Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 01-Oct-2019

(10-01-2019, 06:37 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > On a separate note It is becoming increasingly obvious that both
> the left-wing and right-wing boomers on these forums will never
> listen to common sense, therefore I've decided to exit stage-left
> this board.

Maurice Chevalier, singing in the movie Gigi:

The longing to end a stale affair
Until you find out ... she doesn't care!
I'm glad that I'm not young any more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RZEj7t1EaA

[John J. Xenakis]

** 01-Oct-2019 World View: The Future

(09-30-2019, 09:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: > 2. [2020s: World War III] The chance of a total war, and that's
> what you postulate, is slim to none. Even the insane understand
> mass suicide.

I really have to laugh every time this happens. This is supposed to
be a "generational theory" forum, and yet not a single person in this
forum considers generational theory to be valid --- that is, not a
single person except one, of course, ME. It's bizarrely ironic that
I'm the only person in this generational theory forum that considers
generational theory to be valid.

At any rate, generational theory makes it clear that WW III is
overdue, but you don't need generational theory to see that. There
were two world wars in the last century, plus massive additional wars
in Asia, the Mideast, Africa, and pretty much in every region of the
world. Furthermore, there have been massive wars in every continent,
in every nation, in every region of the world in every century for
millennia. There is absolutely no reason why this century should be
any different, and several reasons why this century should be worse.

I have no idea what you mean by "mass suicide." No army goes to war
thinking that they're going to lose. To the contrary, they believe
(or they've been convinced) quite delusionally that they'll win
quickly. I've written quite a bit on this subject. An army launches
a war with public cheering and a feeling of euphoria, because finally
the army will quickly right numerous wrongs that the society has been
suffering at the hands of the enemy, and victory will be quick and
painless. Certainly the Chinese feel that way about Japan and Taiwan,
as long as their massive missile deployment can keep the US at bay.

Really, this is just so completely ridiculous. People like you claim
that the world is coming to an end because of "climate change." But
believe that a world war is coming? Oh no, that'll never happen.
That's impossible. So believe in the tooth fairy, or whatever you
want, but WW III is coming.

(09-30-2019, 09:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: > 4. [2030s: Singularity] Again, this is wildly optimistic (or
> pessimistic, depending on your bent). We ae no where near this
> possibility today, so 11 years is an unobtainable goal.

> You fundamentally misconstrue the Singularity with AI. The two
> are completely different. The Singularity implies sentience,
> which is far beyond AI. Yes, AI will be handling many tasks that
> used to be assigned to humans in the 2030s, but decision making
> isn't one of them.

The Singularity has nothing to do with AI? Lol! "Sentience" is a
completely meaningless term, used by people who don't understand the
rapid ongoing advances in the world of AI. Just look at the advances
in deep learning, robotics, reasoning, and autonomous self-driving
vehicles, and anyone can see that the Singularity is coming soon.

If an army of AI robots kills you and everyone around you, then you'll
be just as dead whether the AI robots were "sentient" or not.

I found an article that discusses some recent advances in AI,
which you may find interesting:

** The 8 Incredible Advances In Artificial Intelligence To Expect
** https://chatbotnewsdaily.com/the-8-incre...51474189e2

I recently re-posted an article that I wrote in 2005 on the
Singularity:

** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...151228.htm

In that article, I didn't mention "sentience," which is a completely
meaningless term outside of a religious context.

However, what I discussed at length in the article is the subject of
creativity. I wanted to address the objection that "computers can do
what they're programmed to do, but they can't be creative, and do what
they aren't programmed to do." So I wrote a lot about how computers
can be even more creative than humans.

So, go back into your bubble and worry about carbon emissions, lean
back and wait to burn up within 11 years. Meanwhile, those of us in
the real world will try to make plans for dealing with WW III and the
Singularity, which of course means that we'll probably burn up in far
less than 11 years.

[Ragnarök_62]

(10-01-2019, 09:45 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(09-30-2019, 10:00 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Uh, so when is my party[Democrat] going to get its act together? Like I told Eric, Trump is going to win if we Democrats keep yakking about culture war crap and whatever Trump's latest tweet is about nstead of kitchen table issues. 

Winners:  Single payer health care,minimum wage increase,worker's rights, criminal justice reform. [Get rid of all of these stupid war on drugs felonies], legalize weed on the federal level, stop all of these wars of choice, and pop the cap on Social Security. If the cap is popped, that's like 85% of the funds needed to make Social Security "Solvent". We need to stop paying attention to Trump and start paying attention to what is really important.

I agree with this in full, though ignoring Trump is not wise.  He's done the opposite of almost everything on your list, and making that obvious to hoi polloi is part of the solution.

Mafia Don is not your friend, or mine, or theirs either.  If that sinks-in, the rest is simple.

Yeah, I got a bit carried away because of the current blather of what is covered from Trumper is more of the outrage culture. Emotions never result in workable solutions. 

So, to amend so to speak.   We Dems need to focus on real stuff like what he did to the EPA, his tax cuts, and I mean why not do a data dive and see how much money Trumper has made by having White House functions in his properties. I'm sure there are other things like H2B handouts as well.

[Ragnarök_62]

(09-29-2019, 09:44 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Globalist scums who oppose aggressive war with Iran which would restore world respect for the US: Behold, according to this article Trump's firing of Bolton would have the opposite effect than assumed regarding hawkishness regarding and Iran war, according to Rubio.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/1...er-1492641

You lose boomers, the rise of the American empire is inevitable, Mwa, ha ha ha.

Attacking Iran is one of the dumbest things we could do. Iran would blow the Mideast up with those fancy drones and missiles.  After that, say goodbye world economy.   Bolton and Rubio are moronic Neocons who've supported all of these wars of choice.
Face it, man.  Iran has a big red button now.  The name of the button is called "derivatives".

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/sa...illed.html

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
  
• Hong Kong violence may be reaching a boiling point
  

****
**** Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
****


Riot police fire projectiles against protesters in Hong Kong on Tuesday (Sky News)

A protester in Hong Kong was shot by a policeman at point-blank
range on Tuesday. He's in the hospital in critical condition. The
police say he shot in self-defense.

This was the highlight of the worst day of violence since the
pro-democracy protests began 17 weeks ago.

The violence in Hong Kong was a vivid contrast to Tuesday's activities
in Beijing. Tuesday was the 70th anniversary of the founding
of Communist China, and there were massive military parades and
highly nationalistic speeches the entire day.

****
**** Hong Kong violence may be reaching a boiling point
****

Something that's been coming across for weeks in the TV coverage of
the Hong Kong riots, much more than in the print coverage, is that
they are becoming much more vitriolic and tribal. The police hate the
protesters, and the protesters hate the police, especially after
today's events, and there's no turning back.

I've been following a lot of anti-government protests for many years,
and I've developed a feeling for which ones are more serious than
others.

So, for example, the recent pro- and anti-Brexit protests in London
were all just kids having fun. The same is true of just about any
protest on the mall in Washington DC.

Even violence doesn't necessarily trigger the worst conflicts. I'm
thinking of the various student protests in Iran. The thugs in Iran's
security forces always go out and beat, rape, torture and jail
innocent protesters, but once the period of protest end, there doesn't
seem to be any residual violence.

Even the Hong Kong umbrella protests in 2014 did not seem to be a
major problem. Everyone seemed to follow the unwritten rules of
peaceful protests: The protesters are allowed to chant, block roads,
occupy buildings, and even do a little bit of property damage. The
police are allowed use physical force, water cannons, tear gas, and
even mass arrests. At the end of the day, everybody has had fun, and
can go home and brag about it.

But my view is that the Hong Kong protests are becoming increasingly
vitriolic, on a trend line for a lot more violence. At the social
media level, many mainland postings encourage violence against the
protesters, and Hong Kong postings are contemptuous of mainlanders.
Protesters and police have been describing each other in increasingly
vitriolic and hate-filled terms.

And recall that in mid-July, pro-democracy protesters and ordinary
civilians were violently attacked by unidentified men in white shirts,
later identified as criminal members of "Triad" gangs. The attack was
well-organized, and it is believed that the attacks were organized by
Beijing security forces, who didn't want to be seen getting their own
hands dirty. The Hong Kong police watched the attacks, but made no
attempt to intervene, or to respond to injured civilians begging for
help.

As I've written in the past, Hong Kong is on the fault line between
northern and southern China. ( "22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China"
)

Southeast China was the starting point of the last two massive Chinese
anti-government rebellions. Mao Zedong's Long March that led to the
Communist revolution civil war (1934-49) started in the south. The
massive Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), which was led by a Christian
convert who believed he was the son of God and the younger brother of
Jesus, began in the south and spread north.

The ethnic fault line between north and south is just as active today
as it ever was, and China is overdue for a new north-south rebellion.
That's why the increasing signs of hatred and vitriol between
protesters and police in Hong Kong are significant.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials have been relatively
restrained so far. They had hoped that the Hong Kong protests would
fizzle before the October 1 anniversary celebration. They were
restrained, with the result that the Hong Kong riots overshadowed the
anniversary celebrations in Beijing to some extent.

What next? The Hong Kong anti-Beijing activists have hardened their
positions, and they claim that they will continue their violent
protests. The CCP officials are also hardening their positions.
Their only hope is that the protests will fizzle in the months to
come. But nobody believes that would end them permanently. The CCP
officials know that at some point in the next few months they're going
to have to send in the army to bash heads.

Sources:

• Hong Kong protester shot as China marks its 70th anniversary (AP, 1-Oct-2019)
  
• Hong Kong police shoot protester as violent clashes escalate (Al Jazeera, 1-Oct-2019)
  
• Hong Kong protests: Riot police fire live rounds at anti-China rallies as Communist Party celebrates 70th anniversary (Sky News, 1-Oct-2019)

Related articles:

• UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots (04-Jul-2019)
  
  
• Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China (22-Jun-2019)
  
  
• MIT criticizes 'toxic atmosphere' targeting Chinese students (30-Jun-2019)
  
  
• Book Announcement: World View: War between China and Japan - by John J. Xenakis (28-Jun-2019)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, umbrella protests,
Mao Zedong, Long March, Taiping Rebellion

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[pbrower2a]

After the pride of accomplishment starts to wear off for leadership that gets the first atom, and in turn hydrogen, bomb, that leadership gets scared of other powers getting it. That could be an obvious rival (for India, Pakistan is obvious) or a current ally that has hurt feelings and a desire for a bit more independence.

If you want my idea of what got the Soviet Union to disarmament talks with the United States it was that the Soviet Union had as much fear of members of the Warsaw Pact getting their own nukes. The US and the USSR had a common interest in ensuring that the Soviet Union was the only country in the Warsaw Pact to have nukes.

I can just imagine the sort of conversation that a Soviet ambassador had with a puppet leader -- "If you know what is good for you you will sign this treaty".

Nukes are scary even to the powers that wield them. Sure, we can take out Nizhni Novograd, but they will take out Chicago... or vice-versa. The best defense against nukes could be that leaders recognize that they have far too much to lose in a nuclear exchange.

[David Horn]

(10-01-2019, 07:55 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(10-01-2019, 09:45 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(09-30-2019, 10:00 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Uh, so when is my party[Democrat] going to get its act together? Like I told Eric, Trump is going to win if we Democrats keep yakking about culture war crap and whatever Trump's latest tweet is about nstead of kitchen table issues. 

Winners:  Single payer health care,minimum wage increase,worker's rights, criminal justice reform. [Get rid of all of these stupid war on drugs felonies], legalize weed on the federal level, stop all of these wars of choice, and pop the cap on Social Security. If the cap is popped, that's like 85% of the funds needed to make Social Security "Solvent". We need to stop paying attention to Trump and start paying attention to what is really important.

I agree with this in full, though ignoring Trump is not wise.  He's done the opposite of almost everything on your list, and making that obvious to hoi polloi is part of the solution.

Mafia Don is not your friend, or mine, or theirs either.  If that sinks-in, the rest is simple.

Yeah, I got a bit carried away because of the current blather of what is covered from Trumper is more of the outrage culture. Emotions never result in workable solutions. 

So, to amend so to speak.   We Dems need to focus on real stuff like what he did to the EPA, his tax cuts, and I mean why not do a data dive and see how much money Trumper has made by having White House functions in his properties. I'm sure there are other things like H2B handouts as well.

Great idea on the forensic accounting.  The NY Times already did a lot of this, so just add the stuff they missed.  His greed head behavior has to be in the 8 to 9 figures by now.

No one likes to be a sucker, and our Mafioso in Chief is working that hard.  The ones who won't budge even when he's stealing them blind are a lost cause.  Best to step over them on the sidewalk.

[Warren Dew]

(10-01-2019, 06:37 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Putin and Xi will never accept globalist nuclear disarmament. The solution is large-scale proliferation to friendly nations and mass buildup of Nuclear Missile and nuclear offensive capabilities. Globalists prefer to virtue signal. The Russian/Chinese method is FAR more efficient than the Current American Method.

Why is the solution proliferation, rather than just building up our own arsenal?

[Warren Dew]

(10-01-2019, 06:00 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I really have to laugh every time this happens.  This is supposed to
be a "generational theory" forum, and yet not a single person in this
forum considers generational theory to be valid --- that is, not a
single person except one, of course, ME.  It's bizarrely ironic that
I'm the only person in this generational theory forum that considers
generational theory to be valid.

I was pretty bemused by his comment too.  That said, you're not the only one here who considers generational theory to be valid; Eric and I certainly do, among others.  Just because we don't agree with every detail of your predictions doesn't mean we don't consider the overall theory to be valid.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-Oct-2019 World View: Gloomy October

After the Dow Jones Industrial Average has sold off 800+ points in the
last two days, stock futures have gone negative in the last hour, this
morning (Thursday).

Major market crashes in the past have occurred during the month of
October, and there is speculation that this will be another such
October. It's worth pointing out that the same speculation occurs
almost every October, and the speculation fizzles by mid-October.

This year, such speculation refers to the global economic slowing,
with China and Germany leading the way. In addition, there's no end
in sight for US-China trade disputes, or for Japan-South Korea trade
disputes. For China, there's no end in sight to the Hong Kong riots.
These factors are causing many companies to move their supply chains
out of China and into other countries like Vietnam, and to move their
money out of Hong Kong into Singapore. Such actions may be beneficial
in the long run, but in the short run they're adding to concerns that
this will be a gloomy October.

---- Sources:

** Why Does the Stock Market Go Lower in October?
** https://finance.zacks.com/stock-market-l...-6428.html


** Stocks just delivered a reminder about October’s reputation for
volatility
** https://www.marketwatch.com/story/histor...2019-10-01

[pbrower2a]

(10-03-2019, 07:24 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 03-Oct-2019 World View: Gloomy October

After the Dow Jones Industrial Average has sold off 800+ points in the
last two days, stock futures have gone negative in the last hour, this
morning (Thursday).

Major market crashes in the past have occurred during the month of
October, and there is speculation that this will be another such
October.  It's worth pointing out that the same speculation occurs
almost every October, and the speculation fizzles by mid-October.

This year, such speculation refers to the global economic slowing,
with China and Germany leading the way.  In addition, there's no end
in sight for US-China trade disputes, or for Japan-South Korea trade
disputes.  For China, there's no end in sight to the Hong Kong riots.
These factors are causing many companies to move their supply chains
out of China and into other countries like Vietnam, and to move their
money out of Hong Kong into Singapore.  Such actions may be beneficial
in the long run, but in the short run they're adding to concerns that
this will be a gloomy October.

---- Sources:

** Why Does the Stock Market Go Lower in October?
** https://finance.zacks.com/stock-market-l...-6428.html


** Stocks just delivered a reminder about October’s reputation for
     volatility
** https://www.marketwatch.com/story/histor...2019-10-01

1. In the past, September and October were the times in which many investors were selling out to get the funds to send their kids to expensive private schools and the first-rate colleges that were then strictly preserves for the sorts of people who owned securities. Selling off securities is one way in which to get ready cash. 

2. Psychic mood? The days are shortening, which affects people with mood disorders relating to the day-night divide. Even if temperatures do not drop off precipitously, the chill of autumn enters the air. Summer fun is over, and autumn doesn;t have good substitutes.

To be sure, there are places, typically in the southern tier of the US, in which the weather of early autumn is much more pleasant than is summer weather -- but that is not how things used to be before millions migrated to Arizona, Texas, Florida, and southern California.  

3. Hurricanes. September and October are peak hurricane seasons, and a really-bad hurricane season can compel lenders to write off huge volumes of real-estate loans.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-Oct-2019 World View: The Brexit Game and Boris Johnson's Rube Goldberg proposal

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed a new solution
to the problem of allowing goods to pass over the border between
Ireland and Northern Ireland without requiring customs checks.

The proposal for the last few months has been the "Northern Ireland
backstop," which would keep the boundary open, but would require
either that Northern Ireland become part of Ireland, or that the EU
have control of the UK's laws and courts. Obviously that will never
work.

In fact, it's clear that there is no possibility for the UK to leave
the EU with a "deal," since no acceptable deal exists. The "deal" is
all a part of the game:

• Boris Johnson knows that no deal is possible, but he doesn't
  want to be blamed for a "no deal Brexit," so he wants to be able to
  blame the EU when no deal is reached.
  
  
• The EU knows that no deal is possible, but they don't want to be
  blamed for a "no deal Brexit," so they keep promising that they'll evaluate
  any "deal" that the UK puts forth, even though none is
  acceptable.
  
  
• Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn wants the entire Brexit plan to be
  abandoned completely, but doesn't want to be blamed if Brexit is
  canceled, since that would mean that he ignored the wishes of millions
  of people who voted for Brexit. So he keeps demanding that Johnson
  produce new deals, and then he vitriolically criticizes every
  proposal, and demands a new one. Alternatively, he's demanding a new
  national referendum, in the hope that the vote in a new referendum,
  the vote will be "no".

In summary, there are only two possibilities, Brexit without a deal,
and Remain. A "deal" is impossible, and all sides are using it a ploy
to get what the want, and avoid being blamed.

• Rube Goldberg device to put toothpaste on a toothbrush.
  The device is operated by pushing the button at step A, and the
  toothpaste reaches the toothbrush after step P.

So on Wednesday, Boris Johnson put forth a Rube Goldberg proposal with
so many parts that it's almost incomprehensible. Johnson's part of
the game is that he has to make a proposal that's different from
previous proposals, and this is it.

He's saying to the EU that if they reject it, there will be a no-deal
Brexit on October 31.

The EU responded: "We want more details. Send us another proposal."
The game goes on.

There are some scenarios where the October 31 date will be extended,
although a lot of people in the EU and UK are saying that they've been
debating this for three years, they're sick of it, and they just want
to get it over with, even if "it" is a no-deal Brexit.

---- Source:

-- Brexit: New UK plan for Northern Ireland to stay in single market
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49909309
(BBC, 2-Oct-2019)

---- Related article:

** 25-Sep-19 World View -- The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190925

[Warren Dew]

I think Johnson's deal is more attractive to the EU, including Ireland, than no deal at all, but less attractive than forcing the UK to remain in the EU. They're just buying time to see whether the UK will actually exit on October 31, or whether the UK will request yet another extension.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 04-Oct-2019 World View: Hong Kong face mask ban triggers more anger

It's just past midnight on Saturday morning in Hong Kong,
and a new "emergency" law has just taken effect that makes it
illegal for anyone taking part in a protest to wear a face mask.
Violating this law can be punished with one year in jail.

When the law was announced on Friday afternoon, masses of young
people went to convenience stores and bought face masks,
and began blocking roads wearing these face masks.

Live shots from Hong Kong on the BBC show large numbers of protesters
blocking intersections after midnight, wearing face masks.

It's not known how the police will enforce the face mask rule on
Saturday. Will they start ripping people's face masks off? Will
there be mass arrests of people wearing face masks?

The protests are being led by young people who see 2047 as just around
the corner, at which time Hong Kong will lose all its autonomy and
just be another region under the violent thumb of the Chinese
Communist Party. Any young person would be wondering how he or she
could get married and bring children into the world, if it means
making their children slaves of the CCP.

---- Source:

-- Hong Kong: Face mask ban prompts thousands to protest
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49939173
(BBC, 4-Oct-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 04-Oct-2019 World View: Hong Kong face mask fury

I always say that it's impossible to overestimate the stupidity
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and banning face masks is
the latest example of the CCP's sheer stupidity.

The BBC is interviewing Hong Kong protesters who are INFURIATED by the
face mask ban, but are wearing them anyway.

How could the CCP be so stupid that they didn't know this in advance?
All they had to do was ask.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Oct-2019 World View: North Korea cancels nuclear talks with US

It hasn't been in the news, but there have been ongoing meaningless
low-level nuclear negotiations between the US and North Korea. This
last week, they were being held in Stockholm, Sweden.

On Saturday, the North Korean negotiator Kim Myong Gil announced that
North Korea was breaking off the discussions:

Quote: "The negotiations have not fulfilled our expectations
and finally broke off."

He also accused the US of coming "empty-handed" to the negotiations.

As I've been writing for two years, North Korea has absolutely no
intention of ending its development of nuclear weapons and long-range
ballistic missiles. However, North Korea has suspended testing during
the past two years as part of its "charm offensive" to convince Donald
Trump to reduce or end the sanctions.

In 2007, North Korea promised to end nuclear missile development if
President Bush removed the sanctions. President Bush did so, but then
North Korea immediately resumed the nuclear development and testing,
thoroughly humiliating the US and the West.

Both North Korea (with respect to nuclear missile development) and
China (with respect to theft of intellection property) have been using
every trick, subterfuge, deceit and lie possible to trick President
Trump into agreeing to remove sanctions without making any
concessions. So far, Trump has refused to fall for those lies again.

So when Kim Myong Gil on Saturday accused the US of coming
"empty-handed" to the negotiations, he undoubtedly meant that the US
was refusing to agree to reduce or remove sanctions.

Several days ago, North Korea tested what it called a new type
of submarine-launched ballistic missile, presumably violating
their agreement with Trump.

Unless the North Koreans reverse course and resume the meaningless
negotiations with the US, the next step will probably be for North
Korea to test a nuclear weapon again. That should generate quite a
bit of excitement.

---- Sources:

-- Top N.K. nuclear envoy says working-level talks with U.S. break
down
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20191006000200325
(Yonhap, 5-Oct-2019)

-- North Korea and US nuclear talks break down in less than a day
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49947836
(BBC, 5-Oct-2019)

-- North Korea breaks off nuclear talks with US
https://www.dw.com/en/north-korea-breaks...a-50712028
(DeutscheWelle, 5-Oct-2019)

---- Related Article:

** 17-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181117

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Oct-2019 World View: State Dept. contradicts claim that North Korea talks have broken down

State Dept. spokesman Morgan Ortagus said the following in response to
the North Korean statement that nuclear negotiations had broken down:

Quote: "The early comments from the DPRK delegation do not
reflect the content or the spirit of today’s 8 1/2 hour
discussion. The U.S. brought creative ideas and had good
discussions with its DPRK counterparts.

In the course of the discussions, the U.S. delegation reviewed
events since the Singapore summit, and discussed the importance of
more intensive engagement to solve the many issues of concern for
both sides.

The U.S. delegation previewed a number of new initiatives that
would allow us to make progress in each of the four pillars of the
Singapore joint statement.

The United States and the DPRK will not overcome a legacy of 70
years of war and hostility on the Korean Peninsula through the
course of a single Saturday.

These are weighty issues, and they require a strong commitment by
both countries. The United States has that
commitment."

She also said that Sweden had invited the two sides to return for
another round of meetings in two weeks, and that the U.S. had
accepted. If true, then the meaningless negotiations can continue.
However, there is no word that the North Koreans accepted.

Guest Wrote:> But would Trump do anything if the North Koreans started test
> firing missiles again? NK is just a sideshow. The main event is
> China. Trump might just maintain sanctions and let the North
> Koreans pound sand.

China would be angry if North Korea started testing nuclear weapons
and ballistic missiles again, since China would like to get all
American forces out of the area, especially out of South Korea, and
the North Korean tests would bring more American forces in.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Oct-2019 World View: South Korea

Guest Wrote:> But would South Korean President Moon allow more US troops into
> SK? That's the real question.

We do have a precedent that suggests an answer.

Early in 2017, China imposed harsh economic sanctions on South Korea,
especially targetting Lotte Department Stores in China and South Korea
with a boycott, in retaliation for president Park Geun-hye allowing
deployment of the THAAD missile system in March.

Then president Moon Jae-in took office in May, after an election
campaign promising to end THAAD deployment, and to develop closer ties
with North Korea. But then North Korea conducted a new series of
ballistic missile tests. As a result, Moon abruptly reversed policy
and approved the deployment of four more THAAD launchers.

So China was undoubtedly pissed off at Moon for allowing the
deployment of more THAAD launchers, but they must also have been
extremely pissed off at North Korea for provoking Moon to do so.

Guest Wrote:> Moon is a left wing nutter. He has vowed to bring foreign
> companies in to invest money in a North Korean factory complex
> that has been closed since 2016 because if the North's atomic bomb
> testing. He has also removed mine fields and pulled back South
> Korean army units from parts of the DMZ. He's foolish. Not only
> has he opened up a land corridor for the NK army to invade the
> South, he is also attempting to enrich Kim Jung un at a time when
> the sanctions are biting. Moon has been completely taken in by Kim
> Jung un. Moon's is a flaming idiot.

Kaesong can be closed again as easily as it was opened. The land
corridor can be closed again as quickly as it was opened.
Unfortunately, if North Korea launches a massive attack on Seoul, the
land corridor and a few mines would make little difference.

So I see Moon's overtures in the same way that I see Trump's meetings
with Kim Jong-un. Trump keeps saying what a sweet, wonderful guy Kim
is, but nobody believes that Trump believes that or that Moon believes
it either.

Guest Wrote:> Moon's generation (late 40s and 50s) is Korea's infantile and
> foolish Baby Boomer generation. They are blind to the North's true
> intentions. It's shocking to listen to these idiots blaming
> everything wrong with the universe on Donald Trump and call the
> North Koreans their 'brothers'. Jesus.

> Younger South Koreans are wary of the North and have little
> interest in unification. Young Koreans want jobs and have little
> interest in brotherly connections with the North, especially if SK
> tax dollars are diverted to it.

Korea's last generational crisis war was World War II, not the 1950s
Korean war, so the Boomer generation would be the same age as in the
West, and the generation you're talking about would correspond to the
Gen-Xers.

However, you're right that there's a lot of desperation and
self-delusion among the people of Seoul, and I don't blame them, with
tens of thousands of missiles facing them from 50 miles away. Many of
the older people also still remember family members across the border,
and they would favor reunification for that reason.

Guest Wrote:> Large numbers of teenage Korean males are best described as
> Incels: fat losers with chubby cheeks, oversized glasses, and poor
> hygiene. They only play computer games, look at online porn, and
> don't seem to be aware of current events and would only support
> unification if they were promised a North Korean
> girlfriend...

Lol! So let me see. You hate Koreans in their 40s-50s, and you hate
Korean teenagers. But you love "younger South Koreans." So I assume
that you and your girlfriend are your 20s, and it seems you hate
everyone else.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Oct-2019 World View: PLA in Hong Kong threatens protesters

Since 1997, the Hong Kong Garrison is a group of several thousand PLA
(People's "Liberation" Army) soldiers who are stationed in Hong Kong,
in the Kowloon district adjacent to the mainland, but are meant to be
"invisible." They are confined to barracks, where they wear their
uniforms, but are not permitted to wear their uniforms in public.
They've never left their barracks in uniform in the 22 years they've
been stationed in Hong Kong, but they're prepared to emerge and take
military action if ordered to do so.

So it's significant that the PLA soldiers in the barracks are now
making themselves felt. According to several reports:

Quote: "Men wearing helmets raised a flag from on top of one
of the buildings in the army compound, warning those below that
they were violating the law and could be prosecuted.

Footage taken by RTHK shows strong flashlights were also shone
from the barracks at the protesters on Waterloo Road. ...

Posts on social media also suggested that a warning was shouted at
protesters from the barracks, in Cantonese."

Cantonese is the language of southern China, where previous massive
rebellions (Taiping Rebellion and Communist Revolution) began, to
attack the Mandarin-speaking north.

---- Source:

-- Hong Kong / Warning issued to protesters from PLA barracks
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k...191006.htm
(RadioTVHK, 6-Oct-2019)

---- Related Articles:

** 2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191002


** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190622

[pbrower2a]

(10-06-2019, 09:17 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 06-Oct-2019 World View: South Korea

Guest Wrote:>   But would South Korean President Moon allow more US troops into
>   SK? That's the real question.

We do have a precedent that suggests an answer.

Early in 2017, China imposed harsh economic sanctions on South Korea,
especially targetting Lotte Department Stores in China and South Korea
with a boycott, in retaliation for president Park Geun-hye allowing
deployment of the THAAD missile system in March.

Then president Moon Jae-in took office in May, after an election
campaign promising to end THAAD deployment, and to develop closer ties
with North Korea.  But then North Korea conducted a new series of
ballistic missile tests.  As a result, Moon abruptly reversed policy
and approved the deployment of four more THAAD launchers.

So China was undoubtedly pissed off at Moon for allowing the
deployment of more THAAD launchers, but they must also have been
extremely pissed off at North Korea for provoking Moon to do so.

Guest Wrote:>   Moon is a left wing nutter. He has vowed to bring foreign
>   companies in to invest money in a North Korean factory complex
>   that has been closed since 2016 because if the North's atomic bomb
>   testing. He has also removed mine fields and pulled back South
>   Korean army units from parts of the DMZ. He's foolish. Not only
>   has he opened up a land corridor for the NK army to invade the
>   South, he is also attempting to enrich Kim Jung un at a time when
>   the sanctions are biting. Moon has been completely taken in by Kim
>   Jung un. Moon's is a flaming idiot.

Kaesong can be closed again as easily as it was opened.  The land
corridor can be closed again as quickly as it was opened.
Unfortunately, if North Korea launches a massive attack on Seoul, the
land corridor and a few mines would make little difference.

So I see Moon's overtures in the same way that I see Trump's meetings
with Kim Jong-un.  Trump keeps saying what a sweet, wonderful guy Kim
is, but nobody believes that Trump believes that or that Moon believes
it either.

Guest Wrote:>   Moon's generation (late 40s and 50s) is Korea's infantile and
>   foolish Baby Boomer generation. They are blind to the North's true
>   intentions. It's shocking to listen to these idiots blaming
>   everything wrong with the universe on Donald Trump and call the
>   North Koreans their 'brothers'. Jesus.

>   Younger South Koreans are wary of the North and have little
>   interest in unification. Young Koreans want jobs and have little
>   interest in brotherly connections with the North, especially if SK
>   tax dollars are diverted to it.

Korea's last generational crisis war was World War II, not the 1950s
Korean war, so the Boomer generation would be the same age as in the
West, and the generation you're talking about would correspond to the
Gen-Xers.

However, you're right that there's a lot of desperation and
self-delusion among the people of Seoul, and I don't blame them, with
tens of thousands of missiles facing them from 50 miles away.  Many of
the older people also still remember family members across the border,
and they would favor reunification for that reason.

Guest Wrote:>   Large numbers of teenage Korean males are best described as
>   Incels: fat losers with chubby cheeks, oversized glasses, and poor
>   hygiene. They only play computer games, look at online porn, and
>   don't seem to be aware of current events and would only support
>   unification if they were promised a North Korean
>   girlfriend...

Lol!  So let me see.  You hate Koreans in their 40s-50s, and you hate
Korean teenagers.  But you love "younger South Koreans."  So I assume
that you and your girlfriend are your 20s, and it seems you hate
everyone else.

"Guest" must have been booted. There are plenty of "Incels" -- boys who relate more easily with computers than with human beings (I make an allowance for homosexuality, but they are incapable of dealing with the capriciousness of other people, no matter what country in which they live*. Artificial intelligence is now so good that it can simulate the perfectly-compliant woman, and pornography offers the myth of a compliant and willing partner+ -- in all cultures. There is a cure -- get fit, get a job, and get involved with something other than a computer... even if it is a dog. You will need to caress it and walk it, neither of which one can do adequately if one's fingers are on a keyboard. 

IT has created jobs, but it has also isolated us ever more. We need to take breaks from it in recognition of its unreality.  

...

*South Korea is the country most completely connected to the Internet, and more connection to the Internet would be a good thing for much of America, especially the rural South, where many people are isolated within their communities. 

+Pornography of all kinds traffics in comforting stereotypes and sexual unreality.