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Generational Dynamics World View
** 23-May-2019 Trade war with China and Vietnam

(05-22-2019, 06:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: > I read a great critique of Trump's trade war as stupid on tactics,
> totally lacking in strategy, but something that needed to be done.
> China has been riding the "developing nation" hobby horse far
> longer than they deserved to ride it. Add their great plans for
> world leadership, but also their weaknesses. They are already
> showing their hand on their one-sided view of trade and political
> relationships. What happens if the world decides that China is
> just too risky to have as a partner on really important things,
> and too domineering on everything else, and decamps for ABC
> (Anywhere But China) for making their things, great and small.
> This can get really messy really fast.

(05-23-2019, 11:04 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Moving to Vietnam to avoid tariffs will likely turn out to be a
> short term tactic. Americans will eventually notice (we aren't
> entirely stupid), and the trade war will expand in its geographic
> spread.


In the middle of the US-China trade negotiations, China passed the
Foreign Investment Law in March, which codified the worst corrupt,
extortionist and militaristic policies of the CCP toward foreign-owned
businesses, and then on May 3 eviscerated their own commitments that
would have reversed these corrupt, extortionist and militaristic
policies. The CCP is a global criminal in every possible way.
They're running concentration camps and crematoria (like Hitler's
concentration camps), they're violently cracking down on Uighurs,
Tibetans, Muslims, Buddhists and Christians (as Hitler violently
cracked down on Jews and Roma), they're annexing other countries'
regions (like Hitler's Lebensraum), they have complete contempt for
international law (like Hitler), and they're preparing for war in
every possible way (like Hitler).

Trump has no intention of being this generation's Neville Chamberlain.
He's using the US-China trade negotiations as a tool to derail the
CCP's path to total war. It will not succeed because a world war in
100% certain anyway, but as I've said many times, and I'm not going to
criticize Trump for trying to prevent a world war, even if war is
certain no matter what he does.

There are plenty of reasons why a business might relocate a factory
from China to Vietnam -- substantially lower labor and real estate
costs, and less of the criminality -- corruption and extortion --
that's embedded in Chinese law.

Trump is not going to expand the trade war to Vietnam because Vietnam
will be our ally. He's not that stupid, and he completely baffles the
idiots on the left. Impeach! Impeach! Impeach!
Reply
(05-23-2019, 12:53 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 23-May-2019 Trade war with China and Vietnam

(05-22-2019, 06:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   I read a great critique of Trump's trade war as stupid on tactics,
>   totally lacking in strategy, but something that needed to be done.
>   China has been riding the "developing nation" hobby horse far
>   longer than they deserved to ride it. Add their great plans for
>   world leadership, but also their weaknesses. They are already
>   showing their hand on their one-sided view of trade and political
>   relationships.  What happens if the world decides that China is
>   just too risky to have as a partner on really important things,
>   and too domineering on everything else, and decamps for ABC
>   (Anywhere But China) for making their things, great and small.
>   This can get really messy really fast.

(05-23-2019, 11:04 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: >   Moving to Vietnam to avoid tariffs will likely turn out to be a
>   short term tactic. Americans will eventually notice (we aren't
>   entirely stupid), and the trade war will expand in its geographic
>   spread.

In the middle of the US-China trade negotiations, China passed the
Foreign Investment Law in March, which codified the worst corrupt,
extortionist and militaristic policies of the CCP toward foreign-owned
businesses, and then on May 3 eviscerated their own commitments that
would have reversed these corrupt, extortionist and militaristic
policies.  The CCP is a global criminal in every possible way.
They're running concentration camps and crematoria (like Hitler's
concentration camps), they're violently cracking down on Uighurs,
Tibetans, Muslims, Buddhists and Christians (as Hitler violently
cracked down on Jews and Roma), they're annexing other countries'
regions (like Hitler's Lebensraum), they have complete contempt for
international law (like Hitler), and they're preparing for war in
every possible way (like Hitler).

Trump has no intention of being this generation's Neville Chamberlain.
He's using the US-China trade negotiations as a tool to derail the
CCP's path to total war.  It will not succeed because a world war in
100% certain anyway, but as I've said many times, and I'm not going to
criticize Trump for trying to prevent a world war, even if war is
certain no matter what he does.

There are plenty of reasons why a business might relocate a factory
from China to Vietnam -- substantially lower labor and real estate
costs, and less of the criminality -- corruption and extortion --
that's embedded in Chinese law.

Trump is not going to expand the trade war to Vietnam because Vietnam
will be our ally.  He's not that stupid, and he completely baffles the
idiots on the left.  Impeach!  Impeach!  Impeach!
I can't see anything even vaguely resembling a strategy, just a series of stunts the world already knows are bluffs.  When the shit hits the fan, and the US economy starts to tank (and it will), Mafia Don will fold like a cheap paper napkin.  
Relocating industries is extremely expensive, and not justified to the plutocrats who run our companies, unless it benefits them personally.   Don't hold your breath for a mass exit.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
(05-23-2019, 03:53 PM)David Horn Wrote: > I can't see anything even vaguely resembling a strategy, just a
> series of stunts the world already knows are bluffs. When the
> shit hits the fan, and the US economy starts to tank (and it
> will), Mafia Don will fold like a cheap paper napkin. Relocating
> industries is extremely expensive, and not justified to the
> plutocrats who run our companies, unless it benefits them
> personally. Don't hold your breath for a mass exit.

Lol! Impeach! Impeach! Impeach! Impeach!
Reply
** 23-May-2019 Gen-Xers and Boomers in Brexit and financial crisis

John Wrote:> The continuing Brexit disaster is a perfect example of what
> happens when Gen-Xers are in charge of running things.

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> John, I've seen you make this statement before, but May, Leadsom
> and Corbyn are all boomers. The problem with Brexit is that even
> though Conservatives generally supported Leave, their MPs are
> still majority Remainers, including May, who don't really want to
> go. May was a bad selection from the start as her incompetence
> since has illustrated well.

> Previously you blamed the CMO crash on X-ers, characterizing the
> Boomers running the issuing firms as some kind of amiable dunces
> who couldn't understand what they were selling. I think you may
> need to revisit your assumptions.

The huge mass of voters today are Millennials and Gen-Xers. May,
Leadsom and Corbyn are all in those positions because of idiotic
Millennial / Gen-Xer policies. You can look at it in two different
ways. One way is that the Boomers know better, but are forced to
implement the policies of their voters. The other way is that the
Boomers are just as stupid as the Xers, and that's the reason they
were elected. Either way, it's the Xers and Millennials who are
deciding the policies.

As for the financial crisis, I've written probably hundreds of
articles on this subject in the last 15 years. Here's a brief
summary:
  • Gen-Xers earned their Masters degrees in "Financial Engineering"
    in the 1990s.


  • In the 2000s, Gen-Xer "financial engineers" created fraudulent
    sub-prime mortgage backed synthetic securities, and sold them because
    they wanted to screw their fathers and their fathers' generation.


  • Their Boomer bosses could not have created these fraudulent
    securities, because had no clue how they worked.


  • However, the Boomer bosses should have known that they were
    fraudulent, because they used slicing and dicing to transform
    high-risk B and C rated securities into nominally equivalent AAA-rated
    securities. The Boomer bosses should have known this was going on and
    stopped it, but they were making too much money.


  • The quintessential Gen-Xer Barack Obama chose not to prosecute the
    bankers -- the Gen-Xers or the Boomers -- but instead chose to benefit
    from the fraud by accepting billions of dollars in contributions for
    elections and other left-wing projects, such as Obamacare. Obama is
    easily the most corrupt president in my lifetime. Trump's honesty is
    a breath of fresh air.
Reply
** 24-May-2019 World View: Kim Jong-un says N. Korea denuclearization talks are over

What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the failed February 28
summit meeting in Hanoi between Donald Trump and North Korea's Kim
Jong-un was the climax of North Korea's entire strategy in US-NK
negotiations.

In other words, Kim's entire "charm offensive" strategy was building
to the February 28 summit, where he expected diplomatic pressure to
force Trump to agree to remove the sanctions with nothing in return.
With that strategy having failed on February 28, Kim has nothing left
except threats.

On Friday, the North Korean news service KCNA posted the following:

Quote: "U.S. Is Accountable for Rupture of Hanoi Summit
Talks: DPRK Foreign Ministry Spokesperson


Pyongyang, May 24 (KCNA) -- A spokesperson for the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea
(DPRK) gave the following answer to a question put by KCNA on May
24, as regards the attempt revealing within the United States to
impute to the DPRK the cause for the rupture of the Hanoi
DPRK-U.S. summit talks:

As we have stated before, the underlying cause of setback of the
DPRK-U.S. summit talks in Hanoi is the arbitrary and dishonest
position taken by the United States, insisting on a method which
is totally impossible to get through.

For the sake of building confidence, a main key to an alleviation
of the DPRK-U.S. hostile relations, we took crucial and meaningful
measures of a strategically decisive nature including the
discontinuation of nuclear test and test-fire of intercontinental
ballistic missile, and we also took a broadminded step towards the
realization of the repatriation of the American POW/MIA remains.

However, the United States did not respond to our goodwill
measures in the same manner, but deliberately pushed the talks to
a rupture by merely claiming the unilateral disarmament of the
DPRK.

Notwithstanding the above facts, the United States attempts to
ascribe the setback of the DPRK-U.S. summit talks in Hanoi to a
completely irrelevant issue and to impute the responsibility for
the ruptured talks to the DPRK. Such American ulterior intention
definitely needs to be brought to the attention.

We hereby make it clear once again that the United States would
not be able to move us even an inch with the device it is now
weighing in its mind, and the further its mistrust and hostile
acts towards the DPRK grow, the fiercer our reaction will be.

Unless the United States puts aside the current method of
calculation and comes forward with a new method of calculation,
the DPRK-U.S. dialogue will never be resumed and by extension, the
prospect for resolving the nuclear issue will be much gloomy.

The U.S. would be well advised to wake up to reality and learn
anew how to have dialogue and negotiation."

The statement doesn't explain what "device" is being referred to. It
also doesn't explain what the "completely irrelevant issue" is,
through I assume it's the request by the American side to provide a
list of all nuclear and missile development sites.

The only "crucial and meaningful measures" that the North Koreans have
taken were easily reversible. The major one was blowing up the
Punggye-ri nuclear test site, but later satellite imagery sgiwed that
the site is still usable, and that several dozen personnel are still
working there.

The US has also taken a reversible "meaningful measure" -- namely
canceling all joint military drills with the South Koreans. However,
some drills have resumed, because ending them hasn't been
reciprocated.

Three weeks ago, the North Koreans tested some short-range ballistic
missiles, claiming that they didn't violate the existing agreement
with the US. However, these are exactly the kinds of missiles that
the North would use to attack Seoul.

The point is that nothing has really changed since the February 28
summit, and nothing is expected to change -- unless the North begins
testing nuclear weapons and missiles again, and that would trigger a
strong reaction.

The NK News has published an article listing the seven things that are
really pissing the North Koreans off. The article is long, but there
are the seven things:
  • 1: FRUSTRATION WITH THE NO-DEAL SUMMIT


  • 2. HATRED OF OBSTRUCTORS - blaming John Bolton and Mike Pompeo


  • 3. IRRITATING BY BAD ADVICE - this refers to the bad advice that
    Kim received that led to the February 28 summit disaster


  • 4. LACK OF PROGRESS ON THE INTER-KOREAN FRONT - blaming South
    Korea for not providing humanitarian assistance (money)


  • 5. EMBARRASSED BY THE “MEDIATOR” - blaming South Korea President
    Moon Jae-in for siding with the US rather than with North Korea


  • 6. OUTRAGE OVER MILITARY DRILLS - fury at the military drills
    between US and South Korea


  • 7. INSULTED BY FOOD AID - fury at South Korea linking food aid to
    the North-South relationship

Another issue is that in April 2018, Indonesia seized the Wise Honest,
North Korea's second-largest cargo ship, because it was transporting a
large amount of coal, in violation of the United Nations sanctions.
On May 9, the US took control of the ship, and is still holding it.
On Tuesday, North Korea's UN ambassador called the seizure illegal,
and threatened: "The United States should deliberate and think over
the consequences its outrageous acts might have on the future
development."

The real question is what will happen if/when the North Koreans resume
tests of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles.

As I've pointed out in the past, China does not want North Korea to
resume these tests. Thanks to the North Korea tests, South Korea has
deployed a THAAD missile defense system that China absolutely hates.
What China wants is for America to withdraw forces from the region,
but North Korea's tests cause the opposite. They also provide support
to Japan's hawks to implement its own nuclear weapons. A resumption
of tests would probably bring more US forces into the region.



--- Sources:

-- U.S. Is Accountable for Rupture of Hanoi Summit Talks: DPRK Foreign
Ministry Spokesperson
http://kcna.kp/kcna.user.article.retriev...List.kcmsf
(KCNA, North Korea, 24-May-2019)


-- North Korea warns U.S. nuclear talks will never resume without 'new
calculation'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-north...SKCN1SU0Z6
(Reuters, 24-May-2019)

-- North Korea’s seven Furies: what’s got Kim Jong Un hot under the
collar?
https://www.nknews.org/2019/05/north-kor...he-collar/
(NK News, 24-May-2019)

-- At rare UN news conference, North Korea warns US over seized ship
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/r...16437.html
(Al-Jazeera, 22-May-2019)

-- North Korea's Joe Biden 'imbecile' insult and what it tells us
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48367261
(BBC, 22-May-2019)
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