports were
boycotted. The English sought to contain the problem and compromise.
As a result, the Stamp Act was repealed by 1766.

However, England was still trying to find a way to collect revenue
from the colonies without engendering riots, but they never
succeeded. In 1767, England passed the Townshend Acts, imposing
further taxes on goods imported to the colonies. Four more years of
increasingly virulent protests forced England to repeal the taxes in
1771.

There's no question that England was doing everything it could to
compromise and contain the situation. When occasional violence broke
out, it was contained. In the most well-known incident, the 1770
Boston Massacre, where British soldiers fired into a crowd and killed
five colonists, two of the soldiers were tried and convicted, and
tensions were relieved again.

By 1771, all taxes had been repealed except a tax on importation of
tea, and even that tax was often evaded. From a purely objective
view, the colonists really had few major grievances at this time.

However, a financial crisis occurred in July 1772, when the English
banking system suffered a major crash. Many colonial businesses were
in debt to the English banks, and were suddenly unable to obtain
further credit, forcing them to liquidate their inventories, thus
ending their businesses.

In May 1773, The English Parliament passed a new Tea Act, and in
December 1773, a group of Boston activists dumped 342 casks of English
tea into Boston Harbor.

The Boston Tea Party can hardly be called a major act of violence.
Tea was expensive, of course, 342 casks of English tea shouldn't have
been something to cause a war.

Nonetheless, the Boston Tea Party, has become world famous. It was so
electrifying at the time that it surprised and shocked both the
colonies and England. After that, one provocation after another on
both sides finally led to war.

The furious English Parliament passed a series of "Coercive Acts" to
dismantle the colonial Massachusetts government, close the port of
Boston, and control the hostilities. This was tantamount to a
declaration of war. With positions on both sides becoming
increasingly hardened, war was not far off.

Hostilities actually began in April 1775, when the colonial minutemen
attacked the British forces following the midnight ride of Paul
Revere. The separation became official on July 4, 1776, when the
Continental Congress endorsed the Declaration of Independence.

The war continued until November 30, 1782, when American and British
representatives signed a peace agreement recognizing American
independence.

****
**** Aftermath of the Revolutionary War
****

The end of the Revolutionary War didn't mean the end of the American
crisis. There were still grave doubts as to whether the Union could
survive. The colonies had formed a very weak Confederation, which
left each former colony largely autonomous, adopting its own
currencies, taxes, laws and rules. The economy suffered a major
recession in 1786, resulting in severe acts of terrorism by bankrupt
farmers and businessmen -- acts that couldn't be controlled since the
terrorists could not be pursued across state lines because there was
no federal army. The crisis did not end until 1790, after the
Constitution was ratified and George Washington became president.

A generational crisis war is so horrific that the survivors, both the
winners and losers, are willing to make compromises to make sure that
nothing like it happens again. The survivors of King Philip's War had
agreed to a compromise that allowed Britain to rule the colonies and
collect taxes in return for the protection of the British army. That
compromise became the issue that led to the next crisis war, the
Revolutionary War.

The Revolutionary War was also resolved with a major compromise -- one
that permitted slavery to exist in the South, though it was made
illegal in the Northern states. The slavery compromise was necessary
to create the nation in the first place. But it was also the seed
that grew into the issue that almost destroyed the nation in the next
generational crisis war -- the American Civil War.

Note: This material was adapted from Chapter 2 of my book,
Generational Dynamics - Forecasting America's Destiny, which is
available as a free PDF from my download page, http://generationaldynamics.com/download


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pilgrims, Wampanoag Indians,
Plymouth Rock, First Thanksgiving, Massasoit, William Bradford,
Metacomet, King Philip, King Philip's War, Mayflower Compact,
Church of England, Anglican Church, John Wesley, Methodists,
Puritans, Presbyterians, Congregationalists, Baptists, Quakers,
Great Awakening, Sons of Liberty, Stamp Act, Boston Massacre,
Tea Act, Boston Tea Party, Revolutionary War, Coercive Acts,
Paul Revere, Declaration of Independence, American Civil War

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Nov-16 World View -- Turkey furious at EU parliament's vote to end accession talks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Terrorist car bomb in southern Turkey kills two
  
• Turkey furious at EU parliament's vote to end accession talks
  

****
**** Terrorist car bomb in southern Turkey kills two
****


Aftermath of Thursday's car bombing in Adana in southern Turkey (AFP)

A terrorist car bomb attack on Thursday on a government building in
the city of Adana in southern Turkey killed at least two people and
wounded dozens of others. The bomber fled in another vehicle, but was
captured after police opened fire on the vehicle.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, but
Turkey has suffered numerous terrorist attacks in the last year,
perpetrated either by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is
recognized as a terror group by Turkey, the US and the EU or by the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Turkey responded with air force warplanes that destroyed a number of
PKK targets in southeastern Diyarbakir province in Turkey, the PKK
stronghold. Turkey's military said that six PKK members were killed,
and that Turkish soldiers seized weapons and explosive substances in a
warehouse following the airstrikes.

In addition to being targeted by numerous terror attacks, Turkey was
targeted by an attempted army coup with tanks and jet fighters on July
15 that left 246 people dead and more than 2,000 wounded.

The seeming endless bombings and other attacks on Turkey have
increased nationalist feelings and increased the popularity of
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Middle East Eye and AP

Related Articles

• Car bomb attack on military in Ankara Turkey kills 28 (18-Feb-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan eliminates more opposition in quest for power (06-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West (22-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Turkey furious at EU parliament's vote to end accession talks
****

The European Union parliament on Thursday voted overwhelmingly to call
for an end to EU's talks with Turkey to join the EU. The vote is
non-binding, and may be ignored by the people in Brussels who are
negotiating with Turkey.

Despite the symbolic nature of the vote, it has infuriated Turkish
officials and people, who see a European Union not only unsympathetic
to the coup attempt and repeated bloody terrorist attacks -- all of
which they believe would be completely intolerable to Europeans if the
same things occurred on EU soil -- but as even more sympathetic to the
coup plotters and terrorists than to Turkey.

Despite the coup attempt and terrorist violence in Turkey, many
Europeans have been appalled at the massive purge that Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pursuing -- arresting around
150 journalists, detaining more than 2,300 judges and prosecutors,
suspending or dismissing almost 130,000 public employees, and
arresting Kurdish members of parliament, accusing them of supporting
the PKK. And many people point to the fact that Erdogan shut down the
country's largest news organization, Zaman Media, months before the
coup attempt.

There has always been a fairly high level of mutual xenophobia between
Europeans and Turkey, some of it dating back to the days of the
Ottoman Empire. The negotiations for Turkey to join the European
Union, which began over ten years ago, have only increased the mutual
xenophobia, as the EU made set one condition after another that the
Turks considered unreasonable.

Within the last few weeks, Erdogan has suggested that Turkey might
reinstate the death penalty, which was lifted in 2003 as one of the
EU's conditions. Reinstating the death penalty would certainly kill
any chance of Turkey joining the EU, and Thursday's symbolic vote by
the European parliament may be considered a warning shot.

The EU needs Turkey as an ally for many reasons. One reason is the
EU-Turkey refugee deal, which has cut the number of Syrian, Iraqi and
Afghan refugees entering the EU by around 90%. That deal is now
hanging by a thread. Another reason is that the US and Nato need
Turkey's Incirlik air base for air operations in Syria.

Long-time readers are aware that Generational Dynamics predicts that
in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, the US will be allied
with India, Russia and Iran, while China will be allied with Pakistan
and the Sunni Muslim states, including Turkey. This prediction seemed
fanciful when I wrote about ten years ago, but we've seen it come true
step by step. The Barack Obama administration has been cozying up to
Iran, and now the Donald Trump administration appears poised to cozy
up to Russia. In the meantime, countries like Saudi Arabia and
Turkey, which used to be close allies, have become increasingly
distant from and hostile to the US. So the trend lines continue to
move in the direction of the ten-year-old prediction. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and VOA and Daily Sabah and Russia Today and Daily Sabah

Related Articles

• EU's expected scathing report on Turkey may scuttle refugee deal (09-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Increasing anger in Turkey threatens the EU-Turkey migrant deal (28-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media (06-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal (15-Jul-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Adana, Diyarbakir, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, European Union, Incirlik air base

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Nov-16 World View -- Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converge on a major military confrontation in al-Bab

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converging on a major military confrontation in al-Bab
  
• Syrian airstrike on Turkish forces threatens wider war
  

****
**** Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converging on a major military confrontation in al-Bab
****


Map showing forces converging on al-Bab in Syria (Yeni Safak)

In August, Turkey began "Operation Euphrates Shield," and became the
first Nato member to invade Syria since the beginning of the war that
began in 2011. Turkey has stated that there are two objectives -- to
fight the so-called Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) and force them to move south, and to fight Kurdish
People’s Protection Units (YPG), and force them to move back east
across the Euphrates River.

The main ground force in Operation Euphrates Shield is the Free Syrian
Army (FSA), backed by Turkish supplies and air power. Turkey's next
two objectives are to recapture the city of al-Bab from ISIS, and to
recapture the city of Manbij from the YPG.

As FSA militias move south towards al-Bab, it seems that a major
confrontation is developing. YPG forces are also moving towards
al-Bab to capture al-Bab from ISIS.

If Turkey-backed FSA forces take control of al-Bab, then the FSA
forces will be in a position to help break the siege in eastern
Aleppo, a city that the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad want destroy,
killing over 250,000 people, mostly innocent women and children.
Al-Assad has received worldwide condemnation for regime actions in
Aleppo as war crimes and crimes against humanity, so al-Assad does not
want to be stopped by the Free Syrian Army.

At the same time, FSA forces plan to move east and recapture
Manbij from the Kurds.

Turkey's Retired Lt. Gen. Ismail Hakki Pekin summarized the plans for
the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Operation Euphrates Shield was necessary, especially
> for TSK-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters, to prevent the
> establishment of a corridor [by terrorist PYD] near Kobani and the
> Afrin region. However, the operation must expand further south
> toward Manbij. Foremost, the operation must continue toward al-Bab
> before it moves toward Manbij, in order to prevent the corridor
> from being established to the south."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Operation Euphrates Shield appears to have slowed down substantially
near the al-Bab region. Retired military officer and security
specialist Abdullah Agar said that it's supposed to slow down because
it's proceeding with caution:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It was already known that the operation would become
> more difficult as it deepened and moved farther south. Al-Bab is
> the major obstacle that we are facing today. ... [The PYD and its
> armed wing the People's Protection Units] YPG, the PKK, Syria's
> Assad regime as well as the Shiite militias have diverging plans
> regarding al-Bab. While the YPG-PKK hastens efforts to connect the
> Afrin region with the area west of the Euphrates, it also tries to
> seize regions that were cleared of Daesh. The[Syrian] regime is
> trying to further enhance its influence over Aleppo and
> surrounding region at the same time."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AP and Rudaw (Kurdish)

Related Articles

• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq (25-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire (20-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** Syrian airstrike on Turkish forces threatens wider war
****

Air strikes killed four Turkish soldiers in the region around al-Bab
on Thursday.

Thursday was November 24, the one-year anniversary of the day when
Turkey's air force shot down a Russian jet along the Syria-Turkey
border. This caused a major break in relations between the two
countries, but there's been an uneasy reconciliation since Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized.

Nonetheless, Erdogan suspected that Russia's president Vladimir Putin
had ordered Thursday's airstrike in retaliation for last year's
shootdown. Russia reassured Turkey that the airstrike was not carried
out by them, and later notified Turkish officials that the attack was
conducted by a Syrian air force Albatross plane.

The fact that a Syrian regime warplane attacked Turkish forces near
al-Bab indicates the potential explosiveness of the situation. Any
repeat of such an airstrike is almost certain to provoke Turkish
retaliation on Syrian targets. Turkey has already threatened to
retaliate for Thursday's strike, though the nature of that retaliation
has not been specified.

Erdogan and Putin had a phone discussion over the incident. Little is
known about what was said, except the usual vacuous statements issued
by both sides. Erdogan reportedly told Putin that Turkey respected
Syria's territorial integrity and that its military incursion showed
its determination to fight militant groups. Putin reportedly said
that the discussion on Syria was constructive and that both sides
agreed to continue active dialogue to coordinate efforts against
international terrorism. Blah, blah, blah. Undoubtedly, Turkey's
invasion of Syria presents problems for Russia, who is the main
sponsor of Bashar al-Assad.

According to Russian analyst Vladimir Sotnikov:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"What happened in northern Syria is highly dangerous,
> potentially for Russia too. President Erdogan is a violent and
> ambitious politician, sometimes acting on his emotions. If he
> decides that the strike on Turkish forces in Syria was not a
> mistake or a chance event, but a deliberate action by the Syrian
> command, he might take this as a challenge to himself. Then, as
> precedence dictates, it will be necessary to respond.
>
> Such a response [in case Erdogan decides to use air forces]
> threatens to drag Turkey into war with Russia over who controls
> Syrian airspace."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Some Russian analysts are speculating that Bashar al-Assad ordered the
airstrike on Turkish forces in order to provoke a war between Russia
and Turkey. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet and Kommersant (Moscow)

Related Articles

• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal (11-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Reader comments and questions on Syria, Russia, and Russian trolls (08-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, al-Bab, Manbij,
Operation Euphrates Shield,Kurds, People’s Protection Units, YPG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin,
Ismail Hakki Pekin, Abdullah Agar, Vladimir Sotnikov

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Nov-16 World View -- Egypt to send troops to Syria to aid Bashar al-Assad and Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt to send troops to Syria to aid Bashar al-Assad and Russia
  
• Egypt rejects its former benefactor, Saudi Arabia, in favor of Russia and Iran
  

****
**** Egypt to send troops to Syria to aid Bashar al-Assad and Russia
****


Russian-Egyptian joint military exercises in Egypt's desert, emphasizing hostage rescue, especially in urban settings (RT)

In a new Mideast realignment, Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi has said in an interview that that he's officially backing the
regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

The Mideast Sunni countries used to be allies of Bashar al-Assad, but
turned against him when he unleashed his army and air force against
peaceful protesters in 2011. Things really turned around in August
2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military assault on a large,
peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens of
thousands of women and children Palestinians. That massive assault
turned Syria's civil war into the beginning of a regional sectarian
war.

Shia forces from Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah actively joined al-Assad
to fight Sunni militias. Young Sunni jihadists from over 80 countries
traveled to Syria to fight against al-Assad, and formed the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Other Sunni forces,
including those from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, turned against al-Assad,
and began supporting "moderate" Syrian Sunni rebels, including the
Free Syrian Army (FSA).

And it's exactly the rise of ISIS that apparently has motivated this
realignment by al-Sisi. Egypt has been targeted by numerous terror
attacks, especially in Sinai by the terror group called Ansar Bayt
al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which
changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it
changed its allegiance from al-Qaeda to ISIS in 2015.

According to al-Sisi:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[Al-Assad's forces are] best positioned to combat
> terrorism and restore stability [in Syria]. Our priority is to
> support national armies, for example in Libya to exert control
> over Libya territory and deal with extremist elements. The same
> with Syria and Iraq."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Some analysts are suggesting that al-Sisi's statement of support is
purely political, or only symbolic. But in fact reports indicate that
al-Sisi is committed militarily as well. Several reports have
indicated that al-Sisi has sent Egyptian helicopters and pilots to
Syria to take part in the fighting, and that he plans to send a large
deployment of Egyptian troops to Syria in January. Al-Sisi apparently
believes that the best way for Egypt to fight ISIS in Egypt is to
fight ISIS in Syria. Jerusalem Post and Middle East Monitor and Debka

Related Articles

• Turkey's reconciliation with Egypt appears to be unlikely (08-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Bombing of plane in Egypt threatens Russia's Syria strategy (05-Nov-2015)
  
  
• The GCC honeymoon: Arab countries reach a 'historic' agreement (14-Dec-2014)
  

****
**** Egypt rejects its former benefactor, Saudi Arabia, in favor of Russia and Iran
****

Mohammed Morsi was elected president of Egypt in 2012, along with his
Muslim Brotherhood government, and quickly assumed dictatorial powers.
Qatar was a big supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, and provided a
great deal of aid to Egypt when Morsi was in power. In July 2013
al-Sisi, then an army general, overthrew Morsi in a coup. That aid
ended with the coup, and the slack was taken up by Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait.

Saudi Arabia has tried to play a mediating role between Egypt on the
one hand and Qatar and Turkey on the other hand, and has continued
supplying aid. But with the fall in oil prices, Saudi's economy has
been in trouble, and Egypt's economy has become desperate.

Russia has promised large investments in Egypt, and recently committed
investing $11.6 billion to build up Egypt's Suez Canal industrial
zone. In return, Egypt is allowing Russia to conduct joint
Egyptian-Russian military drills on Egyptian territory. There have
been reports that Egypt would permit a Russian airbase on Egyptian
soil, but those reports have been denied.

I always like to use the phrase "forced to choose" when analyzing
situations like this. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast
is heading for a major war pitting Sunnis against Shias, Israelis
against Arabs, and different ethnic groups against each other. When
Egypt is forced to choose whether to side with Iran or with Saudi
Arabia in the war, which side will it choose?

The situation is completely unclear, because the choice will be made
not by al-Sisi but by the Egyptian people. And the Egyptian people
are deeply split between loyalty to the Muslim Brotherhood and loyalty
to a secular democracy. Al-Sisi is not as bad a genocidal monster and
Bashar al-Assad, who has tortured, jailed, displaced or killed tens of
millions of people, but he has tortured, jailed, displaced or killed
tens of thousands of people, making the value of Egypt's secular
democracy questionable. I do not believe that Egypt's people, when
forced to choose, will choose Iran over Saudi Arabia, but I do
consider it possible that there will be a split, and that part of the
regional war will be a civil war among Egyptians, at least between the
Egyptians in Cairo and the Bedouins in Sinai. Russia Today and ABNA (Shia) and Economist and Russia Today (19-Oct)

Related Articles

• Generational Dynamics analysis of the crisis in Egypt (28-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Egypt turns to Iran for oil after Saudi relationship deteriorates over Syria (19-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Egypt-Saudi deal for Red Sea bridge triggers massive protests in Cairo (16-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Egypt's President Morsi grabs power in dramatic declaration (13-Aug-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Russia, Vladimir Putin

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Nov-16 World View -- Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey
  
• The chaotic operation to liberate Mosul
  

****
**** Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey
****


Shia militia carrying Iranian billboard (Anadolu)

Iraq's parliament on Saturday voted overwhelmingly to allow
Iran-backed Shia militias to take part in the military operation to
recapture Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh).

The vote was apparently 208 to zero. That's because all the Sunni
lawmakers boycotted the vote in protest, while all the Shia lawmakers
voted overwhelmingly in favor. The parliament has 328 seats.

Mosul is a city of close to a million people, mostly Sunni Muslims.
They're well aware that Shia militias are accused of atrocities
committed against Sunni residents of towns that Shia militias have
previously liberated from ISIS. According to a January report by
Human Rights Watch:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Members of Shia militias, who the Iraqi government
> has included among its state forces, abducted and killed scores of
> Sunni residents in a central Iraq town and demolished Sunni homes,
> stores, and mosques following January 11, 2016 bombings claimed by
> the extremist group Islamic State, also known as ISIS. None of
> those responsible have been brought to justice."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

For this reason, Turkey has predicted a sectarian war if Shia militias
are part of the force sent to liberate Mosul, and has demanded that
the Iraqi army alone liberate Mosul, a condition to which Iraq has
previously agreed. But now Iraq has apparently reneged on that
commitment.

Mosul is a historically Sunni city and was part of the Ottoman empire,
and any attempt to change is demographic composition would be a direct
threat to Turkey's security. The concern is that the population would
be diluted by Kurds or by Shia Muslims coming from Iran. Turkey would
consider that to be a threat to its security. Middle East Monitor and AP and Human Rights Watch (31-Jan-2016) and NRT TV (Kurdish)

Related Articles

• Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation (18-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq (25-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS (11-Jun-2014)
  

****
**** The chaotic operation to liberate Mosul
****

BBC news reporter Richard Galpin last week drove to the front line in
Mosul along with one of the Iraqi army's top generals Najim
al-Jibouri. Here are some excerpts from his report:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"On the way there we saw that Shia militias, not the
> Iraqi army, were manning checkpoints in areas taken back from the
> IS militants.
>
> The militias have a controversial history. Some have been accused
> in the past of committing atrocities against Sunni Muslims. Now
> they're an integral part of the offensive on Mosul, which is a
> majority Sunni Muslim city - although they have been told not to
> enter the city.
>
> Also taking part in the offensive are Kurdish troops, the
> Peshmerga, who've also agreed to stay out of Mosul to avoid
> inflaming ethnic tensions. And then there are Christian militias
> and some Sunni tribesmen.
>
> While this complex mix of vested interests is currently bonded by
> the common goal of destroying IS in Iraq, it could fracture once
> that goal is achieved. For now though the focus remains on
> regaining the momentum of the offensive as elite troops try to
> push forward towards the center of Mosul.
>
> It is heavy going - the IS leadership has had two years to prepare
> for this battle. And it's widely believed to have former Iraqi
> army and intelligence officers in its ranks, with the skills and
> knowledge to exploit the advantage of defending a city of narrow
> streets and with as many as a million people still living there.
> So far they've been using a stream of suicide bombers along with
> well-trained snipers to pin down the Iraqi special forces pushing
> forward street by street.
>
> The troops are taking a lot of casualties and there are reports
> they don't have the back-up they need from units of the regular
> army which have not yet moved inside the city.
>
> It was never going to be easy to dislodge Islamic State from
> Mosul, but unless the militants suddenly collapse or cut and run,
> it looks like it is going to be a long, costly
> battle."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Iraq's government has been bragging that the Iraqi army is going to
strike a blow that will defeat ISIS in Mosul very quickly. Galpin's
point was that Iraq's government is wrong, and also that nobody knows
what's going to happen, except that it will take a long time.

A web site reader posted the following comment with regard to the
situation in Syria: "I like to think I'm well-read and a capable
reader. I don't have a clue as to who's doing what to whom and with
what friends. How I wish America could afford to ignore this rabid dog
fight, but we best not. Trouble is, who has enough mental acuity to
keep all these abbreviations and their cloud-of-dust punch-ups
straight in their minds? I surely don't."

This is an interesting observation, because it illustrates what an
early and confusing stage the Mideast war is at, before it's
completely clear who is fighting whom. When you think of WW II, you
think of huge armies and navies from Germany, Japan, Russia, Britain,
the US, and so forth. But the Mideast wars haven't yet reached that
state. You have small tribes and militias fighting each other in what
might be called "mini-wars" -- whether in Syria, Iraq, Yemen or Libya.
National governments are trying their best to stay out of these
mini-wars, except to provide weapons or money. Iran and Saudi Arabia
are on opposite sides of wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, but one cannot
at this time say that Iran and Saudi Arabia are at war.

In this generational Crisis era, that situation can't last forever.
New generations of nationalistic, xenophobic young men are growing up
in tribes and villages all over the Mideast. They're fighting each
other in these mini-wars, but the number and ferocity of the mini-wars
is growing. At some point, the Saudis will do something that the
Iranians believe requires retaliation, or vice-versa, or maybe it will
start with Pakistan versus India, or China versus Vietnam.

So what's going to happen in Mosul? If the Shia militias enter Mosul,
will they liberate the Sunni residents or will they commit atrocities
again, as they have in the past? Will Turkey decide to intervene to
protect its interests in Mosul and protect the Turkmen citizens? Will
that draw in more Iranian forces?

The fact is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen. This is an
"organic" situation where you have lots of tribal and ethnic groups.
There are commanders directing each of the small groups, but there's
nobody running the whole show. Nobody knows what's going to happen,
because all these groups are increasingly nationalistic, and even they
don't know what they're going to do.

The good news is that, for the time being, these mini-wars don't
affect us (unless you have friends or family in the region). The bad
news is that these mini-wars are going to coalesce and become larger,
and other nations will be forced to choose which side they want to be
on. And then there will be a full-scale Mideast war -- Sunni versus
Shia, Arab versus Jew, and ethnic group versus ethnic group. BBC and
Reuters

Related Articles

• Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS (20-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul from ISIS (30-Oct-2016)
  
  
• In repeat of Mosul disaster, Iraqi army abandoned US weapons in Ramadi (20-May-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Iran, Shia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Human Rights Watch, BBC, Richard Galpin, Najim al-Jibouri

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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Nov-16 World View -- UN: Burma (Myanmar) committing 'ethnic cleansing' of Rohingyas

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UN: Burma (Myanmar) committing 'ethnic cleansing' of Rohingyas
  
• Bangladesh is blocking Rohingya refugees fleeing from Burma violence
  
• Tens of thousands flee from northern Burma across border to China
  

****
**** UN: Burma (Myanmar) committing 'ethnic cleansing' of Rohingyas
****


Children recycle goods from the ruins of a market in a Rohingya village that was burned down two weeks ago (Reuters)

As we've been reporting,
Human
Rights Watch has posted satellite images that show that villages of
Rohingya Muslims are being systematically burned down. Myanmar
officials are making the laughable claim that the Rohingyas are
burning down their own homes to embarrass the government, but it's
pretty widely believed that it's being done Myanmar soldiers and
security forces.

Myanmar officials are refusing to allow any aid agencies,
international investigative agencies or reporters to enter the area to
determine who is burning down the villages. However, eyewitness
reports have been coming out, and John McKissick, head of the United
Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) in the Bangladeshi border town of Cox's
Bazar says that Myanmar troops are "killing men, shooting them,
slaughtering children, raping women, burning and looting houses,
forcing these people to cross the river" into Bangladesh. Other UN
officials are saying that the Myanmar government actions are "ethnic
cleansing."

This is all completely believable in view of the history of the past
few years. In 2012 and 2013, Buddhist monks in Burma have been
leading genocidal attacks on Rohingyas, in violation of the precepts
of the Buddhism religion. In one attack, large mobs with hundreds of
Buddhists attacked Muslims with knives and sticks.

The attacks have been led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969
movement," where 969 is a historic Buddhist sign, referring to the
nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and
nine qualities of the Buddhist community. 969 is supposed to promote
peace and happiness, although Wirathu's 969 movement is a vehicle
promoting violence. And now the Burma's army is apparently taking
over the movement with ethnic cleansing.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a classic,
historical act of genocidal extermination of one group targeting
another. In this generational Crisis era, we're going to see more of
these -- Hindu vs Muslim in Kashmir, Sunni vs Shia in the Mideast,
reminiscent of Hutus vs Tutsis in 1994 Rwanda, Christian vs Jew in
World War II or French vs English in the Hundred Years War, or
Protestant vs Catholic in European wars of the past. AFP and The Hindu and Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Burma Buddhists attempt to justify genocidal attacks on Muslims (26-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Militants linked to Myanmar's Rohingyas kill border guards in revenge attack (12-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Buddhist violence against Muslims in Burma/Myanmar continues to spread (03-Oct-2013)
  

****
**** Bangladesh is blocking Rohingya refugees fleeing from Burma violence
****

Thousands of desperate Rohingyas from Burma's Rakhine state,
threatened with ethnic cleansing by Burma's soldiers, have been
fleeing into Bangladesh in the past two weeks, either walking across
the border or by boat across the Bay of Bengal.

However, Bangladesh has ignored international appeals, and is refusing
them entry, and has turned boatloads of refugees back, forcing them to
return to Burma. Bangladesh's foreign ministry has confirmed that
thousands of Rohingya have already sought refuge in the country, while
thousands more are reportedly gathering on the border.

Those defending Bangladesh's policy point out that there are millions
of Rohingyas living in Rakhine state, and if Bangladesh completely
opened the border, then the surge of fleeing refugees would be
overwhelming. VOA and BBC and Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• U.N. alarmed as ethnic violence grows in western Burma (Myanmar) (27-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Burma (Myanmar) declares state of emergency over Buddhist/Muslim violence (11-Jun-2012)
  

****
**** Tens of thousands flee from northern Burma across border to China
****

Burma has a completely separate problem with other ethnic groups in
the north -- the Kachin Independence Army, the Ta’ang National
Liberation Army, and Kokang’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance
Army. As I recently reported,

these groups are continuing decades' long fights with Burma's army,
and tens of thousands of residents from the region are fleeing across
the border into China to escape the violence.

China has put its army on high alert along the border, and is
reinforcing its troops on the border with military trucks, tanks,
heavy weapons and machine guns. China says that it is willing to play
a "constructive role" in helping Myanmar resolve the problem, but no
one knows whether that would mean that under some circumstances
China's military would cross the border into Myanmar.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Burma is an extremely
difficult country to analyze because there are so many different
ethnic groups fighting with and against each other. Following World
War II, Burma experienced a series of extremely bloody crisis civil
wars that only climaxed in 1958 when the army took over power. There
has been sporadic fighting among these groups in the decades since
then, but nothing that has escalated into a major war. Of the
15 armed ethnic groups in Burma, only eight were willing to
sign a peace agreement at a recent signing ceremony.

A major research project is needed for Burma. The objective would be
to analyze all Burma's ethnic groups individually, and develop
generational timelines for each of them. Any historian with knowledge
or love of Burma will find this a rewarding project. Burma News International and CCTV (China) and VOA

Related Articles

• China puts army on high alert along border with Burma (Myanmar) (22-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement (15-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Human Rights Watch,
Rohingyas, John McKissick, Bangladesh,
Ashin Wirathu, 969 movement, United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR,
Kachin Independence Army, KIA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, TNLA,
Kokang’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Nov-16 World View -- Mahmoud Abbas, 81, reelected leader of Fatah/Palestinian Authority

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mahmoud Abbas, 81, reelected leader of Fatah/Palestinian Authority
  
• Hopes again grow for Gaza-West Bank unity government
  

****
**** Mahmoud Abbas, 81, reelected leader of Fatah/Palestinian Authority
****


Mohammed Dahlan

The 81-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, who took over as leader of the
Palestinian Authority (PA) in January 2005, after the death of Yassir
Arafat, was overwhelming reelected as leader of Fatah/PA, which
governs the West Bank, on Tuesday, after ruthlessly shutting out his
principal opponent, 55-year-old Mohammed Dahlan, and Dahlan's
supporters.

Abbas's victory isn't a surprise, but it wasn't the outcome that the
so-call "Arab quartet" -- United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Saudi
Arabia and Jordan -- had hoped for. Much of the Arab world has been
waiting for Abbas to retire or die, so that a younger leader like
Dahlan could replace him.

Abbas, born in 1935, is part of the old generation of survivors of the
genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed the 1947
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
When Yasser Arafat died in December 2004, Abbas was a natural choice
to succeed him, because they were both war survivors and shared a
common world view. But now the time is approaching for a successor
and for a generational change.

The major aspirant is 55 year old Mohammed Dahlan. Dahlan grew up
poor in a Gaza refugee camp, but as a top aide to Arafat became Gaza's
strongman in the 1990s, jailing leaders of rival Hamas which was
trying to derail Arafat’s negotiation with Israel through bombing and
shooting attacks. Abbas and Dahlan used to be allies, but the 2008
war between Fatah and Hamas, that made Hamas the governing power in
Gaza caused tension between them, until 2011 when Abbas expelled
Dahlan completely from Fatah.

The population of the West Bank is badly split between supporters of
Abbas and Dahlan. Abbas, as a survivor of the bloody 1947-48 war, has
devoted much of his life to achieving some kind of political solution
to the conflict with Israel -- namely the so-called "two-state
solution" with Israel and Palestine existing side by side in peace --
a "solution" that can only be described as delusional.

Supporters of Dahlan are generally much more belligerent, and are
ready to go to war with Israel. Dahlan and his supporters are in the
generations that grew up after the 1947-48, and have no personal
memory of its horrors, and so is not afraid to see that war repeated.

The youngest generations of Palestinians, as far as I can tell, are
pretty much disgusted with all the Palestinian leadership. This is
the so-called "Oslo generation," kids growing up after the 1993 Oslo
accords that were supposed to bring peace to the Mideast, but in fact
are perceived as having accomplished nothing. They see the so-called
"Mideast peace process" as nothing more than a failed series of
humiliations for Palestinians.

There has apparently been one change in the last year. In 2015, there
was a spate of knife attacks on Israelis by 15-25 year old boys in the
Oslo generation of Palestinians. Those knife attacks have not been in
the news in a long time, and so apparently have run their course.
Al-Monitor and Israel National News and Middle East Eye

Related Articles

• Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Palestinian president Abbas, 79, faces life after 'peace talks' collapse (21-Apr-2014)
  

****
**** Hopes again grow for Gaza-West Bank unity government
****

Ever since Hamas's stunning victory of Fatah/Palestinian Authority in
2006, which permitted Hamas to eject Fatah from Gaza, the two
governments have seemed to hate each other more than they hate Israel.

There have been several attempts to form a "unity government" between
the two entities. The most recent attempt followed the 31-day Gaza
war between Israel and Hamas, which Israel won. After the war, there
was enormous pressure from Arab states for Hamas and Fatah to unify
into a single government. The United Nations General Assembly had
created the nation "Palestine" in 2012, but it didn't make sense to
have a state of Palestine, if the Palestinians had two separate
governments in conflict with each other.

They did form a unity government in June 2014, but it was unity in
name only. They never did function as a single government, and Abbas
dissolved it in June 2015 over a disagreement about money.

However, hopes have arisen again of a unity government, after Hamas
chief Khaled Mashaal said in a speech earlier this month that a
reconciliation should be tried:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is time we reconsider the organization
> [Fatah/PA]. ... In order to build our lives and political system
> on democratic foundations, we must be partners in shouldering
> responsibility and partners in the decision of war and peace. ...
>
> The wager on the diplomatic movement on its own has been proven a
> failure. Let us agree on a national strategy and that everyone is
> with the [armed] resistance, which is a legitimate right that
> raises the cost of the occupation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The last sentence affirms that Hamas expects to continuing using
violence against Israel, to end Israel's "occupation" of land in the
Mideast and Israel's existence.

There's good reason to doubt that the West Bank and Gaza Palestinian
populations can ever be unified into a single government. The two
Palestinian territories have been separated for several decades, and
so the two cultures have grown in separate directions. Times of Israel (2-Nov) and Israel National News (26-Apr-2015)

Related Articles

• Hamas' stunning Gaza victory shocks entire Mideast (22-Jun-2007)
  
  
• United Nations creates the nation 'Palestine' (30-Nov-2012)
  
  
• Hamas leader resigns as Palestine unity government is announced (03-Jun-2014)
  
  
• Mahmoud Abbas dissolves the Palestinian unity government (18-Jun-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Fatah, Palestinian Authority, Palestine,
West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas, Mohammed Dahlan, Arab quartet,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan,
Yasser Arafat, Israel, Oslo generation

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Dec-16 World View -- Europeans wonder if Turkey will reopen the refugee floodgates

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mediterranean migrant traffic to Italy and Greece continues, despite cold weather
  
• Europeans wonder if Turkey will reopen the refugee floodgates
  

****
**** Mediterranean migrant traffic to Italy and Greece continues, despite cold weather
****


Rescuing an overcrowded migrant boat off the Libyan coast (Reuters)

About 171,000 migrants reached Italy after crossing the Mediterranean
Sea so far this year, a new record. The previous record was 170,100
for all of 2014. The number arriving in Greece so far this year
totals another 171,731, but this figure is well below the 2015 figure
of 883,393, thanks to the EU-Turkey refugee deal.

More than three times as many migrants reached Italy this November as
did so in the same month last year. On Monday alone, Italian and
international rescuers reportedly pulled 1,400 people from the water
to rescue them from drowning.

The EU-Turkey refugee deal has substantially reduced the number of
migrants traveling from Turkey across the Aegean Sea to Greece. Those
migrants are generally from war zones in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Most migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea to Europe are from
African countries, according to the International Organization for
Migration:

• Nigeria: 35716
  
• Eritrea: 20000
  
• Guinea : 12352
  
• Ivory Coast: 11406
  
• Gambia : 11022

The process of Mediterranean migrant traffic has become an extremely
efficient and cynical assembly line. People-smugglers launch
overcrowded rubber boats from the Libyan coast, with absolutely no
pretense that the rubber boats will reach Europe. The migrants are
told to use their radios to call for help from European rescuers while
they are still close to the Libyan coast. There is a high risk that
the overcrowded rubber boats will sink or capsize before rescuers can
find them. There have been 4,655 cases of deaths of missing at sea
recorded in the Mediterranean so far this year, compared to 3,771
cases in the whole of 2015.

The cold weather is making the trip far more deadly. Nonetheless,
more migrants are making the trip because they want to cross before
winter, and because people-smugglers are telling migrants that the EU
is going to close the Mediterranean Sea route. BBC and International Organization For Migration and International Business Times

Related Articles

• Europeans expect hundreds of thousands of migrants from Libya (30-Mar-2016)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Refugee crisis: Turkey ridicules Europe as Hungary closes Croatia border (17-Oct-2015)
  

****
**** Europeans wonder if Turkey will reopen the refugee floodgates
****

The EU-Turkey refugee deal seems to be hanging by a thread. Last
week's vote by the EU parliament to recommend ending negotiations for
Turkey's membership in the EU has infuriated the Turks, especially
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said angrily, "Look, if you go
further, the border gates will be opened. You should know that."

In fact, there are reports from Greece's intelligence unit that
Erdogan has ordered that refugees be lined up along the Aegean Sea,
ready to cross to Greece. The report indicates that as many as 3,000
refugees would cross every day, which would amount to about one
million in a year.

Other reports indicate that some European nations are almost in a
state of panic, and are making preparations. Serbia, Bulgaria,
Macedonia, Croatia and Hungary are reportedly planning to build fences
and barriers that would effectively divide Europe in two, and seal off
most of the continent.

However, some analysts are doubting would ever launch this "nuclear
option." The threat of ending the EU-Turkey refugee deal is a huge
piece of leverage for Turkey in negotiations on any subject, and once
he abrogated the deal, he would lose his negotiating leverage and
invite retaliation.

In the past I've suggested my own possible scenario, which I've never
seen discussed in the media. Ending the EU-Turkey refugee deal isn't
a binary on or off decision. For example, Erdogan could move some of
his troops from the coast along the Aegean Sea to southeastern Turkey
to meet the threat from the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Protection from PKK would be perfect cover for a decision that would
permit a small to moderate increase in the refugee flow. This would
serve notice to the EU that more troops could be moved away at any
time, to increase the refugee flow some more. This would permit
Turkey to retain its negotiating leverage, although the fact that it
was cold-blooded extortion would still be perfectly obvious. Independent (London) and Pro Thema (Greece) (Trans) and Express (London) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Related Articles

• Turkey furious at EU parliament's vote to end accession talks (25-Nov-2016)
  
  
• EU's expected scathing report on Turkey may scuttle refugee deal (09-Nov-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mediterranean Sea, Italy, Greece, Libya,
Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Eritrea, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Gambia,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Serbia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Croatia, Hungary

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Dec-16 World View -- Sunday's referendum in Italy threatens EU's stability

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sunday's referendum in Italy threatens EU's stability
  
• Referendum vote could affect stability of Italy's troubled banks
  

****
**** Sunday's referendum in Italy threatens EU's stability
****


A demonstrator calls for a 'no' vote on Sunday (AFP)

On Sunday, Italy will vote on a referendum which, according to prime
minister Matteo Renzi, will change the constitution to make Italy more
governable, and more able to cope with the future.

The referendum is important in its own right, but it became
geopolitically significant in January when Renzi announced that he
would resign if the referendum failed. Many analysts call this an act
of hubris that was unnecessary and even disastrous, but it's been
done. And now the consequences are that the referendum is less about
constitutional reform, and more about whether Renzi should remain in
office.

After the spectacular failure of polling organizations to predict the
result of Britain's Brexit referendum or the American presidential
election, no one knows whether or not to believe polls anymore.
Nonetheless, many politicians are nervous, because the poll results
show that the referendum is more likely to fail than to succeed.

If the referendum fails, and if Renzi keeps his promise and resigns,
and if the remaining MPs in parliament cannot find a way to select a
"caretaker" government that will keep things going -- if all of those
things occur, then there will be new elections.

It's thought that the party most likely to benefit from new elections
will be the left-wing populist Five Star Movement (M5S), led by Beppe
Grillo, an Italian comedian, actor, and political activist. M5S
received about one-quarter of the vote in the 2013 elections, has won
some major mayoral elections since then, and has become increasingly
popular. And Grillo and the Five Star politicians are "euroskeptic"
and have said that they'll sponsor a new referendum on whether Italy
should pull out of the eurozone, and possibly the European Union.

So, if there are new elections, and if the Five Star Movement and its
euroskeptic allies come into power, and if they sponsor a new
referendum, and if that new referendum is approved -- if all of those
things occur, then the stability of the eurozone and the European
Union will be at risk.

That's a lot of "if's" that have to happen. Nonetheless, Europe's
politicians have been unnerved by a series of populist setbacks, the
main ones being the Brexit referendum and the American election, and
they're afraid that Sunday's referendum vote in Italy will be the next
one. Spiegel (Germany) and Express (London) and The Local (Italy)

Related Articles

• After Brexit and Trump, Italy's Five-Star-Movement may be the next surprise (18-Nov-2016)
  

****
**** Referendum vote could affect stability of Italy's troubled banks
****

There's a completely different scenario where a "no" vote on
Sunday's referendum could threaten instability of the euro.

As we've been reporting, Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena
(MPS), founded in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank, is
close to collapse because it has $55.2 billion of bad loans on its
book. Other Italian banks are in trouble as well, holding a total of
about $383 billion in non-performing loans, about a third of the total
in the entire eurozone.

MPS has been trying to avoid collapse by trying to convince investors
to lend the bank another $5 billion, despite having burned through two
previous large loans.

It's believed that a "no" vote on Sunday's referendum will create
enough uncertainty that Italy's borrowing costs might rise
significantly. In fact, anticipation of a "no" vote has caused
investors to sell off Italian bonds, pushing yields (interest rates)
up to 2%, compared to just 0.3% for German bunds.

If borrowing costs increase further, then investors could be far less
interested in lending MPS the $5 billion it needs to avoid collapse,
and this could have a domino effect that could catastrophically affect
Italy's entire banking system. In the most likely scenario, Italy's
government would have to bail out the banks with taxpayer money, but
this is a violation of new rules set by the European Central Bank,
forcing Italy out of the eurozone.

Not everyone is so pessimistic. In the optimistic scenario, it will
turn out that poll results were erroneous because voters were ashamed
to admit that they're voting "yes" on the referendum, just as they
were ashamed to admit that they were voting for Brexit or Trump. The
optimistic scenario also notes that the Wall Street stocks surged to
new highs following Trumps' election. So in this scenario, Renzi
remains in office, Italian stocks surge, MPS gets it bailout money
from investors, and Italy muddles through for another year. CNN and Market Watch and Stratfor

Related Articles

• Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world's oldest bank, appears close to collapse (04-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Italy bank crisis more dangerous to EU than Brexit (05-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Fearing more Brexit-like votes, EU abandons fiscal rules for Spain, Portugal, Italy (30-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Matteo Renzi, Brexit,
Five Star Movement, M5S, Beppe Grillo,
Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Dec-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers
  
• Dangerous tensions continue in Kashmir
  
• India says that Modi's 'demonetization' program reduced Kashmir violence
  

****
**** India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers
****


Indus River Valley (Reuters)

As tit-for-tat charges and insults between India and Pakistan continue
to escalate, India's prime minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday said
that India would abrogate the 56-year-old Indus Water Treaty and
divert water currently flowing from India to Pakistan back to India's
farmers.

Speaking to a rally in Punjab last week on Friday, Modi said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Under the Indus Water Treaty, India has the right
> over water of Satluj, Beas and Ravi rivers. It rightfully belongs
> to our farmers, but this water is not reaching the farmer's field,
> instead the water is flowing to Pakistan and eventually going to
> the sea. Governments came and went in Delhi, but farmers kept
> suffering as water continued to flow to Pakistan. Not any-more, I
> will ensure that farmers get what is rightfully theirs.
>
> This water is neither being utilized by Pakistan nor does it come
> in Indian farmers destiny. I have set-up a task force. I'm
> committed to ensure that every single drop of water, which is
> rightfully ours, under the Indus Water Treaty, is brought to the
> farmers in Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and other parts of the
> country. ...
>
> There is no reason that we cannot use our rights (over our waters)
> and let our farmers suffer. I need your blessings in order to
> fulfill your requirements for watering your fields."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Sirajul Haq of the Islamist political party Jamaat-i-Islami responded:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Yesterday, prime minister of India Narendra Modi sent
> a message to Pakistan that he would block our rivers. Today,
> standing here in Karachi, near the mausoleum of Quaid-i-Azam
> Mohammad Ali Jinnah I want to inform Modi that the line does not
> exist on his palm that says that he can do any such thing. Mr
> Modi, if you stop our water, we will stop your
> breathing."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Pakistan officials so far has been relatively restrained in responding
to this threat, possibly viewing Modi's remarks as merely campaign
rhetoric. They pointed out that the Indus Water Treaty was mediated
by the World Bank in 1960, and has survived despite several wars
between the two sides. Pakistan media reports have pointed out that
Pakistan is already short of water, and that Modi's threat, if
implemented, would deal a severe blow to Pakistan's farmers. The News (Pakistan) and Hindustan Times (11-Nov) and Pak Observer and Dawn (Pakistan)

Related Articles

• India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights (03-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** Dangerous tensions continue in Kashmir
****

Pakistan and India abandoned any pretense at cordial relations earlier
this year after a January 2 there was a terrorist attack on an Indian
air force base in Panthankot, Punjab, which India blamed on Pakistan.
Pakistan accused India of staging the attack to defame Pakistan.

The name-calling became extremely vitriolic after a September 18
terrorist attack on India's Uri army base in Kashmir. Four militants,
carrying guns and grenades, stormed an Indian army base in Uri in
Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers
were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst militant
terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.

This comes as the violence in Kashmir continues to increase. In
October, India relocated 10,000 people in India-controlled Kashmir
away from the Line of Control (LoC) that separates the India and
Pakistan regions of Kashmir, and last month Pakistan evacuated 8,000
people from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir away from the LoC. CNN (1-Oct) and CNN (16-Nov)

Related Articles

• New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation (19-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** India says that Modi's 'demonetization' program reduced Kashmir violence
****

On November 8, India's prime minister declared 500-1000 rupee notes worthless.
This "demonetization"
policy has, in many ways, been an economic disaster, causing hardship
for many people who have been standing in lines at banks for hours at
a time just to exchange the worthless notes for new notes. Many
people have been unable to buy necessities like food, and some have
been stranded far from home, unable to purchase train tickets.

According to India's defense minister Manohar Parrikar, the
demonetization program has substantially reduced the amount of
violence in Kashmir, by reducing incidents of stone-pelting.
According to Parrikar:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Earlier, there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting
> [on security forces in Kashmir] and Rs 1,000 for doing something
> else. PM has brought terror funding to zero. In the last few days
> after PM's daring move there hasn't been stone pelting on security
> forces. I congratulate PM for it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's believed that separatist activists were paying stone-pelters in
counterfeit notes that had been printed in Pakistan. By making all
500-1000 rupee notes worthless, the counterfeit notes also became
worthless.

If all this is true, then it would certainly count as a fairly
spectacular success story, even if the reduction in stone-pelting only
lasts a few months. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
the violence in Kashmir is "organic" or "indigenous," in the sense
that it's not directed by armies or generals, but is rising up from
the people. The violence comes from various tribal and ethnic groups,
not from an army or militia obeying the orders of a national
commander.

As I described in a recent article,
India's last two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted India's Hindus against the British
colonialists, and the 1947 Partition war, which pitted Hindus and
Muslims against each other, following the partitioning of the Indian
subcontinent into India and Pakistan. As we described in that
article, the 1857 war led naturally to violence between Hindus and
Muslims decades later, and then to the 1947 war.

Now we're seeing that the 1947 war is leading, decades later, to new
violence between Hindus and Muslims. Generational Dynamics predicts
that we're seeing a kind of repeat of 1947, and that this increasing
violence will lead to a new generational crisis war between Hindus and
Muslims, and from there to full-scale war between Pakistan and India.

If Modi's demonetization program is really reducing the amount of
stone-pelting, then it's a development that can almost be described as
amazing. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's
only temporary, in that can't stop the generational changes that are
leading to a major new war between Pakistan and India. Times of India and Business Standard (India)

Related Articles

• India's prime minister Narendra Modi declares 500-1000 rupee notes worthless (12-Nov-2016)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Narendra Modi, demonetization,
Kashmir, Pakistan, Sirajul Haq, Jamaat-i-Islami,
Indus Water Treaty, World Bank, Panthankot, Uri, Manohar Parrikar

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Dec-16 World View -- No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen
  
• From the Truman Doctrine to renewed nationalism
  

There was no "Generational Dynamics World View" posting on Sunday
because Comcast crashed, and the internet was unavailable most of
Saturday and Sunday. I apologize to my readers for any inconvenience.

****
**** No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen
****


Trump and Tsai (South China Morning Post)

On Friday, Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen had a "shock" 10-minute
phone conversation with US President-elect Donald Trump. As usual,
the mainstream media have reported this story in the most incompetent
way possible. I saw and heard so-called "experts" talking on the BBC
and CNN ranting and raving how this was going to cause a war. The
printed mainstream press referred to it as a "major crisis."

The utter incompetence of the mainstream media in dealing with this
story was amazing. We know that the SAT scores of students have been
falling for decades, and now it seems like the reporters at the NY
Times, NBC News, CNN and others apparently majored in sociology and
women's studies in college, so they have no clue what journalism is.

Furthermore, having spent eight years simply re-publishing statements
and press releases from the Obama administration, these reporters have
absolutely no journalistic experience that would allow them to report
a story on their own, which reporters were able to do before the rise
of Generation-X.

As regular Generational Dynamics readers know, China has been
aggressively preparing for full-scale war with the United States for
years. They've developed one nuclear missile system after another,
and manufactured perhaps hundreds of those missiles, with no other
purpose than to destroy American cities, military bases and aircraft
carriers. These developments have been deliberately planned, and it's
clear that China plans to attack at a time of its own choosing, not to
be triggered in a panic because of a ten-minute phone call.

Furthermore, China did not launch a war after much worse provocations.
In January Tsai Ing-wen, president of the pro-independence Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP), won an overwhelming and decisive electoral victory in January.
China was
outraged, but didn't start a war.

On July 12 ruling on the South China Sea, the United Nations Permanent
Court of Arbitration eviscerated China's claims to the South China Sea
in a legal challenge brought by the Philippines. China was
FURIOUS and thoroughly humiliated by the decision, and issued one
angry, contemptuous statement after another, but didn't launch a war.

So it was really pretty obvious that China wasn't going to launch a
war over a ten-minute phone call. The Gen-X so-called "journalists"
at the BBC, NY Times, and CNN could have figured that out as easily as
I could. In addition to being incompetent as journalists, they're
emotionally traumatized by the enormous humiliation they suffered in
the election results after aggressively supporting Clinton during the
campaign with some of the most moronic "news" reporting in history.

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the world is headed for a new world war, the Clash of Civilizations
world war. The allies of the West will include Japan, India, Russia
and Iran. The enemies will be China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim
countries. This will be the world's greatest war in history.

So a war with China is coming, and would be coming irrespective of
whether Trump or Clinton had won. It would be nice if the mainstream
media could start reporting actual news instead of fatuous nonsense,
but that's apparently too much to hope for. Xinhua and International Business Times and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)

Related Articles

• New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China (02-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal (15-Jul-2015)
  

****
**** From the Truman Doctrine to renewed nationalism
****

I've written
many times about the
Truman Doctrine, from President Harry Truman in 1947, which made
America policeman of the world. The justification is that it's better
to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let
it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II.
The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John Kennedy's "ask
not" speech, and every president since WW II has followed the Truman
Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first
president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the
world without a policeman. As I've written numerous times, I believe
that the cause of Obama's numerous foreign policy disasters is his
repudiation of the Truman Doctrine. From various apology tours to
flip-flopping on the Syria Sarin gas red line to prematurely pulling
American troops from Iraq, Obama's rejection of America's role as
policeman of the world has left the world without a policeman, and
we've seen the results.

The phone call between Donald Trump and Taiwan's president Tsai
Ing-wen indicates another serious turn in American foreign policy.

As I've been writing for over ten years, America and much of the world
are in a generational Crisis era, and I've documented numerous
examples in country after country of what always happens in a
generational Crisis era -- the rise of xenophobia and nationalism.
This has happened in China vs Japan, China vs Vietnam, India vs
Pakistan, Europe vis-à-vis the Muslims and the Roma, and America
vis-à-vis the Muslims and the Mexicans.

Fortunately, and much to my great relief, president-elect Trump has
almost completely walked back his xenophobic remarks about Mexicans
and Muslims, and this gives me hope that, unlike our current
president, he's a person who is able to learn, though that remains to
be seen.

However, even without the xenophobia, Trump has tapped into the
increasing mood of nationalism that we see in America, and other
countries. We saw the growth of nationalism in the anti-EU Brexit
vote in Britain, we saw it on Sunday with the anti-EU referendum vote
in Italy that may force the resignation of Matteo Renzi, and we saw it
in the phone call with Taiwan's president.

Nationalism is not the same as the Truman Doctrine. The Truman
Doctrine provides guidelines for a military action whose purpose
is to prevent a foreign war from spiraling into a major war. A
police analogy would be the Los Angeles police taking action
to prevent further fighting between the Crips and the Bloods.
Nationalism is much more ideological, as if the LA police took
the side of the Crips for ideological reasons and fought with
them against the Bloods.

Foreign policy for the last eight years has repudiated the Truman
Doctrine and been highly anti-nationalistic and hence highly
ideological, with highly undesirable outcomes. It remains to be seen
in the next few years whether America follows a new ideological
foreign policy, dictated by nationalism, or whether it's a return to a
reasoned, methodical foreign policy, such as the one dictated by the
Truman Doctrine, followed by every president from Harry Truman to
George Bush. A war between China and Taiwan is inevitable, at a time
of Beijing's choosing, no matter what president Trump does, but too
much nationalism can make it appear that we're taking sides. With the
Clash of Civilizations world war approaching, a reasoned, methodical,
non-ideological foreign policy is what we need.

Related Articles

• The cost of repudiating the Truman Doctrine (06-Sep-2015)
  
  
• Defense Sec'y Robert Gates repudiates the Truman Doctrine (11-Jun-2011)
  
  
• Awakenings and the Truman Doctrine (19-Sep-2006)
  
• 1946 Intelligence Report: Islam - A Threat to World Stability (23-Jun-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
China, Philippines, South China Sea, Permanent Court of Arbitration,
Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, John Kennedy

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

John X, Your ideas regarding the keeping the Truman doctrine regarding Taiwan is problematic because it expose the US to attack whenever Beijing finally decides it wants to conquer Taiwan. Repudiating the alliance would certainly expose Taiwan to invasion, but without the US alliance, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan wouldn't automatically mean a US vs China WW3. Regarding the possibility of trump walking back from proposed deportations, doing so would be a destabilizing factor in American internal stability because deportations would free up Jobs for Native-Born american use, and secondly would satiate nationalist and patriotic sentiments that caused his election in the first place thus stabilizing the US economy and American society.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Dec-16 World View -- China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan
  
• Russia promises Tajikistan a 'large quantity' of military aircraft
  

****
**** China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan
****


Joint China and Tajikistan military exercises in October (Asia-Plus)

In a major change in policy, China is becoming more militarily active
in the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan. Tajikistan, which was
one of the republics of the Soviet Union, is usually thought to be in
Russia's exclusive sphere of influence.

As we've reported in the past,

China has been economically very aggressive in Tajikistan. It's
thought that there are now 150,000 Chinese working in Tajikistan, and
China has been buying up industries and huge amounts of farmland. In
2011, Tajikistan agreed to hand over around 1% of its territory to
China in exchange for having some of its debts forgiven.

Unexpectedly, China's military activity in Tajikistan has also expanded
substantially. In September 2016, Beijing offered to build 11 new
border checkpoints and a new military facility along the
Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, which raised [1]some concerns in
Russia. On October 20–24, a combined 10,000 military personnel from
the National Army of Tajikistan and China's People’s Liberation Army
(PLA) were conducted five days of counterterrorism exercises in a
region bordering Afghanistan.

China's military activity in Tajikistan serves multiple objectives --
protecting its economic interests, defending Central Asia and itself
from jihadist terrorism, and containing Russia's influence. Russian
officials have not commented on this change so far, but it's certain
to raise tensions in Central Asia. Jamestown and The Diplomat and EurasiaNet (24-Oct)

Related Articles

• China overtaking both Russia and US in influence in Central Asia (05-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan (08-May-2015)
  

****
**** Russia promises Tajikistan a 'large quantity' of military aircraft
****

On Monday, defense ministers of Russia and Tajikistan, meeting in
Moscow, signed a military aid agreement specifying that Russia would
provide a "large quantity" of military aircraft to Tajikistan over the
next year. Russia's defense minister Sergey Shoigu said after the
meeting:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Next year the key phase of our military-technical
> cooperation will begin, the delivery of weaponry and military
> equipment. In particular, this is a large quantity of aviation
> equipment, airplanes and helicopters. I think this will be
> implemented according to plan and on schedule. And, of course, it
> will contribute to stability in the region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to a Tajik source, the deal will include combat aircraft,
armored vehicles and communications.

This agreement shows that China will not easily be able to displace
Russia in Tajikistan. Russia had a special unit of border guards at
the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border between 1992 and 2005 and repeatedly
repelled attacks by Taliban forces. Russia has had a military base in
Tajikistan for 70 years, and the lease of the military base was
extended for another 30 years in a 2012 agreement. The agreement to
deliver military aircraft may be an attempt to counter China's growing
influence.

According to Russian analyst Andrey Serenko, Russia's military
adventures in the Mideast and Ukraine may have left few resources to
keep China from expanding its influence:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a danger in this new alliance, along with
> Pakistan and Afghanistan China is including Tajikistan, which
> Russia has until recently considered part of its zone of
> influence. Russia's involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East
> has resulted in us losing our position in Central Asia. It appears
> that in this 'Central Asian NATO' under the Chinese umbrella,
> Russia may be the odd one out."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Tajikistan also shares a long border with Afghanistan. Increasing
jihadist activity from the Taliban, the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and
Uighur separatists has raised fears of terrorist activity in
Tajikistan, and both China and Russia are concerned.

Furthermore, the jihadist threat from Afghanistan provides a
convenient justification for Russia and China to convince Tajikistan
to allow their troops on Tajikistan's soil. EurasiaNet and Asia-Plus (Tajikistan)

Related Articles

• Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia (29-Sep-2015)
  
  
• Russian troops may take control of Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan (17-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Tajikistan's bitter split with Iran tempts it to side with Saudi Arabia (19-Jan-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, China, Russia, Afghanistan,
Sergey Shoigu, Andrey Serenko,
Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Dec-16 World View -- Asian jihadists become radicalized by Burma's (Myanmar's) Rohingya slaughter

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Evidence of Burma ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas continues to mount
  
• Burma's Rohingya attacks generate calls for military action in Malaysia
  
• Jihadists become radicalized by the Rohingya slaughter
  

****
**** Evidence of Burma ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas continues to mount
****


Rohingya boat people fleeing from violence in Myanmar (Burma)

According to the International Organization for Migration, around
21,000 ethnic Rohingyas from Myanmar (Burma) have fled across the
border from Rakhine state to Bangladesh to escape violence by Burma's
army.

As we've been reporting,
Human
Rights Watch has posted satellite images that show that villages of
Rohingya Muslims are being systematically burned down. Some 30,000
Rohingyas have been displaced. Myanmar officials continue to make the
laughable claims that the Rohingyas are burning down their own homes
to embarrass the government. Burma's government is refusing to allow
journalists into the region where the violence is taking place, but
the BBC World News has broadcast footage of an undercover road trip
through the region, including interviews who says that their husbands
were burnt and killed by soldiers, and that they were repeatedly raped
by soldiers.

The root of the violence is xenophobic attacks by Buddhists led by
Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," against the
Rohingya Muslims, including rapes, torture and other atrocities
committed by Buddhists, targeting the Rohingyas. The Rohingyas have a
darker skin than Burmese, and they speak a Bengali dialect. They are,
for all practical purposes, a stateless ethnic group, living on the
Bangladesh-Burma border for generations, but rejected by both
countries. In fact, Burma refuses to identify the Rohingya as a
unique ethnic group, preferring to call them Bengali, and referring to
them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. In the last few years,
large mobs of Buddhists have massacred entire neighborhoods of Muslims
in various regions of the country, mutilating, raping and killing
hundreds, and displacing thousands from their homes.

Nobel Peace Prize winner and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi has been
praised in the past for her support of human rights, but she is losing
her luster as an international superstar as she is being increasingly
condemned for refusing to speak out to condemn the current Buddhist
violence against the Rohingyas. Under international pressure, Suu Kyi
has formed a special committee to investigate the violence, but the
committee is headed by an army general for the same army that's
committing the violence, so the investigation is not considered
credible. Deutsche Welle and AFP and Bangkok Post

Related Articles

• UN: Burma (Myanmar) committing 'ethnic cleansing' of Rohingyas (29-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Buddhist violence against Muslims in Burma/Myanmar continues to spread (03-Oct-2013)
  

****
**** Burma's Rohingya attacks generate calls for military action in Malaysia
****

It's a rule of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that
member states are forbidden from interfering in each other's internal
affair.

So Malaysia's prime minister Najib Razak violated that rule on Sunday,
when he spoke to thousands at a pro-Rohingya rally in Kuala Lumpur.
He questioned Aung San Suu Kyi's Nobel Prize, given her inaction, and
said to thousands of Malaysians at the rally:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The world cannot sit by and watch genocide taking
> place. The world cannot just say 'look, it is not our problem'. It
> is our problem."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Buddhist monks in Myanmar, from the Nationalist Monk Association, led
a protest of about 150 people in Yangon, holding banners and chanting.
An official in Myanmar said that Najib is wrong:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"What he said in Malaysia is not true. We’re trying
> to solve (this) with the international supporters. But it’s our
> choice, no other country can make (a) decision about our
> country."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

He accused Najib of stoking religious extremism in order to score
political points in Malaysia.

In Malaysia, hundreds of people from the hardline Islamist group
Hizbut Tahrir, marched to the Defense Ministry, and demanded that
Malaysia's army conduct a jihad against Burma. According to the
group's statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>There is no other solution to save Rohingyan Muslims
> except mobilizing the army to Myanmar, because the reality is the
> Arakan [Rakhine State] Muslims are being pummeled by Myanmar’s
> infidel army.
>
> “The Armed Forces is obliged to help the Rohingyan Muslim by
> accepting the Allah’s call for jihad at the kafir harbi [infidels]
> country."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

BBC and
Channel News Asia and Malaysia Mail Online

Related Articles

• Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia (16-May-2015)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  

****
**** Jihadists become radicalized by the Rohingya slaughter
****

The Somali-born student who launched a car-and-knife attack at Ohio
State University this week reportedly protested on his Facebook page
about the killing of minority Muslims in Myanmar. And last weekend,
Indonesian authorities arrested two militants who were allegedly
planning to attack the Myanmar Embassy in Jakarta.

Online extremists in Indonesia have expressed their desire to mount
“jihad” on behalf of the Rohingya, with some supporters hoping that
the ‘mujahidin’ will be able to smuggle into Myanmar. The Rohingya
crisis has become a rallying cry for jihad. Some social media users
in Indonesia have gone to the extent of declaring their readiness to
be suicide bombers for the sake of the Rohingya. The Rohingya issue is
fast developing into a security threat that would have an adverse
impact on peace in the region. VOA and
RSIS (Singapore) and The Statesman (India)

Related Articles

• U.N. alarmed as ethnic violence grows in western Burma (Myanmar) (27-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Burma (Myanmar) declares state of emergency over Buddhist/Muslim violence (11-Jun-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Rohingyas, Bangladesh,
Ashin Wirathu, 969 Movement, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Nationalist Monk Association, Malaysia, Najib Razak, Hizbut Tahrir

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Dec-16 World View -- Venezuela's currency becomes worthless, as Zimbabwe introduces new currency

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela to print 20,000 Bolivar note as currency
  
• Zimbabwe introduces a new currency, 'bond notes'
  

****
**** Venezuela to print 20,000 Bolivar note as currency
****


This entire pile of Venezuelan currency is probably worth less than one American dollar.

The hyperinflation of Venezuela's currency is accelerating
so rapidly that the money printing presses can barely keep up.

After a 180% inflation rate in the year 2015, Venezuela in December
was forced to begin printing 500 and 1000 Bolivar bills, while phasing
out the 2 and 5 Bolivar bills.

The larger currency not only did not solve Venezuela's hyperinflation
problem, it actually exacerbated it, by providing the means for prices
to accelerate even more rapidly. In just one month, November of this
year, the inflation rate was 67%.

This evokes memories of the stories of Germany's Weimar republic,
where the inflation rate reached 1000% per month by November 1923,
with iconic tales of ordinary people buying a loaf of bread with a
wheelbarrow of money. Venezuelans have already begun carrying bags of
cash for every day transactions.

That 1000 Bolivar note, issued in February, that was supposed to solve
Venezuela's currency problems is now worth about 20 American cents.
So Venezuela is now issuing 5,000, 10,000 and 20,000 Bolivar notes,
which will be available from banks on December 15. So the 20,000
Bolivar note is worth about $4 today, and probably will be worth about
4 cents within a few more months.

Venezuela used to be a wealthy country, thanks to oil exports, which
are the country's only major source of revenue. The charismatic
leader Hugo Chávez wasted the oil revenue on pet projects, on buying
votes, and on supporting Cuba's failing economy. Today, Hugo Chávez
is dead and oil prices have crashed. The current president, Nicolás
Maduro, is increasingly using military power and violence to keep the
population under control as the currency collapses. The new
hyperinflated 20,000 Bolivar notes will give a boost to the economy
that will last about a nanosecond, and then they'll trigger even more
hyperinflation and more shortages.

Debt-ridden Venezuela may be forced to officially default in
mid-December. Venezuelanalysis (22-Feb-2016) and International Business Times and CNN Money

Related Articles

• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  
  
• Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners (15-May-2016)
  
  
• Venezuela's economy approaches full-scale hyperinflation (26-Sep-2013)
  
  
• Venezuela moves toward food rationing (10-Sep-2010)
  

****
**** Zimbabwe introduces a new currency, 'bond notes'
****

In a sense, Zimbabwe is a few years ahead of Venezuela.
Zimbabwe has already gone through its hyperinflation phase.

As recently as the 1999, Zimbabwe was a breadbasket of Africa,
exporting up to 500,000 metric tons of surplus food. By 2003,
Zimbabwe was starving. What happened during those three years was a
Marxist socialist "land reform" program by Zimbabwe's president Robert
Mugabe that confiscated 4,500 white-owned commercial farms and
redistributed the property to his own Shona ethnic group.

After 2003, more and more Zimbabweans have been dying of starvation,
because Mugabe has destroyed the farm infrastructure. By 2008, the
official rate of inflation was 231 million percent. By 2009, 35
quadrillion Zimbabwe dollars were worth just one US dollar. Zimbabwe
began to use the dollar, the rand and the euro as its official
currency.

Now Zimbabwe has introduced a new currency called "bond notes,"
each one of which is said to be equal in value to one US dollar.
The given reason for introducing the bond notes is that there are
not enough US dollars in circulation, causing hardship for the
people.

The reason that there aren't enough US dollars in circulation is
because Mugabe has destroyed the economy and there aren't enough
exports. Exports would be used to bring US dollars and other
foreign currencies into the country.

Incredibly, Mugabe is continuing is destruction of the economy. The
word "indigenization" is used by Mugabe to describe confiscating a
farm owned by a white farmer and giving it to one of Mugabe's Shona
tribe cronies, probably someone who doesn't even know how to farm.
That's how Zimbabwe turned from the breadbasket of Africa into a major
food importer.

So now Mugabe is extending his "indigenization" program from farms to
all businesses, requiring all businesses to be majority owned by
Zimbabweans, again mostly cronies from Mugabe's Shona tribe. Zimbabwe
continues to shut down businesses, including foreign banks, that do
not comply with the indigenization requirements.

So anyone can see that this will end badly. The destruction of more
businesses means that there will be fewer products available. In the
meantime, the bond notes will have the same effect that the 20,000
Bolivar note is having in Venezuela -- more bond notes for fewer
products. It looks like Zimbabwe is on its second round of
hyperinflation. Reuters and New Zimbabwe and Independent (South Africa)

Related Articles

• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction (01-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Mass murderer Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has 90th birthday (24-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' president Robert Mugabe continues to destroy his country (04-May-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, Hugo Chávez,
Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, bond notes, indigenization

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Dec-16 World View -- China says its South China Sea military buildup is a boon to the world

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Philippines to reject US use of its bases for South China Sea patrols
  
• China says its South China Sea military buildup is a boon to the world
  
• Vietnam and Australia reject China's claims
  

****
**** Philippines to reject US use of its bases for South China Sea patrols
****


Chinese army soldiers plant vegetables on Fiery Cross Reef, which China has illegally annexed (Global Times)

Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that the country
would not allow the US military to use its base in the Philippines for
its freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea. In the
past, some US aircraft and ships stopped in the Philippines on the way
to the South China Sea patrols, but Lorenzana says that the US can now
instead use its bases in Guam or Okinawa.

The awkward statement comes from the policy of new Philippines
president Rodrigo R. Duterte. He announced a cutoff of relations with
the United States first by calling President Obama the "son of a
whore," and then he traveled to Beijing and sucked up to China's
president Xi Jinping.

China's claims to the South China Sea were eviscerated by a ruling of
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in July.
In particular, the Tribunal said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[The Tribunal] FINDS that Scarborough Shoal has been
> a traditional fishing ground for fishermen of many nationalities
> and DECLARES that China has, through the operation of its official
> vessels at Scarborough Shoal from May 2012 onwards, unlawfully
> prevented fishermen from the Philippines from engaging in
> traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Apparently Duterte ceded the Scarborough Shoal to China in their
meeting, but he was rewarded when China graciously decided to allow
Philippines fishermen to fish there again, as they had been doing for
centuries prior to 2012.

The new announcement by Lorenzana is consistent with Duterte's
policy of submission to China, but it seems unlikely to be popular
with the Philippines people who, as I've previously reported,
have a 92% favorable view of the US, but only a 44% favorable
view of China.

The mutual xenophobia between the Chinese and Philippine people is
substantial, and it would take just one accident or unpleasant
incident to stoke nationalist feelings in one country against the
other, and force Duterte to change his submissive policy. As I've
written many times, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics
it's the masses of people, the generations, not the politicians, who
decide a country's policies. Philippines Star and International Business Times

Related Articles

• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
  
  
• China's media 'accidentally' claim Philippines as part of China (10-May-2012)
  

****
**** China says its South China Sea military buildup is a boon to the world
****

A Chinese military newspaper says that China's vast military buildup
in the South China Sea is a boon to everyone in the region, and to the
whole world. "China's construction in the South China Sea has turned
its islands into the best-equipped, most advanced bases in the region
with airports, hospitals, agriculture and 4G mobile signal."
Furthermore, there are more than 20 scientific research projects,
dealing with issues such as seawater desalination, refuse disposal,
and marine ecology protection.

However, the paper adds, "So this region is advantageous
geographically, and when conflict begins, who controls this region
will dominate." It also quotes a Chinese joke: "When the US sends
their warships to scare us, we just fill in one or two more islands to
make ourselves calm down." Global Times (Beijing)

Related Articles

• China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax (22-Jun-2016)
  
  
• China's military deploys bombers and closes part of the South China Sea (19-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Vietnam and Australia reject China's claims
****

The Vietnamese are not buying the message that China's annexation of
the South China Sea is a boon to the world.

Satellite imagery shows that Vietnam has begun dredging operations in
Ladd Reef in a corner of the Spratly Islands that China is now
annexing, along with the rest of the South China Sea. Although the
purpose of the dredging cannot yet be determined, it appears to
similar to China's activities in creating artificial islands and
military bases. However, the Vietnamese efforts are minuscule
compared China's vast militarization efforts.

Vietnam has also fortified five of its bases in the Spratly Islands
with rocket launchers -- a move described in August by China state-run
media as "a terrible mistake."

Vietnam has its own historic claim to the South China Sea. In 1836,
the King of Hue began dispatching soldiers once a year to the islands,
hunting for pearls, giant clams and salvaged treasure from passing
boats, often European, which sank on treacherous reefs. This regal
connection is significant. According to a Vietnamese official whose
family settled the islands in the 1600s, "Vietnam is the rightful
owner of the Paracels and Spratlys."

Australia is also not buying China's claim that its vast military
expansion in the South China Sea is a boon to the world. According to
one Australian analyst:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"China has built six large islands — three substantial
> air bases and three sizeable electronic surveillance
> installations. With this, China effectively has moved 1100km
> south towards Australia and deep into the geographic heart of the
> Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN].
>
> The new facilities’ size allows China to deploy off northern
> Borneo an air combat force larger and more capable than any
> current ASEAN air force. China can easily enforce an air defense
> identification zone across the South China Sea.
>
> More worryingly, China for the first time poses a realistic air
> threat to Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and all of Borneo. With
> these new air bases, China today militarily dominates the central
> ASEAN region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The analyst recommends that Australia, the US and ASEAN "build
regional resilience to Chinese threats." Empty words, since no such
resilience is possible, short of full-scale war. Australian Broadcasting and The Australian

Related Articles

• Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China (11-Aug-2016)
  
  
• US Navy's Freedom of Navigation Ops in South China Sea to grow in scope and complexity (03-Feb-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Philippines, South China Sea,
Delfin Lorenzana, Rodrigo R. Duterte, Xi Jinping,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, Scarborough Shoal,
Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Vietnam, Australia,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe