Generational Dynamics World View

[pbrower2a]

This is very bad for the leadership of the PRC. Collapse of a giant Ponzi scheme -- and real-estate bubbles always degenerate into Ponzi schemes irrespective of the political ideology -- typically results in a financial panic that shows how specious the prosperity was. Real estate is always attractive because it creates fixed assets whose valuation creates a wealth effect for the rest of the economy while, for the time, being less capricious than investments in manufacturing, mineral exploration, infrastructure, or retailing.

I don't know what metaphor the officially-atheist leaders of the PRC use as the equivalent of "The Good Lord isn't creating any more real estate"... but at some point, any speculation can overprice anything. If real estate gets too expensive in such an American city as Los Angeles, people in Dayton figure that they might be able to tread water by working at cashiers at Wal*Mart in the northern suburbs of Cincinnati instead of going to Greater LA to look for a job. (Really, Greater LA is mostly a horrible place in which to live). People can live in their cars or in tents, or crowd into apartments. Yes, people do that where real-estate prices are exorbitant. "Twelve in one room in A-May-REE-Caw" is exactly what one gets with a housing shortage because the places that have jobs have little new housing development except for McMansions built solely for the top 5% in income. The only good thing about those McMansions is that they are so crappily built that they will eventually be subdivided or demolished for high-density housing.

Plutocracy creates mass suffering in America. Over the last forty years that has been the dominant ideology through neoliberalism that holds that those who own the gold make the rules.

If Greater Los Angeles is to have the population of Michigan in an area that is roughly 70 miles west to east (Santa Monica to San Bernardino) and 40 miles from north to south, then its housing had better look more like that of Seoul than like South Bend -- and it cannot afford a car culture, either if people aren't to have shortened lives due to air pollution. That's my swipe at L.A. Just because much of Greater LA was orange groves in the memory of living people and that orange groves were torn up for tract housing in which everyone can have a car doesn't mean that tract houses with two-car garages and two cars in those garages (and a third parked on the lawn because the kid can't afford local housing but would never think of moving to Minneapolis because that would be too cold) or to Toledo because there are few jobs there.

The Good Lord isn't making any more real estate, but our land-use policies in America are... fecal.

......................

Who knows? Maybe the Chinese Communist Party will do what the Polish PZPR (Polish United Worker's Party, a Commie-dominated coalition) did as the economy went into the tank: stave off revolution by allowing some political pluralism that it thinks that non-Commies will mismanage badly. OK, China in 2021 has much more of a free-market economy than did Poland in 1989....

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Sep-2021 World View: Chinese migration to Japan

FullMoon Wrote:> https://news.yahoo.com/study-rewrites-un...58811.html
> John, have you seen this. Japanese have roughly 71% Han ancestry.
> There goes the 'racial superiority' claim or partially?

This is not surprising. China has always been subject to massive
internal rebellions, wars, droughts and famines, and people are going
to flee anywhere they can, including Japan, where they intermarry with
the local population. So of course Chinese DNA is going to be mixed
with Japanese DNA.

What I consider a lot more interesting is the spread of Buddhism from
India across Asia and into Korea and Japan in the form of Zen
Buddhism. Displacing an established religion with another one is
incredibly difficult, and I described how hit happened in my book on
Vietnam.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 21-Sep-2021 World View: Zen Buddhism in America

FullMoon Wrote:> That would be great. But I respect your perspective as well and
> would like to know if you found anything during your study.
> Acknowledgement and adoption took some during it's westward
> journey did it not? Slow start, burn bright and then dim or
> fizzle out. That's what I learned but I could be wrong.

Here's what I wrote in my Vietnam book:

**** Zen Buddhism in the West

Zen Buddhism (or Ch'an Buddhism in Chinese) has the most recognizable
name in the West of all the Buddhist schools. The word "zen" itself,
outside of Buddhism, has taken on meanings related to intuition or
meditation or calmness. Zen Buddhism is an extremely complex and
deeply spiritual set of beliefs and practices, but a few of those
practices have been popularized in the West as a way to accomplish
tasks intuitively, as in the phrase "the zen of gardening." Thus, one
can be a Christian, for example, and still benefit from some of the
valuable practices and rituals of Zen Buddhism.

The word "zen" derives from a Sanskrit word meaning "meditation."
Central to Zen teaching is the belief that awakening and enlightenment
can be achieved by anyone but one requires instruction in the proper
forms of spiritual cultivation by a master through meditation.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 23-Sep-2021 World View: Baghdad Bob Butler (Updated)

Bob Butler" Wrote:> [Re Baghdad Bob]: I'm sure that you couldn't answer with a
> rational argument, but I expected you to be a bit more creative in
> inventing an insult. I'm not sure even which Baghdad
> administration you are identifying me with.

The real Baghdad Bob gained a reputation for saying things that were
obviously false. So a Baghdad Bob might say that the weather is
sunny, even though you look out the window and see it's raining.

The whole southern border situation is a continuing stream of Baghdad
Bob lies. You started out with Baghdad Bob lies months ago when you
said the southern border issue was "imaginary," and I had to post news
articles proving that you were lying.

DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is a wonderful Baghdad Bob. Every
day for months, he would say the southern border was "closed." Every
day, Fox News would be showing video of illegal migrants pouring
across the border. So every day, Fox News would show a clip of
Mayorkas saying that the border was closed, and then Fox News would
show new videos of migrants crossing the border. That's a great
example of "Baghdad Bob," saying things that are obviously false.

And Mayorkas is still doing it. For several weeks, Fox News has
been showing drone video footage of thousands of Haitians forming
a refugee camp under a bridge on the border. Mayorkas denied that
it exists, but once again the Fox News video showed him to be a
liar. So you know what the jacksasses in the Biden administration
did? They made it illegal to fly a drone in that region of the
border. Can you believe those a--holes?? Well, so the Fox News
reporter asked for help from the border patrol. The border patrol
are extremely hardworking people at a dangerous job, but they've
been treated with nothing but contempt by the Biden administration,
so they're VERY pissed off at the Biden administration, and they're
happy to help Fox News. So the Fox News reporter flew over the
Haitian camp in a border patrol plane and got the video footage that
way. So not only did Fox News prove once again that Mayorkas was
a Baghdad Bob liar, but they also threw this phony political
drone regulation back in their ahole faces.

Then there's the issue of thousands of Haitians being released
into the country with no vetting or restriction. Mayorkas says
it isn't happening. But Fox News has reporters in airports
and bus stations show that it is happening. Furthermore,
Fox News contacts in the border patrol are telling the reporter
that thousands of them are being released. Once again,
Baghdad Bob Mayorkas simply lied. Not surprising, since the
people in the Biden administration are all lying jackasses.

Jen Psaki is a very sleazy Baghdad Bob. She lies about everything
without hesitation. She also said that no Haitians were being
released into the country. Yesterday, Fox reporter Peter Doocy asked
Psaki for the number of people in the border camp. She lied when she
said she didn't know, and she lied when she said that she would get
that information to Doocy by the end of day yesterday. So far it
hasn't happened. Fox News is estimating about 12,000 people.

Joe "Baghdad Bob" Biden said that the border situation is "under
control." That's an obvious lie to anyone who watches a few of the
news reports on Fox News. The border situation is chaotic and out of
control, and Baghdad Bob Biden is simply lying.

There's also the issue of thousands of Haitians not being tested for
Covid. Biden is demanding that everyone get vaccinated and wear a
mask, but thousands of Haitians are NOT being tested for Covid, NOT
required to be vaccinated, and NOT required to wear a mask.

So Biden is using the Haitians to spread Covid across the country.
Biden apparently wants everyone to be as sick as possible, so
that the Socialists can take control.

Now let's turn to Baghdad Bob Butler.

Bob Butler" Wrote:> Let’s list four of the major pieces of the Democratic agenda.
> Save lives by fighting Covid. All men should be equal under law
> rather than victims of prejudice, oppression and violence. The
> environment should be protected. The infrastructure should be
> kept up to date. All of these things are supported by the
> majority.

"Save lives by fighting Covid." -- That's a lie. Biden is encouraging
the spread of Covid by illegal migrants. Also, Biden is depriving
Florida of therapeutics as political revenge. Biden is using Covid to
kill Republicans.

"The environment should be protected." -- That's a lie. Biden changed
us from an energy independent country to one that is begging other
countries for oil. Since we have much stricter environment laws, the
other countries will pollute more. Biden is making the environment
much worse.

"All men should be equal under law rather than victims of prejudice,
oppression and violence." -- That's a lie. It's laughable to see you,
a known racist bigot and anti-Semite, having an exchange with
FullMoon, who I think said that he's black. You hate blacks. You're
part of the Democrat/KKK culture that lynched black males in the 20th
century, and is achieving the same result in the 21st century by
killing them on the streets of Chicago and other Democrat-governed
cities.

The worst is Joe "Baghdad Bob" Biden. As a child, Joe Biden grew up
in the same Democrat/KKK party culture that fought to destroy America
during the Civil War, and which had sought revenge by creating the KKK
and the Jim Crow laws. Biden's mentor was Senator Robert Byrd, who
had been a Grand Wizard in the KKK. Biden made vitriolically racist
remarks his entire life, until 2007 when Obama chose him to be VP.
Hunter Biden's laptop was full of racist epithets, in addition to
showing evidence of Hunter and Joe Biden's involvement in influence
peddling, money laundering and tax evasion in Ukraine, Russia and
China, news that the Democrats censored. By the way, last week's
27-page indictment of Michael Sussmann in the Durham probe threatens
to unravel the entire Russia hoax, and lead to more criminal charges
of Democrats who participated.

FullMoon has already called you out for your insulting, condescending,
racist remarks directed at him. "Baghdad Bob Butler" is too good a
name for you, because the real Baghdad Bob eventually apologized. You
should quit while you're ahead, but I know you won't apologize and you
won't quit because you're like Brower -- totally evil, and a total
fanatic.

Update (25-Sep): After claiming for weeks that the border camp with
illegal Haitian migrants didn't exist, shown to be lies by Fox News
videos of the camp, Mayorkas has finally admitted that the camp
exists, with some 15,000 illegal migrants, almost all Haitians, with
an estimated 40% infected with Covid. But then he ordered to border
police to "process" the migrants. About 2,000 have been deported to
Haiti, while all of the remainder of the 15,000 are being dispersed to
gas stations and bus stations in towns around the country, in the hope
that they'll all vote Democrat. Today, the border camp is empty.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Oct-21 World View -- Tensions heat up between China and Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taiwan celebrates 'Taiwan National Day'
  
• China sends hundreds of fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace
  
• Xi Jinping is running out of time
  
• China's disastrous one-child policy produces harsh consequences
  
• Taiwan's friends -- America, Japan, Australia, India
  
• The Beijing Olympics
  
• When will the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan?
  
• Moving
  

****
**** Taiwan celebrates 'Taiwan National Day'
****


Isabel Zhang was born in mainland China, while her husband James Xu is Taiwanese. The Australian couple are worried about their respective families in case of war (Australian Broadcasting)

On October 10, 1911, the Wuchang Uprising began, launching the Chinese
Revolution and forming the Chinese Nationalists, led by Sun Yat-Sen.
He created the Republic of China based on his "Three Principles of the
People," developed in 1905 -- nationalism, democracy and welfare.
Later in the century, the Chinese Communists, led by Mao Zedong,
defeated the Chinese Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, in the
Chinese civil war that climaxed in 1949. Chiang Kai-shek and the
Chinese Nationalists fled to Formosa and formed the nation of Taiwan.
On Sunday, October 10, Taiwan celebrated the anniversary of the
uprising that led to the Republic of China.

Beijing prefers to celebrate its own China National Day on October 1,
which commemorates the creation of the People's Republic of China in
1949. The Chinese Communists hate Taiwan's National Day, and this has
led to dueling rhetoric.

Taiwan celebrated with huge parades highlighted by military equipment.
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen said the following:

<QUOTE>"We will do our utmost to prevent the status quo from
being unilaterally altered.

We will continue to bolster our national defense and demonstrate
our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that
nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for
us.

The path that China has laid out offers neither a free and
democratic way of life for Taiwan, nor sovereignty for our 23
million people."<END QUOTE>

****
**** China sends hundreds of fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace
****

During the past few days, the Chinese Communists have sent hundreds of
fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace. China's state media
explained this aerial invasion in this way:

<QUOTE>"According to statistics from Taiwan island, the PLA
has sent warplanes into the island's "airspace" in 198 days so far
this year. Such a number reflects that the PLA has carried out
wide-ranged and profound operations to familiarize itself with
battlefield conditions, with a large number of PLA Air Force units
having experience flying close to the island. Once the order to
attack is given, the PLA's pilots will fight as "experienced
veterans." ...

The PLA is forming a siege of Taiwan with a show of strength as it
did in Beijing in 1949. There is no doubt about the future of the
situation across the Taiwan Straits. The initiative of when and
how to solve the Taiwan question is firmly in the hands of the
Chinese mainland."<END QUOTE>

Well, that's an interesting historical comparison. They're relating
the "siege" of Taiwan to a siege that the Communists used to defeat
the Nationalists in 1949.

So the Communists say that the purpose of sending hundreds of
warplanes over Taiwan is to allow their pilots to gain experience and
become "experienced veterans." There are two possible interpretations
of this. One is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, and
the other is that the current incursions are merely practice for a
future invasion to occur sometime in the future.

That the Communists intend to invade Taiwan is certain. China has
repeatedly declared the intention to invade Taiwan and annex it to
China.

Last week, as the hundreds of warplanes were threatening Taiwan,
Communist leader Xi Jinping said the following:

<QUOTE>"Taiwan independence separatism is the biggest
obstacle to achieving the reunification of the motherland, and the
most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation. ...

Reunification through a peaceful manner is the most in line with
the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan
compatriots. ...

No one should underestimate the Chinese people's staunch
determination, firm will, and strong ability to defend national
sovereignty and territorial integrity. The historical task of the
complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and
will definitely be fulfilled."<END QUOTE>

****
**** Xi Jinping is running out of time
****

Xi's problem is that, in many ways, he's running out of time, mostly
for generational reasons.

Until the 1990s, the Nationalists ruled Taiwan, and most Taiwanese
believed that it was only a matter of time before Taiwan would be
reunitied with the mainland, although many would have demanded that
the Nationalists govern the reunited country.

Since then, the survivors of the 1940s civil war have died off, and
new generations have grown and come to power. A major turning point
was the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which the citizens of Taiwan
watched with horror. This led to the rise of the nominally
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose leader is
the current president Tsai Ing-wen. As the new generations have come
to power, and young people displace old people, more and more people
oppose reunification. In recent years, Beijing's brutal treatment of
Hong Kong has reinforced this opposition. According to polls, fewer
than 10% of the people today favor reunification, and many of those
would agree to reunification only if mainland China became a
democratic country, something that's not going to happen.

So Xi Jinping is running out of time in Taiwan, but he's also running
out of time on the mainland. Younger generations are increasingly
nationalistic and xenophobic, and are demanding that Xi Jinping stop
stalling and take action in Taiwan.

****
**** China's disastrous one-child policy produces harsh consequences
****

The one-child policy, adopted in 1979, has been a disaster for China.
Women who had unapproved pregnancies could be violently dragged from
their homes and forced to abort and be sterilized. If an unapproved
child was born, then the child could not be registered, and
essentially did not exist, so could not get schooling or other social
benefits.

The policy accelerated the aging of the population, and a decline in
the working-age population, which threatens economic growth.
Furthermore, with fewer children, fewer elderly people could be cared
for by their children. In 2015 there were eleven working age Chinese
for every retiree. By 2050, if not earlier, there will only be two for
each retiree.

In addition, parents often aborted girl babies, since they wanted
their one child to be a boy. The result is that millions of young
males have been unable to find a wife, and so females are enticed or
coerced (kidnapped by criminal gangs) to become wives of Chinese men
who have no other options, which is raising tensions with China's
neighbors.

The result is that the number of elderly people is growing, while the
population as a whole is shrinking. This puts a strain on the
country's pension system, and creates a constantly shrinking labor
force. China is already finding it difficult to fill many difficult
jobs, including jobs in the military, resulting in lower GDP growth.

There are other domestic problems facing Xi Jinping. The collapse of
Evergrande is spreading and could have far-reaching consequences,
including outside of China. (See "25-Sep-21 World View -- China Evergrande construction firm heads to default"
)

Internationally, China is facing criticism about its brutal crackdown
on the free press in Hong Kong, China's arrest and enslavement of
millions of Uighurs, and illegal belligerent actions in the South
China Sea. The Chinese Communists have made it abundantly clear that
they don't care at all what others think of them, and what
international laws they violate. What we're seeing is the
millennia-old Chinese culture saying that the rest of the world are
barbarians, and are to be treated as donkeys, with no purpose except
to serve the Chinese Communists.

****
**** Taiwan's friends -- America, Japan, Australia, India
****

According to analysts, China would prevail in an invasion of Taiwan,
although Taiwan would inflict a great deal of damage on China at the
same time. However, that assumes that Taiwan would fight Taiwan
alone.

By the way, to my knowledge nobody supports China's invasion of
Taiwan. Cambodia and Pakistan are close allies with China, but I'm
not aware that they or any other country would join China in an
invasion of Taiwan.

However, there are several countries that are likely to help defend
Taiwan.

The most obvious friend is the United States, and it's debated
endlessly whether the US would defend Taiwan, or would just stand by
and allow Taiwan to be swallowed up by China. My personal belief is
that this would constitute a "generational regeneracy" event
(regenerating civic unity behind the president), and we would be at
war with China within a few hours or days.

America has been helping Taiwan to defend itself, mainly by providing
weapons systems. In the last few days, it was reported that about two
dozen U.S. troops have been deployed to Taiwan for at least the last
year to train local military forces to bolster the island's defenses.
The special operators have worked with Taiwanese ground troops and the
Marines have worked with maritime forces on small-boat operations.

Taiwan has other friends, most notably Japan. As I've been writing
for years, China has been thirsting for a war with Japan in revenge
for the atrocities (chemical warfare, rape of Nanking) committed by
Japan on China during World War II. Furthermore, and nationalism and
xenophobia have increased in both countries, and there are now signs
that the Japanese are thirsting for a new war with the Chinese. It
shouldn't take long for both thirsts to be quenched.

One trigger for a Japanese war with China would be a Chinese invasion
of Taiwan. Although Japan has a "pacifist" constitution, in 2015 the
law was reinterpreted to permit Japanese forces to defend an ally
(Taiwan or the US) as "collective self-defense," provided that Japan's
government determined that the war was a security threat that
threatened Japan's own survival. For example, the Japanese might view
the invasion of Taiwan as a stepping-stone to a planned invasion of
Japan. (See "28-Jun-21 World View -- Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China"
)

Beyond Japan, there is also the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue,
linking the United States, Japan, India and Australia, This grouping
does not have any military commitments, but it will hold talks to
"hold China accountable."

****
**** The Beijing Olympics
****

The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing will begin on Friday, February 4,
and end on Sunday, February 20. This is an interesting milepost in
the discussions of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

On the one hand, the Olympics games are a matter of enormous
prestige for the Chinese Communists, and they would not want to
besmirch the games by an untoward event, like a major war. This suggests
that any planned invasion of Taiwan would have to come after February 20.

On the other hand, it's expected that there will be substantial
boycotts of the games, for two reasons. One reason is that China is
actively committing genocide, ethnic cleansing and enslavement of
millions of Muslim Uighurs, and many people will boycott in protest.
The second reason is that China kidnaps and jails foreigners without
charges in order to gain political advantage, in a policy known as
"hostage diplomacy," and many people want to stay away from China for
fear of being held hostage to some political dispute.

****
**** When will the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan?
****

Xi Jinping and Tsai Ing-wen both upped rhetoric this past week, in
celebration of the "National Days" for China and Taiwan, respectively,
with China going much farther by launching hundreds of warplanes to
fly over Taiwan.

There is enormous and growing pressure on Xi Jinping to do something
to solve the Taiwan problem. However, I agree with those analysts who
say that Xi cannot risk an invasion at this time (or at any time,
really) because the results would be too unpredictable and potentially
catastrophic. So you have the "pressure cooker" analogy, where you
don't know when the pressure will be too great, but you know that the
pressure has to blow at some point. Or maybe you prefer the "straw
that breaks the camel's back" analogy where you know that if you keep
piling on straw, then eventually a straw will break the camel's back,
though you don't know in advance which one.

As I've written in the past, crisis wars begin with a chaotic
unexpected event. World War I began because a 12-year-old high school
student decided in 1914 that it would be fun to shoot an Archduke. WW
II began in 1937 because a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in
the woods. Those wars were a complete surprise, even to the
belligerents. That's how WW III will begin. It will be totally
irrational, insane and unexpected, and it could happen any day.

****
**** Moving
****

During the last two weeks, I've been moved to a new apartment, and I
still can't figure out where many things are in the new apartment. At
the same time, my computer's hard disk crashed, though fortunately I
had everything backed up. All of this has been extremely
overwhelming, and it turns out that at age 77 it's even more so, when
everything happens at once.

So anyway, anyone who wants to contact me by snail mail should use my
new address, which is the same as my old address, except for the
apartment number:

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment number]
Cambridge, MA 02142

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

• China mounts largest incursion yet near Taiwan, blames U.S. for tensions (Reuters, 4-Oct-2021)
  
• Record number of PLA warplanes flying over Taiwan Straits as form of National Day ‘military parade’ (Global Times, Beijing, 3-Oct-2021)
  
• The US must avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs (Guardian, London, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan says it's 'on alert' amid China air incursions (Deutche Welle, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Record number of China planes enter Taiwan air defence zone (BBC, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan marks ‘national day’ today under looming shadow of China (Hindustan Times, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan rejects China's 'path' amid show of military force (AP, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• Xi Jinping vows to fulfil Taiwan ‘reunification’ with China by peaceful means (Guardian, London, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Xi Jinping Warns World to Butt Out of 'Taiwan Question' (Newser, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Chinese President Xi Jinping says peaceful reunification with Taiwan is in country’s best interests (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• China's Xi vows 'reunification' with Taiwan (Reuters, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan won't be forced to bow to China, president says (Reuters, 10-Oct-2021)
  
• There's talk of the threat of war between China and Taiwan, and it's impacting Asian Australians (Australian Broadcasting, 6-Oct-2021)
  
• Attrition: Revising Chinese History As It Happens (Strategy Page, 28-May-2021)
  
• China Slams [former PM Tony] Abbott Warning It Could 'Lash Out Disastrously' Over Taiwan as Xi Vows Reunification (Australian Broadcasting, 9-Oct-2021)
  
• Canberra’s provocative actions over Taiwan may render irreparable damage to China-Australia relations (Global Times, Beijing, 6-Oct-2021)
  
• Taiwan’s Tsai turns to masters for help out of fear of catastrophic consequences: Global Times editorial (Global Times, Beijing, 5-Oct-2021)
  
• Recognize That China Has Huge Demographic Problems (Forbes, 25-Mar-2021)
  
• US troops deployed to Taiwan to train local forces amid growing tensions with China, report says (Stars And Stripes, 7-Oct-2021)
  
• Deflation Threat Looms As China Suffers First Population Decline Since 1949 (Zero Hedge, 27-Apr-2021)
  
• Japan Sees China-Taiwan Friction as Threat to Its Security (Bloomberg, 24-Jun-2021)

Related Articles:

• Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China (28-Jun-2021)
  
  
• China Evergrande construction firm heads to default (25-Sep-2021)
  
  
• China and Japan significantly escalate military tensions over Taiwan (24-Jul-2021)
  
  
• China's Evergrande financial crisis threatens China's financial stability (16-Sep-2021)
  
  
• ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet (17-Sep-2021)
  
  
• The Afghanistan catastrophe (23-Aug-2021)
  
  
• Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China (24-May-2020)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Coronavirus coverup unravels in US as China threatens Australia (01-Jun-2021)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
Sun Yat-Sen, Wuchang Uprising, Chinese Revolution,
Republic of China, Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Zedong,
one-child policy, Japan, Australia, India,
Beijing Olympics, hostage diplomacy

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment number]
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Oct-2021 World View: Gun battles in Beirut Lebanon

I'm way too sleepy to write a coherent story, but I'm watching this
live on the BBC and it appears to be a really big deal. Here's what I
understand:

• There was a port blast a little over a year ago in Beirut.
  It was huge, and it flattened the entire city. The government
  is to blame.
  
  
• The entire economy has collapsed. Electricity is available at
  most two hours a day, and often zero hours a day. The government is
  to blame.
  
  
• There has been an investigation to find out who in the government
  is to blame. Rumors are that the investigation is finding Hezbollah
  is to blame, which doesn't surprise me in the least.
  
  
• There were protests this morning by Hezbollah protesters and their
  Shia Amal political party demanding
  that the investigation be ended.
  
  
• Christian militias tried to end the protests, and this led to the
  gun battles that killed several people. I don't know whether they
  were Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah's (Iran-supported Shia Muslim) Hezbollah /
  Amal people or whether they were Michel Aoun's (Syriac Maronite
  Catholic) Christian militia people.
  
  
• Now I do. The dead are five pro-Hezbollah protesters who were
  "shot in the head."
  
  
• Switching over to al-Jazeera, where the coverage is much more
  intense: The Christian snipers are shooting from buildings. Hezbollah's
  army is conducting searches of all the building.
  
  
• The gun battles are ongoing. The gun battle is now in its fourth
  hour. There are now six people dead.
  
  
• It's now escalating -- machine guns, rocket-propelled
  grenades.
  
  
• There's talk of a fear of a renewal of the 1980s civil war, but
  that's impossible because Lebanon is in a generational Unraveling era.
  This gun battle is in the generational Democide pattern that describes
  what happens in the decades following an ethnic civil war.

-- Deadly shooting rocks Beirut as tensions over blast probe erupt
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-eas...021-10-14/
(Reuters, 14-Oct-2021)

** 17-Jul-21 World View -- Lebanon's self-destruction continues as government collapses again a year after port disaster
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210717

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Oct-2021 World View: Gunfight fizzles after five hours

Those who feared a new civil war are relieved that the gunfight
fizzled after almost five hours.

The al-Jazeera reporter Zeina Khodr has described that this gun battle
in an ordinary residential neighborheed, where the apartment building
on one side of the street was mostly occupied by Hezbollah supporters,
while the apartment building on the other side was mostly occupied by
Christians. The Hezbollah protesters went down the street separating
the two neighborhoods So the gunfire, and snipers at the top of the
Christian apartment buildings started shooting at the protesters, and
aiming for their hoods. Hezbollah/Amal calls this an "ambush." After
five hours, the gunfight fizzled, with six people killed and dozen
wounded.

Khodr described the residents of the apartment buildings as elderly
people who remembered bloody civil war and did not want to see it
repeated. This is what always happens after a crisis war. The people
who lived through the war are traumatized and keep the war from
recurring. In the case of an ethnic civil war, the result is
the Democide pattern which means that the government (the winning
side in the civil war) uses violence to keep the losing side
under control.

Since the port explosion in August of last year, Lebanon in general
and Beirut in particular, have been in a deep economic crisis, with no
reliable electricity or water.

Judge Tarek Bitar has been praised by the international community for
being unbiased and transparent in carrying out the investigation.

Hezbollah are demanding that Bitar be removed, and are threatening a
civil war if he isn't removed.

Christians, including president Michel Aoun, are demanding that he
continue with investigation.

There are have any number of political assassinations, and there have
been no investigations. This time, a whole city was blown up, and the
Lebanese people are saying that so many people were traumatized, and
are still traumatized, and are demanding to know who was responsible
for the explosion.

People want to know who owned the ammonium nitrate? Who refused to do
anything about it, though they were warned? Who ordered the ammonium
nitrate to be unloaded from the boat into the port in 2014?

Hezbollah is the major power in Beirut and Lebanon. However, they do
not want the investigation to proceed. The prime minister (Sunni
Muslim) Hassan Diab is apparently allied with Hezbollah. They are
demanding that the investigation end, while many people, especially
the Syriac Maronite Catholics, are demanding that it reach an end.
This disagreement has further frozen an already government that exists
just to protect Hezbollah's power.

The gunfight has fizzled in Beirut, but the situation very tense, with
everybody fearing more violence.

I should add that a lot of the above analysis is based on what I've
been hearing on al-Jazeera, which is funded by Qatar. I don't know
which side the Qatar government is on, although al-Jazeera claims
that it's reporting is independent.

**** Lebanon's 'confessional' system of government

The following is some material that I've written before.

Lebanon has a "dynastic confessional" system of government. Lebanon's
"confessional" system of government is defined in its constitution,
which requires that the three main government offices be occupied by
specific sectarian groups:

• The president, currently Michel Aoun, must be a Syriac
  Maronite Catholic. Michel Aoun is 83 years old.
  
  
• The speaker of parliament must be a Shia Muslim. The current
  speaker is Nabih Berri, who has held the position since 1992. The
  Shia Muslim sect in Lebanon is controlled by the terrorist militia
  Hezbollah, which is led by Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
  
  
• The prime minister, must be a Sunni Muslim. Saad al-Hariri was
  designated for this position, following the resignation of Hassan Diab
  after the August 4 explosion a year ago. Hassan Diab has stayed on in
  a caretaker capacity until political leaders can agree on a new
  premier.

So there are three "branches" of government in Lebanon, but there are
no checks and balances, since the leader of each branch can do
whatever he wants, including skimming money and paying his cronies to
do things like beat up people in the opposition, and there is nothing
to stop them. That's why each branch forms a kind of "dynasty."

** 17-Jul-21 World View -- Lebanon's self-destruction continues as government collapses again a year after port disaster
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210717

[pbrower2a]

(10-10-2021, 07:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 11-Oct-21 World View -- Tensions heat up between China and Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taiwan celebrates 'Taiwan National Day'
  
• China sends hundreds of fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace
  
• Xi Jinping is running out of time
  
• China's disastrous one-child policy produces harsh consequences
  
• Taiwan's friends -- America, Japan, Australia, India
  
• The Beijing Olympics
  
• When will the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan?
  
• Moving
  

****
**** Taiwan celebrates 'Taiwan National Day'
****


Isabel Zhang was born in mainland China, while her husband James Xu is Taiwanese.  The Australian couple are worried about their respective families in case of war (Australian Broadcasting)

On October 10, 1911, the Wuchang Uprising began, launching the Chinese
Revolution and forming the Chinese Nationalists, led by Sun Yat-Sen.
He created the Republic of China based on his "Three Principles of the
People," developed in 1905 -- nationalism, democracy and welfare.
Later in the century, the Chinese Communists, led by Mao Zedong,
defeated the Chinese Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, in the
Chinese civil war that climaxed in 1949.  Chiang Kai-shek and the
Chinese Nationalists fled to Formosa and formed the nation of Taiwan.
On Sunday, October 10, Taiwan celebrated the anniversary of the
uprising that led to the Republic of China.

Beijing prefers to celebrate its own China National Day on October 1,
which commemorates the creation of the People's Republic of China in
1949.  The Chinese Communists hate Taiwan's National Day, and this has
led to dueling rhetoric.

Taiwan celebrated with huge parades highlighted by military equipment.
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen said the following:

   <QUOTE>"We will do our utmost to prevent the status quo from
   being unilaterally altered.

   We will continue to bolster our national defense and demonstrate
   our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that
   nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for
   us.

   The path that China has laid out offers neither a free and
   democratic way of life for Taiwan, nor sovereignty for our 23
   million people."<END QUOTE>

It's obvious that Chiang Kai-Shek failed to unify China except against Japanese aggression, and then only to recognize a shared enemy in Japan. His Nationalist Party was in no way democratic, but it was also pathetically weak and corrupt. China was honeycombed with warlords who had control, often despotic, of large sections of China, and their only dispute with the Communists was that the Communists would not let them keep the loot from their corruption. Constraint of the Communists depended upon the warlords, and one after another of those failed after the withdrawal of Japanese occupation which itself created a vacuum which the well disciplined Communists  filled outside of the urban areas.

Of course, China was an economic nightmare of poverty and chaos in which no semblance of Sun Yat Sen's principle of welfare could reign. It is clear that Chiang Kai Shek was unable to offer any one of Sun Yat Sen's three principles of nationalism, democracy, or welfare. Driven completely out of mainland China, the nationalists retreated to a rump state in Taiwan which was unsuited to an amphibious attack by Mao's Communists. The Nationalists could not hold Hainan, also a significant island, but close enough for a primitive navy to support an amphibious assault.

The Chinese Communists were able to achieve national unity, but they never could achieve democracy. Welfare? China remains a dog-eat-dog economic order. China is a conservative dream for many in the West for having no welfare state.

Quote:****
**** China sends hundreds of fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace
****

During the past few days, the Chinese Communists have sent hundreds of
fighter planes and bombers into Taiwan airspace.  China's state media
explained this aerial invasion in this way:

   <QUOTE>"According to statistics from Taiwan island, the PLA
   has sent warplanes into the island's "airspace" in 198 days so far
   this year. Such a number reflects that the PLA has carried out
   wide-ranged and profound operations to familiarize itself with
   battlefield conditions, with a large number of PLA Air Force units
   having experience flying close to the island. Once the order to
   attack is given, the PLA's pilots will fight as "experienced
   veterans." ...

   The PLA is forming a siege of Taiwan with a show of strength as it
   did in Beijing in 1949. There is no doubt about the future of the
   situation across the Taiwan Straits. The initiative of when and
   how to solve the Taiwan question is firmly in the hands of the
   Chinese mainland."<END QUOTE>

Well, that's an interesting historical comparison.  They're relating
the "siege" of Taiwan to a siege that the Communists used to defeat
the Nationalists in 1949.

While Taiwan has become a functional society with a multiparty democracy, prosperity characteristic of Western Europe, and a solid welfare state and achieved Sun Yat Sen's Three Principles of the People, the People's Republic has become an economic power by abandoning Socialism and has developed a strong navy and air force. The PRC has long sought to have an Anschluss with Taiwan and has developed the military force to make resistance futile.

At the same time, the PRC has gotten away with the worst economic features of capitalism and the worst political features of a Marxist regime. People know enough to not challenge the authority of the Chinese Communist Party, which to its credit has abandoned socialism and any dream of exporting Maoist ideology. It has abandoned the "of the Proletariat" part of the Dictatorship of the Proletariat as a rationale for dictatorship. The dictatorship remains intact, and the current leadership has begun to restore the Personality Cult that weakened for a while. It's back, and no matter what the ideology, it is destructive. If I see a personality cult obnoxious and dangerous if it revolvers around a bumbler like Donald Trump, then just think of how obnoxious and dangerous it is with Xi Jinping. 

China has essentially a capitalist order closer on economic principles to Ronald Reagan or Margaret Thatcher than to Maoism but with no semblance of democracy. For capitalism to work the capitalist order must prevent the destructive speculative bubbles of the sort that led to catastrophic meltdowns of the sorts that we Americans experienced in 1929 and 2008. China is getting hit hard now with its own "Too Big to Fail" enterprises such as American nightmares as banks that had lent heavily to the speculative boom in real estate. Yes, it is possible to have a long-lasting boom in real estate so long as the actors such as developers invest small and lenders are proscribed from participating in the upward valuation of real estate that borrowers enjoy. In the development of suburban housing in America, lenders simply recycled mortgage payments and low-yield savings accounts into subsequent loans while meeting administrative costs and turning a profit for bankers that could fare well on the volume of mortgage loans. It's only when the lenders went into giant projects that visionary entrepreneurs (including bankers that tried to become developers) that a speculative boom could become destructive.

We all know that there are related activities that must be kept separate. My favorite example is that even though physicians, pharmacists, and undertakers are involved with the end of clients; lives, it is best that the activities of physicians, pharmacists, and undertakers be separate. It's best that a physician not have an economic interest in the demise of his patient and that an undertaker not be involved in medical decisions. That's the most blatant. The American political system long kept retail banking, investment banking, and insurance separate because of the potential corruption of coordination in potentially-lucrative activities that could combine power and irresponsibility. In general, capitalism works best when economic interests who can do grave harm in coordination for the maximization of profits are kept separate. Just as democracy requires the separation of powers, workable capitalism depends upon the dispersal of economic power without which economic activity gravitates to entities that are not only Too Big to Fail but also Too Corrupt to Save.

Evergrande looks like an entity both Too Big to Fail and Too Corrupt to Save. When things start to go wrong there is no obvious choice except to start anew after punishing the bad actors. The People's Republic of China has one measure that the United States does not have for dealing with spectacularly-corrupt people who do economic crimes, and that is the death penalty. The optimum might be a more dramatic means of achieving death for people who did the most shameful stuff like operating a Po9nzi scheme. Seppuku, anyone? Of course, that is an obsolete part of the medieval leftover of a country that should not be confused with either China or the USA.

Quote:So the Communists say that the purpose of sending hundreds of
warplanes over Taiwan is to allow their pilots to gain experience and
become "experienced veterans."  There are two possible interpretations
of this.  One is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, and
the other is that the current incursions are merely practice for a
future invasion to occur sometime in the future.

The rest of the world would be offended if the aerial forces of the USA did something like that with Cuba, and rightly so.

OK, the ultimate solution would be that the PRC started to adopt characteristics of Taiwan as a workable democracy with a sound economic system that has appropriate regulation to prevent gigantic frauds and a welfare system to protect the vulnerable. Then the distinction between Mainland China and Taiwan would become as politically irrelevant as the distinction between the German Federal Republic and the German Democratic Republic after the DDR became a genuine democracy in the aftermath of its one free election.

With a leader as erratic as XI, anything is possible, and much of what is possible it horrible.

That the Communists intend to invade Taiwan is certain.  China has
repeatedly declared the intention to invade Taiwan and annex it to
China.

Quote:Last week, as the hundreds of warplanes were threatening Taiwan,
Communist leader Xi Jinping said the following:

   <QUOTE>"Taiwan independence separatism is the biggest
   obstacle to achieving the reunification of the motherland, and the
   most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation. ...

   Reunification through a peaceful manner is the most in line with
   the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan
   compatriots. ...

   No one should underestimate the Chinese people's staunch
   determination, firm will, and strong ability to defend national
   sovereignty and territorial integrity. The historical task of the
   complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and
   will definitely be fulfilled."<END QUOTE>

"Peaceful" incorporation? As in Austria in 1938, or Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania in 1940?

I am fully satisfied that the People's Republic of China has the ability to project military force anywhere in the Pacific Basin in the event that anyone in the Basin does something truly stupid, like persecuting any Chinese diaspora from Perth to Bangkok to Los Angeles. Yes, even Los Angeles, as any American government that would mess with its Chinese community would do bad stuff to plenty of others. I don't see anything like that happening for now but who knows what a racist demagogue who makes Donald Trump look like an ill-behaved Maine Coon Cat in contrast to what  a man-eating tiger could do.

(John, I am surprised that as fussy as you are about current or former Presidents as Biden and Obama for deeds that violate your version of political orthodoxy I am astonished that you are blind to the dangers of Trump-style demagoguery, egoism in power, contempt toward dissidents who lie within the range of a recurring orthodoxy in American politics, and overall cruelty. You are free to see the liberal side of American politics as soft on Communism and excessively indulgent on personal behavior that fosters individual poverty and prevents maximal growth which would occur in an America full of industrial sweatshops.
 

Quote:****
**** Xi Jinping is running out of time
****

Xi's problem is that, in many ways, he's running out of time, mostly
for generational reasons.

Until the 1990s, the Nationalists ruled Taiwan, and most Taiwanese
believed that it was only a matter of time before Taiwan would be
reunitied with the mainland, although many would have demanded that
the Nationalists govern the reunited country.

Since then, the survivors of the 1940s civil war have died off, and
new generations have grown and come to power.  A major turning point
was the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which the citizens of Taiwan
watched with horror.  This led to the rise of the nominally
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose leader is
the current president Tsai Ing-wen.  As the new generations have come
to power, and young people displace old people, more and more people
oppose reunification.  In recent years, Beijing's brutal treatment of
Hong Kong has reinforced this opposition.  According to polls, fewer
than 10% of the people today favor reunification, and many of those
would agree to reunification only if mainland China became a
democratic country, something that's not going to happen.

So Xi Jinping is running out of time in Taiwan, but he's also running
out of time on the mainland.  Younger generations are increasingly
nationalistic and xenophobic, and are demanding that Xi Jinping stop
stalling and take action in Taiwan.

It is also thirty-two years after the Tienanmen crackdown. It is unfortunate that China did not undergo the democratization that central and Balkan Europe and for a limited time and extent Russia underwent. A democratic China would solve a huge number of international problems while creating none. It is hard to know what the mass sentiment in China is because of the tight control on Chinese media. The Chinese Communist Party is a secretive clique those upper leadership has serious rifts that it can cover with ritual. I think you agree with me that if the PRC were to ever democratize, the rump Republic of China would become irrelevant.  Both would have Sun Yat-Sen as their political icon for nationalism, democracy, and the general welfare of the Chinese People. The Republic of China would have as much political validity as the DDR in September 1990.

Quote:****
**** China's disastrous one-child policy produces harsh consequences
****

The one-child policy, adopted in 1979, has been a disaster for China.
Women who had unapproved pregnancies could be violently dragged from
their homes and forced to abort and be sterilized.  If an unapproved
child was born, then the child could not be registered, and
essentially did not exist, so could not get schooling or other social
benefits.

The policy accelerated the aging of the population, and a decline in
the working-age population, which threatens economic growth.
Furthermore, with fewer children, fewer elderly people could be cared
for by their children.  In 2015 there were eleven working age Chinese
for every retiree. By 2050, if not earlier, there will only be two for
each retiree.

In addition, parents often aborted girl babies, since they wanted
their one child to be a boy.  The result is that millions of young
males have been unable to find a wife, and so females are enticed or
coerced (kidnapped by criminal gangs) to become wives of Chinese men
who have no other options, which is raising tensions with China's
neighbors.

The result is that the number of elderly people is growing, while the
population as a whole is shrinking.  This puts a strain on the
country's pension system, and creates a constantly shrinking labor
force.  China is already finding it difficult to fill many difficult
jobs, including jobs in the military, resulting in lower GDP growth.

The one-child policy may have had unintended effects. The intended effect was to allow China to limit is population growth so that it could more easily meet the needs of food and could dedicate more of its economic activity to industrialization. An unintended effect is that it ensured that China would not have so much cannon fodder for war as was the case for the USA around 1860, many European countries in 1914, or Iraq and Iran in the 1980's. Other countries have had to adjust to a shrinking labor force, and such is not so much a social disaster as is a large number of young people with no viable means of supporting themselves.

People with only one child are in less position in which to see war as an opportunity, I could tell you about one of my ancestors who lost three sons in the American Civil War. I'm guessing that they took the money from enlistment and saw themselves using it for settling on the Western frontier.

Son W died in early childhood. Sons O, J, and L went off to war and died of wounds or disease. Daughter E did go to Deadwood, Dakota Territory, and became a real-life "Miss Kitty" and died young. Son C managed to get out west to what is now Idaho, and it is not clear what happened to him. Son A, who was too young to enlist, became an attorney and a long-career judge near Pittsburgh. Son T became a successful small-town banker.

I am guessing that the family cut off daughter E as a scandal. O, J, and L didn't fully spend their war bonuses, but A and T obviously took advantage of the windfall in a world with more opportunity than before the Civil War than before. C? I have seen nothing about him after a Census report of 1880. (The Census of 1890 was destroyed in a fire).

Quote:There are other domestic problems facing Xi Jinping.  The collapse of
Evergrande is spreading and could have far-reaching consequences,
including outside of China.  (See "25-Sep-21 World View -- China Evergrande construction firm heads to default"
)

Internationally, China is facing criticism about its brutal crackdown
on the free press in Hong Kong, China's arrest and enslavement of
millions of Uighurs, and illegal belligerent actions in the South
China Sea.  The Chinese Communists have made it abundantly clear that
they don't care at all what others think of them, and what
international laws they violate.  What we're seeing is the
millennia-old Chinese culture saying that the rest of the world are
barbarians, and are to be treated as donkeys, with no purpose except
to serve the Chinese Communists.

Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall. --
Proverbs 16:18, KJV.

The ancient Hebrews were onto something, were they not? OK, pride is in practice arrogance and is difficult to distinguish from the haughty spirit. It seems universally true irrespective of time and culture. The ancient Greeks had their mythology to explain such, as with Icarus, and came to much the same conclusions about human character as did the Hebrews.

Maybe someone can inform me on what Lao-Tze, Confucius, and the Buddha have to say about arrogance and its contribution to ruin. I can tell you of one country to which I have ancestral connections -- many -- and they would have been wiser to heed Proverbs instead of Mein Kampf.

Quote:****
**** Taiwan's friends -- America, Japan, Australia, India
****

According to analysts, China would prevail in an invasion of Taiwan,
although Taiwan would inflict a great deal of damage on China at the
same time.  However, that assumes that Taiwan would fight Taiwan
alone.

By the way, to my knowledge nobody supports China's invasion of
Taiwan.  Cambodia and Pakistan are close allies with China, but I'm
not aware that they or any other country would join China in an
invasion of Taiwan.

However, there are several countries that are likely to help defend
Taiwan.

The most obvious friend is the United States, and it's debated
endlessly whether the US would defend Taiwan, or would just stand by
and allow Taiwan to be swallowed up by China.  My personal belief is
that this would constitute a "generational regeneracy" event
(regenerating civic unity behind the president), and we would be at
war with China within a few hours or days.

America has been helping Taiwan to defend itself, mainly by providing
weapons systems.  In the last few days, it was reported that about two
dozen U.S. troops have been deployed to Taiwan for at least the last
year to train local military forces to bolster the island's defenses.
The special operators have worked with Taiwanese ground troops and the
Marines have worked with maritime forces on small-boat operations.

Taiwan has other friends, most notably Japan.  As I've been writing
for years, China has been thirsting for a war with Japan in revenge
for the atrocities (chemical warfare, rape of Nanking) committed by
Japan on China during World War II.  Furthermore, and nationalism and
xenophobia have increased in both countries, and there are now signs
that the Japanese are thirsting for a new war with the Chinese.  It
shouldn't take long for both thirsts to be quenched.

One trigger for a Japanese war with China would be a Chinese invasion
of Taiwan.  Although Japan has a "pacifist" constitution, in 2015 the
law was reinterpreted to permit Japanese forces to defend an ally
(Taiwan or the US) as "collective self-defense," provided that Japan's
government determined that the war was a security threat that
threatened Japan's own survival.  For example, the Japanese might view
the invasion of Taiwan as a stepping-stone to a planned invasion of
Japan.  (See "28-Jun-21 World View -- Japan's plans for defending Taiwan from an attack by China"
)

Beyond Japan, there is also the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue,
linking the United States, Japan, India and Australia, This grouping
does not have any military commitments, but it will hold talks to
"hold China accountable."

The same countries would align with China if it were obliged to turn against North Korea. If you think China is bad, then just think of how horrible and reckless North Korea is, A nuclear warhead fired over China even if its final destination were the USA would be an act of war against any country (including Russia and Canada if within the trajectory).

India is a major power. Japan is a sleeping tiger as a power, analogous in some ways to the USA in the 1930's. I could see Indian leadership aligning with the Uighurs due to the large Muslim population in India.

Quote:****
**** The Beijing Olympics
****

The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing will begin on Friday, February 4,
and end on Sunday, February 20.  This is an interesting milepost in
the discussions of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

On the one hand, the Olympics games are a matter of enormous
prestige for the Chinese Communists, and they would not want to
besmirch the games by an untoward event, like a major war.  This suggests
that any planned invasion of Taiwan would have to come after February 20.

On the other hand, it's expected that there will be substantial
boycotts of the games, for two reasons.  One reason is that China is
actively committing genocide, ethnic cleansing and enslavement of
millions of Muslim Uighurs, and many people will boycott in protest.
The second reason is that China kidnaps and jails foreigners without
charges in order to gain political advantage, in a policy known as
"hostage diplomacy," and many people want to stay away from China for
fear of being held hostage to some political dispute.

I expect China to be on its best behavior during the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Even Nazi Germany toned down the antisemitic rhetoric in 1936.

Quote:****
**** When will the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan?
****

Xi Jinping and Tsai Ing-wen both upped rhetoric this past week, in
celebration of the "National Days" for China and Taiwan, respectively,
with China going much farther by launching hundreds of warplanes to
fly over Taiwan.

There is enormous and growing pressure on Xi Jinping to do something
to solve the Taiwan problem.  However, I agree with those analysts who
say that Xi cannot risk an invasion at this time (or at any time,
really) because the results would be too unpredictable and potentially
catastrophic.  So you have the "pressure cooker" analogy, where you
don't know when the pressure will be too great, but you know that the
pressure has to blow at some point.  Or maybe you prefer the "straw
that breaks the camel's back" analogy where you know that if you keep
piling on straw, then eventually a straw will break the camel's back,
though you don't know in advance which one.

As I've written in the past, crisis wars begin with a chaotic
unexpected event.  World War I began because a 12-year-old high school
student decided in 1914 that it would be fun to shoot an Archduke.  WW
II began in 1937 because a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in
the woods.  Those wars were a complete surprise, even to the
belligerents.  That's how WW III will begin.  It will be totally
irrational, insane and unexpected, and it could happen any day.

...at a time of its choosing. The Chinese Communist Party seems to have control of the armed forces, which is very different from the reality in Japan in which the armed forces had the real power in politics in the 1930's. I expect the PRC to not do anything rash that would weaken a government unlikely to react rashly. An adversary like Donald Trump is more likely to find himself in a very bad situation because the PRC might want him defeated politically so that his successor would be more likely to consolidate political authority while ignoring a fait accompli. If I am most likely to pick a time, then it would be if Japan gets a Trump-like leader (less likely than in America, because racist populism is very much on the insignificant "lunatic fringe") or if Joe Biden's successor (2025 should the GOP take the House, Senate, and the Presidency( if the President should be a fire-breathing, militant right-winger full of himself.  If the Chinese can't recognize the arrogance of their leadership and the danger that such implies, then they can understand that in other countries. Hypocrisy is a norm in human nature.

Yes, I am glad that Donald Trump is no longer President, China might have already seized Taiwan by now just to embarrass Donald Trump.

[nguyenivy]

I doubt China will get involved in any major military conflict given their demographics and the 1-child policy causing that huge change over the 30 years leading up to 2015. If anything, the most I would expect China to do would be more of what they are doing now: take advantage of their manufacturing base because countries outsourced their manufacturing abroad. They may charge more for the exports but just barely enough to keep us (USA & other western nations) from re-developing our manufacturing base. Climate change will be an interesting wildcard to look out for globally. Maybe it will be popular to just buy fewer things & keep what you do buy for longer, causing a big surplus of stuff from China et al that no-one really wants anymore. We'll see in the coming years how it all plays out...

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Oct-2021 World View: The Mass Exodus of Women from work

thinker Wrote:> I have a theory on the worker shortage, most people are saying
> that it is due to the enhanced unemployment and stimulus. Well I
> live in Florida and we haven't had any of this for a few months
> and we still have a worker shortage. Like everyone else I thought
> that once all the enhanced unemployment and stimulus ended that
> the worker shortage would end, but it didn't so I started thinking
> on this topic and I think I know why it hasn't finished and
> probably won't for years. It is a generational thing. ...

> As usual I am interested in what are the opinions and thoughts of
> the other forum members.

I do have some additional thoughts on the lack of employment.
These are things that are polically incorrect, so you don't hear
them mentioned in the news.

There was a segment on CNBC a couple of days ago, analyzing
what they called "the mass exodus of women from work."
They displayed a graphic with the following information:

Quote:> "The Lost workers -- whee are the women workers?
> September jobs: -26K for women, +220K for men
> September labor force: -309K for women, +182K for men"

People had hoped that once schools reopened, women would go back to
work. But instead, the problem got worse in September when schools
reopened. The number of women with a job dropped by 26,000, and
309,000 women left the work force.

It was a long segment, discussing the reasons behind this situation,
but most of it was left-wing crap, because they didn't explain why
women are leaving the work force, except to say that day care was very
expsnsive, and the only "solution" they have is Biden's huge $5
trillion "social infrastructure nonsense" bill, which contains
provisions to improve day care. However, as Becky pointed out, the
proposals are loaded with rules and regulations that would put small
day care centers out of business, and only appear to large national
day care centers.

According to an analyst on Fox News, the day care regulations would
shut out faith-based day care centers, and would give the federal
government tight control over what was taught in those centers
(presumably CRT).

The CNBC segment interviewed one mother who was staying at home to
home-school her children. That mother did not say why she
was staying at home, but we can be pretty sure that she was asked
that question by the interviewer, but that part of the interview
was not shown. If she had said "lack of day care," then it
would have been shown, so it must have been something else.

All the mother did say is that she "had to be forgiving of herself"
for staying at home. This was a link to feminist claims over the last
50 years that women had to work to serve as role models for other
women, and that any woman who stayed home "to take care of the kids"
was a traitor to other women. So I don't know if feminists have been
harassing this mother for staying at home, but apparently she found a
way to forgive herself.

So why doesn't she send her kids to school so she can go back
to work? The answer is pretty obvious, but was not mentioned
once, or even hinted at, in the lengthy CNBC segment.

**** Teachers unions and Critical Race Theory (CRT)

The Covid lockdown last year was a revelation to many parents.
All-powerful teachers unions put one roadblock after another
to opening schools up. Even when everyone was vaccinated, even
when there was plenty of social distancing, even when entire schools
were modified, it was never enough for the teachers unions, and
it was obvious that they were just making excuses.

But something else happened. Mothers got to sit next to their
children on zoom classes and see what the children were actually
being taught. Many parents were shocked and appalled at how
CRT was used to encourage kids to hate each other and their country.
Many parents were totally disgusted by this, and rightly so.

The joke was that even math class was being considered racist.
It's obvious to me why they're saying that. As I've said many
times, politicians and journalists are too dumb to be able
to understand fourth grade math, and that's undoubtedly true
of many teachers as well. If you're too dumb to solve
a problem like "9.8 is 7% of what number?", then you're
too dumb to teach history or any other subject, because history
is filled with those kinds of conundrums.

During the last few months, the public anger against CRT has
been growing. The Democrats see CRT as a vital tool in the
"reeducation" of the Trump supporters, and so they're fighting
back.

So why do moms not want to send their kids back to school?

Reason #1: Schools are teaching CRT, which teaches children
to hate each other and to hate the country.

**** Attorney-General Garland

Terry McAuliffe, who is the Democrat running for governor in Virginia,
said at a debate that parents should not be permitted to tell schools
how to each.

Last week, the Attorney-General Garland sent out a letter to school
boards saying that the school board should report local opposition to
CRT, because any parent opposing CRT is likely to be a domestic
terrorist. I'll come back to this.

It now turns out that Garland's son-in-law is the founder of Panorama
Education, a multi-million dollar company providing critical race
theory materials to 23,000 schools in the nation, funded by taxpayers.
Republicans are demanding all documents related to this situation, and
we assume Garland will refuse.

Reason #2: If a mom objects to teaching CRT, she could be reported
to the FBI by the school board, with serious consequences.

**** Gender fluidity

Just as bad as CRT is gender fluidity, which is probably the stupident
policy I've seen in my lifetime, and I've seen a lot of stupid
policies. According to this policy, any child can claim to be of
either gender, and take part in activities based on that gender.
So we have stories (reported only on Fox News) about "trans-gender"
boys joining girls teams and beating all the girls, because trans-gender
boys may claim to be girls,

Gender fluidity became Biden administration policy, which meant
that school boys could visit the girls bathrooms. Many people
were absolutely appalled by this (and rightly so, because this is
unbelievably stupid), and some pointed out that a girl could be
raped in the girls bathroom.

Reason #3: Gender fluidity is completely insane and repulsive, and
particularly exposes girls to sexual assault by boy pretending to be
girls.

**** Democrats and rape

Support for rape and rapists is a big part of the Democrat party
culture. During the slave era, slave owners could freely rape their
girl slaves. The Democrats wanted to continue slavery and were
bitterly vengeful when the Republicans freed the slaves and won the
Civil War. The Democrats formed the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) so that they
could lynch young black boys and continue raping black girls, with
impunity. Democrats bitterly opposed the 1964 Civil Rights act.
Today, black women are raped far more often than white women. If
she's raped by a black man, she has to keep quiet, rather than get a
brother in trouble. If she's raped by a white man, it's sure to be a
Democrat, and she has to keep quiet, rather than have the community
lose its perks.

The most obvious example of the Democrat rape culture is Bill Clinton,
who was credibly charged of violent rape by a dozen women.

One was Juanita Broaddrick. Bill Clinton tricked her into his hotel
room by telling her it was for a business meeting. Then he bit her
lip hard enough to tear her lip and make it bleed, and promised not to
bite her lip any more if she complied with the rape. So Broaddrick
was forced to be raped and have sex with a painful, bleeding lip.
Then after she got dressed he decided he wanted to do it again --
raped her a second time with a painful, bleeding lip.

Bill Clinton is considered a god by the Democrats, and Hillary is
praised as some kind of feminist hero. This is so pathetic and
sickening it's hard believe it's happening.

Reason #4: Democrats support rape, when done by Democrats or in
support of Democrat policy

**** Rape in girls bathrooms in Loudon County, Va

• Cartoon: "Relax lady - I'm transgender" (WeaselZippers)

It has recently been revealed that in May of this year, a ninth-grade
girl was sexually assaulted in a girls bathroom by a "gender fluid"
boy wearing a skirt. Apparently she was terrorized and forced to
perform fellatio on the boy.

The girl's father, Scott Smith, reported this to Louden County
school board. They did nothing --- except to transfer the
boy to another school in Loudon County, where a little while
later he similarly assaulted another girl.

When the father, Scott Smith, attended a school board meeting
and was angry that the school board was doing nothing about
the violent attack on his daughter, the school board called in
security, threw the father to the ground, and dragged him off
to jail.

All of this only came out recently.

-- The Loudoun bathroom teen rape situation just keeps getting worse
https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2021/10/16/...se-n422796
(Hotair, 16-Oct-2021)

So two summarize: When the rape occurred and the father complained,
the boy was transferred to another school where he raped again,
and the father was arrested.

Reason #5: Two girls were actually raped in Loudon County, and
the boy wasn't prosecuted, to protect "gender fluidity" ideology,
but the girl's father was

**** Gardland's letter declaring moms 'domestic terrorists'

It was apparently the Loudon county incident that triggered Garland's
letter. The school board covered up the two rapes, had the father,
Scott Smith, arrested, and then asked the DOJ to protect them from
racists and domestic terrorists who complain about CRT. Garland
complied.

**** Why are women not returning to work?

The purpose of this essay was to comment on the question of
why people are not returning to work, and I based my reply
on a CNBC segment that said that it was women in particular
who are not returning to work.

There are some obvious reasons why mothers have decided to
home-school the kids, and that's simply because the teachers
unions and Biden administration are turning the public
schools into sewers. In particular:

• Parents are appalled and disgusted by schools teaching
  children to hate each other and hate America.
  
  
• Parents are also appalled by the disgusting "gender
  fluidity" policies that expose girls to rape and abuse.
  
  
• Parents who complain are now threatened by being called racists
  and domestic terrorists.

What mother would want to send her children into that kind of sewer?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 18-Oct-2021 World View: At MIT, woke Twitter mob clashes with academic values

This controversy at MIT is of interest to me because I used to be an
MIT student, and because I live on the edge of the MIT campus. I
became aware of this controversy because MIT's president, L. Rafael
Reif, sent a letter to the entire MIT community, apologizing for the
controversy.

Professor Dorian Abbot of the University of Chicago had been invited
to give a lecture at MIT on October 21 on his research, titled
"Climate and the Potential for Life on Other Planets." And of course
anything to do with climate change, even on other planets, is
particularly important to the woke crowd since, after all, we're going
to die in nine years if we don't do as AOC and Biden demand.

However, in August, Abbot co-authored an opinion piece for Newsweek in
which they wrote that the "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI)"
agenda in academia seeks to increase the representation of some groups
through discrimination against members of other groups, violates the
ethical and legal principle of equal treatment, compromises the
university’s mission, and undermines the public's trust in
universities and their graduates.

Here are some excerpts from the Newsweek article:

Quote: "American universities are undergoing a profound
transformation that threatens to derail their primary mission: the
production and dissemination of knowledge. The new regime is
titled "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" or DEI, and is enforced
by a large bureaucracy of administrators. Nearly every decision
taken on campus, from admissions, to faculty hiring, to course
content, to teaching methods, is made through the lens of
DEI. This regime was imposed from the top and has never been
adequately debated. In the current climate it cannot be openly
debated: the emotions around DEI are so strong that
self-censorship among dissenting faculty is nearly universal.

The words "diversity, equity and inclusion" sound just, and are
often supported by well-intentioned people, but their effects are
the opposite of noble sentiments. Most importantly, "equity" does
not mean fair and equal treatment. DEI seeks to increase the
representation of some groups through discrimination against
members of other groups. The underlying premise of DEI is that any
statistical difference between group representation on campus and
national averages reflects systemic injustice and discrimination
by the university itself. The magnitude of the distortions is
significant: for some job searches discrimination rises to the
level of implicitly or explicitly excluding applicants from
certain groups.

DEI violates the ethical and legal principle of equal
treatment. It entails treating people as members of a group rather
than as individuals, repeating the mistake that made possible the
atrocities of the 20th century. It requires being willing to tell
an applicant "I will ignore your merits and qualifications and
deny you admission because you belong to the wrong group, and I
have defined a more important social objective that justifies
doing so." It treats persons as merely means to an end, giving
primacy to a statistic over the individuality of a human
being. ...

Viewed objectively, American universities already are incredibly
diverse. They feature people from all countries, races and
ethnicities (for example, one of us was born and raised in Chile,
and is classified as Hispanic by his university). This is in stark
contrast with most universities in Europe, Asia and South
America. American universities are diverse not because of DEI, but
because they have been extremely competitive at attracting talent
from all over the world. Ninety years ago Germany had the best
universities in the world. Then an ideological regime obsessed
with race came to power and drove many of the best scholars out,
gutting the faculties and leading to sustained decay that German
universities never fully recovered from. We should view this as a
warning of the consequences of viewing group membership as more
important than merit, and correct our course before it is too
late."

The last paragraph, comparing to DEI activists to Nazis, must have
been particularly infuriating to the woke crowd.

So the lecture was canceled, thanks to attacks by what Abbot describes
as a "Twitter mob."

What's interesting is that Abbot has apparently received a great deal
of support, perhaps even more supporters than people in the Twitter
mob. My guess is that this is true because the controversy is a
conflict between two woke programs -- climate change and
Stalinism/Fascism. I gather that Abbot's work on climate change is so
advanced that the climate change side had an advantage over the
Stalinist/Fascist side.

The result is that Abbot has been invited to give his lecture
internally at MIT, and also Princeton University has invited him to
gave the same lecture over Zoom. According to news reports, thousands
of people have signed up to watch the Princeton lecture. Who wouldn't
want to see a lecture on climate change on other planets?

I do believe that the loony trend is reversing. It's been going on at
least since the 2000s, when Obama and Biden started using the
"teabagger" epithet to refer to political enemies, so it won't reverse
overnight, though Biden's presidency has been and is so thoroughly and
incredibly disastrous, that the reversal is occurring more rapidly
than might otherwise have been expected.

MIT is debating academic values versus loony woke policies. It's a
good debate because there is some value to the loony work policies.
However, the fact that there's a debate at all is a sign that the
reversal is in progress.

---- Sources:

-- Dorian S. Abbot / Ivan Marinovic / The Diversity Problem on Campus
| Opinion
https://www.newsweek.com/diversity-probl...on-1618419
(Newsweek, 12-Aug-2021)

-- EAPS department annual Carlson Lecture canceled over speaker Dorian
Abbot’s comments on DEI
https://thetech.com/2021/10/14/carlson-l...ncellation
(The Tech, MIT, 14-Oct-2021)

-- L. Rafael Reif / To the members of the MIT community,
http://mit.imodules.com/controls/email_m...4ddc5d4b28
(MIT, 18-Oct-2021)

-- Dorian Abbot / Princeton welcomes professor whose lecture was
canceled at MIT
https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/10/17/...princeton/
(BostonHerald, 17-Oct-2021)

---- Related article:

** 30-Jun-19 World View -- MIT criticizes 'toxic atmosphere' targeting Chinese students
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190630

[Tim Randal Walker]

China's nuclear arsenal described.

If I understand correctly, China can nuke the continental USA.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Oct-21 World View -- Investigation of Beirut Lebanon's seaport explosion leads to more violence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bloody gun battle in Beirut Lebanon stokes memories of civil war
  
• Lebanon's government of impunity
  
• The investigation of the port explosion paralyzes Lebanon's government
  
• Hezbollah threatens large-scale violence
  
• Lebanon's future
  

****
**** Bloody gun battle in Beirut Lebanon stokes memories of civil war
****


A man stands near the Beirut blast site on August 11, 2020. Graffiti reads 'My government did this' (Reuters)

One again, new events have occurred to prove that Lebanon is an island
of grief surrounded by woe. The people have to suffer through one
disaster after another in Lebanon, where there is nobody on the side
of the angels.

On Thursday of last week, there was a bloody five-hour gun battle in
Lebanon's capital city Beirut, pitting Syriac Maronite Christians
versus Shia Muslim Hezbollah. Seven people were killed, all Shia
Muslims, and dozens were injured.

The gun battle was carried live on al-Jazeera. The gun battle
occurred in an ordinary residential neighborhood, where the apartment
buildings on one side of the street were mostly occupied by Hezbollah
supporters, while the apartment buildings on the other side were
mostly occupied by Christians. The Hezbollah protesters marched down
the street separating the two neighborhoods. According to the news
reports, snipers were on top of the apartment buildings on the
Christian side, shooting protesters in the head as they walked by.
Hezbollah, which is a military force backed by Iran, and its political
arm, the Amal movement, are accusing the Christian party of conducting
an "ambush."

According to the reports, the residents of the apartment buildings
were elderly people who remembered the extremely horrific 1975-90
civil war, and did not want to see it repeated. This is what always
happens after a crisis war. The people who lived through the war are
traumatized and keep the war from recurring. In the case of an ethnic
civil war, the result is the Democide pattern which means that the
government (the winning side in the civil war) uses violence to keep
the losing side under control.

As the gun battle was progressing, many people feared that it would
escalate into a renewal of the civil war. But this is a generational
Unraveling era for Lebanon, and there are too many people alive who
remember the horrors of the last civil war, and will do everything in
their power to prevent a new one. So it's not surprising the gun
battle fizzled after five hours.

****
**** Lebanon's government of impunity
****

In August of last year there was a massive explosion in the port of
Beirut, which could be felt as far away as Cyprus. It has been
described as the greatest non-nuclear explosion in world history. The
people of Beirut, many of whose lives were destroyed by the
catastrophe, correctly blame government officials. Many go to blame
the most powerful force in Lebanon's government, Iran-backed
Hezbollah. (See "22-Aug-20 World View -- Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon explosion"
)

In 2013, 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate were stored in an
unprotected warehouse in the seaport of Beirut next door to a
fireworks factory. The government did nothing about it for years,
despite repeated warnings, and there are reports that Hezbollah used
some of the ammonium nitrate to create bombs and weapons that it used
in the war in Syria. Finally, on Tuesday, August 4, 2020, a
catastrophic explosion in the Beirut seaport leveled thousands of
homes, killed and injured thousands of people, and left 300,000 people
homeless,

Prior to the explosion, goverment services like providing electricity,
water and garbage collection were spotty. Since the explosion, the
value of the currency has fallen 90%, homes go for days with no
electricity, the water is filthy, and there's no garbage collection.

Anecdotally, they now live the “shawarma paradox”: the national
sandwich which cost 5,000 Lebanese pounds or $2 a couple of years ago,
today is priced at 20,000 pounds or less than a dollar.

Lebanon's government is a government of impunity. Any government
official can skim money and put it into his Swiss bank account or buy
a Swiss villa with impunity. There have been numerous political
assassinations, and no one is ever held accountable. There are never
even any investigations.

With the seaport explosion, a whole city was blown up, and so many of
the Lebanese people were traumatized, and are still traumatized, that
the ordinary people (not the élite) and are demanding to know who was
responsible for the explosion so that they can be held accountable.

****
**** The investigation of the port explosion paralyzes Lebanon's government
****

The "ordinary" people of Beirut have been demanding an investigation,
and an end to the government of impunity. They want to know who is
responsible, and they want someone to be held accountable. People
want to know who owned the ammonium nitrate? Who refused to do
anything about it, though they were repeatedly warned over and over?
Who ordered the ammonium nitrate to be unloaded from the boat into the
port in 2013 in the first place?

Last year, the people initially demanded an international
investigation. Hezbollah's powerful leader, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
blocked those attempts, and said that an investigation would have to
be local.

So surprisingly there actually was a Lebanese investigation, led by
Judge Tarek Bitar has been praised by the international community for
being unbiased and transparent in carrying out the investigation.

However, as the investigation has proceeded, it has been increasingly
threatening to Hezbollah, as former Hezbollah ministers are being
called to testify. At the same time, Lebanon's Christian President
Michel Aoun has supported the investigation.

It's the success so far of the investigation that led to Thursday's
shootout. The Hezbollah supporters were protesting the investigation,
demanding that Bitar be removed. It's not clear why the Christians
were ambushing the Hezbollah protests at this time, except that
there's a lot of anger among victims of the catastophic seaport
explosion, and they are willing to use violence to determine who is
responsible.

****
**** Hezbollah threatens large-scale violence
****

Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has made it clear that he will not tolerate the
Bitar investigation much longer. An investigation that finds that
Hezbollah officials were responsible for the explosion would be a
major humiliation to Hezbollah and to Iran.

The Christian president Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader
Nasrallah formed an alliance of convenience in 2006, to their
mutual benefit. However, the Catholics want an investigation
and Hezbollah does not, and this has caused a split between
Aoun and Nasrallah.

This conflict has benefited Aoun's Christian political rival, Samir
Geagea, a Hezbollah opponent with close Saudi ties. Geagea is leader
of Lebanese Forces (LF), a Christian party opposing Aoun.

Geagea was a military commander during the Lebanese civil war, and is
accused of participating in massacres and an organized coup.
Nasrallah is now blaming Geagea and the Lebanese Forces with being
responsible for the shootout last week, allied with Saudi Arabia, the
United States and Israel. According to a pro-Hezbollah report, Geagea
has sought to “impose himself as the sole representative of the
Christians and return to the sectarian stronghold by committing a
deliberate and organized massacre like the one he committed during the
Lebanese Civil War.”

In a nationally televised speech on Monday, Nasrallah said:

<QUOTE>"Civil war constitutes the real plan of the Lebanese
Forces party, because civil war will lead to demographic changes,
which will cram the Christians into a specific area, like in
[their] past dreams, where they will establish a Christian canton,
a Christian state, or a Christian ghetto, which will be dominated
by the Lebanese Forces party. ...

[Geagea,] you should pay attention to the following figure. This
is the first time I divulge this figure, and I do it to prevent a
civil war, rather than to threaten to start one. You know me, I
never say something that is not true. I belong to the school that
maintains that lies are not useful even in psychological
warfare. Only truth and reliability are useful in psychological
warfare."<END QUOTE>

At the same time, Hezbollah continues to demand that Judge Bitar's
investigation be ended, while the public at large is demanding that
it reach a conclusion and identify the responsible parties.

****
**** Lebanon's future
****

Lebanon's government was already in a fragile state, but the dispute
over Judge Bitar and the investigation has paralyzed the government
completely, as it is now impossible even to call a cabinet meeting.

The situation is evolving on a daily basis. Nobody wants another
civil war, particularly the elderly people who survived the last civil
war. But there will still be sporadic violence.

Unanswered questions: Will Judge Tarek Bitar's investigation continue?
Will the government collapse completely? The situation is so
volatile, we may have at least a few answers soon.

The one emerging hope is that there will be reforms leading to the
emergence of a non-sectarian government of technocrats. If such a
government is acceptable to the international community, then
sanctions will be removed, and aid will flow into Lebanon.

However, that's a dream. Iran and Hezbollah will never give up their
power without a war, and it's more likely that the sporadic violence
will recur and grow.

Sources:

• Deadly shooting rocks Beirut as tensions over blast probe erupt (Reuters, 14-Oct-2021)
  
• Hezbollah accuses Lebanese Forces of killing its supporters (Al-Jazeera, 18-Oct-2021)
  
• Lebanon tensions test Hezbollah-Aoun alliance (Reuters, 18-Oct-2021)
  
• Hezbollah backers claims US-Zionist-Geagea conspiracy in Lebanon - analysis (Jerusalem Post, 19-Oct-2021)
  
• Hezbollah’s campaign against Beirut blast judge paralyses Lebanon’s government (France24, 19-Oct-2021)
  
• Lebanon goes to polls in March as economic meltdown spirals (Reuters, 19-Oct-2021)
  
• Better Safe Than Sorry: Irish Peacekeepers Are Bringing Javelin Missiles On Lebanon Deployment (Forbes, 19-Oct-2021)
  
• Details of Beirut clashes remain unclear as Lebanon marks protests anniversary (Jerusalem Post, 17-Oct-2021)
  
• Iran blames Israel for Lebanon's unrest (Mideast Monitor, 16-Oct-2021)
  
• 'The Iran touch': Tehran is behind decline in Lebanon, Iraq - Bennett (Jerusalem Post, 18-Oct-2021)
  
• Marwan Bishara / A country in freefall: What future for Lebanon? (Al-Jazeera, 19-Jul-2021)
  
• Lebanon’s Future as an Inclusive Democracy in Doubt (Fair Observer, 18-Oct-2021)
  
• Lebanon to resume talks with IMF, but outcome uncertain (Deutsche-Welle, 18-Oct-2021)
  
• Lebanon elite united against probe seen as survival threat (AFP, 18-Oct-2021)
  
• Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah: The Lebanese Forces Party Is The Biggest Threat To The Existence And Security Of Christians In Lebanon; We Have 100,000 Trained Fighters (Memri, 19-Oct-2021)

Related Articles:

• Lebanon's self-destruction continues as government collapses again a year after port disaster (17-Jul-2021)
  
  
• Lebanon's new prime minister resigns in failure, throwing country into further chaos (27-Sep-2020)
  
  
• Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon explosion (22-Aug-2020)
  
  
• Beirut Lebanon police clash with furious protesters following Tuesday's catastrophic explosion (09-Aug-2020)
  
  
• Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses (19-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Massive anti-government street protests paralyze Lebanon (21-Oct-2019)
  
  
• Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war (02-Sep-2019)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut,
Michel Aoun, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Iran,
ammonium nitrate, fertilizer, Tarek Bitar,
Lebanese civil war, Democide pattern, shawarma paradox,
Samir Geagea, Lebanese Forces, LF, Saudi Arabia

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[John J. Xenakis]

** 21-Oct-2021 World View: Hypersonic nuclear missiles and aircraft carriers

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> The myth is that it's easy to kill carriers and yet most major
> countries have them or are building. US; UK; France; China;
> Russia; Japan; South Korea; India; Italy. With that many countries
> building, perhaps the myth is just that.

Navigator Wrote:> I am still very curious as to what the great increases to US fleet
> defenses are.

> Carriers are still the "prestige weapon", like Battleships still
> were pre WW2. Of course many thought that newer BB designs would
> make them "unsinkable" and that increased AA armament would
> protect them from newer threats. Even Japan had such advocates.

> Well, we will shortly see.

> Personally, I think that missile barrages will overwhelm the CV
> group. And of course there can be long range guided nuclear tipped
> torpedoes. Also, vast improvements in mine warfare have also
> happened, but are commonly overlooked.

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> While some of the battleship admirals refused to face the facts,
> the writing was on the wall in 1921 when Mitchell sunk
> Ostfriesland with air delivered bombs. Battleships really had no
> chance since aircraft were faster and much longer ranged. Today,
> various countries aren't spending billions on carriers out of
> vanity, but out of a realization of the unique benefits they
> offer.

> Missile barrages need to first find the target which is constantly
> moving and then get though all the dedicated firepower designed
> expressly to stop such barrages. While not impossible, it's not as
> easy as you might think. Torpedoes have a relatively short range
> and require a sub to get pretty close to actually fire them. Plus,
> using a nuclear weapon opens the door to having them be used
> against you. I think China would think very hard about
> that.

It's claimed that China's development of hypersonic missiles has come
as a complete shock to the Biden administration.

-- China tested hypersonic weapons twice, ‘stunned’ US: Report
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/2...pons-tests
(Al-Jazeera, 21-Oct-2021)

Military analysts are claiming that US assets, including aircraft
carriers, have no defense to hyperbolic missiles with a nuclear
warhead.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter
  
• ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance
  
• The future of Myanmar (Burma)
  

****
**** Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter
****


Burmese troops

Ever since the military coup that took place on February 1 of this
year, the military junta of Myanmar (Burma) has been increasingly
violent. More than 1,100 civilians have been killed by Myanmar
security forces with thousands of others arrested, according to the
United Nations, involving most peaceful anti-government protesters.

Now, the military junta in Myanmar is massing tens of thousands of
troops and heavy weapons in northwest Myanmar, and talking about
"clearance operations." This is exactly the same scenario that
preceded the ferocious attacks, unspeakable violance and mass
atrocities conducted against the Rohingyas in Rakhine state in
2016-2018.

According to Tom Andrews of the United Nations:

<QUOTE>"These tactics are ominously reminiscent of those
employed by the military before its genocidal attacks against the
Rohingya in Rakhine State in 2016 and 2017.

We should all be prepared, as the people in this part of Myanmar
are prepared, for even more mass atrocity crimes. I desperately
hope that I am wrong."<END QUOTE>

As I've described starting with the massive demonstrations in 2007 by
the "'88 Generation," Burma's last two generational crisis wars
(1886-1891 and 1948-1958) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars
involving multiple ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)

When a crisis war ends, the country enters a new generational
Crisis era (fourth turning) 58 years after the end of the war.
In this case, Myanmar entered a new generational Crisis era
in 2016.

Almost on cue, Myanmar's army started committing major atrocities in
2016, and today, the next round of atrocities is apparently about to
begin.

****
**** ASEAN blocks Myanmar's attendance
****

ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict
policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others. ASEAN
has been criticized in the past for refusing to condemn atrocities
conducted by any of its member governments, but they've maintained
their non-interference policy until now.

At an emergency meeting two weeks ago, ASEAN members agreed to exclude
Myanmar junta's chief Min Aung Hlaing from attending a regional summit
later this month, on October 26-28. This was a major snub since
nothing like it has ever happened before. The reason given is that
they didn't want to legitimize the junta as the government of Myanmar.
Instead, they said that they would invite a "non-political
representative" to represent Myanmar.

Apparently this panicked the government of Myanmar, since two days
later they released thousands of political prisoners. But it soon
became obvious that this a ploy to regain the approval of ASEAN, since
they re-arrested many of those prisoners since then. Myanmar has
angrily rejected the claims of ASEAN, blaming them on "foreign
intervention," referring to the United States. Myanmar may not have
anyone at all representing Myanmar at the meeting.

****
**** The future of Myanmar (Burma)
****

Myanmar entered a generational Crisis era (fourth turning) in 2016,
and is apparently already in a full-scale generational crisis war.
The last crisis war, from 1948 to 1958, was a massive, bloody war
involving multiple ethnic groups within Burma (Myanmar).

It now appears that Myanmar is entering a similar period. The army is
currently massing in Myanmar's northwest, but analysts I've heard say
that the army is expected to do the same in other regions of the
country.

Sources:

• Myanmar: UN expert fears spike in atrocities amid reports of troops massing in north (OHCHR, United Nations, 23-Oct-2021)
  
• ASEAN / Myanmar decries move to block junta leader from regional summit (Reuters, 22-Oct-2021)
  
• ASEAN excludes Myanmar junta leader from summit in rare move (Reuters, 16-Oct-2021)
  
• UN fears ‘mass atrocity crimes’ in northern Myanmar (Al-Jazeera, 23-Oct-2021)
  
• Danger to stability in South Asia due to China’s ambitions, Sino-Pak nexus ‘anti-Indian’: Gen Rawat (Tribune India, 23-Oct-2021)
  
• Myanmar junta refuses to negotiate with coup dissidents (WIO, India, 23-Oct-2021)

Related Articles:

• Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads (24-Jun-2021)
  
  
• Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military (11-Apr-2021)
  
  
• Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war (29-Mar-2021)
  
  
• Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter (26-Sep-2007)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing,
ASEAN, Association of Southeast Nations,
Tom Andrews

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[John J. Xenakis]

** 23-Oct-2021 World View: Myanmar/Burma situation

The situation in Myanmar (Burma) has the potential to become pretty
significant.

A major war in Burma could spill over into China, Thailand and India.

If the buildup of troops and weapons really does lead to a mass
slaughter, it will illustrate the concept of a mass buildup by China
just prior to an invasion of Taiwan.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Oct-2021 World View: Disputes over the authenticity of the Bible

My book on Iran was about the history of Iran, and it was also about
the history of Islam and Christianity.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...s.irbk.htm
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

This post and the following post contain excerpts from my book.

**** Disputes over the authenticity of the Bible

Many people see both the Bible and the Koran as authentic texts that
were written millennia ago and are preserved in their original forms
today. Not surprisingly, these views are not correct, and it's
interesting to compare a little bit of the histories of the Bible and
the Koran.


The earliest copies of the Bible's Old Testament were written on
scrolls without vowels or accents. It wasn't until the 5th century AD
that Jewish scholars produced an official transcription of the Old
Testament, with vowels and accents. In the meantime, the Old
Testament was translated into ancient Greek in the 3rd and 2nd
centuries BC. These versions contained significant differences from
the versions produced by Jewish scholars. Other versions were in the
Aramaic and Syriac languages. However, all existing versions were
thrown into question and dispute in just the last 50 years, with the
discovery of the Dead Sea Scrolls, which are versions of the old
Testament books that were written prior to any of those just
described. On top of that, the Catholic and Protestant versions of
the Old Testament are different, so there is no agreement today on a
single version of the Old Testament.

With regard to the New Testament, different versions of the Gospels
and other books were used by various Christian communities for the
first four centuries AD. During the fourth century there were
extremely vitriolic political battles over which books would be in the
New Testament. Finally, in 367, a Bishop named Athanasius declared:
"In these [27 writings] alone the teaching of godliness is proclaimed.
No one may add to them, and nothing may be taken away from them." His
recommendations were adopted, and those 27 books were adopted as the
official New Testament.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Oct-2021 World View: Brief history of Catholic and Orthodox Christian 'Ecumenical' Councils

For the sake of comparison, we end this discussion of the Koran and
Sharia (Islamic) law with a brief history of the development of
Christian theology, and the numerous splits within Christian Churches.
For this serious reader this serves two purposes. First, it describes
several points of intersection between the developments of Islam and
Christianity. And second, it allows comparison and contrast between
how controversies and schisms are handled in the two religions.

**** The Ecumenical Councils

Christianity's first Ecumenical Council was held in 325 AD in Nicea,
an ancient city just east of today's Istanbul (Constantinople). The
Council of Nicea was a meeting of all Christian churches, led not by
the Pope but by the Emperor Caesar Flavius Constantine of Rome. The
objective of the meeting was to unify the different regional branches,
and to resolve some important questions.

At that time, many questions of Christian theology had not yet been
decided. One of the most important was the divinity of Jesus Christ.
If Jesus was born, then how could he be divine? Although there was
debate, the Council ratified the view that he was a man, but was God
in the form of human flesh.

The details of how it makes sense that Jesus was both human and divine
were extremely controversial. It was discussed further at the Second
Ecumenical Council in Constantinople in 381, again in the Third
Ecumenical Council, held in Ephesus, an Aegean sea port, in 431. By
the time of the Fourth Ecumenical Council, held in Chalcedon, near
Constantinople, in 451, the differences on this issue were extremely
vitriolic.

This was the time of the first major split within Christianity, as six
branches of Christianity refused to recognize the Fourth Ecumenical
Council, in a controversy that has never been resolved. Today, these
are usually called the "Oriental Orthodox Christian" churches,
comprised of the Ethiopian, Coptic (Egyptian), Armenian, Syrian,
Indian and Eritrean Churches. These were all churches that had
existed since apostolic times, and the major political issue was that
they didn't wish to be controlled by Rome. The Fifth Ecumenical
Council (in Constantinople in 553) and the Sixth Ecumenical Council
(in Constantinople in 680) attempted without success to resolve the
split.

**** The Seventh Ecumenical Council (787) - iconoclasts and iconophiles

The Seventh Ecumenical Council, in Nicea in 787, is the last one that
was recognized. At this one, the major controversy was was between
the "iconoclasts" and "iconophiles." "Iconoclast" means "image
smasher" or destroyer of religious icons and monuments. The
iconoclasts, who were outvoted, said that religious art was idolatry
and must be destroyed. If Jesus is divine, is it not sacrilegious to
worship an icon of Jesus as if it were Jesus himself? The iconophiles
loved icons, and argued that they were man's dynamic way of expressing
the divine through art and beauty. The latter argument won out.

The argument over icons was heavily influenced by the rise of Islam at
that time. The Charlie Hebdo terror attack in Paris in January 2015
was supposedly motivated by prohibited artistic representations of the
Prophet Mohammed, and this prohibition was coming into effect at the
time of the Seventh Ecumenical Council.

**** The Catholic vs Orthodox Christian schism (1054)

That was the last time there was sufficient unity in the Christian
churches to hold a worldwide Ecumenical Council, although there were
smaller regional meetings.

In 1054, the Pope in Rome sent a letter to the Patriarch of
Constantinople demanding that the latter submit to the Pope as head of
all the churches. The Patriarch refused, and so the Pope and the
Patriarch excommunicated each other on July 16, 1054. The "Schism of
1054" has never been healed.

Things got much worse in 1204 during the Crusades. The Catholics, on
their way to fighting the Muslims in Jerusalem, sacked Constantinople,
and placed a prostitute on the Emperor's throne at the church of
St. Sophia. It was not until 2001 when the Pope John Paul visited
Athens and, encountering large anti-Catholic protests, that the
Catholics apologized for the sacking of Constantinople, and made a
plea for forgiveness.

The Orthodox Christians were generally excluded from the Ecumenical
Councils held by the Catholics over the centuries, but they were
controversial nonetheless, even in modern times. The Second Vatican
Council held by the Catholics in 1962-65 created a new split within
the Catholic Church, when the Society of St. Pius X (SSPX) refused to
recognize the legitimacy of its edicts. Pope Francis is currently
working to heal this rift.

It was at the time of the Second Vatican Council that plans for an
Ecumenical Council of all the Orthodox Churches was announced in 1961.

So in view of that history, it should not be surprising to anyone that
the attempt to create a new Orthodox Christian Ecumenical Council, a
Great and Holy Council (GHC) of Eastern Orthodox Churches, announced
in 1961, has run into a great deal of controversy, as controversy has
always been the norm, since the beginning.


**** Universal versus regional religions

It's the norm for religions to target small regional or national
populations. You can be a "Catholic" anywhere in the world, but you
can't just be an "Orthodox Christian." You have to be "Orthodox
Christian" PLUS a nationality, such as a "Greek Orthodox" or a
"Russian Orthodox" or some other branch.

The same thing is true of the Protestant religion, which has about 20
different churches in the United States alone, each targeting a
different group.

In examining the history of religions, there are two conflicting
phenomena. One is that a regional religion "becomes viral" and
expands into a worldwide universal religion, and the other is that a
universal religion splinters into regional religions.

In the case of Christianity, Judaism was a local religion that
expanded into a more universal Christianity, and that splintered into
the Catholic religion, which became truly universal, and regional
Orthodox and Apostolic religions.

Islam has splintered into various sects, including Sunni Islam,
Shia Islam, and smaller sects, such as the Zaydis, Alawites and
Sufis. Only Sunni Islam has become truly universal.

The ancient Hindu religion has different sects and philosophies, but
the caste system restricted the religion to India. There was a
splintering in the form of Buddhism, which became a truly universal
religion.

There are only three religions that have "gone viral" and become
virtually universal: Catholicism, Sunni Islam and Buddhism. For
example, in China, you'll find plenty of Catholics, plenty of Sunni
Muslims, and plenty of Buddhists, but few Greek Orthodox or Shia
Muslims or Hindus.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Oct-2021 World View: Crisis war issues

Bob Butler" Wrote:> Meanwhile, what is understood about the crisis issues of America?
> What are the primary issues of the US Revolution, US Civil War,
> FDR’s time or today? What issues are supposedly good, true and
> honest? While I have identified some of the usual suspects, what
> issues do others consider important? Non-extant wars? The Big
> Lie? How confused is the conservative viewpoint?

> All I see are evasions, not attempts to explain what is really
> meant.

Revolutionary war: The conservatives were the loyalists who wanted to
remain with Britain. The revolutionaries wanted to split.

Civil War: The conservatives were the Democrats who wanted to assert
states' rights and continue slavery. The liberals were the
Republicans that ended slavery and granted freedom and equality to
everyone.

WW II: The conservatives were like Winston Churchill who wanted to
defend against the Nazis. The liberals were like Neville Chamberlain
who wanted ignore all dangers, and to continue relations with the
Nazis as usual.

Today: The conservatives want to defend against the Chinese Communists.
The liberals are corrupted by the Chinese, and want to ignore all
dangers, and to continue relations with the Chinese as usual.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Oct-2021 World View: End Times in Buddhism, Christianity and Shia Islam

The "End Times" theology is crucially important to
any religion. The reason is simple: A religion can't solve
people's problems today any more than a government can.
A religion can't solve poverty, street crime, marital problems, or
anything else. Just like a government, a religion can only tax
people, line their own pockets, and perhaps spend a little money
to help actual people.

So this means that nobody will actually join a religion voluntarily,
because the religion has nothing to offer. That's where "end times"
comes in. "If you join our religion, we'll screw you just like the
government, we'll get you to fight in our wars and perhaps get killed
(or martyred), and in return we'll promise you a reward in the next
life, when we won't even be around, so we won't even have to listen to
you whine."

The Chinese made a science out of using the afterlife to manipulate
people. Confucianism has been a disaster. The leader has a Mandate
from Heaven until something goes wrong, so when something goes wrong
the leader has to use violence against his oven people to keep them
in line. Buddhism spread in China because it promised an afterlife
in which the leader would be better off than the governing leader.

In my Vietnam book, I wrote brief summaries of the "end times"
in Buddhism, Christianity and Shia Islam:

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War:
How Vietnam became an economic powerhouse after the Vietnam War"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 4), March 2021
Paperback: 325 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...s.vnbk.htm
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Buddhi...732738645/

The following are excerpts from my Vietnam book:

**** Bodhisattvas in Mahayana Buddhism

The goal of every practitioner of Mahayana Buddhism is to escape the
endless cycle of birth, death and rebirth by becoming enlightened and
achieving Nirvana. However, some people, Bodhisattvas, achieve
enlightenment but choose to delay entering Nirvana by remaining in the
world to ensure the ultimate salvation of all sentient beings.
Compassion is much more than sympathy and extends even to giving one's
own life to save another. A bodhisattva actively helps others, sharing
intuitive wisdom, understanding, and strength with all those who are
seeking enlightenment.

In Sanskrit, the word “bodhisattva” is a compound word formed from
bodhi (spiritual awakening, enlightenment) and sattva (a being,
essence, spirit). The word can then be translated as “A being set
upon enlightenment,” “One whose essence is perfect knowledge,” or “A
being whose essence is enlightenment.”

In early Buddhism, bodhisattva meant “the previous lives of a (or the)
Buddha.” In Mahayana Buddhism, bodhisattva refers to a human being
committed to the attainment of enlightenment for the sake of
others. Becoming a bodhisattva is the goal of Mahayana Buddhism. By
introducing new Bodhisattvas, Mahayana Buddhism vastly increased the
range of objects of devotion for practitioners.

**** The Maitreya in Buddhism

There is a small part of Buddhist theology that is interesting to
Westerners because of its similarity to millennial beliefs in
Christianity and Shia Islam.

The Maitreya is the "future Buddha" in Buddhist theology, who many
Buddhists believe will eventually appear on earth, achieve complete
enlightenment, and teach the pure dharma. As such, he will be the
spiritual successor of the historic Buddha, and he is predicted to be
a "world ruler," uniting those over whom he has dominion.

The Maitreya represents the millennial aspirations of the vast
majority of the world's Buddhists, regardless of their particular
doctrinal orientations. It is thought that Maitreya’s coming will
occur after the current Buddha's teachings (the Dharma) are completely
forgotten and the world is left in a moral vacuum. At this time, the
enlightened Maitreya will descend from heaven and be reincarnated as a
human child.

The Maitreya belief in Buddhism is roughly equivalent to the Christian
belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Shia Muslim belief that
the "Hidden Imam" is going to return as the messiah to avenge
injustices to the Shia Muslim people.

Another similarity is that just as Christian cultists have at numerous
times predicted that the "second coming" was imminent, there have also
been Maitreya cultists, but in this case claiming to be the Maitreya
himself. One of the most well-known in modern times was L. Ron
Hubbard (1911 – 1986), founder of Dianetics and Scientology, who
suggested in a 1955 poem that he had the characteristics of the coming
Maitreya.

In China, a number of anti-government rebellions were led by someone
claiming to be the Maitreya. One of the most prominent was the 1351
Red Turban Rebellion (also known as the First White Lotus
Rebellion). Han Shantong, the leader of the White Lotus Society,
rebelled against the Mongol masters of the Yuan Dynasty. Shantong's
anti-Mongol slogan was "The empire is in utter chaos. Maitreya Buddha
has incarnated, and the Manichaean King of Light has appeared in this
world."