Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Mar-18 World View -- Canada's Immigration and Refugee Board overwhelmed by migrants crossing border from US

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Canada's Immigration and Refugee Board overwhelmed by migrants crossing border from US
  
• Turkey achieves victory in Afrin, Syria, but Kurds threaten guerilla war
  

****
**** Canada's Immigration and Refugee Board overwhelmed by migrants crossing border from US
****


August 2017: Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre greets a busload of Haitian asylum seekers from the United States as it arrives (AFP)

Canada's Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) has become so overwhelmed
by refugees making asylum claims that it's giving up on following
regulations dictating requiring refugee hearings to be held within a
certain time. Regulations drawn up in 2012 required the IRB to hold
hearings with 30-60 days, depending on the country of origin.

But the system began breaking down in January 2017, when US president
Donald Trump began cracking down on illegal immigration, and also
announced that legal immigrants having a Temporary Protected Status
(TPS) would have that status expire. In addition, the status of the
"dreamers," those who were brought to the country as children years
ago by their parents, was in doubt.

The US crackdown has created a growing backlog in Canada, as refugees
in American have been crossing the border into Canada and applying for
asylum. Many refugees and illegal immigrants living in the United
States were encouraged to cross the border into Canada when Canada's
prime minister Justin Trudeau tweeted a welcome and invitation to the
refugees on January 28, 2017, shortly after Trump announced his travel
ban:

<QUOTE>"To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians
will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our
strength #WelcomeToCanada"<END QUOTE>

Since January 2017, the backlog has been growing at a rate of about
2,100 cases per month. the largest increase so far occurred in
September 2017, with a backlog increase of 6,200 cases.

More than 20,000 people, including thousands from Haiti and Nigeria,
and hundreds from Turkey, Syria and Eritrea, have crossed the border
into Canada illegally over the past year in search of asylum, many
fleeing in fear that Trump would deport them to their home countries.

Canada's IRB has given up trying to follow the 2012 regulations, and
is simply hearing claims in the order in which they are received. The
board will make exceptions for priority claims, such as unaccompanied
minors or other vulnerable persons. The backlog has now reached about
43,000 cases with the IRB saying the waiting time for a hearing is
almost 2 years.

As the weather becomes warmer, it's expected that there will be a
large new wave of migrants entering Canada. The Canadian government
has dispatched lawmakers to diaspora communities in the United States
to persuade people not to come. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's
government has discussed the situation with the Trump administration,
but it has been careful not to publicly blame the U.S. president's
policies for triggering the migration wave.

According to figures published by the Immigration Board, the most
asylum requests in 2017 were from migrants from Haiti, with over 8,000
requests, and from Nigeria, with over 5,500 requests. Other countries
of origin where the numbers of requests exceeded 1,000 include: China,
Colombia, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey, and Venezuela.
Reuters
and Radio Canada International (21-Feb) and Montreal Gazette (26-Nov-2017) and National Post (20-Feb) and Immigration Refugee Board

Related Articles

• Thousands of migrants flee to Canada, fearing deportation in the US (04-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet (13-May-2017)
  
  
• US will deport tens of thousands of Haitian immigrants surging toward California (25-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Turkey achieves victory in Afrin, Syria, but Kurds threaten guerilla war
****

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed victory in Afrin,
Syria, on Monday, after seizing the center of Afrin city. The
objective of Operation Olive Branch, launched on January 20, was to
seize control of Afrin from the Kurdish militias, People's Protection
Units (YPG), who Erdogan says are branches of the terrorist Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK). The YPG withdrew on Sunday, rather than risk
fighting a conventional war with Turkish-backed forces, including the
Free Syrian Army (FSA).

However, the YPG claim that the fight for Afrin is far from over.
The Kurdish militias are threatening a guerilla insurgency,
with hit-and-run attacks on Turkey's troops in Afrin. Such an
insurgency could prompt Turkey to respond with harsh attacks on
the civilians in Afrin.

As things stand, about 200,000 residents of Afrin fled the city in
recent days, as Turkey's offensive escalated. Theoretically, they
will be allowed to return to their homes now, but there have been
reports of looting by Turkish troops. Furthermore, the residents fear
that Turkey will move some of the millions of Syrian refugees who have
been living in Turkey for years back into Afrin, so that the Kurds
will not have a home to come back to.

Erdogan seems emboldened by the capture of Afrin, and is threatening
to move eastward and attack the YPG in other cities, including Kobani
and Manbij. However, the YPG forces in Manbij are backed by US
forces, and if Erdogan carries through on his threat, then Turkish
forces will be fighting American forces. France 24 and Rudaw (Kurdistan)

Related Articles

• Concerns grow of humanitarian disaster in Afrin, Syria, as Turkey's forces enter (16-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Socialists and feminists to act as 'human shields' protecting Kurds from Turkey in Afrin Syria (12-Mar-2018)
  
  
• A new terrorist bombing (by PKK) in Istanbul Turkey kills dozens (11-Dec-2016)
  
  
• US-backed Kurds stop fighting ISIS in order to fight Turkey in Afrin (08-Mar-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Canada, Immigration and Refugee Board, IRB,
Justin Trudeau, Haiti, Nigeria, China, Colombia, India, Mexico,
Pakistan, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela,
Turkey, Syria, Afrin, Operation Olive Branch, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Kobani, Manbij

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Mar-18 World View -- Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation'
  
• Xi Jinping stokes China's nationalism with harsh threats to Taiwan and Hong Kong
  

****
**** Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation'
****


Framed portraits of Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping hang above a TV screen showing President Xi Jinping. (Reuters)

Analysts are saying that China has entered a new era with the recent
meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC), with president Xi
Jinping becoming a dictator and the most powerful leader in China's
history, possibly even more power than Mao Zedong.

The most significant visible change is that the constitutional limit
to two terms as president has been removed, essentially making Xi
Jinping a dictator for life. Furthermore, the constitution was changed
to incorporate "Xi's thoughts." Less visible, but related, is that Xi
has been able to purge the government of most of his opposition, by
accusing them of corruption. Xi is now in charge of all organs and
branches of government, and cannot be challenged. Many people are
excited by this development, because they say that Xi has done so much
to make China more powerful, and now can continue to do so.

However, many other people are pointing out. Absolute dictators are
not infallible gods. Hitler was an absolute dictator, but the
Holocaust was a disaster for Germany as well as the world. Mao Zedong
was an absolute dictator, but Mao's Great Leap Forward resulted in the
deaths of tens of millions of peasants from starvation and executions,
which was a disaster for China. The problem is that absolute
dictators are no different than you and me in the ability to make bad
decisions, but when you and I make a bad decision then someone stops
us, but no one stops an absolute dictator. Just as Mao could launch
the disastrous Great Leap Forward without being questioned, Xi could
launch a disastrous war without being questioned.

A good example of how delusional Xi is can be shown from this claim in
his final speech to the NPC:

<QUOTE>"China is a socialist state under the people's
democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the
alliance of workers and peasants, noting that all power in the
country belongs to the people."<END QUOTE>

This doesn't even make sense. China is a "dictatorship," but there is
nothing "democratic" about it. All of China's elections are
predetermined, and peasants and workers are permitted to vote only
for the chosen candidate.

Xi talks about the "rejuvenation" of China through "Socialism
with Chinese characteristics." He calls this a "New Long
March," alluding the Mao Zedong's Long March that began in 1934
and marked the beginning of the extremely bloody 16-year Chinese
civil war. According to Xi:

<QUOTE>"China has continuously striven for its dream of
realizing great national rejuvenation for over 170 years.

History has proved and will continue to prove that only socialism
can save China. Only by sticking to and developing socialism with
Chinese characteristics can we achieve the rejuvenation of the
Chinese nation. ...

Turning the grand blueprint for China into reality is new Long
March. We need to uphold the great banner of socialism with
Chinese characteristics. China's goal is to build a socialist,
modern country by the middle of the 21st century."<END QUOTE>

The reference to "170 years" is very interesting, because it
reveals the core resentment and bitterness towards the West
that guide Xi's thinking. Xi and many Chinese blame China's
poverty and backwardness on the Opium Wars with Britain in
the 1840s, 170 years ago. According to this view, China would already
be a great nation, if it hadn't been forced into submission by
Britain at that time.

Once again, this is totally delusional on the part of Xi and other
Chinese. Since the 1840s, China has had two extremely destructive
generational crisis wars -- the Taiping Rebellion and Mao's Communist
Revolution -- both of them civil wars, both of them enormously
destructive to China, and neither of them the fault of Britain or
anybody but the Chinese themselves. But the delusion of blaming
everything on a war that occurred 170 years ago is extremely
dangerous, because it can be used to justify such things as annexing
other countries' regions in the South China Sea.

Xi added the following:

<QUOTE>"Since ancient times, the realization of the great
rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has become the greatest dream
of the Chinese nation. The Chinese people are indomitable, and
will persevere. They have the courage for bloody fights against
their enemies, and they are determined to restore their former
glory. Today the Chinese people are more confident and more
capable, and closer than ever before of realizing the great
rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."<END QUOTE>

This is extremely ominous, since Xi is justifying in advance any
pre-emptive military attacks that he may decide to make. And being an
absolute dictator means that the decision will be entirely his.
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and China Daily and South China Morning Post and BBC and
National Interest


****
**** Xi Jinping stokes China's nationalism with harsh threats to Taiwan and Hong Kong
****

According to a new "ethnic identity poll? by Hong Kong University, 68%
of the respondents identified themselves as "Hongkongers," while only
31% identified themselves as "Chinese," down 7 points from just six
months ago. Among young people aged 18-29, only 0.3% consider
themselves "Chinese."

In the past, we've described polls

that show that support in Taiwan for independence from China is
growing each year, as younger generations grow older.

Xi Jinping addressed this problem in his speech:

<QUOTE>"We will continue to implement 'One Country, Two
Systems' principle, Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong, Macao
people governing Macao, and high degree of autonomy in the special
administrative regions.

We should continue to stick to one-China principle, 1992 Consensus
and advance the peaceful development of the cross-Straits
relations and expand the economic and cultural exchanges between
the two sides.

Safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity, completely
uniting China are Chinese people's common goal and the country's
fundamental interests.

Every inch of the Chinese territory absolutely cannot be separated
from China.

All acts and tricks to separate the country are doomed to fail and
will be condemned by the people and punished by
history."<END QUOTE>

Of course, these remarks are directed at the United States, especially
after president Donald Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act last week,
which allows high-level
visits between American and Taiwanese government officials.

But Xi's remarks are really directed at Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao.
Their purpose is to stoke nationalism in the Chinese people in order
to prepare them for preemptive military action.

In 2005, China passed the Anti-Secession Law,
which orders the army to invade Taiwan if any
Taiwanese official makes any move toward independence, whether by word
or by deed. Since then, Taiwan has made many moves toward
independence, and Xi is signaling that he's losing patience. He's
aware that time is not on his side, as younger generations in Taiwan
are increasingly pro-independence.

As I described last year in "24-Oct-17 World View -- Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism"
,
Xi is following the same path to total war that the Nazis followed,
with the same inevitable disastrous results.

Xi's claim of China's humiliation in the Opium Wars to justify any
Chinese action is similar to Hitler's claim of Germany's humiliation
in World War I to justify any Nazi action.

Xi's use of the Opium Wars to blame Britain for all of China's
troubles is the same as Hitler's blaming the Jews in World War I
for all of Nazi Germany's troubles.

China has been preparing for war with the U.S. in every possible way.
They've built large, illegal military bases in the South China Sea,
and repeatedly lied about them. They've developed numerous
nuclear-tipped ballistic and hypersonic missile systems designed to
successfully strike and destroy American aircraft carriers, American
cities, and American bases. They've demonstrated a capability to
destroy American communications and GPS satellites. They have
thousands of missiles ready to launch against Taiwan, and they have
large military deployments in western Tibet ready to invade India.

Xi's speech advances China's war preparations by providing
justifications for future military action, and by stoking nationalism
to prepare the Chinese people for war. This war could begin next
week, next month, next year, or whenever China wants. As China's
dictator, Xi Jinping will decide when this war will begin, and when he
decides, there will be no one to stop him. Hong Kong Economic Journal (28-Dec) and Hong Kong University (27-Dec) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and BBC and
South China Morning Post

Related Articles:

• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  
  
• China's warplanes conduct 'encirclement' patrols around Taiwan's and Japan's islands (13-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China repudiates its Hong Kong 'One Country, Two Systems' agreement with Britain (01-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Despite warnings from China, Trump signs the Taiwan Travel Act (17-Mar-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, National People's Congress, NPC,
Mao Zedong, Great Leap Forward, Opium Wars, Britain,
Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao,
University of Hong Kong, Taiwan Travel Act, Anti-Secession Law,
Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, National Socialism, Nazi

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Mar-18 World View -- How China would lose a war with the United States

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive earth fissure suddenly opens up in mid-Kenya, signaling an eventual split in all of Africa
  
• How China would lose a war with the United States
  
• ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul
  

****
**** Massive earth fissure suddenly opens up in mid-Kenya, signaling an eventual split in all of Africa
****


A portion of the fissure where a gap was opened in a highway (Mwakilishi)

A massive crack in the earth suddenly opened up two weeks ago,
apparently triggered by large rainstorms that caused dangerous
flooding. The fissure is already several miles long and is growing.

The fissure opened up a gap in major road, but engineers from the
China Communications Construction Company immediately began major
repairs of the road, building a bridge across the fissure.

There have been no reports of casualties, but one family reported
that their house split in two while they were eating dinner,
forcing them to flee.

Geologists say that Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and half of Ethiopia could
separate from the African continent to form a new continent dubbed the
Somali Plate in the next 50 million years. Kenya Broadcasting and The Nation (Kenya) and Mwakilishi (Kenya)

Related Articles

• Kenyan woman environmental activist wins Nobel Peace Prize (08-Oct-2004)
  
  
• Severe drought in Kenya increases violence among herders, farmers and police (14-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Kenya closes border with Madagascar as Black Plague epidemic spreads (25-Oct-2017)
  

****
**** How China would lose a war with the United States
****

For over ten years I've been writing, based on a Generational
Dynamics analysis, that the China and the United States would
be opposed to each other in the approaching Clash of Civilizations
world war.

As I've indicated many times in the past, China is expected to repeat
the situation in World War II, when it faced an external enemy (Japan)
and also had a major internal rebellion, Mao Zedong's Communist
Revolution.

Although in the grand scheme of things, there's never a guarantee that
the US will survive such a war, in the past few years it's seemed
increasingly likely that the US will not only survive, but will
actually win this war. This is because China's belligerent actions
have turned much of the world against China, and China would be facing
multiple enemies besides the US.

An analysis by the Indian think tank SAAG has outlined China's
strategic vulnerabilities:

• Estimates of China's "strategic and military might have been
  overblown both on scale and magnitude."
  
  
• "What the United States could not achieve through diplomacy for
  decades," China has handed to the US through its military
  belligerence. Many Asian nations that have been neutral or even
  inimical to the United States are now US allies.
  
  
• Pacific nations are in varying stages of military alliance with
  the United States because of China's South China Sea military
  aggression. Japan, South Korea, India and Australia are strongly
  allied with the US.
  
  
• Russia may be in a strategic nexus with China, but it is only a
  tactical expedient.
  
  
• China is friendless in sub-regions of Asia. Among East Asian
  nations, China cannot count on anyone but Cambodia and to some extent
  Thailand.
  
  
• In South Asia, the China-Pakistan axis presents a "Two-Front
  military threat" to India, and China appears to have gained ground in
  Nepal, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bhutan and Bangladesh through the use
  of "economic doles." But the influence of China in these countries is
  fraying, even in Pakistan, where the "average Pakistani is questioning
  the Pakistan Army’s furthering China’s gains at the expense of China’s
  ‘colonization’ of Pakistan."
  
  
• Since Narendra Modi came to power, India's war preparedness has
  been increased, after "abject neglect" in the previous government.
  
  
• China's internal security has been worsening, with border regions
  like Xinjiang and Tibet in a state of unrest. With China's economy
  slowing down, domestic discontent is bound to grow.
  
  
• There are likely to be violent disturbances generated by thousands
  of senior Party officials, Army Generals and others whom Xi Jinping
  has removed by using false charges of corruption, in order to become
  an unchallenged dictator. There is an explosive mix of internal
  security and domestic unrest waiting to be ignited by a solitary
  incendiary spark originating externally or internally, or
  both.

I would add one more item to this list: I've been comparing the path
that China is following to the path that Nazi Germany followed -- Xi
Jinping's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is the same as
Hitler's "National Socialism," Xi's blaming Britain and the Opium Wars
for humiliating China is the same as Hitler's blaming the Jews and
World War I for humiliating Germany. Xi and Hitler both became total
dictators after winning elections.

Another big similarity is that the Chinese believe that they're
superior not only to Americans but to any other group on earth, and
that they can defeat any of them quickly in a war. China isn't using
the phrase "Master Race" that Hitler used, but reading news stories
from China conveys the same feeling. So the item that I would add to
the list is vast overconfidence.

Friedrich Nietzsche said, "Insanity in individuals is something rare -
but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." In 1860,
America's southern states started the Civil War, even though they had
no chance against the North, which was three times the size. In 1941,
Japan started the Pacific war, even though they had no chance against
the US, which was five times the size. Overconfidence leads absolute
dictators to make catastrophically bad decisions.

Assuming that the analysis is correct that China would be likely to
lose such a war, that doesn't mean that the war won't occur, or that
the war won't be disastrous for the entire world, as well as China, or
that billions of people won't die from nuclear weapons, conventional
weapons, ground war, famine and disease. China's actions are going to
lead to a world war, and historians will look back on the Chinese as
being worse than the Nazis. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)

Related Articles:

• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  

****
**** ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul
****

A suicide bomber killed at least 32 people on Wednesday by exploding
near a historic Shia shrine in Kabul, where worshippers had gathered
to mark Ashura, the holiest day in the Shia calendar. The so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed credit.

The target was Shia ethnic Hazaras, which have been the target of
almost a dozen terror attacks in the last two years. The Taliban, who
are mostly ethnic Sunni Pashtuns, fought against Hazaras in the
extremely bloody Afghan civil war of the early 1990s, climaxing in
1996. Many of these attacks are revenge attacks from that war.

ISIS claimed credit for the attack on the web site of its Amaq public
relations agency. With the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, tens of
thousands of ISIS fighters have been returning to their home
countries. The perpetrators of Wednesday's attack may have been an
existing Taliban group that pledged allegiance to ISIS, or they may
have been veteran terrorists returning from ISIS.

As I've written many times, from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, there is absolutely no possibility whatsoever that the
Afghan will be resolved peacefully. The younger generations that grew
up after the Afghan civil war are now coming of age, and are anxious
to exact revenge for atrocities that occurred during the war. As more
of these youngsters grow older, the violence will only increase and
occur more frequently.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Washington Post

Related Articles

• New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan (01-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters (22-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Trump's review of the Afghanistan war seeks solution where none exists (08-Aug-2017)
  
  
• ISIS claims responsibility for attack on Shia Hazaras in Kabul Afghanistan (24-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Africa, Kenya, China Communications Construction Company,
Somali Plate, China, Xi Jinping, Mao Zedong, Japan,
South Korea, India, Australia, Thailand, Cambodia, Pakistan,
Narendra Modi, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hitler, National Socialism,
Friedrich Nietzsche, Afghanistan, Kabul, Hazaras, Pashtuns,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Mar-18 World View -- Turkey's government takes control of last remaining independent news source

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's government takes control of last remaining independent news source
  
• South Africans furious at Australia for condemning white farmer land confiscation
  

****
**** Turkey's government takes control of last remaining independent news source
****


Dogan Holding television stations, Kanal D and CNN Turk (AFP)

Turkey is joining the ranks of China, Russia, Iran, Cambodia, Egypt,
Burundi, Cameroon and others in criminalizing the reporting of news
that criticizes the government, and jailing reporters who do so.

On Thursday, Turkey's government began the acquisition the last major
independent media company, Dogan Holding, which owns well known
publications including Hurriyet and CNN Turk.

Aydin Dogan, the 81 year old billionaire who founded Dogan Holding in
1979, announced the sale of all the media assets to Demirören Group, a
media group with a close relationship with Turkey's president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan. Dogan has had a difficult relationship with with
Erdogan's AK Party since the party came to party in 2002. The holding
face a record $2.5 billion in tax fines in 2009, which Dogan claimed
were politically motivated. The fines forced Dogan to sell some
assets to Demirören in 2011.

Ever since Turkey faced a botched coup attempt in June 2016, Erdogan
has used the coup attempt to become increasingly dictatorial and
authoritarian at every opportunity. Dozens of journalists have been
jailed on phony charges since the coup attempt, but Erdogan started
his purge well before the coup attempt, as shown by the actions
against Dogan since 2003.

In particular, four months before the coup, Turkey and the world were
shocked when Erdogan shut down Zaman,
the country's major opposition newspaper, the largest
newspaper in the country, and jailed some of its reporters.

There's almost no independent press remaining in Turkey. Cumhuriyet,
a mainstream opposition newspaper much smaller than Dogan, has had a
dozen of its employees imprisoned on phony charges, although many have
been released after a year in prison for lack of evidence.
France 24 and Bloomberg and Guardian (London) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Related Articles

• Turkey commemorates first anniversary of attempted coup (21-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West (22-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media (06-Mar-2016)
  
  
• More than a million of secularists rally in Turkey (14-May-2007)
  
  
• Turkey debates Islam versus secularism (26-Feb-2010)
  

****
**** South Africans furious at Australia for condemning white farmer land confiscation
****

Officials in South Africa's government are expressing fury at the
so-called "racist" statements by Australia’s Home Affairs Minister
Peter Dutton. South Africa recently announced a policy where the
government will confiscate land from white-owned farms with no compensation whatsoever
and turn it over
to black farmers. Dutton was reacting to that policy, as well as to
threats of violence targeting white farmers.

Dutton has announced that Australia should speed up the visas for
white farmers who, he claimed, are being "persecuted" by the
confiscation policy. "These people deserve special attention," Sutton
said. "From what I've seen they do need help from a civilized country
like ours."

Supporters of Dutton's policy are calling the land confiscation policy
"reverse racism." According to one, "The situation has become so
bleak, [that] being a farmer in South Africa is now the world's most
dangerous job."

South Africa's International Relations Minister Lindiwe Sisulu
demanded that Dutton withdraw his comments: "The impression created is
that white farmers in South Africa are living under horrific
conditions and there is a possibility of death. And all these
barbaric things are being put across about us."

Gareth Newham, an analyst with the Pretoria-based Institute for
Security Studies, said young black men faced a greater risk of being
murdered in South Africa than white farmers:

<QUOTE>"In fact, young black males living in poor urban areas
like Khayelitsha and Lange face a far greater risk of being
murdered. The murder rate there is between 200 and 300 murders per
100,000 people."<END QUOTE>

As I've described many times, a policy similar to the proposed land
confiscation policy was adopted in 1999 by Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe.
Zimbabwe had been an extremely wealthy country, the breadbasket of
southern Africa, exporting a great deal of food to other countries.
Mugabe threw the white farmers off the farms, and gave the farms to
blacks who were his political cronies, but didn't know how to farm.
Thanks to Mugabe, Zimbabwe turned from one of the wealthiest countries
to one of the poorest countries in the world, with mass starvation, a
worthless currency, and a massive million percent inflation rate.
EyeWitnessNews (South Africa) and South African Government and In Depth News

Related Stories

• Moving sharply left, South Africa calls for potentially disastrous land reform (01-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes (21-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Xenophobic violence against migrants returns to South Africa (27-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Dogan Holding, Hurriyet, CNN Turk,
Aydin Dogan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Zaman Media, Cumhuriet, Demirören Group,
South Africa, Australia, Peter Dutton, Lindiwe Sisulu,
Gareth Newham, Institute for Security Studies,
Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

I Posted this first on Your Forum John but I decided to post this here too:

Nobody is Denying 4T theory. What JohnX refuses to understand is that he refuses to acknowledge basic facts of the current world order.

1.) The US WON the cold war, the Berlin wall fell, the Communist bloc LOST the cold war. Also the Communist Bloc was never a true Compact entity.

2.) The US From 1980 until the recession was generally growing in strength relative to its rivals and enemies. The notion that Late 1970s America was stronger than 2008 America and even 2018 America is nonsense. The US was very weak in the late 1970s, why do you think the Iranian hostage Crisis occurred at all, also we had just lost the Vietnam war.

3.) The Recession has Hurt Europe far worse than the US because of Europeans even greater commitment to globalism. Germany Ironically initially escaped the effects of the recession but was deliberately plunged into systemic Crisis by Merkel's accepting of the refugees without the citizens consent.

4.) Generally, Globalism is the problem, not the solution.

5.) Large-scale conspiracies (involving more than several dozen people) are generally an impossibility. There is a reason why only Bin Laden, his inner circle and about 5 or 6 of the 19 hijackers knew of the full plan for 9/11 (the other hijackers were only told that they might be activated in a suicide attack, but no other details) the reason is that adding any more people to the plot would have exponentially increased the chance of someone spilling the beans. This is also why we know that Bin laden was the ultimate mastermind of 9/11 and that Saddam did not have WMDs in 2003. For Bin laden to have not been the mastermind would mean that 9/11 was initiated from Moscow or Beijing. If Saddam Had WMDs, why would he NOT have used them on the US troops, also to get WMDs out of Iraq meant that 1.) Someone helped Saddam and 2.) Saddam would have trusted anyone enough the let them have access to his WMDs. That is fundamentally out of character for a man who killed anyone who he perceived to be a threat to his power and survival. How do large-scale wars begin then?: Wars begin due to mass panics/hysteria among a population triggering military action.

6.) The US and Russia currently have the most advanced militaries in the world. China is modernizing but in sheer weight of weaponry of both the US and Russia clearly outclasses all other powers. For this reason China, Iran and others are developing asymmetric military tech. North Korea is NOT a large-scale military power, despite their pool of conscripted Manpower. The reason there has been no strike is apparently because the administration doesn't consider them a serious enough threat. If we do strike, we could eliminate their missile program within a matter of hours although we would have to fight a large-scale conventional and chemical war with them afterwards. The US is countering Chinese and Iranian asymmetric Techs and the fact that those nations are trying an asymmetric strategy shows how far behind they are militarily because that means they are unable to win fighting symmetrically.

7.) Asymmetric war means targeting weak points in military kill chains. It does not mean avoiding military forces altogether and focusing on non-military targets.

8.) The Current major Military Powers in strength are as follows:

1. US
2. Russia
3. China
4. India
5. Europe

9.) The Current Major Economic Powers are:
1. US
2. China
3. Japan
4. EU
5. Britain
6. Australia
7. India
8. Brazil
9. Indonesia

All of the Above are concrete facts that can be looked up simply by googling them, JohnX has Mostly denied these facts by implying or stating nonsense at times over the past 10 to 15 years such as:

1) That Globalism did not cause the recession and is not the problem and that globalists are somehow the ones who are trying to save the west. (a statement that there is no evidence of)

2) That the US lost the cold war and is weaker now than it was in the late 1970s (another statement that there is no evidence of, in fact the US first undertook a massive buildup under reagan in the 1980s, brought down the USSR in 1989-1992, had an economic renaissance in the 1990s, waged the war on terror after 9/11/2001 until 2011 successfully.)

3.) That there is no deep state (LOL entrenched interests have no interest whatsoever in genuine relations with either Russia or China, or in a strike on North Korea or Iran, OR actual military spending and industrial spending. Trump tried to campaign on changing this but the establishment has put a political gun to his head and told him to stick to existing policy or else).

4.) That boomers are responsible for american prosperity. (LOL boomers poor productivity in the 1970s led employers to begin the importation of foreign labor and led to the decline of American-owned manufacturing because its inefficiency during the time when boomers were the primary workforce. Politically the boomers supported carter, One of the worst presidents we've ever had, they imposed "Vietnam syndrome" on the military resulting in a perception of American weakness leading to 9/11. Boomers dismantled NASA, as a result we now rely on Russian and Chinese Charity for space missions. Boomers refused to allow government spending and took faith in the markets, which is why there has been no real recovery from the recession and finally they have dismantled the anti-predatory lending regulations, which is why the recession occurred in the first place.)

5. That China and Russia have networks of Military bases practically surrounding the US and other nations. (literally the opposite of the Truth, The US has over 5000 military bases overall, over 800 of whom are overseas surrounding Russia, China and Iran: Russia has a base in Syria and China's base in Djibouti and the relay system supporting the base can be easily interdicted in a serious war)

6.) That Russian capabilities are completely decrepit and rusted down. (This was true during most of the 1990s but has since changed due to the development of the Topal-M Nuclear missile in 1999, the Road Moblile Topal Nuclear Missile in the early to mid 2000s, the Yars series nuclear missiles since 2009, the Bulava Series nuclear Missiles during the 2010s and now the Maneuverable stealth Nuclear Missiles unveiled just a few weeks ago.)

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Mar-18 World View -- Report that Russia is helping the Taliban in Afghanistan contains delusional aspects

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Report that Russia is helping the Taliban in Afghanistan contains delusional aspects
  
• US warship sails near China's illegal artificial island in the South China Sea
  

****
**** Report that Russia is helping the Taliban in Afghanistan contains delusional aspects
****


US Army General and commander of US forces in Afghanistan John Nicholson (AFP)

During the 1980s, the Soviet Union became embroiled in its own version
of the Vietnam War -- an asymmetric fight against guerrilla forces in
Afghanistan that the Soviets couldn't win. Since the Soviets were
American enemies in those days, US forces aided the side opposing the
Soviets. The people we supported were the ethnic Pashtuns who later
became the Taliban, and their allies, a group of Saudi Wahhabi
jihadists, including Osama bin Laden, who later became al-Qaeda.

For two or three years, there have been consistent reports that the
Russians have been supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan with money
and weapons. The reasons stated for the support are that the Russians
don't want the Americans to have a permanent foothold in Afghanistan
and, by the way, they want to get revenge for helping their opponents
in the 1980s.

Now General John Nicholson, head of the US forces in Afghanistan, says
that the reports are true. According to Nicholson:

<QUOTE>"We’ve had stories written by the Taliban that have
appeared in the media about financial support provided by the
enemy. We’ve had weapons brought to this headquarters and given
to us by Afghan leaders and said, ‘This was given by the Russians
to the Taliban’.

We see a narrative that’s being used that grossly exaggerates the
number of Islamic State group fighters here. This narrative then
is used as a justification for the Russians to legitimize the
actions of Taliban and provide some degree of support to the
Taliban."<END QUOTE>

Nicholson says that by supplying weapons and money to the Taliban, the
Russians are interfering with the attempts to bring peace to
Afghanistan through negotiations and peace talks with the Taliban.

This whole story raises far more questions than it answers.
Apparently the weapons at issue are 1980s vintage, so it's possible
that they made their way into Taliban hands by another path.

The background story has several delusional elements. The Russians
today are blaming the whole 1980s Afghanistan fiasco on the United
States. According to the Russians, they were tricked into entering
the 1980s Afghanistan war by president Jimmy Carter's national
security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski. Brzezinski, who died last
year, apparently believed the same thing.

This is completely delusional on the part of both the Russians and
Brzezinski. There's no way that the Soviets committed hundreds of
thousands of troops to a ten-year war in Afghanistan on the basis of a
trick. However, the delusion has been convenient for both parties.
The Russians absolve themselves of the blame for the war by blaming it
on the Americans, and Brzezinski can continue to pat himself on the
back.

And it's true that the US supplied some weapons to the Pashtuns, just
as the Russians had supplied weapons to the North Vietnamese during
the Vietnam war. But supplying some weapons would not have made a
difference in the outcome of either war.

Another part of the delusion is that the Russians and the Taliban
could be allied in any meaningful way. Russia is allied with Iran,
which is allied with the Shia groups that the Taliban keeps trying to
kill. Furthermore, by supplying weapons to jihadists in Afghanistan,
those jihadist could travel to Russia and use the weapons there.

The biggest delusion -- on the part of the American administration --
is that a peace agreement can be reached.

I've described in detail the reasons why a peace agreement is
impossible many times (see "23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'"
), but the one-sentence summary of the
reasoning is this: Young Pashtuns are coming of age, and looking for
vengeance against the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that they fought in
the bloody civil war of 1991-96.

However, as I've written in the past, the Nato alliance and the US
administration appear to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with
China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American
troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several
American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in
Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be
valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances,
having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are
defeated or not. CBS News and BBC and Russia Today (29-May-2017)

Related Articles

• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

****
**** US warship sails near China's illegal artificial island in the South China Sea
****

The US Navy on Friday conducted a new "freedom of navigation"
operation in the South China Sea.

The warship USS Mustin traveled within 12 nautical miles of China's
illegal artificial island and military base near Mischief Reef in the
Spratly Islands, and carried out maneuvering operations.

According to Nicole Schwegman, a spokesman for the US Pacific Fleet:

<QUOTE>"We conduct routine and regular freedom of navigation
operations, as we have done in the past and will continue to do in
the future."<END QUOTE>

As usual, the Chinese were furious and began emitting nonsense.
According to China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying:

<QUOTE>"On March 23, USS Mustin entered the neighboring
waters of relevant islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Qundao
without the permission of the Chinese government. The Chinese navy
has identified and verified the US warship and warned it to leave
in accordance with the law. The relevant act of the US side has
violated the Chinese law and relevant international law, infringed
upon China's sovereignty, undermined peace, security and order of
the relevant waters and put in jeopardy the facilities and
personnel on the Chinese islands, and thus constitutes a serious
political and military provocation.

China has indisputable sovereignty over Nansha Qundao and its
adjacent waters."<END QUOTE>

The problem we have with both China and Russia these days is that they
lie so often that we have to assume that everything they say is
completely worthless.

This statement claims "indisputable sovereignty." Is Hua Chunying a
complete idiot? Or does she think that the rest of us are so stupid
that we'll believe any nonsense that comes out of her mouth. The
claim of "indisputable sovereignty" is a lie on its face because much
of the world disputes it. The South China Sea are international
waters, as declared by the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration in the Hague, which eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea,
in July,
2013. It's China, not the United States, that's violating
international law on a continuing basis. Reuters and China's Foreign Ministry

Related Articles

• How China would lose a war with the United States (22-Mar-2018)
  
  
• China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' in new confrontation in South China Sea (21-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Russia, Taliban,
John Nicholson, Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski,
USS Mustin, South China Sea, Mischief Reef, Spratly Islands,
Nicole Schwegman, Hua Chunying,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague

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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

(03-23-2018, 04:50 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: 9.) The Current Major Economic Powers are:
1. US
2. China
3. Japan
4. EU
5. Britain
6. Australia
7. India
8. Brazil
9. Indonesia

All of the Above are concrete facts that can be looked up simply by googling them, JohnX has Mostly denied these facts by implying or stating nonsense at times over the past 10 to 15 years such as:

Much of your post is valid but this is not a correct ranking.  The US and the EU are approximately tied for first on economic power, China is third at not much more than half of either the US or the EU.  I did not check the rest of your list.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-23-2018, 04:50 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > I Posted this first on Your Forum John but I decided to post this
> here too:

> Nobody is Denying 4T theory. What JohnX refuses to understand is
> that he refuses to acknowledge basic facts of the current world
> order.

> 1.) The US WON the cold war, the Berlin wall fell, the Communist
> bloc LOST the cold war. Also the Communist Bloc was never a true
> Compact entity.

> 2.) The US From 1980 until the recession was generally growing in
> strength relative to its rivals and enemies. The notion that Late
> 1970s America was stronger than 2008 America and even 2018 America
> is nonsense. The US was very weak in the late 1970s, why do you
> think the Iranian hostage Crisis occurred at all, also we had just
> lost the Vietnam war.

> 3.) The Recession has Hurt Europe far worse than the US because of
> Europeans even greater commitment to globalism. Germany Ironically
> initially escaped the effects of the recession but was
> deliberately plunged into systemic Crisis by Merkel's accepting of
> the refugees without the citizens consent.

> 4.) Generally, Globalism is the problem, not the solution.

> 5.) Large-scale conspiracies (involving more than several dozen
> people) are generally an impossibility. There is a reason why only
> Bin Laden, his inner circle and about 5 or 6 of the 19 hijackers
> knew of the full plan for 9/11 (the other hijackers were only told
> that they might be activated in a suicide attack, but no other
> details) the reason is that adding any more people to the plot
> would have exponentially increased the chance of someone spilling
> the beans. This is also why we know that Bin laden was the
> ultimate mastermind of 9/11 and that Saddam did not have WMDs in
> 2003. For Bin laden to have not been the mastermind would mean
> that 9/11 was initiated from Moscow or Beijing. If Saddam Had
> WMDs, why would he NOT have used them on the US troops, also to
> get WMDs out of Iraq meant that 1.) Someone helped Saddam and 2.)
> Saddam would have trusted anyone enough the let them have access
> to his WMDs. That is fundamentally out of character for a man who
> killed anyone who he perceived to be a threat to his power and
> survival. How do large-scale wars begin then?: Wars begin due to
> mass panics/hysteria among a population triggering military
> action.

> 6.) The US and Russia currently have the most advanced militaries
> in the world. China is modernizing but in sheer weight of weaponry
> of both the US and Russia clearly outclasses all other powers. For
> this reason China, Iran and others are developing asymmetric
> military tech. North Korea is NOT a large-scale military power,
> despite their pool of conscripted Manpower. The reason there has
> been no strike is apparently because the administration doesn't
> consider them a serious enough threat. If we do strike, we could
> eliminate their missile program within a matter of hours although
> we would have to fight a large-scale conventional and chemical war
> with them afterwards. The US is countering Chinese and Iranian
> asymmetric Techs and the fact that those nations are trying an
> asymmetric strategy shows how far behind they are militarily
> because that means they are unable to win fighting symmetrically.

> 7.) Asymmetric war means targeting weak points in military kill
> chains. It does not mean avoiding military forces altogether and
> focusing on non-military targets.

> 8.) The Current major Military Powers in strength are as follows:

> 1. US 2. Russia 3. China 4. India 5. Europe

> 9.) The Current Major Economic Powers are: 1. US 2. China 3. Japan
> 4. EU 5. Britain 6. Australia 7. India 8. Brazil 9. Indonesia

> All of the Above are concrete facts that can be looked up simply
> by googling them, JohnX has Mostly denied these facts by implying
> or stating nonsense at times over the past 10 to 15 years such as:

> 1) That Globalism did not cause the recession and is not the
> problem and that globalists are somehow the ones who are trying to
> save the west. (a statement that there is no evidence of)

> 2) That the US lost the cold war and is weaker now than it was in
> the late 1970s (another statement that there is no evidence of, in
> fact the US first undertook a massive buildup under reagan in the
> 1980s, brought down the USSR in 1989-1992, had an economic
> renaissance in the 1990s, waged the war on terror after 9/11/2001
> until 2011 successfully.)

> 3.) That there is no deep state (LOL entrenched interests have no
> interest whatsoever in genuine relations with either Russia or
> China, or in a strike on North Korea or Iran, OR actual military
> spending and industrial spending. Trump tried to campaign on
> changing this but the establishment has put a political gun to his
> head and told him to stick to existing policy or else).

> 4.) That boomers are responsible for american prosperity. (LOL
> boomers poor productivity in the 1970s led employers to begin the
> importation of foreign labor and led to the decline of
> American-owned manufacturing because its inefficiency during the
> time when boomers were the primary workforce. Politically the
> boomers supported carter, One of the worst presidents we've ever
> had, they imposed "Vietnam syndrome" on the military resulting in
> a perception of American weakness leading to 9/11. Boomers
> dismantled NASA, as a result we now rely on Russian and Chinese
> Charity for space missions. Boomers refused to allow government
> spending and took faith in the markets, which is why there has
> been no real recovery from the recession and finally they have
> dismantled the anti-predatory lending regulations, which is why
> the recession occurred in the first place.)

> 5. That China and Russia have networks of Military bases
> practically surrounding the US and other nations. (literally the
> opposite of the Truth, The US has over 5000 military bases
> overall, over 800 of whom are overseas surrounding Russia, China
> and Iran: Russia has a base in Syria and China's base in Djibouti
> and the relay system supporting the base can be easily interdicted
> in a serious war)

> 6.) That Russian capabilities are completely decrepit and rusted
> down. (This was true during most of the 1990s but has since
> changed due to the development of the Topal-M Nuclear missile in
> 1999, the Road Moblile Topal Nuclear Missile in the early to mid
> 2000s, the Yars series nuclear missiles since 2009, the Bulava
> Series nuclear Missiles during the 2010s and now the Maneuverable
> stealth Nuclear Missiles unveiled just a few weeks ago.)

The six "facts" that you attribute to me almost entirely are not my
beliefs and not even recognizable to me. Proves what a complete moron
and liar you are.

(03-23-2018, 04:50 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Nobody is Denying 4T theory.

You've denied it many times. You don't even understand it. You don't
even know the difference between a crisis era and a non-crisis era.
Your brain is a mishmash of nonsense, driven by vitriolic hatred of
Boomers, probably because you hate your father. I'm not your father,
and if I were, then I would disown you.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Mar-18 World View -- The Pivotal Generation (Generation Z) marches for gun control, tilting at windmills

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Florida school shooting causes millions of high school students to rally for gun control
  
• The rise of the Pivotal Generation (Generation Z)
  
• Defining the generations -- Silent, Boomer, Generation-X, Millennial, Pivotal
  

****
**** Florida school shooting causes millions of high school students to rally for gun control
****


High-school students and their families in Washington on Saturday for the 'March for our Lives' (ZeroHedge)

Saturday's "March for our Lives" rallies were national and
international. The current generation of high-school students held a
spectacular coming-out part on Saturday, as millions students and
their families flooded into Washington, and cities around the world.
For many of the kids, this must have been the most exciting and
thrilling day of their young lives.

So the first thing to understand is that these kids are not
Millennials. People born since 1999 are in a new generation, the next
generation after Millennials, called the Pivotal Generation (because
they're pivoting away from the Millennials), or often called
"Generation Z" (a name they hate).

The recent school shooting in Florida has triggered a rather
spectacular entrance by the Pivotals into national politics, and
they're driving politics in several new directions that differ from
the Millennials.

Democrats completely co-opted Saturdays "March for our Lives" rallies
by completely excluding any high school student from speaking who took
any position contrary to the positions of the Democratic party
leadership. Thus all the political messages were pro-gun control,
anti-Republican, anti-National Rifle Association (NRA), and opposed to
any solutions proposed by other parties, such as gun violence
restraining orders, arming school resource officers, and updating
instant criminal background checks.

However, the kids in the Pivotal Generation do not by any means hold
positions matching those in the Democratic Party. As for getting gun
control enacted, they're tilting at windmills. Within a few months,
the Pivotals will be on to a new and even more exciting issue, and
this issue will be forgotten. NBC News and March for Our Lives web site and Zero Hedge

****
**** The rise of the Pivotal Generation (Generation Z)
****

The attitudes of the Pivotals are not anti-NRA at their core. The
Pivotals are pro-security, especially school security. The rallies
were called "March for our Lives," not "March to kill the NRA." Since
there's really no solution to the school security problem, they
allowed their rally to be co-opted by the anti-NRA stance because it's
the only thing they understand. However, the pro-security policy is
much more right wing than left wing.

Research on the Pivotals during the last year or two has revealed
three major themes in their political beliefs:

• Demands for total equality (left wing). The "total equality"
  policy is related to race, sex, religion, etc. However, the total
  equality idea is abandoned as soon as its inconvenient. In
  particular, Pivotals are fully on board with total age discrimination
  against older generations.
  
  
• High security and safety (right wing). This policy morphed into a
  left-wing anti-NRA stance on Saturday, but it's basically a right-wing
  position emphasizing greater personal security. An event like a major
  jihadist terrorist attack on American soil or a major military setback
  could cause the Pivotals to adopt right-wing political issues just as
  quickly as the Florida school shooting caused them to adopt left-wing
  gun control positions.
  
  
• Working for success (right wing). This might be called the
  "anti-snowflake" stance. Pivotals sometimes describe Millennials in
  the same way that Boomers see Millennials -- as "snowflakes" who feel
  that they're entitled to success without having to work for it. The
  Pivotals as young children lived through the financial crisis, and see
  themselves as having to work for their success. The right event could
  cause many Pivotals to adopt political positions opposed to much
  welfare and domestic spending.

In generational theory, a "regeneracy event" is an event that
regenerates civic unity and unifies the country behind the country's
leader for the first time since the end of the preceding generational
crisis war (WW II in this case). A regeneracy event today might be,
for example, a North Korean nuclear weapon ballistic missile attack on
Los Angeles. With their demand for total security and willingness to
work for success, the Pivotals in case of war would combine into a
powerful patriotic force willing to do whatever is necessary to fight
for the nation. They will truly be the next "Greatest Generation."

Whatever events unfold in the future, the Pivotal Generation is
pivoting away from Millennials and other generations, and is adopting
a unique set of attitudes and behaviors that will end up being a
surprise to everyone, including both political parties. Barkley US and Barkley US (PDF) and Reno Gazette and Inc

****
**** Defining the generations -- Silent, Boomer, Generation-X, Millennial, Pivotal
****

According to the US government Census Bureau:

<QUOTE>"The term “baby boomer” refers to individuals born in
the United States between mid-1946 and mid-1964 (Hogan, Perez, and
Bell, 2008). Distinctions between the baby boom cohort and birth
cohorts from preceding and subsequent years become apparent when
fertility measures are framed within a historical context. The
baby boom in the United States was marked by a substantial rise in
birth rates post-World War II. Two features of the baby boom
differentiate this increase from those previously experienced: the
size of the birth cohort and the length of time for which these
higher levels of fertility were sustained."<END QUOTE>

In other words, many couples held off having children during the Great
Depression and World War II, but as soon as the war ended they started
having children as quickly as possible.

The birth year range 1946-1964 for Boomers makes sense for demographic
purposes, which is the business that the Census Bureau is in. But
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's not particularly
useful. The useful question is NOT "When is the first year that
babies were born after World War II?" The useful question is: "When
is the first year that babies were born when they were never
personally aware of and traumatized by the horrific events of World
War II?"

Generally speaking, you have to be about four years old to be aware of
what's going on in the world, and so for generational theory, the
earliest birth year for the Boomers is not 1946, but is 1942. Anyone
born earlier (the Silent Generation) would likely have been
traumatized by World War II, and anyone born later would likely not
have even been aware of World War II. That's why I don't use the
phrase "born after WW II" to describe the Boomers. Instead, I use the
phrase "growing up after WW II."

The Silent Generation is the one preceding the Boomers. They got that
name in an interesting way. They were originally called the
"Depression Babies," obviously because they were born just before or
during the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, during the 1950s,
Time Magazine began calling them the "Silent Generation," and the name
stuck.

The reason that Time called them the Silent Generation is because they
never complained about anything. They had grown up during the
Depression, they had seen their fathers, brothers and uncles die
gruesomely during the war, and by the 1950s they were happy to have
families, jobs, and a home with a white picket fence. They did their
jobs, and worked patriotically to help rebuild the world after World
War II.

The period after a crisis war like World War II is called a "Recovery
Era," since it's everybody's job to help the nation and the world
recover from the war.

The Census Bureau says that the last birth year for Boomers was 1964.
Once again, that's useful for demographers, but for Generational
Theory, we identify the end of the Recovery Era and the beginning of
the "Awakening Era" as the beginning of social activism by Boomers, as
they come of age. For us, the 1963 March on Washington for Jobs and
Freedom is the beginning of the Awakening Era, as the first major
activist event by the Boomers. As in the case of the Boomers, we
subtract four years, and set 1959 as the last birth year for the
Boomers and the first birth year for Generation-X.

The children in Generation-X grew up in a world that seemed like total
chaos to them. There was rioting in the streets, males were burning
their draft cards, girls were burning their bras, there was streaking,
there was the Summer of Love in 1967, the riots at the Democratic
convention in 1968, the killing of students at Kent State University,
and a vast generation gap over the Vietnam war and race and
environment issues.

Whereas the Boomers were pampered as children in the Baby Boom
following WW II, the Gen-Xers were left mostly on their own, and were
definitely not pampered. Whereas the Boomers had a stable childhood
with families and parents with jobs, the Gen-Xers were surrounded by
social unrest and instability. In particular, feminist organizations
were telling mothers to dump their husbands, and not let the kids see
their fathers, in order to get as much money as possible. So many
Gen-Xers grew up with no fathers, with a chaotic personal life, and a
great deal of bitterness towards the Boomer generation, whom they
blamed for their misfortunes. Without fathers and with no moral
compass, they had a high delinquency rate, and are one of the most
jailed generation in American history.

As I've described many times in the last 15 years, Generation-X got
their revenge against their fathers by bringing about the financial
crisis. In the 1990s. Gen-Xers got degrees in "Financial
Engineering," and used their skills in the 2000s to knowingly create
trillions of dollars' worth of fraudulent subprime mortgage backed
securities, which they could sell to the parents' generation to get
revenge. The result was that millions of people when bankrupt and
loss their homes.

The Awakening Era began in 1963 and ended in 1983. That was followed
by the "Unraveling Era," where all the rules and institutions that had
been implement in the 1950s to prevent another Great Depression and
another World War were dismantled. This resulted in the "tech bubble"
of the late 1990s and the huge "credit bubble" of the mid 2000s
decade.

The Unraveling Era was a period of opulent wealth in the hands of many
people -- mainly because they went deeply into debt, and spent the
money on cars, vacations, and other items of conspicuous consumption.

The Unraveling Era begin in 1983 and ended in 2003, 58 years after the
end of World War II. 2003 was the beginning of the new "Crisis Era."
The birth years for the next generation, the Millennial Generation,
was thus 1979 to 1999. Millennials grew during this period of
opulence provided by astronomical debt, many Millennials developed the
attitude that money and success could just be given to them.

The financial crisis brought this period of opulence to an abrupt end.
The Pivotal Generation, which grew up during this period, pivoted away
from the Millennials and adopted that attitude that it's necessary to
work had for money and success.

Incidentally, the name "Pivotal Generation" is only temporary. Just
as the "Depression Babies" became the "Silent Generation," the Pivotal
Generation will be given a new name by society at some point in the
future, after they've actually accomplished something, rather than
just giving press conferences in Washington. US Census Bureau (PDF) and Pew Research

Related Articles:

• Greenspan warns Baby Boomers not to count on Social Security and Medicare (30-Aug-2004)
  
  
• Boomers commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Summer of Love. (12-Jun-2007)
  
  
• Barack Obama to Boomers: Drop dead! (23-Jan-2007)
  
  
• The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X (21-Jan-2008)
  
  
• New documentary movie 'Generation Zero' brings generational theory to the public. (22-Feb-2010)
  
  
• Summary of articles on generational theory (05-May-2009)
  
  
• Reader comments on 'The Big Short' and the financial crisis (27-Dec-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pivotal Generation, Generation Z,
March for our Lives, Millennials, snowflakes,
National Rifle Association, NRA, Silents, Boomers,
Recovery Era, Awakening Era, Unraveling Era, Crisis Era,
Summer of Love, Kent State University, Financial Engineering

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

These teens are still entitled Millenials.

[pbrower2a]

What is contrary?

This:

http://www.wilx.com/video?vid=477835893

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-25-2018, 01:06 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > What is contrary? This:

> http://www.wilx.com/video?vid=477835893

As I understand it, 60 people showed up for the pro-gun rally, and
close to a million showed up for the anti-gun rally.

[Cynic Hero '86]

A sad sight; the Homelanders/New Silents/Pivotals are being taken advantage of by globalists intent on destroying America's freedoms and who are intent on destroying any potential for American Greatness.

[pbrower2a]

(03-25-2018, 02:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-25-2018, 01:06 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   What is contrary?  This:

>   http://www.wilx.com/video?vid=477835893

As I understand it, 60 people showed up for the pro-gun rally, and
close to a million showed up for the anti-gun rally.

True. Which means that America may be approaching a tipping point for banning 'massacre weapons'.  All that is needed is for the politicians be in place for enacting laws to the effect.

If guns bring freedom, then why was the Soviet Union not a free country with all the really-good AK-47 machine guns?

[pbrower2a]

(03-25-2018, 02:49 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: A sad sight; the Homelanders/New Silents/Pivotals are being taken advantage of by globalists intent on destroying America's freedoms and who are intent on destroying any potential for American Greatness.

Some freedoms are negative -- like the right to not be hit by a drunk driver or being turned into man-burger by a massacre weapon. The prohibition against driving northbound in the southbound lanes of traffic on an Interstate is a small price to pay for safe driving.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Mar-18 World View -- Spain's arrests of Catalonia secessionist leaders revive memories of Franco's brutal atrocities

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violent clashes with police in Spain's Catalonia follow arrest of Puigdemont in Germany
  
• Spain's arrests of Catalonia secessionist leaders revive memories of Franco's brutal atrocities
  

****
**** Violent clashes with police in Spain's Catalonia follow arrest of Puigdemont in Germany
****


Catalonia protesters clash with police in Barcelona on Sunday (AP)

At least 50 people were injured on Sunday when tens of thousands of
supporters of Carles Puigdemont, the former leader of Spain's
Catalonia region, clashed with Spanish policy in Barcelona,
Catalonia's capital city, after Puigdemont was arrested in Germany,
based on a European arrest warrant issued by a Spanish court.

The story of Puigdemont's arrest is a kind of spy thriller.

Puigdemont led a failed attempt at Catalonian independence in
September of last year, after which a Spanish court issued a warrant
for his arrest on charges of treason and sedition. He fled to
Belgium, where authorities refused an extradition request, on
condition that Puigdemont not leave Belgium. Spain retracted the
arrest warrant earlier this year, leaving Puigdemont free to travel
again.

He traveled to Finland to give some lectures, but on Friday Spain's
government issued new arrest warrants for Puigdemont and for other
leaders who had supported the attempt at secession.

The new arrest warrant caught Puigdemont by surprise. When Puigdemont
got word of the new arrest warrant on Friday, he immediately tried to
flee Finland by car, hoping to reach the safety of Belgium undetected.
He crossed the border into Sweden, and traveled south into Denmark.
From there he crossed the border into Germany, and was recognized and
arrested in Germany when he stopped at a filling station.

If Germany extradites Puigdemont back to Spain, and he is convicted of
the crimes he's charged with, then the punishment will be 25-30 years
in prison. However, Puigdemont's lawyers will try to convince
Germany's courts that they can't extradite because the arrest is
political. This is similar to the reasoning that Belgium's court used
when it refused to extradite him. Under EU rules, a court in one EU
member state can only extradite a person sought by another member
state if they are confident the suspect will face equivalent fair
legal procedures and trial. The battles in Germany's courts are
expected to continue for weeks. For the time being, Puigdemont is in
a German jail.

Puigdemont's arrest has infuriated the half of Catalonia's public that
support him. The other half of Catalonia's public is against
independence, and many of them believe that Puigdemont should be
charged and jailed. Irish Times and BBC and AP and CNN



****
**** Spain's arrests of Catalonia secessionist leaders revive memories of Franco's brutal atrocities
****

As I described last year in "23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum"
,
memories of Generalísimo Francisco Franco's fascist nationalism and
his brutal atrocities targeting Catalonians in the extremely bloody
Spanish Civil War (1936-39) are now being revived.

Puigdemont's arrest by the Germans is being compared on social media
to the arrest by the German Gestapo of Lluís Companys, the president
of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War.

After Franco's victory in the Battle of the Ebro on July 25, 1938, at
the climax of the Spanish Civil War, Franco began an offensive against
Catalonia, forcing the government of Catalonia to exile itself in
France. They were safe in France until France capitulated to the
Nazis in June 1940. Companys was arrested by the German Gestapo in
Brittany on August 13th 1940 and handed over to the Francoist
authorities on August 29th. Companys was held in solitary
confinement, tortured and eventually executed by firing squad on
October 14, 1940.

There are few people alive today who have personal memories of the
Spanish Civil War and of the capture and execution of Companys.
However, Francisco Franco did not die until 1975, and there are many
people alive today, including Puigdemont himself, who have personal
memories of Franco and of his severe repression of the Catalan region.

That's why many Catalonians today are comparing the German arrest of
Puigdemont to the 1940 Gestapo arrest of another Catalan leader, Lluís
Companys. If the German courts decide to extradite Puigdemont and
turn him over to Spain's government, then the circle of history will
be complete. AFP and TeleSur TV and Barcelonas.com

Related Articles

• Catalonia's leader says the region has 'won the right to statehood' from Spain (02-Oct-2017)
  
  
• The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum (23-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Catalonia referendum poised to go ahead despite Spain's harsh repressive measures (01-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Catalonia will vote for independence from Spain on Thursday (25-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Scotland's independence referendum is encouraging Catalonia's separatists (11-Sep-2014)
  
  
• Catalonia parliament votes to secede from Spain (10-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Catalonia, Barcelona,
Carles Puigdemont, Finland, Germany, Belgium,
Spanish Civil War, Generalísimo Francisco Franco,
Lluis Companys, Battle of the Ebro, Gestapo

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-25-2018, 06:13 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > True. Which means that America may be approaching a tipping point
> for banning 'massacre weapons'. All that is needed is for the
> politicians be in place for enacting laws to the effect.

> If guns bring freedom, then why was the Soviet Union not a free
> country with all the really-good AK-47 machine guns?

When Obama was in office, every time he opened his mouth about guns,
gun sales surged. Obama was the best gun salesman in the world.
Today, gun-maker Remington filed for bankruptcy. Trump can't sell
guns the way Obama can.

For reduced gun sales, support Trump!

[pbrower2a]

It is surprising that so venerable a firm as Remington Arms could go under, but according to the Wikipedia article the company has sought bankruptcy protection. I cannot find the links to the back0-up citations, but apparently quality of the weapons went down while the company amassed D-E-B-T.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-26-2018, 07:11 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It is surprising that so venerable a firm as Remington Arms could
> go under, but according to the Wikipedia article the company has
> sought bankruptcy protection. I cannot find the links to the
> back0-up citations, but apparently quality of the weapons went
> down while the company amassed D-E-B-T.

According to a couple of reports that I heard, Remington assault guns
were involved in the 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in
Newtown, Connecticut, and their sales have been falling ever since.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/26/remingto...uptcy.html

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Mar-18 World View -- Al-Houthi missile attack on Saudi cities sharply escalates the Yemen war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen's Iran-backed al-Houthi rebels launch barrage of missile attacks on Saudi cities
  
• Al-Houthi missile attack on Saudi cities sharply escalates the Yemen war
  

****
**** Yemen's Iran-backed al-Houthi rebels launch barrage of missile attacks on Saudi cities
****


Light show over Saudi capital city Riyadh, as American-supplied Patriot missiles intercept ballistic missiles launched by al-Houthis in Yemen (CNN)

The Yemen war sharply escalated on Monday when the rebel al-Houthis
launched a barrage of seven ballistic missiles from Yemen across the
Saudi Arabia border. Three of them targeted the capital city Riyadh,
while the other four targeted other nearby cities. In all cases,
civilian neighborhoods were targeted.

The Saudis targeted the incoming missiles with defensive
American-supplied Patriot missiles. At least one and possibly two of
the Patriot missiles failed to achieve its objective of destroying the
incoming missile. One incoming missile hit a residential area, and
another exploded in mid-air shortly after launch. An Egyptian woman
was killed, though it's not clear whether she was killed by an
incoming missile or by falling debris from a missile destroyed in
flight.

Saudi officials are claiming that the missiles must have been supplied
by Iran, since they were too sophisticated to have been developed by
the al-Houthis themselves. The missile attack is infuriating the
Saudis, who are becoming increasingly belligerent and nationalistic,
and the attack raises the possibility that the Saudis might retaliate
militarily directly against Iran.

Yemen is considered to be the worst humanitarian disaster in the world
today. Out of a population of 27.6 million, about 50,000 people have
died of starvation, and 8.4 million more are on the verge of
starvation. Disease is rampant, where over one million people have
contracted cholera. The Saudis have largely blocked the ports,
preventing humanitarian food and water from being delivered, leaving
the people on their own.

Saudi Arabia has been under increasing international pressure to end
the Yemen war and end the humanitarian disaster. Both Britain and the
US have been supplying weapons to the Saudis, and politicians in both
countries have been demanding that the supply of weapons be stopped.

The Saudis point out that they're acting on behalf of the
UN-recognized government of Yemen, and that they're fighting rebels
who have overthrown the legitimate government. They also point out
that an Iran-backed Houthi government on the Saudi southern border
would present an existential threat. Gulf News (Dubai) and Saudi Gazette and CNN and The National (Abu Dhabi)

****
**** Al-Houthi missile attack on Saudi cities sharply escalates the Yemen war
****

It's not clear why the al-Houthis launched this attack. Perhaps they
believe that by targeting civilian neighborhoods in Saudi Arabia, they
can build both international and Saudi domestic opposition to the war,
and force the Saudis to withdraw and hand a victory to the al-Houthis.

That might have been true in the 1990s during a generational
Unraveling era, when the Silent Generation, the last survivors of
World War II, were in charge, and there was a great aversion to war.
But today, we're in a generational Crisis era, with younger
generations in charge, and nationalism and xenophobia are surging
around the world.

So if the al-Houthis were hoping that this attack would convince the
Saudis to back down, there's no chance of that. Instead, increased
nationalism will cause the Saudis to take even more drastic steps to
win the war, while critics who want Britain and the US to stop
supplying weapons will be muted. I would expect the Saudis to sharply
escalate their actions in the next few weeks, possibly even taking
some action directly targeting Iran. Gulf News (Dubai) and The National (Abu Dhabi) and Business Insider and Foreign Policy

Related Articles:

• Saudi Arabia sacks its top tier of military commanders as Yemen war drags on (27-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden (29-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition (03-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen (21-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, al-Houthis,
Patriot missiles

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe