Generational Dynamics World View

[Warren Dew]

(04-25-2018, 10:27 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(04-25-2018, 10:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(04-25-2018, 10:04 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I think you meant "generational gap" rather than "gender gap"?  Also, Woodstock must have been in 1971 not 1991?

Thanks for the corrections.

 Guys, try 1969.

Hey, I was a square, so I have an excuse.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(04-14-2018, 12:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-14-2018, 11:09 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

CH86 Wrote:>   More globalist tyranny, Assad Hasn't attacked The US, Europe or
>   Israel. Boomers refuse to acknowledge the existence of
>   international borders. The Law is on Assad's side. Syria has it's
>   own laws, the rebels have renounced allegiance to the Syrian state
>   and therefore the state has no further obligation to rebel
>   populations.

(04-14-2018, 10:13 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Its obvious that Boomer Ideologues Like JohnX, Pbrower, and Eric
>   would only be satisfied if Assad is dead or in a prison cell,
>   what's with Boomers and their Irrational Hostility to any outcome
>   in Syria where Assad remains in power?  

Guest Wrote:>   So let me get this straight.  It is acceptable for Assad to commit
>   genocide because it is within Syrian borders and Syrian law
>   permits it. Did I get that right?

1. When someone commits crimes against humanity he offends the whole of humanity. India had no connection to Rwanda when it arrested and extradited Frouald Karamira when it found him in Mumbai, This man, one of the loudest proponents of mass murder in the Rwandan genocide, advocated it over state-controlled Radio of a Thousand Hills. The Indian government knew what would happen to him; he would be executed. I am anti-communist because of the Commie body count in practically every Red regime. This is not globalism. I find the Cambodian horror under Pol Pot an affront to mu values in the same sense that the Holocaust is. Uf you think this simply 'national pride', then I recognize that Americans participated in horrors against American First Peoples and in the Atlantic slave trade.

There is no excuse. I probably am related to Holocaust perpetrators because of much of my ancestry being German. I denounce those relatives should I find them  (and I have no desire to seek them).

If it takes some 'globalist tyranny' to suppress war crimes, then let it happen!

The government must Respect the bounds placed on it by the constitution. The President and Congressional committees can't authorize military action without the consent of the American People. Boomers are systematically violating the citizenry's rights, regardless of whether you consider Assad a war criminal or Not. Military action is constitutionally legitimate only if a Mass Vote is held and then later a congressional vote and congressional authorization has taken place.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North-South Korea summit begins
  
• Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
  
• North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
  
• The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap
  

****
**** North-South Korea summit begins
****


South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands in front of Freedom House at Panmunjeom, Friday. (Korea Times)

It was magical. South Korea's president Moon Jae-in shook hands with
North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un, smiling sweetly at each
other. As if they were euphoric lovers, they held hands and walked
back and forth, crossing back and forth across the line dividing South
and North Korea, in order to prove to the world that all was peace and
light.

It's hard to guess what might be accomplished by this summit meeting,
since the real summit will be held in a few weeks between Donald Trump
and Kim Jong-un. Korea Times

****
**** Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
****

When North Korea performed its most recent nuclear weapon test on
September 3 of last year at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
seismologists outside North Korea detected an "earthquake" that
followed the test itself. Concerns were expressed that the earthquake
was actually a partially collapse of Mount Mantap, where the
Punggye-ri site is located, and that nuclear radiation had been
released. Unconfirmed reports later said that tunnel collapses had
killed hundreds of North Korean workers.

As we reported last year,
Chinese
geologists on September 20 were warning North Korean nuclear
scientists that further nuclear tests at Mount Mantap risked a nuclear
catastrophe, if the mountain collapsed in an explosion, releasing
large amounts of radiation that could contaminate large regions of
North Korea and northeast China for decades to come.

Now, two groups of Chinese researchers one from the University of
Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei, and the second from
the Jilin Earthquake Agency with the China Earthquake Administration
in Changchun, have both reached similar conclusions: That Mount Mantap
did in fact collapse after North Korea's last nuclear weapons test on
September 3 of last year.

Here's the summary from China's Earthquake Administration:

<QUOTE>"Seismology illuminates physical processes occurring
during underground explosions, not all yet fully understood. The
thus far strongest North Korean test of 3 September 2017 was
followed by a moderate seismic event (mL 4.1) after 8.5 min. ...

North Korea detonated its strongest underground nuclear test in
September 2017. It attracted the public interest worldwide not
only due to its significant magnitude (6.3 mb) but also because it
was followed 8.5 min later by a weaker event. Was the delayed
shock a secondary explosion, an earthquake provoked by the shot,
or something else? We answer these questions.... According to our
model, the explosion created a cavity and a damaged “chimney” of
rocks above it. The aftershock was neither a secondary explosion
nor a triggered tectonic earthquake. It occurred due to a process
comparable to a “mirror image” of the explosion, that is, a rock
collapse, or compaction, for the first time documented in North
Korea's test site."<END QUOTE>

The USTC study is awaiting publication, but a summary says, "The
occurrence of the collapse should deem the underground infrastructure
beneath mountain Mantap not be used for any future nuclear tests."

A Beijing-based analyst points out that another nuclear test at the
site would destabilize not only Mount Mantap but also Changbai
Mountain, the site of an active volcano at the China-Korea border.
South China Morning Post and AFP and Geophysical Research Letters

****
**** North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
****

As I wrote last weekend in "22-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site"
, North Korea
promised to end all nuclear and missile tests, and shut down
Punggye-ri, North Korea's nuclear test site. Shutting down the
nuclear test site was particularly hailed by the international media
that North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un was turning into a nice
guy, willing to compromise and all that.

Now the laughable news emerges that the nuclear test site is being
shut down because another test would risk a nuclear catastrophe,
according to Chinese scientists. As I wrote at the time, the North
Korean concession was no concession at all, and in fact was the West's
worst nightmare, since Kim would keep his existing stock of nuclear
weapons, would continue developing nuclear technology without open
testing, and would undoubtedly sell the nuclear technology to other
countries, including Iran.

Now it turns out that the North's whole farcical announcement was a
negotiating ploy to make use of the threat of further testing to lock
in concessions before the West found out.

The collapse of Mantap Mountain represents a collapse of a major part
of North Korea's negotiating position. With the approach of the
forthcoming meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, Trump has
said repeatedly that he was demanding denuclearization -- that the
North destroy all its nuclear weapons. Kim had the threat of
reopening the nuclear test site and performing more tests. But now
that threat is gone, and even though the North can do further nuclear
development, they can never be sure that their developments will work
unless they test them.

However, in another way the collapse of Mount Mantap strengthens North
Korea's negotiating position. They can claim that if their nuclear
test site is unusable, then the West should remove all sanctions,
since they're no longer needed. BBC

****
**** The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap
****

We live in a world where whether you believe 2+2 equals 4 or 5 depends
on politics. So it is with the question of whether the Punggye-ri
test site at Mount Mantap is still usable.

So let's look at China's motives. China would like to use the North
Korea threat as leverage to force all US military forces out of South
Korea. Also, China has for years been developing numerous nuclear
missile systems with no other purpose than to destroy American cities,
aircraft carries and military bases. China is preparing for a
pre-emptive attack on the United States, and they would be delighted
to have North Korean nuclear missiles pointed at the U.S., if only to
be a distraction when the war begins.

But on the other hand, Chinese media makes it clear that, whether the
Punggye-ri is theoretically still usable or not, China does not want
any further nuclear tests there. The risk is too great, and a serious
mishap could be a nuclear disaster that lasts for decades.

Those mixed motives would explain the suggestion that the
USTC conclusions are being watered down to avoid reaching a final
conclusion that the site is unusable. This ambiguity preserves
the North's negotiating position.

The web site 38North, which is run by North Korean defectors
in South Korea, is insisting that only a portion of the
Punggye-ri test site has been damaged, and they conclude:

<QUOTE>"In short, there is no basis to conclude that the
Punggye-ri nuclear test site is no longer viable for future
nuclear testing. There remain two portal areas located in more
pristine competent rock that can be used for future tests if
Pyongyang were to give the order. Whether that will stay an option
will depend on reaching verifiable agreements that build on
Pyongyang’s pledge to shut down the facility."<END QUOTE>

There is no real evidence provided for this conclusion, and the
motives of North Korean defectors are most likely to be that they
don't want the North to get away with anything. In particular, they
would want the sanctions to continue as long as possible. Washington Post and Global Times (China) and 38 North

Related Articles:

• North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site (22-Apr-2018)
  
  
• South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal (16-Feb-2007)
  
  
• China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
  
  
• US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
  
  
• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Mount Mantap, Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
University of Science and Technology of China, USTC,
Jilin Earthquake Agency, China Earthquake Administration,
Changbai Mountain

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(04-26-2018, 10:00 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North-South Korea summit begins
  
• Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
  
• North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
  
• The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap
  

****
**** North-South Korea summit begins
****


South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands in front of Freedom House at Panmunjeom, Friday. (Korea Times)

It was magical.  South Korea's president Moon Jae-in shook hands with
North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un, smiling sweetly at each
other.  As if they were euphoric lovers, they held hands and walked
back and forth, crossing back and forth across the line dividing South
and North Korea, in order to prove to the world that all was peace and
light.

It's hard to guess what might be accomplished by this summit meeting,
since the real summit will be held in a few weeks between Donald Trump
and Kim Jong-un.  Korea Times

****
**** Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
****

When North Korea performed its most recent nuclear weapon test on
September 3 of last year at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
seismologists outside North Korea detected an "earthquake" that
followed the test itself.  Concerns were expressed that the earthquake
was actually a partially collapse of Mount Mantap, where the
Punggye-ri site is located, and that nuclear radiation had been
released.  Unconfirmed reports later said that tunnel collapses had
killed hundreds of North Korean workers.

As we reported last year,
Chinese
geologists on September 20 were warning North Korean nuclear
scientists that further nuclear tests at Mount Mantap risked a nuclear
catastrophe, if the mountain collapsed in an explosion, releasing
large amounts of radiation that could contaminate large regions of
North Korea and northeast China for decades to come.

Now, two groups of Chinese researchers one from the University of
Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei, and the second from
the Jilin Earthquake Agency with the China Earthquake Administration
in Changchun, have both reached similar conclusions: That Mount Mantap
did in fact collapse after North Korea's last nuclear weapons test on
September 3 of last year.

Here's the summary from China's Earthquake Administration:

   <QUOTE>"Seismology illuminates physical processes occurring
   during underground explosions, not all yet fully understood. The
   thus far strongest North Korean test of 3 September 2017 was
   followed by a moderate seismic event (mL 4.1) after 8.5 min. ...

   North Korea detonated its strongest underground nuclear test in
   September 2017. It attracted the public interest worldwide not
   only due to its significant magnitude (6.3 mb) but also because it
   was followed 8.5 min later by a weaker event. Was the delayed
   shock a secondary explosion, an earthquake provoked by the shot,
   or something else? We answer these questions....  According to our
   model, the explosion created a cavity and a damaged “chimney” of
   rocks above it. The aftershock was neither a secondary explosion
   nor a triggered tectonic earthquake. It occurred due to a process
   comparable to a “mirror image” of the explosion, that is, a rock
   collapse, or compaction, for the first time documented in North
   Korea's test site."<END QUOTE>

The USTC study is awaiting publication, but a summary says, "The
occurrence of the collapse should deem the underground infrastructure
beneath mountain Mantap not be used for any future nuclear tests."

A Beijing-based analyst points out that another nuclear test at the
site would destabilize not only Mount Mantap but also Changbai
Mountain, the site of an active volcano at the China-Korea border.
South China Morning Post and AFP and Geophysical Research Letters

****
**** North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
****

As I wrote last weekend in "22-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site"
, North Korea
promised to end all nuclear and missile tests, and shut down
Punggye-ri, North Korea's nuclear test site.  Shutting down the
nuclear test site was particularly hailed by the international media
that North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un was turning into a nice
guy, willing to compromise and all that.

Now the laughable news emerges that the nuclear test site is being
shut down because another test would risk a nuclear catastrophe,
according to Chinese scientists.  As I wrote at the time, the North
Korean concession was no concession at all, and in fact was the West's
worst nightmare, since Kim would keep his existing stock of nuclear
weapons, would continue developing nuclear technology without open
testing, and would undoubtedly sell the nuclear technology to other
countries, including Iran.

Now it turns out that the North's whole farcical announcement was a
negotiating ploy to make use of the threat of further testing to lock
in concessions before the West found out.

The collapse of Mantap Mountain represents a collapse of a major part
of North Korea's negotiating position.  With the approach of the
forthcoming meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, Trump has
said repeatedly that he was demanding denuclearization -- that the
North destroy all its nuclear weapons.  Kim had the threat of
reopening the nuclear test site and performing more tests.  But now
that threat is gone, and even though the North can do further nuclear
development, they can never be sure that their developments will work
unless they test them.

However, in another way the collapse of Mount Mantap strengthens North
Korea's negotiating position.  They can claim that if their nuclear
test site is unusable, then the West should remove all sanctions,
since they're no longer needed.  BBC

****
**** The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap
****

We live in a world where whether you believe 2+2 equals 4 or 5 depends
on politics.  So it is with the question of whether the Punggye-ri
test site at Mount Mantap is still usable.

So let's look at China's motives.  China would like to use the North
Korea threat as leverage to force all US military forces out of South
Korea.  Also, China has for years been developing numerous nuclear
missile systems with no other purpose than to destroy American cities,
aircraft carries and military bases.  China is preparing for a
pre-emptive attack on the United States, and they would be delighted
to have North Korean nuclear missiles pointed at the U.S., if only to
be a distraction when the war begins.

But on the other hand, Chinese media makes it clear that, whether the
Punggye-ri is theoretically still usable or not, China does not want
any further nuclear tests there.  The risk is too great, and a serious
mishap could be a nuclear disaster that lasts for decades.

Those mixed motives would explain the suggestion that the
USTC conclusions are being watered down to avoid reaching a final
conclusion that the site is unusable.  This ambiguity preserves
the North's negotiating position.

The web site 38North, which is run by North Korean defectors
in South Korea, is insisting that only a portion of the
Punggye-ri test site has been damaged, and they conclude:

   <QUOTE>"In short, there is no basis to conclude that the
   Punggye-ri nuclear test site is no longer viable for future
   nuclear testing. There remain two portal areas located in more
   pristine competent rock that can be used for future tests if
   Pyongyang were to give the order. Whether that will stay an option
   will depend on reaching verifiable agreements that build on
   Pyongyang’s pledge to shut down the facility."<END QUOTE>

There is no real evidence provided for this conclusion, and the
motives of North Korean defectors are most likely to be that they
don't want the North to get away with anything.  In particular, they
would want the sanctions to continue as long as possible.  Washington Post and Global Times (China) and 38 North

Related Articles:

• North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site (22-Apr-2018)
  
  
• South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal (16-Feb-2007)
  
  
• China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
  
  
• US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
  
  
• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Mount Mantap, Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
University of Science and Technology of China, USTC,
Jilin Earthquake Agency, China Earthquake Administration,
Changbai Mountain

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

What a Laughable piece of S--t analysis that you've just posted. First You argue that North Korea and China are coordinating with regards to facilitating the North Korean Nuclear and concluded that china is current waging cold war against the US and is gearing up for a Hot war against the US regardless of any diplomatic solution or defusing In Korea. Yet somehow after stating said interpretation of events you conclude the best option is that the US agree to a paper "dismantling" of the North Korean program without actually removing the threat which effectively hands China a diplomatic victory and the US only gets a face saving paper "disarmament". Congratulations John X, you've just advocated abject appeasement. 

The military option to North Korea is clearly the best option available to the US but Boomers like yourself have political and ideological vested interests that cause them to consistently refuse that choice no matter how good the arguments and evidence for that option is. Globalists have a vested interest in forcibly democratizing China, not curbing Chinese expansion and/or aggression. Boomer globalists need a world war in order to force democracy on both China and Russia, and they need it to force the acquiescence of the American People to globalism under a synthesis created under conditions of total war: an acquiescence that is impossible without an Ideologically Joined total war.

Because To launch a Major War, political leadership needs to have a sense of confidence of superiority over your projected adversary. Boomer globalist strategists Know that if a Nuclear strike on North Korea took Place whatever Chinese confidence of potential victory based on potential low morale of the US would immediately evaporate as events would have proven any such assessments false. China may continue expansionism afterwards but any projections to launch war with the US with a mindset of "we have everything to gain" would have disappeared. The Chinese May still have contingency defense war plans directed against the US afterwards, but any confidence in an aggressive war against the US would have disappeared after a US nuclear strike on North Korea. But boomer globalists would therefore lose their trigger event for WW3 to democratize the planet. For that reason; Our Boomer globalist leaders refuse to nuke North Korea.

[pbrower2a]

(04-26-2018, 11:30 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(04-26-2018, 10:00 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ****
**** Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
****

When North Korea performed its most recent nuclear weapon test on
September 3 of last year at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
seismologists outside North Korea detected an "earthquake" that
followed the test itself.  Concerns were expressed that the earthquake
was actually a partially collapse of Mount Mantap, where the
Punggye-ri site is located, and that nuclear radiation had been
released.  Unconfirmed reports later said that tunnel collapses had
killed hundreds of North Korean workers.

As we reported last year,
Chinese
geologists on September 20 were warning North Korean nuclear
scientists that further nuclear tests at Mount Mantap risked a nuclear
catastrophe, if the mountain collapsed in an explosion, releasing
large amounts of radiation that could contaminate large regions of
North Korea and northeast China for decades to come.

Now, two groups of Chinese researchers one from the University of
Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei, and the second from
the Jilin Earthquake Agency with the China Earthquake Administration
in Changchun, have both reached similar conclusions: That Mount Mantap
did in fact collapse after North Korea's last nuclear weapons test on
September 3 of last year.

Here's the summary from China's Earthquake Administration:

   <QUOTE>"Seismology illuminates physical processes occurring
   during underground explosions, not all yet fully understood. The
   thus far strongest North Korean test of 3 September 2017 was
   followed by a moderate seismic event (mL 4.1) after 8.5 min. ...

   North Korea detonated its strongest underground nuclear test in
   September 2017. It attracted the public interest worldwide not
   only due to its significant magnitude (6.3 mb) but also because it
   was followed 8.5 min later by a weaker event. Was the delayed
   shock a secondary explosion, an earthquake provoked by the shot,
   or something else? We answer these questions....  According to our
   model, the explosion created a cavity and a damaged “chimney” of
   rocks above it. The aftershock was neither a secondary explosion
   nor a triggered tectonic earthquake. It occurred due to a process
   comparable to a “mirror image” of the explosion, that is, a rock
   collapse, or compaction, for the first time documented in North
   Korea's test site."<END QUOTE>

The USTC study is awaiting publication, but a summary says, "The
occurrence of the collapse should deem the underground infrastructure
beneath mountain Mantap not be used for any future nuclear tests."

A Beijing-based analyst points out that another nuclear test at the
site would destabilize not only Mount Mantap but also Changbai
Mountain, the site of an active volcano at the China-Korea border.
South China Morning Post and AFP and Geophysical Research Letters

****
**** North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
****

As I wrote last weekend in "22-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site"
, North Korea
promised to end all nuclear and missile tests, and shut down
Punggye-ri, North Korea's nuclear test site.  Shutting down the
nuclear test site was particularly hailed by the international media
that North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un was turning into a nice
guy, willing to compromise and all that.

Now the laughable news emerges that the nuclear test site is being
shut down because another test would risk a nuclear catastrophe,
according to Chinese scientists.  As I wrote at the time, the North
Korean concession was no concession at all, and in fact was the West's
worst nightmare, since Kim would keep his existing stock of nuclear
weapons, would continue developing nuclear technology without open
testing, and would undoubtedly sell the nuclear technology to other
countries, including Iran.

Now it turns out that the North's whole farcical announcement was a
negotiating ploy to make use of the threat of further testing to lock
in concessions before the West found out.

The collapse of Mantap Mountain represents a collapse of a major part
of North Korea's negotiating position.  With the approach of the
forthcoming meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, Trump has
said repeatedly that he was demanding denuclearization -- that the
North destroy all its nuclear weapons.  Kim had the threat of
reopening the nuclear test site and performing more tests.  But now
that threat is gone, and even though the North can do further nuclear
development, they can never be sure that their developments will work
unless they test them.

However, in another way the collapse of Mount Mantap strengthens North
Korea's negotiating position.  They can claim that if their nuclear
test site is unusable, then the West should remove all sanctions,
since they're no longer needed.  BBC

****
**** The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap
****

We live in a world where whether you believe 2+2 equals 4 or 5 depends
on politics.  So it is with the question of whether the Punggye-ri
test site at Mount Mantap is still usable.

So let's look at China's motives.  China would like to use the North
Korea threat as leverage to force all US military forces out of South
Korea.  Also, China has for years been developing numerous nuclear
missile systems with no other purpose than to destroy American cities,
aircraft carries and military bases.  China is preparing for a
pre-emptive attack on the United States, and they would be delighted
to have North Korean nuclear missiles pointed at the U.S., if only to
be a distraction when the war begins.

But on the other hand, Chinese media makes it clear that, whether the
Punggye-ri is theoretically still usable or not, China does not want
any further nuclear tests there.  The risk is too great, and a serious
mishap could be a nuclear disaster that lasts for decades.

Those mixed motives would explain the suggestion that the
USTC conclusions are being watered down to avoid reaching a final
conclusion that the site is unusable.  This ambiguity preserves
the North's negotiating position.

The web site 38North, which is run by North Korean defectors
in South Korea, is insisting that only a portion of the
Punggye-ri test site has been damaged, and they conclude:

   <QUOTE>"In short, there is no basis to conclude that the
   Punggye-ri nuclear test site is no longer viable for future
   nuclear testing. There remain two portal areas located in more
   pristine competent rock that can be used for future tests if
   Pyongyang were to give the order. Whether that will stay an option
   will depend on reaching verifiable agreements that build on
   Pyongyang’s pledge to shut down the facility."<END QUOTE>

There is no real evidence provided for this conclusion, and the
motives of North Korean defectors are most likely to be that they
don't want the North to get away with anything.  In particular, they
would want the sanctions to continue as long as possible.  Washington Post and Global Times (China) and 38 North

What a Laughable piece of S--t analysis that you've just posted. First You argue that North Korea and China are coordinating with regards to facilitating the North Korean Nuclear and concluded that china is current waging cold war against the US and is gearing up for a Hot war against the US regardless of any diplomatic solution or defusing In Korea. Yet somehow after stating said interpretation of events you conclude the best option is that the US agree to a paper "dismantling" of the North Korean program without actually removing the threat which effectively hands China a diplomatic victory and the US only gets a face saving paper "disarmament". Congratulations John X, you've just advocated abject appeasement.

It is South Korea and the People's Republic of China who want the North Korean nuke program shut down. At this point I give more credit to the People's Republic of China for insisting that a nuclear program of greater immediate danger to China than to anyone else be wound down. Trust or distrust the PRC as you wish, and I don't trust its politics... but danger is danger. If the PRC has its legitimate concerns about a needless peril from a regime long considered an international pariah, then it might win American support on that.

There is always the danger that a North Korean nuke in a missile will cross only one international boundary before a premature explosion. Yes, Chinese lives are precious, too. China distrusts the nuke and ICBM programs of North Korea as much for technical reasons even more than out of fear of an intended attack.

What John Xenakis advocates is anything but appeasement.

Quote:The military option to North Korea is clearly the best option available to the US but Boomers like yourself have political and ideological vested interests that cause them to consistently refuse that choice no matter how good the arguments and evidence for that option is. Globalists have a vested interest in forcibly democratizing China, not curbing Chinese expansion and/or aggression. Boomer globalists need a world war in order to force democracy on both China and Russia, and they need it to force the acquiescence of the American People to globalism under a synthesis created under conditions of total war: an acquiescence that is impossible without an Ideologically Joined total war.

I don't agree with X on many issues, and he might be right for the wrong reasons. But I am going to give the PRC the benefit of the doubt on this. We may all be hypocrites on favoring the lives of our citizens over those of other countries, but if appeasing the PRC is the price for dismantling nuke and missile programs in the PRC, then so be it. Sure, I would love to see China democratize. I would also love to have a million dollars appear in my bank account, too.

As for me -- this Boomer does not want any new 'war to end all wars'. As the late GI science-fiction writer Robert Heinlein said, we need not seek adventure; it will seek us.

Quote:Because To launch a Major War, political leadership needs to have a sense of confidence of superiority over your projected adversary. Boomer globalist strategists Know that if a Nuclear strike on North Korea took Place whatever Chinese confidence of potential victory based on potential low morale of the US would immediately evaporate as events would have proven any such assessments false. China may continue expansionism afterwards but any projections to launch war with the US with a mindset of "we have everything to gain" would have disappeared. The Chinese May still have contingency defense war plans directed against the US afterwards, but any confidence in an aggressive war against the US would have disappeared after a US nuclear strike on North Korea. But boomer globalists would therefore lose their trigger event for WW3 to democratize the planet. For that reason; Our Boomer globalist leaders refuse to nuke North Korea.

(Cheap swipe, Cynic Hero: I suggest that you take a course in freshman composition in your local community college, where such is inexpensive and convenient. Your abuse of capital letters irritates people who consider writing a noble activity).

As I see it, the Chinese are more likely to look at the USA as a market for inexpensive subcompact cars that Ford Motor Company wishes to abandon as an activity in America. Yes, I am satisfied that the PRC would love to transform the DPRK ) which is not at all democratic, ill serves and does not meaningfully represent any part of the Korean people except for the leading ranks of the alleged Workers' Party of the DPRK, and is better described as an absolute monarchy than as a republic) into a puppet state of the PRC. But that would be an improvement just for making North Korea more capitalist.

As we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan, we cannot readily impose democracy where it is unwelcome. Sure, we could restore it in countries that had abandoned democracy for fascism after peoples of those countries decided that democracy, however inconvenient it was, was far safer than the tyranny that people thought pointless after it brought economic ruin and national shame. Putin will not rule Russia forever, and when democracy ever comes to China it will stick in a country with a philosophical heritage more like those of Japan and South Korea than those three countries might want to admit.

But now, the United States of America is not a democracy, or is at least a very flawed one. Our government by lobbyists is a new form of dictatorship, and our current President is more despotic than any President that we have ever had -- by far!

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Apr-18 World View -- Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan
  
• Russia moves to increase dominance over Caspian Sea
  

****
**** Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan
****


Map: The Caspian Trade Corridor is part of the New Silk Road connecting Asia with Europe

A continuing issue facing the US-led Nato military forces in
Afghanistan is sending supplies to the landlocked country. Since the
war began in 2001, most resupply has been done by shipping to
Pakistan's port in Karachi, and then overland by truck across
Pakistan, through the Khyber Pass, into Afghanistan. This route has
been reliable for the most part, there have been times when political
disagreements between the US and Pakistan have cause Pakistan to close
the Khyber Pass to US military goods.

As a backup, Nato has been developing several Central Asia truck and
rail overland supply routes, such as from Europe through Russia to
Kazakhstan, and then through Uzbekistan to Afghanistan.

Kazakhstan is about to sign an agreement with the US that will permit
Nato forces to substantially increase use of the existing Caspian
Trade Corridor, by shipping through the Aktau and Kuryk ports on the
Caspian Sea, completely bypassing Russia. Nato supplies from Europe
will pass through Turkey and Georgia, through Azerbaijan to the port
at Baku. From there, the supplies will be ferried across the Caspian
Sea to one of the Kazakh ports, and then travel overland by truck
through Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan, and then by rail to Afghanistan.

According to Kazakh officials, only nonmilitary goods will go through
the ports. Nonetheless, Russian authorities are opposed to this
US-Kazakh deal because it could change the balance of power in the
Caspian Sea, which the Russians consider to be their own back yard.

But since the purpose of the deal is to allow transit of supplies to
the military in Afghanistan, the Russians fear that American soldiers
might be deployed to the ports, and that the ports eventually will
turn into American military bases.

Another reason why Russians oppose the deal is because it gives them
one less level to use against Nato -- blocking goods from transiting
across Russia -- in retaliation for Western sanctions against Russia.

According to one Russian analyst, "Under the current conditions of
American-Russian and traditional American-Iranian conflicts, this [new
US] presence will generate anger both in Moscow and in Tehran."
EurasiaNet and Jamestown and EurAsia Daily

Related Articles

• Meltdown in US-Pakistan relations forces Afghan war changes (07-Jul-2011)
  
  
• The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road (25-May-2016)
  
  
• Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan (26-Nov-2013)
  

****
**** Russia moves to increase dominance over Caspian Sea
****

There are five littoral states bordering the Caspian Sea -- Iran,
Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. For decades,
they've been unable to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea
among them. They agree that the entire surface of the sea should be
open to all for commercial shipping and for fishing. However, there
are also large deposits of gas and oil, and large disagreements over
who gets to exploit them.

Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states -- the Soviet Union
and Iran. The Soviets controlled the Caspian Sea, and forced Iran to
follow Soviet policy. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, the
individual states began setting up individual independent oil and gas
development projects. By the end of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin was
taking charge, and used every heavy-handed form of obstruction to
prevent these projects from going forward.

International laws provide for various methods for splitting up
ownership of the seabed. According to one method, the size of the
region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline
bordering the sea. Under this method Azerbaijan, Russia and
Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these
countries favor it.

According to a second set of rules, there are five littoral states,
and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them
each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this set of
rules, because they have the shortest shorelines.

Putin has used these conflicting rules to provoke disagreements among
the littoral states, with the result that in the 27 years since the
disintegration of the Soviet Union no agreement has been reached. But
recent bursts of pragmatism are bringing about agreements that may
unlock some of the oil and gas fields.

Iran and Azerbaijan are adjacent countries along the Caspian Sea
coastline, and attempts by either country to exploit the seabed have
sometimes provoked gunboat diplomacy by the other. But on March 28,
Iran and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding
on joint development of two oil and gas fields in the Caspian
Sea.

Russia and Kazakhstan are also adjacent countries along the Caspian
Sea coastline, and they've also had disputes in the past about
ownership of three fields in the northern part of the Caspian Sea.
But they settled their disputes in 2002, dividing the three oil and
gas fields between them.

It will be more troublesome for Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to reach
agreement. They are not adjacent, but they are opposite each other in
the a region of the Caspian Sea where there are oil and gas fields in
the middle. However, agreement on joint development may be difficult
to reach because both countries' economies are weak, and they would
have to share the multi-billion dollar investment costs for offshore
development projects. And then they would have to share the risk that
oil prices could fall again, making it impossible to recover the money
they invested.

There's one more emerging issue that needs to be highlighted. Readers
may recall that in October 2015, Russia began launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea,

attacking targets in Syria. The cruise missiles were launched from
Russia's Caspian Flotilla, with a home base in Astrakhan, in the
northern edge of the Caspian Sea.

Russia has announced that the flotilla will be moved to Kaspiisk,
Dagestan, near the border with Azerbaijan, and that the number of
officers and sailors assigned to the flotilla will be increased.

This change will increase Russia's dominance over the Caspian Sea.
From Kaspiisk, Russia will be able to exert much more control over
Dagestan and the other North Caucasus provinces. It will also give
Russia more control over the entire Caspian Sea, and provide leverage
to prevent building of east-west pipelines under the Caspian.
Finally, Russia's warships will be able to launch cruise missiles at
Syria much more quickly than in the past. AzerNews (Azerbaijan) and Jamestown and Asia Times and RFE/RL

Related Articles

• Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea (24-May-2017)
  
  
• Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea (08-Oct-2015)
  
  
• What was the purpose of Russia's Caspian Sea cruise missile attack on Syria? (27-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Azerbaijan becomes the hub of the Caspian Trade Corridor, part of the new Silk Road (21-Jan-2016)
  
  
• A naval arms race is growing on the Caspian Sea (25-Jun-2010)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Caspian Sea, Iran, Soviet Union,
Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Pakistan, Khyber Pass, Nato, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan,
Syria, Astrakhan, Dagestan, Kaspiisk

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Apr-18 World View -- Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army
  
• Burma (Myanmar) appears to be entering a full-scale crisis civil war
  

****
**** Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army
****


The Je Yang camp for Kachin refugees along China's border in Burma (AP)

Some 4,000 ethnic Kachins have been driven from their homes in the
last three weeks by an escalating conflict between Burma's (Myanmar's)
army and the separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and are now
sheltering in makeshift shelters in the jungle around nearby villages.
An additional 15,000 people have fled their homes since the beginning
of the year.

There has been a longstanding low-level conflict between Burma's army
and the KIA for several decades, but conflict has severely escalated
since the beginning of this year. The conflict is expected to worsen,
as reports indicate that the army is deploying reinforcements,
including 2,000 infantry troops, fighter aircraft and helicopters.

The Burmese army's fight against the Kachin ethnic group and other
ethnic groups in northern Burma has been eclipsed in the international
news by the ethnic cleansing by the army of ethnic Rohingyas in
Rakhine State. That ethnic cleansing is still in progress.

However, the additional reinforcements that the army is deploying were
probably taken from the troops assigned to the ethnic cleansing
activities in Rakhine State, indicating that Burma's government now
considers the Kachin insurgency to be of an increasing priority.
Democratic Voice of Burma and BBC and AFP and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Burma (Myanmar) appears to be entering a full-scale crisis civil war
****

In 2007, I wrote the article "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter,"
describing anti-government riots and
demonstrations by Buddhist monks. Many people feared a full-scale
civil war, but as I wrote at the time, that wouldn't happen because
only 49 years had passed since the end of the previous crisis civil
war. In the "Brief generational history of Burma" that I included
with that article, I described Burma's last generational crisis war,
1948-58, as a civil war among ethnic groups, with intervention by the
Chinese, with a war climax in 1958 when the army took over power, and
turned power over to a civilian government.

I wrote at that time that a new crisis war would not occur at that
time, but would probably occur within ten years or so, as the
survivors of the previous crisis war disappear.

Well, ten years have passed, and it appears that Burma is entering
a new full-scale crisis civil war, with ethnic cleansing of
the Rohingyas occurring in one place, and an escalating fight
with ethnic groups in the north.

The tipping point into this new generational crisis war (or the
"regeneracy," using the technical term from generational theory) seems
to have occurred in November 2016, when the Kachin Independence Army
(KIA) joined together with other with the militant wings of other
ethnic groups in northern Burma to form the Northern Alliance, whose
members will fight Burma's army together.

The other militant groups are the Ta’ang National Liberation Army
(TNLA), the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front
promoting self-determination for the Ta’ang people living in Shan
State, Yunnan and Northern Thailand; the Myanmar National Democratic
Alliance Army (MNDAA), the armed wing of the ethnic Chinese Kokang
ethnic group, living in the northern part of Shan state, along the
border with China; and the Arakan Army (AA), the armed wing of the
Arakan people in Kachin state.

These represent the ethnic groups that fought in the civil war that
climaxed in 1958, and 58 years later in 2016 (right on schedule
according to generational theory), they apparently joined together to
form the Northern Alliance and fight a new civil war. Reuters (21-Nov-2016) and Time (9-Mar-2017) and The Irrawaddy and Foreign Policy

Related Articles:

• Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter (26-Sep-2007)
  
  
• American aid ships are ordered to leave Burma's (Myanmar's) waters (05-Jun-2008)
  
  
• Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement (15-Oct-2015)
  
  
• China puts army on high alert along border with Burma (Myanmar) (22-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Northern Alliance,
Kachins, Kachin Independence Army, KIA,
Ta’ang National Liberation Army, TNLA, Arakan Army, AA,
Kokangs, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Apr-18 World View -- Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again
  
• Imran Khan threatens an anti-American and pro-Chinese agenda
  

****
**** Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again
****


Imran Khan at Sunday's rally in Lahore, Pakistan (Daily Pakistan)

Imran Khan, a Pashtun born in 1952, was one of Pakistan's greatest
cricket players of all time, and was once voted as the "Sexiest Man of
The Year" by Australia Magazine Oz. He turned to politics in the
1990s, and has become extremely colorful and extremely anti-American.

On Sunday, Khan officially began his campaign to become prime
minister. Khan gave what he described as the most important speech of
his life to a huge enthusiastic crowd of supporters in Lahore. This
was the same venue as the rally in October 2011, when he stunned
observers by drawing 100,000 people to the rally, far exceeding
expectations. Saying that "It's time for a change," he promised to
have closer ties with China, to distance Pakistan from the U.S., and
to "convince" India to withdraw its military from the disputed regions
of Kashmir and Jammu.

In Sunday's speech, he provided 11 points for change in Pakistan, in
what might be described as a fairy tale worthy of Bernie Sanders.
Here's a summary of the 11 points:

• Invest maximum on development of people, on education for
  all.
  
  
• Health facilities will be made available to all. "I will build
  hospitals in Pakistan where the poor wouldn’t have to worry about
  money and the rich wouldn’t need to go abroad for treatment."
  
  
• "We don't have money to run countries, we're under heavy debts. I
  claim in front of you today that I will show you how to gather money
  from this nation." That will be done by revolutionizing the tax
  collection system.
  
  
• Eradicate all corruption from Pakistan, one of the most corrupt
  countries in the world.
  
  
• Revamp investment policy to attract giant investors. "We will
  reduce the tax on electricity and gas for our industries so that they
  could compete with Indian market."
  
  
• Eradicate unemployment, and especially focus on boosting the
  tourism industry of Pakistan.
  
  
• Improve agriculture and the lives of farmers. "Farmers work for
  the whole year and get nothing in the end. They are being exploited by
  the sugar mill mafia."
  
  
• Bring Fata (the federally administered tribal area) into the
  mainstream.
  
  
• Improve the environment, including the planting of 10 billion
  trees across Pakistan. "We can even clean the rivers."
  
  
• Depoliticize the justice and police system, and eliminate
  extrajudicial killings.
  
  
• Empower women through education. "Whatever I am today, it’s all
  because of my mother who made me a patriotic person and raised me to
  be a truthful person."

Khan referred to the founder of Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, by the
name Quaid-i-Azam, and said:

<QUOTE>"The Pakistan that Quaid-e-Azam wanted would afford
equal rights to all citizens including the minorities, where the
Hindu community, Sikhs, and Christians would be equal
citizens. This country was to be formed on the model of Medina,
where the basis of law was justice.

Prophet (PBUH) brought the entire Muslim nation towards truth and
righteousness by way of his own example. The Muslim nation then
ruled the entire world for 700 years but as soon as the royal
system of kingdoms was established, the poor became poorer and the
rich became richer. ...

“We are on crossroads today, on one end it’s disrespect and on the
other, it’s dignity."<END QUOTE>

The last sentence refers to Khan's plan to sever all connections that
Pakistan has to the United States, claiming that instead of being
disrespected by the U.S., this move would restore Pakistan's dignity.

The speech is totally delusional. If Imran Khan were elected, he
would turn Pakistan into another Venezuela. Daily Pakistan and The News (Pakistan)

****
**** Imran Khan threatens an anti-American and pro-Chinese agenda
****

Pakistan has been plagued by frequent terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda
linked jihadist groups, usually part of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP,
Pakistan Taliban). These attacks have particularly targeted religious
minorities in Pakistan. Shia Muslims are targeted most often, along
with Hindus, Ahmadis and Christians.

In his speech on Sunday, Khan gave lip service to a Pakistan "where
the Hindu community, Sikhs, and Christians would be equal citizens."
However, the Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and Khan himself is a
Pashtun, and appears to be sympathetic to the Taliban. He's openly
supporting the Afghanistan Taliban.

Even though it's clear that the attacks in Pakistan by the Taliban are
sectarian based, Khan insists on blaming them on the Americans and, in
particular, by American drone strikes on Taliban terrorists in the
Fata (federally administered tribal area along the border with
Afghanistan). In 2013 he got his followers to blockade the "Khyber
pass," a major route into Afghanistan that is heavily used by Nato
forces to truck equipment between the port of Karachi and Nato bases
in Afghanistan. The blockade finally ended in February 2014.

On January 1 of this year, US president Donald Trump tweeted that
Pakistan had given nothing to the US but "lies and deceit" and
provided "safe haven" to terrorists in return for $33 billion aid over
the last 15 years, thinking of American leaders as "fools."

This infuriated Khan, who accused the US for using Pakistan as a "gun
for hire," and made two proposals:

<QUOTE>"Two immediate measures can be taken by Pakistan to
send an unambiguous message to the US: One, we must immediately
remove excessive US diplomatic, non-diplomatic and intelligence
personnel from Pakistan, so that diplomatic parity is established
according to international legal norms governing diplomatic
relations between two states. Two, we must deny the US GLOC and
AIRLOC facilities which we were providing free of cost to the
US. ..

The lesson we must learn is never to be used by other for
short-term paltry financial benefits ever again. We became a US
proxy for a war against the Soviet Union when it entered
Afghanistan and we allowed the CIA to create, train and arm Jihadi
group on our soil and a decade later we tried to eliminate them as
terrorists on US orders."<END QUOTE>

The last paragraph refers to the 1980s Soviet Union invasion of
Afghanistan, when the US secretly funded anti-Soviet Saudi rebels who
later turned into al-Qaeda.

As regular readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan
and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran.
In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast
war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various
ethnic groups against each other.

If Imran Khan becomes prime minister, it would move Pakistan along
this trend line. Khan will follow through on his plans to develop
closer relations with China, and to distance Pakistan from America.
Times of India (4-Jan)

Related Articles

• Hope and change Pakistan candidate Imran Khan draws huge crowd in Karachi (26-Dec-2011)
  
  
• Pakistan's Imran Khan detained by US immigration during fund-raising trip (28-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan (26-Nov-2013)
  
  
• Pakistan protesters end their blockade of the Nato supply route (28-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Pakistan's army called to quell massive anti-government protest (20-Aug-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan,
Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Quaid-i-Azam,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, al-Qaeda,
Fata, federally administered tribal area

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-May-18 World View -- Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan
  
• The Taliban announces the Spring fighting season, codename Al Khandaq
  
• Analysts guess at why Afghanistan's security situation keeps deteriorating
  

****
**** Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan
****


Security forces run from the second coordinated suicide attack bombing in Kabul on Monday (AP)

Two coordinated suicide bombings on Monday in Kabul, the capital city
of Afghanistan, killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists,
who were apparently targeted. The first suicide bomber was on a
motorbike and exploded his device near Afghan intelligence
headquarters in Kabul. After the initial suicide bombings,
journalists arrived to report on it, and were targeted by a second
suicide bomber.

There were other terror attacks in cities across Afghanistan on
Monday, including a car bombing in Kandahar province that killed eight
Romanian soldiers, as well as multiple Afghan police officers and
civilians.

Last Sunday, a massive terror attack in Kabul killed 60 people as they waited in a voter registration center,
in a region of the city inhabited by members of the mainly
Shia ethnic Hazara community, whom the Taliban has frequently
targeted. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Reuters and Business Insider

****
**** The Taliban announces the Spring fighting season, codename Al Khandaq
****

This new series of attacks just a few days after the Taliban announced
its 2018 fighting season, codenamed "Al Khandaq." According to the
Taliban announcement:

<QUOTE>"The planning and strategy of the Al Khandaq Jihadi
operations are organized by the expert and proficient skilled
cadre of the Military Commission of the Islamic Emirate which is
based on guerilla, offensive, infiltrated and various other new
and intricate tactics against the new war strategy of the enemy,
mainly focusing on crushing, killing and capturing American
invaders and their supporters. ...

Besides sustaining the ongoing illegitimate occupation, the newly
adopted war strategy of Trump has been ruthlessly implemented in
the villages and rural areas against our oppressed Afghan people
for the past nine months. Thousands of additional foreign forces
are being deployed inside Afghanistan and they are supplied with
new devastating weapons and vast military
authorities."<END QUOTE>

The Taliban statement dismissed efforts at bringing about peace
negotiations as "deceptive efforts" launched by the "ineffectual and
corrupt officials of the puppet regime inside and outside the country
are nothing but a conspiracy orchestrated by the foreign occupiers for
enervating." Daily Times (Pakistan)

****
**** Analysts guess at why Afghanistan's security situation keeps deteriorating
****

Every time I read an article by an analyst or journalist trying
to explain why the security situation in Afghanistan has been
deteriorating for years, it's pretty clear that they don't
even know the most basic facts about the country. I've been
explaining for years why any sort of "victory" in Afghanistan
is impossible, and the reasons I gave years ago are still true
today. I'll repeat them below, but first, let's take a look
at some of the reasons that the media are providing.

Axios writer Michael Kugelman gives three reasons that don't even
make as much sense as a Donald Duck cartoon. Here are his
reasons:

• Intensified U.S. military pressure. According to Klugman,
  increased pressure by the US military is driving the Taliban
  to terror attacks in the cities. So is he saying that if there
  were les US military pressure, then there would be fewer terror
  attacks? This reasoning is almost a joke, especially since
  the security situation has been deteriorating rapidly since
  the withdrawal of U.S. troops began in 2014.
  
  
• The Taliban is a national insurgency determined to weaken if not
  overthrow the Afghan state. That's an easy, fatuous reason that's
  been true for 15 years, but it doesn't explain what's different
  now.
  
  
• The Taliban and ISIS are staging terror attacks because they're
  easy to pull off. By this vacuous reasoning, there should be terror
  attacks in almost every country in the world.

Kugelman's reasons were completely empty-headed, but a more
intelligent attempt was made by Allison Jackson, AFP's Kabul Bureau
chief. Jackson gave her reasons in an interview on Monday on RFI.
Jackson was asked whether the security situation has deteriorated (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"Absolutely. I don't know anyone who would say
otherwise. I've only been here 8 months, but everyone I speak to
says since 2014 the security situation has deteriorated
significantly, and now it's the worst it's ever been, and there
are a number of reasons for that.

Nato ended its combat mission at the end of 2014. Since then, the
Taliban has been resurgent, and is taking back a lot of the
territory that they had lost while the Nato combat troops were on
the ground, and the US presence is obviously much more diminished
in comparison to what it was pre-2014.

And Islamic State would have been merged in Afghanistan in 2014
2015, and they claimed their first major attack in 2016, in the
summer of 2016, with an attack on Shias, and since then have
launched more than a dozen attacks in Kabul alone.

They've come under significant pressure. The Taliban has also
come under significant pressure, following Donald Trump's new
strategy in August, and that announcement basically gave the US
air force and special forces much more leeway to go after the
Taliban, IS, other militant groups. I think what these sorts of
attacks show is that even in the heart of Kabul, ordinary Afghans
are extremely vulnerable, the government is not able to secure the
capital city. Resolute Support, which is the name of Nato's
mission here, has said that protecting Kabul is a priority, but
they've also admitted that it's very difficult to protect a city
that is so porous as Kabul."<END QUOTE>

Jackson's entire explanation is that the security situation has
worsened because of the withdrawal of most Nato forces in 2014. That
makes sense, but it's not particularly useful because it doesn't
explain why Nato forces are needed in the first place. There are
dozens of countries where no Nato troops aren't deployed. Why does
Afghanistan have terror attacks when those countries don't?

Kugelman's office is in Washington DC, far from Afghanistan,
so there's no reason to expect him to know anything, unless
he makes a special effort, which apparently he hasn't.

But Jackson has been Kabul bureau chief for eight months. During
that eight months, she might have learned something about the
shifting ethnic and generational pressures that are bringing
about these Taliban terror attacks.

As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis
war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which
mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later
formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later,
Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young
generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their
parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern
Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.

But you don't have to know anything about generational history
to understand what's going on. You just have to understand
that there was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96,
pitting the Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that
the Taliban are Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking
for revenge for atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that
Nato troops are completely irrelevant.

Those are simple facts that Amy Jackson might have learned during her
eight months in Kabul, or that even Michael Kugelman might have
learned, even though he's in Washington. Then they could give more
intelligent analyses.

However, as I've written in the past, I believe that this dynamic is
understood by the Nato military, and by the US administration, and
that they understand that this war cannot be won, but they have a
larger purpose in mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches,
president Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan,
and to continue to maintain several American military bases in
Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar
International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war
with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan
is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. Axios and ABC News

Related Articles

• ISIS-K suicide bomber kills over 50 in Kabul, Afghanistan, registering to vote (23-Apr-2018)
  
  
• New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan (01-Feb-2018)
  
  
• New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 (28-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Taliban,
Spring fighting season, Al Khandaq,
Axios, Michael Kugelman, Amy Jackson,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Nato, Resolute Support, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-May-18 World View -- Russia confounded by the chaotic popular uprising in Armenia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Armenia's parliament refuses to support popular opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan
  
• Nikol Pashinyan pledges loyalty to Russia, and everyone else
  
• Armenia in a generational Awakening era
  

****
**** Armenia's parliament refuses to support popular opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan
****


Supporters of Nikol Pashinyan demonstrate in Yerevan (Pravda)

Armenia's political turmoil went into full-scale chaos on Tuesday,
when the governing Republican party, which has a majority in the
parliament, refused to support opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan's bid
to become prime minister, leaving the country with no prime minister
and no obvious alternate candidate.

Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan stepped down as prime minister on August
23, in the face of huge street protests led by Pashinyan, and his
threats to shut down the country with nationwide protests and strikes.
( "26-Apr-18 World View -- Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister"
)

After the parliament on Tuesday had hours of acrimonious debate and
then refused to elect Pashinyan as the new prime minister to replace
Sargsyan, there were once again tens of thousands of protesters in
Republic Square in the capital city Yerevan. Pashinyan told the
cheering supporters, "We will block the streets, the airports, the
metro, the railway, everything that can be blocked."

The protests are expected to continue. The parliament will hold
another vote on May 8, and if no prime minister is elected, then the
parliament will be dissolved, and new elections will be held.
News (Armenia) and
BBC and
Reuters and Bloomberg

****
**** Nikol Pashinyan pledges loyalty to Russia, and everyone else
****

The turmoil in Armenia is of crucial importance to Russia because
Armenia under Serzh Sargsyan was a close ally to Russia and followed
Russia's policy. Russia has an airbase in Armenia, and in 2013,
Armenia chose to join a Russian-led customs union, rather than sign an
association agreement with Armenia.

The rapid collapse last week of the Sargsyan government sends shock
waves through Moscow because of visceral fears that a popular uprising
could similar bring about the collapse of Russia's government, led by
president Vladimir Putin. Those who consider this idea far-fetched
might think back to 1991, when a popular uprising led to the collapse
of the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev, and its replacement by a
government led by Boris Yeltsin.

In the last ten years, Russia has used military force in Ukraine and
Georgia in the face of threats of the governments of those
countries to align themselves with the European Union rather than
Russia. Until last month, Armenia was safely on Russia's team,
but now that's no longer certain.

Prior to the election in parliament that rejected his bid
to become prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan gave a speech
outlining his policies, including the following "foreign
policy":

<QUOTE>"If I am elected, Armenia will not make turns in the
foreign policy domain; it will remain a member of the EAEU and the
CSTO. This position does not stem from a person’s taste, but the
logic of the movement that brought victory to the
people. Demanding numerous changes in domestic life, the people
did not and do not demand any change in foreign policy domain. We
considered and consider Russia the strategic ally of Armenia, and
this movement does not pose any threat to the [Russian
Federation].

We will deepen relations with the European Union and the EU member
countries. We will do everything for the [Republic of Armenia]
citizens toward the EU visa regime abolition; we expect to start
negotiations on it in the nearest future. The soonest
implementation of the EU-Armenia agreement stems from our own
interests. The government that I will head will deepen relations
with the US, China, will remain committed to the process of
[Armenian] Genocide recognition; Armenia will continue playing the
role of the pioneer on this matter."<END QUOTE>

Pashinyan's speech could hardly have been reassuring to Russian
officials. But the current situation, where Pashinyan was rejected by
the legislature, and massive protests and demonstrations are
continuing in the streets, can hardly be considered any better.
Jamestown and News (Armenia) and Tass (Russia) and AFP (26-Apr)

****
**** Armenia in a generational Awakening era
****

According to some reports, Russian officials have been caught by
surprise by the rapid collapse of the Serzh Sargsyan government, since
they had expected Sargsyan to have used military force to stop the
protests and remain in power. Perhaps the Russians were thinking of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, who stopped similar protests by
sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping
barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and
chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people.

For those interested in the theoretical aspects of Generational
Dynamics, it's worth taking a moment to sort out what's happening.

As I described a couple of times,

Armenia is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the
bloody conflict in 1989-94 versus Azerbaijan over the enclave
Nagorno-Karabakh. In this sense, Armenia is similar to America in the
1960s, one generation past the end of World War II.

Every generational Awakening era (including the Unraveling era that
follows) is politically torn by a "generation gap" that pits the
traumatized survivors of the preceding crisis war versus their
children, the generations that grow up after the crisis war and have
no personal memories of its horrors and atrocities.

Regular readers know that there's been a great deal of theoretical
development on how these Awakening eras differ, depending on whether
the preceding crisis war was an external war with another country
versus an internal crisis civil war between tribes and ethnic groups.
In the former case, the two armies each withdraw from the other
country, and further contact between the populations is done
diplomatically. But in the latter case, the two populations to live
with each other when the war ends -- in the same country, the same
villages and even on the same streets. This means that the hatred and
the desire for revenge continue at a very personal level.

In the case of popular protests when the previous crisis war was an
ethnic or tribal civil war, the protests are taken as a sign that the
civil war is beginning again, and the government uses that as an
excuse to use massacres, extrajudicial killings, jailings, torture,
rape and other atrocities on the political opposition. The extreme
example is Bashar al-Assad, whom I've described is the worst genocidal
monster and war criminal so far this century. But I've also described
the same phenomenon, with varying levels of violence, with Paul Biya
in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda,
Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in
DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hun Sen in
Cambodia and Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka.

But if the last crisis war was an external war, then popular protests
are not viewed as posing a similar sort of threat, and lead to an
"Awakening climax" which is often a bloodless coup. This is what
happened in America when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974, and is what
is happening now in Armenia with the forced resignation of Serzh
Sargsyan.

It's impossible to predict how this political chaos in Armenia will
sort itself out. Right now, it appears that Nikol Pashinyan is so
popular, that one way or another he's going to become prime minister,
after which probably the same mobs that put him into power will turn
against him, and he'll go from being the most popular to being the
most unpopular. The only thing we can be sure of is that the chaos is
going to continue for some time to come, and the only thing that
Russians can do is watch and see what happens. Pravda (Moscow) and Chai Khana (Georgia) and World Policy Institute

Related articles:

• Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister (26-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country (18-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli (25-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Armenia says it's 'ready for war' with Azerbaijan 'bastards' (04-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Sri Lanka declares state of emergency after Buddhist-Muslim violence (07-Mar-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan,
Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Richard Nixon,
Ukraine, Georgia, Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-May-18 World View -- Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program
  
• Importance of 2003 Iraq War revealed by the Iranian intelligence coup
  

****
**** Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program
****


Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands next to a facsimile of the intelligence archive that Mossad had taken from a Tehran warehouse in January (Times of Israel)

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday revealed the
results of a massive intelligence coup by Israel's intelligence agency
Mossad.

In February 2016, spies from Mossad discovered the top-secret location
of a warehouse in Iran's capital city Tehran where thousands of
documents related to Iran's past nuclear weapons developments were
stored. Mossad operatives broke into the building one night in
January of this year, removed half a ton of archived documents, and
smuggled them back to Israel the same night. The material included
55,000 pages and another 55,000 files on 183 CDs.

The archived material was of Iran's nuclear program that began
in the 1980s, and ended in 2003, when the Iraq war revealed
that Saddam Hussein was not developing WMDs.

The trove of intelligence data is being used in the debate over what
the Trump administration should do on May 12, when it must decide
whether to abandon the nuclear deal that the West signed with Iran,
known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Those who favor continuing to support the JCPOA say that there's
nothing in the trove of data that indicates that Iran has violated
any of its obligations under the treaty, and that appears to be
true.

Those who oppose continuing to support the JCPOA say that Iran lied
about the extent of its nuclear weapons program that ended in 2003.
In particular, they say that Iran claimed that the nuclear development
was only for peaceful purposes, while the intelligence data provides
extensive technical information on how Iran was developing nuclear
weapons.

Those who favor continuing to support the JCPOA say nothing revealed
in the intelligence haul was new, and that in fact it was known and
published in a 2011 document from the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA).

Those who oppose continuing to support the JCPOA say that the 2011
IAEA document contains only a small fraction of the information that
was revealed in the intelligence trove, and that furthermore Iran had
not destroyed all the work in its nuclear weapons program, as it had
promised.

So this is all going to be a major heated and sometimes acrimonious
debate between now and May 12, when President Trump will announce the
administration's decision on whether to continue to support the JCPOA.

It's also worth noting that in October 2015, Hashemi Rafsanjani, the
head of Iran's Expediency Council, said in a televised interview that
Iran had begun developing nuclear weapons in the 1980s during the Iran/Iraq war,
and continued
development for many years. Times of Israel and International Atomic Energy Commission-IAEA (PDF,2011) and Times of Israel


****
**** Importance of 2003 Iraq War revealed by the Iranian intelligence coup
****

Even by the extremely low to nonexistent standards of today's
journalists and today's politicians, the statements made about the
Iraq war on a daily basis are abysmally ignorant, saying that it was a
catastrophe and the worst war in American history and other idiotic
things. Actually, it's the people who opposed the Iraq war in 2003
who owe the world an apology, since they were unwilling to stop Saddam
Hussein from using WMDs to kill thousands of people.

The new intelligence trove from Iran provides further evidence that
NOT pursuing the Iraq war could have been a catastrophe.

We now know that the Iran had a very aggressive nuclear weapons
development program that began in the 1980s during the Iran/Iraq war,
at a time when Saddam Hussein was using mustard gas and other WMDs on
Kurds and Iranians.

This program continued until October 2003, when Iran's Supreme Leader
Seyed Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa ending all nuclear weapons
development. The fatwa was issued because the American invasion
of Iraq and the defeat of Saddam Hussein had ended any possibility
of Iraq developing nuclear weapons. Iran had already been
victimized by Saddam's WMDs, and in 2003 Saddam was refusing
IAEA inspections, so without the Iraq war there was little doubt
that Saddam would continue development of WMDs, and possibly
nuclear weapons.

If it hadn't been for the Iraq war, then Iran would have continued
nuclear weapons development, and would be a major nuclear weapons
power in the Mideast today. Furthermore, since Iran has been working
with North Korea, North Korea would also be a major nuclear weapons
power today.

Saudi Arabia would not have simply tolerated a nuclear Iran, so it
would have obtained its own nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Saddam
Hussein would undoubtedly at least continued development of WMDs. So
the Mideast and the world would be very different and infinitely more
dangerous places today if it hadn't been for the Iraq war. Bloomberg

Related Articles

• Khamenei's nuclear fatwa and the Iraq war (29-Oct-2015)
  
  
• The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (17-Feb-2008)
  
  
• Economists baffled on 30th anniversary of 1987 stock market panic (20-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mossad,
Iran, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA,
Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, North Korea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-May-18 World View -- China deploys cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China deploys cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea
  
• China's military attacks US pilots in Djibouti with high-grade blinding lasers
  

****
**** China deploys cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea
****


Chinese warship in South China Sea, April 12, 2018 (Getty)

China has once again escalated its massive military occupation of the
South China Sea by deploying offensive anti-ship cruise missiles and
surface-to-air missiles systems. The missiles are being deployed on
the artificial islands that China constructed in violation of
international law, as the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration in the Hague ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal.

According to military analyst Gregory Poling, it means that
China will soon be deploying warplanes to the area:

<QUOTE>"This should be seen as China crossing an important
threshold. Missile platforms present a clear offensive threat.
[The missile deployment] is a pretty clear threat to the other
claimants and furthers China's goal of establishing complete
control over the water and airspace of the South China
Sea."<END QUOTE>

Even before this latest deployment, Navy Admiral Philip S. Davidson
told the Senate that China already has the military power to control
the entire South China Sea, and only war would be able to stop this:

<QUOTE>"China's development of forward military bases in the
South China Sea began in December 2013 when the first dredger
arrived at Johnson Reef. Through 2015, China used dredging efforts
to build up these reefs and create manmade islands, destroying the
reefs in the process. Since then, China has constructed clear
military facilities on the islands, with several bases including
hangars, barracks, underground fuel and water storage facilities,
and bunkers to house offense and defensive kinetic and non-kinetic
systems. These actions stand in direct contrast to the assertion
that President Xi made in 2015 in the Rose Garden when he
commented that Beijing had no intent to militarize the South China
Sea. Today these forward operating bases appear complete. The only
thing lacking are the deployed forces.

Once occupied, China will be able to extend its influence
thousands of miles to the south and project power deep into
Oceania. The PLA will be able to use these bases to challenge
U.S. presence in the region, and any forces deployed to the
islands would easily overwhelm the military forces of any other
South China Sea-claimants. In short, China is now capable of
controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with
the United States."<END QUOTE>

As Davidson points out, China has repeatedly lied and hid its true
intentions. Originally, the artificial islands were going to be for
tourists and scientists, which was a lie. Then the military
installations would be purely defensive, which was another lie. And
now they're part of a massive militarization in anticipation, when
preparation has been completed, to launch a full-scale war on America
and its allies.

According to an article last month in Chinese media, China is
close to announcing how much of each country's territory it
plans to annex:

<QUOTE>"A precise continuous line will split the Gulf of
Tonkin between China and Vietnam, go south into waters claimed by
Malaysia, take a U-turn to the north along the west coast of the
Philippines and finish at the southeast of Taiwan."<END QUOTE>

China has also been increasingly threatening an belligerent with
Vietnam, Japan and Australia, by demanding that they respect China's
illegal sovereignty claims. China has also been increasingly military
threatening to Taiwan, and may be close to a military invasion.

China has repeatedly hidden its intentions, and will continue to do so
until it's prepared to launch its attack. China is following exactly
the same path that the Nazis followed. Xi Jinping's "Socialism with
Chinese Characteristics" is the same as Hitler's National Socialism.
Like the Nazis, the Chinese believe that they're a Master Race that
will conquer the world. They'd have to be crazy to believe that they
could succeed at that, but the Chinese are crazy.

I frequently like to quote Friedrich Nietzsche, who said, "Insanity in
individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and
epochs, it is the rule." The Chinese will not be the Master Race that
rules the world. Instead, they'll do exactly what the Nazis did --
bring destruction and catastrophe to themselves and the world.
CNBC and The Diplomat and Newsweek (20-Apr) and US Senate (PDF, 17-Apr) and South China Morning Post (22-Apr)

Related Articles:

• China 'prepares for war' with massive naval/air force drills in South China Sea (29-Mar-2018)
  
  
• How China would lose a war with the United States (22-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  

****
**** China's military attacks US pilots in Djibouti with high-grade blinding lasers
****


Opening ceremony of China's military base in Djibouti, August 1, 2017 (AFP)

China's belligerent military actions in the South China Sea are being
repeated as well in the horn of Africa.

Chinese military personnel are using high-grade blinding lasers to
target American pilots and American military crews flying over
Djibouti in northeast Africa (the horn of Africa), according to the
Pentagon.

There were several incidents in the past several weeks. No one has
lost his life, but several Americans have received eye injuries.

The Americans are stationed in Djibouti at the Camp Lemonnier naval
base which is the primary base of operations and logistics hub for
missions across Africa. It supports approximately 4,000 U.S., joint
and allied forces military and civilian personnel and defense
contractors.

Camp Lemonnier was built in 2001, but is now being challenged by a new
Chinese base in Djibouti, built in 2017. The US has formally
protested to China's government, and "requested" that China launch an
investigation of the situation.

As we reported last month,
there
is a parallel development in progress. Djibouti's strategic port at
the entrance to the Red Sea is the Doraleh Container Terminal. A
Dubai firm, DP World, had been operating the terminal since 2006, when
DP World had signed a 30 year contract.

In February, Djibouti seized control of the terminal, and abruptly
terminated the contract without notice. Next, Djibouti signed a
contract with Singapore-based Pacific International Lines (PIL), a
company that works with China Merchants Port Holdings, to operate the
terminal. So it appears that China is poised to take control
of the entire Djibouti seaport.

Whether in the South China Sea or Djibouti, China constantly lies and
hides its intentions. China has been attacking American pilots and
flight crews with high-powered lasers. We have to assume that this is
not some rogue Chinese soldier, but is actual policy of the Chinese
military, presumably to test out their laser systems in preparation
for war. CNN and Washington Examiner and Washington Post

Related Articles

• General warns of US security danger if China acquires Djibouti seaport (11-Mar-2018)
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China establishes its first foreign military base, in Djibouti (13-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague
Gregory Poling, Philip S. Davidson,
Xi Jinping, Adolf Hitler, Friedrich Nietzsche,
Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, National Socialism,
Djibouti, Camp Lemonnier, Doraleh Container Terminal,
DP World, Pacific International Lines, PIL

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(05-02-2018, 09:54 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 3-May-18 World View -- Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program
  
• Importance of 2003 Iraq War revealed by the Iranian intelligence coup
  

****
**** Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program
****


Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands next to a facsimile of the intelligence archive that Mossad had taken from a Tehran warehouse in January (Times of Israel)

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday revealed the
results of a massive intelligence coup by Israel's intelligence agency
Mossad.

Americans Hate Globalist Tyranny and Human Rights Tyranny.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-May-18 World View -- UAE troops and tanks deployed to Yemen's Socotra island in dispute with Saudi Arabia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Residents of Yemen's Socotra island protest UAE military deployment
  
• Rift grows between Saudi Arabia and UAE in Yemen
  

****
**** Residents of Yemen's Socotra island protest UAE military deployment
****


Landscape of Socotra Island, with hundreds of plant species found only there. Pictured are 'dragon's blood trees' (Corbis/Daily Mail)

Residents of Socotra Island are reacting angrily and protesting about
the increasing presence of hundreds of troops, tanks, armored
transports and heavy equipment that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is
deploying on the island in a power struggle with Saudi Arabia.

Socotra Island belongs to Yemen, and is strategically located south of
Yemen where it oversees shipping traffic traveling from the Arabian
Sea, through the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea through the Suez Canal.

Socotra Island is similar to the Galapagos Islands, in that it's been
isolated for millions of years, allowing for the development of
hundreds of unique plant species found nowhere else on earth. Because
of its unique plant life, it has recently been declared a UNESCO World
Heritage Site.

Since 2015, Yemen has been the target of a proxy war Iran-backed
ethnic Houthis versus an Arab military coalition led by Saudi Arabia.
The war has become an example of the old African proverb: "When
elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers," in that the proxy war
has caused endless misery to the ordinary people of Yemen, resulting
in massive homelessness, starvation and cholera. The end of the war
seems to be nowhere in sight.

Now the 60,000 people of the Socotra Island are being pulled into the
war as well, with the UAE deployment. Many of these people are
furious at the UAE, and some are even accusing the UAE of deploying
the military in order to steal UNESCO-protected species of plants and
animals from the island. Middle East Eye and Independent (London) and Al Jazeera and Daily Mail (London, 25-Sep-2013)

****
**** Rift grows between Saudi Arabia and UAE in Yemen
****

The internationally recognized government of Yemen is led by President
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who has been hiding out in Saudi Arabia
because of the war with the Houthis. While the Houthis are backed by
Iran, Hadi's government is backed by an coalition led by Saudi Arabia.

As the war has continued for years with no end in sight, we reported in January,
that there has been
a split between coalition members Saudi Arabia and UAE. This has
resulted in military clashes between Saudi and UAE forces in the
southern port city of Aden.

The UAE has been backing the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a
separatist faction calling for the division of Yemen into Northern
Yemen and Southern Yemen, and claiming Aden as the capital city of
Southern Yemen.

The split between Saudi Arabia and UAE is potentially dangerous
because UAE is attempting to extend its influence well beyond its
borders into much of what the STC would like to be Southern Yemen.
UAE's move to exert control over Socotra is seen as a further move in
that direction. Anadolu (Turkey) and Middle East Eye (12-May-2017) and Press TV (Iran)

Related Articles:

• Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden (29-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition (03-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh killed in Houthi ambush (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen (21-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Yemen's president Saleh hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns (31-May-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Socotra Island, dragon's blood trees,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Iran,
Galapagos Islands, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi,
Aden, Southern Yemen, Southern Transitional Council, STC

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-May-18 World View -- Muslim vs Catholic violence surges again in Central African Republic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Muslim vs Catholic violence surges again in CAR capital city Bangui
  
• Angry protesters bring corpses to MINUSCA headquarters in Bangui
  
• The self-defense group 'The Force' gets revenge
  
• Central African Republic crisis civil war continues
  

****
**** Muslim vs Catholic violence surges again in CAR capital city Bangui
****


Aftermath of violence clashes in Bangui, CAR, on May 1 (Defense Post)

Sectarian Muslim versus Christian violence in the Central African
Republic (CAR) has continued with armed groups and marauding gangs,
both Muslim and Christian, almost nonstop across the country, since
the violence began in 2013. The capital city Bangui has been
relatively spared from violence in the last year, but this has changed
in the last month, with sectarian attacks killing dozens of people,
including attacks on a Catholic Church and a mosque.

The violence mostly took place in the PK5 district of Bangui. Bangui
is a mostly Catholic city, but PK5 is a mostly Muslim enclave within
Bangui. I wrote about PK5 in November 2015,
when Pope Francis visited Bangui, and particularly
paid a visit to the PK5 mosque.

The exact sequence of events isn't completely clear, but it appears that
the violence began early in April when MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeper
mission for CAR, joined local CAR security forces to launch a joint
security operation in PK5 to dismantle militia bases that were hiding
out in PK5.

MINUSCA is the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated
Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (CAR), launched
in April 2014 as a peacekeeping mission. Unfortunately, there has
been little peace for MINUSCA to keep. CAR is a huge country, and
pretty much the entire country is in flames, so MINUSCA has mostly
restricted itself to Bangui.

On April 10, the joint security operation turned into a bloody
massacre, as the security forces battled several armed groups in PK5,
known as the "self-defense forces," a name that reflects lack of
respect in the Muslim community for either MINUSCA or CAR's current
government. A total of 21 people were killed in a four-hour gun
battle between the security forces and the self-defense forces,
including a peacekeeper from Rwanda. 11 peacekeepers were wounded.
AFP (9-Apr)

****
**** Angry protesters bring corpses to MINUSCA headquarters in Bangui
****

On April 11, hundreds of angry demonstrators from PK5 held a peaceful
march in Bangui, and in a dramatic gesture, carried the corpses of 17
of the 21 who had been killed, and laid the corpses in front
of the MINUSCA mission headquarters. According to one demonstrator:

<QUOTE>"We, ourselves, no longer understand anything. Does
their mission consist of shooting at civilians?"<END QUOTE>

MINUSCA denied that civilians had been targeted, and said that only
criminal gangs had been targeted. A spokesman criticized the
demonstrators:

<QUOTE>"This is not an operation against communities and
specifically the Muslim community. The Muslim community asked our
troops to launch the operation and put an end to the criminal
activities.

We regret the fact that the bodies were being manipulated, while
they should be buried like every person who dies."<END QUOTE>

So-called Muslim "self-defense groups" have been springing up in PK5,
claiming to protect the Muslim civilians.

The relationship between MINUSCA and the self-defense groups has
become increasingly acrimonious. The self-defense groups claim that
MINUSCA is trying to drive the Muslims out of Bangui entirely, while
MINUSCA accuses them of extortion and violence against civilians.
Reuters (11-Apr) and The Defense Post

****
**** The self-defense group 'The Force' gets revenge
****

One of the PK5 self-defense groups, "The Force," got revenge on May 1
when gunmen attacked a service at a Catholic Church in Bangui. Some
2000 people had gathered for the service, when armed men threw
grenades and fired on the church. The attack lasted for hours,
killing a priest and at least 15 people from the church, and injuring
hundreds more.

After attacking the church, the perpetrators moved into neighboring
districts, looting shops and homes and attacking civilians. An
Evangelical church member was killed outside his home.

Various officials offered the usual rhetoric. The head of the
Christian Solidarity Worldwide, Mervyn Thomas said:

<QUOTE>"We extend our condolences to the parishioners of Our
Lady Fatima Church, to the family of Albert Toungoumale Baba and
to all those who have been bereaved.

The attack on a place of worship not only violates the right to
freedom of religion or belief, but also threatens the social
fabric of the community that religious leaders of all faiths have
worked to maintain throughout the recent conflict."<END QUOTE>

Amnesty International issued the usual near-boilerplate
statement:

<QUOTE>"Central African authorities and MINUSCA must send an
immediate and clear message to all armed groups and their allies
in CAR: No attack against civilians will be tolerated and all
those suspected of committing war crimes and other serious human
rights violations and abuses will be brought to
justice."<END QUOTE>

La Libre (Belgium) (Translation) and Premier (UK) and Amnesty International

****
**** Central African Republic crisis civil war continues
****

Despite Amnesty International's laughable rhetoric, "No attack against
civilians will be tolerated," CAR is in a generational crisis civil
war, and there's no end in sight.

The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias.

The peacekeepers succeeded, but then the Christian anti-balaka
militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in
2014, for revenge against the Selekas. Since then, both Christians
and Muslims have been committing atrocities, and it's become a
full-scale generational crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and
millions have been displaced.

Although the CAR war appears to be entirely sectarian, that isn't
entirely true. The Muslims are mostly herders, while the Christians
are mostly farmers, and this is the same kind of conflict between
herders and farmers that I've described in Central African Republic,
Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, and even America
in the 1800s. As population grows, the farmers accuse the herders of
letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the
farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers
put up fences, then the herders knock them down. In CAR, there have
been situations where Muslim and Christian farmers were united in
fighting Muslim herders.

As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely. ( "2-Oct-15 World View -- Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war"
)

Related Articles:

• UN Human Rights chief warns of 'genocide' and 'ethnic cleansing' in Central African Republic (11-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Central African Republic war morphs from religious to ethnic war (01-Mar-2017)
  
  
• New armed militia emerges in Central African Republic: Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R) (06-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Pope Francis to visit Central African Republic in middle of civil war (28-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR, Bangui,
PK5, Pope Francis, MINUSCA,
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission,
self-defense groups, The Force,
Christian Solidarity Worldwide, Mervyn Thomas,
François Bozizé, Michel Djotodia,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-May-18 World View -- Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blasphemy Barelvi sect

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blasphemy Barelvi sect
  
• Barelvi sect and Tehreek-e-Labaik political party surge in popularity
  

****
**** Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blasphemy Barelvi sect
****


Ahsan Iqbal (AP)

Pakistan’s interior minister Ahsan Iqbal was shot in the arm in an
assassination attempt as he spoke at a public meeting on Sunday. The
gunman was about to fire a second shot when he was overpowered by
people around him. It's believed that Iqbal will survive.

The gunman was Abid Hussain, 21, affiliated with the ultra-religious
Tehreek-e-Labaik party, which is the political party of the loony
Barelvi sect that believes that anyone accused of blasphemy should be
executed.

This was not the first physical attack on Iqbal this year. A man
threw a shoe at him while he was addressing a workers convention in
February. Iqbal wasn't hurt and refused to press charges, so the
police never investigated the motive of the perpetrator, or whether he
was also a member of Tehreek-e-Labaik. (One media source claims that
shoe-throwing as a form of insult is practiced in many countries, and
is mentioned in the Bible in Psalms 108:9.)

The usual questions are being asked about why security at Sunday's
event was so lax that a gunman was able to get into the event. The
reason being given is that the levels of terrorist violence in
Pakistan have been decreasing in the last two years, and so less
security is being used at events like this.

Federal elections will be held this summer, and the number of
political rallies will be increasing substantially. Sunday's
assassination attempt is raising concerns that there may be additional
terrorist attacks at this rallies as the election approaches.
Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Reuters and Pakistan Today (24-Feb) and Bible Study Tools

****
**** Barelvi sect and Tehreek-e-Labaik political party surge in popularity
****

In January 2011, Salman Taseer, the governor of Pakistan's Punjab
province, was shot and killed in broad daylight
on an Islamabad street by Malik Mumtaz Qadri, a
member of the "Elite Force" of bodyguards that were supposed to
protect him. Taseer was shot 27 times in the back. Qadri confessed
to the killing, and blamed it on Taseer's opposition to Pakistan's
blasphemy law, which forbids blaspheming Mohammed or Islam. When
Qadri arrived in court a few days later, Islamist lawyers showed him
with roses.

Allama Khadim Hussain Rizvi, the head of the Barelvi sect, was unknown
in Pakistan until he became Qadri's principal defender after the
Taseer assassination. Rizvi also became the principal defender of the
blasphemy law that Taseer had wanted to change, and organized public
support for the law.

The text of the blasphemy law, section 295-C of the Pakistan Penal
Code, is as follows:

<QUOTE>"Whoever by words, either spoken or written, or by
visible representation or by any imputation, innuendo, or
insinuation, directly or indirectly, defiles the sacred name of
the Holy Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) shall be punished
with death, or imprisonment for life, and shall also be liable to
fine."<END QUOTE>

This loony law has been massively abused in Pakistan. In Pakistan, if
you want to kill your neighbor, make up some reason why he violated
the blasphemy law, and then kill him, and you'll probably get away
with it.

Rizvi's aggressive support for the blasphemy law has made his Barelvi
sect increasingly popular, and he was able to exhibit his power
forcefully in October of last year. The government made a minor
textual change to a government oath, and a mob of people belonging to
the ehreek-e-Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah of Pakistan (TLYR or TLYRAP)
political party, coming from the Barelvi sect, were able to paralyze
multiple cities across Pakistan, with major roads blocked by a mobs of
tens of thousands of Islamists in sit-ins, escalating into clashes
with thousands of police.

After weeks of paralysis, the Barelvi TYRAP party scored an enormous
victory by forcing the government to completely capitulate to their
demands. These demands included resignations of top government
officials who made the text change, or who might have known about it.

Barelvi TYRAP party has been gaining in popularity, and elections will
be held this summer. Sunday's attempted assassination has raised
concerns that Pakistan's loony blasphemy laws will be used to incite
move violence, as well as to create a popular movement. The Nation (Pakistan, 18-Nov-2017) and Eurasia Review and The Nation (Pakistan, 18-Nov-2017)

Related Articles

• History of blasphemy laws in UK, Ireland and Pakistan (20-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated (05-Jan-2011)
  
  
• Pakistan government totally capitulates to hardline Islamist TLYRAP Barelvi sect mob (29-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Pakistan unexpectedly executes murderer of liberal politician Salman Taseer (01-Mar-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Islamabad,
Ahsan Iqbal, Abid Hussain,
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah of Pakistan,
TLYR, TLYRAP, Barelvi sect, Salman Taseer, Malik Mumtaz Qadri,
Allama Khadim Hussain Rizvi

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-May-18 World View -- Cambodia's dictatorial Hun Sen forces sale of independent Phnom Penh Post

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cambodia's dictatorial Hun Sen forces sale of independent Phnom Penh Post
  
• Phnom Penh Post had a combative relationship with Hun Sen
  

****
**** Cambodia's dictatorial Hun Sen forces sale of independent Phnom Penh Post
****


Phnom Penh Post on November 13, 2017 (Reuters)

Cambodia's last independent newspaper, the Phnom Penh Post, is in
crisis after the editor-in-chief was fired for refusing to take down
an article critical of the new owner, and several senior reporters
subsequently resigned after being ordered to take down the same
article.

Hun Sen, Cambodia's leader for 33 years, has become increasingly
dictatorial since the opposition political party, the Cambodia
National Rescue Party (CNRP) almost won the 2013 election, and has
become increasingly popular since then. With another election
scheduled for July of this year, Hun Sen has solved the problem by
arresting CNRP leaders and jailing them on phony charges, and even
getting the Supreme Court to declare the CNRP to be an illegal
political party. In addition, Hun Sen has been jailing protesters,
and shutting down media sources not controlled by the government.

The weekend sale of the Phnom Penh Post is the latest example of Hun
Sen's dictatorial takeover. The Cambodian government forced the
previous owner to sell by imposing an enormous $3.9 million tax bill
on the paper. The only other independent newspaper in the country,
the Cambodian Daily, was forced to shut down last year after receiving
a $6.3 million tax bill.

An announcement on Saturday said that the Phnom Penh Post had been
sold to a Malaysian investor, Sivakumar Ganapathy, executive director
of the Malaysia firm Asia PR.

Sivakumar's first act as owner was to issue a statement saying that
the newspaper would remain independent.

But then Sivakumar's next act as owner was to demand that the
editor-in-chief take down an article posted on Sunday detailing the
sale and Sivakumar's background, and then fire him for refusing.

Then Sivakumar fired the editor-in-chief, and when he demanded of the
other senior editors to take the article down, there was a mass
resignation.

As of Monday evening ET, the article still has not been taken down, and I was still able to
access it. (Perhaps after all the senior reporters left, there was no
one left with a password to the servers.)

The article described numerous examples of Sivakumar's close
relationships with Hun Sen and the Cambodian government, suggesting
that Sivakumar might be controlled by Hun Sen. AFP and Phnom Penh Post (6-May) and Australian Broadcasting and BBC

****
**** Phnom Penh Post had a combative relationship with Hun Sen
****

As an example of other articles that might have triggered Hun Sen's
decision to make sure that the Phnom Penh Post would become
government-controlled, an article last week described Hun Sen's "catch
and release policy." The way it works is that opposition figures are
arrested on phony charges, kept in jail for as many months or years as
necessary, and then released just in time to achieve some objective.

For example, an opposition politician Bun Chhay was jailed on August 4
of last year, supposedly on some decade old drug charges, but just
when it appeared he would pose a legitimate political challenge. Then
on September 3 Sourn Serey Ratha, head of the tiny Khmer Power Party,
was arrested over a Facebook post criticizing the government’s recent
military stand-off with Laos.

This cleared away the only viable competitors to Hun Sen's reelection,
but the arrests caused an international uproar, with threats by the US
and the EU to withdraw aid. According to the Phnom Penh Post article,
the "catch and release" strategy was completed last week:

<QUOTE>"Last week, the EU publicly acknowledged that it would
be taking the extraordinary step of sending a team to review its
General Scheme of Preferences with Cambodia – raising questions
about the future of tariff-free access to one Cambodia’s largest
trading partners. The pressure was reaching a head.

Days later, Nhek Bun Chhay walked out of jail.

“While it would seem that the [Cambodian People’s Party] has the
upcoming election neatly sewed up, perhaps Hun Sen views him as a
figure who can help diversify the electoral field just enough to
gain some international credibility, while remaining too marginal
to pose any real threat to the CPP’s power,” Strangio
said."<END QUOTE>

Whether the EU will be fooled by this remains to be seen.

However, placing new sanctions on Cambodia will likely not have much
effect. Cambodia is becoming China's most important political ally in
the region. Already, between 2011 and 2015 Chinese firms funneled
nearly $5 billion in loans and investment to Cambodia, mostly for
major infrastructure projects, while making no demands on how Hun Sen
runs the country. Like Pakistan, Cambodia is expected to be an
obedient ally of China, and to follow China's policy directives in
return for money. Phnom Penh Post (2-May) and Reuters and Reporters Without Borders and Nikkei Asia Review and The Diplomat (15-Jan)

Related Articles

• Cambodia's Hun Sen threatens violence at protesters at ASEAN meeting (18-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun Sen can be reelected unopposed (17-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) leaders may be inspired by Pol Pot's Cambodian 'Killing Fields' genocide (29-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Cambodia bans all sales of sand to Singapore (20-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple (17-Feb-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cambodia, Phnom Penh Post, Hun Sen,
Cambodia National Rescue Party, CNRP, Cambodia Daily,
Sivakumar Ganapathy, Asia PR, Khmer Power Party, Sourn Serey Ratha,
China, Pakistan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-May-18 World View -- Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements
  
• Theresa May's two delusional proposals - Customs Partnership and Maximum Facilitation
  

****
**** Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements
****


Boris Johnson and Theresa May (PA)

Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson on Monday declared that the
proposal by prime minister Theresa May to resolve Brexit issues was
"crazy."

This has caused quite a sensation, because a high level cabinet
minister is not supposed to openly criticize a major policy of the
prime minister unless he wants to be fired.

The policy in question, called a "Customs Partnership," is indeed
delusional, but in today's highly polarized world, where a man can
lose his career for saying the wrong thing about whether he supports
Trump, then you have to be willing to support even delusional policies
if you want to keep your job.

In this case, however, May's spokesman said that the prime minister
had "full confidence" in Johnson, and told officials "to do more work"
on the proposal.

I've written about Brexit issues many times since the Brexit
referendum passed almost a year ago, on June 23 2017, and the
intractable, insoluble problem is always the same: Keeping a
"frictionless border" between Northern Ireland and (Southern) Republic
of Ireland, despite the fact that Northern Ireland will be part of the
UK, and Ireland will be part of the EU.

Everyone says that there must be a frictionless border, so that
people, trucks and goods can continue to flow freely back and forth
between the two. The current open border was the result of the Good
Friday agreement of 1999 that ended years of "The Troubles," bloody
fighting between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (the Catholic
Republicans) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders
(the Protestant Unionists).

Today there are a lot of people who genuinely fear that fighting will
resume in full force. This is not a trivial concern, in that there's
still a great deal of hatred between some Gaelics and some English,
and there are still walls separating neighborhoods of the Northern
Ireland city of Ulster, where there are still occasional flashes of
violence. (See "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"
)

Officially, Britain is scheduled to leave the EU in March 2019. There
are huge unsolved problems having to do with trade, migration,
citizens' rights, and Ireland for which solutions are nowhere in
sight. Ireland and the EU are demanding a proposal on the Ireland
"frictionless border" by June, and it will not be met.

Other deadlines are approaching as well. Concerns are widespread that
the Brexit process is collapsing into a huge, unmanageable mess.

And why wasn't Boris Johnson fired? For that matter, why hasn't
Theresa May lost her job as well. The answer, according to many
analysts I hear, is that nobody else wants these jobs, under the
current circumstances. BBC and Reuters and Express (London) and RTE (Ireland)

****
**** Theresa May's two delusional proposals - Customs Partnership and Maximum Facilitation
****

Any Brexit proposal by Britain also has to be approved by the EU27,
the 27 nations of the EU excluding the UK. Theresa May has two
proposals both of which are delusional for many reasons, not the least
of which is that there is no chance that the EU27 will approve either
of them. But the British politicians and the British press keep
talking about them without even considering whether the EU will
approve them.

One proposal is called the "Customs Partnership." Businesses shipping
goods from foreign countries into Britain will be charged tariffs
according to EU rules. The goods will then be tracked, and if they
stay in Britain, then the businesses can claim a rebate of any
overpayment. If not, then Britain forwards the tariff to the EU.

This leaves the Irish border frictionless, since goods can flow across
the border freely, since the tariff has already been paid.

This is the plan that Boris Johnson is calling "crazy," because
Britain would still be bound by EU rules that the whole Brexit plan
was supposed to free them of:

<QUOTE>"It’s totally untried and would make it very, very
difficult to do free trade deals.

If you have the new customs partnership, you have a crazy system
whereby you end up collecting the tariffs on behalf of the EU at
the UK frontier.

If the EU decides to impose punitive tariffs on something the UK
wants to bring in cheaply there’s nothing you can do.

That’s not taking back control of your trade policy, it’s not
taking back control of your laws, it’s not taking back control of
your borders and it’s actually not taking back control of your
money either, because tariffs would get paid centrally back to
Brussels."<END QUOTE>

He said that the plan would create "a whole new web of bureaucracy,"
and would not meet the key test of Britain "taking back control" from
Brussels. In other words, the Customs Partnership would defeat the
whole purpose of Brexit.

Theresa May's second proposal is called "Maximum Facilitation."

Shipping firms would operate as "trusted traders" so they can move
goods freely as EU tariff is only paid when goods arrive in
destination country. Goods would be electronically tracked and
pre-cleared with tax authorities. There would be a frictionless
border in Ireland, because goods would move freely back and forth, and
would be tracked by means of some yet to be developed technology.

The EU has dismissed this proposal as "magical thinking," because it
assumes that "trusted traders" can be trusted, and because the
required technology is not possible in the foreseeable future.
Daily Mail (London) and The Week (UK) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations (17-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• The issue of Ireland's border threatens to collapse EU-UK Brexit negotiations. (28-Nov-2017)
  
  
• European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Theresa May, Boris Johnson,
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, The Troubles, Gaelics,
Customs Partnership, Maximum Facilitation, magical thinking

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni

• European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni
  
• Brexit and other European fiascos in diplomacy
  

****
**** European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni
****


South Koreans watching tv admire Kim Jong-un's highly fashionable haircut

It is true that the barycenter of the world is moving to the east, not
only economically but above all politically. Our politicians would do
well to pay attention to how high-level politics is done in the east,
since they would learn something. The most recent masterful lesson of
international diplomacy comes from the sadly famous demilitarized zone
(DMZ), the scar of the cold war that runs along the 38th parallel and
which divides the Korean peninsula in two.

The dictator Kim Jong-un, considered crazy and bloody until four
months ago, took part in a historic summit in South Korea, still
'enemy' territory, and where neither his father nor his grandfather
ever set foot. He did it with all the honors reserved for a great head
of state. The South Korean president Moon Jae-in, who has spent the
last twenty years to get this meeting, is the country's spokesman.
Meanwhile, Kim has used every political strategy, including the
diplomacy of the Olympics, to get closer to the common goal: the peace
agreement between the two nations.

The peace between these two countries -- which for three thousand
years have been a unique geographical and linguistic expression, a
single culture, a sovereign nation with the same people -- will open
the doors to economic and commercial cooperation. The model will be
that of the old European Common Market: exploiting the economic
interdependencies and the resources of both to modernize the North and
produce well-being throughout the peninsula. The union has the
potential to give life to an economy much stronger than Japan's.

North and South, therefore, have common interests that they can pursue
jointly. The obstacles are many. First of all, even if both have
signed a peace armistice, the two countries are still at war. The
People's Republic of North Korea is a buffer state for China, while
South Korea is a very important US military base in the Pacific. In
short, to get to shake hands on the 38th parallel and plant the tree
of peace the two Korean leaders have had to convince Washington and
Beijing to let them do it.

****
**** Brexit and other European fiascos in diplomacy
****

If we compare this lesson of international diplomacy with European
post-electoral fiascos -- the last nation to prove incapable of
forming a government on the basis of electoral results is Italy -- and
animosities within the European Union, for example, Brexit, we realize
why the axis of the world is moving to the east. To complete the sad
picture of the decadence of politics in Europe, there are relations of
subjugation with Washington. What about Macron crossing the ocean to
present to Trump the European iron will to go ahead with the agreement
with Iran and then change his mind twenty four hours after landing?
Remarkable is the difference with President Moon (whose wife does not
dress Chanel like the first French and American ladies), Moon is a
politician of substance, who has clear ideas about the future of his
nation, is not a populist.

Of course there is always Angela Merkel who clearly told Trump -- who
continued to bomb the world with twitter triumphalists on the Korean
summit presented as a creation -- not to trust Kim Jong-un. Yes,
Merkel is a clever politician, but she has to play in a team of wives
and has no interlocutor to work with seriously.

Here are some forecasts: Trump and Kim will meet, possibly in
June. The peace agreement between the two leaders will be endorsed by
the White House, at which point they will begin to work at the
ceremony for the signing of the treaty, which will take place before
November 2018, namely the mid-term US elections.

Trump will be credited with all the glory but will Kim and Moon let
him do that? The North Korean dictator seems less inclined than the
South Korean president to stroke Trump's ego. But he should be very
careful, as the US president may walk away from the summit and Kim and
Moon would end up with no deal. But if things go according to plans,
Kim will reiterate the commitment to freeze nuclear warheads and
details of denuclearization will be postponed to another summit, which
will take place in 2019. Meanwhile, North and South Korea will quietly
start to cooperate economically, despite international sanctions.
Southern investors will therefore have priority access to the process
of modernizing the north.

In Europe the bickering on Brexit will not disappear. The tensions
between the right-wing populism of Eastern Europe and Brussels will
increase, risking the implosion of the whole structure. Italy will
most likely revive, but the results will not be better. In short, the
scenarios are not at all positive. The last detail: Kim's haircut will
continue to be more and more fashionable, while Merkel's will be
considered passé.

Loretta Napoleoni is an Italian economist and analyst, and author
of the 2018 book, North Korea: The Country We Love To Hate[b]


[b]KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Loretta Napoleoni, North Korea, South Korea,
Kim Jong-un, Moon Jae-in, Brexit,
Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-May-18 World View -- Killing of two priests escalates farmer-herder conflict in Benue State, Nigeria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Killing of two priests escalates farmer-herder conflict in Benue State, Nigeria
  
• News of revenge attacks by farmers criticized as fake news
  
• Israel, Iran and Syria exchange fire in first direct military confrontation
  

****
**** Killing of two priests escalates farmer-herder conflict in Benue State, Nigeria
****


Nigerian Police

A prototypical conflict between herders and farmers in central Nigeria
has suddenly escalated in a sectarian manner with the killing of two
Catholic priests, Joseph Gor and Felix Tyolaha, and other worshippers
on April 24. The attack occurred in the town of Mbalom, just south of
Makurdi, which is the capital city of Benue State in Nigeria.

I've written many times that many ethnic wars are based on fundamental
clashes between farmer tribes and herder tribes. In country after
country, there a classic and recurring battle between herders and
farmers, I've described in Central African Republic, Nigeria, Rwanda,
Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s.
The farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops,
while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant
for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock
them down.

In Nigeria's Benue State, the herders are mostly Muslims from the
Fulani tribe. Farmers are mostly Christians from a number of tribes,
including the Tiv, Mambila and Bachama tribes. The continuing
tit-for-tat violence between herders and farmers in Benue State has
already killed thousands of people and left tens of thousands
homeless,

So the April 24 murder of the priests and worshippers was immediately
blamed by the public and the media on Muslim Fulani herders, but to
this day there is no solid evidence that the gunmen were Fulanis. In
fact, the assailants took money, valuables and communion wine,
suggesting that the motive was robbery rather than gaining farmland.
Vanguard (Nigeria, 24-Apr) and Anglican News

****
**** News of revenge attacks by farmers criticized as fake news
****

Three days later, a Nigeria newspaper the Daily Trust reported
on revenge attacks by Christian farmers from the Tiv tribe
on ethnic Hausas in the Benue State capital city Makurdi.

A Hausa community leader was quoted as wondering why Tiv farmers would
target Hausa people, since they were not the herders who allegedly
attacked the priests:

<QUOTE>"Last Tuesday, we saw our people running
helter-skelter in the city that they brought the corpses of Church
priests that were killed at Dukwayango village and then suddenly
Tiv youth started attacking our people. As I am talking to you
they have killed over eight people, over 20 sustained injuries and
several shops were razed while over eleven people were missing.

We are not farmers, we don’t rear animals. We are just
traders. These things happened in villages and in the bushes. Why
are Tiv youth killing our people?"<END QUOTE>

The chief Imam of a mosque in Makurdi told the BBC Hausa service that
he personally saw the corpses of 27 victims at the teaching hospital
in Makurdi. He said while many were injured, some were burnt.

However, some community groups are condemning as lies the claims
that Tiv farmers attacked Hausa people in Benue, and say
that the purpose of the lies is to promote sectarian
violence:

<QUOTE>"It is a tissue of lies and falsehood concocted to
profile the Tiv youth in bad light.

We consider the said story as part of the well planned agenda by
our traducers to change the narrative in the state. ... The same
report went on to claim that more than 10 Muslims were killed and
11 others missing in the state as from the reprisals following the
attack on St. Ignatius Quasi Parish in Mbalom. ...

It is completely fake news. The statement by the Police further
said such was nothing but falsehood, believably meant to cause
break down of law and order in the State."<END QUOTE>

All that's really certain is that ethnic violence in central Nigeria,
which has been growing for several years, continues to grow. Daily Trust (Nigeria, 27-Apr) and Independent (Nigeria)
and Guardian (Nigeria)

Related Articles

• Tit-for-tat violence between Nigeria's Muslim herders and Christian farmers becomes more serious (11-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Violence in Nigeria grows over clashes between herders and farmers (03-Nov-2017)
  
  
• 9-Mar-10 News - Muslims in revenge massacre against Nigeria Christians (09-Mar-2010)
  
  
• Clashes in Jos, Nigeria, pit Christians against Muslims (24-Feb-2011)
  

****
**** Israel, Iran and Syria exchange fire in first direct military confrontation
****

As this is being written on Wednesday evening ET, there is news of
missile and artillery exchanges in Syria and in and around the
Golan Heights, as well as airstrikes by Israel's air force.

Israel has struck Iranian missile depots and other Iranian
military targets in Syria several times in the last few weeks,
promising to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from building up a force
capable of attacking Syria.

For several weeks, Israel has been stepping up its military
forces on the border with Lebanon, in anticipation of a
retaliatory strike on Israel by Iran. That Iranian
attack has apparently happened, and there have been several
hours of artillery exchanges over the Golan Heights that
are continuing at this writing.

The Israeli attacks on Syria have been more intense than they were in
the past. There are reports that the city of Damascus is without
power. At least 20 heavy rockets have been fired from Syria at
Israeli forces, but there are no reports yet of Israeli damage or
casualties. Reuters and Washington Post and AFP and BBC

Related Articles:

• Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program (03-May-2018)
  
  
• Israeli warplanes strike Syrian weapons site, as UN confirms al-Assad's Sarin use (08-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus (28-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Benue State, Makurdi, Mbalom,
Joseph Gor, Felix Tyolaha, Fulani tribe, Hausa tribe,
Tiv tribe, Mambila tribe, Bachama tribe,
Israel, Iran, Syria, Golan heights, Lebanon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe