Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Mar-18 World View -- Tense Turkey-EU summit in Bulgaria once again ends in failure

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tense Turkey-EU summit in Bulgaria once again ends in failure
  
• Other unresolved issues from the EU-Turkey summit meeting
  

****
**** Tense Turkey-EU summit in Bulgaria once again ends in failure
****


After a tense meeting that accomplished nothing, the EU and Turkish leaders posed for a silly photo opportunity where they pretend to be friends. From left to right: Bulgaria's Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, European Council President Donald Tusk, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker

Tensions between the European Union and Turkey have been tense in the
last year, including EU referring to Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan as a "dictator," and Erdogan comparing the Dutch and German
governments to the Nazis.

So there was a summit meeting on Monday in Varna, Bulgaria, attended
by Erdogan, European Council President Donald Tusk, European
Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker, as well as Bulgaria's Prime
Minister Boyko Borissov. The purpose of the meeting was to mend
relations between Turkey and the EU.

There was a lot of angry rhetoric, and there were whole lists of
issues on both sides that were left unresolved. However, neither side
wanted to risk a total breakdown on relations, so they agreed to
continue the EU-Turkey refugee deal, at least in part:

• To control the flow of migrants from Turkey to Greece, across
  the Aegean Sea, the agreement specified that Turkey would patrol its
  Aegean Sea beaches and prevent migrants from leaving shore. Turkey's
  actions reduced the flow of migrants from millions in 2015 to hundreds
  of thousands in 2017.
  
  
• The EU had promised to provide €6 billion to Turkey, for
  humanitarian assistance to Syrian migrants living in Turkey, in two
  separate €3 billion payments. However, only €1.8 billion
  has been provided so far, and Erdogan is demanding that the EU fulfill
  its promise.
  
  
• Visa liberalization: The EU promised to allow all citizens of
  Turkey to have visa-free travel throughout Europe's Schengen zone by
  the end of June 2016. The EU has never fulfilled this
  promise.

Erdogan has repeatedly expressed fury in particular that the visa-free
travel has not been permitted. RTE (Ireland)
and EU Observer and
Reuters and Kathimerini (Athens)

****
**** Other unresolved issues from the EU-Turkey summit meeting
****

At the conclusion of Monday's summit meeting, European Council
president Donald Tusk said:

<QUOTE>"If you are asking me if we achieved some solutions or
compromises, my answer is no. What I can say that is that I raised
all our concerns, as you know it was a long list."<END QUOTE>

EU accession continues to be a major point of hostility -- the process
of allowing Turkey to become a member of the European Union. There
have been talks since 2005, but there has been enormous hostility on
both sides historically rooted from the time when Turkey's Ottoman
Empire and European nations were at war. The talks were frozen
completely following the failed coup in July, 2016.

The most recent major new disagreement occurred two weeks ago, when
Turkey sent warships to block gas and oil exploration in Cyprus’
Exclusive Economic Zone.

Cyprus has been bitterly divided since a 1974 war, with Greek Orthodox
Christian Greeks governing the south, and Muslim Turks governing the
north. The two sides are partitioned by a "no-man's land," a strip
that stretches 112 miles across the entire island. Today, it's only
the Greek government of Cyprus that is recognized by the EU, and is a
member of the EU.

Turkey has condemned actions by the Greek Cyprus government to drill
for oil and gas without an agreement that Turkey should receive a
share of the revenue.

In February, Turkish warships blocked an Italian company that was
scheduled to drill in Cyprus's territorial waters. Turkey said it
would prevent any further drilling off Cyprus without the direct
involvement of the Turkish Cypriots.

EU leaders made clear that the EU was in solidarity with Cyprus, and
that it was necessary for Turkey to improve its relations with both
Greece and Cyprus.

Another recent disagreement is related to the war in Syria, and to
Turkey's Operation Olive Branch, whose purpose is to take control of
Syria's northern border city of Afrin. The message from the EU has
been mixed. Afrin was controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection
Units (YPG), which is linked to the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK). The PKK has conducted numerous violent terrorist acts on
Turkish soil, and is recognized as a terrorist group by the United
States and the EU. So the mixed message from the EU in recent days
was "you have a right to protect your border, but don't go too far in
killing or displacing civilians." EU officials are giving the Afrin
operation as another reason for a delay in further accession talks.

However, with regard to the military operation in Afrin, Erdogan said
he expects the EU’s support in dealing with terrorists. Erdogan
said:

<QUOTE>"It would be a grave mistake for Europe, which claims
to be a global force, to push Turkey out of its expansion policy.

Our operations against terrorism not only contribute to the
security of ourselves and the Syrians but also to the security of
Europe.

We now expect strong support [from Europe] on sensitive issues
such as the fight against terrorism instead of rambling and unjust
criticism.

I hope that we together have taken the first step of restoring
confidence between the EU and us [Turkey] today, but it is not
enough to say that we took this step; it has to be taken in
concrete terms.

We hope that we have left a difficult period in Turkey-EU
relations behind."<END QUOTE>

Other issues raised by the European Union include concerns about the
rule of law in Turkey, the mass jailing of journalists, and the
jailing of two Greek soldiers who accidentally crossed the border from
Greece into Turkey.

With regard to the Greek soldiers, European Commission president
Jean-Claude Jüncker said that they should be released from jail before
the Greek Orthodox Easter on April 8. (The Catholic Easter this year
is on April 1.) To Vima (Athens) and AP (22-Mar) and Cyprus Mail and EU Observer and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Related Articles

• Peace conference to reunite Cyprus adjourns without a deal (13-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Despite growing migration crises, European Union bitterly divided over policy (15-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Concerns grow of humanitarian disaster in Afrin, Syria, as Turkey's forces enter (16-Mar-2018)
  
  
• A new terrorist bombing (by PKK) in Istanbul Turkey kills dozens (11-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's president Erdogan visits Greece with a list of contentious demands (08-Dec-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Bulgaria, Boyko Borissov,
European Council, Donald Tusk, Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan,
European Commission, Jean-Claude Jüncker,
Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Syria, Operation Olive Branch, Afrin

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Mar-18 World View -- Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working
  
• The West reacts to Russia's poisoning of double-agent Skripal
  
• China reacts furiously to Western expulsion of Russian diplomats
  
• China 'prepares for war' with massive naval/air force drills in South China Sea
  

****
**** Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working
****


Early March: Vladimir Putin smirks when a BBC reporter asks him whether Russia poisoned Sergei Skripal

In 2011, massive protests and gun battles in Tunisia spread to Libya,
and by February, the bloodbath in Libya spread from Benghazi and
Tobruk in the east to Tripoli in the west. This caused a massive
refugee crisis in Libya, with hundreds of thousands of refugees
pouring into Egypt and neighboring countries, and across the
Mediterranean into Europe. That led the Arab League to demand that
the West implement a no-fly zone, and approval by the UN Security
Council. The no-fly zone eventually led to the war in Libya, and the
death of Muammar Gaddafi.

As I wrote in 2011, Russia adopted a specific policy of using the UN
Security Council as a tool to control the foreign policy of the United
States, Europe and NATO, while leaving itself free to pursue any
policy it wanted. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)

The way it works is that Russia demands that any military action taken
by the United States or Nato must be approved by the UN Security
Council, giving the Russians an effective veto of the US and Nato
foreign policy. On the other hand, Russia can invade Ukraine, invade
Crimea, annex Crimea, support war crimes by Syria's Bashar al-Assad,
all without getting any UN approval. So Russia has complete military
freedom, while the West is constrained by Russia's UNSC veto. It's
really a remarkable plan, and it's been incredibly successful,
completely crippling the UN, and turning it into a body that provides
cover for international criminals, rather than stopping them.

China has adopted a variation of the same strategy. China has built
artificial islands in the South China Sea, annexing other countries'
regions or blocking access by other countries to their centuries-old
fishing grounds, and has turned those artificial islands into massive
military bases. The United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in
the Hague eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea,
in July, 2013, and ruled that all of
China's activities are unambiguously violations of international law.

China's reaction is to say that international law doesn't apply to
them. China has also been using its military to bully other nations
into supporting them. It's as if the KKK lynched 10 black men and
then bullied cops and judges into supporting them.

So Russia and China have made it clear that international law doesn't
apply to them, and they can do anything they want, and they'll kill
anyone who tries to stop them.

Two recent international events, both major and remarkable, have made
it clear that this strategy is no longer working.

The first is the North Korea situation, where the Donald Trump
administration had made military threats that are actually credible.
A lot of people have said publicly that they think that Trump is
crazy, but that's a negotiating strategy that's worked to his
advantage, since both China and North Korea think he's crazy enough to
carry through with his threat. And it's clear that any military
action taken by the Trump administration will not be subject to a
Russian or Chinese veto in the UN Security Council.

****
**** The West reacts to Russia's poisoning of double-agent Skripal
****

The second remarkable international event is the Western reaction to
the March 4 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia,
using a
Russia-developed nerve agent Novichok. At this writing, both of the
poison victims are in hospital, and are not expected to survive.

From the beginning, there was little doubt that Russia was
responsible, and that they were sure they would get away with it,
because of Russia's veto power in the UN Security Council. As I
reported in my article, Russia's president Vladimir Putin smirked and
gave a sarcastic answer when a BBC reporter asked about it.

This was followed by a massive disinformation campaign by Russia by
Russian trolls, calling the accusations a "circus show," a "fairy
tale," and a "plot to victimize Russia." On the BBC a couple of days
ago, I heard a Russian official claim that this was the latest in 200
years of Western attacks on Russia.

Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson gave a furious response to
this:

<QUOTE>"There is something in the kind of smug, sarcastic
response that we’ve heard that indicates their fundamental
guilt. They want to simultaneously deny it, yet at the same time
to glory in it.

There is very little doubt in people’s minds that this is a
signature act by the Russia state – deliberately using novichok, a
nerve agent developed by Russia to punish a Russian defector as
they would see it, and in the run up to Vladimir Putin’s election.

This was a former Russian agent living in this country who had
been singled out already by the Russian state as an object for
revenge and retaliation, and Vladimir Putin has been on the TV
only recently saying that such people deserve to be poisoned, to
choke on their own 30 pieces of silver. This is a way of showing
look at what happens to people who stand up to our
regime."<END QUOTE>

An investigation of the evidence by scientists from Britain and
several other European countries led to the conclusion that Russia,
and probably Putin himself, were responsible for the poisoning.

That much isn't remarkable at all. Putin has had other former agents
poisoned in the past, and has violated international law many times,
and there were the same kinds of investigations, and the same kinds of
disinformation campaigns by Russian trolls. And there was always the
same smirk, because Putin knew that he would get away with it.

What is remarkable this time is that Western nations were united in
backing Britain's prime minister Theresa May in taking action against
Russia. Over 20 countries, including the US, Canada, and several
European Union countries, have expelled Russian diplomats.

Expelling diplomats is not going to do much damage to Putin. The
shocking thing is that all of these Western nations were unified in
condemning Russia, something that hasn't happened in the past. This
was meant to send a signal to Russia, and to China as well, the days
of using the United Nations to have veto power over Western foreign
policy are coming to an end. Guardian (London, 15-March) and Reuters (18-March)

****
**** China reacts furiously to Western expulsion of Russian diplomats
****

The expulsion of the diplomats by so many countries was a big surprise
to both Russia and China. China's state-controlled Global Times
responded with a furious editorial:

<QUOTE>"The fact that major Western powers can gang up and
"sentence" a foreign country without following the same procedures
other countries abide by and according to the basic tenets of
international law is chilling. During the Cold War, not one
Western nation would have dared to make such a provocation and yet
today it is carried out with unrestrained ease. Such actions are
nothing more than a form of Western bullying that threatens global
peace and justice."<END QUOTE>

It's laughable to read about the Chinese appealing to international
law. Keep in mind that what the Chinese are whining about is
expelling some diplomats. Contrast that to China's actions in the
South China Sea, which are violations of international law thousands
of times more serious than just expelling diplomats.

However, the article is right to say, "During the Cold War, not one
Western nation would have dared to make such a provocation and yet
today it is carried out with unrestrained ease." That was during a
generational Unraveling era, when everybody's behavior is far more
compromising. Today, the world is deep into a generational Crisis
era, and as I've written many dozens of times in recent years,
populations are becoming increasingly nationalistic, belligerent and
xenophobic.

<QUOTE>"Over the past few years the international standard
has been falsified and manipulated in ways never seen before. The
fundamental reason behind reducing global standards is rooted in
post-Cold War power disparities. The US, along with their allies,
jammed their ambitions into the international standards so their
actions, which were supposed to follow a set of standardized
procedures and protocol, were really nothing more than
profit-seizing opportunities designed only for themselves. These
same Western nations activated in full-force public
opinion-shaping platforms and media agencies to defend and justify
such privileges."<END QUOTE>

This is a typical Chinese anti-American rant. I don't know what
"full-force public opinion-shaping platforms and media agencies" this
is referring to, but in the West we have news sources expressing all
points of view, while in China if you express a view not approved by
the Chinese Communist Party, then you can get yourself abducted,
thrown into a pit, tortured and killed.

<QUOTE>"As of late, more foreign countries have been
victimized by Western rhetoric and nonsensical diplomatic
measures. In the end, the leaders of these nations are forced to
wear a hat featuring slogans and words that read "oppressing their
own people," "authoritarian," or "ethnic cleansing," regardless of
their innocence."<END QUOTE>

Who are these Chinese talking about? Maybe they're talking about the
officials in Myanmar (Burma) who are performing genocide and ethnic
cleansing on the Rohingyas.

<QUOTE>"It is beyond outrageous how the US and Europe have
treated Russia. Their actions represent a frivolity and
recklessness that has grown to characterize Western hegemony that
only knows how to contaminate international relations. Right now
is the perfect time for non-Western nations to strengthen unity
and collaborative efforts among one another. These nations need to
establish a level of independence outside the reach of Western
influence while breaking the chains of monopolization
declarations, predetermined adjudications, and come to value their
own judgement abilities.

It's already understood that to achieve such international
collective efforts is easier said than done as they require
foundational support before anything can happen. Until a new line
of allies emerges, multi-national associations like BRICS, or even
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, need to provide value to
those non-Western nations and actively create alliances with them.

What Russia is experiencing right could serve as a reflection of
how other non-Western nations can expect to be treated in the
not-to-distant future. Expelling Russian diplomats simultaneously
is hardly enough to deter Russia. Overall, it's an intimidation
tactic that has become emblematic of Western nations, and
furthermore, such measures are not supported by international law
and therefore unjustified. More importantly, the international
community should have the tools and means to counterbalance such
actions."<END QUOTE>

This gets to the heart of the matter. The Chinese are proposing to
create another international organization, perhaps a competitor to the
United Nations, where they would be in control. This idea is
completely delusional, since even if such an organization existed, it
would run into the same kinds of conflicts that occur in the UN
Security Council.

Russia and China in particular were almost in full-scale war with each
other in the 1960s. Today they have a marriage of convenience because
they're both annexing other countries' regions, doing what Hitler did
prior to WW II, and using each other to justify their actions. Russia
and China are basically two criminal countries, applying the rule of
"honor among thieves."

But the real message here is that China and Russia wish to formalize
their rejection of international law, which has formed the basis of
peace since the end of World War II.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Global Times

Related Articles

• Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal (13-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Russia uses an army of trolls on social media (15-Aug-2014)
  
  
• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea (10-Mar-2015)
  

****
**** China 'prepares for war' with massive naval/air force drills in South China Sea
****

China has begun conducting massive maritime combat drills, including
dozens of vessels mobilized in the South China Sea as part of what the
military said would be bigger, more frequent exercises in the tense
region.

It appears increasingly that China is preparing its population for
war. This is an essential first step before actually launching a war.

Satellite photos show an aircraft carrier and dozens of Chinese naval
vessels in a large show of force. The Air Force said on its social
media account that the exercises were "rehearsals for future wars and
are the most direct preparation for combat." Global Times and
Telegraph (London) and Newsweek and Stars and Stripes and Reuters

Related Articles:

• How China would lose a war with the United States (22-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tunisia, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Benghazi,
Mediterranean Sea, Arab League, Egypt, NATO,
Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
North Korea, China, Donald Trump, Theresa May,
Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal, Britain, Boris Johnson

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

Two countries that the rest of the world distrusts.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Mar-18 World View -- Ethiopia choose an Oromo leader, as Kenya has farcical confrontation with the courts

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ethiopia chooses Oromo leader, Abiy Ahmed, hoping to reduce violence
  
• Kenya's government vs the judiciary -- tensions mount over farcical deportation spectacle
  

****
**** Ethiopia chooses Oromo leader, Abiy Ahmed, hoping to reduce violence
****


Ethiopian protesters facing the military

Ethiopia has been without a prime minister since February 15, when
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned, saying, "I see my
resignation as vital in the bid to carry out reforms that would lead
to sustainable peace and democracy."

Since late 2015, there have been massive anti-government protests in
Ethiopia's Oromia region, which later spread to the neighboring Amhara
region, leaving hundreds dead and resulting in tens of thousands of
arrests. A state of emergency was imposed in October 2016, allowing
mass detentions, and imposing numerous restrictions on people’s
movement and communication. The state of emergency ended in August
2017, but massive protests began again, with millions of protesters by
February, leading to Hailemariam's resignation.

The situation has worsened considerably since Hailemariam's
resignation. Almost 10,000 Ethiopians, mostly ethnic Oromos, have
fled across the border into Kenya, after Ethiopian government soldiers
began shooting civilians indiscriminately, even in their homes and
shops.

In the hopes of ending the chaos and bloodshed, Ethiopia's ruling
government coalition chose an Oromo, Abiy Ahmed, 42, to be a leader of
the coalition. He is now expected to be voted in by parliament as the
country’s next prime minister.

Abiy is being described as a "polyglot," because he's a speaker of
three Ethiopian languages and English He holds a doctorate from Addis
Ababa University in traditional conflict resolution and has
represented his Oromiya hometown of Agaro in parliament since 2010.
He is a retired lieutenant-colonel who previously served as director
of the nation’s Information Network Security Agency, which says it
provides technical intelligence to support the government.

The obvious hope is that by selecting an Oromo as leader, Abiy will be
able to "reason with" the Oromo people and end the massive protests.

An analogy can be drawn with the situation in Myanmar (Burma). The
Burmese army, under the leadership of Buddhist Monk Ashin Wirathu
using Buddhism, began conducting massacres, rapes and torture against
ethnic Rohingyas. When Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi
effectively became the country's leader, it was welcomed by the entire
international community with the hope that the Burmese army would then
allow the Rohingyas to live in peace. Instead, the violence has only
gotten worse, to the point of ethnic cleansing and genocide, with some
800,000 Rohingyas forced to flee the violence by crossing the border
into Bangladesh. You can argue whether Suu Kyi approves of the ethnic
cleansing, or whether she disapproves but is forced to approve by the
Burmese army. Either way, Suu Kyi has effective turned into a new
Hitler, who is providing cover for the continued ethnic cleansing and
genocide.

We may be seeing the first signs of a similar situation in Ethiopia.
Abiy Ahmed is just one person, while the existing government,
dominated by ethnic Tigrayans, holds all 547 seats in parliament.
Abiy is going to be lone voice in the wilderness, compared to the
traditional opposition.

There may be a brief pause, but we can expect the protests and
violence to start again and continue. What will Abiy do then? Will
he be another Aung San Suu Kyi and provide cover for continued
Tigrayan violence against Oromos and Amharas? Or will he resign, just
as Hailemariam Desalegn, and denounce the violence?

It really doesn't make much difference. Either way, we can expect the
violence to continue, and we can expect millions more Oromos and
Amharas to flee across the border into Kenya, further destabilizing
the region. Africa News and Al Jazeera and Reuters and The Nation (Kenya, 14-Mar) and Bloomberg

Related Articles

• Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability (15-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister (17-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam (25-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** Kenya's government vs the judiciary -- tensions mount over farcical deportation spectacle
****

While Ethiopian Oromos are seeking fleeing violence into Kenya,
there's also chaos in Kenya's capital city Nairobi, where a
farcical deportation spectacle highlighted an increasing conflict
between the government of Uhuru Kenyatta and the judiciary.

Uhuru Kenyatta and his major opposition are from two ethnic tribes
that have been at war in the past -- respectively the Kikuyu tribe and
the Luo tribe. The enmity between the two tribes has affected the
political sphere, and from there it's spread into a conflict between
the government and the judiciary.

The first major split occurred last year, when Kenya's Supreme Court
shocked pretty much everybody and sided with Odinga in claiming that
the August 8 presidential election was "invalid, null and void,"
forcing a new election. Kenyatta was furious, as he began calling the
judges "crooks," saying that there was problem with the court, and
promising to "fix it" after he was reelected.

Kenyatta did win the election, but has been cracking down on Odinga's
supporters, and arresting many of them. One of those supporters is
political activist Miguna Miguna. In February, the court ordered the
government to release him from jail, and the government ignored the
court order.

Now there's been a farcical new chapter in this drama. Earlier this
week, a court held several top Kenyan government officials in contempt
for refusing to release Miguna Miguna from custody. Instead of
releasing him, the government thugs allegedly drugged him and bundled
him onto a plane to Dubai. He wrote in social media:

<QUOTE>"I was dragged, assaulted, drugged and forcefully
flown to Dubai. I woke up in Dubai and the despots are here
insisting that I must travel on to London. ...

I woke up in Dubai. I’m sick. I need medical treatment. A Mr
Njihia is threatening me. I need urgent help here. I want to take
a flight only to Nairobi. Nowhere else!"<END QUOTE>

Video of security guards manhandling Miguna as they tried to force him
onto a plane the same day went viral, while a number of journalists
covering the story were allegedly assaulted.

The chief justice, David Maraga, criticized the government, saying:
"Disobeying court orders is inimical to the rule of law." The
interior minister, inspector general of police and head of immigration
have been convicted of contempt of court. Standard Media (Kenya) and BBC and Standard Media

Related Articles

• Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inauguration (04-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election (02-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Torture and murder of election official raise fears of violence in Kenya (01-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Severe drought in Kenya increases violence among herders, farmers and police (14-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war (02-Jan-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Abiy Ahmed,
Myanmar, Burma, Ashin Wirathu, Aung San Suu Kyi, Rohingyas,
Kenya, Nairobi, Miguna Miguna, David Maraga,
Uhuru Kenyatta, Kikuyu, Raila Odinga, Luo

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's Far East under growing threat from Chinese settlers and tourists
  
• Russians increasingly fear losing Lake Baikal to China - and to garbage
  
• Popular pressure grows in China to 'reclaim' Vladivostok (Haishenwai) from Russia
  

****
**** Russia's Far East under growing threat from Chinese settlers and tourists
****


Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia. Like regions in the South China Sea, India and Central Asia, the Chinese are claiming that it's their sovereign territory

In 2012, Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev issued a warning that
a huge influx of immigrants from China into Siberia and Far East
threatened Russia's control of the region and its rich resources. He
said that it was "important not to allow negative manifestations
... including the formation of enclaves made up of foreign citizens."

Medvedev even went so far as to invite the victims of Japan's 2011
earthquake to migrate there, at least partially over concern about
Chinese migrants. Medvedev discussed offering supplies of food and
medical equipment to the Japanese, and added, "In general we must now
think about the use, if necessary, of some of the employment potential
of our [Japanese] neighbors, especially in sparsely populated areas of
Siberia and the Far East."

Medvedev was right to be concerned. Russia's Far East suffered rapid
depopulation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. During the
1990s, there was enormous poverty and no support from the chaotic
Moscow government. As a result, population fell by as much as 50% in
the region, as millions migrated east, mostly to the European part of
Russia. According to Medvedev, "More than eight million foreign
citizens came to Russia in the first six months of 2012 alone."

And the flow has continued since then. In just one city, Khabarovsk,
about 20 miles from the Chinese border, more than 300 Chinese
companies have business operations, investing in almost every major
sector of the city’s economy such as trade, construction, lumber and
natural resources exploration, hiring thousands of Chinese
migrant workers.

It's estimated that 1.5 million Chinese illegal migrant workers
arrived in the region between June 2016 and June 2017, most of them
doing manual labor. Russia's Far East is home to only seven million
Russians (or just 1.3 per square kilometer), while there are ten times
as many people living across the border in the northeastern region of
China. Obviously, there's no way for Russian authorities to halt the
flow of migrant workers from China. Jamestown and South China Morning Post (8-Jul-2017) and ABC News (14-Jul-2015)


****
**** Russians increasingly fear losing Lake Baikal to China - and to garbage
****

The deepest lake in the world is Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia. Its
surface area is the size of Belgium. It draws tourists from all over
the world, but particularly from China.

Russians are worried that Lake Baikal is drowning in garbage -- mostly
from the Chinese migrants and tourists. According to Ivan Loginov,
head of the public organization New Energy, the problem of garbage
around Lake Baikal is a huge problem:

<QUOTE>"Literally next to any village or place of congestion
people form huge mountains of garbage. And the saddest thing is
that neither the volunteers nor the municipalities have enough
strength to fight garbage. Vicious circle. People come and litter,
but they do not have enough understanding that this garbage needs
to be cleaned. And if they even collect it for themselves, they
leave it on the bank, where it gradually accumulates.

The municipalities do not have enough money to fight
garbage. Moreover, the question arises: where should we take this
garbage? In Buryatia garbage is not processed, roughly speaking,
it is buried underground. And the situation is very deplorable.
... And garbage remains on the shores of Lake
Baikal."<END QUOTE>

The rising mountains of garbage are just one of the reasons that local
Russians are appalled by Chinese tourists. Chinese guides tell
Chinese tourists that Baikal is China’s northern sea, that their
ancestors used to live there, and that the territory only belongs to
Russia for the time being. These guides also reportedly encourage
Chinese visitors to buy property and businesses in order to make money
over the next decade. Many are doing so.

Chinese involvement in the region has inspired outrage among Russians
for several reasons. First is the massive influx of tourists who
often behave badly, use only Chinese facilities and so bring little
money to Russian firms, and are hated by the local population. Second,
Chinese citizens have been buying up land on Lake Baikal that Russians
are not allowed to purchase as well as acquiring various Russian
companies. All this has been leading to an influx of Chinese permanent
residents. And third, the entirely illegal Chinese logging operations
in the region are being protected by Russian criminal groups and
Russian officials allied with them.

Chinese tourists, businesses and migrants are taking control of the
region around Lake Baikal. This is not a trivial matter, and will
lead to war when the time is ripe. Hong Kong Economic Journal (20-Sep-2017) and NY Times (24-Jul-2016) and Eurasian Business Briefing and Regnum (Russia) and
(translation)

****
**** Popular pressure grows in China to 'reclaim' Vladivostok (Haishenwai) from Russia
****

The Chinese are increasingly claiming "indisputable sovereignty" over
many countries' regions, including India, several Central Asian
states, and of course the South China Sea, where the United Nations
Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague has ruled that all of China's activities are illegal.

International law means little to the Chinese, who say that their own
laws supersede international law, and give them the right to invade
and annex any region they choose, and back it up with their massive
and growing military, threatening to kill anyone who disagrees with
them.

Media reports indicate that Chinese people are asking this question,
especially in social media:

<QUOTE>"If China was able to take back Hong Kong from the
British on the grounds that the territory was ceded to Britain
under an unequal treaty concluded in the 1840s, then why didn’t it
reclaim Vladivostok as well, which was also ceded to Russia under
another unequal treaty signed in the 1860s?"<END QUOTE>

Vladivostok is the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet. It's the farthest
point east in Russia, and it's connected to Moscow by the
Trans-Siberian Railway that runs to and from Moscow in a week-long
trip.

Although the Chinese are now claiming Vladivostok as a historically
Chinese city, that's provably not true, as it was a city controlled by
Manchuria, not China. The Chinese call the city by its Manchurian
name, Haishenwai. After China was defeated by the British Opium wars
of the 1840s-50s, China was forced to cede Hong Kong to the British,
and Vladivostok to the Russians. China annexed Manchuria after World
War II, but Vladivostok remained in Russian (Soviet) hands.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin takes a great deal of pride in
Vladivostok and the Pacific Fleet. There is no possibility at all
that Vladivostok will be ceded to the Chinese without a full-scale
war, despite the demands of the Chinese social media.

As long-time readers have known for years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that the world is headed for a new Clash of Civilizations
world war, with the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.

I'm frequently asked how it's possible that Russia will be a US ally,
rather than a Chinese ally. The current alliance between Russia and
China is a "marriage of convenience" between the countries, because
they are both repeating Hitler's actions of annexing other countries'
regions, and then they support each other in the United Nations.

As we reported last year,
China
has placed nuclear missiles near the Amur River, which separates China
from Russia's Far East. The nominal purpose of these Chinese missiles
is to attack the US, but these and other missile systems can also
conveniently target Moscow and other Russian targets.

Historically, the Russian and Chinese people hate each other. In the
1200s, the Mongols under Genghis Khan conquered and dominated China,
in a generational crisis war that climaxed in 1206, forming the Mongol
Empire, the largest empire in history. In the next generational
crisis war, Genghis Khan's grandson, Kublai Khan, conquered all of
China, and created the Yuan Dynasty in 1271.

From there, the Mongol Empire attacked and conquered almost all the
Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. The Mongol Yoke was only thrown
off in September 8, 1380, in the seminal Battle of Kulikovo, a
generational crisis war where the Russians decisively defeated the
Mongols, and the Russian nation was born.

The Mongol Yoke still defines Russian-Chinese attitudes today. Even
as recently as the 1960s, China and the Soviet Union almost went to
war in the border region with Siberia and the Far East.

There's a certain ironic truth that comes through when you read
Russian history. The Russian people and the Chinese people hate each
other, but the Russian people like the American people, and they love
the European people, despite the rhetoric of politicians. In the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, when Russia is forced to
choose between China and the West, they will choose the West.
Russia Beyond the Headlines and Way To Russia

Related Articles

• China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America (27-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria (26-Sep-2014)
  
  
• Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue (21-Jun-2015)
  
  
• The 'New Normal': Russia and China annex other countries' territories with impunity (22-Mar-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Russia, Far East, Siberia, Lake Baikal,
Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin, Japan, Khabarovsk,
Ivan Loginov, Vladivostok, Haishenwai, Manchuria,
Hong Kong, South China Sea, Amur River,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague
Mongols, Genghis Khan, Kublai Khan, Yuan Dynasty,
Mongol Yoke, Battle of Kulikovo

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little more. Unsourced and poorly sourced articles that are semi-coherent, sources that don't even say what JohnX claims it said. This is Most notable with the lake Baikal article which didn't even mention China or Chinese. Not to mention that pollution in that lake has been ongoing since the soviet period, not because of chinese tourist, but because of large-scale industrial pollution. Not only that but the presence of Millions of Chinese would have showed up on the census as well.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-31-2018, 12:23 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little
> more. Unsourced and poorly sourced articles that are
> semi-coherent, sources that don't even say what JohnX claims it
> said. This is Most notable with the lake Baikal article which
> didn't even mention China or Chinese. Not to mention that
> pollution in that lake has been ongoing since the soviet period,
> not because of. Not only that but the presence of Millions of
> Chinese would have showed up on the census as well.

More gibberish from ch86, the poster child for Gen-X incompetence
and stupidity.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(03-31-2018, 09:32 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-31-2018, 12:23 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little
>   more. Unsourced and poorly sourced articles that are
>   semi-coherent, sources that don't even say what JohnX claims it
>   said. This is Most notable with the lake Baikal article which
>   didn't even mention China or Chinese. Not to mention that
>   pollution in that lake has been ongoing since the soviet period,
>   not because of. Not only that but the presence of Millions of
>   Chinese would have showed up on the census as well.

More gibberish from ch86, the poster child for Gen-X incompetence
and stupidity.

Yet Another Post From JohnX the Poster-Child of boomer Arrogance, Incompetence and Selfishness.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Here is your own Articles on Lake Baikal, note that there is not a single mention of China or Chinese in the article.

https://regnum.ru/news/society/2310771.html

(Translation)
https://translate.google.com/translate?d...6,15700201

I didn't re-post the articles on general Chinese Migration, but even those articles mention that only 500,000 of the migrants are still in Russia, and that Chinese tend to visit the area around Vladivostok, not the lake Baikai/Irkutsk region.

[John J. Xenakis]

Quote:Were this a single isolated development, it might not be that
significant. But it comes on top of others that have sparked headlines
like “The Siberians Feel They are Losing Baikal to China” ([3]Regnum,
February 27), “Baikal: Appropriated by Bureaucrats and Seized by
China” ([4]Regnum, February 13), and “Russian Only for the Time Being:
China Takes Control of Baikal” ([5]Regnum, January 15). Thus, this
recent agricultural subsidies scandal could prove to be the straw that
broke the camel’s back. Notably, it links Russians’ anger at their own
government—as exemplified this week in the furious reaction to
official responses to the Kemerovo mall fire disaster (Meduza.io,
[6]March 26, [7]27; The Moscow Times, [8]March 27, [9]28)—with public
concern about what those same officials are allowing or even
encouraging China to do on Russian territory.

Chinese involvement in the Transbaikal and adjoining regions is most
obvious and has inspired most outrage in three inter-related areas.
First is the massive influx of tourists who often behave badly, use
only Chinese facilities and so bring little money to Russian firms,
and are hated by the local population. Second, Chinese citizens have
been buying up land on Lake Baikal that Russians are not allowed to
purchase as well as acquiring various Russian companies. All this has
been leading to an influx of Chinese permanent residents. And third,
the entirely illegal Chinese logging operations in the region are
being protected by Russian criminal groups and Russian officials
allied with them.

Chinese tourism is what the region’s Russians see most often and are
most appalled by. According to a poll conducted jointly by the Lake
Baikal Foundation and the NAFI Analysis Center, 79 percent of Russians
are concerned about the growth in the number of tourists, workers and
businessmen from China; 63 percent say that the Chinese violate
Russian environmental protections and other laws more often than
tourists from elsewhere; and 59 percent want the government to impose
strict limits on this influx of Chinese into their areas ([10]Regnum,
February 27). They believe that Moscow has failed to keep its promises
to protect Lake Baikal and their rights in its pursuit of money from
the Chinese (Regnum, [11]June 15, 2017; [12]June 16, 2017;
[13]February 13, 2018; [14]February 16, 2018).

The behavior of the Chinese tourists helps to explain why Russians
feel this way. According to local people, Chinese guides tell Chinese
tourists that “Baikal is China’s northern sea, that their ancestors
used to live there, and that the territory only belongs to Russia for
the time being. These guides also reportedly encourage Chinese
visitors to buy property and businesses in order to make money over
the next decade. Many are doing so, and that constitutes the second
challenge residents of the Transbaikal and other Russian regions in
the area see ([15]Babr24.com, January 12; Regnum, [16]December 12,
2017, [17]January 15, 2018).

In the words of one local, there are now so many Chinese businesses
that the “Chinese are everywhere. There are thousands of them. Thank
goodness there are not millions.” They violate laws with impunity,
locals allege; and they flaunt their power: One company even put up a
banner declaring that Baikal belonged to the Heavenly Kingdom 200
Years Ago.” Other local people are complaining that China is not
sending scholars but “only poorly raised tourists, purchasers of raw
materials, renters of enormous territories and purchasers” of
everything they can get their hands on ([18]Irk.ru, December 22,
2017).

https://jamestown.org/program/china-expa...rs-paying/

[Warren Dew]

(03-31-2018, 12:23 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little more. Unsourced and poorly sourced articles that are semi-coherent, sources that don't even say what JohnX claims it said. This is Most notable with the lake Baikal article which didn't even mention China or Chinese. Not to mention that pollution in that lake has been ongoing since the soviet period, not because of chinese tourist, but because of large-scale industrial pollution. Not only that but the presence of Millions of Chinese would have showed up on the census as well.

Unfortunately this is par for the course then John writes about China.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-31-2018, 06:00 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-31-2018, 12:23 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little more. Unsourced and poorly sourced articles that are semi-coherent, sources that don't even say what JohnX claims it said. This is Most notable with the lake Baikal article which didn't even mention China or Chinese. Not to mention that pollution in that lake has been ongoing since the soviet period, not because of chinese tourist, but because of large-scale industrial pollution. Not only that but the presence of Millions of Chinese would have showed up on the census as well.

Unfortunately this is par for the course then John writes about China.

Moron.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Apr-18 World View -- Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence with Israel's army

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence with Israel's army
  
• Fears grow of resumption of 2014 Gaza war
  

****
**** Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence with Israel's army
****


Palestinians shout during clashes with Israel troops on Friday (Reuters)

Thousands of Palestinians on Friday commemorated "Land Day" by
marching near Gaza's border fence with Israel, apparently threatening
to break through the fence into Israel. In the resulting
confrontation with Israel's army, in which tear gas was first used to
stop the march and then live gunfire, 16 Palestinians were killed. In
addition, 1,400 Palestinians were also wounded on Friday, according to
Gaza officials, with 758 wounded by live fire and the remainder hurt
by rubber bullets and tear gas inhalation. No casualties were
reported among Israelis.

The original Land Day occurred on March 30, 1976, after Israel's
government announced plans to build new Jewish settlements. This
triggered Palestinian marches and demonstrations, and in the ensuing
confrontation with Israel's army, six unarmed Palestinians were
killed, and dozens injured. The original Land Day is a generational
Awakening era climax for the Palestinians, and is consider a highly
symbolic day, as the day when a new generation of Palestinian youth
first united to oppose Israel.

Hamas, the government authority of Gaza, and considered a terrorist
organization by the US and the EU, is calling the demonstration the
"Great March for Return," meaning that it's accompanied by demands for
"Right of Return," the demand that Palestinians be permitted to return
to the land that they lost in the Arab-Jewish war in 1948.

The violence continued on Saturday, when Palestinian youths hurled
stones at Israeli troops, drawing gunfire that wounded 70 people.
Reuters and Middle East Eye and AP

****
**** Fears grow of resumption of 2014 Gaza war
****

Hamas has announced plans to continue the demonstrations for six
weeks, until May 14, which is "Naqba Day" or "Catastrophe Day,"
commemorating the founding, in 1948, of the state of Israel. In
addition, May 14 is the day announced by the Trump administration when
the official US embassy to Israel will move to Jerusalem from Tel
Aviv.

Although there was a slight lessening of tensions on Saturday, there
are concerns that tensions will grow during the six week period. On
Saturday, Israel's military spokesman Brigadier General Ronen Manelis
said that the Palestinian events were "an organized terrorist
activity" by Hamas:

<QUOTE>"If it continues, we shall have no choice but to
respond inside the Gaza Strip against terrorist targets which we
understand to be behind these events."<END QUOTE>

However, Palestinian leaders are calling for revenge, and it's feared
that this could lead to a resumption of the 2014 Gaza War.

The 67 day 2014 Gaza war was a disaster for Hamas. When the war
began, Hamas's popularity surged to its highest levels, which is
similar to what happens to any society when a war begins, but before
there are setbacks. Militarily, the war was a disastrous defeat for
Hamas, since Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system blocked almost
every Hamas missile entering Israel, while Hamas could put up almost
no resistance to the Israeli warplanes bombing Gaza. Hamas had to
agree to a ceasefire that was, effectively, a return to the status
quo ante from before the war, something that it had promised it
wouldn't do. At the end of the war, Gaza was in ruins, and the Gaza
Palestinians were worse off than when the war was started.

Hamas is not known to have any new technology that would defeat
Israel's Iron Dome system and, without that, they would be unlikely to
wish to begin another war, and risk humiliation again. However, Iran
and Hezbollah are also preparing for war with Israel, and it seems
likely that Hamas would delay a war resumption until it could be
coordinated with those two entities. BBC and
Asharq Al Awsat and Al Jazeera and AFP

Related Articles

• US embassy to Jerusalem will commemorate Israel's founding -- Palestinian 'Naqba Day' (24-Feb-2018)
  
  
• The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides (31-Jul-2014)
  
  
• Warring Palestinian factions announce a reconciliation agreement (24-Apr-2014)
  
  
• Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announce unity agreement (13-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel (12-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Land Day, Palestinians, Israel,
Naqba Day, Catastrophe Day, Ronen Manelis

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Apr-18 World View -- Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths
  
• Uprising in Kashmir continues to grow into war between India and Pakistan
  

****
**** Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths
****


Kashmiri villagers during a funeral at Shopian, South Kashmir, during the anti-Indian protests (Hindustan Times)

Sunday was one of the bloodiest days in Indian-controlled Kashmir in
recent months, after a new generation of separatist Kashmiri youths
led massive anti-India protests and violence in several parts of
Indian-controlled Kashmir. Thousands of Kashmiris were in the streets
chanting anti-India slogans and demanding an end to Indian rule over
Kashmir. Some 20 people were killed, including 3 soldiers and 17
Kashmiris, with dozens more injured.

A spokesman for Hurriyat, a Kashmiri separatist organization,
is calling for continued protests in the days to come:

<QUOTE>"The joint resistance leadership calls for a shutdown
tomorrow against the killings and atrocities on people in south
Kashmir. Hundreds have been injured in pellet and bullet
firing."<END QUOTE>

Separatists are calling for strikes on Monday and Tuesday, and
authorities have ordered all schools to be shut.

The protests and clashes were triggered by a series of
counter-insurgency operations, based on tips to police about where
militant separatists may be hiding. Many civilians living in Kashmir
support these militants and demand that Indian-governed Kashmir be
allowed to merge Pakistan-governed Kashmir, and become part of
Pakistan.

In June 2017, India announced 'Operation All-Out,'
in which thousands of security forces were
involved in a massive house-to-house sweep to "deliver a lethal blow
to terrorism." Operation All-Out went on for months and was
responsible for killing over 200 militants, according to Indian
authorities. The violence has already escalated in 2018, with 51
alleged militants already killed so far this year. Geo TV (Pakistan) and AFP and Hindustan Times and AP

****
**** Uprising in Kashmir continues to grow into war between India and Pakistan
****

As I've described several times in the past, from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, the growing violence in Kashmir is following a
fairly standard historical template that always ends in a major war.
I've written in the past to distinguish between "organic" genocides
that come from the people, such as the 1994 Rwanda genocide, versus
"government-led" genocides, such as occurring today in Syria and South
Sudan.

Although there's little doubt that Pakistan-based groups are inciting
violence in Kashmir, that isn't enough to start a generational war
unless the mood of the population is that such a war is necessary.
What we're seeing in Kashmir is an "organic" war that's leading
unstoppably to a generational crisis war.

As I described in the past,
India's
last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, and the
1947 Partition war.

The 1857 rebellion is also called India's First War of Independence
from the British colonial power. What started out as protests related
to the Hindu veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody
generational crisis war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000
Indian civilians.

India remained a British colony, and there was little or no violence
for decades, as always happens after a generational crisis war, since
the traumatized survivors do not wish anything so horrible to happen
again. However, as younger generations with no personal memory of the
war rise to power, conflicts begin again.

In the 1910s, Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, launched a
"non-cooperation movement" against the British, involving civil
disobedience. The generational Awakening era climax occurred on April
10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre),
when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest
meeting, killing hundreds. That event convinced both the British and
the Indians that Britain should completely give up control of India.

By 1946, there was a debate centered on two choices: Should there be a
single Indian state, with separate regions under the control of
Muslims and Hindus, or should there be a two-state solution, a Muslim
state living side-by-side in peace with a Hindu state? The argument
that won the day was that Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't
eat cows, and so they can't live together. Finally, British, Muslim
and Hindu officials all agreed that there had to be two separate
states, India and Pakistan. In particular, the 1857 rebellion was
still in everyone's mind, and it was hoped that the two-state solution
would lead to peace.

There's an old saying that "History doesn't repeat itself, but it
rhymes." In this case, the massive violence of the 1857 rebellion was
repeated, but not between Indians and British. Instead, it was
between Hindus and Muslims, and with the same ferocity.

In 1947, the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into two countries,
India and Pakistan, and no sooner did that happen then there was a
massive new generational crisis war. But with the British colonists
gone, this war pitted the Hindus against Muslims, in one of the
bloodiest wars of the 20th century.

Once again, there was relative peace following the war, but once
again, younger generations have been rising, and have no fear of a new
war. The accusation today that Pakistan-based groups are using social
media to incite violence is undoubtedly true, but India media are no
better.

Since the 1947 Partition war, there have been three non-crisis wars
fought between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Those wars fizzled,
but now in a general Crisis era, all the participants -- Pakistanis,
Kashmiris and Indians -- are becoming increasingly nationalistic and
xenophobic. As the protests and violence grow, this would spiral into
a much larger war, just as the initial protests did in 1857 and 1947,
and turn into a war between Pakistan and India, both nuclear powers.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. Benar News and Greater Kashmir

Related Articles

• India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war (24-Jun-2017)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  
  
• China threatens military intervention in Kashmir on the side of Pakistan (12-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep (06-May-2017)
  
  
• Uprising in Kashmir growing into major regional war between India and Pakistan (01-Apr-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Hurriyat,
Operation All-Out, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition War, Mahatma Gandhi,
Jalianvala Bagh Massacre, Amritsar Massacre

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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Apr-18 World View -- Israel's government in turmoil over failure to deport African migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel's government in turmoil over failure to deport African migrants
  
• Netanyahu: We fell into a 'trap' with failed deportation plan
  

****
**** Israel's government in turmoil over failure to deport African migrants
****


Asylum seekers in Tel Aviv, Israel, protest against deportation on 24-Feb (AP)

Israel's government is in turmoil after a major policy for dealing
with African migrants collapsed within a few hours.

On Monday morning, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
announced a major new policy for dealing with 16,250 of what it
considers to be illegal immigrants from African nations, mostly
Eritrea and Sudan.

The policy was reached as a deal with the UN Human Rights Council
(UNHCR) which is the agency that handles issues with refugees and
migrants. Under the deal between Israel and UNHCR, 16,250 African
migrants under threat of being either jailed or deported to another
African country, would instead be absorbed and resettled into a
Western country. The deal also specifies that another 16,250
similarly threated migrants would be permitted to remain in Israel as
"temporary residents." According to UNHCR, Israel is home to about
40,000 asylum seekers including 27,500 from Eritrea and 7,800 from
Sudan. The deal left 7,000 unaccounted for.

Netanyahu originally said that the agreement was a "landmark
achievement," allowing 16,250 migrants to be taken to "developed
countries like Canada, or Germany and Italy."

Human rights organizations were pleased with the deal, since migrants
would be resettled in Western countries. However, other officials
objected to the fact that 16,250 migrants would be resettled in
Israel. A city councilman in Tel Aviv, where many of the migrants
would be resettled, called the agreement a "disaster that will
reverberate for generations and cause irreversible damage to the
country."

A Canadian minister said that Canada was already in contact with UNHCR
and Israel about accepting more refugees. However, Italy quickly
issued a statement saying that they were not a part of this agreement,
and had not even been consulted. Germany issued a similar statement.
The Prime Minister’s Office then clarified that Netanyahu had just
named those countries as examples of Western countries.

By late Monday evening, Netanyahu wrote on Facebook that he was
suspending implementation of the agreement for the time being.
YNet News and Canadian TV and BBC and
Haaretz


****
**** Netanyahu: We fell into a 'trap' with failed deportation plan
****

The previous deportation plan was announced in January. Each migrant
would be given a choice to be jailed, or to receive a check for $3,500
and a plane ticket to another country. Migrants received the
following letter in January:

<QUOTE>"We would like to inform you that the state of Israel
has signed agreements allowing you to leave Israel for a safe
third country that will absorb you and give you a residency visa
that will allow you to work in that country, and promises not to
remove you to your country of origin."<END QUOTE>

The "third safe countries" were not named, but they were known to be
Rwanda and Uganda. The deadline to leave or be jailed was to be April
1.

According to a poll in late January, 66% of Jewish Israelis, and half
of Arab Israelis, who make up 20% of Israel's population, favored the
deportation plan. However, the plan received a huge backlash from
human rights organizations, both internationally and within Israel.

Due to international pressure, both Rwanda and Uganda announced that
they wouldn't take part in the deportation plan. On Monday, Netanyahu
explained in a Facebook post why the whole plan had to be canceled:

<QUOTE>"In the past two years I have been working with Rwanda
so that it will serve as a third country' that absorbs
infiltrators who will be deported without their consent. This is
the only legal way for us to deport infiltrators without their
consent, after the rest of our moves have been legally
disqualified. Rwanda agreed to this and began the deportation
operation.

In recent weeks, under tremendous pressure on Rwanda by the New
Israel Fund and elements in the European Union, Rwanda withdrew
from the agreement and has refused to absorb infiltrators from
Israel who are forcibly removed.

From the moment that it became clear in the last few weeks that
the third country as an option does not exist, we in effect
entered a trap that meant all of them would stay."<END QUOTE>

Falling into this "trap" represented a danger to Israel, according to
education minister Naftali Bennett:

<QUOTE>"[G]ranting legal status to 16,000 infiltrators will
turn Israel into a paradise for infiltrators and is a surrender to
the false campaign spread in the media in recent months.

The original outline was moral and just, and we must follow it,
alone. Refugees from dangerous places will be absorbed in Israel,
work migrants will be sent back. In the new plan, work migrants
who didn’t even apply to be refugees will be absorbed. By signing
this agreement, we are sending a dangerous message to the whole
world: Whoever succeeds in infiltrating Israel illegally will get
a prize of legal residence here or a Western
country."<END QUOTE>

He added that that the government must "proceed to a new roadmap will
remove the illegal infiltrators from Israel." Reuters (3-Jan) and The Atlantic (30-Jan) and Al Jazeera (4-Feb) and Jerusalem Post

Related Articles:

• Tens of thousands of migrants to Israel protest in Tel Aviv (07-Jan-2014)
  
  
• Israel to expel tens of thousands of illegal African immigrants (12-Dec-2011)
  
  
• Israel prepares to absorb refugees from Syria (11-Jan-2012)
  
  
• Russian migrants to Israel form closed ultra-nationalist community (29-Apr-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Eritrea, Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, UN Human Rights Council, UNHCR,
Canada, Italy, Germany, Naftali Bennett

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Apr-18 World View -- Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey
  
• Mainstream media emphasize the love-fest between Turkey and Russia
  

****
**** Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey
****


Russia's advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system (Tass)

In the course of a joint press conference by Turkey's president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin, held in Turkey's
capital city Ankara on Tuesday, Erdogan and Putin announced that the
previously scheduled delivery of Russia's advanced S-400 anti-aircraft
missiles at the end of 2019 would be moved up.

At the press conference, Putin said:

<QUOTE>"We have decided with President Erdogan in our meeting
to speed up the delivery of the S-400 systems. Our Turkish
colleagues made a request in the meetings. We will accelerate the
process.

This is an issue of commerce. Companies are working on
it."<END QUOTE>

According to Turkish and Russian media, the S-400 is Russia's most
advanced long-range anti-aircraft missile system with a capacity of
carrying three types of missiles capable of destroying targets
including aircraft, and ballistic and cruise missiles. The system can
track and engage up to 300 targets at a time and has an altitude
ceiling of 27 kilometers (17 miles). In addition, the system’s radars
detect aerial targets at a distance of up to 600 kilometers (373
miles).

So there are some unanswered questions about this deal:

What is the intended target of these S-400 missiles? Is Erdogan
planning to target American warplanes? Israeli warplanes? Iranian
warplanes? Syrian warplanes? Armenian warplanes? Nato warplanes?

And what's the rush? Which of these potential targets has become so
imminently dangerous that Erdogan needs to accelerate the delivery of
the missiles?

In an interview before the press conference, Putin said:

<QUOTE>"A priority task in the sphere of military technical
cooperation is the implementation of the contract for supplies of
S-400 Triumf missile systems to Turkey.

We hope that the sectoral intergovernmental commission will look
into the prospects for further supplies of Russian-made military
hardware to Turkey at its next meeting."<END QUOTE>

So the obvious question is: Why is Putin so anxious to sell these
systems to Turkey?

According to other reports, Russia is delivering the same S-400
systems to China. Whom does Putin think that Turkey and China
will be using these anti-aircraft missiles against?

Is Putin really so certain that Turkey and China won't use the S-400
missiles against Russia? Or maybe something deeper is going on --
like a secret way for Russia to disable these missiles remotely?

Nato officials are strongly opposed to this deal between Turkey
and Russia, because Turkey is member of Nato, and so it's important
that all weapons systems of all Nato countries be interoperable
with each other. However, Russia's S-400 system is not interoperable
with other Nato weapons systems, so deploying S-400 systems
represents a sharp rejection by Turkey of its relationship with Nato.

This also provides one more reason why Putin is anxious to deliver
S-400 systems to Turkey as quickly as possible -- to make sure that
Turkey cannot militarily cooperate with Nato. Anadolu (Ankara) and Tass (Moscow) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Tass

****
**** Mainstream media emphasize the love-fest between Turkey and Russia
****

One media story after another on Tuesday described how Vladimir Putin
and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are developing a close personal friendship
that is bring Russia and Turkey closer together, shutting the
U.S. out. For example:

<QUOTE>"Ties between Russia and Turkey are growing closer
than ever, as Russia runs into widespread diplomatic fallout from
the poisoned spy scandal and Turkey's relations with its Western
allies worsens over human rights issues and its military
operations against Kurdish militia in Syria."<END QUOTE>

The "deepening friendship" between Putin and Erdogan can only be
described as bizarre. This is a good time to remind readers that from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that the behavior of two
nations towards each other depends not on the attitudes of the
politicians, but on the attitudes of the two populations. And
historically, the people of Russia and the people of Turkey hate each
other.

During the last millennium, one of the most bloody and vicious
relationships in the world was the relationship between the people who
have become today's Turks and Russians. As I described in November
2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane
and brought the two countries close to military conflict,
the Crimean Peninsula was the site of several generational
crisis wars between the two.

The Tatars were a tribe of Mongols who, under the leadership of
Genghis Kahn, defeated China, then Russia, where they occupied Crimea.
In 1571, the Crimean Tatars attacked and sacked Moscow. In 1783, Russia
under Catherine the Great annexed Crimea in a war in which the
Ottomans (Turkey) were defeated. The Crimean War (1853-55) was a
disaster for both the Russians and the Turks, though more so for the
Russians, who lost Crimea and other territories on the Black Sea.
World War I saw the destruction of Russia's Tsarist empire and
Turkey's Ottoman Empire.

So it's particularly significant today that Russia has invaded
and annexed Crimea, and has treated the current Tatar population
brutally. The Tatars are historically close to the Turks,
and although we don't read much about this in the media, the
Russian treatment of Tatars must infuriate many Turks.

So it's quite a reasonable question to ask what's going on here,
when these two politicians, Putin and Erdogan, are behaving in
ways that must upset many of the people they represent.

In the past I've described the reasons why China and Russia, whose
populations also respectively hate each other, are allying -- because
both countries are supporting each other in annexing other countries'
territories, as Hitler did prior to World War II. Russia and China
need each other because they need each other's support, in the sense
of "honor among thieves."

Putin and Erdogan have also reached the conclusion that Russia
and Turkey need each other, for several reasons:

• Turkey's military operation in Afrin, Syria, is only
  possible because Russia is permitting it, as Russia controls
  the airspace.
  
  
• Turkey has given its blessing for Russian bases in Syria, and is
  no longer insisting that the hated Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
  must step down.
  
  
• Turkey has refused to go along with the accusations by the UK, the
  EU and the United States that Russia is responsible for the recent
  nerve gas poisoning of a former Russia agent on British soil.
  
  
• Turkey is a transit country for Russian natural gas shipments to
  Europe.

In addition, on Tuesday, Putin and Erdogan broke ground on a $20
billion Russian-made nuclear power plant being built on Turkey's
Mediterranean coast at Akkuyu. The project was already launched once
before in February 2015, but was canceled after Turkey shot down the
Russian warplane. Putin said on Tuesday, "This scale of the project
is difficult to exaggerate. This marks a new stage in the development
of Turkey's economy."

This "marriage of convenience" between Putin and Erdogan cannot last,
in view of the centuries of bitter, bloody conflict between the two
countries. At some point, Russia will be forced to choose between the
West versus China and Turkey, and they will choose the West.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. AP and
Daily Mail and AFP and RFE/RL

Related Articles

• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Tense Turkey-EU summit in Bulgaria once again ends in failure (28-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Turkey achieves victory in Afrin, Syria, but Kurds threaten guerilla war (20-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Turkey, Russia and Syria infuriated by the Border Security Force announcement (16-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, S-400 anti-aircraft system,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Afrin,
Crimea, Crimean Tatars, Catherine the Great, Crimean War,
Ottoman Empire, Akkuyu

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's tariff retaliation plan would devastate China's economy
  
• China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930
  

****
**** China's tariff retaliation plan would devastate China's economy
****


A Chinese farmer gathering bundles of wheat (Getty)

The Trump administration imposed tariffs earlier this week on some
1,300 products in a broad range of sectors, from electronics
components to medical devices, and from false teeth to detergent
chemicals.

When China retaliated on Wednesday, its list contained only 106 items,
mostly agricultural products. American soybeans as the number 1
target, followed by corn products, two types of cotton exports, wheat
and meat. The list also includes frozen orange juice and whiskey,
tobacco and cars. As a number of analysts have pointed out, while the
Trump administration is targeting strategic products, China's
reciprocal tariffs are not strategic but political, specifically
targeting products that are developed in states where Trump is
politically popular, in the hope of applying political pressure to
Trump to drop the tariffs altogether.

What seems clear from both sets of items is that these mutual tariffs
may harm small segments of America's economy, they will devastate
China's entire economy, mainly because of China's enormous and
growing food security problem.

China has only 7% of the world's farmlands, but has to feed 20% of the
world's population. In order to improve yields, China's farmers have
been using massive amounts of chemical fertilizers. The increasing
use of these fertilizers has followed the economy Law of Diminishing
Returns, in that additional use of fertilizers has been less and less
effective and even counterproductive, as some farmland is being
poisoned with overfertilization.

Exacerbating the shortage of farmland is the shortage of water.
China's available water supply per person is only 25% of the
average available globally. In parts of China, groundwater is
being depleted for agriculture. The growing and excessive use
of fertilizer and groundwater indicate that China's domestic
ability to feed its growing population is lessening.

That means that China has to import enormous amounts of food from
other countries. Many people were surprised to see soybeans at the
top of China's tariff list, because importing massive amounts of
soybeans is essential to China's economy. Of all the globally traded
soybeans in the world, China imports 60% of them, including $12
billion worth of American soybeans.

If China stopped buying American soybeans, it would be almost
impossible to replace them from another source. If China did find
another source, perhaps in Brazil or Argentina, then these countries
would raise their own soybean prices -- and, indeed, soybean futures
prices in Brazil have already been increasing. But then the people
who could no longer get their soybeans from Brazil or Argentina would
turn to America's soybeans.

On the other hand, if China kept purchasing American soybeans but
imposed its threatened 25% tariff, then the cost of the soybeans would
be prohibitive for many Chinese, and would lead to price inflation.
And price inflation would lead to social instability. China's history
is filled with huge, massive internal rebellions (civil wars), the
most recent of which were the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the
Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49).
China is overdue for a new massive civil war, and a soybean tariff
could be the trigger. Xinhua
and Reuters and Nature and
Zero Hedge

****
**** China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930
****

Chinese officials keep saying that they don't want a trade war, but
they're not afraid of a trade war. Well, the first half of that
statement is true, anyway, but the second half is definitely not true.
America's economy would be slightly hurt, but China's economy would be
devastated.

When America passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930,
during the Great Depression, it was particularly devastating
to Japan, as it cut off Japan's exports to America of silk,
its greatest cash crop.

I've written many times in the past that the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff
Act could be considered the beginning of World War II, so I was
interested in a speech given by Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe in
2015, commemorating the 70th anniversary of the end of WW II, where he
explained how Japan was affected by a "major blow" -- the Smoot-Hawley
act -- and how it led to Japan's invasion of Manchuria a year later:

<QUOTE>"[After World War I] Japan kept steps with other
nations. However, with the Great Depression setting in and the
Western countries launching economic blocs by involving colonial
economies, Japan’s economy suffered a major blow
[Smoot-Hawley]. In such circumstances, Japan’s sense of isolation
deepened and it attempted to overcome its diplomatic and economic
deadlock through the use of force. Its domestic political system
could not serve as a brake to stop such attempts. In this way,
Japan lost sight of the overall trends in the world.

With the Manchurian Incident, followed by the withdrawal from the
League of Nations, Japan gradually transformed itself into a
challenger to the new international order that the international
community sought to establish after tremendous sacrifices. Japan
took the wrong course and advanced along the road to war.

And, seventy years ago, Japan was defeated."<END QUOTE>

The Smoot-Hawley act devastated Japan's silk industry, and its entire
economy, causing it to take desperate measures a year later, invading
Manchuria. Later, America and the League of Nations imposed a
punitive oil embargo on Japan in 1941, and just a few months later,
Japanese warplanes bombed Pearl Harbor.

It's quite possible that we're on a similar path with China today.
China's economy is already in dire straits, with huge debt bubbles
that could burst at any time, and anything resembling a trade war
could lead to social instability, which would cause China to take
desperate measures, such as invading India, Japan, Vietnam or the
Philippines.

One could argue that China is a victim. They were victimized by
Americans and the Europeans, who made it too easy for the Chinese to
cheat on trade with illegal tariffs and to steal American's
intellectual property, with the result that China became addicted to
the drugs of illegal tariffs and stealing intellectual property. Now
those drugs are being taken away, and China is at risk of showing the
signs of drug withdrawal which, in this case, means launching a world
war.

China is on a very dangerous path -- to itself and to the world.
China's illegal tariffs and stealing intellectual property will not be
allowed to continue. It's up to China to fix this problem, but we
know that the Chinese people are so nationalistic and so xenophobic
that they will not.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. Cato Institute

Related Articles

• Japan's Shinzo Abe blames WW II on the Smoot-Hawley Tariff act (15-Aug-2015)
  
  
• How China would lose a war with the United States (22-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Border Adjustment Tax versus the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Law (25-Feb-2017)
  
  
• The bubble that broke the world (09-Oct-2007)
  
• Explanation of Price/Earnings ratio and Stock Valuations (28-Aug-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Brazil, Argentina,
White Lotus Rebellion, Taiping Rebellion, Mao's Communist Revolution,
Japan, Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, Shinzo Abe,
Manchuria, Manchurian Incident, League of Nations

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Tim Randal Walker]

(04-04-2018, 09:20 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930

If China chooses to invade its neighbors, how will Japan respond?  At a minimum, I can imagine the Japanese trying to dominate the island countries of east Asia, excluding the Chinese.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-04-2018, 09:20 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > *** 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's
> experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930

(04-05-2018, 12:15 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > If China chooses to invade its neighbors, how will Japan respond?
> At a minimum, I can imagine the Japanese trying to dominate the
> island countries of east Asia, excluding the Chinese.

Japan has been preparing for war with China for years.
They would try to stay out of it as long as possible, but
sooner or later (and probably sooner) they would be involved
in any war that China started.

There's an interesting footnote to that question. Japan has a
"pacifist" constitution, with the Article 9 self-defense clause, which
is a "renunciation of war," forbidding any military action except for
"self-defense" on Japanese soil. In 2015, Abe was able to get
parliament to reinterpret the self-defense clause to mean "collective
self-defense," which means that military action would be permitted
anywhere in the world when an ally (such as the United States) is
attacked.

So if China attacks the United States, or any Japanese ally, then
Japan can come to the defense of the ally, despite the "pacifist
constitution."


** 23-Oct-17 World View -- Big election win for Japan's Shinzo Abe may mean end of pacifism
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e171023

** 28-Dec-15 World View -- Japan says that armed Chinese ships infiltrate its territorial waters
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151228

** 5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140505

[Cynic Hero '86]

What would Japan do, if the US decides to "stay out of it"? They would have to build up an actual military force to defend itself in that case?