Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

(01-21-2018, 11:33 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > So selfish Boomers prevent other countries from exercising their
> sovereign rights in the middle east, Syria in particular as well
> as in Asia, while at the same time preventing anyone younger than
> them from exercising their constitutional rights in the US and
> their national/federal rights in the case of Europe. The boomers
> ARE the 4T crisis, that is the case because western boomers are
> placing the survival of the human race in question simply in order
> to impose their disgusting utopia where every country in the world
> has a democratic global-minded government established
> there. Turkey, Russia, Syria, China, and other countries are
> merely exercising their sovereign rights, as well as Xers, Millies
> and younger people within the west. It is the boomer who seeks to
> lobotomize the human condition. The Boomer establishment will NOT
> succeed in this goal.

Wait a minute. Isn't this message just a copy and paste of your last
200 messages?

You must REALLY hate your father.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Tell me, why when the Serbs waged war in Bosnia back in the 1990s and as the war developed they were finally ready to assault the Bosnian cities in particular, why was there suddenly the appearance of a screen of American and European troops suddenly blocking them? Serbs had done nothing wrong to Americans and Western Europeans, so there was no reason for that screen of forces to be there. The motivations for placing that screen of troops by Western politicians was purely due to the selfishness of western baby boomers and the manifestation of that selfishness.

[pbrower2a]

(01-21-2018, 09:11 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Tell me, why when the Serbs waged war in Bosnia back in the 1990s and as the war developed they were finally ready to assault the Bosnian cities in particular, why was there suddenly the appearance a screen of American and European troops suddenly blocking them? Serbs had done nothing wrong to Americans and Western Europeans, so there was no reason for that screen of forces to be there. The motivations for placing that screen of troops by Western politicians was purely due to the selfishness of western baby boomers and the manifestation of that selfishness.

Maybe it is simpler than that. Murder universally offends the sensibilities of practically everyone. If forty years earlier the victims were Jews and this time the victims were Muslims... so what? It is still wrong. Smaller scale? I find a robbery-murder in a convenience store appalling. If to save one life is to save the world, as one saying goes, to murder one person is at the least a murder of the world.

The British, Americans, and Soviets could do only one thing to thwart the Holocaust, and that was to hasten the victory over the demonic power killing so many people.  But dealing with Serb butchers was far easier. We could do something this time.


Selfish? I consider the effort to thwart Serb butchers a consummately selfless act.

"Selfish Boomers"? Sure. I can tell you all about Boomer elites in ownership, management, and politics. They treat anyone not born into their class like peons and expect us (including Boomers like me not part of such an elite)
to consider such treatment beneficence. Maybe they would have been nicer had they had to do farm chores as kids. Maybe they would be nicer had they not had rooms all to themselves in the Suburbia of the post-WWII era. Maybe they would treat others better had they not found it so easy to avoid doing military service in Vietnam.  The worst Boomers got to grow up like aristocrats , and they could never recognize that their privilege resulted from the toil of others. Those of us Boomers who knew some hardships in life, whether poverty or a handicap, or even doing unglamorous military service, are much more decent. Unfortunately the Boomer elites have deemed us disloyal for having some chips on our shoulders and unworthy of opportunity, so we don't get to shape economic and bureaucratic decisions in more humane ways. 

Selfish? I consider the effort to thwart Serb butchers a consummately selfless act.



Xenakis may be wrong about you. You probably hate your mother just as much as you hate your father. Get help!

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Jan-18 World View -- Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters
  
• Sunday's attacks throw new doubts into claims of 'victory' in Afghanistan
  

****
**** Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters
****


The enormous Kabul Intercontinental Hotel that was under attack for 16 hours this weekend (Tolo News)

The claims by the Afghanistan government and the US-led coalition
forces that the Taliban is finally under control were completely
undermined this weekend by three separate terrorist attacks by the
Taliban.

The most spectacular of the attacks was a 16 hour siege of the
Intercontinental Hotel in the capital city Kabul. Attackers dressed
in army uniforms and armed with automatic weapons stormed the hotel on
Saturday evening. They sprayed the areas with bullets, and forcibly
entered some rooms and killed the people inside.

Social media showed parts of the building catch fire, after which
guests tied sheets together to escape from their rooms.

Afghan security forces fought the attacks in a gun battle that lasted
well into Sunday. Afghan government officials says that four Afghan
civilians and 14 foreigners were among those killed. Other reports
indicate that the death toll was well over 30.

A Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, claimed credit for the
attack, saying, "Our five fighters, Bilal, Ayubi, Khalil, Bashar and
Abid entered the building and conducted the operation that resulted in
the death of 10 foreigners and Afghan government officials." However,
Afghan government officials say that there were only four attackers.

This was not the only Taliban terrorist attack to occur on Sunday.

In Balkh province in northern Afghanistan, the Taliban claimed credit
for an attack that killed 18 Afghanistan militiamen on Sunday.

In Herat province in western Afghanistan, eight people were killed by
a roadside bomb. No one claimed credit, but it's assumed that the
Taliban were responsible. The Taliban were probably targeting police
or the Afghan military, but since the eight people killed were
ordinary civilians, the Taliban would want to avoid the bad publicity
of claiming credit.

There is one thing about Sunday's attacks that I found very
interesting: That there were no claims of credit from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Usually, a militia in
the Taliban carries out these terror attacks, and then the ISIS public
relations agency, Amaq, claims credit for the attack, even though ISIS
was not involved and probably didn't even know it was going to happen
until the read about it online. Now that ISIS has been defeated in
both Syria and Iraq, and the "Islamic State" brand name has been
thoroughly humiliated, it may be that the Amaq PR agency is no longer
in business. At any rate, Taliban terror groups that used to vow
allegiance to ISIS are apparently now back to being just plain, old
Taliban terror groups. Tolo News (Kabul) and Fox News and Al Jazeera and Reuters

****
**** Sunday's attacks throw new doubts into claims of 'victory' in Afghanistan
****

As I've been writing for years, based on a Generational Dynamics
analysis, a "victory" in Afghanistan is impossible. Afghanistan's
last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis
civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are
Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now,
twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era,
and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on
stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the
Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.

There is absolutely no way that this new young generation of Pashtuns
are going to enter into any "peace process" with representatives of
the hated Northern Alliance, brokered by the old geezers in the Kabul
government, supported by the United States. The whole concept of such
a "peace process" is so completely ridiculous and absurd that you'd
have to be a full-time resident of Fantasyland to think that it's
possible.

So the Taliban attack on the International Hotel in Kabul on Sunday
was intended to destroy the credibility of the Afghan government and
the US-led coalition, and it undoubtedly succeeded.

A massive car bombing in Kabul in July
of last year killed 36 and wounded dozens more. It was an
attack on the ethnic Hazara community in Kabul, and the Hazaras were
one of the ethnic groups in the Northern Alliance fighting the
Pashtuns.

In August of last year, dozens of civilian men, women and children,
mostly Hazara Shia Muslims, were massacred in a two-day gun battle
in northern Afghanistan. About 50
people were shot and killed, 30 houses were torched and burned to the
ground, several mosques were set ablaze, and an unknown number of
villagers were taken hostages. Seven Afghan troops and 12 Taliban
militants were killed in the fighting.

With regard to the two other attacks on Sunday, in Balkh province in
northern Afghanistan and Herat province in western Afghanistan, news
reports don't indicate what ethnic groups were targeted, but it's
almost certain that the targets were government forces or Northern
Alliance ethnic groups.

These kinds of attacks are not going to stop. In fact, as more and
more members of this young Pashtun generation come of age, the attacks
are going to increase.

As I wrote in an analysis last year,
the Trump administration is probably well aware that there is
no hope of any meaningful "victory" in Afghanistan, but they may have
a larger purpose in mind. There are several American military bases
in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar
International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war
with China. So remaining in Afghanistan allows us continued use of
those bases, as the war with China and Pakistan approaches.

This may be a similar strategy to the one that the US military is
following in Syria. The US announced a "Border Security Force" (BSF)
and a continuing commitment of forces to Syria to avoid repeating
the 2011 Iraq withdrawal blunder

without leaving any forces behind, allowing the rise of ISIS in Iraq.
The US has backed off from the BSF, now calling it a kind of local
police force, but its purpose is the same - to maintain a residual
American force in Syria to prevent a resurgence of ISIS. The strategy
in Afghanistan is similar -- maintain a residual force in Afghanistan,
not with the hope of defeating the Taliban, but with the ability to
maintain and support valuable military bases.

This is an extremely complex strategy, but it makes a great deal of
sense as war with China and Pakistan approaches. In the meanwhile, we
should expect a lot more bad news. Khaama Press (Kabul) and Stars and Stripes and Tolo News (Kabul)

Related Articles

• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Trump's review of the Afghanistan war seeks solution where none exists (08-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Dozens of Shia Muslims in Afghanistan killed in fourth Taliban victory in 3 weeks (08-Aug-2017)
  
  
• US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder (16-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Intercontinental Hotel,
Taliban, Zabihullah Mujahid, Herat province, Balkh province,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Amaq public relations agency, Pashtuns,
Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Bagram, Kandahar International Airport,
Syria, Border Security Force, BSF

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(01-21-2018, 10:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(01-21-2018, 09:11 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Tell me, why when the Serbs waged war in Bosnia back in the 1990s and as the war developed they were finally ready to assault the Bosnian cities in particular, why was there suddenly the appearance a screen of American and European troops suddenly blocking them? Serbs had done nothing wrong to Americans and Western Europeans, so there was no reason for that screen of forces to be there. The motivations for placing that screen of troops by Western politicians was purely due to the selfishness of western baby boomers and the manifestation of that selfishness.

Maybe it is simpler than that. Murder universally offends the sensibilities of practically everyone. If forty years earlier the victims were Jews and this time the victims were Muslims... so what? It is still wrong. Smaller scale? I find a robbery-murder in a convenience store appalling. If to save one life is to save the world, as one saying goes, to murder one person is at the least a murder of the world.

The British, Americans, and Soviets could do only one thing to thwart the Holocaust, and that was to hasten the victory over the demonic power killing so many people.  But dealing with Serb butchers was far easier. We could do something this time.


Selfish? I consider the effort to thwart Serb butchers a consummately selfless act.

"Selfish Boomers"? Sure. I can tell you all about Boomer elites in ownership, management, and politics. They treat anyone not born into their class like peons and expect us (including Boomers like me not part of such an elite)
to consider such treatment beneficence. Maybe they would have been nicer had they had to do farm chores as kids. Maybe they would be nicer had they not had rooms all to themselves in the Suburbia of the post-WWII era. Maybe they would treat others better had they not found it so easy to avoid doing military service in Vietnam.  The worst Boomers got to grow up like aristocrats , and they could never recognize that their privilege resulted from the toil of others. Those of us Boomers who knew some hardships in life, whether poverty or a handicap, or even doing unglamorous military service, are much more decent. Unfortunately the Boomer elites have deemed us disloyal for having some chips on our shoulders and unworthy of opportunity, so we don't get to shape economic and bureaucratic decisions in more humane ways.   

Selfish? I consider the effort to thwart Serb butchers a consummately selfless act.



Xenakis may be wrong about you. You probably hate your mother just as much as you hate your father. Get help!

I don't remember a vote ever being held regarding intervention in Bosnia, or Iraq or Somalia, or Syria. The government never asks the citizenry for its permission first as it is supposed to as outlined under the constitution.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Jan-18 World View -- More than 100,000 Greeks hold mass protest over 'Macedonia' name change

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece and Macedonia negotiate a contentious name change to replace FYROM
  
• Massive protests in Thessaloniki Greece threaten Tsipras government
  

****
**** Greece and Macedonia negotiate a contentious name change to replace FYROM
****


Hundreds of thousands of Greeks in Thessaloniki on Sunday protest any name change to the Republic of Macedonia that includes the word 'Macedonia' (Kathimerini)

One of the most emotional issues in Greece and the Balkans is taking
center stage over negotiations to change the name of the official
Republic of Macedonia to one that is acceptable to Greece. The
Kingdom of Macedon is an ancient name, dating back centuries BC, and
is the birthplace, in 356 BC, of Alexander the Great.

The Republic of Macedonia declared independence from Yugoslavia in
1991, but Greece objected to its use of that name, claiming that
having that name would give the country a claim to Greece's own
province of Macedonia. The country was admitted to the United Nations
in 1993 under the name the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
(FYROM). It has also been admitted to the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the name FYROM. The European
Union and Nato also recognize only the name FYROM. However many
countries, including Russia and the United States, also recognize the
name Republic of Macedonia, or just Macedonia.

Greece has repeatedly used its veto power to prevent the country
Macedonia from joining either the EU or Nato under any name that
contains the word "Macedonia." As this situation has been going on
for 25 years, there is now a great deal of pressure on the two
countries to come up with a compromise.

The Greek government of prime minister Alexis Tsipras has indicated
that it is willing to allow "Macedonia" to appear in the name,
provided that it's modified or qualified in some way. There are five
proposals on the table:

• The Republic of New Macedonia
  
• The Republic of Northern Macedonia
  
• The Republic of Upper Macedonia
  
• The Vardar Republic of Macedonia
  
• The Republic of Macedonia (Skopje)

The last proposal references the capital city Skopje. The name Vardar
refers to a river that rises in West Macedonia and then south into
Greece, where it is called the Axios River.

Tsipras will be meeting his counterpart, FYROM prime minister Zoran
Zaev, on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in the
Swiss town of Davos, and both men indicate that they'd like to resolve
the issue once and for all, if that's possible. Meta (Macedonia) and B92 (Belgrade) and RFERL and AP (18-Jan)

****
**** Massive protests in Thessaloniki Greece threaten Tsipras government
****

More than 100,000 Greeks rallied on Sunday in Thessaloniki (Salonica),
the capital city of Greece's administrative region of Macedonia. They
were protesting any name change to the country Macedonia that included
the name "Macedonia." In particular, they objected to all five of the
proposed compromise names listed above.

A poll shows that over 68% of the Greek people oppose agreeing to any
use of "Macedonia" in the new name. Politicians from the opposition
party New Democracy are siding with the protesters. The Archbishop of
Athens Ieronymos initially agreed with the protesters, but after a
meeting with Tsipras said that the country now needs "unity" and
"national solidarity" with whatever agreement is reached in Davos.

In April of last year, I wrote an article on Macedonia,
and I included a brief history of Alexander
the Great, referring to him as "the most famous leader in Macedonia's
history." I was astounded when this description resulted in an
extremely vitriolic and long-running comment stream, with comments
coming from all sides -- especially the Macedonians, the Greeks, the
Albanians and the Bulgarians.

In summary, Greek commenters said the following:

• Alexander the Great was Greek, and in fact all Macedonians at
  the time were Greek.
  
  
• Macedonians don't exist any more. The country was taken over by
  Albanians, and colonized by ethnic Bulgarians in the Middle Ages.
  Today's "Macedonians" are really ethnic Bulgarians, with no ties to
  ancient Macedonia.
  
  
• Macedonia is a fake country. It should be split up, with the west
  given to Albania and the east to Bulgaria.

Macedonian comments said the following:

• There are Russian and Turkish documents from the 1700s clearly
  referring to Macedonian as distinct from Serbians or Bulgarians. The
  oldest surviving identity in Europe is Macedonian.
  
  
• Macedonians don't want to be part of Bulgaria, and the Bulgarians
  don't want the Macedonians, because they are Macedonians.

These comments became extremely acrimonious and went on for a long
time. At one point I asked the participants whether there would be
blood on the floor if they were all in the same room together. I
didn't get an answer. All this indicates to me that the Balkans
region, which has been the site of repeated crisis wars throughout
history between the Christian civilization and the Muslim
civilization, may well provide the start of the next major European
war.

Into that context, we now have this emerging issue of the name change
for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to something else.
We'll have to see whether there's anything else that everyone can
agree to. Kathimerini (Athens) and B92 (Belgrade) and Greek Reporter and Meta (Macedonia)

Related Articles

• Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania' (29-Apr-2017)
  
  
• TV audience shocked watching dramatic suicide of Croat commander convicted of war crimes in Bosnian war (30-Nov-2017)
  
  
• European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans (07-May-2017)
  
  
• Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece (22-Aug-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Macedonia, Balkans, Yugoslavia,
Kingdom of Macedon, Alexander the Great,
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, FYROM,
Alexis Tsipras, Zoran Zaev, Vardar River, Axios River,
Thessaloniki, Salonica, Archbishop Ieronymos

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(01-22-2018, 08:31 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(01-21-2018, 10:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(01-21-2018, 09:11 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Tell me, why when the Serbs waged war in Bosnia back in the 1990s and as the war developed they were finally ready to assault the Bosnian cities in particular, why was there suddenly the appearance a screen of American and European troops suddenly blocking them? Serbs had done nothing wrong to Americans and Western Europeans, so there was no reason for that screen of forces to be there. The motivations for placing that screen of troops by Western politicians was purely due to the selfishness of western baby boomers and the manifestation of that selfishness.

Maybe it is simpler than that. Murder universally offends the sensibilities of practically everyone. If forty years earlier the victims were Jews and this time the victims were Muslims... so what? It is still wrong. Smaller scale? I find a robbery-murder in a convenience store appalling. If to save one life is to save the world, as one saying goes, to murder one person is at the least a murder of the world.

The British, Americans, and Soviets could do only one thing to thwart the Holocaust, and that was to hasten the victory over the demonic power killing so many people.  But dealing with Serb butchers was far easier. We could do something this time.


Selfish? I consider the effort to thwart Serb butchers a consummately selfless act.

"Selfish Boomers"? Sure. I can tell you all about Boomer elites in ownership, management, and politics. They treat anyone not born into their class like peons and expect us (including Boomers like me not part of such an elite)
to consider such treatment beneficence. Maybe they would have been nicer had they had to do farm chores as kids. Maybe they would be nicer had they not had rooms all to themselves in the Suburbia of the post-WWII era. Maybe they would treat others better had they not found it so easy to avoid doing military service in Vietnam.  The worst Boomers got to grow up like aristocrats , and they could never recognize that their privilege resulted from the toil of others. Those of us Boomers who knew some hardships in life, whether poverty or a handicap, or even doing unglamorous military service, are much more decent. Unfortunately the Boomer elites have deemed us disloyal for having some chips on our shoulders and unworthy of opportunity, so we don't get to shape economic and bureaucratic decisions in more humane ways.   

Selfish? I consider the effort to thwart Serb butchers a consummately selfless act.



Xenakis may be wrong about you. You probably hate your mother just as much as you hate your father. Get help!

I don't remember a vote ever being held regarding intervention in Bosnia, or Iraq or Somalia, or Syria. The government never asks the citizenry for its permission first as it is supposed to as outlined under the constitution.

Boomers Just don't get it, under constitutional democracy, this should have happened regarding intervention in bosnia. 

1.) the Government requests intervention in Bosnia.

2.) a referendum is scheduled to vote on intervention in Bosnia.

3.) The referendum is held and their is mass vote on the question of intervention.

4.) The results of the referendum are read, if the vote was yes, we intervene, if the vote was no we don't intervene at all unless another referendum is held later and it's vote was yes.

5.) If a "no" vote occurred, the government says it will not do anything in Bosnia because the citizenry have not given the government consent to do so and under the US constitution the government can't make any decisions that are contrary to the will of the people because the government represents the people under US Law.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Jan-18 World View -- China's Mekong River dams criticized for affecting other countries' livelihoods

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's Mekong River dams criticized for affecting other countries' livelihoods
  
• In policy shift, US sides with Indonesia in South China Sea over Natuna Sea
  

****
**** China's Mekong River dams criticized for affecting other countries' livelihoods
****


Floating marketplace in Mekong delta in Vietnam

Multiple dams and hydropower projects being built in China on the
Lancang Jiang River, which becomes the Mekong River when it leaves
China, are having a significant effect on the livelihoods and living
conditions of millions of people along the Mekong River in downstream
countries. The Mekong originates on China's Tibetan plateau and flows
over 4,000 km through southern China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand,
Cambodia and Vietnam.

China has already built six dams along the river, and 11 more are
under construction, with 28 more dams planned in the future. These
large dams upset the ecosystem and threaten the livelihoods for an
estimated 60 million farmers and fishermen living in the lower Mekong
basin, where it nurtures one of the world’s most fertile areas for
agriculture and fishing. Thailand and Vietnam are among the world’s
largest producers of food commodities like rice. Not only do China's
dams affect the water available for irrigation, they disrupt the
migration of fish and block the flow of silt downstream that sustains
riverine environments.

However, this goes beyond ecology. These dams give China control over
the Mekong River, which means that China cause use them as leverage to
control much of the economy of Southeast Asia.

The dispute over the Mekong River is similar to the dispute over the
South China Sea. In the South China Sea, China is using its massive
military power to threaten its neighbors, to annex regions belonging
to other nations, and to build military bases that were declared
illegal by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the
Hague, which eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea.

So now a similar dynamic is occurring along the Mekong River. China
has been building these dams and hydroelectric projects without
concern for the five downstream nations. Furthermore, China controls
water flow according to its own needs, even if it means starving or
flooding downstream inhabitants. China's attitude towards its
neighbors is not surprising. After all, China displaced millions of
its own people to build the Three Gorges Dam, so China's leaders
really couldn't care less about people in other countries.

China's dams have been blamed for several droughts along the Mekong
delta in recent years. China claims that those droughts were all
caused by natural weather changes, but the perception remains that
China is causing the droughts. Furthermore, China's dam building has
negatively affected fishery stocks in the river. Once again, China
claims it's not responsible, but when fishermen are unable to fish,
they are going to blame China.

China's plans don't stop there. China is using its control of the
water as leverage to force downstream countries to allow it to clear
small islands and land features along the entire length of the river,
calling this "navigation channel improvement." This will permit
commercial and military vessels weighing up to 500 metric tons to
travel along the river from China to the South China Sea.

In 1995, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam formed the Mekong River
Commission (MRC) as a forum for managing changes to the river. China
refused to join the MRC, to avoid being bound by its requirement that
developments require consultations with the other members. Instead,
China in 2015 formed a new organization of the four MRC nations plus
Myanmar, the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC), which it controls.
South China Morning Post and Foreign Policy and Jamestown and Cambodia Daily (17-Jan-2017)

Related Articles

• Burma (Myanmar) suspends dam project in major break with China (03-Oct-2011)
  
  
• Instability in Xinjiang causes China to threaten Pakistan (09-Jan-2012)
  

****
**** In policy shift, US sides with Indonesia in South China Sea over Natuna Sea
****

As we reported in September, Indonesia announced that it would rename
the part of the South China Sea within its own exclusive economic zone
(EEZ) as the "North Natuna Sea," causing China to throw a temper
tantrum. ( "10-Sep-17 World View -- China demands that Indonesia end plans to rename its own territorial waters"
)

The US has so far stayed completely out of this particular dispute,
but on Tuesday US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, in a meeting in
Jakarta with Indonesia's Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu, said the
United States would help Indonesia play a central role in the region,
and would help it to maintain maritime security in the "North Natuna
Sea." This use of the phrase "North Natuna Sea" is being considered a
US endorsement of Indonesia's position.

It should be noted that the waters under discussion here are part of
Indonesia's EEZ, but are far, far, far away from China. Most of
China's claims have been labeled as invalid by the United Nations
Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, but this particular claim
by China is clearly completely delusional, as can be seen on any map.

The Trump administration is becoming increasingly confrontational with
China's illegal claims in the South China Sea. There are regular
FONOPs (Freedom of navigation operations) in the South China Sea,
where a US warship travels through international waters illegal
claimed by China, causing China to throw more temper tantrums. The
endorsement of Indonesia's claim to the "North Natuna Sea" is one more
step on that path. UPI and South China Morning Post

Related Articles

• China demands that Indonesia end plans to rename its own territorial waters (10-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' (21-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mekong River, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand,
Cambodia, Vietnam, China, Lancang Jiang River,
South China Sea, Three Gorges Dam,
Indonesia, North Natuna Sea, Jim Mattis, Ryamizard Ryacudu,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
Mekong River Commission, MRC, Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, LMC

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Jan-18 World View -- Egypt's presidential election becomes a farce as opposition candidates are forced out

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's presidential election becomes a farce as opposition candidates are forced out
  
• Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam
  

****
**** Egypt's presidential election becomes a farce as opposition candidates are forced out
****


Outsized election poster of al-Sisi in Cairo (Reuters)

Egypt's presidential election, to be held on March 26-28, is looking
more and more like a farce, as opponents of the current president
Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, are being forced to withdraw, one after the
other. It may be that al-Sisi will be the only person left on the
ballot.

Sami Anan, a retired army Chief of Staff and a former member of
Egypt’s Supreme Council of Armed Forces, was arrested on Tuesday, two
days after announcing that he would run for president. He was dragged
from his car on Tuesday morning and taken before a military court. He
has not been seen since.

Anan was arrested on the charge of announcing that he would run for
president. This was a violation of the law, according to authorities,
because Anan was affiliated with the armed forces. He's also charged
with inciting a rift between the Armed Forces and the Egyptian public.
Officials said that he was "summoned for interrogation in front of
specialized personnel" for his crimes. Needless to say, Anan's
candidacy has been withdrawn.

That's the way this election is going. The presidential election will
take place on March 26-28, and al-Sisi, who was himself the former
chief of Egypt's armed forces, recently announced that he will run for
re-election. But magically, one after another, al-Sisi's potential
opponents are being forced to withdraw.

On November 29 of last year, Colonel Ahmed Konsowa announces his plans
to run for president, but three days later he was arrested, and
convicted of "expressing political opinions as a serving military
officer."

Mohammed Anwar al-Sadat is the nephew of the former Egyptian president
Anwar al-Sadat, who was assassinated in October, 1981, by extremists
who blamed him for signing a peace deal with Israel.

Mohammed Anwar al-Sadat had planned to run for president, but
dropped out last week because his campaign staff was being
threatened. According to al-Sadat:

<QUOTE>"The logic says the regime should allow two or three
or four people to run against Sisi to make it look legitimate. But
it seems like they don’t even care about how it looks
anymore."<END QUOTE>

A left-wing rights lawyer Khaled Ali said that he would run on
November 6 of last year. He was arrested for making "an obscene
gesture" outside a Cairo court. Several members of his campaign were
arrested on various charges. Anan's arrest on Tuesday was apparently
the last straw, as Ali withdrew on Wednesday. According to a
supporter,

<QUOTE>"[T]here was a widespread feeling that we won’t be
given a chance to compete.

Anan’s arrest in this rough manner added [to] the impression that
this regime wants a referendum, not competitive elections. We
wanted a true competition. We didn’t want to take part in a play
or provide material for the regime to claim these are genuine
elections."<END QUOTE>

There's still one major contender opposing al-Sisi. Mortada Mansour,
an MP more right-wing than al-Sisi, announced his bid on January 13,
and has until January 29 to get 25,000 nomination signatures, with a
minimum of 1,000 each from 15 of Egypt's 29 provinces. Mansour
announced that his first act as president would be to ban access to
Facebook.

The Sadat, Ali and Anan campaigns say that they routinely experienced
interference or intimidation. Al-Sisi's reelection seems assured, as
dissent has been crushed, and all three were forced to withdraw,
showing what a farce the election is becoming. Africa News and Guardian (London) and Telegraph (London)

Related Articles

• Egypt in state of emergency after terrorist attack in Sinai (26-Oct-2014)
  
  
• Generational Dynamics analysis of the crisis in Egypt (28-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Egypt's army deposes Morsi in a non-coup coup (04-Jul-2013)
  

****
**** Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam
****

Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi says that he does not want war
with Ethiopia and Sudan, but tensions are rising nonetheless over the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Ethiopia is constructing
on the Blue Nile river.

In a televised broadcast last week, al-Sisi said:

<QUOTE>"We are not prepared to go to war against our brethren
or anyone else for that matter. I am saying this as a clear
message to our brothers in Sudan and Ethiopia.

Egypt neither conspires nor meddles in anyone's internal
affairs. We are determined to have good relations [with Sudan and
Ethiopia]. Our region has seen enough the past few
years."<END QUOTE>

Nonetheless, one does not declare that he doesn't want to go to war
unless he's actually thinking about going to war.

Ethiopia's $5 billion GERD project is soon to be completed, and will
be the largest hydroelectric dam project in Africa. Ethiopia
says that the GERD will provide power to millions of people in
desperate need of electric power, and it sees GERD as a means
over overcoming poverty.

However, it will also reduce the flow of water downstream to Egypt.
Egypt depends on the Nile river to supply most of Egypt's drinking
war, to irrigate the Nile Delta, and to generate half of the country's
electricity through the operation of Egypt's Aswan High Dam.

The GERD dispute is becoming a part of the larger regional dispute
related to the blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, United
Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt.

Turkey, which backs Qatar, has a relationship with Sudan and Somalia,
while Ethiopia and Sudan have a strategic alliance. Egypt's and
Eritrea's leaders met recently to discuss mutual interests.

It seems unlikely that Egypt and Ethiopia will go to war, but the
chances of war could increase as the GERD project nears completion.
VOA and Al Jazeera and Egypt Independent

Related Articles

• Egypt accused of 'dirty deal' to sabotage an Ethiopian dam project (05-Feb-2017)
  
  
• With Egypt's contraceptive shortage, Cairo becomes the world's fastest growing city (24-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Ethiopia,
Sami Anan, Ahmed Konsowa, Anwar al-Sadat, Mohammed Anwar al-Sadat,
Khaled Ali, Mortada Mansour, Blue Nile,
Ethiopia, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, GERD, Aswan High Dam,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Sudan

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities
  
• Migrant workers built modern China, and are now being discarded
  

****
**** In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities
****


A rare street protest in Beijing against demolitions of migrant homes and businesses (Getty)

The mayor of China's capital city Beijing has announced that workers
would demolish 15 square miles of homes used by low-paid migrant
workers. Many migrants have lived in these homes for years or
decades, but now the city is declaring the homes to be illegal
structures. The migrants will be evicted and left homeless.

Officials are not saying how many migrant workers would be evicted by
the demolitions this year. However, in general terms, Beijing would
like to reduce the population of Beijing by 15%, and this would fall
most heavily on the estimated 3 million migrant workers living in
Beijing, or 450,000. (Other reports estimate 8 million migrant
workers in Beijing. The larger figure may include suburbs.)

In December of last year, a demolition campaign evicted tens of
thousands of migrant workers in just one month alone, so these figures
seem to be credible.

Some demolitions had been going on slowly for years, but when a
shantytown fire on November 18 killed 19 people, the demolitions and
evictions took on a shape that's being described a "vicious" and
"cruel."

People were given only few hours' notice before their homes were
demolished, and they were forced into the sub-zero December
temperatures. The demolitions included small businesses as well as
homes, causing many migrants to lose their life savings as well as
their source of income. Many migrants had been supporting their
families by sending money back to them, but that source of support was
cut off overnight.

Chinese intellectuals have petitioned the government to halt the
evictions, calling them a violation of human rights. Even some state
media have criticized the campaign. According to Yi Fuxian, a China
population expert, the government has called migrants a low-end
population - basically implying that they're inferior quality human
beings. "China didn't just say this. They actually wrote it into
government documents. This is absurd," says Yi. Reuters and Shanghaiist (24-Nov) and BBC and
NPR (4-Dec-2017)

Related Articles

• China drives thousands of Beijing migrants out into the winter cold (01-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Mongol invasion of China in 1206 has impact today (06-Dec-2010)
  

****
**** Migrant workers built modern China, and are now being discarded
****

Whenever a large number of foreign migrants travel from one region to
another, the reactions of the natives generally range from
marginalization to open hostility to violence, sometimes ending in
deportation. In Beijing, the migrants are not foreigners. They're
ordinary Chinese from farms and rural areas who come to the city to
improve themselves, or to earn money to send back to their families.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), there are an
estimated 282 million rural migrant workers in China, making up more
than one third of the entire working population of 807 million.

Migrants work are almost always marginalized and work in low-paid
jobs. They're subject to various kinds of abuse, including forced
overtime and non-payment of salaries. The vast majority of rural
migrant workers are still employed in low-paid jobs in manufacturing,
construction and services. According to NBS figures, the employment
by sector is as follows:

• Manufacturing - 31%
  
• Construction - 20%
  
• Sales - 12%
  
• Household services etc. - 11%
  
• Transport and logistics - 6%
  
• Hotel and catering services - 6%
  
• Others - 14%

The millions of migrants living in Beijing, often for decades, were
the laborers who built Beijing into the huge metropolis that it is
today. Now their work is done, and they're being left cold, broke and
homeless.

Although news stories have focused mainly on Beijing, thanks
to the shantytown fire on November 18, we're apparently seeing
a major change in Chinese policy that affects all large cities,
and possibly medium sized cities as well.

The likely causes of this change of policy are as follows:

• Beijing and other large cities suffer from massive
  traffic jams and massive bouts of choking pollution, calling
  for a reduction in population.
  
  
• Beijing and other large cities need to build new roads and
  other infrastructure, requiring that the "illegal" homes of
  millions of migrant workers be demolished. Out with the old,
  in with the new.
  
  
• China has recently changed its "one-child policy" to a "two-child
  policy," threatening even larger population gains in the large
  cities.
  
  
• There are signs of a great deal of xenophobia between the elite
  residents of the cities, and the low-paid migrants who do all the
  work.

This kind of major demographic policy change can only put strain on
China's economy, which is already running on a huge debt bubble and a
huge real estate bubble.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this split could be
significant as the first signs of a new internal rebellion, for which
China is overdue. China's history is filled with huge, massive
internal rebellions (civil wars), the most recent of which were the
White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and
Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49). The leaders of China's
Communist Party (CCP) are well aware of this history, and they're
aware that a new internal rebellion is now due, and probably overdue.

China used to publish the number of "mass incidents" occurring in the
country. The number of "mass incidents" of unrest recorded by the
Chinese government grew from 8,700 in 1993 to about 90,000 in 2010,
according to several government-backed studies. The government
stopped publishing the figures in 2010, but it's reasonable to believe
that the number of mass incidents per year is well into the hundreds
of thousands. If even just one of these mass incidents occurred in
America or Europe, it would be international news, so the fact that
hundreds of such mass incidents occur in China EVERY DAY indicates how
socially unstable China is.

So you already have an economy running on a huge debt bubble, with
hundreds of thousands of mass incidents per year, and with millions of
marginalized migrants scheduled to lose their homes and their jobs,
when the country is well into a generational Crisis era. China's
next, massive, historic internal rebellion is overdue, and this new
policy could end up being one of the triggers. China Labor Bulletin (Hong Kong) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 5-Jan) and The Diplomat (26-Jul-2017)

Related Articles

• China says that increasing numbers of 'major mass incidents' threaten government (10-Dec-2006)
  
  
• China Prime Minister warns country becoming unstable (24-Jan-2006)
  
  
• China's Wen Jiabao warns of unrest and widespread environmental destruction (07-Mar-2013)
  
  
• Up to 50,000 workers riot and clash with police in southeast China (26-Dec-2004)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Beijing, migrants,
Yi Fuxian, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS,
White Lotus Rebellion, Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Jan-18 World View -- Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement
  
• War becomes more likely as Mali enters a generational Crisis era
  

****
**** Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement
****


Djenna Mosque in Timbuktu, Mali, built around 1300, was under attack by Tuareg rebellion

A spate of jihadist terror attacks in central Mali on Thursday left
nearly forty people dead. At least 26 people were killed in a
landmine explosion that was targeting the UN's peacekeeping mission in
Mali. The peacekeeping mission is named MINUSMA, or the
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission. There were two
further attacks, also on Thursday in central Mali, killing seven
jihadists and two soldiers.

The irony is that, whether by accident or on purpose, the jihadist
attacks occurred just after the UN Security Council (UNSC) issued a
statement criticizing the government and several ethnic groups in Mali
for not implementing a 2015 peace agreement. The Security Council
threatened additional sanctions against officials in Mali if the terms
of the peace deal haven't been implemented by the end of March.

Once again, watching a UNSC "peace process" in action, one has the
feeling that one is watching a farce. The 2015 peace agreement was
signed by the government and by several ethnic and rebel groups who
are mostly cooperating with the government. But Mali is a huge
country and the agreement does not cover all of it, and of course the
jihadists that conducted Thursday's attacks were not party to the
agreement at all. So it's hard to see how the agreement even makes
any sense.

Apparently the thought behind the agreement is that government and
these rebel groups would work together to defeat the jihadists, and so
bring peace to the land. If they really wanted to do that, then they
wouldn't need a peace agreement, and anyway, Mali is too large a
country to be governable.

The UN Security Council statement is actually quite interesting, since
it lists all the things that the parties have to do to bring peace to
Mali. Here are some excerpts:

<QUOTE>"The members of the Security Council expressed a
shared sense of impatience regarding the persistent delays in the
full implementation of key provisions of the Agreement. They
underscored the pressing need to deliver tangible and visible
peace dividends to the population in the north and other parts of
Mali. ...

The members of the Security Council stressed in this context the
importance of taking immediate and concrete action to fully and
expeditiously deliver on key provisions of the Agreement, in
particular through: progress in the decentralization process,
including through the holding of appropriate consultations between
the parties aimed at reviewing and strengthening consensus on
existing legislation and through the adoption of legislation
establishing a regional territorial police force; the
operationalization of the interim administrations in the north of
Mali, including through the allocation of the necessary human,
technical and financial resources to perform their missions;
progress in the cantonment and disarmament, demobilization and
reintegration processes, including through the definition of
adequate eligibility criteria and reintegration quotas and through
the submission of finalized lists of candidates, as well as
progress in the security sector reform, with a view to the
progressive redeployment of the reconstituted armed and security
forces in Mali; the establishment of the Operational Coordination
Mechanism in Kidal and Timbuktu; and ensuring full and equal
participation of women."<END QUOTE>

That's an interesting list of tasks. It's a shame that none of them
has much to do with ending jihadist attacks or bringing peace.

And notice the last task "and ensuring full and equal participation of
women." This shows what a farce this is. Instead of worrying about
stopping jihadist attacks, they're worried that the security forces
will be half men and half women. You'd think that this was a parody
dreamed up by people who want to mock and ridicule the United Nations,
but no, this is the real thing. Radio France Internationale (RFI) and AP and United Nations

****
**** War becomes more likely as Mali enters a generational Crisis era
****

The downfall of Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 created a
domino effect that led to a rebellion in northern Mali by the Tuaregs,
an ethnic groups spread across northern Africa's Sahel region between
Libya and Mali. The domino effect continued when the chaos of the
Tuareg rebellion led to an al-Qaeda linked jihadist incursion.

The jihadists were briefly chased out by France's Operation Serval,
but they returned, and led to other rebel and jihadist groups to enter
the region. There were numerous international efforts, mainly led by
France, to eject the rebel and jihadist groups. The most ambitious
was Operation Barkhane, an offensive deployed in 2014 in five
countries, which sought to fight jihadists in five countries -- Mali,
Mauritania, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. The United Nations
peacekeeping effort, the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization
Mission (MINUSMA), was established on April 25, 2013.

It was just a week ago that we reported that Britain agreed to send three RAF CH-47 Chinook transport heavy lift helicopters
to provide logistical support to
France's Operation Barkhane, along with 50-60 support staff.

MINUSMA has been pretty much a failure, and has come under increasing
criticism. According to a United Nations analysis released earlier
this week, MINUSMA is being reassessed.

Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping
Operations, says the following:

<QUOTE>"Five years after the Mission’s establishment and two
years and a half after the signature of the peace agreement, we
believe the time has come to reassess the assumptions that
underpin MINUSMA’s presence, review its key mandated tasks against
achievements on the ground and reexamine the Mission’s layout
through a comprehensive strategic review."<END QUOTE>

Of course, this political gobbledygook really says nothing, but it
does express increasing anxiety over what's taking place.

Now, that statement was released before Thursday's attack targeting
the MINUSMA peacekeepers themselves. In general, jihadists are
increasingly targeting UN peacekeepers, and this is no exception.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this appears to be a
textbook case of what happens when a country is about to enter a
generational Crisis era.

Mali's last generational crisis war was the Tuareg rebellion that
climaxed in 1963.

After a crisis civil war reaches a climax and is settled, the
traumatized survivors reach an agreement to make sure that nothing
like it ever happens again. But as younger generations grow up after
the war, low-level violence begins and increases. As the war
survivors die off, this violence becomes more violent and occurs more
often, although the war survivors prevent it from tipping into
full-scale war.

Based on examination of hundreds of examples in all places and times
in history, Generational Dynamics has found that a turning point is
reached 58 years after the climax of the preceding crisis war, which
is the time when the country enters a new generational Crisis era
("fourth turning"). That seems to be the point in time when the
generations of war survivors disappear (retire or die) so completely
that they're unable to prevent another war, and so a new crisis war
can begin in any of the years that follow.

So 2018 is the 55th year after the end of the 1963 Tuareg Rebellion.
History has shown that's a little too early for full-scale war to
occur. But as each year passes, there are fewer and fewer war
survivors around, and there are more and more kids in the younger
generations with a thirst for war.

This is what we're seeing now. The United Nations Security Council
made a 2015 peace agreement with representatives of the old geezers in
the war survivor generation. The agreement is nice to have, but it's
completely irrelevant to the increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic
younger generations. So there is zero probability that the 2015
agreement will be implemented, and there is zero probability that
MINUSMA or the United Nations will have any success whatsoever in
quelling the violence in Mali, which is only going to increase.
IRIN News and United Nations
and 2015 Mali Peace Agreement and BBC (20-Aug-2017)

Related Articles

• Britain and France renew 1904 Entente Cordiale with new military agreement (19-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Timbuktu's ancient history at risk over chaotic Mali rebellion (04-Apr-2012)
  
  
• Tuareg rebels declare independent state of Azawad in northern Mali (07-Apr-2012)
  
  
• Mali conflict explodes into ground war and hostage crisis (17-Jan-2013)
  
  
• Mali hotel terror attack highlights al-Qaeda's strength in Africa (21-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Jihadist attacks in Mali surge with rise of al-Qaeda linked JNIM (04-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Tuareg, Timbuktu, Djenna Mosque,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission, MINUSMA,
Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, France, Operation Serval, Operation Barkhane,
Jean-Pierre Lacroix

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Jan-18 World View -- New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95
  
• Trump doubles down on war on Taliban in Afghanistan
  

****
**** New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95
****


A distant view of the explosion in Kabul on Saturday (Khaama Press)

Exactly one week after a spectacular 16 hour siege by the Taliban of
the Intercontinental Hotel in Afghanistan's capital city Kabul,
killing dozens, a new suicide bomber struck on Saturday.

The new attack was a massive bombing by a suicide attacker in an
ambulance killed at least 95 people and wounded 158, almost all
innocent civilians. The ambulance got through security checkpoints by
claiming that he was carrying a person to a hospital. When one
checkpoint officer got suspicious, the driver blew up the ambulance,
which was full of explosives.

The Taliban have not yet claimed responsibility for this attack
because of the the bad PR they get when they kill innocent
civilians. It's suspected that the ambulance driver was trying
to reach the Interior Ministry building in order to kill
government officials.

Both last week's attack and this one occurred in areas that
are supposed to be under heavy security. Government officials
are coming under heavy public criticism for being unable to
prevent these attacks.
Tolo News (Kabul) and Khaama Press (Kabul)

****
**** Trump doubles down on war on Taliban in Afghanistan
****

President Donald Trump issued a statement condemning Saturday's terror
attack:

<QUOTE>"I condemn the despicable car bombing attack in Kabul
today that has left scores of innocent civilians dead and hundreds
injured. This murderous attack renews our resolve and that of our
Afghan partners.

The Taliban's cruelty will not prevail. The United States is
committed to a secure Afghanistan that is free from terrorists who
would target Americans, our allies, and anyone who does not share
their wicked ideology. Now, all countries should take decisive
action against the Taliban and the terrorist infrastructure that
supports them."<END QUOTE>

The idea of defeating the Taliban is fantasy, for reasons I've reported many times in the past.

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody
Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic
Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus
the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a
generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is
coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the
atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for
revenge.

This rising generation of young terrorist Pashtuns cannot be defeated
by any conventional or unconventional army. They're capable of
forming cells, living off the land, and conducting terror attacks at
any time, targeting the government and the ethnic groups in the
Northern Alliance. What Trump calls "the Taliban's cruelty" is
actually their revenge for the atrocities that were committed against
their parents over 20 years ago. This is not going to end because of
some piece of paper drawn up by government ministers in Kabul, and
anyone who things so is living in a world of total fantasy.

In August of last year, Trump gave an Afghanistan strategy
speech announcing that some 4,000 more American troops would
be sent to Afghanistan, in order to achieve "victory."

As I described at the time,

Trump promised victory by redefining "victory":

<QUOTE>"Our troops will fight to win. We will fight to win.
From now on, victory will have a clear definition: attacking our
enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al Qaeda, preventing the
Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, and stopping mass terror
attacks against America before they emerge."<END QUOTE>

When you think about it, this definition of "victory" has already been
almost completely achieved. Going down the list, we attack our
enemies, ISIS has been defeated in Syria and Iraq, al-Qaeda has been
at least partially crushed, the Taliban are not taking over
Afghanistan, and there haven't been any mass terror attacks against
America.

But this definition of "victory" doesn't say anything about bringing
peace to Afghanistan, nor does it promise an end to terror suicide
bomber attacks in Kabul. As far as Trump's definition of victory in
Afghanistan is concerned, it's pretty much already been achieved,
despite Saturday's bombing.

As I've written in the past, Trump appears to have a larger purpose in
mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, Trump wants to keep
American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain
several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air
bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will
be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances,
having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are
defeated or not. Fox News and India Today and CBS News

Related Articles

• Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters (22-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Trump's review of the Afghanistan war seeks solution where none exists (08-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Taliban,
Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Bagram, Kandahar International Airport

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Jan-18 World View -- Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden
  
• Brief generational history of South Yemen
  

****
**** Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden
****


Map of Yemen showing regions held by Houthis and allies, Government forces and allies, and al-Qaeda presence (al-Jazeera)

Dozens of people were killed or wounded on Sunday in the port city of
Aden on the southern coast of Yemen, as the result of clashes between
the forces of the official government of Yemen, backed by Saudi
Arabia, versus the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist
faction backed by United Arab Emirates (UAE), and claiming Aden as the
capital city of Southern Yemen.

A week ago, Yemen was in the midst of a proxy war between two
different governments backed by two different foreign countries. But
now, at this moment, Yemen's proxy war now has three different three
different governments, backed by three different foreign countries:

• The internationally recognized government, led by President
  Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who has been hiding out in Saudi Arabia
  because of the war with the Houthis. The Prime Minister of this
  government is Ahmed bin Dagher, who has been governing from Aden.
  
  
• The Houthis, an Iran-backed Shia ethnic group from northwestern
  Yemen, which invaded and conquered Yemen's capital city Sanaa in
  2013-14, taking control of all the government buildings.
  
  
• The Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by United Arab
  Emirates (UAE), which wants South Yemen to secede and become a
  separate country with Aden as its capital and STC as its
  government.

In addition, there's one more major non-government force in Yemen, and
that's Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In recent years,
AQAP's leadership has turned from harshly ideological Sharia policies
that alienated the tribal populace into pragmatists that are making
allies of tribal leaders, by providing security, protection, and a
measure of stability.

Since Saudi Arabia and UAE are supposed to be allies, this development
is being called a "war within a war." There have been reports that
officials in both Saudi Arabia and UAE are ordering their militaries
to stop shooting in Aden, and to resolve the issues. If the shooting
does not stop, then it will be AQAP that gains in the south, and the
Houthis that will gain in the north. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and The National (UAE) and Jamestown

****
**** Brief generational history of South Yemen
****

Because of its location, the port city of Aden has been strategically
important for centuries. In 1839, Britain captured the port of Aden
and southern Yemen from the Ottomans, and was made part of British
India. Britain ruled Aden and southern Yemen, consisting of 24 tribal
states (sultanates, emirates and sheikdoms), until the 1960s.

Yemen's last generational crisis war was the Yemen Civil war, which
began in 1962, and was largely a proxy war involving forces from
Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Britain, the United States, and
(pre-revolutionary) Iran. The Yemen Civil War ended in 1968, and in
the diplomacy that followed, in February 1970 Yemen was split into the
Yemen Arab Republic (YAR, North Yemen) allied with Saudi Arabia, and
the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY, South Yemen), a
Marxist communist country allied with Russia. South Yemen was the
Arab world's only communist state so far.

In 1990, at the end of the generational Recovery era, the two
countries were unified into a single country, Yemen, in an agreement
designed to eliminate all the tensions between the two countries. In
many ways, this was a marriage of convenience, since relations
remained tense, but it put Ali Abdullah Saleh into a clear position of
leadership. There was an attempt at secession by southern
secessionists in 1994, but it was put down quickly, leading to the
entrenchment of Saleh's northern-based regime. Saleh governed Yemen
most of the time since then, until he was killed in December, 2017.

Saleh was the country's president until 2011, when he was ousted as an
outcome of the "Arab Spring" that affected countries throughout the
region. Saleh was forced to turn the office of president over to his
vice president, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi. Saleh then formed a "marriage
of convenience" with the Iran-back Shia Zaydi Houthis in northwest
Yemen. On September 21, 2014, Saleh and the Houthis captured Sanaa
from Hadi's forces. Hadi was forced to flee Sanaa, and has been
living in exile in Saudi Arabia for two years. From the point of view
of the international community, Hadi is still president of Yemen.

Since 2015, the war in Yemen was largely a proxy war between Iran
versus a Saudi Arabia - United Arab Emirates (UAE) coalition. In
November 2017, Saudi Arabia imposed a land, air and sea blockade on
Yemen, giving as a reason to prevent the Houthis from importing more
of Iran's weapons systems.

This blockade was a humanitarian disaster for Yemen. Yemen is already
one of the poorest countries in the world, and because of the proxy
war, mass starvation and disease have been spreading across the
country. Aid from NGOs was only partially relieving the situation,
but with the Saudi blockade, even that aid was cut off.

The blockade was apparently too much for Saleh. Early in December he
announced that he was separating from the Houthis, and offered to
mediate a ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Three days
later, the Houthis had him ambushed and killed.

The death of Saleh fragmented tribal opposition to the Houthis
in North Yemen, giving the Houthis more substantial control over
the north.

Now the UAE is backing the secessionist Southern Transitional Council
(STC), indicating that the coalition fighting the Houthis is also
fragmenting. In addition to making it even harder for NGOs to provide
aid, to help prevent massive starvation and cholera, this "war within
a war" will help AQAP gain further control through alliances with
other tribes.

Writing anything about Yemen, you can't help but feel sorry for this
poor country. Because of the country's strategic location, everyone
wants a piece of it, and they're willing to fight proxy wars to get a
piece. It's only the people suffering endless misery and poverty, as
helpless pawns subject to constant bombings, starvation and cholera.
It reminds one of the old African proverb: When elephants fight, it's
the grass that suffers. History.com and Global Security and Harvard - History of Yemen Civil War - 1962-68 (PDF)

Related Articles:

• Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition (03-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh killed in Houthi ambush (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen (21-Aug-2016)
  
  
• War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces (05-Jan-2015)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Yemen's president Saleh hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns (31-May-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Aden, Houthis, Iran,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Southern Transitional Council, STC,
Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP,
Yemen Civil War, Russia, Egypt, Britain,
Yemen Arab Republic, YAR, North Yemen,
People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, PDRY, South Yemen,
Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Ahmed bin Dagher

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Jan-18 World View -- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea
  
• North Korea cancels joint cultural event because of 'insulting' media reports
  
• Brief generational history of South Korea since World War II
  

****
**** NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea
****


The Korean women's hockey team is planned to include players from both countries (AP)

Mainstream journalists, analysts and economists are generally
incapable of grasping even the simplest generational concepts, so on
the extremely rare occasion when a major publication publishes an
actual generational analysis it's worth noting.

An article in the NY Times by Choe Sang-Hunjan titled "Olympic Dreams
of a United Korea? Many in South Say, ‘No, Thanks’" gives a
generational analysis of South Korea as the Winter Olympics games
approach, and the changing attitudes to reunification of different
South Korean generations.

The article quotes surveys that show a big gap in attitudes between
younger and older South Koreans:

• Across the population, support for reunification has fallen to
  57.8%, down from 69.3% just four years ago.
  
  
• However, 71.2% of South Koreans in their 20s oppose reunification,
  while more than 47% of those 60 and older said the two Koreas must
  reunify "because they belong to the same nation."
  
  
• A "historic agreement" for the North and the South to form a joint
  women's hockey team has been called an "unprecedented breakthrough"
  in relations between the two countries. However, more than 72% of
  South Korean adults overall, and 82% of those in their 20s and 30s,
  oppose it, with many expressing anger that some South Korean players
  would cede their positions to North Koreans.
  
  
• According to one researcher, "Especially men in their 20s, about
  half of them, consider North Korea an outright enemy. To young South
  Koreans, North Korea is someone they don’t want anything to do
  with."

The article quotes a former South Korean foreign minister: "I am taken
aback. Young people seem to think of North Korea as strangers who
barge into their party bringing with them nothing but empty spoons."

The current left-wing South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has long
supported unification, driven by his personal desire to see his
birthplace in the North.

According to the article:

<QUOTE>"Key members of Mr. Moon’s presidential office and
governing party are progressives in their 50s, who went to college
in the 1980s. Then, campuses were rife with anti-American
activism, partly driven by resentment over the division of the
Korean Peninsula after World War II. Students defied the
authorities by sending a “unification envoy” to the World Festival
of Youth and Students, alternative games that North Korea held in
Pyongyang in 1989 to counter the previous year’s Summer Olympics
in Seoul.

Progressives in that era believed in a peaceful process of
reunification, built on the expansion of economic and social
exchanges. Today, many of that generation see the North’s nuclear
weapons program as a desperate attempt to protect itself from the
United States and the South, with which it is still technically at
war."<END QUOTE>

These paragraphs need a bit of interpretation. As I'll explain in
detail below, what the article calls 1980s "progressives" are known as
the "386 Generation" of the 1980s -- affluent, highly
pro-Leninist-Marxist and highly anti-American, since they had no
memory of their parents' extreme poverty and destitution, nor of how
an American military intervention saved South Korea from the North in
1950.

However it is true, as the article points out, that the 386er
generation strongly believed that the communist government of North
Korea was superior to Western democracies, and that the South and the
North could be unified peacefully if only the South could adopt that
same kind of government. Events since then, especially "the fiasco of
the 386 generation" (described below), and North Korea's unstoppable
nuclear missile development, have forced the 386ers to abandon those
extreme radical views, and look for opportunities for peaceful
negotiations. The 2018 Winter Olympics games are the best opportunity
so far. NY Times (or Open version)

****
**** North Korea cancels joint cultural event because of 'insulting' media reports
****

On Monday, North Korea abruptly canceled a joint cultural event to be
held on February 4 in the North Korean territory of Mount Kumgang.
The plan had been for skiers from both sides to train in North Korea's
Masikryong Ski Resort.

The North blamed the South Korean media for encouraging “insulting”
public sentiment regarding the North. There were no specifics given,
but South Korea has a free press, and there has been a lot of
criticism of North Korea. There have also been individual protests,
including burning a picture of North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un,
which would be a capital offense if done in North Korea. However,
it's not known whether those were the problem.

It's suspected that the North is angry about media coverage of North
Korean plans to stage a large military parade in Pyongyang on February
8, just before the start of the Olympics. Some media reports say that
some 50,000 North Korean soldiers will march in the parade, which will
feature the latest in North Korean weapons, including ballistic
missiles. These reports may be the reason why they canceled
the cultural event.

The South Korea's Unification Ministry issued a statement:

<QUOTE>"It is very regrettable that an event agreed by the
South and the North will not be held due to North Korea's
unilateral notification (decision). What has been agreed must be
implemented under the spirit of mutual respect and understanding
as the South and the North have only taken a hard-earned first
step toward improving the South-North relationship."<END QUOTE>

In another development, South Korea's Defense Minister
Song Young-moo said:

<QUOTE>"The North Korean regime will probably be removed from
the map if it uses developed nuclear weapons against South Korea
or the United States.

It's an anachronistic idea that North Korea will use nuclear
weapons for the unification (of the two Koreas)."<END QUOTE>

It's certain that there will continue to be some hostile media
coverage, and it's certain that there will be anti-North protesters
before and during the games. This media coverage will be interpreted
by the North as threatening their new strategy of using the Olympics
to drive a wedge between South Korea and the US. Whether they become
so infuriated that they start canceling other events, or even their
entire participation in the games, remains to be seen. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters and UPI and The Hankyoreh (Seoul) and Yonhap News (Seoul)

****
**** Brief generational history of South Korea since World War II
****

In an article that I wrote in 2007 ( "South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal"
), I included a brief generational history
of South Korea. The following is an update.

Korea is one of the oldest nations on earth, with some 4000 years of
history. Here we can only give a brief summary of its extremely
tumultuous history in the 1900s:

• Japanese occupation. Japan invaded and colonized
  Korea in 1905, and was only expelled when Japan was defeated in World
  War II. Korea's attitude toward Japan remains bitter to this day,
  especially because of the use of
  Korean "comfort women" by the Japanese army during World War II.
  
  
• Korean War. South Korea's last generational crisis war was
  World War II, but the country's Recovery era was delayed because it
  was followed soon after by a non-crisis war ignited by the Communist
  Soviets. Known to us as the Korean War, it became a proxy war between
  United States / United Nations forces in the south versus Russian and
  Korean forces, and eventually Chinese forces as well in the north.
  The fighting ended in a 1953 armistice, but the war never ended, and
  the border between North and South Korea is heavily guarded to this
  day, with both sides having orders to kill on sight. People who lived
  through the Korean War mostly tend to be highly pro-American, and
  value the American forces still in South Korea as protection from
  North Korean forces.
  
  
• April 19 Revolution (1960). The U.S. military ruled S.
  Korea from 1945-48, when the First Republic of South Korea was
  established. Like subsequent governments, this government was
  extremely repressive and used violence against demonstrators and
  jailing of dissidents freely to maintain control. As the country
  entered its generational Awakening era in 1960, student demonstrations
  protested what it claimed was a corrupt election on March 15. This is
  known as the "April Revolution." Police started shooting at
  rock-throwing students. On April 11, a student's body was found on
  the beach. The skull had been penetrated by a tear gas grenade. On
  April 19, students at Korea University began protesting against police
  violence and called for new elections. The massive student
  demonstrations brought down the government, forcing the resignation of
  Rhee Syng-man, and the suicide of the Prime Minister and his
  family.
  
  
• President Park Chung-hee (1961-79) President Park
  dominated South Korea for almost 20 years, through the Second, Third
  and Fourth Republics of South Korea, several constitutional changes,
  and several assassination attempts. Park's detractors refer to his
  oppressive government, while his champions credit him with the
  modernization of South Korea, greatly raising the standard of living,
  and turning it into one of the most powerful economies in the world.
  Park was assassinated on October 26, 1979, by the chief of the Korean
  Central Intelligence Agency; the KCIA had been established by Park
  himself in 1961 in his fight against Communist and North Korean
  infiltration.[/b]
  
  
• 12/12 coup d'état (1979) and Kwangju massacre (1980).
  Following Park's assassination, violence within the government led to
  a coup d'état on December 12, 1979. This aroused massive student
  demonstrations against the government in the city of Kwangju
  (Gwangju) on May 18, 1980. The demonstrations were brutally
  suppressed through a declaration of martial law. Later investigations
  found that hundreds of students were killed, and there were unproved
  allegations of involvement of U.S. forces on behalf of the
  government.
  
  
• "Kwangju generation" defeats "April 19" generation (1987).
  In American terms, this is Generation-X versus the Boomers. But in
  Korea, it was a new, but minor coup d'état. The Kwangju massacre had
  galvanized the college age generation (like America's Generation-X),
  and massive riots beginning on June 10, 1987, forced the previous
  generation's military regime to resign, in favor of new elections,
  leading to the formation of the Sixth Republic of South Korea. This
  generation was affluent, highly pro-Leninist-Marxist and highly
  anti-American, since they had no memory of their parents' extreme
  poverty and destitution, nor of how an American military intervention
  saved South Korea from the North in 1950.
  
  
• The 386 Generation (1990-2008). The generation that we've
  been calling the "Kwangju generation" gave itself a new name in the
  1990s: the "386 Generation" or the "386ers". This name was chosen
  because they were all in their 30s (at that time), they had been
  activists in the 1980s, and they had been born in the 1960s. The name
  "386 Generation" fell out of favor the disastrous failure of the Roh
  Moo-hyun administration, which ended in 2008.
  
  
• Kim Dae-jung and the "Sunshine Policy" (1997). 1997 saw
  the first transfer of the government between parties by peaceful
  means, as Kim Dae-jung won the Presidential election. His policies
  reflected the new-found power of the 386 generation and, in
  particular, brought a fundamental change of policy towards North
  Korea known as the "Sunshine Policy." Kim attempted to reconcile
  with the North, and held a summit meeting with Kim Jong-il, for which
  Kim Dae-jung received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2000.[/b]
  
  
• Roh Moo-hyun and far-left government(2003-2008). Roh
  Moo-hyun, born in 1946, was not strictly a 386er, but he supported
  their policies and was considered one of their own. The 386ers got
  Roh elected President in 2002, and forced a far-left radicalization of
  the government in 2003, with some 20 386ers in high positions of power
  in the government. The administration was strongly pro-unification
  with North Korea, despite the North's nuclear weapons development.
  However, a major financial scandal late in 2006 threw the government
  into a crisis from which it couldn't extricate itself. This was
  described as "the fiasco of the 386 generation," causing the "386"
  name, which had previously evoked strong feelings of pride, to fall
  into disuse.
  
  
• Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye and center-right government
  (2008-2017) Just as the 386ers rejected the pro-Western values of
  their parents' generation, the children of the 386ers rejected the
  far-left values of the 386ers. Disillusionment with the Roh
  administration led to a movement to the right by the population, led
  by the younger voters, and an improved relationship with the US and
  West. Lee Myung-bak was elected in 2008, and Park Geun-hye was
  elected in 2013.
  
  
• North Koreans torpedo Cheonan warship and shell Yeonpyeong
  Island (2010) South Korean attitudes took a sharp turn to the
  right in 2010. In May, North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan,
  killing dozens
  of South Korean crew members, and in November, North Korea killed
  South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island.
  The North Koreans correctly calculated that the
  South would be too politically weak to respond, but these acts of war
  caused a reversal of pro-unification sentiment, and a big increase in
  distrust of North Korea. These acts are a big reason why young South
  Koreans are distrustful of and hostile to North Koreans today.
  
  
• Moon Jae-in and the return of the 386 Generation (2017-)
  Although the phrase "386 Generation" is no longer used, the election
  of Moon Jae-in in May 2017 was the return of a center-left
  administration populated by 386ers. Moon won on a pro-unification
  platform, promising to resolve the North Korean nuclear missile threat
  peacefully through negotiations, and also to develop closer relations
  with China. However, when North Korea made a major new ballistic
  missile launch on July 29, Moon was forced to respond by approving
  further deployment of the American THAAD anti-missile and advanced
  radar systems in South Korea -- something that was bitterly opposed by
  both China and South Korea.
  
  
• North Korea changes strategy as PyeongChang 2018 Olympics
  games approach (2018) In anticipation of the Winter Olympics, to
  be held in South Korea from February 9-25, North Korea adopted a major
  change of strategy. North Korea offered to send a team of athletes to
  the South Korea Olympics, in return for postponing the annual US-South
  Korea military drills normally held around the same time. President
  Moon strongly supported this move as an opening for possible future
  reunification. However, the move was widely criticized by South
  Koreans, young Koreans, as a political stunt designed to give the
  North more time to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic
  missiles.

That 2007 article was written in response to conciliatory policy
changes by the George Bush administration, resulting in euphoria on
the part of South Koreans. In that article, I quoted a BBC
correspondent, Charles Scanlon in Seoul, who described the euphoria as
unrealistic:

<QUOTE>"We are seeing something approaching euphoria, from at
least among some members of the South Korean government, in
reaction to this agreement that was signed in Beijing.

The Unification Minister who's responsible for relations with the
North said this could be a turning point in the establishment of
a peace regime on the Korean peninsula.

And certainly the South Koreans do feel to some extent vindicated
by what has been in effect a major change in U.S. policy toward
North Korea.

They've been urging a more conciliatory approach from the very
beginning, and they're certainly very relieved that the Americans
now do seem serious about getting a negotiated settlement with the
North Koreans, and they've softened some of their pressure
tactics.

The president, Roh Moo-hyun, said he's expecting a very easy
implementation of this accord.

I think there we are seeing really wishful thinking on the
President's part, because after all any agreement with the North
Koreans is not going to come easy."<END QUOTE>

I don't know whether the current president Moon Jae-in personally
feels euphoria about the new Winter Olympics détente, but as we've
described, the young generation of South Koreans feel little but
anger. The controversy has sent South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s
overall approval rating below 60% for the first time since he took
office in May last year, dropping more than 6 percentage points in one
week. Korea Times (5-Feb-2008) and Meng News (3-Jun-2014)

Related Articles

• North Korea reveals major change in strategic direction (05-Jan-2018)
  
  
• South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test (30-Jul-2017)
  
  
• South Korean civilians shelled by North Koreans (24-Nov-2010)
  
  
• S. Korea accuses N. Korea of sinking warship (21-May-2010)
  
  
• South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal (16-Feb-2007)
  
  
• Korea - Japan relations nosedive over long-disputed islands (18-Mar-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, NY Times, Choe Sang-Hunjan, South Korea, North Korea,
Moon Jae-in, Kim Jong-un, 386 Generation, Mount Kumgang,
Song Young-moo, April 19 Revolution, Park Chung-hee,
Kwangju massacre, Gwangju massacre, Kim Dae-jung, Sunshine Policy,
Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye,
Cheonan warship, Yeonpyeong Island,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Charles Scanlon

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Jan-18 World View -- Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as Lavrov gets heckled

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as Lavrov gets heckled
  
• Russia sidelines the failed United Nations Syria peace process
  
• War continues in full force, with Syria and Turkey killing 'terrorists'
  

****
**** Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as Lavrov gets heckled
****


Civil defense team looks for survivors after al-Assad regime airstrike in Idlib. (Anadolu)

Russia's president Vladimir Putin wanted to be the world-renowned
diplomat that brought peace to Syria. So last year he blew off the UN
sponsored peace talks led by Staffan de Mistura, and he joined with
Iran and Turkey to form his own "peace talks" process, held in Astana,
Kazakhstan. And they came up with a peace plan.

Of course, the peace plan was rejected by the parties actually
fighting in Syria -- the Syrian regime led by the psychopathic
president Bashar al-Assad, and "moderate" anti-Assad opposition in
Syria, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Jabhat
al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh). All of those four groups rejected the peace
plan, so it was ridiculous for Putin or anyone else to believe
that the peace plan would work.

And it didn't. They came up with four "de-confliction zones"
or "ceasefire zones." The fighting slowed down a little in
these four zones for a little while, but today the whole agreement
is in shambles, as the fighting is in full force. It is a total
failure by Vladimir Putin.

There was a meeting of Putin's peace plan group in Sochi on Tuesday
that Putin was calling the "Syrian National Dialogue Congress."

The meeting was supposed to take two days, but it was called off after
one day, when Syrian opposition representatives heckled Putin's
right-hand man, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and then
walked out.

There was an additional drama at the Sochi airport. Some opposition
members arrived at the airport, but refused to go to the conference
hall because they saw pictures of Syrian flags there. They decided
that the fix was in.

Opposition members point out that Bashar al-Assad's army is still
using barrel bombs and chlorine gas on civilians, is targeting
hospitals and schools, is preventing food and medicine from reaching
civilians, has ignored ceasefires, and has broken every promise to
stop doing these things. So opposition members know that Russia and
al-Assad are just going to screw them again, so why bother with this
so-called "peace conference"?

Putin announced in December that the Syrian war was over, and that
Russia's troops will be returned to Russia. Less than two months
later, it's clear that Putin's announcement was garbage. Reuters and CNN and Tass (Moscow)

****
**** Russia sidelines the failed United Nations Syria peace process
****

Russia's "peace process" has almost completely eclipsed the
UN-sponsored "peace process," lead by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura.

I've written about any number of Syria peace plans over the years.
Kofi Annan, the virulently anti-American former Secretary-General of
the United Nations from Ghana, was the first UN envoy on Syria. Annan
formulated a farcical six-point 'peace plan'
which said absolutely nothing, but which al-Assad used
as a cover to continue exterminating innocent Sunni women and children
with impunity.

After Kofi Annan was repeatedly humiliated by Bashar al-Assad, the UN
appointed a new Syria peace envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi,
to replace Kofi Annan. Brahimi wasn't as much of
an idiot as Annan was, but he still resigned in disgust in May 2014,
after it became clear that
al-Assad really had no desire to do anything but exterminate Sunni
civilians. Now, the current UN envoy is Staffan de Mistura, who goes
around all the time saying, "This will not be tolerated," but who
accomplishes nothing except, again, to provide cover for Bashar
al-Assad's atrocities.

So Vladimir Putin took over the peace process business. The UN
processes held out a fig leaf of being impartial, but Putin was
clearly and unequivocally in favor of Bashar al-Assad, and committed
to supporting his genocide and war crimes, while claiming to be
promoting peace.

So to complete the farcical circle, de Mistura attended the Russian
conference in Sochi under the condition that Russia promised that the
United Nations would be responsible for drafting a constitution and
the mediation process. Putin apparently agreed, and now the mantle of
failure will pass from Russia back to the United Nations. Guardian and Russia Today

****
**** War continues in full force, with Syria and Turkey killing 'terrorists'
****

If you want to kill someone in Syria, it's perfectly OK as long you
call him or her a "terrorist."

So Turkey is committed to killing all the Kurdish People’s Protection
Units (YPG) militias in Syria, calling the "terrorists." Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is very critical of the US for arming
and supporting the YPG, whom the US army found to be essential in
fighting and defeating ISIS in Raqqa.

Turkey was supposed to have defeated the YPG in Afrin by now, but the
battle is taking longer than they expected. Assuming that they ever
defeat the YPG in Afrin, the plan is to proceed further east to
Manbij, where they will apparently meet American forces who are
defending the YPG.

Meanwhile, the regime of the Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad, backed by
Russian bombers, is killing his own "terrorists," namely innocent
Sunni women and children in two "de-confliction" or "ceasefire zones,"
Eastern Ghouta and Idlib. Al-Assad continues to commit war crimes, in
cooperation with Hezbollah, Iran and Russia.

Ironically, al-Assad is being helped by Erdogan because Turkey used to
be a protector of the civilians in Idlib, but is now distracted by the
fight against the YPG in Afrin.

So, while Erdogan is killing the terrorists in Afrin, al-Assad is
killing the terrorists in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib.

There is a fantasy, apparently widespread, that one way or another the
Syria war will end at some point soon, and then Syria will return to
"normal," just as it was before al-Assad started the war by trying to
exterminate peaceful protesters in 2011. And in fact, Syria is in a
generational Awakening era, and so the war should have (and would
have) fizzled out within a year or two.

But now you have multiple countries -- Russia, Iran, Hezbollah,
Turkey, the US, Israel and others -- and you have multiple factions
within Syria -- YPG, HTS, ISIS -- all wanting a piece of Iraq, or at
least wanting to make sure that some other faction doesn't get a
piece. Each faction believes that the war will end soon, but each
faction expects a different outcome.

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran.

The mess and chaos in Syria is just a few steps away from a broader
war. AP and TRT World (Ankara, 18-Jan) and Middle East Monitor (24-Jan) and Middle East Eye (23-Jan)

Related Articles

• Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' (21-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe (14-Jan-2018)
  
  
• US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder (16-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination (07-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hug and declare the end of war in Syria (27-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Russian-led Syria peace talks collapse in Astana, Kazakhstan (06-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Sochi, Sergei Lavrov, Syrian National Dialogue Congress,
Staffan de Mistura, Iran, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Astana, Kazakhstan, de-escalation zones,
Eastern Ghouta, Hama, Idlib, barrel bombs,
chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous, Sarin gas
People’s Protection Units, YPG, Afrin, Manbij

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Feb-18 World View -- New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan
  
• Losing to Taliban has been predicted for years by generational analysis
  

****
**** New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan
****


Taliban presence in Afghanistan districts (BBC)

A new study by the BBC, based on interviews with 1200 people across
Afghanistan, finds that the Taliban are in full control of 4% of
Afghanistan's districts, and have an active and open physical presence
in a further 66%, significantly higher than previous estimates of
Taliban strength. That means that only about 30% of the districts are
still controlled by the Afghan government. The interviews were
conducted late in 2017.

The extent to which the Taliban partially or fully control districts
of Afghanistan has been one of the most useful statistics used by
analysts and politicians for gauging the success of the Nato coalition
in defeating the Taliban.

However, there are indications that the US military is trying to
suppress this kind of information. The Quarterly Report To The United
States Congress issued by the Special Inspector General for
Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) was released on Tuesday. According
to the report, SIGAR has been specifically instructed by the US
military not to release this kind of information any more, even though
it's unclassified. According to the report:

<QUOTE>"Aside from that, the number of districts controlled
or influenced by the Afghan government had been one of the last
remaining publicly available indicators for members of Congress --
many of whose staff do not have access to the classified annexes
to SIGAR reports -- and for the American public of how the
16-year long U.S. effort to secure Afghanistan is
faring. Historically, the number of districts controlled or
influenced by the government has been falling since SIGAR began
reporting on it, while the number controlled or influenced by the
insurgents has been rising -- a fact that should cause even more
concern about its disappearance from public disclosure and
discussion."<END QUOTE>

A spokesman in Kabul, representing the US-led Nato coalition, denied
both reports, saying that the Taliban contested or controlled only 44%
of the Afghan districts, and that SIGAR had not been instructed to
withhold unclassified data.

Whatever the actual figure is, no one as far as I know questions the
fact that the Taliban have been gaining territory and the Afghan
government has been losing territory, ever since most foreign troops
left the country in 2014. And this trend is going to continue.
BBC and
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
and Reuters

****
**** Losing to Taliban has been predicted for years by generational analysis
****

As I've been writing for years, a generational analysis there is no
chance at all that the Taliban will be defeated in Afghanistan.
Journalists, analysts and politicians are unable to grasp even the
simplest generational analysis. Nonetheless, it's worthwhile
summarizing what I've described in the past.

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody
Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic
Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus
the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a
generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is
coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the
atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for
revenge.

This growing generation of young vengeful Pashtuns cannot be defeated
by any conventional or unconventional army. They're capable of
forming cells, living off the land, and conducting terror attacks at
any time, targeting the government and the ethnic groups in the
Northern Alliance.

Afghanistan's capital city Kabul has been targeted in just the last
two weeks by a series of massive terrorist attacks, killing hundreds
of people. Furthermore, these attacks have been inside the most
well-protected areas of Kabul, indicating that the Taliban terrorists
have had help from the inside -- undoubtedly provided by other Pashtun
youths.

The fact that the Taliban are gaining more and more territory each
year is just a reflection of the fact that more and more youngsters in
the Pashtun generation are coming of age, and are willing to avenge
what they consider to be the atrocities committed against their
parents' generation.

There's no way to stop this. This generation is going to continue
growing, while foreign forces increasingly tire of fighting a war that
most Westerners don't even care about.

However, as I've written in the past, the Nato alliance and the US
administration appear to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with
China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American
troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several
American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in
Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be
valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances,
having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are
defeated or not. France 24

Related Articles

• New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 (28-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Nato,
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, SIGAR,
Pashtuns, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Bagram, Kandahar International Airport

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

(01-25-2018, 11:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities
  
• Migrant workers built modern China, and are now being discarded
  

****
**** In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities
****


A rare street protest in Beijing against demolitions of migrant homes and businesses (Getty)

The mayor of China's capital city Beijing has announced that workers
would demolish 15 square miles of homes used by low-paid migrant
workers.  Many migrants have lived in these homes for years or
decades, but now the city is declaring the homes to be illegal
structures.  The migrants will be evicted and left homeless.

Officials are not saying how many migrant workers would be evicted by
the demolitions this year.  However, in general terms, Beijing would
like to reduce the population of Beijing by 15%, and this would fall
most heavily on the estimated 3 million migrant workers living in
Beijing, or 450,000.  (Other reports estimate 8 million migrant
workers in Beijing.  The larger figure may include suburbs.)

In December of last year, a demolition campaign evicted tens of
thousands of migrant workers in just one month alone, so these figures
seem to be credible.

Some demolitions had been going on slowly for years, but when a
shantytown fire on November 18 killed 19 people, the demolitions and
evictions took on a shape that's being described a "vicious" and
"cruel."

People were given only few hours' notice before their homes were
demolished, and they were forced into the sub-zero December
temperatures.  The demolitions included small businesses as well as
homes, causing many migrants to lose their life savings as well as
their source of income.  Many migrants had been supporting their
families by sending money back to them, but that source of support was
cut off overnight.

Chinese intellectuals have petitioned the government to halt the
evictions, calling them a violation of human rights. Even some state
media have criticized the campaign.  According to Yi Fuxian, a China
population expert, the government has called migrants a low-end
population - basically implying that they're inferior quality human
beings.  "China didn't just say this. They actually wrote it into
government documents. This is absurd," says Yi.  Reuters and Shanghaiist (24-Nov) and BBC and
NPR (4-Dec-2017)

Related Articles

• China drives thousands of Beijing migrants out into the winter cold (01-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Mongol invasion of China in 1206 has impact today (06-Dec-2010)
  

****
**** Migrant workers built modern China, and are now being discarded
****

Whenever a large number of foreign migrants travel from one region to
another, the reactions of the natives generally range from
marginalization to open hostility to violence, sometimes ending in
deportation.  In Beijing, the migrants are not foreigners.  They're
ordinary Chinese from farms and rural areas who come to the city to
improve themselves, or to earn money to send back to their families.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), there are an
estimated 282 million rural migrant workers in China, making up more
than one third of the entire working population of 807 million.

Migrants work are almost always marginalized and work in low-paid
jobs.  They're subject to various kinds of abuse, including forced
overtime and non-payment of salaries.  The vast majority of rural
migrant workers are still employed in low-paid jobs in manufacturing,
construction and services.  According to NBS figures, the employment
by sector is as follows:

• Manufacturing - 31%
  
• Construction - 20%
  
• Sales - 12%
  
• Household services etc. - 11%
  
• Transport and logistics - 6%
  
• Hotel and catering services - 6%
  
• Others - 14%
  

The millions of migrants living in Beijing, often for decades, were
the laborers who built Beijing into the huge metropolis that it is
today.  Now their work is done, and they're being left cold, broke and
homeless.

Although news stories have focused mainly on Beijing, thanks
to the shantytown fire on November 18, we're apparently seeing
a major change in Chinese policy that affects all large cities,
and possibly medium sized cities as well.

The likely causes of this change of policy are as follows:

• Beijing and other large cities suffer from massive
  traffic jams and massive bouts of choking pollution, calling
  for a reduction in population.
  
  
• Beijing and other large cities need to build new roads and
  other infrastructure, requiring that the "illegal" homes of
  millions of migrant workers be demolished.  Out with the old,
  in with the new.
  
  
• China has recently changed its "one-child policy" to a "two-child
  policy," threatening even larger population gains in the large
  cities.
  
  
• There are signs of a great deal of xenophobia between the elite
  residents of the cities, and the low-paid migrants who do all the
  work.
  

This kind of major demographic policy change can only put strain on
China's economy, which is already running on a huge debt bubble and a
huge real estate bubble.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this split could be
significant as the first signs of a new internal rebellion, for which
China is overdue.  China's history is filled with huge, massive
internal rebellions (civil wars), the most recent of which were the
White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and
Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49).  The leaders of China's
Communist Party (CCP) are well aware of this history, and they're
aware that a new internal rebellion is now due, and probably overdue.

China used to publish the number of "mass incidents" occurring in the
country.  The number of "mass incidents" of unrest recorded by the
Chinese government grew from 8,700 in 1993 to about 90,000 in 2010,
according to several government-backed studies.  The government
stopped publishing the figures in 2010, but it's reasonable to believe
that the number of mass incidents per year is well into the hundreds
of thousands.  If even just one of these mass incidents occurred in
America or Europe, it would be international news, so the fact that
hundreds of such mass incidents occur in China EVERY DAY indicates how
socially unstable China is.

So you already have an economy running on a huge debt bubble, with
hundreds of thousands of mass incidents per year, and with millions of
marginalized migrants scheduled to lose their homes and their jobs,
when the country is well into a generational Crisis era.  China's
next, massive, historic internal rebellion is overdue, and this new
policy could end up being one of the triggers.  China Labor Bulletin (Hong Kong) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 5-Jan) and The Diplomat (26-Jul-2017)

Related Articles

• China says that increasing numbers of 'major mass incidents' threaten government (10-Dec-2006)
  
  
• China Prime Minister warns country becoming unstable (24-Jan-2006)
  
  
• China's Wen Jiabao warns of unrest and widespread environmental destruction (07-Mar-2013)
  
  
• Up to 50,000 workers riot and clash with police in southeast China (26-Dec-2004)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Beijing, migrants,
Yi Fuxian, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS,
White Lotus Rebellion, Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution

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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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I see an old pattern from early capitalism: at the start, capitalists need veritable armies of day laborers to do the hard, dirty, dangerous work of building the basic infrastructure. So it was with laying railroad track, building  structures, and digging ditches. The workers usually end up in temporary housing, the housing typically jerry-built with poor sanitation.  Vice flourishes. But once the early boom ends, the day laborers are no longer necessary. Maybe they move on. More troubling, they might want to stay and take a piece of the action as regular employees, skilled workers, or as small-scale entrepreneurs. Many do not make the transition, and the powers-that-be want such people out. The technology may be different, but the social pressures are much the same.

The day laborers are the most genuine proletariat in the Marxist sense. They see capitalism at its worst and get the least out of it. Of course they want better. But will they get it?

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-01-2018, 12:52 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I see an old pattern from early capitalism: at the start,
> capitalists need veritable armies of day laborers to do the hard,
> dirty, dangerous work of building the basic infrastructure. So it
> was with laying railroad track, building structures, and digging
> ditches. The workers usually end up in temporary housing, the
> housing typically jerry-built with poor sanitation. Vice
> flourishes. But once the early boom ends, the day laborers are no
> longer necessary. Maybe they move on. More troubling, they might
> want to stay and take a piece of the action as regular employees,
> skilled workers, or as small-scale entrepreneurs. Many do not make
> the transition, and the powers-that-be want such people out. The
> technology may be different, but the social pressures are much the
> same.

> The day laborers are the most genuine proletariat in the Marxist
> sense. They see capitalism at its worst and get the least out of
> it. Of course they want better. But will they get it?

So what would be an example of a capitalist society where the laborers
built a city, and then the government came in and evicted 10% of the
population and threw them out into the streets in a period of a few
months?

Or is your point that you want to claim that China is in "early
capitalism"?

[pbrower2a]

(02-01-2018, 02:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(02-01-2018, 12:52 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   I see an old pattern from early capitalism: at the start,
>   capitalists need veritable armies of day laborers to do the hard,
>   dirty, dangerous work of building the basic infrastructure. So it
>   was with laying railroad track, building structures, and digging
>   ditches. The workers usually end up in temporary housing, the
>   housing typically jerry-built with poor sanitation.  Vice
>   flourishes. But once the early boom ends, the day laborers are no
>   longer necessary. Maybe they move on. More troubling, they might
>   want to stay and take a piece of the action as regular employees,
>   skilled workers, or as small-scale entrepreneurs. Many do not make
>   the transition, and the powers-that-be want such people out. The
>   technology may be different, but the social pressures are much the
>   same.

>   The day laborers are the most genuine proletariat in the Marxist
>   sense. They see capitalism at its worst and get the least out of
>   it. Of course they want better. But will they get it?

So what would be an example of a capitalist society where the laborers
built a city, and then the government came in and evicted 10% of the
population and threw them out into the streets in a period of a few
months?

Or is your point that you want to claim that China is in "early
capitalism"?

It is treating workers much as early capitalism did.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct anti-hijab protests

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arrested Iran reformist Mahdi Karroubi harshly criticizes Supreme Leader Khamenei
  
• Iran's 'Girls of Revolution Street' tear off their hijabs and headscarves
  

****
**** Arrested Iran reformist Mahdi Karroubi harshly criticizes Supreme Leader Khamenei
****


Mehdi Karroubi, opposition leader, surrounded by supporters on June 17, 2009 (Reuters)

In a move that may not have been good for his continued survival, 80
year old Iranian reformist Mahdi Karroubi harshly criticized the
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei in a letter published on
his political party's web site.

The criticism comes just one month after nationwide street protests
that began as demonstrations
against soaring food prices, but then grew into much more serious
protests about government corruption among the political élite. It's
widely believed that when Iranian sanctions were lifted after the
nuclear deal was signed, and Iran received billions of dollars as a
result, that money went to élite clerical institutions, at the same
time that a banking crisis has caused millions of Iranians to lose
their life savings.

As usual, Khamenei blamed the United States, Israel and other "foreign
enemies" for the nationwide street protests. At least 25 people were
killed in the protests, and hundreds of peaceful protesters were
jailed.

Mehdi Karroubi has been under house arrest for seven years for
supporting peaceful protesters during the 2009 election, when Iran's
security forces overreacted and there was blood running in the
streets.

Karroubi's letter to Khamenei was a reaction to last month's street
protests:

<QUOTE>"I urge you, before it is too late, to open the way to
structural reforms of the system. ...

The system is going downhill to such an extent that it feels
endangered by a few thousand people demonstrating.

Instead of repeating accusations of links with the enemy and
instead of harsh confrontation, listen to them. ...

More than 50 percent of the country’s wealth is in the hands of
state bodies over which there is no supervision... Poverty and
unemployment are plaguing the country.

More than 10 million Iranians, among 80 million, now live in
absolute poverty. Under such conditions, it is natural that the
lower classes, who were the grassroot supporters of the Islamic
Revolution, will turn into a gunpowder barrel."<END QUOTE>

Karroubi also criticized Khamenei for letting the Revolutionary Guards
take a commanding role in the economy as this "has tarnished the
reputation of this revolutionary body and drowned it in massive
corruption." Radio Farda (RFERL) and AP and Reuters

****
**** Iran's 'Girls of Revolution Street' tear off their hijabs and headscarves
****


From 2007: An obvious criminal at large on the streets of Tehran (France 24)

Iran is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the end
of the bloody, vicious Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988, just as
America was in a generational Awakening era in the 1960s, one
generation past the end of World War II. Awakening eras are
characterized by generation conflicts between the generations of
traumatized survivors of the war versus the generation that grew up
after the war (the Boomers in America's case).

There are actually many similarity between America in the 1960s and
Iran today. In both cases there were protests by college students
against foreign wars, poverty and the economy.

One particular feature of America in the 1960s was the "Women's Lib"
movement, where cute, attractive college girls paraded around
demanding to be treated the same as men, and put on big shows of
burning their bras to make the point that there was no difference
between the sexes.

Iran's Awakening era has its own Women's Lib movement. It started on
December 27, just as nationwide street protests were starting, when an
unidentified woman climbed on top of an electricity box on one of
Tehran’s busiest streets, Enqelab (Revolution) Avenue, removed her
head scarf, and began waving it in the air.

A video clip of the woman, later identified as Vida Movahed, a
31-year-old mother, quickly went viral, and that was the beginning of
"Girls Of Revolution Street." Now there is a movement for women to
take off their headscarves and wave them in the air in protest of
compulsory headscarves and hijabs.

This is anathema to the hardline geezers, who consider a girl without
a headscarf to be almost as bad as an infidel. In 2007, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, Iran's president at the time, ordered police in Tehran to
swoop down on women with loose headscarves
and arrest them. In some cases, they were simply
warned. but in other cases they would be piled into a bus and taken
to the police station for "questioning."

Every generational Awakening era has a climax. America's Awakening
era climaxed with the resignation of president Richard Nixon in 1974.
Iran's Awakening era will climax with some sort of regime change that
will replace the Khamenei and the other hardline geezers that
survived the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and are still running
the country with a new, younger generation of leaders. And since
young people in Iran today tend to be pro-American and pro-Western,
and have no desire to push Israel into the sea, expect Iran to become
an American ally once the Awakening era climax takes place. Radio Farda (RFERL) and CNN

Related Articles

• Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves (25-Apr-2007)
  
  
• Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue (09-Nov-2009)
  
  
• Escalating violence in Iran protests brings calls for Iran-Israel friendship (02-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement (09-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei
Mehdi Karroubi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Great Islamic Revolution,
Girls Of Revolution Street, Vida Movahed

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