Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-09-2020, 03:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(11-09-2020, 11:00 AM)David Horn Wrote: A libertarian solution is never going to work.  On a fiscal level, it's rule by oligarch, instead of government.  On a social level, it's only feasible in a world where religion can be set aside (maybe some day, but not now), and where your freedom doesn't imperil me and mine (which is the essence of the gun issue in cities).  Those are irreconcilable for now -- maybe forever in a complex nation like ours.  

I think we've elected trauma as our motivator, since neither side can accept the legitimacy of the other.  The GD-WWII cycle created group cohesion; it's the one case where we achieved it.  Even the ACW, with all the devastation and misery, left the adversaries in place and still in opposition.  Our sclerotic governmental structure is certainly part of it too.  But, so far, we're not making much progress, nor have we identified a viable alternative.  We can't be Canada; we can't be Sweden.

You just supported rule by oligarch. I assume you weren't paying attention or assume that you were unable able to figure that out?  I guess we'll get to see if the blue oligarchs are any better than the blue politicians as far as ruling blue America these days. I think you guys did a wonderful job screwing yourselves this time around.

This site seems to have gotten addicted to extremists, obstructionist and confrontation. If you really want to continue the unravelling pattern of trying to tell another culture how to live, you are part of the problem.

[David Horn]

(11-09-2020, 03:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(11-09-2020, 03:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(11-09-2020, 11:00 AM)David Horn Wrote: A libertarian solution is never going to work.  On a fiscal level, it's rule by oligarch, instead of government.  On a social level, it's only feasible in a world where religion can be set aside (maybe some day, but not now), and where your freedom doesn't imperil me and mine (which is the essence of the gun issue in cities).  Those are irreconcilable for now -- maybe forever in a complex nation like ours.  

I think we've elected trauma as our motivator, since neither side can accept the legitimacy of the other.  The GD-WWII cycle created group cohesion; it's the one case where we achieved it.  Even the ACW, with all the devastation and misery, left the adversaries in place and still in opposition.  Our sclerotic governmental structure is certainly part of it too.  But, so far, we're not making much progress, nor have we identified a viable alternative.  We can't be Canada; we can't be Sweden.

You just supported rule by oligarch. I assume you weren't paying attention or assume that you were unable able to figure that out?  I guess we'll get to see if the blue oligarchs are any better than the blue politicians as far as ruling blue America these days. I think you guys did a wonderful job screwing yourselves this time around.

This site seems to have gotten addicted to extremists, obstructionist and confrontation.  If you really want to continue the unravelling pattern of trying to tell another culture how to live, you are part of the problem.

FWIW, there are plenty of neoliberal oligarchs in the Democratic Party, though the GOP has an even higher concentration and much less people friendly lot.  Until the tax code and labor law can be adjusted to bring that into line, it matters only marginally who is in charge.  For now, assuming Mitch gets to lead the Senate, no change is likely.  I'm not happy, but it's better than it was with Trump holding the whip hand.

[pbrower2a]

(11-09-2020, 03:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(11-09-2020, 11:00 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-07-2020, 03:52 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(11-07-2020, 07:57 AM)David Horn Wrote: The Blue folks have had negative results with the Trumpists.  Don't try to convince them, it merely motivates them to oppose, oppose, oppose!  We have COVID hot spots in overwhelmingly Trump areas, and they go on their merry way making things even worse.  Hospitals, such as they are in rural areas, are already overwhelmed. It's the libs fault!  Nevermind that they only exist because the Dems finally passed Medicare expansion two years ago.

The only potential reversal is something so traumatic that it can't be ignored, or the death of the Boomers.  Our age group is the flame in these rural areas.  I don't see it passing until we do too.  The Red Prophets are still Prophets, and they aren't going to stop.

I’ve been optimistically looking for a principle that would lead us from the argumentative unravelling mindset to the practical problem solving crisis.  What I finally came up with was freedom against tyranny.  Freedom is letting each individual make their own choice.  Tyranny is using the government to force one culture’s choice on the other.

Obviously, freedom is preferable to tyranny.  In one case, the right to bear arms is a choice a tyrannical government would take away.  In another, the woman’s right to control her own body could be taken away.  In another, a person’s skin tone might take away his right for equal justice.

The red and blue do have distinctly different cultures.  The path to freedom means they should not try to impose their culture on the other.  If Biden attempts to find a way to solve things, to stop the conflict between the two cultures, he could do worse than adopt this principle.  If he takes sides and advocates the blue suppressing the red, it will be more of the same.

A libertarian solution is never going to work.  On a fiscal level, it's rule by oligarch, instead of government.  On a social level, it's only feasible in a world where religion can be set aside (maybe some day, but not now), and where your freedom doesn't imperil me and mine (which is the essence of the gun issue in cities).  Those are irreconcilable for now -- maybe forever in a complex nation like ours.  

I think we've elected trauma as our motivator, since neither side can accept the legitimacy of the other.  The GD-WWII cycle created group cohesion; it's the one case where we achieved it.  Even the ACW, with all the devastation and misery, left the adversaries in place and still in opposition.  Our sclerotic governmental structure is certainly part of it too.  But, so far, we're not making much progress, nor have we identified a viable alternative.  We can't be Canada; we can't be Sweden.

You just supported rule by oligarch. I assume you weren't paying attention or assume that you were unable able to figure that out?  I guess we'll get to see if the blue oligarchs are any better than the blue politicians as far as ruling blue America these days. I think you guys did a wonderful job screwing yourselves this time around.

Are oligarchs inevitable? Concentration of power, both administrative and economic, seem to go together. Big business demands big government as a corollary, as an enforcer of the terms of contract, as a provider of infrastructure that Big Business needs (the auto industry and the oil industry were not going to build the roads), and as a mitigator of the worst tendencies of Big Business.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-09-2020, 03:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: You just supported rule by oligarch. I assume you weren't paying attention or assume that you were unable able to figure that out?  I guess we'll get to see if the blue oligarchs are any better than the blue politicians as far as ruling blue America these days. I think you guys did a wonderful job screwing yourselves this time around.

You need a strong government to solve the crisis. I paid attention enough to know Trump wasn't going to solve the COVID or racist problems. He was thoroughly on the wrong side of the two dominant problems surfacing thus far in the crisis. You solve the problems. Government becomes less focused in subsequent turnings.

We'll see which party has messed itself up. The base is still loyal to the ultimate loser. The establishment is thoroughly discredited. The true conservatives have an uphill battle against either. We'll see how the Georgia senate seats go.

[David Horn]

(11-10-2020, 04:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(11-09-2020, 03:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: You just supported rule by oligarch. I assume you weren't paying attention or assume that you were unable able to figure that out?  I guess we'll get to see if the blue oligarchs are any better than the blue politicians as far as ruling blue America these days. I think you guys did a wonderful job screwing yourselves this time around.

You need a strong government to solve the crisis.  I paid attention enough to know Trump wasn't going to solve the COVID or racist problems.  He was thoroughly on the wrong side of the two dominant problems surfacing thus far in the crisis.  You solve the problems.  Government becomes less focused in subsequent turnings.

We'll see which party has messed itself up.  The base is still loyal to the ultimate loser.  The establishment is thoroughly discredited.  The true conservatives have an uphill battle against either.  We'll see how the Georgia senate seats go.

If anyone has a magic wand, now is the time to wave it.  Politics is broken, top to bottom.  A lot of it has to do with social media, but even that can't explain the massive disconnects between real people.  We've managed to move into corners, paint ourselves into them, and accuse each other of <insert the epithet suitable for the other side>.  A lot of it is actually justified, which makes it harder to fix.  Too much Kool-Aid and too many drinkers.

[pbrower2a]

(11-10-2020, 04:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(11-09-2020, 03:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: You just supported rule by oligarch. I assume you weren't paying attention or assume that you were unable able to figure that out?  I guess we'll get to see if the blue oligarchs are any better than the blue politicians as far as ruling blue America these days. I think you guys did a wonderful job screwing yourselves this time around.

You need a strong government to solve the crisis.  I paid attention enough to know Trump wasn't going to solve the COVID or racist problems.  He was thoroughly on the wrong side of the two dominant problems surfacing thus far in the crisis.  You solve the problems.  Government becomes less focused in subsequent turnings.

We'll see which party has messed itself up.  The base is still loyal to the ultimate loser.  The establishment is thoroughly discredited.  The true conservatives have an uphill battle against either.  We'll see how the Georgia senate seats go.

Weak, ineffective government creates an opening for the demagogue who claims that he alone can solve everything. That demagogue typically asserts that he needs extraordinary powers to force a change... perhaps in ways that people do not want change. It may be an amazing coincidence, but PBS is now showing a story on how Adolf Hitler came to power right now. Weimar Germany had a fatal flaw as a system; it simply excised the Kaiser. The Weimar Republic never fully filled the vacuum, but Hitler certainly did. The weak, democratic German government was never able to get any mitigation of reparations... but Hitler was certainly able to. Hitler was useful to many people willing to sell their souls for whatever they wanted.

Most telling was that people who should have known better, people who preferred intrigues to determine who is to hold power to democratic processes -- and that the judicial system broke down as Nazis corrupted the system and the formal police. The Stormtroopers could get away with all sorts of violence, and once they could get away with anything, "law and order" became nothing more than the will of the Fuehrer.

I suspect that this was made as a warning in America. After all, we aren't Weimar Germany, are we? We have a Constitution in place from 1789 and no heritage of despotism.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Nov-20 World View -- Facing military disaster, Armenia agrees to Russian peace deal with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Facing military disaster, Armenia agrees to Russian peace deal with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh
  
• Nagorno-Karabakh's standard generational pattern
  
• Joyous celebrations in Baku, Azerbaijan
  
• Furious rioting in Yerevan, Armenia
  
• Threat of Russia - Turkey clash
  
• The Khojaly Massacre, February 26, 1992
  
• The future of the Nagorno-Karabakh
  
• Ethiopia civil war threatens to destabilize horn of Africa
  

****
**** Facing military disaster, Armenia agrees to Russian peace deal with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh
****


Map of Azerbaijan and Armenia, showing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict region (BBC)

Armenia has agreed to a Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal with Azerbaijan,
mediated by Russia, rather than face a complete military debacle.
Azerbaijani military forces have achieved a string of victories in
capturing cities and villages around Nagorno-Karabakh. On Sunday,
Azerbaijani forces captured Shusha (Shushi), the region's
second-largest town, and were close to attacking the Nagorno-Karabakh
capital city Stepanakert, which is on the main road to Armenia.

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the deal "incredibly
painful both for both me and our people." He added, "The army said
that we had to stop, because there are problems for which there are no
solution, and the army was out of resources."

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said “This (ceasefire) agreement
has historic significance. This agreement constitutes Armenia’s
capitulation. This agreement puts an end to the years-long
occupation."

Vagram Pogosian, a spokesman for the Armenian government in
Nagorno-Karabakh, said "Unfortunately, we are forced to admit that a
series of failures still haunt us, and the city of Shushi is
completely out of our control. The enemy is on the outskirts of
Stepanakert.”

Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, "We will stand
alongside Azerbaijan. This is a great success, a victory for
Azerbaijan. Territories that were under occupation for 30 years are
being taken back."

This is the fourth mediated cease-fire agreement on the last three
months. The previous ones lasted only a day. There are two things
that make this one different. First, there is the lingering threat
the Azerbaijani military forces will continue on to Stepanakert and
take control of the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region. And second,
Russia is deploying its own military forces to separate the two sides
and prevent a resumption of fighting.

****
**** Nagorno-Karabakh's standard generational pattern
****

This is actually the next step in a standard generational pattern.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan, but which has a mostly
Armenian population which governs it. Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland
Karabakh") is also called Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and the Republic of
Artsakh by Armenia. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an
extremely bloody war broke out. Armenia invaded Azerbaijan and
defeated the Azeri defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in
hundreds of thousands of people displaced or killed.

The war ended in 1994 because of Russia's mediation, but since then
it's proceeded according to a standard generational pattern, with
periods of peace alternating with periods of low-level violence that
grow worse with each iteration. In typical situations, this process
continues until at least 58 years after the end of the war, when the
survivors of the war are no longer in power, and a new war breaks out.
In this case, a new full-scale war would not be anticipated until at
least 2052.

So it remains to be seen how long the new cease-fire will last. Maybe
it will last only a day like the last one. Or, maybe it will last a
couple of years like the cease-fire negotiated in 2016. But you can
be absolutely certain that it will not last.

****
**** Joyous celebrations in Baku, Azerbaijan
****

Al-Jazeera is showing video of the streets of Azerbaijan's capital
city Baku filled with overjoyed people, dancing, singing, and shouting
(without, incidentally, much sign of masks or social distancing).

Joyous, grinning young girls were launghinbly describing how they will
now return to their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh, where their parents
were displaced in 1994. They chuckled as they said that it won't be
long before all of Nagorno-Karabakh is returned to Azerbaijan, so that
they can all return to all of their former homes.

One 52-year-old Azeri is quoted as saying complained that the
government agreed to the cease-fire. "We were about to gain the whole
of Nagorno-Karabakh back. The agreement is very vague I don’t trust
Armenia and I don’t trust Russia even more.”

****
**** Furious rioting in Yerevan, Armenia
****

The video from Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia was considerably
grimmer. Furious citizens are demanding the resignation of Armenia's
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his entire government, saying that
he betrayed the Armenian people, and asking why Pashinyan waited until
now to capitulate, after 1,300 Armenian soldiers have already been
killed in the fighting.

Rioting broke out in Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia, where
crowds stormed and ransacked government buildings.

****
**** Threat of Russia - Turkey clash
****

As "historic" as the cease-fire agreement is, there are a number of
issues remaining.

Russia is claiming to be the kingmaker that brought about the deal,
but Turkey was not part of the deal. Turkey was heavily committed to
backing Azerbaijan in the fighting, and have even provided hundreds of
Syrian jihadists to fight alongside the Azerbaijani forces, according
to a number of reports, paying the jihadists pay ranging from $1,200
to $2,000 per month.

Russia and Turkey are historic enemies that have fought massive wars
against each other in previous centuries, and are already supporting
opposing sides in conflicts in Syria and Libya. Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan would like to restore the former glory of the
ancient Ottoman Empire, and being shut out of the Nagorno-Karabakh
cease-fire deal in favor of Russia is contrary to those glorious
plans.

According to some reports, the Russians did not want to commit Russian
troops to enforce the ceasefire, but felt that they had to because if
the fighting continued, it was likely that Russia and Turkey would
soon be at war. Russia is supposed to be an ally of Armenia, and has
a military base in Armenia, so an increase in fighting could force
Russia to defend Armenia from the Turks.

Russian forces are scheduled to remain for at least five years.
Almost 2,000 servicemen, 90 armured personnel carriers, and 380
vehicles and pieces of other hardware were being deployed. Russian
media said 20 military planes had taken off for the region and had
started arriving in Armenia en route to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia says that there had been no agreement on deploying any Turkish
peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, but the Turkish military will help
staff a joint monitoring center with Russian forces.

****
**** The Khojaly Massacre, February 26, 1992
****

According to Azerbaijan, on February 26, 1992, 613 Azeri civilians
were massacred by Armenian soldiers in the town of Khojaly in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Some 487 people, including 76 children, were
critically injured. According to Azerbaijan, this was genocide.

According to Armenia, Khojaly had been used as an Azeri firebase from
which to use multi-rocket launches on residential areas of
Stepanakert, purposely killing as many Armenian civilians as possible.
Everyone knew that an Armenian military attack on Khojaly was coming,
but according to Armenia, the Azeri military purposely blocked
civilians from leaving Khojaly, so that the attack would result in a
massacre of civilians, which they would call a genocide.

Whichever side is telling the truth, it remains clear that the Azeri
people are demanding revenge for the Khojaly massacre.

****
**** The future of the Nagorno-Karabakh
****

This is a standard generational pattern, the next step in a string of
alternating periods of war and ceasefire. The last ceasefires each
lasted one day, Russia hopes this one will last at least five years.

As is always the case, it will be the people, rather than the
politicians, who will decide how long the ceasefire will last.

The people of Azerbaijan, as far as I can tell, want the fighting to
resume and continue. They want revenge for the Khojaly Massacre, they
want to recapture the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh and drive out all the
Armenians, and those whose parents were displaced in the 1991-94 war
are demanding to return to those homes.

All of these steps are inevitable, if not right away then in
the next few years, and the result will be genocide and ethnic
cleansing of Armenians.

****
**** Ethiopia civil war threatens to destabilize horn of Africa
****

This is a completely separate subject, for those who are interested in
more than the subject of voter fraud in Pennsylvania. I've written
several times in the past about the ethnic situation in Ethiopia, but
it's been peaceful for a couple of years, and now new clashes are
creating a refugee crisis that can threaten the entire horn of Africa.

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who comes from the Oromo tribe,
the largest Ethiopia ethnic group, has ordered hundreds of air strikes
and an army offensive against the Tigray minority in northern
Ethiopia. Already 2,500 Ethiopians have fled into Sudan, and the fear
is that a wider civil war would bring hundreds of thousands of
refugees into Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Kenya. Even worse, the
border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea may be renewed The African
Union called for a ceasefire, but we know how those things go.

I've written about the civil war between the Tigrays and the Oromos
several times in the past, and how Abiy Ahmed got a Nobel "Peace"
Price by ending the civil war. But, as in the case of
Nagorno-Karabakh, there is a generational pattern that's always
followed, with alternating periods of peace and conflict, with the
conflict worsening with each iteration. I'm still spending a lot of
time on my Vietnam book, but I'll try to write something soon to bring
the Ethiopian civil war up to day.

Sources:

• Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia sign Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal (BBC, 9-Nov-2020)
  
• Latest Cease-Fire In Nagorno-Karabakh Leaves Armenians Feeling Betrayed By Government (NPR, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Russian peacekeepers deploy to Nagorno-Karabakh after ceasefire deal (Reuters, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Will a Russian-Brokered Deal End the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict? (Foreign Policy, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to end weeks of fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh (ArabNews, AFP, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Russian peacekeepers go to Nagorno-Karabakh to bolster truce (AP, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Angry Mob Assaults Armenian Lawmaker, Threatens RFE/RL Bureau Following Nagorno-Karabakh Truce (RFERL, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Nagorno-Karabakh / Deployment of Turkish peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh was never discussed (Public Radio Of Armenia, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Nagorno-Karabakh leader concedes military defeat: Blames Middle Eastern mercenaries, Covid-19 outbreak, fatigue & Turkish drones (Russia Today, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to end fight in Nagorno-Karabakh (AP, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• France's Macron says Syrian jihadists active in Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict (Radio France International, 1-Oct-2020)
  
• Are Syrian Mercenaries Helping Azerbaijan Fight For Nagorno-Karabakh? (RFERL, 15-Oct-2020)
  
• Horrors of Khojaly massacre still hamper peace in Azeri-Armenian conflict (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 10-Nov-2020)
  
• Nagorno-Karabakh / The Truth About Khojaly (Massis Post, Armenia, 1-Mar-2020)
  
• Armenia / Azerbaijan / Syria / Russia / Erdogan's jihadist army (Dogrusu, Turkish language(10/2020):
  
• Ethiopia's Tigray conflict worsens, refugees flee to Sudan (Reuters, 10-Nov-2020)

Related Articles - Nagorno-Karabakh:

• Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan (11-Oct-2020)
  
  
• Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh (28-Sep-2020)
  
  
• Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  

Related Articles-Ethiopia:

• In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea (06-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability (15-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests and state of emergency (17-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmediat escapes grenade attack at massive rally (24-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Artsakh, Syria,
Shusha, Shushi, Stepanakert,
Nikol Pashinyan, Ilham Aliyev, Vagram Pogosian,
Mevlut Cavusoglu, Khojaly Massacre

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[pbrower2a]

John Xenakis --

it's easy for us Americans to forget, obsessed as we are about our own election involving an incumbent President who is a severe change in direction from all that we have known in the past, that there is far more than our own distress. A Soviet-era border arrangement establishing a heavily-Armenian exclave in the form of an "autonomous republic" within another "Soviet Socialist Republic" has failed after about a century. Commies thought they had the definitive solution to everything, and one of the things that they got wrong was nationalism. Marxism-Leninism would make "bourgeois nationalism" irrelevant as well as criminal because such was "bourgeois". Now that at the least the Marxist-Leninist variant of socialism is defunct in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, nothing stops 'bourgeois nationalism' from reappearing.

Nobody will get the perfect arrangement for anyone. Perfect deals do not exist; if they did they would already have been in place long ago.

[David Horn]

John,
If you need something to worry about, consider the highly likely denial of transition assistance to the Biden team with an international event coming soon after his Presidency begins. Trump's good with that. How about you?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Nov-2020 World View: Goldman Sachs predicts major market surges in 2021 and 2022

Goldman Sachs strategists are predicting huge stock increases
each of the next two years.

The S&P closed on Tuesday at 3545. Goldman is increasing its year-end
target to 3700 by end of 2020, 4300 by the end of 2021, and 4600 by
the end of 2022.

Goldman gives two reasons: the expected success of virus vaccines, and
the expectation of a divided Congress (preventing Biden from
implementing a lot of loony left policies).

This is an unbelievably dangerous prediction -- i.e., dangerous for
you.

Apparently the Goldman Sachs strategists, led by David Kostin, are not
bothered by the current level of the price/earnings ratio. The P/E
ratio has a historical average of around 14, and has been at
astronomically high levels in the 20-25 range for almost a decade,
indicating a large stock market bubble. The current S&P 500 P/E ratio
value is 39.81, which is so ridiculously high, there are no words to
describe it. (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields)

But Kostin says stock prices are going to go even much, much higher
in the next two years, presumably pushing the P/E ratio up to 50 or
60.

Well, don't worry about that. Kostin and his team of "experts" has
an explanation:

Quote: "When thinking about the potential resolution of
today’s record valuation dispersion, investors often recall the
unwind of the tech bubble, which was characterized by a two-year
bear market and large negative absolute returns of the previous
market leaders. More often than not, however, value rallies tend
to occur in rising markets during which high valuation stocks also
rise but are outpaced by the lowest valuation firms. This ‘catch
up’ dynamic is what we expect will take place in coming months as
a vaccine is approved and distributed."

Hahahahahaha. This is all moronic garbage from someone who has no
clue what he's talking about. He's apparently dismissing the high P/E
ratio as no problem because of "the potential resolution of today’s
record valuation dispersion," by which I believe that he means: Don't
worry about high valuations, since some are low and some are high, so
it will all be resolved. And don't tell me that these are experts and
I'm not, because I used to write about jackasses like this in the
2000s decade, and they were too dumb to see the housing bubble and the
credit collapse. These people are really stupid, but they get paid a
lot of money to issue stupid opinions that people want to hear.

I'll repeat what I've said many times in the past: The size of the
global debt bubble continues to grow uncontrollably. We don't know
when that bubble will burst, but we can say for certain that it will
burst when everyone least expects it, and cause a massive
international financial crisis, including a stock market crash, which
means that a lot of people will lose their life savings overnight.
"If something can't go on forever, then it won't."

Here are some Goldman Sachs graphs:






-- Goldman Sachs has just boosted its S&P 500 target. Here’s why
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldma...1605095051
(Market Watch, 11-Nov-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Nov-2020 World View: A harsh new turning point in Hong Kong

Hong Kong's pro-democracy legislators have resigned en masse
from Hong Kong's Legislative Council (LegCo), after China took
a major new step to bring Hong Kong under full dictatorial control,
making the Legislative Council pretty much worthless and irrelevant.

On Wednesday, China disqualified four "pro-democracy activists" from
Hong Kong's Legislative Council (LegCo), as the immediate consequence
of imposing a new law disqualifying anyone supporting anything from a
list of "unpatriotic" views. This prompted the en masse
resignation of the 15 remaining pro-democracy legislators.

The law applies to anyone who supports independence, refuses to
recognise Beijing’s sovereignty over Hong Kong, seeks help from
"foreign countries or foreign forces to interfere in the affairs of
the region" or commits "other acts that endanger national security."

Pro-Beijing lawmaker Regina Ip explained why the new law, disqualifying
pro-democracy lawmakers, was in reality a benefit to democracy
in Hong Kong:

Quote: "They cannot be just democrats in name. They have to
not only embrace true democratic values in the sense of respecting
the rule of law and the rights of other people with whom they
disagree, they also have to respect the sovereignty, security of
our country.

They have been opposing everything that has to do with the nation,
whether it is national security, national education, national
anthem, co-location... anything to do with integration with the
nation. Hong Kong being part of China, this sort of position is
not viable."

One of the "unpatriotic" acts is filibustering, according to another
pro-Beijing lawmaker Martin Liao:

Quote: "We've been wasting a lot of time dealing with
filibustering by the pan-dems. If the atmosphere in Legco can be
more quiet, I think the establishment parties and members can
really monitor, look into the government policy, public policy and
legislation a lot more carefully and more critical about
it."

It's been obvious for years that the "One Country, Two Systems" concept
would not last. China's National Security Law, passed in
June of last year, pretty much killed it off, and the new
disqualification law is just beating on a dead body.

This has been an objective of Xi Jinping rose to power in 2011. In
2013, the CCP issued "Document Number 9" which listed evil "anti-China
forces," such as democracy, human rights, civil society,
neoliberalism, and a free press. In particular, the CCP considers
democracy to be not a method of government, but a Western ideology
designed to destroy Chinese Communism. At the time the document was
issued, it was believed that Xi Jinping wanted it particularly to be
used to target Hong Kong, and indeed it has.

The following is speculative, based on the timing of Wednesday's
actions, one week after the American election. I can't predict
what the CCP is going to do, except that I know that they do
one stupid thing after another, thanks to their dictatorship which
forbids criticism, even of the stupidest decisions. Some historical
examples are Mao's Great Leap Forward, which needlessly killed 50
million innocent Chinese and destroyed China's economy for decades,
and the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre disaster.

So now we speculate on the timing of the next major stupid thing that
the CCP will do. We know that the CCP plans a military invasion of
Taiwan, because they've said so many times. We know that for years,
they were trying to charm the Taiwanese by telling them they would get
the same wonderful "One Country, Two Systems" deal as in Hong Kong.
That whole charm offensive is now dead, and in fact is backfiring,
since the Taiwanese are watching Hong Kong and know that China has the
same plans for Taiwan.

We can be certain that China plans an invasion of Taiwan, because
they've said so, and we can speculate on the timing. The new Hong
Kong crackdown means that there is no longer any pretense. The
speculation is that the harsh Hong Kong crackdown is a signal that the
timing of the Taiwan invasion is imminent. If it's not imminent, then
the invasion still has to occur sometime, and the CCP thugs know that
they can't wait forever.


John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

***
*** Sources:
***

-- Hong Kong opposition lawmakers all quit after four members ousted
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/n...ition-oust
(Guardian, London, 11-Nov-2020)

-- Only patriots will govern Hong Kong, says Beijing
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k...angeable=0
(Radio Television Hong Kong, RTHK, 11-Nov-2020)

-- Hong Kong / Pan-dems have only themselves to blame: Regina Ip
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k...htm (Radio
Television Hong Kong, RTHK, 11-Nov-2020)

-- China has completed its takeover of Hong Kong’s legislature
https://qz.com/1931705/china-exerts-its-...e-council/
(Quartz, 11-Nov-2020)

-- Document Number 9: A ChinaFile Translation
https://www.chinafile.com/document-9-chi...ChinaFile,
22-Apr-2013)

-- Hong Kong gov’t ousts four democratically-elected lawmakers from
legislature
https://hongkongfp.com/2020/11/11/breaki...gislature/
(HongKongFP, 11-Nov-2020)

-- Hong Kong: Snitch hotline gets more than 1,000 calls
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-chin...-Nov-2020)

***
*** Related articles
***

** 26-Oct-19 World View -- Mike Pence harshly criticizes China as US bans Chinese surveillance equipment
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191026


** 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190127

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Nov-2020 World View: $6 million

(11-11-2020, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote: > John, If you need something to worry about, consider the highly
> likely denial of transition assistance to the Biden team with an
> international event coming soon after his Presidency begins.
> Trump's good with that. How about you?

Really? Is that what I should worry about? The $6 million that Biden
wants from Trump?

There are easy solutions for Biden. Hunter and Joe have already
gotten a billion dollars from China in influence peddling. So he
could just ask his Beijing contact for another $6 million in return
for future favors. He could do the same with his contacts in Moscow
and Kiev. Joe and Hunter have plenty of opportunities to pick up $6
million for his "transition team," and a lot more for his other
cronies. So, problem solved!

(Oh wait! Did I just say something racist, sexist, homophobic or
otherwise deplorable? Omigod!)

[David Horn]

(11-11-2020, 12:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 11-Nov-2020 World View: $6 million

(11-11-2020, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote: John, If you need something to worry about, consider the highly likely denial of transition assistance to the Biden team with an international event coming soon after his Presidency begins. Trump's good with that. How about you?

Really?  Is that what I should worry about?  The $6 million that Biden wants from Trump?

There are easy solutions for Biden.  Hunter and Joe have already gotten a billion dollars from China in influence peddling.  So he could just ask his Beijing contact for another $6 million in return for future favors.  He could do the same with his contacts in Moscow and Kiev.  Joe and Hunter have plenty of opportunities to pick up $6 million for his "transition team," and a lot more for his other cronies.  So, problem solved!

Sleazy John, but ignoring the obvious conspiracy nonsense, let's actually talk about the real issues. For someone who prides himself on international savvy, you should be ashamed of this comment.  The money is the least of the worries.  What they need are in-briefs, parallel briefing to the President's Daily Brief included, access to SCIFs, and advance background checking on future members of administration.  We're the world's #1 superpower, and not having an administration ready to go at all times is, frankly, criminal. If you doubt it, read the After Action Report on 9/11.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Nov-2020 World View: Sleazy Democrats

(11-11-2020, 01:43 PM)David Horn Wrote: > Sleazy John, but ignoring the obvious conspiracy nonsense, let's
> actually talk about the real issues. For someone who prides
> himself on international savvy, you should be ashamed of this
> comment. The money is the least of the worries. What they need
> are in-briefs, parallel briefing to the President's Daily Brief
> included, access to SCIFs, and advance background checking on
> future members of administration. We're the world's #1
> superpower, and not having an administration ready to go at all
> times is, frankly, criminal. If you doubt it, read the After
> Action Report on 9/11.

Fuck you. There are 71 million people, including a growing number of
blacks and latinos, who voted for Trump who overwhelmingly believe
that the Democrats flooded the system with random blank ballots
purposely in order to create a huge mess so that they could use the
chaos to rig the election, and that they did rig the election. Those
71 million people are absolutely furious, and they're not going to be
intimidated by words like "racist" or "sleazy," when they know full
well that the people who are racist and sleazy are the Democrats.
(Republicans are particularly pleased that six Republican women
flipped House seats from the sleazy Democrats.)

The Democrats created a mess, and now, as usual, it falls to the
Republicans to clean up the Democrats' huge mess. Having to clean up
the Democrats' mess is going to lengthen the transition period.
That's why the transition is being delayed.

Trump is supporting those 71 million people by using the courts to
investigate a growing number of instances of voting fraud in multiple
states. Trump and the Republicans are taking the time to investigate
all of those, in order to restore the integrity of the country's
voting system. You should be happy about that because, as a proud
American, you should want the integrity of the country's voting system
to be preserved, so that election results will always be trusted.
(That last sentence is a joke because I know that, as a Democrat, you
don't give a shit about the integrity of the country's voting system.
You would be perfectly happy with a Stalinist voting system, as long
as a Democrat wins.)

The charges about Hunter and Joe Biden may be sleazy, but they're not
conspiracy theories like the four years of sleazy phony Russia
accusations by Democrat shithead assholes like Adam Schiff and Nanci
Pelosi. The Biden-China charges are completely true, and they were
proven well beyond a reasonable doubt during the last month before the
election, when a mountain of forensic evidence became available. If
those 71 million Trump supporters suspect that the evidence is being
shoved under the rug, they're going to be even more furious.

You don't even have standing to even comment on the Hunter Biden
charges because you know absolutely nothing about them. How can you
call something sleazy if you know nothing about it? All you know is
what you hear on CNN, and CNN knows that its listeners have an average
IQ of 50, so they'll believe anything that CNN tells them.

My favorite example is the antifa-blm riots. They went on for months,
burning down one city after another, and people like you didn't even
know they were going on, because CNN kept that information from you.
The Democratic National Convention didn't utter a word about the riots
all week, even though they were ongoing in multiple cities at the same
time.

There's a CNN video clip that Fox News has played a number of times to
get hilarity. It's a CNN report from Portsmouth. The CNN reporter (I
think it was Ali Velshi) is standing there with a microphone going on
at length about how there are quiet, peaceful protests going on. But
anyone watching can see about 1/4 mile behind Velshi there are
multiple businesses being burned down, and that the flames appear to
stretch for a mile or two. I don't know if CNN later said anything to
listeners about the fires, but they didn't have to because they know
that their listeners have an average iq of 50, and probably think that
the fires are orange flags being waved by peaceful protesters.

The Stalinist media kept all news about the Biden charge away from
Democrats, in order to keep them dumb and stupid. Remember how
twitter shut down the NY Post twitter feed completely? Why did they
do that? Because they wanted to keep Democrats dumb and stupid.

The following is a recent article on the Biden influence peddling
chargers:

‘Plausible deniability’: Tony Bobulinski says Joe Biden knew about
Hunter Biden’s China deal pursuits
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/...l-pursuits

Read it or not. I don't care. It doesn't make any difference anyway
since you don't give a shit about the criminality of the Bidens.

One more thing. I used to talk about the vitriolic hatred that you
Democrats had for the 60 million tea partiers, which turned into
vitriolic hatred for 63 million Trump supporters. Well, now it's 71
million furious Trump supporters. I've heard reports that there are
plans to organize those 71 million people into a new political
movement next year, with Trump leading the way. That should please
you, because you'll have so much more to hate.

P.S.: Please, don't have hurt feelings. I'm sure your iq is higher
than 50. I was referring to the AVERAGE Democrat.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-11-2020, 04:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(11-11-2020, 01:43 PM)David Horn Wrote: Sleazy John, but ignoring the obvious conspiracy nonsense, let's actually talk about the real issues. For someone who prides himself on international savvy, you should be ashamed of this comment.  The money is the least of the worries.  What they need are in-briefs, parallel briefing to the President's Daily Brief included, access to SCIFs, and advance background checking on future members of administration.  We're the world's #1 superpower, and not having an administration ready to go at all times is, frankly, criminal. If you doubt it, read the After Action Report on 9/11.

(Expletive Deleted)

As rational response as I have come to expect from you.

(11-11-2020, 04:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The Democrats created a mess, and now, as usual, it falls to the Republicans to clean up the Democrats' huge mess.  Having to clean up the Democrats' mess is going to lengthen the transition period.  That's why the transition is being delayed.

I see it as very much the reverse.  Republicans are fond of Voodoo Economics, stimulating in good times and bad.  This gives them a couple of good terms, but results in the inevitable collapse.  It came in the form of "It's the economy stupid" and the Great Recession.  This was likely the primary reason for the unravelling see saw, a constant switch between parties, as you need a responsible party to straighten out the mess before you make the same old mistake again.

(11-11-2020, 04:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: One more thing.  I used to talk about the vitriolic hatred that you Democrats had for the 60 million tea partiers, which turned into vitriolic hatred for 63 million Trump supporters.  Well, now it's 71 million furious Trump supporters.  I've heard reports that there are
plans to organize those 71 million people into a new political movement next year, with Trump leading the way.  That should please you, because you'll have so much more to hate.

With an administration of con men and the Attorney General of New York laying in wait, I am curious as to whether Trump will go the pardon and flee the country route, or the keep it going with a media show route.  The Republicans as a whole are keeping their obstructionist ways going.  Keeping a loser no longer in chief holding their base hostage, it would remove a challenge to the Democrats.  We will see.  

I do see the possibility that Biden will not be the 46th president.  Trump could resign and have Pence pardon him to avoid the self pardon admission of guilt.

I didn’t hate the Tea Party.  The Republican for a while were ahead of the Democrats in rejecting their establishment.  They started out moving in the right direction.  Unfortunately, they fell in love sequentially with Palin then Trump.  In falling in love with the biggest alligator in the swamp, they reunited with the elites and establishment.  These have so discredited themselves that I do not fear them that much.  I almost hope Trump manages to keep the Republican base on an obsolete and discredited world view.

We will see if the base comes out on top of the Republican heap.  I would anticipate that the old values collapse in the crisis turning.  They always have.  Going with loyalty to Trump seems a step in that direction.

[pbrower2a]

(11-11-2020, 12:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 11-Nov-2020 World View: $6 million

(11-11-2020, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote: >   John, If you need something to worry about, consider the highly
>   likely denial of transition assistance to the Biden team with an
>   international event coming soon after his Presidency begins.
>   Trump's good with that. How about you?

Really?  Is that what I should worry about?  The $6 million that Biden
wants from Trump?

There are easy solutions for Biden.  Hunter and Joe have already
gotten a billion dollars from China in influence peddling.  So he
could just ask his Beijing contact for another $6 million in return
for future favors.  He could do the same with his contacts in Moscow
and Kiev.  Joe and Hunter have plenty of opportunities to pick up $6
million for his "transition team," and a lot more for his other
cronies.  So, problem solved!

(Oh wait!  Did I just say something racist, sexist, homophobic or
otherwise deplorable?  Omigod!)

Hamstringing the incoming Administration is a horrible idea. An administration getting help from a foreign power in achieving its domestic ends out of its own design is unconscionable. An administration requiring its successor to seek non-government assistance from special interests or, worse, from foreign powers, is unthinkable. 

Trump breaks the rules... badly. That is his norm.

[David Horn]

(11-11-2020, 04:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 11-Nov-2020 World View: Sleazy Democrats

(11-11-2020, 01:43 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   Sleazy John, but ignoring the obvious conspiracy nonsense, let's
>   actually talk about the real issues. For someone who prides
>   himself on international savvy, you should be ashamed of this
>   comment.  The money is the least of the worries.  What they need
>   are in-briefs, parallel briefing to the President's Daily Brief
>   included, access to SCIFs, and advance background checking on
>   future members of administration.  We're the world's #1
>   superpower, and not having an administration ready to go at all
>   times is, frankly, criminal. If you doubt it, read the After
>   Action Report on 9/11.

Fuck you.  There are 71 million people, including a growing number of
blacks and latinos, who voted for Trump who overwhelmingly believe
that the Democrats flooded the system with random blank ballots
purposely in order to create a huge mess so that they could use the
chaos to rig the election, and that they did rig the election.  Those
71 million people are absolutely furious, and they're not going to be
intimidated by words like "racist" or "sleazy," when they know full
well that the people who are racist and sleazy are the Democrats.
(Republicans are particularly pleased that six Republican women
flipped House seats from the sleazy Democrats.) ...

John, you need to get back on your meds.  I'm serious.  If you actually believe any of this, then I'm really worried.

[pbrower2a]

As the late-coming votes come in, Joe Biden has won a percentage of the popular vote higher than that of Ronald Reagan in 1980. That percentage is likely to get higher as the heaviest numbers of outstanding votes are either in states like California, New Jersey, and New York. Even in such a state as Louisiana or Ohio that Trump won the remaining votes still not counted are heavily absentee ballots from urban areas that will go strongly D. Biden has surpassed any challenger to an incumbent President in percentage of the vote since FDR trounced Herbert Hoover in 1932.

(OK, the margin isn't all that impressive, but still it is decisive).

We are still in for some tough times. We are eleven years away from the last Big Bad Crash, and we did have a short-lived mini-crash early this year (and it had nothing to do with COVID-19. This is still a Crisis Era, and the extreme interstate polarization of the vote strongly indicates that America is nowhere near achieving any political consensus.

John, we have never had a sleazier administration than the Trump administration. You are of course free to abhor any prior administration, including that of Barack Obama for having an agenda different from your dream. Trump corruption, incompetence, and cruelty would make a liberal administration operating similarly abominable and deserving of defeat. Trump makes Obama look like a conservative on foreign policy. Remember: fascists are far more different from genuine conservatives than are liberals.

Ordinarily it is the politician on the Right who better convinces us of his devout religiosity, his conservative family life, and his respect for the troops current (active duty) or past (veterans). This time it was Joe Biden. Joe Biden has a long record of public service and knows how to get things done in elected office, which matters far more than does business acumen. (Elected office and executive or ownership roles in private business are very different. A tycoon can fire a mailroom clerk, but the President cannot fire a letter carrier). The CEO can fire the Director of Marketing, but the President cannot fire an elected Senator or Representative or a federal judge. Trump failed to recognize this. The last President to have no record of elected office before Trump, Dwight Eisenhower, far better knew this than did Trump.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Nov-2020 World View: 71 million Trump supporters

(11-11-2020, 04:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Fuck you. There are 71 million people, including a growing number of
> blacks and latinos, who voted for Trump who overwhelmingly believe
> that the Democrats flooded the system with random blank ballots
> purposely in order to create a huge mess so that they could use the
> chaos to rig the election, and that they did rig the election. Those
> 71 million people are absolutely furious, and they're not going to be
> intimidated by words like "racist" or "sleazy," when they know full
> well that the people who are racist and sleazy are the Democrats.
> (Republicans are particularly pleased that six Republican women
> flipped House seats from the sleazy Democrats.) ...

(11-12-2020, 09:53 AM)David Horn Wrote: > John, you need to get back on your meds. I'm serious. If you
> actually believe any of this, then I'm really worried.

This is so totally bizarre, I barely know how to respond. I thought
that you might scream faux outrage over the "Fuck you" remark, even
though that was a perfectly reasonable and appropriate thing for me to
say, in view of the totally insulting, offensive and condescending
message of yours that I was responding to.

And now you're saying that you're "really worried"? Lol. You really
are completely full of crap, aren't you.

The point is that the rest of the paragraph that you're quoting is
completely factual. Reading through it now, I might change the phrase
"when they know full well" to "when they very strongly believe," but
the paragraph is completely correct.

So you saying that I must be off my meds makes me "really worried"
about you -- and worried about all Democrats, who are so dumb and
stupid that they have no idea what's going on. This was already
obvious when there were antifa-blm riots burning down Democrat-run
cities across the country, and Democrats like you had no clue they
were going on, and not a word was said about them at the Democratic
National Convention. And of course you know nothing about the large
mass of forensic evidence about Hunter-Joe Bidens criminality. What's
amazing to me is not that you disagree with it -- that's perfectly
normal -- but that you know nothing about it, as if there's a hole in
your brain. And I've said the same thing about Butler. Yes, I'm
"really worried" about you.

I'm not going to try to explain to you everything in the paragraph you
quoted, for several reasons. First, it would take too long. Second,
you would just insult me, and you would say something else stupid,
similar to your "off your meds" remark. Third, you don't give a shit
whether that paragraph is factually correct, since you and other
Democrats simply reject all facts that are inconvenient. And fourth,
I don't give a shit whether you believe that it's factually correct or
not. Believe whatever the hell you want, and save your offensive,
condescening insults for someone else.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Nov-2020 World View: Hamstringing Biden

(11-11-2020, 09:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Hamstringing the incoming Administration is a horrible idea. An
> administration getting help from a foreign power in achieving its
> domestic ends out of its own design is unconscionable. An
> administration requiring its successor to seek non-government
> assistance from special interests or, worse, from foreign powers,
> is unthinkable.

"Hamstringing"? Don't you mean that it's racist, sexist and
homophobic? This is the usual crap that Democrats to use to
intimidate tea partiers and Trump supporters from asserting their
rights, in this case the investigation of the growing instances of
voting irregularities during the election. However, what I'm telling
you is that I've heard one analyst after another make it clear that
there is a groundswell of furious activism growing among the 71
million tea partiers and Trump supporters, and your cheap intimidation
tricks aren't going to work nearly as well.

As a proud American, you should be applauding the investigations,
because they'll establish the validity of America's voting system, and
prove that they we aren't just Stalinists. You should be thrilled
that the investigations provide the opportunity to prove to everyone
that Biden's election was legitimate. I'm sure you'll agree that
stopping the investigations is a "horrible idea." If it's stopped
early, then the 71 million tea partiers and Trump supporters will be
absolutely convinced once and for all that it was rigged. That would
be terrible for Biden. What you call "hamstringing" is the best thing
for Biden. Once it's over, he can brag about it every day.

But still, your post is nonsensical on several additional levels
requiring a response.

First off, we now know that, along with Hunter, Joe Biden is
completely compromised with the governments of China, Russia and
Ukraine. This is going to be problematical in all intelligence
briefings, since it may be a security breach to reveal top secret
information to Biden.

The second problem is that CIA intelligence briefings won't do Biden
officials any good, if they don't have the solid information background
that lets them understand what they hearing, and I've seen no
evidence that anyone in the Democratic party has a clue what's going
on in the world.

It's not just Democrats. I learned in 2007 that the "experts" in
Washington are unbelievably stupid about the Mideast.

** Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...m#e070114b


What I learned was that I knew more about the Mideast than the
Washington "experts." Now, 13 years later, having written thousands
of articles and several books, I'm pretty sure that I know more about
what's going on in the entire world better than any of the Washington
"experts." This becomes obvious to me almost any time I see one on
tv.

When Obama came into office, he knew absolutely nothing, and did one
stupid thing after another. His entire foreign policy was based on
only one rule -- do the opposite of what Bush did. Over the next
eight years, it was obvious that he learned nothing, as his former
defense secretary Robert Gates suggested in his memoir.

I'm still completely appalled that Obama chose John Kerry as Secretary
of State. Not only is Kerry incredibly stupid, he also hates the
military and has repeatedly said so, he thinks that soldiers are
stupid (even though they're a lot smarter than he is), and his
selection was a big thumb in the eye of every American soldier and
veteran. But this is what we expect from Obama, and Democrats in
general.

I'm reminded of an article I wrote last year about Chris Murphy:

*** 23-Oct-2019 World View: The stupidest person in Congress - Chris Murphy
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...065#p48065

I wrote that after watching a speech by Murphy broadcast on
al-Jazeera. Murphy is the leading Democratic foreign policy "expert"
in Congress, and his ignorance and stupidity were breathtaking, at AOC
levels. Al-Jazeera simply broadcast the speech with no comment,
presumably because they wanted to show their Arab audiences how stupid
the Americans are.

So maybe there was someone in the Obama administration (after Gates)
who had some clue what was going on in the world, but I never saw it,
and the choice of the idiot Kerry indicates to me that none exists.

When Trump began running, I was extremely contemptuous of Trump's
foreign policy knowledge, and I mocked him by suggesting that he knew
nothing except the locations of his golf courses. But then he did
something completely unexpected -- he hired Steve Bannon, one of the
country's leading and most knowledgeable military historian, and also
an expert on Generational Dynamics. By the time Trump took office, he
had been educated by Bannon, and he was already extremely
knowledgeable about foreign policy, and was able to hit the ground
running. But that wasn't because of some worthless transitioning
briefing from Obama, but instead was because he had already been doing
the hard work attending briefings by Bannon and others for over a
year.

It was this deep knowledge that made it possible for Trump to
impressively manage the situations in North Korea, China and the
Mideast, and mediate three peace agreements in the Mideast, as well as
one in the Balkans. In the case of China, Trump was able to reverse
three decades of appeasement for all kinds of things, including
intellectual property theft. Responding to your statement, what's
"unconscionable" is that Biden's relationship with China is completely
compromised, and he may simply let China get away with everything
again.

It's worth repeating that Trump hit the ground running, but not
because of a couple of days of Obama intelligence briefings. It was
because of over a year of hard work and serious study with Bannon, not
a year hiding in his basement.

During Trump's 2016 campaign, he was out campaigning and attending all
sorts of briefings, learning everything he needed to know to be an
effective president.

During Biden's 2020 campaign, he hid out in his basement all year,
learning nothing, part of a Democrat party that purposely censors
any news that the Democrats don't like. Biden is abysmally incompetent
and unprepared for the presidency. A couple of days of briefings
won't change that. Biden is simply a dolt. Missing the briefings
won't be "hamstringing" Biden. Biden is already hamstrung.

We may see one consequence if the Pfizer rollout succeeds. Democrats
are desperately looking for a way to stop that, since it will make
Biden look like a pathetic idiot, who has no plan except "masks and
lockdowns." Pfizer is not likely to agree to any slowdown. I know
someone at Pfizer, and he's told me that the company has shut down
almost every other project, in order to invest all resources on the
virus vaccine. In other words, they've bet the entire company on the
vaccine, and they're not about to stop now, just as they're
approaching their big payday.

So this brings us back to these transition briefings. Biden
administration officials are, as far as I can tell, completely
ignorant about the world and foreign policy, so the briefings would be
harmless, but probably otherwise useless, since they wouldn't even
understand them. Since they'd be harmless, it probably would be a
good idea for the Trump administration to provide them.

If Biden REALLY wants to use this time intelligently so he won't be
hamstrung, he could start right now by hiring someone with the stature
of Steve Bannon to educate him. Or he could arrange for himself and
his staff to attend zoom briefings put on by foreign policy experts at
various think tanks and universities. The only problem with that is
that he would select only people presenting left wing nonsense, but
it's better than nothing, and nothing is what he currently knows,
after he's hidden in his basement for a year.

Another option is that he could take is to hire me to give a zoom
briefing. Since I know more about what's going on in countries around
the world than the "experts" in Washington, I could provide more
intelligent and accurate information than the left-wing stuff his
advisors will give him. I could also ask "Navigator," a military
history expert in my forum, to help out with the briefing. That would
be one of the best choices that Biden would make. I'll look forward
to hearing from him.

(11-12-2020, 04:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > John, we have never had a sleazier administration than the Trump
> administration.

You're a complete idiot. Biden is already sleazier.

‘Plausible deniability’: Tony Bobulinski says Joe Biden knew about
Hunter Biden’s China deal pursuits
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/...l-pursuits