Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Oct-2019 World View: Decision to withdraw from NE Syria generates controversy

• Erdogan and Trump meet in June

When President Trump last year announced his intention to withdraw US
troops from northeast Syria, it drew many protests, and was given as
the reason for the resignation of James Mattis as Defense Secretary.

The protests accused Trump of leaving the Kurds to the mercy of Turkey
and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who views all Kurds as
terrorists. However, it was the Kurds, with the help of American
airstrikes, who defeated ISIS and ejected them from their caliphate in
Raqqa. The Kurds claim that the Americans promised to stay and
protect them from Turkey, but the Americans claim that no such promise
was made.

Trump delayed the withdrawal because of the huge controversy, but now
has has issued the following statement:

Quote: "The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive
amounts of money and equipment to do so. They have been fighting
Turkey for decades. I held off this fight for ... almost 3 years,
but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars,
many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT
WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN."

Trump's statement follows a meeting last week with Erdogan, and a
phone call of Sunday with Erdogan. Erdogan threatened to begin a
military invasion of Syria whether the US troops were there or not,
and the withdrawal of American troops prevents a confrontation with
Turkish troops.

Erdogan has said that Turkey will establish a 20-mile "safe zone" or
"buffer zone" in northern Syria, along the border with Turkey, and
will use that to prevent the further influx of Syrian refugees into
Turkey. There are many Kurds and their families living in the
intended buffer zone, and it's not clear how Turkey will handle them.

Another issue is that the successful Kurdish fight against ISIS
resulted in tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners. These ISIS fighters
originally came from other countries, especially European countries,
to join ISIS. As part of the current agreement, Turkey will take
responsibility for all the ISIS fighters held as prisoners.

A White House statement said:

Quote: "The United States Government has pressed France,
Germany, and other European nations, from which many captured ISIS
fighters came, to take them back, but they did not want them and
refused. The United States will not hold them for what could be
many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer. Turkey
will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured
over the past two years."

Trump tweeted:

Quote: "When I arrived in Washington, ISIS was running
rampant in the area. We quickly defeated 100% of the ISIS
Caliphate, ... including capturing thousands of ISIS fighters,
mostly from Europe.

But Europe did not want them back, they said you keep them USA! I
said 'NO, we did you a great favor and now you want us to hold
them in U.S. prisons at tremendous cost. They are yours for
trials.' They ... again said 'NO,' thinking, as usual, that the
U.S. is always the 'sucker,' on NATO, on Trade, on
everything."

South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who almost always
supports Trump, opposed Trump's withdrawal decision.

Quote: "The biggest lie being told by the administration [is]
that ISIS is defeated. This impulsive decision by the president
has undone all the gains we've made, thrown the region into
further chaos. ... I hope I'm making myself clear how shortsighted
and irresponsible this decision is in my view."

Senator Marco Rubio joined Graham and other Republican senators in
criticizing Trump's decision.

---- Sources:

-- Defying Pentagon, Trump Backs Turkish Operation in Syria Targeting
U.S.-backed Kurds
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news...-1.7950055
(Haaretz, 7-Oct-2019)

-- 'Disaster in the making': Fellow Republicans torch Trump's Syria
policy
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/07...ion-037052
(Politico, 7-Oct-2019)

-- Turkey threatens military operation into Syria against
American-backed Kurdish forces
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoint...sh-forces/
(AP, 6-Oct-2019)

-- To set up ‘safe zone,’ US wades into muddled Syria politics
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoint...-politics/
(AP, 8-Sep-2019)

-- US troops start pullout from along Turkey’s border in Syria
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-...-in-syria/
(AP, 7-Oct-2019)

[David Horn]

The Scumbag In Chief strikes again! If the so-called security wing of the GOP continues to back him after this, then he truly has made them into sock puppets, and they need to be removed from the scene in full. I'm no Republican, but I did at least respect their ideas, while disagreeing more often than not. That was then ...

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Oct-2019 World View: Darfur, Syria and Iraq

(10-07-2019, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote: > The Scumbag In Chief strikes again! If the so-called security
> wing of the GOP continues to back him after this, then he truly
> has made them into sock puppets, and they need to be removed from
> the scene in full. I'm no Republican, but I did at least respect
> their ideas, while disagreeing more often than not. That was then
> ...

Lol! Everybody has wars that they love and adore.

During the 2000s, the war in Darfur was the stylish, highly
fashionable war to support because why? Well, nobody said, but I
guess it's because "Black Lives Matter."

So Jesse Jackson complained endlessly about the war in Iraq, but then
complained because we weren't sending troops into the civil war in
Darfur.

Joe Biden was the same. He wanted thousands of troops to be withdrawn
from Iraq and moved into the civil war in Darfur.

Liberals and leftists in Hollywood even visited Darfur and demanded
that Bush send troops.

If we'd actually listened to those idiots, it would have been a
disaster.

So I assume you're one of the ones who whined that Bush should
withdraw troops from fighting the jihadists in Iraq. But now? You're
whining that Trump should NOT withdraw the troops who have been
fighting the jihadists in Syria, which is right next door to Iraq.

I guess the war in Syria has become stylish and fashionable.
Developing Generational Dynamics has always been so fulfilling.

[Warren Dew]

I suspect the captives will be converted to Turkish irregulars to help fight against Iran. But maybe that's just wishful thinking.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone'
  
• Donald Trump announces troop withdrawal from Syria
  
• Turkey commits to responsibility for captured ISIS fighters
  
• The Washington debate over a bloodbath in Syria
  

****
**** Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone'
****


Map showing the buffer zone or safe zone in Syria (Anadolu)

For over a year, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been
demanding to invade Syria and set up a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," a
strip of land 20 miles wide in northern Syria, along the border with
Turkey. The plans have always been blocked by president Donald Trump
and by the presence of American troops in the region, which would mean
that an invasion by Turkish troops would result in a military clash
between two members of Nato.

Erdogan's objectives in setting up the buffer zone include the
following:

• Control Kurds living with the families in northern Syria, whom
  Erdogan considers to be terrorists, connected to the Kurdistan
  Workers' Party (PKK), which is recognized by the US and EU as a
  terrorist group. However, the Kurds in northern Syria were the ones
  that defeated ISIS and ejected them from their caliphate in Raqqa,
  with air support by America.
  
  
• Prevent a further influx of Syrian refugees crossing the border
  from Syria into Turkey. Turkey is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian
  refugees.
  
  
• Resettle two million of the Syrian refugees that Turkey is hosting
  into the buffer zone. Analysts consider the objective to be, at best,
  fanciful.

Erdogan has wanted to put this plan into effect for over a year, but
was prevented from doing so by the Trump and the United States.
However, in the last couple of months, Erdogan has evidently told
Trump that Turkey will go ahead with the invasion whether American
troops are present or not.

****
**** Donald Trump announces troop withdrawal from Syria
****

When President Trump last year announced his intention to withdraw US
troops from northeast Syria, it drew many protests, and was given as
the reason for the resignation of James Mattis as Defense Secretary.

The protests accused Trump of leaving the Kurds to the mercy of Turkey
and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who views all Kurds as
terrorists. However, it was the Kurds, with the help of American
airstrikes, who defeated ISIS and ejected them from their caliphate in
Raqqa. The Kurds claim that the Americans promised to stay and
protect them from Turkey, but the Americans claim that no such promise
was made. The Kurds are now saying that they've been betrayed and
"stabbed in the back."

Trump delayed the withdrawal because of the huge controversy, but now
has has issued the following statement:

<QUOTE>"The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive
amounts of money and equipment to do so. They have been fighting
Turkey for decades. I held off this fight for ... almost 3 years,
but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars,
many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT
WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN."<END QUOTE>

Trump's statement follows a meeting last week with Erdogan, and a
phone call of Sunday with Erdogan. Erdogan threatened to begin a
military invasion of Syria whether the US troops were there or not,
and the withdrawal of American troops prevents a confrontation with
Turkish troops.

****
**** Turkey commits to responsibility for captured ISIS fighters
****


Erdogan and Trump meet in June

Another issue is that the successful Kurdish fight against ISIS
resulted in tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners. These ISIS fighters
originally came from other countries, especially European countries,
to join ISIS. As part of the current agreement, Turkey will take
responsibility for all the ISIS fighters held as prisoners.

A White House statement said:

<QUOTE>"The United States Government has pressed France,
Germany, and other European nations, from which many captured ISIS
fighters came, to take them back, but they did not want them and
refused. The United States will not hold them for what could be
many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer. Turkey
will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured
over the past two years."<END QUOTE>

Trump tweeted:

<QUOTE>"When I arrived in Washington, ISIS was running
rampant in the area. We quickly defeated 100% of the ISIS
Caliphate, ... including capturing thousands of ISIS fighters,
mostly from Europe.

But Europe did not want them back, they said you keep them USA! I
said 'NO, we did you a great favor and now you want us to hold
them in U.S. prisons at tremendous cost. They are yours for
trials.' They ... again said 'NO,' thinking, as usual, that the
U.S. is always the 'sucker,' on NATO, on Trade, on
everything."<END QUOTE>

South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who almost always
supports Trump, opposed Trump's withdrawal decision.

<QUOTE>"The biggest lie being told by the administration [is]
that ISIS is defeated. This impulsive decision by the president
has undone all the gains we've made, thrown the region into
further chaos. ... I hope I'm making myself clear how shortsighted
and irresponsible this decision is in my view."<END QUOTE>

Senator Marco Rubio joined Graham and other Republican senators in
criticizing Trump's decision.

****
**** The Washington debate over a bloodbath in Syria
****

There is a very passionate debate going on in Washington over this
decision, and it's a relief that it's a real debate, not like the
impeachment crap.

Some of the criticism is motivated by hatred of Trump by people who
don't have a clue who the Kurds are. In some cases, people opposing
the withdrawal of troops fighting jihadists in Syria are the same
people who, twelve years ago, demanded the withdrawal of troops
fighting jihadists in Iraq, because they hated George Bush.

Those who sincerely oppose the decision to withdraw have several
reasons.

One reason is that they fear a bloodbath as Turkish forces invade
villages occupied by Kurds and their families in northease Syria.
Erdogan has said that this fear is unjustified, as Turkish forces have
already taken control of of al-Bab and Jarabulus in midwestern Syria,
and there was no Kurdish bloodbath.

Another reason is the loss of American credibility from betraying our
allies, the Kurds. America also abandoned the Kurds in Iraq when they
were attacked by Saddam Hussein.

One of the biggest reasons for concern is the possible resurgence of
ISIS. Although the ISIS Caliphate in Raqqa has been eliminated, there
are still about 10,000 ISIS fighters being held by the Kurds in a
prison camp in the desert, along with tens of thousands of their
family members. The ISIS fighters are still being funded, and in the
chaos of a clash between Turkish and Kurdish forces, they could
regroup and recapture territory.

On Monday, Donald Trump gave the reasons for the withdrawal in several
press conferences on Monday.

He pointed out that it was only small pullout. He said that only a
few dozen soldiers are being pulled back from observation posts in a
region on the border where Turkey will be entering Syria. It's
believed that further pullouts will follow later.

Trump also said that he didn't want American troops to be in Syria for
ever, and he asked if we can't withdraw troops now, then when can we?

Trump said that the Kurds and the Turks have been fighting for
centuries, and it's not up to the Americans to keep them apart
forever. The implication is that he expects a clash, and he doesn't
want the American forces to be involved. In the past, Trump has made
similar remarks about wanting to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, but
political pressures have prevented him from doing it.

This whole debate gets to the heart of America's role in the world
since the end of World War II. As I've discussed many times,
president Harry Truman adopted the Truman Doctrine that made America
policeman of the world. John F. Kennedy repeated and emphasized this
principle in his inauguration speech: Ask not what your country can do
for you; ask what you can do for your country.

The justification given for the Truman Doctrine was as follows: It's
better to pay a small amount of blood and treasure now to resolve a
small clash than to wait and allow the clash to expand into another
world war, with massive costs in blood and treasure. This argument
was made at a time when people said that if Hitler had been killed in
1935, there would have been no world war or Holocaust.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a completely
flawed analysis. World War II and the Holocaust would have occurred
with or without Hitler. A small American expenditure in blood and
treasure will have no effect whatsoever on whether there is another
world war.

So the withdrawal from Syria may have political or legacy
implications, but it won't cause or prevent a major war. The
withdrawal from Syria is all determined by political pressure, and
it's even that political pressures may force Trump to reverse his
withdrawal plans for Syria again.

Sources:

• Defying Pentagon, Trump Backs Turkish Operation in Syria Targeting U.S.-backed Kurds (Haaretz, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• 'Disaster in the making': Fellow Republicans torch Trump's Syria policy (Politico, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• Turkey threatens military operation into Syria against American-backed Kurdish forces (AP, 6-Oct-2019)
  
• To set up ‘safe zone,’ US wades into muddled Syria politics (AP, 8-Sep-2019)
  
• US troops start pullout from along Turkey’s border in Syria (AP, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• Explainer: Turkey set to redraw map of Syrian war once more (Reuters, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• Turkey re-writes international law with “safe zone” invasion doctrine (Jerusalem Post, 6-Oct-2019)
  
• Turkey offers safe zone for 3M Syrians (Anadolu, Turkey, 25-Sep-2019)
  
• Turkey / Erdogan says Syria operation can come at any moment (Hurriyet, Turkey, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• Turkey / Main opposition CHP slams gov’t operation in N Syria (Hurriyet, Turkey, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• Trump threatens Turkey with 'extremely decimated economy' over Syria (Reuters, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• Biggest danger of Syria withdrawal is Trump's lack of a plan (USA Today, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• How ISIS Returns (Atlantic, 7-Oct-2019)
  
• Trump reveals Syria pull-out, warns Turkey (AAP, Australia, 8-Oct-2019)

Related Articles:

• US military moves to protect Syrian Kurds from Turkey's military (03-May-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq (26-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Turkey returns to war with the Kurdish PKK (03-Aug-2015)
  
  
• Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converge on a major military confrontation in al-Bab (26-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war (29-Apr-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Raqqa,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, al-Bab, Jarabulus,
Truman Doctrine

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Tim Randal Walker]

"...the heart of America's role in the world...." Perhaps we are starting to see this questioned because of generational turn over? Consider the generations that remember Word War II. The G.I. remnant is in the Old-old phase. The Silents are old and fading away.

The Boomers remember the Cold War, but the Cold War was not cataclysmic, and ended with a whimper.

The Xers were soldiers in these Endless Wars. I don't know of any reason for Millenials to want the same.


(BTW, I don't think that I would love and adore a war between the USA and Turkey).

[John J. Xenakis]

** 08-Oct-2019 World View: ISIS prisoners of Syria's Kurds become political pawn

President Trump's announcement that American troops would stand aside
when Turkish troops invade Syria to establish a buffer zone or "safe
zone" has highlighted the importance of the ISIS prisoners that are
being guarded by Kurdish soldiers in prison camps.

Reports are varying about the size of the problem. The number of ISIS
fighters being held is between 10,000 and 20,000, according to
different reports. The number of family members is around 50-60,000.
They are being guarded by 75,000 Kurdish soldiers in prison camps.
Most of the ISIS fighters are Iraqis and Syrians.

A few hundred of the ISIS fighters came from Britain, France, Germany
and other European countries. Turkey claims that it will take
responsibility for all the prisoners, but it's far from clear that
they're capable of doing so, even if they really want to.

Donald Trump says that he repeatedly asked the European countries to
repatriate their own citizens, and try them in courts in their own
countries. However, they have repeatedly refused and, according to
Trump, they have told him to take responsibility for all the ISIS
prisoners, and move them to Guantánamo Bay prison, at American
taxpayer expense, which Trump is refusing to do.

So that sets up the issues.

Top Kurdish General Mazloum Kobani Abdi is saying that, because of the
expected Turkish invasion, Kurdish troops are being evacuated from
guarding the ISIS prisoners, and are being redeployed to the border
with Turkey.

One analyst suggested that the Kurds might hire the ISIS fighters and
pay them to fight against the Turks.

It's feared that in the chaos of a Turkish invasion, all Kurdish
prison guards will be redeployed. This would leave the ISIS fighters
free to go anywhere -- to return to Europe, or regroup in Syria.

The Kurds themselves, who say they have been abandoned and betrayed by
the Americans, may form their own alliances with Russia or with
Syria's Bashar al-Assad.

Trump's decision was not a total withdrawal from Syria, but only a
redeployment of 50-100 soldiers at observation posts to other places
in Syria, so that they won't be caught in the crossfire between Turks
and Kurds. There are political pressures to reverse even this
decision, but that would not stop a Turkish invasion, but would only
put the American soldiers in the crossfire.

---- Sources:

-- General Mazloum Kobani Abdi / Top Kurdish general: Watching over
ISIS prisoners now a 'second priority'
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/top...y-n1063496
(NBCNews, 7-Oct-2019)

-- British Isis fighters in Syria 'may be freed if US allows Turkey
invasion'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/o...-to-invade
(Guardian, London, 7-Oct-2019)

-- Trump's shock Syria retreat reverberates as Turkish troops mass
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/o...-uncertain
(Guardian, London, 8-Oct-2019)

---- Related article:

** 8-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191008

[John J. Xenakis]

** 08-Oct-2019 World View: Truman Doctrine

(10-08-2019, 02:13 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > "...the heart of America's role in the world...." Perhaps we are
> starting to see this questioned because of generational turn over?
> Consider the generations that remember Word War II. The
> G.I. remnant is in the Old-old phase. The Silents are old and
> fading away.

> The Boomers remember the Cold War, but the Cold War was not
> cataclysmic, and ended with a whimper.

> The Xers were soldiers in these Endless Wars. I don't know of any
> reason for Millenials to want the same.

> (BTW, I don't think that I would love and adore a war between the
> USA and Turkey).

Every president from Truman to Bush 43 followed the Truman Doctrine.
The Silents and Boomers thought it was important. The Millennials
don't have the vaguest clue what it's about, and couldn't find the
relevant countries on a map. Obama didn't see any use for the Truman
Doctrine. Trump is repudiating it, but that could be because he's
reallocating forces in preparation for the war with China.

[David Horn]

(10-07-2019, 01:35 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 07-Oct-2019 World View: Darfur, Syria and Iraq

(10-07-2019, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote: The Scumbag In Chief strikes again!  If the so-called security wing of the GOP continues to back him after this, then he truly has made them into sock puppets, and they need to be removed from the scene in full.  I'm no Republican, but I did at least respect their ideas, while disagreeing more often than not.  That was then  ...  

So I assume you're one of the ones who whined that Bush should withdraw troops from fighting the jihadists in Iraq.  But now?  You're whining that Trump should NOT withdraw the troops who have been fighting the jihadists in Syria, which is right next door to Iraq.

I guess the war in Syria has become stylish and fashionable.  Developing Generational Dynamics has always been so fulfilling.

My point from day one hasn't changed.  We had absolutely no business walking away in Tora Bora, when al Qaeda was there for the taking.  If we had done that, told the Taliban not to try anything similar in the future and left, none of the post-911 nonsense in the Middle East would have occurred. Iraq?  That was a clusterf*ck from the minute the idea crept into Dick Cheney's head.  We've paid for it 50-fold ever since.  

But once you make the decision to go all-in, the onus shifts to you , and that's where the US finds itself after the Neocon Follies.  We buried ourselves in the region, and, among other things, made and received commitments with the Kurds which they kept in full.  Walking away, leaving them to the tender mercies of Erdogan, would be criminal in and of itself, but classically self defeating if another conflict occurs -- as it probably will at some point.


I assume you see this, but you were having fun be sarcastic.

[pbrower2a]

(10-08-2019, 12:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 08-Oct-2019 World View: Truman Doctrine

(10-08-2019, 02:13 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: >   "...the heart of America's role in the world...." Perhaps we are
>   starting to see this questioned because of generational turn over?
>   Consider the generations that remember Word War II. The
>   G.I. remnant is in the Old-old phase.  The Silents are old and
>   fading away.

>   The Boomers remember the Cold War, but the Cold War was not
>   cataclysmic, and ended with a whimper.

>   The Xers were soldiers in these Endless Wars.  I don't know of any
>   reason for Millenials to want the same.

>   (BTW, I don't think that I would love and adore a war between the
>   USA and Turkey).  

Every president from Truman to Bush 43 followed the Truman Doctrine.
The Silents and Boomers thought it was important.  The Millennials
don't have the vaguest clue what it's about, and couldn't find the
relevant countries on a map.  Obama didn't see any use for the Truman
Doctrine.  Trump is repudiating it, but that could be because he's
reallocating forces in preparation for the war with China.

Trump just asked China to dig up dirt on a son of Joe Biden. China refused.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Oct-2019 World View: US troop withdrawal from Syria

(10-08-2019, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: > My point from day one hasn't changed. We had absolutely no
> business walking away in Tora Bora, when al Qaeda was there for
> the taking. If we had done that, told the Taliban not to try
> anything similar in the future and left, none of the post-911
> nonsense in the Middle East would have occurred. Iraq? That was a
> clusterf*ck from the minute the idea crept into Dick Cheney's
> head. We've paid for it 50-fold ever since.

> But once you make the decision to go all-in, the onus shifts to
> you , and that's where the US finds itself after the Neocon
> Follies. We buried ourselves in the region, and, among other
> things, made and received commitments with the Kurds which they
> kept in full. Walking away, leaving them to the tender mercies of
> Erdogan, would be criminal in and of itself, but classically self
> defeating if another conflict occurs -- as it probably will at
> some point.

> I assume you see this, but you were having fun be sarcastic.

Actually, I didn't see this at all. I just assumed that, like almost
all people on the left, you favored the Iraq war when everyone thought
Saddam was developing WMDs, and then after the war showed that Saddam
was not developing WMDs, you changed your mind and decided that, oh,
you were against the war all along. And let's face it. When you use
phrases like "The Scumbag In Chief," as in your previous post, you're
self-identifying as someone as purely ideological who shouldn't be
taken seriously, and that everything you say is based on your
vitriolic hatred of Trump and Bush, and your devoted love and
adoration of Obama. The result was "having fun being sarcastic." A
guy's gotta have some fun.

But OK, you're saying that's wrong, and that in fact you've been
consistently taking principled positions, based on something like the
following principle:

Principle: Once you make the decision to go all-in, then you have
to stay in, until {some undefined} condition is met.

So let's see how this is applied:

• When Democrats demanded that Bush withdraw from Iraq, you must
  have said that the Democrats are wrong, since Iraq was still fighting
  jihadists in al-Qaeda in Iraq.
  
  
• When Obama withdrew from Iraq, you must have opposed Obama's
  decision (just as you currently oppose Trump's decision to withdraw)
  because Iraq was still fighting jihadists.
  
  
• And so now, following the same principle, you oppose Trump's plans
  to withdraw troops from Syria and Afghanistan.

The principle that once you're "all in" you can never leave is
interesting. We still have troops in Germany since the end of WW II.
We still have troops in South Korea since the end of the Korean War.
In Africa alone, we have 6,000 troops in missions in 53 African
countries. I guess they're there forever.

Are we really "all in" in Syria forever? I assume not, since we've
provided weapons, intelligence and air support to the Kurds for the
purpose of defeating ISIS, but not troops. That doesn't seem like
"all in" to me.

Trump says that the original agreement with the Kurds was that we'd
provide support, weapons and money for 30 to 90 days until ISIS was
defeated, and then we'd leave. Trump says that there was never any
commitment to protect the Kurds forever.

Then there's the question of why it's only America's problem. This is
also Europe's problem -- in fact, it's much worse for them -- so why
can't Britain, France and Germany take responsibility for protecting
the Kurds, and for taking back ISIS prisoners from their own
countries? Why is it up to just the US to protect the Kurds forever,
and to transfer 50,000 prisoners to Guantánamo prison? Why can't the
Europeans take responsibility for them? The Europeans can move all
50,000 prisoners to some Mediterranean island, and handle them by
themselves.

Also, Turkey is a Nato member with a population that includes 14
million Kurds. If Turkey can govern its own 14 million Kurdish
citizens, why can't we allow Turkey to govern 2 million more Kurds in
Syria? Some Kurds in Turkey support the PKK, and some Kurds in Syria
support the PKK. Why can't Turkey govern both? And does it really
make sense for American soldiers to be responsible for years,
centuries, and millennia to come to sit between the Turks and the
Syrian Kurds?

Finally, Erdogan said he was going ahead with the invasion whether
Americans occupy the observation posts or not. So what's the point of
putting them in the crossfire if they're not accomplishing anything?

So that's the reasoning of the "Scumbag in Chief."

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey begins 'Operation Peace Spring' in northern Syria

According to a tweet this morning from Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan:

Quote: "Our Turkish Armed Forces with Syrian National Army
has started the #OperationPeaceSpring against the PKK/YPG and
Daesh terrorist organizations, in northern Syria. Our aim is to
wipe out the terror corridor, trying to be implemented in our
southern border, and bring peace and security to the region.

With Operation Peace Spring, we will eliminate the terror threats
towards our country. With the SAFE ZONE we will establish, we will
provide the return of Syrian refugees to their countries. We will
protect the territorial integrity of Syria and save the region’s
people from the claws of terror."

• Map showing the buffer zone or safe zone in Syria
  (Anadolu)

There are few details available, but so far we know that there are
Turkish airstrikes and Turkish Armed Forces, the latter joining the
Arab forces in the Syrian National Army.

---- Sources:

-- Operation Peace Spring starts in N Syria: Erdogan
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish...gan-147320
(Hurriyet, Ankara, 9-Oct-2019)

-- Operation Peace Spring starts in N Syria: Erdogan
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/ope...an/1607147
(Anadolu, Ankara, 9-Oct-2019)

[David Horn]

Let's see whether the feckless Republicans manage to take action on Turkey. Note: no other Trumpian misstep has gotten strong, or really any, GOP condemnation. This is on Lindsey Graham 100%. If nothing happens, the GOP is truly lost. Where we would go from here is still speculative, but it has to away from this toxic party. To be honest, they are already pretty toxic without all this blood on their hands.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Oct-2019 A logical and analytic gem!

(10-09-2019, 12:48 PM)David Horn Wrote: > Let's see whether the feckless Republicans manage to take action
> on Turkey. Note: no other Trumpian misstep has gotten strong, or
> really any, GOP condemnation. This is on Lindsey Graham 100%. If
> nothing happens, the GOP is truly lost. Where we would go from
> here is still speculative, but it has to away from this toxic
> party. To be honest, they are already pretty toxic without all
> this blood on their hands.

Wow! That's an amazing statement, grounded in well-defined
principles, showing depth of historical and analytical understanding,
and exhibiting a relentless flow of sophisticated logic that would
make Aristotle proud. You should be a college professor, and win a
Nobel prize!

[pbrower2a]

(10-08-2019, 12:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 08-Oct-2019 World View: Truman Doctrine

(10-08-2019, 02:13 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: >   "...the heart of America's role in the world...." Perhaps we are
>   starting to see this questioned because of generational turn over?
>   Consider the generations that remember Word War II. The
>   G.I. remnant is in the Old-old phase.  The Silents are old and
>   fading away.

>   The Boomers remember the Cold War, but the Cold War was not
>   cataclysmic, and ended with a whimper.

>   The Xers were soldiers in these Endless Wars.  I don't know of any
>   reason for Millenials to want the same.

>   (BTW, I don't think that I would love and adore a war between the
>   USA and Turkey).  

Every president from Truman to Bush 43 followed the Truman Doctrine.
The Silents and Boomers thought it was important.  The Millennials
don't have the vaguest clue what it's about, and couldn't find the
relevant countries on a map.  Obama didn't see any use for the Truman
Doctrine.  Trump is repudiating it, but that could be because he's
reallocating forces in preparation for the war with China.

Obama's foreign policy was inertia, which looked sane and effective enough. Communism had disappeared as a meaningful menace to the United States and its allies except in Korea. Face it: Barack Obama was still a young adult when Communism collapsed in central and Balkan Europe. Obama had spent most of his adult life in the post-Cold War world before he became President.

Trump is incompetent and reckless enough to bungle his way into a very nasty war... He may not be planning a major war, but he can certainly get one. He thinks much like the despotic kings who started wars over minor slights, and that is consummately dangerous.

[David Horn]

(10-09-2019, 03:13 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 09-Oct-2019 A logical and analytic gem!

(10-09-2019, 12:48 PM)David Horn Wrote: Let's see whether the feckless Republicans manage to take action on Turkey. Note: no other Trumpian misstep has gotten strong, or really any, GOP condemnation. This is on Lindsey Graham 100%. If nothing happens, the GOP is truly lost. Where we would go from here is still speculative, but it has to away from this toxic party. To be honest, they are already pretty toxic without all this blood on their hands.

Wow!  That's an amazing statement, grounded in well-defined principles, showing depth of historical and analytical understanding, and exhibiting a relentless flow of sophisticated logic that would make Aristotle proud.  You should be a college professor, and win a Nobel prize!

Setting aside the snark, what do you really think?  When we purposely throw an ally under the bus for <insert the reason, if you have one>, that reason had better be a lot stronger than,"... they didn't fight with us in Normandy."

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Oct-2019 What do I really think?

(10-10-2019, 08:42 AM)David Horn Wrote: > Setting aside the snark, what do you really think? When we
> purposely throw an ally under the bus for <insert the reason, if
> you have one>, that reason had better be a lot stronger
> than,"... they didn't fight with us in Normandy."

I'll start by making my usual disclaimer that Generational Dynamics is
like weather forecasting. There are no policy recommendations for
whether we should make it rain or be sunny, nor are there moral
judgments about rain or sun being good or bad. It just tells you
whether it will be rain or sun, and let's you decide what to do about
it. ("I report, you decide.")

Turkey has been planning for this invasion for over a year, and has
been massing forces on the border. It makes absolutely no difference
whether Trump withdraws those 50 observers or not -- sooner or later
(and probably sooner), Erdogan was going through with the invasion
no matter what.

Here's an article that gives Erdogan's position:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/109-ter...gan-147355

My personal opinion is that maybe Trump should have announced it
differently, but that there was no choice except to withdraw the 50
soldiers from the observation posts. Furthermore, the Kurds may well
be playing us, since they know we've never committed to protecting
them for millennia into the future, and anyway, they're Communists.

We live in a world where everyone (except me) is lying, and saying
whatever they want for money, power, sex or votes. You cannot imagine
or fathom how sickened I am by what I see on the news in the world
today. With the rise of Generation-X, there is no morality left
anywhere in the world although, in my opinion, Trump is the closest we
have, especially since he's ignoring the noise and focusing on the
threat from the worst, most immoral, and most despicable liars of all,
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

And to get snarky again, I've been through this too many times.
Anti-war Democrats supported the Iraq war before it happened, but then
later pretended that they had opposed the war all along. So here we
go again. Let's get US soldiers involved in the war between Turks and
Kurds, so that later we can pretend we were against doing anything of
the sort, and then we can impeach again. It gives me a headache and
makes me want to throw up.

So that's what I really think.

[John J. Xenakis]

P.S.: AOC campaigned on withdrawing from Syria, but now she's
changed her mind and warns of "catastrophic consequences":

Quote: "Trump’s sudden withdrawal from northern Syria &
endorsement of Turkey’s actions could have catastrophic
consequences & risks laying the ground for immense violence and
suffering.

We can pursue a strategy to stop our endless wars without
endangering the lives of innocent people. https://t.co/N2YWjEGveX
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) October 8, 2019"

Pathetic.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/aoc-...rible-idea

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey defends Syria invasion, despite almost universal condemnation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European Union threatens Turkey, after Syria invasion
  
• United Nations makes new delusional statements on Syria
  
• Turkey's Erdogan responds to European Union's threat with his own threat
  
• ISIS prisoners in limbo
  
• Anti-war politicians blame Donald Trump
  

****
**** European Union threatens Turkey, after Syria invasion
****


EU Parliament VP Federica Mogherini. She could be a lot hotter if she learned how to smile.

Turkey is receiving almost universal international condemnation for
launching its long-planned military invasion of northern Syria.
Turkey has been massing forces on the border for a year, with the
objective of setting up a buffer zone in northern Syria, and
neutralizing the PKK terrorists living there. In the long run, Turkey
would also like to relocate some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees
that it's hosting into the buffer zone.

Officials from countries around the world are demanding that Turkey
end the invasion immediately.

The most interesting condemnation is a speech by EU Parliament VP
Federica Mogherini, in which she made the following farcical
statement:

<QUOTE>"The Turkish operation into north-east Syria can open
a new dramatic chapter in the already very dark history of the
Syrian war.

The potential consequences of such military action are clear to
everyone – at least are very clear to us. The repercussions can be
extremely serious in humanitarian, military, political and
strategic terms. For all these reasons, we call upon Turkey to
immediately stop its unilateral military action. ...

But Turkey’s legitimate security concerns should be addressed
through political and diplomatic means, not military action, in
accordance with international humanitarian law. We urge all to
always ensure the protection of civilians and unhindered, safe and
sustainable humanitarian access throughout Syria.

Our goal remains to help the Syrian people build a united,
sovereign, democratic and inclusive Syria.

A sustainable solution to the Syrian crisis will not come through
military means. I think that this is very clear to all, at least
this is very clear to us Europeans. The only way to achieve peace
and security in Syria is the full implementation of the UN
Security Council Resolution 2254 under UN auspices."<END QUOTE>

I suppose that I shouldn't be so hard on Mogherini. After all what
else can she say? She's just a puppet saying what she has to say.
If she said something different, she'd just be replaced by a different
puppet.

****
**** United Nations makes new delusional statements on Syria
****

Mogherini's statement is completely delusional. UN Security Council
Resolution 2254, adopted on December 15, 2015, says that everyone in
Syria should stop fighting and expresses support for "a Syrian-led
political process that is facilitated by the United Nations and,
within a target of six months, establishes credible, inclusive and
non-sectarian governance and sets a schedule and process for drafting
a new constitution, and further expresses its support for free and
fair elections." This is totally laughable.

Against that, we have the psychopathic, sociopathic monster president
Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who freely uses barrel bombs, chlorine gas
and Sarin gas on women and children, in order to exterminate his
political enemies, and who is supported by Iran, who wants a clear
path to Israel and the Mediterranean Sea, and which routinely uses
torture, rape, beatings and murder itself.

Al-Assad is also supported by Russia, which doesn't care about
al-Assad's use of chemical weapons and genocide, as long as it gets
its military bases at Tartus and Hmeimim. Russia, which has no
hesitation to commit genocide when it's convenient, also loves the
Kurds because they're Communists.

Since 2012, the United Nations Security Council has put forth one
farcial resolution after another. Bashar al-Assad, Russia and Iran
have used these as cover for their use of barrel bombs, chlorine gas,
Sarin gas and genocide of women and children. Bashar al-Assad has
made fools of one credulous UN envoy after another -- Kofi Annon,
Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura. Obviously, the same kind of
thing is happening now with Mogherini. If United Nations officials
didn't have delusions, then they would have any thoughts at all.

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan responds to European Union's threat with his own threat
****

So everyone, including Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, knows
that UN Security Council Resolution 2254 is completely farcical. But
as we said, what else can Mogherini, except her ridiculously
delusional statement.

Turkey has been hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees, and 300,000 of
them are Syrian Kurds, who have fled the violence of Syria's civil
war. Erdogan has frequently expressed anger at the EU for not
supporting Turkey, which is a Nato member, although after years of
negotiations, the EU did agree to pay some financial assistance (3
billion euros) for the refugees. However, in her speech, Mogherini
threatened to limit this financial assistance.

Erdogan responded on Thursday in a speech to his governing party:

<QUOTE>"The objective of our operation is to avoid the
establishment of a terror state in the south. That’s what we are
working for.

Just like other operations conducted by Turkey, the objective of
the Peace Spring is to contribute to the territorial integrity and
political unity of [4]Syria. It’s quite obvious that one can talk
about the territorial integrity and political unity of this
country while one-fourth of its territories are under the
occupation of the PKK/YPG."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan referred to the 300,000 Syrian Kurdish refugees that Turkey is
hosting, and the Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) political
party in Turkey.]

<QUOTE>"Let’s first see this. They are still in our
country. Why don’t we talk about it? America does not see this,
nor does the EU. To whom will we explain all these? Then we should
tell this to our own people. There is a political party at the
parliament which takes support from a terror organization. They
will never see but we will let them see one way or another.

You [the HDP] cannot describe our operation as an invasion. You
cannot depict our army as an invading force."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan responded to Mogherini's threat to cut off financial
assistance to Turkey for hosting the 3.6 million refugees with a
threat of his own:

<QUOTE>"Hey, European Union! Pull yourself together. I repeat
it: If you try to describe our operation as an invasion, we will
do what’s easy for us: we will open the doors and send 3.6 million
refugees to you. ...

You have not given anything to us for our efforts (to host
refugees). It was us who spent $40 billion. We’ll continue our
path by spending the same amount of money, but we will then open
the doors.

You cannot remain silent when terror organizations attack
Turkey."<END QUOTE>

****
**** ISIS prisoners in limbo
****


Syria camps for displaced people. Families of ISIS prisoners are in Roj, Ain ISSA, and al-Hol. (BBC)

Thousands of displaced Syrians are living in temporary camps. The
families of suspected ISIS prisoners are help in three of them, Roj,
Ain ISSA, and al-Hol, which house 1,700, 12,900 and 68,000 people,
respectively. Al-Hol is about 60 km from Turkey and so would not be
in the proposed buffer zone. More than 94% of the people at al-Hol are
women and children, and 11,000 are foreign nationals.

Many of the ISIS prisoners are being guarded by Kurdish forces, and
their disposition is now the subject of finger-pointing. Donald Trump
says that some EU officials have asked him to transfer them to
Guantánamo prison, which he refused. Trump has asked the EU nations
to take back their own citizens that went to Syria to join ISIS, but
they're refusing.

Mogherini is demanding that Turkey take full responsibility for them,
but whether that will happen remains to be seen.

****
**** Anti-war politicians blame Donald Trump
****

Mostly left-wing politicians in Washington are blaming Donald Trump
for causing the invasion by withdrawing 50 soldiers from observation
posts in Syria near the Turkey border. This is laughable, considering
that Turkey has been massing forces on the border for a year in
preparation for this invasion, and 50 troops would have made no difference.

Trump says that the original agreement with the Kurds was that we'd
provide support, weapons and money for 30 to 90 days until ISIS was
defeated, and then we'd leave. Trump says that there was never any
commitment to protect the Kurds forever.

Now we're hearing that Democrats want US soldiers to intervene to protect
the Kurds. I've been through this too many times. Anti-war democrats
supported the Iraq war before it happened, but then later pretended
that they had opposed the war all along.

So here we go again. Let's get US soldiers involved in the war
between Turks and Kurds, so that later we can pretend we were against
doing anything of the sort, and then we can impeach again.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.

Although all of those wars are coming with absolutely certainty, it's
impossible to predict the exact scenarios that will bring them about.
One possible scenario is that they will be triggered by a war in
northern Syria.

One thing is certain: World War III will occur whether the 50 US
soldiers are withdrawn or not.

Sources:

• Syria / Turkey / Speech by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini at the European Parliament plenary session on the situation in northern Syria (Avrupa, EU, 10-Oct-2019)
  
• Security Council Unanimously Adopts Resolution 2254 (2015), Endorsing Road Map for Peace Process in Syria, Setting Timetable for Talks (United Nations, 18-Dec-2015)
  
• Turkish op to avoid a terror state in Syria: Erdoğan (Hurriyet, Ankara, 10-Oct-2019)
  
• Turkey's Syria offensive explained in four maps (BBC, 9-Oct-2019)
  
• World reacts to Turkey's military operation in northeast Syria (Al-Jazeera, 10-Oct-2019)
  
• AOC Suddenly Flip-Flops, Now Thinks Pulling Out Of Syria Is Terrible Idea (ZeroHedge, 9-Oct-2019)

Related Article:

• Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone' (08-Oct-2019)
  
  
• Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib (28-Oct-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
European Union, Federica Mogherini, Nato,
UN Security Council Resolution 2254,
Russia, Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase,
Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Roj, Ain ISSA, al-Hol, Guantánamo prison

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[David Horn]

(10-10-2019, 03:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: P.S.: AOC campaigned on withdrawing from Syria, but now she's
changed her mind and warns of "catastrophic consequences":

Quote:    "Trump’s sudden withdrawal from northern Syria &
   endorsement of Turkey’s actions could have catastrophic
   consequences & risks laying the ground for immense violence and
   suffering.

   We can pursue a strategy to stop our endless wars without
   endangering the lives of innocent people. https://t.co/N2YWjEGveX
   — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) October 8, 2019"

Pathetic.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/aoc-...rible-idea

You know, there is a lot of sunlight between withdrawing in an organized fashion, with all one's allies onboard, and this.  What about the 1,000 hardcore ISIS fighters who will undoubtedly vaporize from the scene?  No thought needed, apparently.  

At the very least, the Kurds deserved a few weeks advance notice to make real plans and execute on them.  Telling people to piss off starting tomorrow is criminal, when they are the ones who are going to die. Trump just figures he saved a few million dollars -- his one and only priority.