Generational Dynamics World View

[David Horn]

(11-19-2019, 08:22 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(11-18-2019, 04:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: You're confusing nationalism with China's CCP religious cult.  Every country experiences nationalism and xenophobia in a generational
Crisis era, but the nationalism ends when the crisis war ends and the countries moves through the Recovery era into the Awakening era.  So
such periods of nationalism last at most a few decades.  And in fact, Japan and South Korea are fully integrated into the Western
international community, as members in good standing of the United Nations, WTO, and other international organizations.

But China is nothing of the sort.  Their racist view of themselves as the Master Race is not decades old.  It's millennia old.

The Japanese have at least as racist a view of their own superiority, which has been around for centuries at a minimum.  It hasn't prevented them from integrating with the west in terms of international organizations.

For that matter, the Europeans and European descended Americans have just as racist a view of their own superiority, with the assumption that western democracy is the one true way.

On the other hand, the CCP isn't even one century old.

So which one is the problem?  Racism, which everyone has, even if they rarely recognize it in themselves, or the CCP as a quasireligious cult?

It's a pretty well established theory in the social sciences that humans are wired to favor those who look like them.  This may be a leftover trait from our prehistoric past, since tribes came into existence for protection, being essentially extended families.  the ethnocentric part was just an outgrowth of that.  We can certainly overcome that trait, but it's easy to fall prey to the demons.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Nov-2019 World View: China's 'Middle Kingdom' religious cult

(11-19-2019, 08:22 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The Japanese have at least as racist a view of their own
> superiority, which has been around for centuries at a minimum. It
> hasn't prevented them from integrating with the west in terms of
> international organizations.

> For that matter, the Europeans and European descended Americans
> have just as racist a view of their own superiority, with the
> assumption that western democracy is the one true way.

> On the other hand, the CCP isn't even one century old.

> So which one is the problem? Racism, which everyone has, even if
> they rarely recognize it in themselves, or the CCP as a
> quasireligious cult?

As you know, I've spent thousands of hours studying Chinese history
going back millennia, and I've written thousands of articles and a
full length book.

So, Chinese history is drenched and permeated with this "Middle
Kingdom" concept -- there was the Kingdom of heaven, there was China
(the Middle Kingdom), and there were the barbarians (you and me and
the rest of the world). This is what I called a CCP "religious cult"
-- but not just since the CCP came to power, but back through every
government and every dynasty I've looked at for millennia.

So it's true that Japan and the Europeans are "racist," especially
during a generational Crisis era, but nothing like the Chinese
religious cult. The Chinese religious cult is poisonous, and is
nothing like anything I've seen in any other country.

Just to take one example, I've also written a full length book on
Iran, and Iran has had Persian empires going back for millennia, just
like China, but there is absolutely nothing in Iran's history that
even vaguely resembles the Chinese "Middle Kingdom" cult. You might
look at what's going on in Iran today, and you might call the Persians
"racist," and you might even say that since the 1979 civil war Iran
has had its own religious cult, but once again, there is nothing in
Iran like the Chinese "Middle Kingdom" religious cult that has
permeated Chinese culture, not just since 1979, not just for a
century, but for almost three millennia.

I haven't written a whole book on Japan or Korea, but I've analyzed
them for thousands of articles, and I can say with absolute certainty
that while each may be "racist" in its own way, neither culture
contains anything remotely like the poisonous cult culture that China
has had for millennia. It's no exaggeration to say that this
poisonous culture makes China both unique in history and extremely
dangerous.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong protesters folding like a cheap suit

Guest Wrote:> I think the Hong Kongers will fold like cheap suits. Just like I
> correctly predicted about the Catalans.

The problem with posting anonymously and not registering, creating an
account, and posting under your own account is that claims of past
"correct" predictions cannot be verified, so are useless.

At any rate, it doesn't really matter, because the situations in
Catalonia and Hong Kong are completely different.

In Catalonia, the separatists folded like cheap suits because all
their government officials were being arrested, so they had no
leadership. Furthermore, half the population of Catalonia was opposed
to the separatist movement, and there was no group of people in Spain
outside Catalonia who were particularly sympathetic.

In Hong Kong, the government is already controlled by the CCP through
Carrie Lam, so there's no government leadership to arrest. Second,
the Hong Kong protests are organic. There were some pro-democracy MPs
or activists arrested, but they hadn't been providing leadership, so
the arrests had no effect except to turn the arrested kids into
heroes. Third, the pro-democracy protesters are generally supported
by 70-80% of the population, and there is also popular support from
Cantonese speaking people on the mainland in southern China.

There are other factors too. The Spanish politicians could promise
the Catalonians a bright future as part of Spain. But the CCP can
only promise that the Hong Kongers will be treated more and more
harshly in the future, and that they and their children will be
subjected to a full-scale brutal CCP dictatorship in 2047, with all
the oppression and atrocities that go with the CCP.

One more factor: Catalonia was always part of Spain, while Hong Kong
was part of Britain until 1997, so they remember what freedom was
like.

So I don't know if you're speaking for the CCP when you say that the
Hong Kong protesters will fold like a cheap suit, but from the point
of view of Generational Dynamics there will be at most a pause, if
that, before a new round of organic protests begin.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 20-Nov-2019 World View: BBC reports torture of British consulate employee

The BBC this morning is reporting a horrific story about how Simon
Cheng, a former British consulate employee in Hong Kong, was abducted,
jailed, blindfolded and tortured for 15 days, during an August trip to
China.

Cheng had been collecting information about the Hong Kong protesters
on assignment from the British consulate in Hong Kong.

The CCP frequently arrests and tortures foreign visitors to China, but
this was a particularly egregious situation because of Cheng's
connection to the UK consulate.

The UK foreign secretary Dominic Raab said he was "shocked and
appalled" by what happened, and summoned the Chinese ambassador to
demand an explanation. China's foreign ministry has reportedly said
that it's ambassador would "refuse the invitation."

That's really hilarious since China's foreign ministry at the same
time has just summoned a US diplomat, William Klein, to threaten
retaliation if Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong "Human Rights and
Democracy" bill that the Senate passed unanimously on Tuesday.

The House of Representatives has passed its own bill, and the two will
have to be reconciled before the bill can be sent to Trump for
signature. However, the bill has passed with more than enough votes
so that a Trump veto would be overridden. It thus seems almost
certain that, one way or another, the bill will become law.

Hong Kong enjoys a special U.S. trading consideration that bolsters
its status as a world financial center. The bill threatens to remove
this special consideration if China violates human rights in Hong
Kong. It also provides for sanctions against officials responsible
for human rights violations in Hong Kong.

The Senate then passed a second bill, also unanimously, that would ban
the export of certain munitions to Hong Kong police forces. It bans
the export of items such as tear gas, pepper spray, rubber bullets and
stun guns.

On Wednesday, China's foreign ministry spokesman said the following:

Quote: "On November 19, the US Senate passed the Hong Kong
Human Rights and Democracy Act. This act neglects facts and truth,
applies double standards and blatantly interferes in Hong Kong
affairs and China's other internal affairs. It is in serious
violation of international law and basic norms governing
international relations. China condemns and firmly opposes
it."

It's always hilarious when the CCP foreign ministry sleazebags accuse
anyone of violating international law, since they've made it clear
that international law doesn't apply to them or be obeyed by them (the
Master Race), and only applies to the rest of us, the barbarians.

Wednesday's news of the abduction, jailing, blindfolding and torture
of a former British consulate employee comes just a few days after the
news of the leak of hundreds of top secret Chinese documents on the
jailings and enslavement of millions of Uighurs.

** 18-Nov-19 World View -- Trove of leaked China documents detail jailing of Xinjiang's Muslim Uighurs
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191118

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2) Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/


---- Sources:

-- Simon Cheng: Former UK consulate worker says he was tortured in
China
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50457262
(BBC, 20-Nov-2019)

-- Senate unanimously passes Hong Kong 'Human Rights and Democracy'
bill
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congres...l-n1086401
(Reuters, 20-Nov-2019)

-- Simon Cheng / Former UK official in Hong Kong 'tortured in 15-day
China ordeal'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/n...ina-ordeal
(Guardian, London, 20-Nov-2019)

-- Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang's Remarks on US Senate
Passing Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_66...6773.shtml
(China Foreign Ministry, 20-Nov-2019)

-- China summons US diplomat, vows to retaliate if Donald Trump signs
Hong Kong democracy act into law
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac...kong-human
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 20-Nov-2019)

[pbrower2a]

(11-19-2019, 07:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 19-Nov-2019 World View: China's 'Middle Kingdom' religious cult

(11-19-2019, 08:22 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   The Japanese have at least as racist a view of their own
>   superiority, which has been around for centuries at a minimum.  It
>   hasn't prevented them from integrating with the west in terms of
>   international organizations.

>   For that matter, the Europeans and European descended Americans
>   have just as racist a view of their own superiority, with the
>   assumption that western democracy is the one true way.

>   On the other hand, the CCP isn't even one century old.

>   So which one is the problem?  Racism, which everyone has, even if
>   they rarely recognize it in themselves, or the CCP as a
>   quasireligious cult?

As you know, I've spent thousands of hours studying Chinese history
going back millennia, and I've written thousands of articles and a
full length book.

So, Chinese history is drenched and permeated with this "Middle
Kingdom" concept -- there was the Kingdom of heaven, there was China
(the Middle Kingdom), and there were the barbarians (you and me and
the rest of the world).  This is what I called a CCP "religious cult"
-- but not just since the CCP came to power, but back through every
government and every dynasty I've looked at for millennia.

Unless you read Chinese, you have at most a superficial understanding of China no matter how much you read in translated material.  

One big difference -- Japan has been occupied only once in its history, and then by the least objectionable overlords in history. You know who. The Mongols, if they ever reached Japan, were shipwreck victims -- survival questionable. The Mongols brutalized China badly. Japan was strong enough to be a colonizer instead of a victim, and it was in better shape to establish capitalism, industry,  and (until such was aborted) and inchoate democracy. And, yes, Japan was part of the brutalization of Chinese history. 

If something went really bad in America, like a fascist regime, and I had to choose between Chinese and Japanese occupation, I would prefer Japanese. Of course I am no criminal, and I might be delighted to purge criminals into the Japanese penal system, which is very harsh due to thought reform. Political offenders in China get about the same treatment as drug dealers in Japan... don't deal drugs in Japan.  

Quote:So it's true that Japan and the Europeans are "racist," especially
during a generational Crisis era, but nothing like the Chinese
religious cult.  The Chinese religious cult is poisonous, and is
nothing like anything I've seen in any other country.

The Japanese thug regime of WWII was horrific, without any question. If the Nazis were more systematic in their cruelty, the Japanese of World War II were unruly in the extreme.

Quote:Just to take one example, I've also written a full length book on
Iran, and Iran has had Persian empires going back for millennia, just
like China, but there is absolutely nothing in Iran's history that
even vaguely resembles the Chinese "Middle Kingdom" cult.  You might
look at what's going on in Iran today, and you might call the Persians
"racist," and you might even say that since the 1979 civil war Iran
has had its own religious cult, but once again, there is nothing in
Iran like the Chinese "Middle Kingdom" religious cult that has
permeated Chinese culture, not just since 1979, not just for a
century, but for almost three millennia.

The Communist Party of the People's Republic of China has gutted the Marxist-Leninist-Maoist heritage except for symbolism and the dictatorship. As such it is a fascist party in all but name. Iran under the theocracy is fascist. 

I concede that the current CCP is an improvement over the Maoist madness, but democratization will be difficult in China. Maybe the Kuomintang made a huge mistake by, despite admiration for the United States, not establishing a federal system. 

As you can expect from me I am ready for a cheap swipe at President Trump: he is gutting the American political heritage, reducing our Founding Fathers to icons in favor of what I would expect to develop into a "Christian and Corporate State" that fits the ideology of the TEA Party faction that has taken over the Republican Party and transformed it into semi-fascist Party.   

Quote:I haven't written a whole book on Japan or Korea, but I've analyzed
them for thousands of articles, and I can say with absolute certainty
that while each may be "racist" in its own way, neither culture
contains anything remotely like the poisonous cult culture that China
has had for millennia.  It's no exaggeration to say that this
poisonous culture makes China both unique in history and extremely
dangerous.

China is a multicultural empire with a highly-centralized regime. Japan and Korea are nearly mono-ethnic, and Korea is effectively split into two mono-cultural societies.  Could democracy flourish in China? It seems to do so in Taiwan, and I see no indication that overseas Chinese are hostile to democracy where they are. 

The danger of China is not so much its ideology; it is the soul-crushing  dictatorship.

[Warren Dew]

(11-19-2019, 07:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As you know, I've spent thousands of hours studying Chinese history
going back millennia, and I've written thousands of articles and a
full length book.

And the book doesn't say anything like what you're saying now. Apparently you've forgotten everything you learned from researching the book.

Quote:Third, the pro-democracy protesters are generally supported
by 70-80% of the population

Not correct.  The original protests against the extradition bill were supported by 70-80% of the population, which is why the bill was withdrawn.  The current violent protests are likely supported by 20-30% of the population at best.  Bashing peoples' skulls in with bricks and pouring gasoline on people and setting them on fire, as the protesters are now doing, will make you less popular like that.

The current protesters aren't protesting mainland Chinese rule, anyway.  They're protesting Hong Kong government rule.  They're protesting against how Hong Kong business interests have what they view as an outsize influence on the Hong Kong government, and basically want a one person one vote government instead.  These are the same protests that used to crop up from time to time against the Hong Kong government when it was a British Crown Colony, for essentially the same reasons. The issues are the same whether the colonial power is British or Chinese.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 22-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong

(11-22-2019, 01:56 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > And the book doesn't say anything like what you're saying now.
> Apparently you've forgotten everything you learned from
> researching the book.

I don't know what you're talking about.

Quote:> Third, the pro-democracy protesters are
> generally supported by
> 70-80% of the population

(11-22-2019, 01:56 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Not correct. The original protests against the extradition bill
> were supported by 70-80% of the population, which is why the bill
> was withdrawn. The current violent protests are likely supported
> by 20-30% of the population at best. Bashing peoples' skulls in
> with bricks and pouring gasoline on people and setting them on
> fire, as the protesters are now doing, will make you less popular
> like that.

> The current protesters aren't protesting mainland Chinese rule,
> anyway. They're protesting Hong Kong government rule. They're
> protesting against how Hong Kong business interests have what they
> view as an outsize influence on the Hong Kong government, and
> basically want a one person one vote government instead. These
> are the same protests that used to crop up from time to time
> against the Hong Kong government when it was a British Crown
> Colony, for essentially the same reasons. The issues are the same
> whether the colonial power is British or Chinese.

All I can tell you is that I hear this all the time on the BBC,
Bloomberg, Fox News and al-Jazeera. The majority of Hong Kongers are
opposed to the violence, but they support the goals of the
pro-democracy protesters.

I'm not sure how you're distinguishing between "mainland Chinese rule"
and the Hong Kong government. By this time, most people agree that
Carrie Lam is simply a puppet of the CCP, so there's not significant
distinction.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 22-Nov-2019 World View: Uprisings in Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Venezuela

The continuing chaos in Bolivia has resulted in a mainstream media
spate of stories about demonstrations, populism and uprising in
several Latin American countries, particularly: Bolivia, Brazil,
Ecuador, Chile, and Venezuela.

These stories are sometimes extended to Colombia, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon,
Sudan, Haiti, Kashmir, Afghanistan, and of course Hong Kong.

The stories all give the same core reason: poverty. A lazy or
ignorant reporter assigned to write a story about demonstrations or
riots in some country, just has to check the inflation rate,
unemployment rate, grocery prices, or gasoline prices, and simply
blame the riots on one or more of those. In fact, the news story
could be written by a bot.

The problem with just naming poverty as the reason is that there's
always some level of poverty in every country, including countries
where there are no demonstrations and riots. Some reason has to be
found why poverty in one country is different from the same level of
poverty in another country, and that question is never addressed.

The articles about riots in Latin America point to the rise of
Socialist or left-wing governments, but once again, give no reason why
socialist governments are rising in some countries but not others.
Mostly, the reporters are confused about whether to blame the
socialism for the poverty or the poverty for the socialism. Sometimes
they blame both of them on Trump.

In the case of Latin America, not a single article that I read today
mentioned the split between indigenous people (Amerindians) versus the
descendants of European invaders and mestizos (children of
intermarriage). This is an important issue in every Latin American
country, and it's an issue that the mainstream "reporters" are
apparently too embarrassed to mention, even though it's the most
important issue in most cases, and even though this issue is
enormously obvious to the people who live in the country. As I
described in my recent article on Bolivia, the European descendants
marginalize the indigenous people, resulting in political differences.
These political differences can turn into demonstrations, riots and
uprisings when the economy worsens, since the marginalized indigenous
people are the hurt the most.

** 15-Nov-19 World View -- Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191115


One problem for mainstream reporters is that to understand what's
going on requires knowing a little bit about the history of the
country they're reporting on. College students today are taking
far-left courses in sociology, women's studies and underwater
basket-weaving, where they're taught nothing about history,
and are taught that Socialism is wonderful. These children know
nothing about history, and believe that "history always begins
this morning," so they look on far-left socialist movements as a
good thing, not even having a clue that what's going on is not
socialism vs capitalism, but Europeans vs Amerindians.

Riots and demonstrations have been spreading among Latin American
countries, initially led by Venezuela, as indigenous people in one
country follow the lead of indigenous rioters in another country.
Within the last couple of weeks, Colombia has joined this list of
rioters.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are two
important trends in Latin America.

First, most of these Latin American countries had their last
generational crisis civil wars in the 1960s or thereabout, and so by
the 58-Year Hypothesis, they're coming due for the next crisis civil
war. At present they're in a generational Unraveling era, and so
there are periods of demonstrations alternating with periods of
ceasefires, but a new full-scale crisis civil war is not expected for
another few years.

Second, most of the world is in a generational Crisis era, and a
feature of this era is that central banks have been cutting back on
"printing" money, which means that there's less money in the world,
which means that there's less money per capita, resulting in poverty
among margialized people.

In the meantime, the world is approaching a new world war, and the
demonstrations, riots and uprisings in the Latin American countries
and elsewhere will in the end be folded into the world war.

---- Sources:

-- Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile / South America's
uprisings are about more than politics
https://www.axios.com/south-america-upri...d8b17.html
(Axios, 21-Nov-2019)

-- Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Venezuela / Opinion:
Latin America needs solidarity
https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-latin-amer...a-51038560
(Deutsche Welle, 29-Oct-2019)

-- Latin America’s upheaval should finally shatter conventional wisdom
about the region
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...ut-region/
(Washington Post, 22-Nov-2019)

-- Roundup: Mass protests hint at deeper crises behind the headlines
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/...-headlines
(Memri, 22-Nov-2019)

-- Leftist Government In Latin America: A Comparison Of Bolivia,
Brazil, Chile, And Venezuela
http://lanic.utexas.edu/project/etext/ll...eftist.pdf
(University of Texas, PDF, 2008):

[David Horn]

(11-22-2019, 03:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I'm not sure how you're distinguishing between "mainland Chinese rule" and the Hong Kong government.  By this time, most people agree that Carrie Lam is simply a puppet of the CCP, so there's not significant distinction.

A rare point of total agreement.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong elections

JCP Wrote:> THURSDAY: Police confirm evacuating mainland #China university
> students from #HongKong by boat. Other students on social media
> say taking taxis, volunteer private cars to catch trains to nearby
> mainland city Shenzhen. SZ Communist Party youth league offering
> them free room/board

> https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/11...5272272896

> The Chinese are getting ready to massacre protesters in Hong
> Kong. Will make for horrific television viewing--at least until
> the feed is cut.

I don't believe that this is a change. As I understand it, there
are only a couple of dozen protesters still hiding away inside
the university, and the police have said they'll wait them out.

Hong Kong is holding elections on Sunday. Everyone has been on
their best behavior this past week, in order to get votes.

As of this time (midnight ET = Sunday 1 pm in HK), al-Jazeera is
reporting much larger than usual turnout.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Nov-2019 World View: 'Stunning upsets' in historic Hong Kong elections

• Long queues of people waiting to vote at the Aberdeen Sports
  Centre in Hong Kong on Sunday (SCMP)

In Hong Kong, Sunday's local district council elections are headed for
a historic wipe-out in favor of the Pan Democrats pro-democracy camp,
and terrible for city leader Carrie Lam, and a huge rebuff to the
Beijing-based Chinese Communist Party (CCP), according to reports on
several tv channels, as of this time (Sunday 1 pm ET = Monday 2 am in
Hong Kong).

The Hong Kong based South China Morning Post is saying the same thing,
pointing to a "stunning upset," with well-established pro-Beijing
candidates Junius Ho and Michael Tien already losing their seats.

These local district council elections are considered extremely
significant because they're open to any candidates that choose to run.
This is in contrast to the regular legislative elections and the
election for city leader, where the only candidates permitted to run
have to be approved by the CCP.

Sunday's elections had a record turnout of 71.2%, while previous
similar elections had turnouts of 49%. Many of those turning out
were young first-time voters.

These reports are all preliminary, but are expected to hold unless
there's a massive reversal in the official vote count.

These historic upsets are going to "put wind in the sails" of the
pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and the pro-separatists in
Taiwan.

The CCP in Beijing is already close to full-scale panic over what's
happening in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Sunday's vote will prove to the
CCP that their worst fears and anxieties are coming true, and it may
cause them to panic.

As I keep pointing out, the CCP has a record of doing one incredibly
stupid thing after another. I don't know what the CCP will do about
the situation in Hong Kong, but I can say with certainty that whatever
they do, it will make the situation worse.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2) Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

---- Sources:

-- Hong Kong elections: Junius Ho and Michael Tien lose district
council seats in stunning upsets
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/poli...sults-blog
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)

-- Hong Kong’s district council elections traditionally handle
municipal matters. This year it was a global event as almost 3
million residents clamoured to be heard
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/poli...lly-handle
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)

-- Massive turnout in Hong Kong vote seen as pro-democracy test
https://apnews.com/de8a8e79d7a640ccbf80e96c79e41828
(AP, 24-Nov-2019)

[Warren Dew]

(11-22-2019, 03:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: All I can tell you is that I hear this all the time on the BBC,
Bloomberg, Fox News and al-Jazeera.CP, so there's not significant
distinction.

So all you do is parrot the mainstream media on Hong Kong?  That explains a lot.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Nov-2019 Hong Kong pro-democracy victory

(11-22-2019, 03:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > All I can tell you is that I hear this all the time on the BBC,
> Bloomberg, Fox News and al-Jazeera.CP, so there's not significant
> distinction.

(11-24-2019, 02:39 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > So all you do is parrot the mainstream media on Hong Kong? That
> explains a lot.

You seem bitter and angry that the pro-democracy candidates are
winning massively in Hong Kong, and Carrie Lam's pro-CCP candidates
are losing.

[Warren Dew]

You're projecting. I couldn't care less about how prodemocracy candidates do in seats that have little to no power anyway. The Hong Kong government will remain in the control of the business interests, as the structure of the government has always guaranteed.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Nov-2019 Inanity

(11-24-2019, 09:42 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > You're projecting. I couldn't care less about how prodemocracy
> candidates do in seats that have little to no power anyway. The
> Hong Kong government will remain in the control of the business
> interests, as the structure of the government has always
> guaranteed.

Well, if that's true, then once again I have no idea what you're
talking about, except that every once in a while you enjoy emitting
some inane, incoherent criticism of me.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray
  
• Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands'
  
• Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election
  

****
**** Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray
****


Pro-democracy supporters celebrate huge gains in the district council elections (AP)

In what is being described as a historic election, pro-democracy
activists in Hong Kong's Pan Democracy party have won a massive
victory in electing members for local district councils. The
elections had a record turnout of 71%, while similar elections in 2015
had a turnout of just 47%. Many of those turning out this time were
young first-time voters.

Votes are still being counted. At this time (Sunday evening ET =
Monday morning in Hong Kong), the pro-democracy parties have won 201
seats, while pro-CCP parties have won only 28 seats, with 12 seats for
independents, out of a total of 452 seats. The other 221 seats have
not yet been determined at this time.

Roughly speaking, it appears that pro-democracy parties will control
3/4 of the seats, whereas prior to this election they controlled
roughly 1/4 of the seats. So this is a "historic" reversal at this
level of government.

There have been some "stunning upsets," with well-established pro-CCP
candidates Junius Ho and Michael Tien already losing their seats.
These people have been harshly critical of the pro-democracy
demonstrations, and have threatened jailing and violence of
protesters, even peaceful ones.

In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils only
control such things as parks and taxicabs. They are not as powerful
as the city's Legislative Council, which controls the citywide
government.

The difference is that anyone is permitted to run for the district
council positions, while the only candidates that can run for the
Legislative Council must first be approved by the CCP in Beijing. So
the local councils are far more democratic, but the Legislative
Council is anti-democratic, but far more powerful.

The huge victory follows five months of pro-democracy street protests,
mostly peaceful but sometimes becoming violent. The pro-CCP camp had
referred to a "silent majority" of voters who who would vote for their
candidates, to show their rejection of the violence of the street
protesters. But actually, violence worked both ways in this election.
Some voted for the pro-CCP candidates because of the street protest
violence, but there was also plenty of violence on the other side --
attacks on the peaceful protesters by police and by white-shirt "triad
thugs."

****
**** Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands'
****

These historic upsets are going to "put wind in the sails" of the
pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and the pro-separatists in
Taiwan.

In Hong Kong, pro-democracy activists are now demanding that Carrie
Lam finally respond to the five demands that the protesters announced
months ago.

The first demand was the withdrawal of the "extradition bill," which
would have permitted the CCP to abduct and arrest people in Hong Kong
and bring them to the mainland for prosecution. Carrie Lam finally
withdrew the bill, but only after several months of equivocation.

During that period, the activists expanded what they wanted to a list
of five demands. The five demands are for the withdrawal of the bill,
an agreement not to call the clashes of June 12 a riot, amnesty for
those arrested on that day, a commission inquiry into allegations of
excessive use of force by the police and a push for genuine universal
suffrage.

It was thought that the CCP would never agree to any of these demands
(except the first), but now activists are saying that the climate must
change because of the overwhelming pro-democracy victory in Hong Kong,
which refutes the CCP claim of a "silent majority" supporting CCP.
The activists claim that this victory forces Carrie Lam to open
negotiations on the remaining four demands.

The CCP could do a lot to defuse the situation in Hong Kong by
permitting Carrie Lam to open those negotiations with the
pro-democracy activists. But that would be the smart thing to do, and
as I've written many times, the CCP always one incredibly stupid thing
after another. We'll see, but my expectation is that the CCP will do
something stupid that will make things worse.

****
**** Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election
****

Pro-separatists activists in Taiwan are taking note of the historic
election in Hong Kong, and are hoping that they'll affect Taiwan's
presidential race in January.

The CCP considers Taiwan to be part of China, and any move to declare
Taiwan a separation nation would be an act of secession that would
trigger a Chinese military invasion.

Taiwan's current president is Tsai Ing-wen, from the governing
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Tsai is known to favor complete
independence for Taiwan, although she always uses weasel words in
talking about it, so as not to trigger a Chinese invasion. However,
Tsai has spoken openly of her support for the protesters in Hong Kong,
much to the displeasure of the CCP.

Tsai's opponent is Han Kuo-yu, who is the candidate of the Kuomintang
(KMT) party, which favors merging Taiwan with China.

The CCP has been wooing Taiwan for years by saying that Taiwan could
have a "one country, two systems" just like Hong Kong, and wouldn't
that be wonderful? Tsai’s latest campaign advertisement makes the
assurance that “Taiwan will not become Hong Kong”, while calling on
voters to reject the “one country, two systems” model.

Thus, Sunday's elections in Hong Kong are thought to favor Tsai's
re-election. The reasoning is that voters will see the overwhelming
rejection of the pro-CCP candidates as supporting Tsai in Taiwan.

The CCP in Beijing is already close to full-scale panic over what's
happening in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Sunday's vote will prove to the
CCP that their worst fears and anxieties are coming true, and it may
cause them to panic.

As I keep pointing out, the CCP has a record of doing one incredibly
stupid thing after another. I don't know what the CCP will do about
the situation in Hong Kong or Taiwan, but I can say with certainty
that whatever they do, it will make the situation worse.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

Sources:

• Hong Kong elections: Junius Ho and Michael Tien lose district council seats in stunning upsets (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong’s district council elections traditionally handle municipal matters. This year it was a global event as almost 3 million residents clamoured to be heard (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)
  
• Massive turnout in Hong Kong vote seen as pro-democracy test (AP, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong voters deliver pro-democracy message in 'de facto referendum' (Sydney Morning Herald, 25-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong elections: Pro-democracy groups makes big gains (BBC, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong’s pro-democracy parties sweeping pro-Beijing establishment aside in local elections (Washington Post, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• As it happened: pro-Beijing camp licks wounds after hammering in Hong Kong district council elections (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)
  
• Pro-democracy candidates win big victory in Hong Kong election (Financial Times, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong elections: tsunami of disaffection washes over city as pro-Beijing camp left reeling by record turnout and landslide defeat (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong voters deliver landslide victory for pro-democracy campaigners (Guardian, London, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong democrats romp to local election landslide after months of protests (Reuters, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• Factbox: What people in Hong Kong are saying about district council elections (Reuters, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong democrats score historic victory amid ongoing protests (Al-Jazeera, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• Could Hong Kong protests give Tsai Ing-wen the edge in Taiwan’s presidential race? (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 24-Nov-2019)
  
• Hong Kong District Council election: Pro-democracy candidates win majority of seats, as pro-Beijing camp suffers historic defeat (Hong Kong Free Press, 24-Nov-2019)

Related Articles:

• Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence (02-Oct-2019)
  
  
• UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots (04-Jul-2019)
  
  
• Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China (22-Jun-2019)
  
  
• US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite China's fury (10-Jul-2019)
  
  
• Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China (21-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Taiwan says that China is 'out of control' after El Salvador switches allegiance (22-Aug-2018)
  
  
• China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan (17-May-2018)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
  
  
• China's 'Anti-secession law' provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Carrie Lam,Legislative Council,
Pan Democratic party,
Democratic Alliance For The Betterment Of Hong Kong,
Junius Ho, Michael Tien,
Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
Han Kuo-yu, Kuomintang, KMT

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong's Carrie Lam speaks

At Monday 9 pm ET = Tuesday 10 am in Hong Kong, I watched Hong Kong's
leader Carrie Lam live on tv give a brief speech about the disastrous
elections.

If I understood her correctly, she's decided how to react to the
massive election loss: She's going to appoint a commission to
determine the root cause why there are pro-democracy demonstrations.

I didn't hear a word even acknowledging the pro-democracy concerns, or
any word of compromise. Instead, there will be a commission whose
foregone conclusion will be to absolve the government and the CCP of
any responsibility.

I said that I didn't know what the CCP was going to do, but I could
guarantee that whatever they did would make the situation worse, and
it looks like we're on our way. Incredible!

[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan

richard5za Wrote:> Both Hong Kong and Taiwan are regarded by the CCP as Chinese
> territory so there is a linkage

> I wonder what will eventually happen in Hong Kong? If CCP past
> behavior is the guideline it will be a heavy handed response. And
> then what will that create? Pro-democracy freedom fighters have a
> history of support. Could this be the start of regional
> war?

The CCP thugs really don't care about anything except themselves and
their Mandate from Heaven, so they're baffled by the Hong Kong crisis,
especially since the recent elections shows that most of their working
assumptions have been dead wrong.

China's history is filled with massive anti-government rebellions, and
many of them were triggered by religious movements. That's why the
CCP is so hysterically paranoid about religions. That's why they
beat, torture, rape and jail Christians, Buddhists and Muslims, and
sometimes even Daoists.

The Taiping Rebellion (1852-64) in particular was led by a Christian
convert who believed that he was the son of God and the younger
brother of Jesus. The rebellion began in the south and spread north.
Hong Xiuquan became the very charismatic leader of the God Worshipping
Society, in a domain of southern China called Taiping Tianguo
(Heavenly Kingdom of Eternal Peace). He gained thousands of followers
as his word spread, leading to the massive Taiping Rebellion. The CCP
is VERY well aware of that history. They're also well aware that
Mao's Communist Revolution anti-government rebellion started in the
south and spread north.

So that's the history that the CCP thugs are dealing with. Xi Jinping
would happily just flatten all of Hong Kong if he thought that would
keep him safe. But doing anything so brutal would risk triggering an
anti-CCP rebellion in southern China. Furthermore, both Donald Trump
and the US Congress are tying Hong Kong human rights to US-China trade
and sanctions, and the Chinese are increasingly desperate for a trade
deal. This infuriates the CCP thugs who say that Hong Kong policy is
the internal affair of China, and that the barbarians in Washington
should never dare to criticize the leaders of the Master Race.

So I'm in agreement with those analysts who say that the CCP will NOT
send in the army -- since the army can't accomplish anything anyway
that the local police can't accomplish. As things stand now, it's the
Hong Kong police, rather than the CCP, who are receiving international
criticism, and the CCP would like it to remain that way.

However, in my opinion, the CCP would change its policy in a
nanosecond if there is any sign that the protests in Hong Kong are
spreading to the mainland in southern China. This is the real fear of
the CCP thugs, and so they're content to treat Hong Kong protests as
the "new normal" for the time being.

Guest Wrote:> I have relatives in Taipei. I would like to ask the writer of this
> blog (and any others who read it) how long an interval would there
> be between a violent crackdown in Hong Kong and an invasion of
> Taiwan? This is a serious question.

Guest Wrote:> I would like to add that some local media say an invasion is
> imminent, but I don't think these people really know anything. The
> same people said we would be invaded in 1997.

Hong Kong and Taiwan are really two completely different situations,
since Hong Kong is officially a territory of China, while Taiwan
is viewed internationally as an independent nation, despite the curses
of the CCP thugs.

Then there's also the problem there would be no military response if
China's military started smashing Hong Kong since, after all, it
is officially a territory of China. On the other hand, Taiwan has
a mutual defense treaty with the US, and a military invasion of Taiwan
would almost certainly lead to a war with the US.

So the two situations are completely different, and a violent crackdown
in Hong Kong would not necessarily lead to an invasion of Taiwan at
all.

However, any sort of internal rebellion on the mainland would change
the CCP calculation, and lead to diversionary invasions of Japan and
Taiwan. If you're looking for a time interval, I would guess several
months after the internal rebellion began.

utahbob Wrote:> You might find this interesting. As the saying goes "follow the
> money." How to Conduct Business with Chinese Companies That See a
> Dark Future By Dan Harris on November 13, 2019
> https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/11/how...uture.html

This is a very interesting article, because it shows how China's
economy is falling apart at the edges, and as Higgie always points
out: "While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the
capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently."
In the case of China, this would be one of China's massive internal
rebellions, and this would lead quickly to an external war as a
diversionary tactic.

utahbob Wrote:> John, good analysis on your comment dated Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:02
> pm. Worse case scenario, it would be like Budapest in 1956 before
> the UN would try to declare a ceasefire for evacuation of
> foreigners.

> This is just my opinion, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is
> pretty vulnerable to fail due to more internal than external
> forces. I would like to state that the CCP is the latest version
> of the Mandarins that has ruled China for the past thousands of
> years. Only 6 to 7 per cent of the Chinese population are members
> of the CCP. This segment of China will fight tooth and nail for
> the CCP.

> One of the more telling facts is the amount of money and energy is
> spent to control its population versus spent on the People’s
> Liberation Army for external defense. It has an army of occupation
> (The People’s Armed Police), information control (Great Fire Wall)
> and surveillance and coordination apparatus (Ministry of State
> Security) with its neighborhood dragnet, digitized “social credit”
> systems and other enforcement systems. The mass detention system
> is getting its first run with the Uighurs and I would bet soon
> other ethnic minorities such as the Mongols, Tibetans, Tajik,
> Korean... will get their turn unfortunately.

> A significant inflection point will be the breakdown of the
> information control system. It is crumbling already due to the
> lack of trust, creditability and cynicism. Chinese people are
> trying to move money out of China or move out completely. I have
> seen this personally.

> Personally, I think there will be war, but not between the US and
> PRC. The general US population is war adverse and a civil war in
> China will not be an existential threat to the US if contained
> within the borders of China. The only action with the US military
> will be the conduct of a Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO)
> from Shanghai, Shenzhen, Dalian and other major cities with
> concentrations of Americans and Westerners.

> John you stated in your book that the odds are tilting to a PRC
> versus Japan knife fight, but I think a warmup will be easier for
> the PRC to go after Taiwan or Vietnam. It would be easier for the
> PLA, PLAF and PLAN to get operational experience. Japan would be
> bloody and you said and I agree, the US would stand behind
> Japan. It would be less like for a USA/PRC conflict over Taiwan
> and/or Vietnam.

> You might find this interesting:
> https://twitter.com/GregPoling/status/11...1458026496 I would
> bet a Sam Adams winter lager that this has been war-gamed by PACOM
> already.

Fantastic! This is a really great analysis.

The only thing that I would add is that you may be assigning too much
rationality to the CCP. The strategy of a "warmup" war is not
realistic in a generational Crisis era, when people are highly
nationalistic and xenophobic, and do not have the patience for a
"warmup." At the first sign of any military clash of any kind, the
nationalists in China would be calling for a full-scale invasion of
Japan and Taiwan, and things would start to move.

[Warren Dew]

(11-24-2019, 10:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Well, if that's true, then once again I have no idea what you're
talking about, except that every once in a while you enjoy emitting
some inane, incoherent criticism of me.

Just trying to get you to further improve your forecasts with more realistic views of what's going on.  This, for instance:

Quote:In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils only
control such things as parks and taxicabs. They are not as powerful
as the city's Legislative Council, which controls the citywide
government.

Which is why, as you point out, the Chinese government will try to stay out of things unless the unrest threatens to spill over into the mainland, or, I would add, unless Carrie Lam's goverment starts entertaining thoughts of independence.

Quote:However, any sort of internal rebellion on the mainland would change
the CCP calculation, and lead to diversionary invasions of Japan and
Taiwan.

What would this be diverting from?  If there were actually an internal rebellion, the rebels wouldn't be diverted because of an external war, and the government wouldn't want to divert loyalists from staying loyal.  An external war with Japan or Taiwan would be far more likely to start because Japan or Taiwan intervened to extract their nationals or protect their interests.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Nov-2019 World View: China's nationalist anti-Japan propaganda

(11-24-2019, 10:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils
> only control such things as parks and taxicabs. They are not as
> powerful as the city's Legislative Council, which controls the
> citywide government.

(11-26-2019, 05:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Which is why, as you point out, the Chinese government will try to
> stay out of things unless the unrest threatens to spill over into
> the mainland, or, I would add, unless Carrie Lam's goverment
> starts entertaining thoughts of independence.

Lol!

(11-24-2019, 10:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > However, any sort of internal rebellion on the mainland would
> change the CCP calculation, and lead to diversionary invasions of
> Japan and Taiwan.

(11-26-2019, 05:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > What would this be diverting from? If there were actually an
> internal rebellion, the rebels wouldn't be diverted because of an
> external war, and the government wouldn't want to divert loyalists
> from staying loyal. An external war with Japan or Taiwan would be
> far more likely to start because Japan or Taiwan intervened to
> extract their nationals or protect their interests.

It's not exactly an unheard of practice for a military leader to
divert forces attacking him to start fighting another enemy.

This is a subject area that I researched a very great deal for my
book, which is not surprising since the book is titled "War between
China and Japan."

Some brief excerpts:

The student pro-democracy protests that led to the Tiananmen Square
massacre in 1989 frightened CCP officials, who realized that being
pro-democracy meant that the young people were becoming increasingly
contemptuous of communist ideology.

That wasn't the only thing that happened around that time. On
December 26, 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and all the former
Soviet republics became independent self-governing nations.

Arguably, the collapse of the Soviet Union was more traumatic to the
CCP than even the Tiananmen Square massacre. Suddenly, the leadership
of the CCP were staring death in the face, as they considered the fact
that something like the Tiananmen Square protests could force the
Chinese Communist Party to collapse as well. Ever since the Bolshevik
Revolution, Russian communism had always been the role model for
Chinese communism. If Russian communism could collapse, then so could
Chinese communism.

In the 1990s, Socialism with Chinese Characteristics began to take on
a whole new and far darker and more sinister meaning. The CCP
leadership became increasingly paranoid, and began seeing ghosts.
Centralism was still in play, but democratic centralism was gone. The
"right to make criticisms" was gone, and any criticism of the CCP
leadership could lead to torture, rape and jailing.

Religious persecution surged, as we described in detail in earlier
chapters. The Buddhism-based Falun Gong movement was and is
particularly targeted, after millions of people became practitioners
of their form of meditation. The CCP has increasingly cracked down on
Christianity and even Daoism, for fear their practice could lead to
overthrow of the CCP.

When any country is preparing for war, it's necessary to educate and
motivate the public to prepare them for war. China has been
conducting a vitriolic anti-Japan propaganda campaign since 1989, the
time of the Tiananmen Square massacre.

The student pro-democracy protests that led to the Tiananmen Square
massacre in 1989 frightened CCP officials, who realized that being
pro-democracy meant that the young people were becoming increasingly
contemptuous of communist ideology. The CCP decided to replace
indoctrination of communist ideology with indoctrination of Chinese
nationalism.

The CCP launched the Patriotic Education Campaign, a propaganda
campaign designed to restore the legitimacy of the CCP government,
according to University of Victoria (Canada) sociology professor Min
Zhou:

Quote:> "The propaganda has been carried out through both the
> educational system and the mass media. It is promulgated not only
> in the form of school curricula (especially officially-sanctioned
> history textbooks), but also in the form of broadcast media,
> films, museums and memorials. ...

> Although everyone in China can be subject to nationalist
> propaganda, the Chinese youth have been singled out as the main
> target group. Accounting for a large part of this nationalist
> propaganda, patriotic education is incorporated into the entire
> process of education from "kindergartens all the way through the
> universities" .... Nationalist propaganda focuses on restoring
> national pride and eliminating national humiliation. China’s
> official media and its education system propagate nationalism
> through repeated emphasis on China’s humiliation and victimhood
> caused by foreign powers over the past two centuries.

> Within this discourse, a particular emphasis is placed upon
> China’s suffering at the hands of aggressive Japanese
> imperialists.... Japan figures prominently in China’s nationalist
> propaganda. One essential component of this propaganda is the
> historical memory of Japan’s wartime atrocities and its apparent
> lack of sincerity in coming to terms with this
> history."

This anti-Japan propaganda campaign is continuing, and is pursued
vigorously today as part of China's preparation for war with Japan.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2) Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/