Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Nov-2019 World View: Isolationism and war with China

Trevor Wrote:> Actually, the nuking of Japan killed something like 200,000
> people. It does seem that ever since Iraq, isolationism has become
> popular again. We'd rather give up being policeman of the world
> and have everyone else deal with their own problems. I'm getting
> the impression that at least some of this blindness is deliberate,
> simply because we don't want to think about the possibility. Much
> easier to say the world will end in 12 years because of climate
> change.

Thanks for the correction.

I don't read Trump's policies as isolationist. I read them as
preserving resources for the inevitable war with China, which Trump is
well aware of.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Nov-2019 World View: Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales resigns

• Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales
  announced his resignation on national television on Sunday (AP)

Bolivia's far-left President Evo Morales resigned on Sunday after
nearly 14 years in power. The resignation follows a heavily disputed
re-election on October 20, leading to weeks of riots and chaos.

As usual, racism is the dominating factor in Bolivia's society.
Society is split between the descendants of the Spanish invaders,
along with the mestizos, which form a market dominant minority, versus
the indigenous groups, led by the far-left indigenous president Evo
Morales.

Evo Morales has been in power since 2006. The constitution prohibited
him from running for a third term, so in 2016 he ran a national
referendum to authorize his running for a third term. He lost the
referendum, but ran for a third term anyway, and won. In last month's
elections, he was running for a fourth term.

In the meantime, his cronies have been corrupting the voting system
during the last few years. When the election finally took place last
month, the election commission stopped in the middle of counting the
votes, when it appeared that Morales was going to lose. They started
counting votes again the next day, but suddenly Morales was winning.

This triggered weeks of street protests and riots by people demanding
a new election. As the riots continued week after week, the army
generals over the weekend finally turned against Morales, and said
that he should step down.

Morales resigned, or said he would resign, saying that it was
necessary because his supporters were being harassed, persecuted and
threatened. He said he was leaving to help protect families of
political allies, after their homes were burned down. He reportedly
has fled to Cochabamba, a region of Bolivia which is a stronghold of
his indigenous supporters.

Now Morales is calling the situation a coup, and some reports say that
the claim to resign was a ruse. According to reports, he's waiting to
see if the streets get filled with people supporting him.

Politicians in other far-left Latin American countries -- Venezuela,
Nicaragua, Cuba -- are also calling the resignation a coup. Mexico
has offered Morales asylum.

Along with Morales, the next two successors, vice-President Alvaro
García and Senate President Adriana Salvatierra, also resigned,
leaving a power vacuum in Bolivia. There are fears of more riots and
violence and that the army may step in to maintain order.

--- Source:

-- Bolivian President Evo Morales resigns amid election protests
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50370013
(BBC, 11-Nov-2019)

-- Bolivia ex-president Evo Morales on the run as supporters clash
with police, barricade roads
https://www.foxnews.com/world/bolivia-pr...supporters
(Fox News, 11-Nov-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Nov-2019 World View: Violence increases sharply in Hong Kong

• A protester is detained by police Monday in Hong Kong. (AP)

Following the worst weekend of violence in Hong Kong since the
pro-democracy protests began 24 weeks ago, there were further major
acts of violence on Monday.

Police have been using massive amounts of tear gas, but on Monday
there was a major escalation when the police used live fire and shot a
protester in the stomach. The Hong Kong hospital authority said the
person was initially in critical condition but was stable after
surgery.

In a second incident, caught on video, a pro-Bejing man argued with a
group of young people. Someone doused him with a liquid and struck a
lighter. The man was engulfed in flames, and is in critical
condition.

Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam gave a press conference in which she
promised to “spare no effort” to halt anti-government protests. She
said the following:

Quote: "I do not want to go into details, but I just want to
make it very clear that we will spare no effort in finding ways
and means that could end the violence in Hong Kong as soon as
possible.

If there is still any wishful thinking that, by escalating
violence, the Hong Kong SAR [Special Administrative
Region]government will yield to pressure to satisfy the so-called
political demands, I am making this statement clear and loud here:
That will not happen.

These rioters’ actions have far exceeded their demands, and they
are enemies of the people."

Lam did not say what steps will be taken to end the protests.

As I've written in the past, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
absolutely does not want to initiate military action with the Chinese
army. They could not solve the problem any better than the Hong Kong
police can, and the CCP would be blamed for massive amounts of
violence, all caught on video.

An army intervention would also create a massive international
backlash of criticism. It would also make it impossible for Trump to
agree to a trade deal that China desperately wants.

On the other hand, there is no chance that the protests will fizzle
out and die. They are being fueled by two major immutables:

• Every young Hong Konger knows that if he brings children into
  the world, they will become brutally controlled by the CCP starting in
  2047.
  
  
• The Hong Kong protests are along the same fault line as the last
  two massive , full-scale anti-government rebellion, the Taiping
  Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's Communist Revolution
  (1934-49).

The CCP are well aware of these issues, but don't know what to do
about them. The only thing that's certain is that, whatever they do,
they will make the problem worse.

---- Sources:

-- Hong Kong leader suggests harsher crackdown on protests after
especially violent day
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-k...2019-11-11
(MktWat/AP, 11-Nov-2019)

-- Hong Kong’s Violence Will Get Worse
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/11/pol...get-worse/
(ForeignPolicy, 11-Nov-2019)

-- 2047 / The Date Hong Kong Protesters Can’t Escape
https://www.theatlantic.com/internationa...47/601768/
(Atlantic, 11-Nov-2019)

---- Related:

** 2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191002


** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190622

[Warren Dew]

Out of curiosity, why do you think the CCP is aware of the parallel with the Taiping Rebellion, or of generational theory?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Nov-2019 World View: Taiping Rebellion

(11-12-2019, 05:18 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Out of curiosity, why do you think the CCP is aware of the
> parallel with the Taiping Rebellion, or of generational
> theory?

Oh, I doubt that Xi Jinping knows anything at all about generational
theory.

But he certainly knows all about the Taiping Rebellion, just as all
Americans know about the American Civil War. Chinese nationalists
blame the Taiping Rebellion on Britain and the Opium Wars. In fact,
Xi Jinping gave a major speech a couple of years ago blaming all of
China's troubles on the Opium Wars. Incidentally, that's why they're
enjoying supplying the US opioid addiction.

China's history is filled with massive anti-government rebellions,
and many of them were triggered by religious movements. That's why
the CCP is so hysterically paranoid about religions. That's why
they beat, torture, rape and jail Christians, Buddhists and Muslims,
and sometimes even Daoists.

The Taiping Rebellion (1852-64) in particular was led by a Christian
convert who believed he was the son of God and the younger brother of
Jesus, began in the south and spread north. Hong Xiuquan became the
very charismatic leader of the God Worshipping Society, in a domain of
southern China called Taiping Tianguo (Heavenly Kingdom of Eternal
Peace). He gained thousands of followers as his word spread, leading
to the massive Taiping Rebellion. The CCP is VERY well aware of
that history.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Nov-19 World View -- Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara
  
• Racial division in Latin America
  
• Morales' grab for power
  
• Brief generational history of Bolivia
  

****
**** Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara
****


Opposition politician Jeanine Áñez, who declared herself interim president of Bolivia after resignation of Evo Morales (AP)

Bolivia's far-left President Evo Morales resigned on Sunday after
nearly 14 years in power as the country's first indigenous president.
The resignation follows a heavily disputed re-election on October 20,
leading to weeks of riots and chaos.

Bolivia's army generals last weekend called for him to step down,
after they fought angry anti-Morales protesters for weeks. On Sunday,
Morales resigned on nationwide tv, saying he resigned willingly "so
there would be no more bloodshed." He also said that he felt forced
to stand down because his supporters and his family near his home in
Cochabamba were being harassed, persecuted and threatened.

After resigning, he fled to Cochabamba, which is a stronghold of his
indigenous supporters. From there, he has fled to Mexico, where
he has been given asylum. Now Morales is calling the situation
a coup.

Now the anti-Morales protesters are being met by pro-Morales
protesters in the capital city La Paz and across the country. An
opposition leader, Jeanine Áñez, has declared herself to be interim
president, and has promised new elections.

Moreno's political party, Movement to Socialism (MAS), is evoking the
memory of 1960s Marxist revolutionary Ché Guevara. Guevara launched a
revolutionary coup in Bolivia in 1965. Guevara's guerrilla movement
was defeated by the Bolivian army, and Guevara himself was killed on
October 8, 1967, allegedly with the help of the United States. MAS
today uses Guevara as a symbol for opposition to United States
intervention.

****
**** Racial division in Latin America
****

As usual, racism is the dominating factor in Bolivia's society.
Society is split between the descendants of the Spanish invaders,
along with the mestizos, versus the indigenous groups, led by the
far-left indigenous president Evo Morales. According to the CIA
Factbook, the first group comprise 68% of the population, while the
indigenous people are 20%.

Although the percentages vary, this same kind of European/indigenous
split occurs in populations throughout Latin America. This is
true of Peru, Chile and Ecuador, which all currently have
widespread protests. The same is true of Venezuela.

A common thread running through all these countries is that the
European descendant population is market dominant, while the
indigenous population, often called Amerindians, is marginalized, with
large disparities in wealth and income. Somebody ought to figure out
why this always happens.

In Bolivia, Morales has been in power since 2006. The indigenous
minority was marginalized under earlier leaders. Morales, the
country's first indigenous leader, is credited with substantially
improving Bolivia's economy, and particularly reducing poverty
substantially among the indigenous population. This of course
explains why the population of Morales in the indigenous population
goes well beyond racial affinity.

(As an aside, it's worth noting that in this generational Crisis era,
there are widespread protests not only in Latin America, but also in
countries around the world, including Hong Kong, Iraq, Lebanon,
Catalonia, Kazakhstan, Libya and Egypt.)

Today a major regional issue is that Morales is one of the few leaders
in the world aligned with the Venezuelan thug Nicolás Maduro, who is
flooding the entire region with millions of Venezuelan migrants who
are fleeing violence and starvation. In some cases, Morales is
deporting Venezuelans back to Maduro and Venezuela to be punished,
which is increasing tensions in Bolivia.

****
**** Morales' grab for power
****


Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales announced his resignation on national television on Sunday (AP)

What Morales has done is similar to what I've seen in country after
country in Africa. An African warlord comes to power, usually under a
constitution that limits him to two terms. But he uses the time in
office to take control of the courts and the main institutions, and
uses corruption to illegally enrich all his cronies, so that the
entire government is tied to him and dependent on him. Their wealth
depends on the leader staying in power, and a new leader would expose
them to criminal corruption charges and jailing. The leader uses
torture, beatings, rape, and jailing of the opposition to make sure
that he stays in power. This is standard fare in country after
country in Africa.

Evo Morales has been in power since 2006. The constitution prohibited
him from running for a fourth term in 2019. In 2016 he ran a national
referendum to authorize his running for a fourth term, and he lost the
referendum. The constitutional court, which is widely believed to
have been corrupted by Morales, rejected the referendum result, so
that he could run for a fourth term anyway, in the October 20 election.

It's also widely believed that Morales and his cronies have been
corrupting the voting system during the last few years. When the
election finally took place last month, the election commission
stopped in the middle of counting the votes, when it appeared that
Morales was going to lose. They started counting votes again the next
day, and then suddenly Morales was winning. Subsequently, the
Organization of American States (OAS) did an investigation and found
numerous irregularities in the election, so they called for new
elections. This lead to the protests and rioting, and Morales'
decision to step down.

After fleeing to Mexico, Morales changed his mind and announced that
his resignation was forced, and that this was a coup. This is not
surprising since, as I described above, there are typically many of
his corrupt cronies in government who would be subject to criminal
prosecution under a new leadership, and they undoubtedly demanded that
he rescind his resignation. Politicians in other far-left Latin
American countries -- Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba -- are also calling
the resignation a coup, and are demanding that he be reinstated. On
the other hand, Brazil, Colombia and the United States are supporting
the opposition leader, Jeanine Áñez.

Along with Morales, the next two successors, vice-President Alvaro
García and Senate President Adriana Salvatierra, also resigned,
leaving a power vacuum in Bolivia. There are fears of more riots and
violence and that the army may step in to maintain order.

The situation in Bolivia today is febrile and chaotic, with continuing
clashes between European and indigenous factions, and the possibility
of greater violence.

****
**** Brief generational history of Bolivia
****

Bolivia's history is dominated by its invaders -- various indigenous
tribes, then the Incas, and then the Spaniards -- who enslaved them
and used them to mine and extract minerals, for shipment back
to Europe.

Bolivia gained independence in 1825 with Simón Bolívar's war of
independence. The next generational crisis war was the War of the
Pacific (1879-1884), where Bolivia lost its entire coastline to Chile,
turning it into a landlocked country.

The next generational crisis war began in 1965 with a guerrilla
movement mounted from Cuba and headed by Maj. Ernesto "Ché" Guevara, a
well-known Argentine Marxist revolutionary. With the aid of
U.S. military advisers, the Bolivian army smashed the guerrilla
movement, and the crisis war climax occurred on October 8, 1967, when
Guevara was captured and killed.

The death of Ché Guevara is still referenced today by Moreno's
Movement to Socialism (MAS), and by indigenous activists in general,
using it as a symbol for indigenous activism, and for opposition to
United States intervention.

There is a serious fault line between the descendants of Spanish
invaders + mestizos versus the indigenous groups. The tensions are
growing, but I don't expect them to grow into a civil war, because
it's too soon.

It's been only 52 years since Ché Guevara was killed, and so there are
still many survivors alive today who lived through and remember that
climactic battle and don't want to see it repeated. From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the "58-Year Hypothesis" applies, which
means that a full-scale civil war will not begin before 2025
(1967+58). In the meantime, there will be riots and low-level clashes
in the next few days or weeks, but I expect them to fizzle reasonably
quickly.

Sources:

• 'This Is a Military Coup': Bolivian President Evo Morales Resigns After Army Calls for His Ouster (Common Dreams, 11-Nov-2019)
  
• Bolivian President Evo Morales resigns amid election protests (BBC, 11-Nov-2019)
  
• Bolivia ex-president Evo Morales on the run as supporters clash with police, barricade roads (Fox News, 11-Nov-2019)
  
• Che Guevara's legacy still contentious 50 years after his death in Bolivia (Guardian, London, 5-Oct-2017)
  
• Evo Morales Condemns 'Coup' After Lawmaker Assumes Bolivia's Interim Presidency (NPR, 13-Nov-2019)
  
• Evo Morales leaves Bolivia dangerously divided (Economist, 16-Nov-2019)
  
• Bolivia rocked by more violent clashes as Evo Morales warns government not to ‘stain themselves with blood’ (Independent, London, 14-Nov-2019)
  
• Many wanted Morales out. But what happened in Bolivia was a military coup (Guardian, London, 13-Nov-2019)
  
• How Evo Morales lost control of Bolivia (Reuters, 14-Nov-2019)
  
• Bolivia crisis: Clashes as Morales supporters oppose interim rule (BBC, 14-Nov-2019)
  
• Russia / Why Bolivian Politics Suddenly Matters to Putin (Bloomberg, 11-Nov-2019)
  
• History of Bolivia (InfoPlease)

Related Articles:

• Bolivia nationalizes pension funds, lowers retirement age to 58 (12-Dec-2010)
  
  
• Bolivia accuses Chile of setting up military base near border (09-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bolivia, Evo Morales, Movement to Socialism, MAS,
Ernesto Ché Guevara, Jeanine Áñez,
Cochabamba, Mexico, Amerindians,
Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro,
Organization of American States, OAS,
Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba,
Alvaro García, Adriana Salvatierra,
War of the Pacific

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(11-14-2019, 11:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ****
**** Brief generational history of Bolivia
****

Bolivia's history is dominated by its invaders -- various indigenous
tribes, then the Incas, and then the Spaniards -- who enslaved them
and used them to mine and extract minerals, for shipment back
to Europe.

Bolivia gained independence in 1825 with Simón Bolívar's war of
independence.  The next generational crisis war was the War of the
Pacific (1879-1884), where Bolivia lost its entire coastline to Chile,
turning it into a landlocked country.

The next generational crisis war began in 1965 with a guerrilla
movement mounted from Cuba and headed by Maj. Ernesto "Ché" Guevara, a
well-known Argentine Marxist revolutionary.  With the aid of
U.S. military advisers, the Bolivian army smashed the guerrilla
movement, and the crisis war climax occurred on October 8, 1967, when
Guevara was captured and killed.

The death of Ché Guevara is still referenced today by Moreno's
Movement to Socialism (MAS), and by indigenous activists in general,
using it as a symbol for indigenous activism, and for opposition to
United States intervention.

There is a serious fault line between the descendants of Spanish
invaders + mestizos versus the indigenous groups.  The tensions are
growing, but I don't expect them to grow into a civil war, because
it's too soon.

It's been only 52 years since Ché Guevara was killed, and so there are
still many survivors alive today who lived through and remember that
climactic battle and don't want to see it repeated.  From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the "58-Year Hypothesis" applies, which
means that a full-scale civil war will not begin before 2025
(1967+58).  In the meantime, there will be riots and low-level clashes
in the next few days or weeks, but I expect them to fizzle reasonably
quickly.

Sources:

• 'This Is a Military Coup': Bolivian President Evo Morales Resigns After Army Calls for His Ouster (Common Dreams, 11-Nov-2019)
  
• Bolivian President Evo Morales resigns amid election protests (BBC, 11-Nov-2019)
  
• Bolivia ex-president Evo Morales on the run as supporters clash with police, barricade roads (Fox News, 11-Nov-2019)
  
• Che Guevara's legacy still contentious 50 years after his death in Bolivia (Guardian, London, 5-Oct-2017)
  
• Evo Morales Condemns 'Coup' After Lawmaker Assumes Bolivia's Interim Presidency (NPR, 13-Nov-2019)
  
• Evo Morales leaves Bolivia dangerously divided (Economist, 16-Nov-2019)
  
• Bolivia rocked by more violent clashes as Evo Morales warns government not to ‘stain themselves with blood’ (Independent, London, 14-Nov-2019)
  
• Many wanted Morales out. But what happened in Bolivia was a military coup (Guardian, London, 13-Nov-2019)
  
• How Evo Morales lost control of Bolivia (Reuters, 14-Nov-2019)
  
• Bolivia crisis: Clashes as Morales supporters oppose interim rule (BBC, 14-Nov-2019)
  
• Russia / Why Bolivian Politics Suddenly Matters to Putin (Bloomberg, 11-Nov-2019)
  
• History of Bolivia (InfoPlease)
  

Related Articles:

• Bolivia nationalizes pension funds, lowers retirement age to 58 (12-Dec-2010)
  
  
• Bolivia accuses Chile of setting up military base near border (09-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bolivia, Evo Morales, Movement to Socialism, MAS,
Ernesto Ché Guevara, Jeanine Áñez,
Cochabamba, Mexico, Amerindians,
Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro,
Organization of American States, OAS,
Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba,
Alvaro García, Adriana Salvatierra,
War of the Pacific

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

Sorry John but this is nonsense, Bolivia's 20th Century Crisis war was obviously the Chaco War with Paraguay. Guevara's uprising was a local conflict. Regarding Global Geopolitics, Communism is simply no longer a significant ideological force in the world Since 1989.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaco_War

[pbrower2a]

The luster is gone from "Bolivarian" socialism. Eleven years is far too much for any authoritarian system that pretends to stand for democracy while gutting it unless that system has an apparatus of state terror. .

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Nov-2019 World View: 1990s collapse of Soviet Union

(11-10-2019, 10:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Thanks, John.

> I'd be interested in your thoughts on the Russian Federation
> thread if you have any you'd like to share.

> http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5721.html

I looked at the thread. This was a subject of discussion for years
and years and years in the old forum, and I have no desire whatsoever
to go into that thread and get embroiled in another discussion.

Here's the summary: The 1990s collapse of the Soviet Union was NOT a
crisis event for Russia. There was no Regeneracy and no Climax.

It was an Awakening climax, following the disastrous war in
Afghanistan. In the 20th century, there are two similar examples of
the same thing: The collapse of the Weimar government following the
disastrous Great War, and the resignation of Richard Nixon following
the disastrous Vietnam war.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Nov-2019 World View: Bolivia's Chaco War

(11-15-2019, 05:04 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Sorry John but this is nonsense, Bolivia's 20th Century Crisis war
> was obviously the Chaco War with Paraguay. Guevara's uprising was
> a local conflict. Regarding Global Geopolitics, Communism is
> simply no longer a significant ideological force in the world
> Since 1989.

I've reviewed the Chaco war, and because of the large number
of casualties it certainly qualifies as a candidate.

However, overall it reads like a non-crisis war for Bolivia. It's too
soon after the War of the Pacific. There was no explosive climax.
And the war is almost completely forgotten today. It might be
comparable to the Spanish-American war, the Korean war, or even World
War I for America.

It might be a crisis war for Paraguay, but I haven't researched that.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Nov-2019 World View: Anti-government rebellion could spread

Quote:> Mainland Chinese Soldiers Take to Hong Kong Streets for First Time
> During Protests

> People's Liberation Army troops make rare appearance outside
> barracks to clear demonstrators’ roadblocks, raising questions
> about the army’s future role in the city

Guest Wrote:> When are they going to make their move? The protests in HK are
> becoming as endless as Brexit.

It looks more and more like the Hong Kong protests are building to
another anti-government rebellion from southern China, like the
Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49).

I think that the CCP are aware that if they send in troops, they
will trigger this larger rebellion.

I think that they will continue to hold back unless and until
it spreads to the mainland.

As long as it's restricted to Hong Kong, even if it gets worse, the
mainland army cannot do anything more than the local riot police can
do. They might as well leave it to the Hong Kong riot police, unless
it begins to spread to southern China.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Nov-2019 World View: Stock Market Bubble and Correction

richard5za Wrote:> The Dow has got to 28 000 and on a historic P/E basis is amazingly
> high!

> Even if you think that there won't be a substantial correction,
> from a high base you are not going to get a large percentage
> return going forward. Simple math. I am amazed the stock market of
> the last 10 years. I was, and still am expecting the Dow to
> correct to below its 2001 peak of about 11 400. At 28000 that
> would be a correction of 59%

You're being wildly optimistic. Here's my DJIA history page:

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...i.djia.htm

The DJIA is currently around 300% of its historic trend value.

It's been above trend value almost continually since 1989, after
recovering from the false panic of 1987.

It's been above 200% of trend value almost continually since
the "irrational exuberance" of 1996. Even the Nasdaq crash
in 2000 barely dented it.

The financial crash of 2008 did dent it a bit, bringing it down to
about 130% of trend value. However, by 2013 it was back above 200% of
trend value by 2013.

It's been around 300% above trend value almost constantly since
January 2018.

This bubble is so huge and has lasted so long, that there are few
people in the world (outside of the Generational Dynamics web site)
who have a clue what's going on.

Your estimated correction of 59% would seem huge and ridiculous to all
the mainstream analysts and politicians, but it's wildly optimistic.

If the DJIA were simply to return to its trend value (from 300% to
100%), there would be a 67% correction.

However, that's not what's going to happen. The Law of Reversion of
the Mean says that in return for the 20 years when the DJIA has been
above trend value, it must be below the trend value, long enough and
deep enough to balance out the 20 years above. And if it overshoots,
as it almost certainly will, then the result will be even lower.

In 1928-33, the DJIA fell 90%. That seems likely to be repeated.

The following graph, which hasn't been updated since 2010, illustrates
all of the above:

• DJIA -- 1900-August 2010 - with exponential growth trend
  curve - Log scale

The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio is currently around 20, far above its
historical average of 14. Once again, The Law of Reversion of the
Mean applies.

I haven't updated the following chart since 2015, but it shows the
situation:



The blue line shows the historic average, around 13.9. The P/E ratio
has been above the historic average, sometimes way above, since the
1990s. By the Law of Mean Reversion, it will have to fall an
equivalent amount below the historic average to maintain the long-term
average. It fell to the 5-6 range three times in the last century, in
1917, in 1949, and in 1980. That's going to happen again with
absolute certainty, and that means that the Dow Jones Industrial
Average will fall below 3000, from its current level of 26000.

Once again, this implies implies a 90% correction. 59%? It's time for
you to remove your rose-colored glasses.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Nov-2019 World View: The Mandate from Heaven

Guest Wrote:> The Chinese communists aren't the brightest bunch. They seem to
> make the wrong choice every time. Why should this time be any
> different? I expect war to break out any day now. Most likely by
> accident.

I can't overstate how completely I agree with this. I'm constantly
astounded by the abject stupidity of the CCP and the decisions they
make.

In my book, "War between China and Japan - Why America must prepare,"
I detailed China's "century of humiliation." And while the
West did things to humiliate China, what came through over and
over again was that the Chinese were humiliated because of their
own stupidity.

Since WW II, the biggest example was Mao's Great Leap Forward,
which was the most disastrous agricultural policy of any nation
in world history. Then you can point to the mass slaughter
of Christians, the Tiananmen Square massacre, and so forth.

So the question is: Why does China make so many stupid mistakes, one
after another? I've thought about this, and I've come up with two
reasons.

First, they're a dictatorship. Dictators are no smarter than leaders
of democracies, and they may be even stupider, since their major
skills are torturing and killing people. But the big difference is
that when a leader of a democracy pursues a policy leading to
disaster, then the political opposition stops him -- through the
bureaucracy, through the courts, or through the legislature. But when
a dictator adopts a stupid policy, then there's nobody to stop him.

The second reason applies specifically to China: The CCP is a
religious cult. For millennia, the Chinese people have said that
their leaders can govern only if they've received a "Mandate from
Heaven," and Confucius and Sun Tzu set down rules for how a leader can
keep his Mandate from Heaven, once he's received it.

But then the religious cult goes deeper. Everyone refers to China as
"the Middle Kingdom," but that's a highly racist characterization.
Since ancient times, the highly racist Chinese have viewed the
universe in three layers -- The highest layer is the Kingdom of
Heaven. The second layer is China, the Master Race, the Middle
Kingdom -- yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin. And the
bottom layer is you and me -- the barbarians.

So if you're Xi Jinping, and your policies are guided by the
view that you're head of the Master Race, that you're dealing
with barbarians, and that you have to follow the policies of
Confucius and Sun Tzu to deal with these barbarians, then there's
no choice: You really are a total idiot. And if you're a dictator,
then you can adopt the stupidest and most idiotic policies
possible, and no one will stop you.

So that explains why the Chinese make one unbelievably stupid mistake
after another.

With regard to Hong Kong, that's why I say that I don't know what the
CCP is going to do, but there's only one thing you can be sure of:
That whatever the CCP does will only make things worse.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Nov-19 World View -- Trove of leaked China documents detail jailing of Xinjiang's Muslim Uighurs

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Trove of leaked China documents detail jailing of Xinjiang's Muslim Uighurs
  
• Uighurs after 're-education': prison, death or enslavement?
  
• Holocausts in three nations
  

****
**** Trove of leaked China documents detail jailing of Xinjiang's Muslim Uighurs
****


Uighurs pass through security checkpoint in Xinjiang province (AP)

The NY Times has obtained a trove of hundreds of pages of leaked top
secret Chinese documents containing details about the millions of
Muslim Uighurs in East Turkestan (Xinjiang Province) have been rounded
up, jailed, and treated harshly. The documents contain top secret
statements by Xi Jinping and other top officials of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP).

The documents say that regions of Xinjiang have been given quotas for
the minimum number of Uighurs to be arrested, with the directive to
"round up everyone who should be rounded up." Once arrested, full
dictatorial powers should be used against them, and they should be
punished, even though there was no indication that they committed any
crimes. The documents describe describe how one party official, Wang
Yongzhi, was discredited and punished himself because he thought that
he had objectives to the abusive treatment of innocent Uighurs, and
didn't round up and arrest enough of them to meet his quota.

The CCP has been conducting violent attacks at members of all
non-indigenous religions, including Christianity, Buddhism and Islam.
The attacks on Buddhism have been particularly violent and bloody,
because of Buddhist presence in Tibet, and on Islam because of Muslim
presence in Central Asia.

China's policies towards religions have always been violent, but
before Xi's rise to party, the CCP described the terrorist attacks in
Xinjiang as the work of a few fanatics. That all changed under Xi,
who in essence has declared all Muslims (and, indeed, all Buddhists
and Christians) as terrorists.

After a terror attack by Uighur terrorists in July 2014, Xi Jinping
called for a “struggle against terrorism, infiltration and separatism”
using the “organs of dictatorship,” and showing “absolutely no mercy."

<QUOTE>"The psychological impact of extremist religious
thought on people must never be underestimated. People who are
captured by religious extremism — male or female, old or young —
have their consciences destroyed, lose their humanity and murder
without blinking an eye."<END QUOTE>

It's interesting that the leaked documents are revealing that Xi
Jinping has found a way to blame the United States of Uighur terrorism
in China:

<QUOTE>"After the United States pulls troops out of
Afghanistan, terrorist organizations positioned on the frontiers
of Afghanistan and Pakistan may quickly infiltrate into Central
Asia. East Turkestan’s terrorists who have received real-war
training in Syria and Afghanistan could at any time launch
terrorist attacks in Xinjiang."<END QUOTE>

Although Xi's comments were addressed to Uighurs, the same policies
target Buddhists and Christians as well. In 2013, Xi issued "Document
Number 9," which condemned those in the West who criticized China's
violent crackdowns on Tibetan Buddhists and Uighur Muslims. Then, in
April 2018, Xi adopted the "Sinicization of Religion," which triggered
a rampage by China's security thugs, destroying Catholic and
Protestant Churches, destroying Buddhist statues and temples, and
jailing, beating and torturing anyone who tries to practice his
religion.

The CCP has identified what it calls the "five poisons" of society
that must be controlled or stamped out. These are Tibetans, Uighur
Muslims, democracy activists, Taiwanese, and Falun Gong practitioners.
These are the guiding principles of China's self-destruction.

However, in practice there are many more "poisons," according to the
CCP, including Christians.

Another "poison" to be treated violently are the ethnic Hui people in
Gansu province, in the heart of China. The Hui are not separatist,
are not violent, are not terrorists. In fact, they're pure Chinese,
except that they're not Han Chinese. But they're Muslims, and that
makes them hated enemies of the state, and they're now being treated
violently by the CCP, just like the Tibetans and Uighurs.

****
**** Uighurs after 're-education': prison, death or enslavement?
****

One of the mysteries of China's "re-education" program for Uighurs is:
What happens to a Uighur after he's been "re-educated"? I've heard
analysts on al-Jazeera and the BBC raise this question, but no one
seems to have an answer -- or perhaps they don't want utter the
obvious answers.

One analyst last week said that there was evidence that the prison
population in Xinjiang prisons was increasing substantially. She
opined that the CCP were being sent to prison after being re-educated.

Does that make sense to you, Dear Reader? It makes no sense to me at
all.

The implication is that a bloodthirsty violence leader, Xi Jinping,
ordered the state to spend tens of millions of dollars re-educating
Uighurs, and then spend more tens of millions of dollars to pay for
their room and board in prison. So that possibility doesn't make
sense at all.

Another possibility is that the re-educated Uighurs are being killed.
That's possible, since the same satellite photos that revealed the
re-education centers also revealed adjacent crematoria. This would
indicate the same kind of "final solution" that Hitler used to get rid
of the Jews. And it's much more likely a scenario than just putting
them in prisons.

However, the issue seemed to be solved in July, when Xinjiang Governor
Shohrat Zakir announced that after the Uighurs had received their
re-education, they were given good jobs with good incomes. (See my
article: "31-Jul-19 World View -- China claims Muslim Uighurs released from concentration camps"
)

Does that make sense to you, Dear Reader? Actually, it does, as I
described in my article. A bloodthirsty leader like Xi Jinping would
used this work force of hundreds of thousands of Uighurs to do slave
labor for China's military. As I described in my July article, that's
what Hitler did.

So, millions of Uighurs (and Kazakhs) have been sent to concentration
camps ("re-education centers"). Some were sent to prison afterwards,
some were killed in the crematoria, and some were sent to work in
slave labor camps.

That seems like the most likely set of scenarios to me. And yet, I've
never seen or heard any mainstream media sources even mention killing
or enslaving Uighurs.

****
**** Holocausts in three nations
****

I continue to be absolutely astonished that, after hearing politicians
for decades say "Never again!", referring to the Nazi Holocaust
against the Jews, that there are now three Holocausts currently in
progress, in three different countries, all targeting Sunni Muslims:

• Syria's Shia/Alawite leader Bashar al-Assad, supported by
  Orthodox Christian Russia, is committing genocide and ethnic cleansing
  against Arab Sunni Muslims in Syria.
  
  
• Buddhist Myanmar (Burma) seems to have successfully completed its
  genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim ethnic Rohingyas.
  
  
• China is commiting genocide, ethnic cleansing, and enslavement of
  over a million Sunni Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in East Turkistan
  (Xinjiang Province).

What's perhaps most astonishing is that even the Sunni Muslim nations
-- Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Indonesia,
and so forth -- are not saying anything about three three Holocausts,
committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of their own brothers.

Sources:

• Xinjiang / ‘Absolutely No Mercy’: Leaked Files Expose How China Organized Mass Detentions of Muslims (NY Times, 16-Nov-2019)
  
• How China defines religious extremism and how it justifies Xinjiang re-education camps for Muslims (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 13-Oct-2018)
  
• Xinjiang / Report: Leaked files show how mass detention of Uighurs was organized (Axios, 16-Nov-2019)
  
• Hui / Gansu province / China's anti-Muslim crackdowns extend beyond Uighurs (Axios, 21-Sep-2019)
  
• Hui / Gansu / ‘Boiling us like frogs’: China’s clampdown on Muslims creeps into the heartland, finds new targets (Washington Post, 20-Sep-2019)
  
• The Uighur Scholars Working Group (Cgpolicy.org)
  
• A crackdown on Islam is spreading across China (NY Times, 22-Sep-2019)
  
• Leaked Chinese documents reveal details of crackdown on Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province, says NYT report (AFP, 17-Nov-2019)
  
• Elimination of Uyghur “Counter-Revolutionary” Officials in the Academic Fields—Exact Quotes Translated from a Leaked Audio File (Uighur Human Rights Project, 17-Nov-2019)
  
• China / Xinjiang / Beijing’s Uighur Policy: ‘Show No Mercy’ (American Conservative, 16-Nov-2019)
  
• Defying China, Malaysia releases Uighur detainees (Reuters, 18-Nov-2018)
  
• While China harvests human organs from its persecuted minorities, Britain is staying silent to protect free trade (Independent, London, 25-Sep-2019)

Related Articles:

• China claims Muslim Uighurs released from concentration camps (31-Jul-2019)
  
  
• Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province (16-Nov-2018)
  
  
• China continues massive crackdown on non-indigenous religions (21-Oct-2018)
  
  
• China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang (14-Oct-2018)
  
  
• University of N. Florida and Pentagon cut ties with China's Confucius Institutes (30-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Defector in Kazakhstan reveals explosive information about China's 'reeducation centers' (25-Jul-2018)
  
  
• China bans Winnie The Pooh because Xi Jinping looks like him (18-Jul-2017)
  
  
• China Prime Minister warns country becoming unstable (24-Jan-2006)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Uighurs, Kazakhs,
Central Asia, East Turkestan, Xinjiang, Tibet,
Wang Yongzhi, Document Number 9, Sinicization of Religion,
Taiwan, Falun Gong, Shohrat Zakir,
Nazi Holocaust, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Myanmar, Burma, Rohingyas

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
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[pbrower2a]

(11-17-2019, 11:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 17-Nov-2019 World View: The Mandate from Heaven

Guest Wrote:>   The Chinese communists aren't the brightest bunch. They seem to
>   make the wrong choice every time. Why should this time be any
>   different? I expect war to break out any day now. Most likely by
>   accident.

I can't overstate how completely I agree with this.  I'm constantly
astounded by the abject stupidity of the CCP and the decisions they
make.

In my book, "War between China and Japan - Why America must prepare,"
I detailed China's "century of humiliation."  And while the
West did things to humiliate China, what came through over and
over again was that the Chinese were humiliated because of their
own stupidity.

Since WW II, the biggest example was Mao's Great Leap Forward,
which was the most disastrous agricultural policy of any nation
in world history.  Then you can point to the mass slaughter
of Christians, the Tiananmen Square massacre, and so forth.

OK, Marxism-Leninism sucks, and Maoism is even crazier.  

Quote:So the question is: Why does China make so many stupid mistakes, one
after another?  I've thought about this, and I've come up with two
reasons.

China has practically no heritage of democracy. Leaders of the 1911 revolution called for it, and the successors of that revolution in the Kuomintang gave lip service to it while establishing a nearly-totalitarian dictatorship whose authority did not extend far from Beijing. Warlord government is itself despotic, and Mao Zedong became the one warlord with a modern ideology. Unfortunately that modern ideology was Stalinism with Chinese characteristics.  

Quote:First, they're a dictatorship.  Dictators are no smarter than leaders
of democracies, and they may be even stupider, since their major
skills are torturing and killing people.  But the big difference is
that when a leader of a democracy pursues a policy leading to
disaster, then the political opposition stops him -- through the
bureaucracy, through the courts, or through the legislature.  But when
a dictator adopts a stupid policy, then there's nobody to stop him.

Trump may go down because the so-called "Deep State" has found people who will cooperate with it. Trump is not only a medicrity, but also an arrogant one who gets more objectionable seemingly every day. He got elected under freakish circumstances unlikely to be repeated in 2020. Our Deep State (military, intelligence services, diplomatic corps, and federal law enforcement) may not be that different from its analogues even under dictatorial systems, but it is not going to let certain things slide. 

Trump was stupid enough to purge the Republican party before marginalizing the Democrats, so guess who is in a position to gain politically by cooperating with the Deep State? Or was our Deep State unwilling to do partisan dirty work for one Party?   

Quote:The second reason applies specifically to China: The CCP is a
religious cult.  For millennia, the Chinese people have said that
their leaders can govern only if they've received a "Mandate from
Heaven," and Confucius and Sun Tzu set down rules for how a leader can
keep his Mandate from Heaven, once he's received it.

And that is how things were when China was an Empire whose Heaven-sent ruler was to be treated as if a god even if the Emperor is a near-infant. In the beautifully-made The Last Emperor, the literal last emperor gets a little taste of freedom after his prison term and is shocked to find that Mao Zedong is getting the same elevation to god-like status as he saw.   

Quote:But then the religious cult goes deeper.  Everyone refers to China as
"the Middle Kingdom," but that's a highly racist characterization.
Since ancient times, the highly racist Chinese have viewed the
universe in three layers -- The highest layer is the Kingdom of
Heaven.  The second layer is China, the Master Race, the Middle
Kingdom -- yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin.  And the
bottom layer is you and me -- the barbarians.

Koreans and Japanese seem to have the same characteristics, so it goes beyond race. Chinese culture is difficult to crack. There have been people who assimilated into Chinese life as refugees and political operatives (the pre-Islamic Sassanid dynasty took flight to China and assimilated over a couple centuries)... Persians look much more like Europeans than even South Asians.   

What you say of the Chinese also applied to the Japanese before 1945, when the Japanese had to admit that however different they were by culture from the rest of the world, that they were at most equals. This said, most peoples have hierarchies in which some people are most like themselves, some less like, and so on until one finds a gap between humans and bonobos. 

The real hierarchy in China better fits this one:

CCP leadership
capitalists
intellectuals and professionals
workers
pariahs (seen as criminals for any show of dissent)

In the United States the hierarchy is more like this:

big capitalists
the political elite
executives
professionals and small-business owners
intellectuals and skilled workers
unskilled workers
people on the dole
criminals

Government by lobbyist, which many not have foundation in our Constitution, is practically the norm with elected officials as window-dressing. The lobbyists are of course retainers of the rich-and-powerful. Because our system has debased formal education into career training, college education now gets away with college professors who get paid as badly as restaurant workers. Civil servants can be anything from unskilled laborers (the people who fill pot-holes and catch stray dogs) to executives.

All social orders are hierarchies, ours included. China is poorer and has no democratic tradition -- and little heritage of capitalism. 

Quote:So if you're Xi Jinping, and your policies are guided by the
view that you're head of the Master Race, that you're dealing
with barbarians, and that you have to follow the policies of
Confucius and Sun Tzu to deal with these barbarians, then there's
no choice: You really are a total idiot.  And if you're a dictator,
then you can adopt the stupidest and most idiotic policies
possible, and no one will stop you.

That applies to all dictators and despots everywhere and at all times.
 
And if you are a bigot like Donald Trump, then you are convinced that you are part of some Master Race that can rarely trust anyone unlike oneself unless that other is utterly servile. Someone from overseas can attribute such to chattel slavery, abuse of First Peoples, brutal treatment of people in American colonies (especially the Philippines), and Jim Crow practice. Every nation has blood-soaked pages in its history, and America is no exception. 

In time there will be democracy in China, and as in Japan it will have distinctive characteristics fitting the culture. 

Quote:So that explains why the Chinese make one unbelievably stupid mistake
after another.

With regard to Hong Kong, that's why I say that I don't know what the
CCP is going to do, but there's only one thing you can be sure of:
That whatever the CCP does will only make things worse.

People keep doing stupid things because they get away with it. Nicholas II of Russia kept making military blunders until revolutionaries overthrew him. Hitler kept doing stupid things until he shot himself as the Red Army closed in on the Fuehrerbunker. Nicolae Ceausescu
kept doing offensive deeds in the belief that his style of government was right -- until he saw a crowd turn against him. It's not only political leaders. This even applies to gangsters like Al Capone and John Gotti, business crooks like the Enron clique, and the coterie at Lehman Brothers who were the focus of the 2008 financial crash.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 18-Nov-2019 China vs Japan and Korea

(11-17-2019, 10:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Koreans and Japanese seem to have the same characteristics, so it
> goes beyond race. Chinese culture is difficult to crack.

I'll pass over your idiotic equivalencing of Donald Trump and
Xi Jinping, which almost surpasses the typical level of stupidity
of such comparisons, and move onto your remarks equivalencing
Korea and Japan with China.

You're confusing nationalism with China's CCP religious cult. Every
country experiences nationalism and xenophobia in a generational
Crisis era, but the nationalism ends when the crisis war ends and the
countries moves through the Recovery era into the Awakening era. So
such periods of nationalism last at most a few decades. And in fact,
Japan and South Korea are fully integrated into the Western
international community, as members in good standing of the United
Nations, WTO, and other international organizations.

But China is nothing of the sort. Their racist view of themselves
as the Master Race is not decades old. It's millennia old.

China treats international organizations like the UN and WTO
contemptuously, always making it clear that even though international
law applies fully to all the barbarian countries, international law
does not apply to the Master Race in China, and the only thing that
matters to China is Chinese law.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(11-18-2019, 04:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: China treats international organizations like the UN and WTO
contemptuously, always making it clear that even though international
law applies fully to all the barbarian countries, international law
does not apply to the Master Race in China, and the only thing that
matters to China is Chinese law.

Not, this globalist propaganda again. Americans Hate the UN and WTO and your ideal of the US being a standard-bearer for the UN, WTO and other such organizations has already been rejected by the American People. Remember we had an election a little over 3 years ago now that was largely about our Country's stance regarding such ideals and organizations. I remember quite clearly that the political elements in both parties that advocated that America support those organizations and ideals LOST that election.

[pbrower2a]

(11-18-2019, 04:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 18-Nov-2019 China vs Japan and Korea

(11-17-2019, 10:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   Koreans and Japanese seem to have the same characteristics, so it
>   goes beyond race. Chinese culture is difficult to crack.

I'll pass over your idiotic equivalencing of Donald Trump and
Xi Jinping, which almost surpasses the typical level of stupidity
of such comparisons, and move onto your remarks equivalencing
Korea and Japan with China.

Donald Trump is the most despotic or dictatorial President that we have ever had -- by far. His dalliances with dictators say much about him as a person. This is not pragmatic search for allies against something worse. Trump has been degrading the separation of power, checks and balances, and rule of law essential to democracy.He has severely debased public discourse, and he has promoted a personality cult around himself. He is still taking baby steps toward full-blown totalitarianism, but the trend should be obvious. Trump is a sick joke in democratic countries, and he s a sick joke to Americans who appreciate the American political heritage. 

... Japan and Korea also have cultures tough to crack -- in that sense, just the same as China.  

Quote:You're confusing nationalism with China's CCP religious cult.  Every
country experiences nationalism and xenophobia in a generational
Crisis era, but the nationalism ends when the crisis war ends and the
countries moves through the Recovery era into the Awakening era.  So
such periods of nationalism last at most a few decades.  And in fact,
Japan and South Korea are fully integrated into the Western
international community, as members in good standing of the United
Nations, WTO, and other international organizations.

But China is nothing of the sort.  Their racist view of themselves
as the Master Race is not decades old.  It's millennia old.

Does anyone other than the CCP pretend that China is a democracy? Almost all cultures are prone to tribalism, if not racism.

Quote:China treats international organizations like the UN and WTO
contemptuously, always making it clear that even though international
law applies fully to all the barbarian countries, international law
does not apply to the Master Race in China, and the only thing that
matters to China is Chinese law.

So China is not a model of a society to be imitated. Ho-hum. As Benjamin Franklin said, those who sacrifice their essential freedoms for some temporary safety get neither freedom not safety. Maybe in more recent decades people have heard the siren song of jobs and economic growth in exchange for political freedom... the work came with abysmal pay and the economic improvements happened for only a few who needed no help.   --   

[Warren Dew]

(11-18-2019, 04:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: You're confusing nationalism with China's CCP religious cult.  Every
country experiences nationalism and xenophobia in a generational
Crisis era, but the nationalism ends when the crisis war ends and the
countries moves through the Recovery era into the Awakening era.  So
such periods of nationalism last at most a few decades.  And in fact,
Japan and South Korea are fully integrated into the Western
international community, as members in good standing of the United
Nations, WTO, and other international organizations.

But China is nothing of the sort.  Their racist view of themselves
as the Master Race is not decades old.  It's millennia old.

The Japanese have at least as racist a view of their own superiority, which has been around for centuries at a minimum.  It hasn't prevented them from integrating with the west in terms of international organizations.

For that matter, the Europeans and European descended Americans have just as racist a view of their own superiority, with the assumption that western democracy is the one true way.

On the other hand, the CCP isn't even one century old.

So which one is the problem?  Racism, which everyone has, even if they rarely recognize it in themselves, or the CCP as a quasireligious cult?

[Warren Dew]

(11-19-2019, 12:52 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Not, this globalist propaganda again. Americans Hate the UN and WTO and your ideal of the US being a standard-bearer for the UN, WTO and other such organizations has already been rejected by the American People. Remember we had an election a little over 3 years ago now that was largely about our Country's stance regarding such ideals and organizations. I remember quite clearly that the political elements in both parties that advocated that America support those organizations and ideals LOST that election.

What the US needs to do as standard bearer is to use our political power to reshape those organizations to protect US interests, instead of allowing them to protect everyone else against us as they're being used now.