Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

CH86 Wrote:> More globalist tyranny, Assad Hasn't attacked The US, Europe or
> Israel. Boomers refuse to acknowledge the existence of
> international borders. The Law is on Assad's side. Syria has it's
> own laws, the rebels have renounced allegiance to the Syrian state
> and therefore the state has no further obligation to rebel
> populations.

(04-14-2018, 10:13 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Its obvious that Boomer Ideologues Like JohnX, Pbrower, and Eric
> would only be satisfied if Assad is dead or in a prison cell,
> what's with Boomers and their Irrational Hostility to any outcome
> in Syria where Assad remains in power?

Guest Wrote:> So let me get this straight. It is acceptable for Assad to commit
> genocide because it is within Syrian borders and Syrian law
> permits it. Did I get that right?

[pbrower2a]

(04-14-2018, 11:09 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

CH86 Wrote:>   More globalist tyranny, Assad Hasn't attacked The US, Europe or
>   Israel. Boomers refuse to acknowledge the existence of
>   international borders. The Law is on Assad's side. Syria has it's
>   own laws, the rebels have renounced allegiance to the Syrian state
>   and therefore the state has no further obligation to rebel
>   populations.

(04-14-2018, 10:13 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Its obvious that Boomer Ideologues Like JohnX, Pbrower, and Eric
>   would only be satisfied if Assad is dead or in a prison cell,
>   what's with Boomers and their Irrational Hostility to any outcome
>   in Syria where Assad remains in power?  

Guest Wrote:>   So let me get this straight.  It is acceptable for Assad to commit
>   genocide because it is within Syrian borders and Syrian law
>   permits it. Did I get that right?

1. When someone commits crimes against humanity he offends the whole of humanity. India had no connection to Rwanda when it arrested and extradited Frouald Karamira when it found him in Mumbai, This man, one of the loudest proponents of mass murder in the Rwandan genocide, advocated it over state-controlled Radio of a Thousand Hills. The Indian government knew what would happen to him; he would be executed. I am anti-communist because of the Commie body count in practically every Red regime. This is not globalism. I find the Cambodian horror under Pol Pot an affront to mu values in the same sense that the Holocaust is. Uf you think this simply 'national pride', then I recognize that Americans participated in horrors against American First Peoples and in the Atlantic slave trade.

There is no excuse. I probably am related to Holocaust perpetrators because of much of my ancestry being German. I denounce those relatives should I find them  (and I have no desire to seek them).

If it takes some 'globalist tyranny' to suppress war crimes, then let it happen!

2. I can't speak for my other two Boomers, but at this point I see nothing wrong with Bashir Assad that a well-tied rope and a seven-foot drop would not solve at this stage. I can now put him in the same category as Pol Pot, Saddam Hussein, Haile Mengistu, Jean Kabanda, Efrain Rios-Montt, Slobodan Milosevic, and Idi Amin -- damnable for their crimes. Jean Kabanda, President of Rwanda when the Rwanda genocide broke out, is roughly my age. These perpetrators of genocide can all roast in Hell  if they have yet to go there.

3. Do you remember the First Gulf War? The Soviet Union had its legitimate concerns about some of its technicians trapped in Iraq. As I recall some of the people who had long-standing disdain for Soviet foreign policy such as Senator Bob Dole made clear that those technicians would be released --- or else. 'Or else' had three letters attached -- K, G, and B -- under some circumstances in which the Soviet Union got a legitimate claim on him for crimes against the people of the Soviet Union. Perhaps the Soviet Union might be asked to participate in trials of key figures of the gangster regime, such as gassing the Kurds.

Yes, it is easy to get away with genocide if one still has an army, navy, and air force that protects one from international judgment. Take that away and one might be helpless. Until his regime collapses, Bashir Assad is safe. But after that? The best that he could hope for is the Hague Tribunals, where I expect that he would meet much the same fate as Slobodan Milosevich and Jean Kabanda. The Hague Tribunal has no death penalty available. Alternatives include a lynching in the wake of a revolution or some new government putting him on trial for his life.

4. Basic morality has no generational component. Murder, rape, theft, torture, and perjury have never been in style. There have been people who thought that they could get away with these because they are powerful enough to avoid judgment or clever enough to hide their crimes that they are never detected for such, but many who did so found out how wrong they were. If you don't want to do the time, then don't do the crime.

5. Advice to Cynic Hero: Get help! Mental illness is no more shameful than such organic diseases as diabetes and cancer. As one who needed help for dealing with circumstances that had me showing myself a suicide risk, I can assure you that the mental health profession can treat you with great kindness. I found that I had problems for which I was blameless, and that I could start over even at age 60.

You can do so, too. It will take effort on your part, but I can assure you that it will be well worth the effort. The potential of great shame comes from doing horrible things to yourself or others under distress that you might still be able to deal with.

If you are simply an Internet troll -- then find another life.

[Warren Dew]

John, I'm curious if the ZeroHedge reports of additional Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Syria are correct.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-14-2018, 05:46 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > John, I'm curious if the ZeroHedge reports of additional Israeli
> strikes on Iranian targets in Syria are correct.

The BBC correspondent in Beirut has been reporting for several hours
that loud explosions occurred near Aleppo, but the reports haven't
been confirmed. The ZeroHedge writer may be running ahead of his
skis, as the saying goes. We probably won't know for sure until
Sunday.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Apr-18 World View -- Iran, Hezbollah and Syria threaten retaliation against Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• American, British, French attack on Syria signals sharp change in Western policy
  
• Britain publishes its legal justification for military action
  
• Iran, Hezbollah and Syria threaten retaliation against Israel
  

****
**** American, British, French attack on Syria signals sharp change in Western policy
****


Audience for Saturday's speech by Hezbollah leader Nasrallah (Reuters)

As we reported on Friday evening,

the joint attack on Syrian targets by American, British and French
forces ended as quickly as it started. The attack was in retaliation
for the attack on April 7 by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on
civilians in Douma, using chemical weapons.

The attack occurred at 4 am Syrian time, and was over in minutes. 105
missiles were launched, striking three Syrian chemical weapons
targets. The military said that all missiles reached their target,
and denied Syrian claims that most (or any) were shot down.

The attack was "one and done," according to Secretary of
Defense James Mattis. However, Mattis and other US officials
have stated clearly that another attack will follow if al-Assad
uses chemical weapons again.

So America's message to Bashar al-Assad is pretty clear: "You may use
barrel bombs, missiles, gunfire, and any other conventional weapons on
neighborhoods, markets, schools and hospitals, and you may massacre
and kill as many women and children as you want, with no retribution.
Just don't use chemical weapons."

The targets and time of day of Saturday morning's attack were
carefully chosen so as to avoid civilian casualties, particularly
Russian casualties. The Russian military did not respond, and it was
clear that both the US and Russian side did everything possible to
avoid confronting each other.

However, the language used by Russia on Saturday was extremely
bitter and angry. And according to Pentagon spokesman
Dana White,

<QUOTE>"The Russian disinformation campaign has already
begun. There has been a 2000 per cent increase in Russian trolls
in the last 24 hours."<END QUOTE>

As someone who is attacked constantly by Russian trolls, this
is disheartening news.

At Saturday's UN Security Council meeting by Russia's ambassador
Vasily Nebenzya expressed deep anger:

<QUOTE>"The US and its allies continue to demonstrate
blatant disregard for international law. You are constantly
tempted by neocolonialism. You have nothing but disdain for the
UN charter, and the Security Council. As a pretext for
aggression, you mention the alleged use of chemical weapons in
Douma, but after an investigation by Russian experts, it was
proven unequivocally that no such attacks took
place."<END QUOTE>

The invocation of international law by Russia is really laughable,
as Russia has done everything from invading and annexing Crimea
to support the worst genocidal monster so far this century,
Bashar al-Assad, without getting approval for anything from the
UN Security Council, yet Russian officials become apoplectic
when the US or the West does anything to avoid their UNSC veto.

As I've been writing starting in 2011, Russia's president Vladimir
Putin adopted a policy of using the UN Security Council to take
control of US, Nato and Western foreign policy. Russia took any
military action it pleased without getting UNSC approval, but demanded
that any other country got UNSC approval for everything. By using its
UNSC veto, Russia could effectively control American foreign policy.

This Russian policy has been extremely successful for years, crippling
not only Western foreign policy, but the UN Security Council itself.
I believe that success reached its peak with the March 4 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia,
using a Russia-developed nerve
agent Novichok. The British public was incensed that Russia put
ordinary British citizens at risk by using Novichok in public, where
anyone could be affected, but Russia made matters worse when Russia's
president Vladimir Putin smirked and gave a sarcastic answer when a
BBC reporter asked about it.

This was following by a series of moronic claims by Russia, including
accusing Britain of poisoning the Skripals in order to embarrass
Russia. Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson gave a furious
response to these claims: "There is something in the kind of smug,
sarcastic response that we’ve heard that indicates their fundamental
guilt. They want to simultaneously deny it, yet at the same time to
glory in it."

The Skripal poisoning was an international tipping point, uniting
Britain and other nations to no longer tolerate Russia's
strategy to use the UNSC to cripple Western foreign policy.

That's why Russian ambassador Vasily Nebenzya and other Russian
officials are so bitterly angry. The policy they had successfully
used for years is now collapsing in front of them.

Further remarks by the Russians have the appearance of hysterical
desperation. There have been horrifying videos of al-Assad's April 7
chemical attack on Douma, but Nebenzya and other Russian officials are
claiming that the chemical attack didn't even occur. They claim that
the British government paid the "White Helmet" humanitarian workers in
Douma to stage the horrifying videos as a Hollywood production. One
gets the impression that the Russians as a nation are becoming
completely delusional.

Meanwhile, Syrians in Damascus were dancing in the streets on
Saturday, because the military strikes were not as bad as feared.
Guardian (Australia) and The Hill

Related Articles:

• The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack (12-Apr-2018)
  
  
• U.S., France, Britain launch Syria attack in retaliation for al-Assad's use of chemical weapons (14-Apr-2018)
  

****
**** Britain publishes its legal justification for military action
****

I've always believed that there was plenty of legal justification for
American and Western military intervention in Syria. After al-Assad
began targeting peaceful protesters in 2011, and particularly after he
massacred thousands of innocent women and children in a Palestinian
refugee camp in Latakia in August 2011, millions of Syrian citizens
began fleeing into neighboring countries, including over a million
reaching Europe. Any country has a responsibility to control its own
population, but al-Assad had essentially weaponized refugees. If
al-Assad can't control its own population, but instead uses
them as a weapon, then any target is justified in intervening in
the country.

In addition, al-Assad's attack on the Palestinian camp caused tens of
thousands of Sunni jihadists to travel from around the world to fight
al-Assad. These foreign jihadists formed the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), which has launched terror attacks on
other countries. Once again, if al-Assad can't control ISIS, then any
country threatened by ISIS is justified in intervening. In fact, the
US military intervention in Syria has succeeded in recapturing all
territory formerly occupied by ISIS, although ISIS is far from
completely defeated.

So the West certainly has plenty of justifications for military
intervention in Syria, but al-Assad's use of chemical weapons doubles
down on those justifications.

But in the end, the justification for this kind of military action has
less to do with international law, and more to do with domestic
politics. For that reason, the British government has published a
humanitarian justification policy paper for Saturday's military
action. Here's a brief summary:

The Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons is a war crime and a crime
against humanity.

Under international law, the UK may use force for humanitarian
intervention, provided that three conditions are met:

• Convincing evidence of extreme humanitarian distress on a
  large scale, requiring immediate and urgent relief;
  
• There is no practicable alternative to use of force, if lives are
  to be saved.
  
• The proposed use of force must be necessary and proportionate to
  the aim of relief of humanitarian suffering,

The policy paper goes on to explain why all three conditions have been
met. BBC and
UK Government

****
**** Iran, Hezbollah and Syria threaten retaliation against Israel
****

Although the debate over Saturday's airstrikes has
dominated news coverage since the April 7 chemical attack,
there's a completely different parallel issue in play, which
may be even more dangerous.

On Monday last week, Israel attacked Syria's T4 airbase (Tayfur airport),
because the airbase is
considered a threat to Israel. Apparently seven Iranians were killed
in the attack.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah says that the attack put
Israel into direct combat with Iran:

<QUOTE>"You made a historic mistake and a great folly which
brings you into direct confrontation with Iran.

This is the first time in 7 years that the Israelis have
deliberately killed Iranian revolutionary guards. Attacking T-4
airport is a pivotal incident in the history of the region that
can’t be ignored.

Iran is not a weak or a cowardly state, and you know that well.
The Israeli have false calculation. You will have to face the
Islamic Republic of Iran.

All those thousands of terrorists in Syria do not concern the
Israeli while they have every kind of weapons, however, they are
afraid of just few revolutionary guards there."<END QUOTE>

According to the BBC, Syria, Iran and Russia are all expressing quiet
relief that Saturday's missile attack was considerably more limited
than was expected. But it did evoke a sense of greater defiance, with
the three entities calling themselves the "Axis of Resistance," and
referring to Western powers as "paper tigers," a phrase used by
China's Mao Zedong in the 1960s to describe the United States.

It's generally believed that Iran must retaliate for Israel's
airstrike, killing several Iranian revolutionary guards. This
could be a far more dangerous confrontation than even
Saturday's missile strikes.

Long time readers are aware that Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews against
Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Events appear to be moving very quickly now. Al Manar (Hezbollah) and
Reuters and Al-Jazeera

Related Articles:

• Israel braces for attack from Iran in retaliation for Sunday's airstrike (12-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Iran,
France, Britain, Syria, Damascus, Homs, Vasily Nebenzya,
James Mattis, Nikki Haley, Dana White, Vladimir Putin,
Boris Johnson, Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal, Novichok,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

Quote:The targets and time of day of Saturday morning's attack were
carefully chosen so as to avoid civilian casualties, particularly
Russian casualties. The Russian military did not respond, and it was
clear that both the US and Russian side did everything possible to
confront each other.

Did you mean, "not to confront each other"?

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-14-2018, 10:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

Quote:The targets and time of day of Saturday morning's attack were
carefully chosen so as to avoid civilian casualties, particularly
Russian casualties. The Russian military did not respond, and it was
clear that both the US and Russian side did everything possible to
confront each other.

Did you mean, "not to confront each other"?

Thanks for the correction.

[Warren Dew]

(04-14-2018, 07:50 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(04-14-2018, 05:46 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   John, I'm curious if the ZeroHedge reports of additional Israeli
>   strikes on Iranian targets in Syria are correct.

The BBC correspondent in Beirut has been reporting for several hours
that loud explosions occurred near Aleppo, but the reports haven't
been confirmed.  The ZeroHedge writer may be running ahead of his
skis, as the saying goes.  We probably won't know for sure until
Sunday.

At this point it seems clear that a big Hezbollah/Iran weapon warehouse cooked off, but it's still not clear whether it was initiated by an air attack or something else.  If it was an air attack by Israel, the lack of news coverage is likely exactly what they want.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Apr-18 World View -- Israel's top court orders 207 African migrants to be released from jail

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel's top court orders 207 African migrants to be released from jail
  
• Uganda first agrees to accept Israel's African migrants, then backs down
  

****
**** Israel's top court orders 207 African migrants to be released from jail
****


African migrants leaving prison on Sunday, after being freed by Israel's Supreme Court (Times of Israel)

Israel's Interior Ministry on Sunday released 207 African migrants
from Saharonim prison in southern Israel, by order of Israel's Supreme
Count. The migrants were mostly from Eritrea and Sudan. According to
the government, they were "infiltrators," or "illegal immigrants."

Israel's government had wanted to deport them to another country, but
were unable to reach any agreement with a country. It was not
announced what countries the government was negotiating with, but it's
believed they were Rwanda and Uganda. The court had given the
government until Sunday to reach agreement with another country, or
else release the migrants from prison, and that's what happened.

Earlier this month, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
announced a major new policy for dealing with 16,250 of the migrants.
Under a deal with the UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR), 16,250 African
migrants under threat of being either jailed or deported to another
African country, would instead be absorbed and resettled into a
Western country. The deal also specifies that another 16,250
similarly threated migrants would be permitted to remain in Israel as
"temporary residents."

Netanyahu originally said that the agreement was a "landmark
achievement," allowing 16,250 migrants to be taken to "developed
countries like Canada, or Germany and Italy." Canada announced that
it would accept some migrants under the deal, but Germany and Italy
announced that they were not part of the deal and hadn't been
consulted. The deal was also opposed by many politicians in Israel,
because it granted legal status to 16,250 "infiltrators." Within
hours, Netanyahu was forced to suspend the deal entirely.

****
**** Uganda first agrees to accept Israel's African migrants, then backs down
****

For months there have been unconfirmed reports that Benjamin Netanyahu
was negotiating with Rwanda and Uganda to accept Israel's African
migrants, mostly from Eritrea and Sudan, in return for some
unspecified payment. Netanyahu recently confirmed that negotiations
with Rwanda had been going on for two years. However, under enormous
pressure from pro-migrant activists both inside and outside Israel,
Rwanda was finally forced to withdraw from the agreement.

Until Friday, Uganda consistently denied that a deportation deal with
Israel exists, despite reports that it was accepting migrants deported
from Israel.

On Friday, Musa Ecweru, Uganda's state minister of disaster
preparedness and refugees, indicated that Uganda was ready to accept
500 migrants from Israel. According to Ecweru:

<QUOTE>"The State of Israel working with other refugees’
managing organizations has requested Uganda to allow about 500
Eritreans and Sudanese refugees to relocate to Uganda. The
Government and Ministry are positively considering the request.

We already have millions of refugees in Uganda from Somalia,
Ethiopia so the few from Israel won’t be a problem to Uganda as a
third party country.

We are slow but very sure on the issue of refugees that we
host. To my knowledge, no refugees from Israel have come in
yet. The ones coming are going to the settlement."<END QUOTE>

However, on Sunday, Netanyahu's special emissary to Uganda returned
home after 11 days of negotiations with Uganda, apparently without a
deal on migrants. Independent (Uganda) and Times of Israel

Related Articles:

• Israel's government in turmoil over failure to deport African migrants (03-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Tens of thousands of migrants to Israel protest in Tel Aviv (07-Jan-2014)
  
  
• Israel to expel tens of thousands of illegal African immigrants (12-Dec-2011)
  
  
• Israel prepares to absorb refugees from Syria (11-Jan-2012)
  
  
• Russian migrants to Israel form closed ultra-nationalist community (29-Apr-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Eritrea, Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, Musa Ecweru,
Canada, Germany, Italy

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Apr-18 World View -- As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical weapons essential

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia ties itself in knots diplomatically over Syria chemical attack
  
• Syria blocks OPCW inspectors from visiting site of chemical attack
  
• As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical weapons essential
  
• Syria TV says that its Shayrat airbase has been attacked by missiles
  

****
**** Russia ties itself in knots diplomatically over Syria chemical attack
****


Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (Tass)

On Friday, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said
that he had "irrefutable evidence" that the April 7 chemical
attack Syria's Damascus suburb Douma had been staged:

<QUOTE>"We have the irrefutable data that this [chemical
attack] was staged.

And special services of a country, which is now seeking to be in
the first ranks of the Russophobic campaign, were involved in this
staged event."<END QUOTE>

Lavrov did not name the country, but other Russian officials have said
that Lavrov was referring to the UK, and said that the British
government has paid a group of volunteer rescue workers, known as the
White Helmets, "to stage a provocation with an alleged use of chemical
weapons."

In an interview of Lavrov by BBC's HardTalk, Steven Sachur repeatedly
asked what this "irrefutable data" was, and Lavrov never answered the
question, but kept personally attacking Sachur. Not surprisingly, no
such irrefutable data exists.

According to a statement by the British government:

<QUOTE>"Russia has argued that the attack on Douma was
somehow staged, or faked. They have even suggested that the UK
was behind the attack. That is ludicrous. The attack on Douma was
not reported by just a sole source in opposition to the
Regime. There are multiple eye witness accounts, substantial video
footage, accounts from first responders and medical
evidence."<END QUOTE>

Russia is tied up in knots about this subject because lie after lie
have caught up with one another. After Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas
on his own people in 2013, Lavrov first denied that any Sarin attack
had taken place, then denied that al-Assad had any stockpiles of Sarin
gas, and then committed to US Secretary of State John Kerry that all
stockpiles of chemical weapons would be removed. Under international
pressure, Lavrov committed that Russia would guarantee that all
chemical weapons would be removed.

So you can see the problem. Russia has to deny that any attack took
place on April 7, because Russia has guaranteed that al-Assad has no
stockpiles of chemical weapons. That's why Russia is diplomatically
tied up in knots.

Lavrov made an additional interesting statement during the interview.
He was asked whether relations between Russia and the West are worse
than during the cold war:

<QUOTE>"Well I think it's worse because during the cold war
there were channels of communication, and there was no obsession
with Russophobia, which looks like genocide by
sanctions."<END QUOTE>

His accusation of "genocide by sanctions" is startling, and the
"Russophobia" remark is common to both of Lavrov's comments quoted
above, and reflects a pervasive paranoia in Russia's leadership. I've
previously quoted a high-level Russian official claiming that the West has been attacking Russia for 200 years.
All this talk about staging the chemical attack as a kind of
Hollywood horror film and blaming it on the UK, combined with
paranoia, seems highly delusional and worrying. Russia's leadership
is in a very dangerous state right now, and could make a
miscalculation and mistake. UK Government and Tass (13-Apr) and NBC News (13-Apr) and Russia Today (13-Apr) and BBC HardTalk


****
**** Syria blocks OPCW inspectors from visiting site of chemical attack
****

Syria has been for several days blocking the Organization for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) from inspecting the Douma site.
The OPCW held an emergency meeting in Hague on Monday, and
demanded immediate unfettered access to the site of the attack.

Russians have already been inspecting the site since the day after the
April 7 chemical attack. We know that because the Russians have said
that these "experts" had visited and determined that there was no
evidence of a chemical attack. So these "experts" have already had
ten days to clean up as much evidence as they can.

There were also reports by a correspondent on al-Jazeera that
local Syrians in Douma are being threatened by Syrian security
forces with violence to themselves and their families if
they give the OPCW inspectors any evidence of the chemical attack.

Late on Monday, Syria said that they could go on Wednesday, April 18.
Deutsche Welle and Tass (9-Apr) and Al-Jazeera


****
**** As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical weapons essential
****

The military strategy used by Bashar al-Assad in Douma and Ghouta, and
earlier in Aleppo, depends heavily on repeated use of chemical
weapons, particularly chlorine attacks. His objective in these cities
is genocide and ethnic cleansing -- to kill as many Sunnis as
possible, since he says that all Sunnis in these cities are
terrorists, including women and children.

The problem that al-Assad has faced is that people hide in basements,
and so clearing out the entire population of Sunnis requires
destroying all buildings as much as possible, then house to house
searches to find all the Sunnis still hiding from the army. That
process will work, but it can take many months.

Use of chlorine gas speeds things up considerably. Chlorine is
heavier than air, and the chlorine gas seeps into the basement of
every home, forcing the women and children out into the open, where
al-Assad can mop them up and kill them all simultaneously. This could
save considerable time, and undoubtedly has already.

Idlib province presents special problems for al-Assad. Whereas Ghouta
and Aleppo each had just a few hundred thousand residents, Idlib has
over two million. In fact, many of the people who fled the violence
in Aleppo and Ghouta ended up fleeing to Idlib. So for al-Assad,
Idlib contains over two million terrorists.

To exterminate all those residents of Aleppo with just
conventional weapons will take al-Assad a long time, possibly
years. Al-Assad would like to mop up the entire population a
lot more quickly than that.

There have been news reports that al-Assad has been smiling and
happy since Saturday's coalition airstrikes, because even though
a few buildings were demolished, the airstrikes actually gave
al-Assad the green light he needs to proceed with ethnic
cleansing and genocide in Idlib:

• Saturday's attack was little more than a slap on the wrist for
  al-Assad. He undoubtedly has other labs that can produce chemical
  weapons, and he undoubtedly has other stocks of chemical weapons
  elsewhere.
  
  
• The West has only condemned chemical weapons use by al-Assad,
  meaning that any other form of mass slaughter is perfectly
  acceptable.
  
  
• In fact, al-Assad has conducted numerous chlorine attacks. The
  one on April 7 has been called out only because of the horrific
  videos. So al-Assad can even conduct further chemical weapons
  attacks, provided that he does something to prevent any viral
  videos.
  
  
• Furthermore, if al-Assad uses chlorine gas again, it's
  likely that the international opposition to another strike
  on al-Assad's assets will make it impossible.

So Bashar al-Assad has plenty of reason to be smiling and happy now.
He will undoubtedly use chlorine gas to force women and children out
into the open where his missiles can kill masses of them
simultaneously. Basically, there is nothing stopping him from
committing any war crimes or ethnic cleansing or genocide in Idlib.
Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far this century,
and Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Khamenei are war criminals for
participating in his genocide. France Diplomatie and Reuters and AFP and Syria Deeply (29-Mar)

Related Articles:

• American, British, French attack on Syria signals sharp change in Western policy (15-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working (29-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role (09-Apr-2017)
  
  
• U.S. preparing for worst-case chemical weapons scenario in Syria (13-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons (20-Mar-2013)
  

****
**** Syria TV says that its Shayrat airbase has been attacked by missiles
****

Syria's state television says that its airbase at Shayrat in Homs
province and Dumair military airport near Damascus have been
attacked by missiles. Syria says that all missiles were shot
down without reaching their targets.

Shayrat air base was the target of the US missile strikes launched
by the US a year ago in response to Sarin gas attacks by Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad on April 4, 2017.

However, in this case, the US says that there was no U.S.
military activity in the area at that time.

This situation is similar to the one that occurred on Monday of last
week, when Syria's T4 airbase was attacked by missiles, but not by
American missiles. It turned out that the missile attack came from
Israel. Reuters and Middle East Eye

Related Articles:

• Iran, Hezbollah and Syria threaten retaliation against Israel (15-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Syria reports that it's under missile attack, 'likely' by the US (09-Apr-2018)
  
  
• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians (06-Apr-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Sergei Lavrov,
Douma, White Helmets, Britain, Steven Sachur, John Kerry,
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, OPCW,
Idlib, Aleppo, Ghouta, chlorine,
Shayrat airbase, Dumair military airport

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

Seems like Israel or whoever it is should be buying cruise missiles from the US which can actually hit their targets.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Apr-18 World View -- Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country
  
• Brief generational history of Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan
  

****
**** Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country
****


Nikol Pashinyan, late Tuesday evening, calling for his supporters on Wednesday to block buildings and roads. The violence gave him a black eye, and there is some blood on his bandaged right hand. (lragir.am)

Nikol Pashinyan, a member of Armenia's parliament from the opposition
Yelk party, is calling for a "non-violent velvet revolution," alluding
to the peaceful 1989 uprising that ousted the Communist regime in the
former Czechoslovakia. Pashinyan's objective is to prevent Serzh
Sargsyan, who has served ten years as Armenia's president, from
continuing in power as Armenia's prime minister under a new
constitution.

Protesters are particularly incensed that Sargsyan had promised not to
run for prime minister after the constitution was changed, but now is
running anyway.

With protesters chanting "Serzh the liar," Pashinyan has been calling
for widespread strikes, and blockades of streets and government
buildings in Armenia's capital city Yerevan, with the objective of
preventing the parliament from voting to make Sargsyan the prime
minister.

There were widespread protests across several cities, with students
blocking roads and buildings. At least 46 people were injured in the
protests, including six police officers. More than 60 people were
arrested. Pashinyan himself was taken to a hospital with cuts and an
eye injury, but he returned to speak to the crowd and urge further
protests.

On Tuesday, the parliament voted overwhelmingly, 76 to 17 with no
abstentions, to elect former president Sargsyan as the prime minister
under the new constitution.

Late on Tuesday, Pashinyan addressed the crowd and called for
widespread protests to block government agencies, streets and
highways.

<QUOTE>"Tomorrow at 10 am, I will be waiting for you on
France Square where our actions will start and will be concluded
on Republic Square. ...

On the upcoming days we will form velvet revolution committees
which will lead this movement till victory. Revolutionary
committees will be created in all areas and regions of the
country. Very soon all the government agencies of Armenia,
including the police will have to perform the orders of the
revolutionary committees, not of Serzh Sargsyan.

Tomorrow morning we must paralyze entire Armenia, from the 9th
district to 3rd, 4th villages. Serzh Sargsyan and his servants
must not have room to move in Yerevan, they must move along the
crossing points that we will decide. Tomorrow we set up crossing
points in Yerevan streets which are intended for the Republicans
and their riffraff only."<END QUOTE>

RFE/RL and Lragir (Armenia) and News (Armenia) and NPR

****
**** Brief generational history of Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan
****

Armenia had two generational crisis wars, over 70 years apart, during
the 20th century.

The first occurred during World War I between 1915-17, when over a
million Armenians were massacred, deported from their homeland in
Anatolia (Turkey)to present-day Syria. Armenia considers the killings
genocide, a charge that Turkey denies.

The second generational crisis war was the conflict between 1989-94
with Azerbaijan over the enclave Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh
is an Armenian-occupied region within Azerbaijan, and the source of
continuing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Today, Armenia is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past
the end of the previous generational crisis war. Student protests are
common in Awakening eras (as in America and Europe in the 1960s),
because this is the coming of age of the first generation growing up
after the crisis war. So the student protests occurring this week in
Armenia are typical of this era.

Although the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan was an external war,
more research is needed on the question of the extent to which it was
also an ethnic conflict between the ethnic Armenians and the ethnic
Turkic population of Azerbaijan.

During this week's protests, with the objective of preventing former
president Serzh Sargsyan from becoming prime minister, opposition
leader Nikol Pashinyan said the following:

<QUOTE>"Serzh Sargsyan is trying to change the essence of our
country. He’s transforming it into western Azerbaijan. We aren’t
citizens of Azerbaijan. We are citizens of Armenia. We aren’t
citizens of North Korea or of Kazakhstan."<END QUOTE>

Media sources do not explain what Pashinyan means by "transforming it
into western Azerbaijan." This suggests an ethnic issue, and requires
more research. Hetq (Armenia) and BBC

Related articles:

• Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli (25-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency (07-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Armenia says it's 'ready for war' with Azerbaijan 'bastards' (04-Sep-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan,
Czechoslovakia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-17-2018, 12:53 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Seems like Israel or whoever it is should be buying cruise
> missiles from the US which can actually hit their targets.
>

Syrian media retracted that claim. The reason given for
making the claim is that the Syrians are extremely nervous,
and they overreacted. The Israelis are also extremely
nervous, and they're expecting some kind of retaliation
from Iran for last week's attack.

[Cynic Hero '86]

The Russians and Syrians are defiant because they are not Deterred by Clintonian "Punitive Strikes" or by western brokered cease-fires. Boomers need to understand that this is NOT the 1990s. Russia has learned from the decrepit state it was in during the Yeltsin years. Only a Mass air bombardment followed by Ground Campaign with our forces outdoing Assad in indiscriminate destruction would force a western advance into Syria and a Russian retreat. Because of Globalism Such a operation is likely not possible as it would require a fundamental reform of Western Doctrine and configuration of western forces

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-12-2018, 07:25 PM)Mikebert Wrote: > You know John, you have posted detailed analyzes every day for
> years. This makes you an historian of the recent past with deep
> knowledge of the last 15 years. Think of it this way, a historian
> may spend years working on a monograph about the detailed events
> of a 15 year period in the 14th century, for example (I've read
> some). Such works come from reading scads of accounts of the
> period, which is exactly what you have done. If you were projected
> into the future 200 years you could write dozens of monographs
> about the early 21st century based on the your collected
> observations in real time.

> What I am getting at is you have all this material. Do you have a
> synthesis? I am not talking about GD. GD is your own construction,
> like those of my own. They provide insight. But others have
> studied these things before you. Do you engage with them in your
> intellectual work? Here is the reason. Your GD model is
> different. It appears to work by an mechanism that is dissimilar
> from those of other cycles. But it is of inconvenient
> length--around 70 years. I cannot relate it to any data set that I
> know about. Have you developed more compact ways to represent your
> thesis? Many thousands of pages of text isn't useful data because
> it requires enormous work to deal with. This work would most
> effectively be done by you.

> I don't usually check out this section very often, but when I do
> it's mostly presentation of what is going on now. There doesn't
> seem to be a separate theory section. So what is the objective you
> are trying to achieve?

I've read through your paper to understand your conclusions, though I
haven't attempted to follow the mathematical analysis leading to the
conclusions. I'll make some general comments, then end with some
suggestions.

So, as I understand it, you've found a way to put US presidents into
classes, where Trump are Carter are disjunctive and Reagan is
reconstructive. You've identified and analyzed various types of long
cycles, including political cycles, ecocnomic cycles, religious
cycles, cultural cycles, and instability/violence cycles in America in
the 1800s and 1900s.

So the first question going through my mind is - what is the target
audience of this paper? I assume that it's Turchin and his merry
band. The time that I met Turchin (in 2003), he spoke very highly of
you. So the question is why you didn't ask Turchin or one of his
students or one of his peers to review the paper. The fact that
Turchin currently has a vitriolic hatred of me (typical of most of the
world), makes me wonder what the interplay of personalities is here.

But the question about target audience has a broader significance
beyond personalities. Who do you actually expect to read and
understand this paper?

Let me explain through my own experience with the Fourth Turning Book
(FTB). I spent much of 2002 reading ftb pretty obsessively, trying to
understand the theory and its implications, and whether it was any
better than astrology. Obvious problems, like why was WW II a crisis
war, but WW I was not, simply made no sense at all.

By 2003, I had developed the "Principle of Localization," which said
that, rather than every country in the world being on the same
generational timeline, every nation or society has its own
generational timeline. That solved the world war problems, and many
other problems. With that addition, generational theory finally made
sense and seemed plausible.

The next issues were theory validation and target audience. The FTB
claimed that all the things that had happened in Anglo-American
history essentially had to have happened, and were driven by
generational changes. Well, if that's true, then it has to be
possible to use this generational theory, including the Principle of
Localization, to predict what happens next.

That's when I set up the Generational Dynamics web site, and started
writing articles that analyzed current events according to
generational theory. In my own mind, the purpose was clear: If I
could not use generational theory to analyze and predict current
events, then I would have to assume that the entire theory was based
on cherry-picking events in Anglo-American history, and was therefore
worthless as a theory.

The other issue for me was target audience. I wanted to write things
that people would actually read. So on 5/1/2003 I posted my article
on "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" and interpreted Bush's
mideast roadmap to peace through generational theory, concluding that
the plan would fail. I remember thinking that this might be a
completely wrong. Six months later, the Israelis and Palestinians
might have shaken hands on a deal that would create two-states
side-by-side blah blah blah. I predicted that it couldn't happen, and
if it had happened, then I would have probably have completely dropped
my interest in generational theory forever, and gone on to lead a much
more normal and probably happier life.

You asked me recently why I don't write more about theory, and just
write about current events. The answer is that I write articles about
current events that people will actually read, but I also try to work
some generational theory into each article, for the people who are
interested in that. Out of the thousands of people who read my
articles, I would guess that less than 2% care about any of the
theoretical stuff at all, or try to understand it, and almost all of
them are familiar with the FTB.

There are two parts to the FTB. One part is theory, and that's what
interested me. The other part is social characterizations of
generations (Silents, Boomers, Xers, etc.), and this is what interests
most people. One thing that always surprises me about this forum is
that almost no one who contributes to this forum has any understanding
of the theory in the FTB. The poster child for this is Cynic Hero,
who doesn't understand even the simplest theoretical concept in FTB,
but sees the entire world through his hatred of Boomers.

So that brings me to your paper. Who do you expect will read it? Do
you care if anyone reads it? And how do you expect to validate it?

Let's take an example. You say that Trump is a disjunctive president,
and you say, "All disjunctive presidents have served a single
term. ... [A] disjunctive president is usually followed by at least
three presidential terms of the opposition party."

So OK, I read this, and thought, gee, you must conclude that Trump is
going to have only term, and it will be followed by three terms of
Democratic presidents.

But no, instead you say, "If he gains a second term, he will not be
disjunctive and 2008 will not look like a critical election."

Well, what does that mean? Was 2008 a critical election or not? Is
Trump a disjunctive president or not? I get the impression that one
has to wait until 2030 before we can answer either of those two
questions, and by then the answers will be useless.

So why did you make that last statement? Maybe you were just afraid
to go out on a limb and make a prediction that might turn out to be
wrong? This was also true of me with the roadmap to peace article,
but I did it anyway, since I decided that I really had nothing to
lose. If it was just fear, then you can decide whether you want to go
beyond your fear, and make some actual predictions that will allow
your theory to be validated or invalidated.

I should add that this really isn't all or nothing. No theory depends
on just one thing, and if you get one thing wrong, then you can go
back and adjust your theory. I did this, for example, when I
originally said that a major war in Syria was impossible in an
Awakening era, but then when it turned out to be a major war I ended
up developing an entire theory of Awakening era wars that applied to
dozens of nations. So my mistake really turned out to be a huge
benefit in the end.

So my point is that if you're hesitating out of fear of being wrong,
you might as well go ahead anyway, because right or wrong, you'll
learn a lot from it.

The second issue is that I'm very suspicious of any theory that
applies only to US history, and nothing else. As I said, my feeling
was that the FTB theory would be completely useless if it couldn't be
validated internationally. If all your examples are from US history,
then the charge of cherry-picking is quite justifiable.

So my suggestion is that you try to broaden your theory to other
countries. What does it mean for a country leader to be disjunctive,
reconstructive, etc., in a parliamentary system, or in a communist
dictatorship or in a fascist dictatorship?

I would think that if your theory is valid, then it would be possible
to made a more nuanced definition of the relevant terms, so that they
apply to other countries. An example of where I had to deal with that
issue is that FTB uses "high" to characterize a first turning, which
makes no sense at all for a country that was defeated, so I called it
a "recovery era," which applies to every nation, winners and losers.

So those would be my suggestions. Consider writing articles on how
your theory applies to current events. You actually used to do that
when you were writing your books on Kondratiev Cycles, since people
who bought your books could use them to make investing decisions. I
think that you should try to find a way back to that mode of thinking.
It's scary that you'll make mistakes, but correcting the mistakes will
make your theory better.

[Warren Dew]

You just laid out why I think you're worth paying attention to, and Mikebert is not.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Apr-18 World View -- Thousands of Mali refugees flee into Burkina Faso to escape ethnic violence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Qaeda linked JNIM attacks two peacekeeper camps in Timbuktu, Mali
  
• Canada debates whether there's any point to a peacekeeping force
  
• Thousands of Mali refugees flee into Burkina Faso to escape ethnic violence
  

****
**** Al-Qaeda linked JNIM attacks two peacekeeper camps in Timbuktu, Mali
****


Jihadists in Mali dress as UN peacekeeprs and display UN logos (Reuters)

On Saturday, Al-Qaeda linked jihadists carried out a sophisticated
attack on two separate peacekeeper camps in Timbuktu in northern Mali.
One UN peacekeeper and 15 jihadist suspects were killed while seven
French soldiers were wounded.

The most likely perpetrator was the al-Qaeda linked Jama’at Nusrat
al-Islam wal-Muslim (JNIM, Group for Support of Islam and Muslims,
GSIM). JNIM was formed in 2017 by a merger of four Mali-based
al-Qaeda linked groups, including Ansar Dine, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic
Maghreb (AQIM), Al Murabitoon, and Katibat Macina (Macina Liberation
Front). These groups were responsible for a surge of hundreds of
al-Qaeda linked attacks in Africa's Sahel (the strip of Africa just
below the Sahara desert, separating the Arab north from Black Africa
to the south), including Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

The increasing frequency of JNIM attacks in the Sahel region, and the
great complexity and scale of Saturday's attack, indicate that the
capability of JNIM is growing. The jihadists, some of whom were
disguised as UN peacekeepers, arrived in vehicles bearing the logo of
the UN and the Malian army. They attacked using rocket-propelled
grenades and mortars, and detonated at least one suicide vehicle-borne
improvised explosive device (SVBIED).

They attacked two separate peacekeeper bases simultaneously. They
attacked the camp of the UN peacekeepers MINUSMA (Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission) with mortars, exchange of fire, and
a vehicle suicide bomb attack. MINUSMA was established in 2013, and
now has 11,000 soldiers. 150 MINUSMA forces have now been killed,
making it by far the most dangerous UN peacekeeping mission in the
world.

The second simultaneous attack was on the camp of Operation Barkhane,
which was set up by the French military in 2014, and includes troops
from Mali, Chad, Niger, Mauritania and Burkina Faso – which operate
collectively as the G5 Sahel. The rules are different for Barkhane
and MINUSMA, in that MINUSMA is UN peacekeepers who are unarmed, while
Barkhane is soldiers who are fully armed, and authorized to use them.
France 24 and Reuters

****
**** Canada debates whether there's any point to a peacekeeping force
****

Saturday's attack has once again raised questions about whether there
is any point for Western countries or the United Nations to have a
peacekeeping force in the midst of warring parties.

This is becoming a major political issue in Canada, where the UN is
pressuring Canada to speed up its commitment to MINUSMA.

Canada finally announced in March that it will send two Chinook
transport helicopters and four Griffon attack helicopters to the
MINUSMA mission in Mali. These helicopters will replace a German
fleet of helicopters when Germany ends its commitment to MINUSMA.

The problem is that Germany plans to pull out in June, while Canada
plans to send its helicopters to MINUSMA in August. So talks are
under way for the UN either to convince Canada to deliver its
helicopters in June, or to convince Germany to delay its departure
until August.

One Ottawa columnist summarized the debate as follows:

<QUOTE>"Canada’s decision to deploy military personnel there
suggests none of the lessons learned from our 13-year war in
Afghanistan are remembered. Nor is there memory of Canadian
military involvement in the messy, inconclusive wars in Libya and
Iraq, or our involvement in the disastrous wars in Somalia, Rwanda
and the Congo. ...

Even a cursory acknowledgement of the history of the country and
the region, where “empires” were almost as numerous as the sands
of the Sahara, suggests the injection of thousands of foreign
troops will do little to settle historical geographic, ethnic and
linguistic divides, which have been sharpened by the involvement,
or more accurately, accentuation of extreme Islamic theology.

During the colonial period, formalized in 1892, the region was
called French Sudan and, at various iterations, was inclusive of
Senegal, Ivory Coast, Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. In the north,
it overlapped with the southern regions of Algeria with easy,
uncontrolled connections into Morocco, Tunisia and Libya.

Some will suggest our Afghanistan experience was unique but in
doing so we easily forget the beginnings of African peacekeeping
in 1960 in the Congo. More are dying today than when the area was
the personal fiefdom of the King of the Belgians."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this commentator is
correct. The Sahel region is headed for a war, and it makes
absolutely no difference at all whether MINUSMA or Barkhane are
operating there. The peacekeeping forces are provided for
humanitarian reasons, which is also the reason given by the UK government
for supporting last
weekend's missile strike on Syria's chemical weapons plants. AFP and Toronto Star and Ottawa Citizen

****
**** Thousands of Mali refugees flee into Burkina Faso to escape ethnic violence
****

In a completely separate region of Mali, a separate crisis is brewing,
with thousands of Malians fleeing to neighboring Burkina Faso to
escape a growing ethnic conflict that has killed dozens of people in
the last month, destroying homes and other property.

The reasons for the clashes are very familiar, since I've written
about the same issues occurring in country after country.

The two ethnic groups the Dogons, who are farmers, versus the Peuls or
Fulani, who are herders. The two ethnic groups may be able to coexist
peacefully for years, but as populations grow, the farmers extend the
farms, and the herders demand more grazing land and water for their
cattle. Since the amount of available land is the same, no matter
what the population, clashes result, often leading to war.

Conflicts between herders and farmers are common in many countries,
and I've described them in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Burundi,
Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, and even America in the 1800s. As
population grows, the farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle
eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on
land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the
herders knock them down.

UN officials are becoming alarmed over the growing refugee crisis. In
just a few weeks since mid-February, some 3,000 people have already
fled across the border into Burkina Faso. The new arrivals add to
some 24,000 Malian refugees who have found refuge in Burkina Faso
since the start of the Mali conflict in 2012. UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR) and Reuters and AFP (20-June-2017)

Related Articles

• Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement (27-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Burkina Faso terror attack targets France's anti-terror Operation Barkhane (04-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Jihadist attacks in Mali surge with rise of al-Qaeda linked JNIM (04-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) blamed for deaths of US troops in Niger (08-Oct-2017)
  
  
• France promotes 'G5 Sahel' peacekeeping force in west Africa after jihadist attacks (16-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Acting unilaterally, France sends army and air force into Mali (12-Jan-2013)
  
  
• France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali 'as long as necessary' (20-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Timbuktu,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission, MINUSMA,
France, Operation Barkhane, Chad, Niger, Mauritania,
JNIM, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslim, Ansaroul Islam,
GSIM, Group for Support of Islam and Muslims,
Canada, Germany, Burkina Faso, Dogons, Peuls, Fulanis

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Apr-18 World View -- Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution
  
• The Socialist delusion in Cuba
  
• Cuba's faltering economy and the dual currency problem
  

****
**** Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution
****


New president Miguel Díaz-Canel (L) and former president Raúl Castro (EPA)

Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez assumed the dictatorship of Cuba on
Thursday, as hand-picked successor to 86-year-old Raúl Castro, who is
stepping down. Raúl Castro was the hand-picked successor to Fidel
Castro when the latter stepped down in 2008.

He said that there would be no "capitalist restoration," and
promised to continue the Socialist "Cuban revolution":

<QUOTE>"In Cuba there is no space for those who aspire for a
restoration of capitalism. The mandate given by the people to
this house is to give continuity to the Cuban revolution in a
crucial historic moment.

“I assume this responsibility with the conviction that all we
revolutionaries, from any trench, will be faithful to Fidel and
Raúl, the current leader of the revolutionary process.

We will have to exercise an increasingly collective
leadership. Strengthening the participation of the people.

I do not come to promise anything, as the Revolution never has in
all these years. I come to fulfill the program that we have
implemented with the guidelines of Socialism and the Revolution.

To those who through ignorance or bad faith doubt our commitment,
we must tell them that the Revolution continues and will continue.
The world has received the wrong message that the Revolution ends
with its guerrillas."<END QUOTE>

Díaz-Canel was born in 1960, the year of the Cuban revolution. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, he is in the same
generational class as America's Boomers born in 1945 (at the end of
World War II). He will not have anything like the revolutionary
fervor of the Castros, but will be more likely to seek compromise and
avoid conflict. On the other hand, he undoubtedly thinks that the
Castros' generation made some mistakes. It remains to be seen what
will happen, but it's possible that he may consider one of those
mistakes to be the unending hostility to the Cuban community in
Florida.

Many commentators are saying that this is an "opportunity" for
President Trump to improve relations with Cuba. Actually, this is
much more an opportunity for Díaz-Canel to improve relations with the
United States. If he decides to soften Cuba's policy with the US and
Cuban-Americans, it's possible that the Trump administration will
respond with better relations. RadioRebelde (Cuba) and Granma (Cuba) and Guardian (London)


****
**** The Socialist delusion in Cuba
****

News commentators are saying that the retirement of Raúl Castro is the
most important event in Cuba's recent history. Others say that the
most important moment was president Barack Obama's opening to Cuba in
2014. Others say that the most important moment occurred in 2008,
when Fidel Castro stepped down.

Well, in my opinion the most important moment in Cuba's recent history
occurred in 2010, when Cuba's economy was in shambles, and president
Raúl Castro announced the end of the Socialist economy.
The government would lay off 500,000 government
workers (Socialist bureaucrats) and privatize many businesses.

Here are the excerpts of the announcement that I quoted:

<QUOTE>"After 52 years, the Cuban Revolution is a living
and unshakable direction for the nation, and our people's will and
determination to continue the construction of socialism, and make
further progress in the development and updating of the economic
model we must follow, and consolidate the gains achieved. ...

Cuba faces the urgent need to move forward economically, better
organize production, enhance productivity and raise reserves,
improve discipline and efficiency and this is only possible
through the dignified and devoted to our people. Today, the duty
of the Cubans is to work and do it well, with seriousness and
responsibility, and to make better use of resources available to
better serve our needs.

In order to update the economic model and economic projects for
the 2011-2015 period, the guidelines call for the reduction of
more than 500,000 workers in the public sector and in parallel the
increase in non-state sector.

The timetable for implementation [of the reduction] for agencies
and businesses is the first quarter of 2011. ...

Our state neither can nor should continue to burden companies and
productive organizations with services and inflated budgets that
weigh down the economy, are counterproductive, create bad habits
and distort the behavior of workers. It is necessary to increase
production and quality of services, reduce social spending and
eliminate bulky improper gratuities, excessive subsidies.

Hundreds of thousands of workers will move to self-employment in
the coming years.

Within the state sector, it will only be possible to go to places
with a historical workforce deficit, such as agriculture,
construction, teachers, police, industrial workers and others.

A matter of singular importance is the salary. We must
reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to
each according to the quantity and quality of work provided.

The unity of the Cuban workers and our people has been key to
maximizing the gigantic edifice built by the Revolution and the
changes that we are now undertaking she will continue to be our
most important strategic weapon."<END QUOTE>

There's one part of this statement that I didn't sufficiently
highlight when I first quoted it.

Marx's Socialist Principle Of Distribution is "From each according to
abilities, to each according to needs." This means that greedy
capitalists are not allowed to make more money than they need at the
expense of starving workers.

Unsurprisingly, this principle has been a total economic disaster
every time it's been tried. Cuba's 2010 announcement says:

<QUOTE>"A matter of singular importance is the salary. We
must reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay
to each according to the quantity and quality of work
provided."<END QUOTE>

In this case, "reinvigorate" means "abandon the core principle of
Socialism." Cuba may still call itself Socialist, but as a matter of
definition it's more Fascist than Socialist.

This is not a surprise. Socialism has a 100% failure record, and I've
posted the reason many times.

As I've written many times in the past, Socialism is mathematically
impossible as population grows. The number of regulators grows
exponentially faster than the population grows, so by the time you get
to, say, a million people, everyone would have to be a regulator.

When you impose Socialism on an existing wealthy population, as was
done in Venezuela, and what Bernie Sanders would like to do to the US,
then it works ok until, as Margaret Thatcher would say, the government
runs out of other people's money. Then disaster ensues. This is for
the same reason. If the population has more than a few hundred
thousand people, then there aren't enough government regulators.

A country can save itself from that disaster by retrenching from
Socialism as Cuba and even Russia have done. Sweden also did this,
adopting Socialism in the 1970s, and abandoning it in the 1990s.
North Korea and Venezuela are the disaster that happens when the
country leaders refuse to retrench.

Socialism is the greatest economic disaster in world history. It's
much worse than Naziism or Fascism. The Nazis may have killed tens of
millions of people, but in the last century, Socialism has killed
hundreds of millions of people. Socialism has never succeeded, for
the reasons I've given. Socialism has a 100% failure rate, for the
reasons I've given. There is literally nothing worse than Socialism.

And as I always like to ask, How stupid do you have to be to advocate
a system with a 100% failure rate, that always leads to disaster?
BBC

****
**** Cuba's faltering economy and the dual currency problem
****

As in Venezuela, Socialism has been extremely destructive to Cuba's
economy. There is one unique thing about Cuba's economy, however.
Ever since the Cuban revolution in 1960, Cuba has been depending on
other Socialist countries to provide money to prop up its economy.

For decades, the Soviet Union supplied that money. When the Soviet
Union collapsed in 1991, Cuba's economy tanked. The Venezuela started
providing money to Cuba, and Cuba was OK again. For two decades,
Venezuela provided $6 billion per year to Cuba. But Venezuela's
Socialist economy has been suffering its own catastrophic collapse in
the last few years, and can no longer subsidize Cuba.

Cuba is said to be searching for another country to provide free
money, and they're talking to Russia and China. But Russia and China
have their own economic problems, and they're also being asked to prop
up Venezuela's failing Socialist economy.

Cuba could be helped in another way, if international investors were
willing to invest in businesses in Cuba. However, investors would
have to know that they will be allowed to extract their money in later
years, which would require reforms to the banking system.

Cuba would also have to do away with its "dual currency system" before
investors would be interested. The new president, Miguel Mario
Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, has promised to reform the dual currency
system, but that is strongly opposed by Cuba's élite class.

The bizarre dual currency system means that Cuba has two currencies --
Cuban peso (CUP) and the Cuban convertible peso (CUC). The CUC
is pegged to the dollar, while the CUP worth 1/25th of a CUC.

As one example, Cuba's peasants get paid in the cheap CUP currency,
but the élites with government connections receive huge subsidies by
converting their cheap CUPs for expensive CUCs.

Díaz-Canel has said that he would do away with dual currencies, but
other problems run deep in the economy. Despite the 2010 reforms, the
government still employs three of every four Cuban workers, and they
are mostly bureaucrats who produce little or nothing. The average
monthly state salary is $31 — so low that workers often live on stolen
goods and handouts from relatives overseas, according to reports.

Cuba is close to economic collapse, and needs help from another
nation. Díaz-Canel might turn to Russia or China, or he might turn to
the U.S. and work to bring 50 years of hostility to an end. It will
be interesting to watch and see what happens. AP and Bloomberg and Economist (23-Oct-2013)

Related Articles:

• Cuba's seismic shift has global implications (16-Sep-2010)
  
  
• Cuba's seismic shift has global implications (16-Sep-2010)
  
  
• From Cuba to China, people worry about demise of Venezuela's Chavez (03-Jul-2011)
  
  
• Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others (18-Dec-2014)
  
  
• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cuba, Raúl Castro, Fidel Castro,
Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, Socialist Principle Of Distribution,
Venezuela, Soviet Union, Russia, China,
Cuban peso, CUP, Cuban convertible peso, CUC

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[Warren Dew]

If the US is going to save Cuba, we should insist that they start discarding socialism for capitalism.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Consider the Cuban Missile Crisis.

At a minimum, the USA would demand that Cube not host military forces of a hostile power.