Generational Dynamics World View

[galaxy]

(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event
occurs, you won't have to ask.

This post has been much on my mind lately.

Sure looks like one, at least for the European 4T countries.

[Eric the Green]

(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event
occurs, you won't have to ask.

This post has been much on my mind lately.

Sure looks like one, at least for the European 4T countries.

We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy.

[galaxy]

(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event
occurs, you won't have to ask.

This post has been much on my mind lately.

Sure looks like one, at least for the European 4T countries.

We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy.

Not the same turning, but I'm beginning to feel like Ukraine is acquiring the same symbolism as West Berlin had.

Everyone's posting "слава україні" all over the internet now...it's not much of a stretch to imagine that, if there had been internet in 1963, those posts would have been "ich bin ein berliner."

The speed and universality of the spreading of this news is something to behold. Everyone is talking about it. People I know who are completely apolitical and barely follow news know all the details. Regardless of how this ends, there is something big happening in the 4T West. This is not going to fizzle out and is not going to be forgotten.

It's also interesting to watch the behaviors of countries around this. For the West, even though they're technically not involved, it's obviously a 4T war, while for Ukraine it's very clearly a 1T war* (and it's only becoming more clear that the US History analogy is the War of 1812). While the West continues to panic, Ukraine continues to respond with a truly incredible level of calm and unity.

It really does look like regeneracy has arrived in Europe. Suddenly all these countries are relearning how to do quick and decisive action. They are quickly losing the 3T apathy that they've held onto deep into this turning. There seems to be almost a feeling of these countries "rediscovering" that such a thing is possible by "following Ukraine's example." The sense of general powerlessness against crises that has pervaded Western populations and governments since the 4T began may be beginning to weaken, and not a moment too soon.


*Ukraine's 1T very clearly began following the revolution in 2014. Russia's 1T may have also begun in 2014, or it may have been a few years earlier, but certainly no earlier than 2008 - in any case, 2014 is when the 1T mood became firmly set in place in the country, anything preceding was some level of 4/1 hybrid.

And as another saecular note which some may find useful, the actual fighters are mostly Adaptives (all of those under age 35-40 or so), and Zelensky is a Civic (born 1978, an equivalent birth year in the USA's cycle would be around 1992 or 1910, roughly).

[pbrower2a]

Of course, incompetence by the Russian armed forces, at least in the ground is laughable. Soldiers not being told that their exercises near the border are an invasion? Motorized units and tanks running out of fuel in enemy territory? Unless this is some ruse, such shows grave incompetence of the Russian equivalent of the Commander-in-Chief.

This would all get failing grades at West Point. Even at the platoon level one knows that logistics can easily decide a battle. A unit that runs out of food,fuel, or munitions will either walk into POW pens or be mowed down. Putin called for this invasion on the spur of the moment.

Ukraine is likely ahead of most of the West. It has few supporters of the former kleptocratic dictator Yanukovich to mess things up.That's how things are at least toward the end of a Crisis Era in a country handling the Crisis well.Beware such societies as enemies. Such a potential rift as a two-Party system may do more to promote wise choices by a Churchill or FDR.

If this is a 1T war it eill end most likely as status quo ante bellum for boundaries.As for Putin he might consider that bungled wars of a leader's choosing are not good for long-term survival in that role.

[galaxy]

(02-27-2022, 11:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: If this is a 1T war it eill end most likely as status quo ante bellum for boundaries.As for Putin he might consider that bungled wars of a leader's choosing are not good for long-term survival in that role.

Not necessarily status quo ante bellum, just similar. The key elements of a 1T war are that there is not much change (though there is always some), all parties involved can plausibly claim victory or at least "lack of defeat" (and their populations are able to accept such a claim without doing too much mental gymnastics), and all parties involved are more 1T-ish after it than they were before it.

If I had to guess, a "Ukrainian victory" (as perceived by the West) would involve losing Donetsk and Luhansk (as well as Crimea, which was already lost), while remaining intact otherwise (and becoming much more closely connected to the West). Both sides will claim victory, with Ukraine probably declaring itself to be the victorious David to Russia's Goliath and probably dismissing the lost territory with a "whatever, they didn't even want to be here anyway," and Russia probably proclaiming the "liberation" of those regions while trying to sweep the incredibly incompetent invasion under the rug, probably with some kind of word salad like "we didn't actually want to invade all of Ukraine, we just wanted to look like we were going to, it was posturing that was necessary to liberate these regions" or something like that.

And Ukraine is already more 1T-ish now than it was a week ago, and was more 1T-ish then than it was a month before that. So that part is already done.

[Eric the Green]

(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event
occurs, you won't have to ask.

This post has been much on my mind lately.

Sure looks like one, at least for the European 4T countries.

We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy.

Not the same turning, but I'm beginning to feel like Ukraine is acquiring the same symbolism as West Berlin had.

Everyone's posting "слава україні" all over the internet now...it's not much of a stretch to imagine that, if there had been internet in 1963, those posts would have been "ich bin ein berliner."

The speed and universality of the spreading of this news is something to behold. Everyone is talking about it. People I know who are completely apolitical and barely follow news know all the details. Regardless of how this ends, there is something big happening in the 4T West. This is not going to fizzle out and is not going to be forgotten.

It's also interesting to watch the behaviors of countries around this. For the West, even though they're technically not involved, it's obviously a 4T war, while for Ukraine it's very clearly a 1T war* (and it's only becoming more clear that the US History analogy is the War of 1812). While the West continues to panic, Ukraine continues to respond with a truly incredible level of calm and unity.

It really does look like regeneracy has arrived in Europe. Suddenly all these countries are relearning how to do quick and decisive action. They are quickly losing the 3T apathy that they've held onto deep into this turning. There seems to be almost a feeling of these countries "rediscovering" that such a thing is possible by "following Ukraine's example." The sense of general powerlessness against crises that has pervaded Western populations and governments since the 4T began may be beginning to weaken, and not a moment too soon.


*Ukraine's 1T very clearly began following the revolution in 2014. Russia's 1T may have also begun in 2014, or it may have been a few years earlier, but certainly no earlier than 2008 - in any case, 2014 is when the 1T mood became firmly set in place in the country, anything preceding was some level of 4/1 hybrid.

And as another saecular note which some may find useful, the actual fighters are mostly Adaptives (all of those under age 35-40 or so), and Zelensky is a Civic (born 1978, an equivalent birth year in the USA's cycle would be around 1992 or 1910, roughly).

Ukraine is the Checkoslovakia of this 4T. The turnings are nearly universal now. But certainly this is 4T for the America/British saeculum, and Europe is almost the same or maybe a year or two behind the USA. This can only be a 4T event for Ukraine, if the turnings have any meaning. This is a fight for survival. Ukraine is on Europe's cycle now, not Russia's. But Russia doesn't really have turnings, because it is an authoritarian state that never changes or grows. The saeculum only occurs in countries that progress through the planetary dynamic.

[pbrower2a]

(02-28-2022, 12:26 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 11:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: If this is a 1T war it eill end most likely as status quo ante bellum for boundaries.As for Putin he might consider that bungled wars of a leader's choosing are not good for long-term survival in that role.

Not necessarily status quo ante bellum, just similar. The key elements of a 1T war are that there is not much change (though there is always some), all parties involved can plausibly claim victory or at least "lack of defeat" (and their populations are able to accept such a claim without doing too much mental gymnastics), and all parties involved are more 1T-ish after it than they were before it.

If I had to guess, a "Ukrainian victory" (as perceived by the West) would involve losing Donetsk and Luhansk (as well as Crimea, which was already lost), while remaining intact otherwise (and becoming much more closely connected to the West). Both sides will claim victory, with Ukraine probably declaring itself to be the victorious David to Russia's Goliath and probably dismissing the lost territory with a "whatever, they didn't even want to be here anyway," and Russia probably proclaiming the "liberation" of those regions while trying to sweep the incredibly incompetent invasion under the rug, probably with some kind of word salad like "we didn't actually want to invade all of Ukraine, we just wanted to look like we were going to, it was posturing that was necessary to liberate these regions" or something like that.

And Ukraine is already more 1T-ish now than it was a week ago, and was more 1T-ish then than it was a month before that. So that part is already done.

Russia already had Crimea, and the areas around Donetsk and Luhansk will retain their sketchy 'independence before pleading to join Russia through some sketchy process. Maybe some villages will be exchanged in border adjustments.

This may be much more important: the Putin dictatorship may have become brittle. The 4T may not yet be over in Russia. Putin was unable to stop anti-war protests that the regime deems illegal. Russia puts on an air of wealth, yet the people are mostly poor.

[galaxy]

(02-28-2022, 02:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event
occurs, you won't have to ask.

This post has been much on my mind lately.

Sure looks like one, at least for the European 4T countries.

We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy.

Not the same turning, but I'm beginning to feel like Ukraine is acquiring the same symbolism as West Berlin had.

Everyone's posting "слава україні" all over the internet now...it's not much of a stretch to imagine that, if there had been internet in 1963, those posts would have been "ich bin ein berliner."

The speed and universality of the spreading of this news is something to behold. Everyone is talking about it. People I know who are completely apolitical and barely follow news know all the details. Regardless of how this ends, there is something big happening in the 4T West. This is not going to fizzle out and is not going to be forgotten.

It's also interesting to watch the behaviors of countries around this. For the West, even though they're technically not involved, it's obviously a 4T war, while for Ukraine it's very clearly a 1T war* (and it's only becoming more clear that the US History analogy is the War of 1812). While the West continues to panic, Ukraine continues to respond with a truly incredible level of calm and unity.

It really does look like regeneracy has arrived in Europe. Suddenly all these countries are relearning how to do quick and decisive action. They are quickly losing the 3T apathy that they've held onto deep into this turning. There seems to be almost a feeling of these countries "rediscovering" that such a thing is possible by "following Ukraine's example." The sense of general powerlessness against crises that has pervaded Western populations and governments since the 4T began may be beginning to weaken, and not a moment too soon.


*Ukraine's 1T very clearly began following the revolution in 2014. Russia's 1T may have also begun in 2014, or it may have been a few years earlier, but certainly no earlier than 2008 - in any case, 2014 is when the 1T mood became firmly set in place in the country, anything preceding was some level of 4/1 hybrid.

And as another saecular note which some may find useful, the actual fighters are mostly Adaptives (all of those under age 35-40 or so), and Zelensky is a Civic (born 1978, an equivalent birth year in the USA's cycle would be around 1992 or 1910, roughly).

Ukraine is the Checkoslovakia of this 4T. The turnings are nearly universal now. But certainly this is 4T for the America/British saeculum, and Europe is almost the same or maybe a year or two behind the USA. This can only be a 4T event for Ukraine, if the turnings have any meaning. This is a fight for survival. Ukraine is on Europe's cycle now, not Russia's. But Russia doesn't really have turnings, because it is an authoritarian state that never changes or grows. The saeculum only occurs in countries that progress through the planetary dynamic.

We've been over this...any society with a concept of "history" and "generation" will have turnings. That's almost every society in the modern world except for literal hunter-gatherers. Russia and Ukraine are both 1T, with their 4Ts beginning in the late 1980s or early 1990s and lasting until 2014.

Here's a map:



The whole 1T region entered a 4T around the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union. They all exited the 4T sometime between roughly 2006 and 2014 (general trend: further west = entered 1T earlier).

*Algeria entered a 3T in 2011 while most of the Arab countries entered a 4T. I'm not sure exactly how it ended up almost exactly one full turning behind all of its neighbors as well as its former colonizer, but it's definitely there.
*Ireland is having what must be the mildest 4T in all of history.

[Eric the Green]

(02-28-2022, 04:08 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-28-2022, 02:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote: This post has been much on my mind lately.

Sure looks like one, at least for the European 4T countries.

We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy.

Not the same turning, but I'm beginning to feel like Ukraine is acquiring the same symbolism as West Berlin had.

Everyone's posting "слава україні" all over the internet now...it's not much of a stretch to imagine that, if there had been internet in 1963, those posts would have been "ich bin ein berliner."

The speed and universality of the spreading of this news is something to behold. Everyone is talking about it. People I know who are completely apolitical and barely follow news know all the details. Regardless of how this ends, there is something big happening in the 4T West. This is not going to fizzle out and is not going to be forgotten.

It's also interesting to watch the behaviors of countries around this. For the West, even though they're technically not involved, it's obviously a 4T war, while for Ukraine it's very clearly a 1T war* (and it's only becoming more clear that the US History analogy is the War of 1812). While the West continues to panic, Ukraine continues to respond with a truly incredible level of calm and unity.

It really does look like regeneracy has arrived in Europe. Suddenly all these countries are relearning how to do quick and decisive action. They are quickly losing the 3T apathy that they've held onto deep into this turning. There seems to be almost a feeling of these countries "rediscovering" that such a thing is possible by "following Ukraine's example." The sense of general powerlessness against crises that has pervaded Western populations and governments since the 4T began may be beginning to weaken, and not a moment too soon.


*Ukraine's 1T very clearly began following the revolution in 2014. Russia's 1T may have also begun in 2014, or it may have been a few years earlier, but certainly no earlier than 2008 - in any case, 2014 is when the 1T mood became firmly set in place in the country, anything preceding was some level of 4/1 hybrid.

And as another saecular note which some may find useful, the actual fighters are mostly Adaptives (all of those under age 35-40 or so), and Zelensky is a Civic (born 1978, an equivalent birth year in the USA's cycle would be around 1992 or 1910, roughly).

Ukraine is the Checkoslovakia of this 4T. The turnings are nearly universal now. But certainly this is 4T for the America/British saeculum, and Europe is almost the same or maybe a year or two behind the USA. This can only be a 4T event for Ukraine, if the turnings have any meaning. This is a fight for survival. Ukraine is on Europe's cycle now, not Russia's. But Russia doesn't really have turnings, because it is an authoritarian state that never changes or grows. The saeculum only occurs in countries that progress through the planetary dynamic.

We've been over this...any society with a concept of "history" and "generation" will have turnings. That's almost every society in the modern world except for literal hunter-gatherers. Russia and Ukraine are both 1T, with their 4Ts beginning in the late 1980s or early 1990s and lasting until 2014.

Here's a map:



The whole 1T region entered a 4T around the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union. They all exited the 4T sometime between roughly 2006 and 2014 (general trend: further west = entered 1T earlier).

*Algeria entered a 3T in 2011 while most of the Arab countries entered a 4T. I'm not sure exactly how it ended up almost exactly one full turning behind all of its neighbors as well as its former colonizer, but it's definitely there.
*Ireland is having what must be the mildest 4T in all of history.

That is a cool map. You do well with graphics and concepts. As usual I don't quite agree with them, although I don't claim to be right. We've been over this, but remember if you can my point, that a saeculum is a movement. All movement is from one place to another, and all movement travels in cycles. No vehicle can move unless it be perched upon a circular accessory. So, saecula exist in societies that are moving. The nation in question may go into reverse for a while, as the USA has for 40 years. But eventually they decide whether to keep moving or stop moving. When they stop, the hurricane has dissipated and lost steam and it loses its eye and becomes a mere tropical depression. That's what a saeculum is.

The word saeculum comes from Rome, because the 100-year cycle was detected and described by observers, and was celebrated in a great festival as a 1T began with the Pax Romana in the time of Caesar Augustus. There was some movement in society, and despite many slaves there, many common people participated in the affairs of state and society. Still, it was slow movement and slow progress by modern standards. It was like a level 1 hurricane. The empire replaced the republic in that very 1T, and the movement got more tepid and finally the societ was exhausted and the movement and the saeculum stopped.

In the Dark and Middle Ages, there was virtually no saeculum. S&H could not define one. Mike has tried, but the result is something in which turnings are rather vague and arbitrary. Dark and Middle Age society had no saeculum because it did not move anywhere. It did not progress. Children did what their fathers did. There were no generation gaps, and no difference between generations. So, no generation cycle. 

And this is a key point: hurricanes need to soak up a lot of water, and it needs to be warm. The saeculum got stronger in The West because more people were involved. As the Enlightenment and the Revolution brought down the barriers to most people participating, the saeculum speeded up from 100+ in the early Renaissance to 80-84 years. The first one to speed up was the one that ended with the Revolution; it lasted about 90. The second one ended in the Civil War; it may have been somewhat truncated as the North speeded up while the South stalled, and had to be forcefully joined to the northern saeculum. So, being a slave medieval society, it may not have even had a saeculum of its own.

The following two saeculum could be called level 4, very well-defined, with more and more people involved. The speed was a little faster than average too. Until neoliberalism and Reagan came in, that is. The saeculum has slowed in our recent third turning, which was 24 years long, and although some 4Ts are shorter and concentrated, ours will drag on as long as a typical turning of any kind. Or, it may never end.

Russia does not progress. It is stuck in authoritarian rule, and may never escape. Such societies are like ancient or medieval empires. The best they can hope for is a level one hurricane lasting 100 years or more. The best you can say about Russia is that it has had moments when a hurricane seemed to be forming, and then it falls apart again. The 1860s was some kind of awakening under tsar Alexander II. It was crushed in 1881 under Alexander III. It did not dissolve into cultural conflict between factions like a typical western 3T. It merely was repressed. Then came the great war and the Revolution. A 4T began in about 1902 that lasted for well over 40 years, without a single break. Following this was more stagnation. Some kind of awakening gradually took hold, climaxing in the 1990s. But since Putin took over, the seaculum has stalled again. It is not in any turning that I can discern, certainly not a 3T. It has just stalled ever since then, with no turning going on at all. I guess that's a bit better than saying it has no saeculum at all over these years since the 1860s, but certainly before then it never had any turning at all. And it just can't seem to get one going that continues consistently. It is not a modern nation. It is a creepy totalitarian stick in the mud and a menace to everyone else. No nation can be in a saeculum if the people are not allowed to participate in it, and in which no change occurs. Such nations, as in the Dark and Middle Ages in The West, do not have generations, because children just do what their fathers did and there's no upward mobility. In most cases, there are only two generations even alive in these societies, due to shorter life spans--- which ironically lengthens the turnings.

That is the danger that we face in the USA too. Our neoliberal 3T has not entirely ended, and we have not faced up to our Crisis. We have an almost 80-year old president, the only viable leader available to us, who is trying feebly to push and push and get the wheels moving again. But so far he can't seem to get it beyond some potholes in the road, especially a pothole named Joe Manchin. But the window for possible action on the climate emergency is closing. We have this decade only left to stave off tipping points to hothouse earth, and nothing to look forward to but continued disaster and decline after then if we don't act now. All the result of the neoliberal bullshit that Americans sheepishly followed into the ditch during the late 2T and 3T. The vehicle of the saeculum, the movement of the hurricane, is still stalled in this ditch.

[pbrower2a]

(03-01-2022, 11:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-28-2022, 04:08 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-28-2022, 02:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy.

Not the same turning, but I'm beginning to feel like Ukraine is acquiring the same symbolism as West Berlin had.

Everyone's posting "слава україні" all over the internet now...it's not much of a stretch to imagine that, if there had been internet in 1963, those posts would have been "ich bin ein berliner."

The speed and universality of the spreading of this news is something to behold. Everyone is talking about it. People I know who are completely apolitical and barely follow news know all the details. Regardless of how this ends, there is something big happening in the 4T West. This is not going to fizzle out and is not going to be forgotten.

It's also interesting to watch the behaviors of countries around this. For the West, even though they're technically not involved, it's obviously a 4T war, while for Ukraine it's very clearly a 1T war* (and it's only becoming more clear that the US History analogy is the War of 1812). While the West continues to panic, Ukraine continues to respond with a truly incredible level of calm and unity.

It really does look like regeneracy has arrived in Europe. Suddenly all these countries are relearning how to do quick and decisive action. They are quickly losing the 3T apathy that they've held onto deep into this turning. There seems to be almost a feeling of these countries "rediscovering" that such a thing is possible by "following Ukraine's example." The sense of general powerlessness against crises that has pervaded Western populations and governments since the 4T began may be beginning to weaken, and not a moment too soon.


*Ukraine's 1T very clearly began following the revolution in 2014. Russia's 1T may have also begun in 2014, or it may have been a few years earlier, but certainly no earlier than 2008 - in any case, 2014 is when the 1T mood became firmly set in place in the country, anything preceding was some level of 4/1 hybrid.

And as another saecular note which some may find useful, the actual fighters are mostly Adaptives (all of those under age 35-40 or so), and Zelensky is a Civic (born 1978, an equivalent birth year in the USA's cycle would be around 1992 or 1910, roughly).

Ukraine is the Checkoslovakia of this 4T. The turnings are nearly universal now. But certainly this is 4T for the America/British saeculum, and Europe is almost the same or maybe a year or two behind the USA. This can only be a 4T event for Ukraine, if the turnings have any meaning. This is a fight for survival. Ukraine is on Europe's cycle now, not Russia's. But Russia doesn't really have turnings, because it is an authoritarian state that never changes or grows. The saeculum only occurs in countries that progress through the planetary dynamic.

We've been over this...any society with a concept of "history" and "generation" will have turnings. That's almost every society in the modern world except for literal hunter-gatherers. Russia and Ukraine are both 1T, with their 4Ts beginning in the late 1980s or early 1990s and lasting until 2014.

Here's a map:



The whole 1T region entered a 4T around the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union. They all exited the 4T sometime between roughly 2006 and 2014 (general trend: further west = entered 1T earlier).

*Algeria entered a 3T in 2011 while most of the Arab countries entered a 4T. I'm not sure exactly how it ended up almost exactly one full turning behind all of its neighbors as well as its former colonizer, but it's definitely there.
*Ireland is having what must be the mildest 4T in all of history.

That is a cool map. You do well with graphics and concepts. As usual I don't quite agree with them, although I don't claim to be right. We've been over this, but remember if you can my point, that a saeculum is a movement. All movement is from one place to another, and all movement travels in cycles. No vehicle can move unless it be perched upon a circular accessory. So, saecula exist in societies that are moving. The may go into reverse for a while, as the USA has for 40 years. But eventually they decide whether to keep moving or stop moving. When they stop, the hurricane has dissipated and lost steam and it loses its eye and becomes a mere tropical depression. That's what a saeculum is.

The word saeculum comes from Rome, because the 100-year cycle was detected and described by observers, and was celebrated in a great festival as a 1T began with the Pax Romana in the time of Caesar Augustus. There was some movement in society, and despite many slaves there, many common people participated in the affairs of state and society. Still, it was slow movement and slow progress by modern standards. It was like a level 1 hurricane. The empire replaced the republic in that very 1T, and the movement got more tepid and finally the societ was exhausted and the movement and the saeculum stopped.

In the Dark and Middle Ages, there was virtually no saeculum. S&H could not define one. Mike has tried, but the result is something in which turnings are rather vague and arbitrary. Dark and Middle Age society had no saeculum because it did not move anywhere. It did not progress. Children did what their fathers did. There were no generation gaps, and no difference between generations. So, no generation cycle. 

And this is a key point: hurricanes need to soak up a lot of water, and it needs to be warm. The saeculum got stronger in The West because more people were involved. As the Enlightenment and the Revolution brought down the barriers to most people participating, the saeculum speeded up from 100+ in the early Renaissance to 80-84 years. The first one to speed up was the one that ended with the Revolution; it lasted about 90. The second one ended in the Civil War; it may have been somewhat truncated as the North speeded up while the South stalled, and had to be forcefully joined to the northern saeculum. So, being a slave medieval society, it may not have even had a saeculum of its own.

You have a suggestion of why the former Confederacy took so long to escape the impediment of its past. The people in best position in which to repudiate that past were the Freedmen who had no ties to the past. They were forming commercial and educational institutions and even exercising political power -- except that such was crushed. Fifty years or so after the Civil War the complete destruction of such activity appeared in the formation of the Second Klan (which had many of the characteristics of Italian fascists and German Nazis before those demonic causes came into existence). This is the time in which the bulk of the Confederate statues went up, symbolizing the complete and utter defeat of the hopes of Southern blacks.

Southern whites could define the New Deal "for Whites only" in an Apartheid-like system about a decade before Apartheid arose in South Africa. That's one way in which to 'stunt growth'. World War II would challenge that and establish the seeds of destruction of that order. America was fighting for its life against a racist slave system. Black soldiers returned after having proved themselves competent fighters. Northerners who usually avoided the South as boring and depressing 'discovered' Florida, but had to go by car on surface roads like US-1, US-17, US-19, US-23, US-27, US-31 (only to Montgomery), and US-41 through "Kukluxistan". To be sure, many of those who went by road were relatively old and were in too much of a rush to confront it, but they did tell their kids.

Knowing that a disproportionate number of the white people who would eventually challenge the practices of "Kukluxistan" were Jewish, I can just imagine some of the travelers' tales.

Aside from the less-consequential stories of tourist traps in Florida and giving a warning to keep the family dog out of reach of alligators who exploit the aggression of the top predator of the northeastern quadrant of the United States



(In a violent confrontation with one of these, you lose, so it is above us in the food chain; for a large predator that potentially has Man on the menu, all that keeps us safe from these fellows is good behavior. Ours and theirs. Who tamed whom?)


to turn dogs into dinner came stories of separate waiting areas, "NO COLORED PERSONS SERVED HERE", and substandard living conditions (poor for most whites and horrible for blacks), and the heavy use of a certain abominable word in contrast to the then-neutral word in Yiddish (it is the literal translation of the German word for "black", as Yiddish is really a German dialect)... their kids were more judgmental. That fueled the Civil Rights struggle. Only after its success could the American South join the gentlemen's club, so to speak.


The following two saeculum could be called level 4, very well-defined, with more and more people involved. The speed was a little faster than average too. Until neoliberalism and Reagan came in, that is. The saeculum has slowed in our recent third turning, which was 24 years long, and although some 4Ts are shorter and concentrated, ours will drag on as long as a typical turning of any kind. Or, it may never end.

Quote:Russia does not progress. It is stuck in authoritarian rule, and may never escape. Such societies are like ancient or medieval empires. The best they can hope for is a level one hurricane lasting 100 years or more. The best you can say about Russia is that it has had moments when a hurricane seemed to be forming, and then it falls apart again. The 1860s was some kind of awakening under tsar Alexander II. It was crushed in 1881 under Alexander III. It did not dissolve into cultural conflict between factions like a typical western 3T. It merely was repressed. Then came the great war and the Revolution. A 4T began in about 1902 that lasted for well over 40 years, without a single break. Following this was more stagnation. Some kind of awakening gradually took hold, climaxing in the 1990s. But since Putin took over, the seaculum has stalled again. It is not in any turning that I can discern, certainly not a 3T. It has just stalled ever since then, with no turning going on at all. I guess that's a bit better than saying it has no saeculum at all over these years since the 1860s, but certainly before then it never had any turning at all. And it just can't seem to get one going that continues consistently. It is not a modern nation. It is a creepy totalitarian stick in the mud and a menace to everyone else. No nation can be in a saeculum if the people are not allowed to participate in it, and in which no change occurs.

I wouldn't be so sure. I have suggested that smart and curious American youth learn Russian and imbibe deeply into Russian intellectual life, and I do not take that statement back. Surely you saw the 2014 Winter Olympics, probably most memorable for the pageantry of the opening ceremony. We Americans are reminded that Serge Rachmaninov and Igor Stravinsky aren't "ours". Putin is about the same age as Nicolae Ceausescu was at the end of twenty years of tyranny. In democracies, very old leaders like Churchill in the 1950's and Biden today know that there is much  that they can't get away with. Putin has been surrounded by yes-men at a time in which his judgment and rational processes fail him. The great figures of Russia in science, art, music, and literature have shown that Russia can do much right. Politics and economics? Not so much.

The political and economic heritage of Russia can change rapidly and even suddenly. So it was in the American South.

Quote: That is the danger that we face in the USA too. Our neoliberal 3T has not entirely ended, and we have not faced up to our Crisis. We have an almost 80-year old president, the only viable leader available to us, who is trying feebly to push and push and get the wheels moving again. But so far he can't seem to get it beyond some potholes in the road, especially a pothole named Joe Manchin. But the window for possible action on the climate emergency is closing. We have this decade only left to stave off tipping points to hothouse earth, and nothing to look forward to but continued disaster and decline after then if we don't act now. All the result of the neoliberal bullshit that Americans sheepishly followed into the ditch during the late 2T and 3T. The vehicle of the saeculum, the movement of the hurricane, is still stalled in this ditch.

"Our" economic elites have done everything possible to commit us to a perpetual 3T as a time of increasing depravity in commerce, culture, and politics. It can be lucrative, but it is still rot. Those elites are out of touch with realities that can and will hit them hard because those elites can shield themselves from the effects. They will not be the peasant farmers of Bangladesh who will lose their livelihood feeding textile workers who might be their cousins. They will not be the ones who must watch their backs as middle-class certainties give way to the perils of the ghetto. (That's not racial; some white people are becoming quite "ghetto" in behavior even if they have not abandoned "whiteness". I'll avoid meth and opioid addicts irrespective of ethnicity). They will have overseas bank accounts safe from expropriative taxation.


OK, Biden stumbled on some words in his State of the Union Address last night (March 1)...but with a few adjustments we get the idea, plain and clear. It is a call for a new way of life well rooted in the best that America has been. Much of our problem is crony capitalism, and if you want to know how bad crony capitalism is when it permeates everything, just look at Russia. Just look at the cost of insulin for Type-I diabetics.

Much of a 4T is the squeezing out of bad habits, many of those arising from the recent 3T. Neoliberal economics is one of the bad habits that must die.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Mar-22 World View -- Asian politics confounded by Russia's debacle invasion of Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's invasion of Ukraine far from resolution
  
• Russia's invasion a shock to the Chinese Communists
  
• South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right
  
• The Regeneracy
  
• The future of Generational Dynamics
  

****
**** Russia's invasion of Ukraine far from resolution
****


Ukraine.  In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea.  In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was supposed to succeed within a
few days, is currently looking like a debacle.

Russia's president Vladimar Putin ordered hundreds of thousands of
troops into the battle, along with tanks, artillery, warplanes, and
dozens of warships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to Ukraine's
south.

Russia is conducting massive genocide and war crimes, bombing and
flattening innocent women and children in one village after another
causing enormous suffering, specifically targeting schools and
hospitals, driving millions of refugees into neighboring countries --
for no discernible reason at all except the sociopathic genocidal mind
of Putin.

Russia has become an international pariah state, condemned by 141
countries in the United Nations General Assembly, with 23 abstentions
(including China), and only five countries opposing the condemnation:
North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria, and Russia itself.  Thanks to
international sanctions, Russia's economy is becoming increasingly
distressed.

While Putin is being condemned as an international war criminal,
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being viewed as a
"Churchillian hero," starting with his refusal to flee the country in
the way that Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani had fled.

The Ukrainian people have turned out to be extremely resilient, much
more so than anyone expected, after Russia had simply rolled over
Crimea in 2014.  They've prevented Russian troops from taking control
of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and other large cities that Russia has attacked,
and so far Kiev has remained out of reach.

The Ukrainians have killed hundreds of Russians, destroyed dozens of
tanks, and shot down tens of Russian warplanes.

This does not mean that Russia will be defeated.  Far from it.
Vladimir Putin has a history of reacting to losses by using
increasingly horrific war crimes.  In Syria, Russia sent missiles into
school dormitories to kill children, or dropped barrel bombs laden
with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on
civilian neighborhoods, or using Sared gas to kill large groups of
people.  The barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons specifically
targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill as many
women and children as possible, Since chlorine gas is heavier than
air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking women and
children out into the open, where they can be targeted by missiles and
gunfire.

As Putin becomes increasingly desperate, he is expected to increasingly
horrific violence, including the tactics used in Syria and in Chechnya.
If he becomes desperate enough, it's even possible he'll resort
to tactical nuclear weapons.

However, even if he manages to kill
Zelenskyy and subdue the country, the battle will be far from over.
An occupation army of a couple of hundred thousand people is not
nearly enough to fight an insurgency in a country of 44 million
people.  Furthermore, there will be millions of Ukrainian refugees
in neighboring countries who will be prepared to do what they can
to defeat the Russian occupancy.  This would be extremely expensive
for Russia to sustain, and it's not believed he could do so for long.

****
**** Russia's invasion a shock to the Chinese Communists
****

China and Russia have been historic enemies, with the Chinese and
Russian people hating each other, but the two countries have been
united by their common enemies, the United States and the West.
Nonetheless, China has found it impossible to give a full-throated
endorsement to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  China is a close ally of
Ukraine, and has invested heavily in Ukraine.

I've previously described long-term delusional geopolitical strategy
of the Chinese Communists to gain hegemony over the entire world.
This analysis was based on a CCP newsletter forwarded to me by a web
site reader.  (See "16-Dec-20 World View -- China's delusional geopolitical strategy"
)

Guided by China's leadership, countries throughout Africa, Asia and
the Mideast will put aside their disagreements.  Old hatreds will be
mended by necessity, to attract capital for investments.  These
include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan.  China
will create a "global colossal," of dozens of countries in a massive
multi-country partnership, bound together by China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI).

The plan specifies concessions to be made by one nation after another
to "mend old hatreds," but it doesn't contain a single example of
China making any concession whatsoever.

According to the CCP newsletter: "The big question is how America will
respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through
trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The
choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it.
If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between
America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and
Russia."

This whole delusional fantasy strategy has been torn apart by
Russia's Ukraine invasion.  The Chinese Communists had assumed
that the world would welcome Chinese hegemony, but it's clear
that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would also make China as
much a pariah as Russia is.  The whole strategy of using BRI to
make the world love China has been shown to be ridiculous,
even to the delusional Chinese Communists.

Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that Xi Jinping and the
Chinese Communists will abandon their
plans of world domination.  To the contrary, the Chinese Communists
will be a desperate, and will adopt the most
horrific tactics, including a nuclear weapons attack on the
United States.  China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for
years, and is too well invested in that goal to abandon it.
Furthermore, China has been preparting a nuclear attack on America
for decades, and will launch it as a time of its choosing.

****
**** South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right
****


Yoon Suk-yeol, leader of the People's Power Party (NY Post)

Former prosecutor and conservative Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power
Party won South Korea's presidential election on Wednesday, defeating
the liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, which had
formerly been led by the incumbent president Moon Jae-in.  Yoon will
take office on May 10.

Yoon is expected to take a harsher line towards China and North Korea
than did his predecessor Moon, and is expected to be more closely
aligned with US policy than Moon.  For example, Yoon has voiced a need
to deploy another American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad)
anti-missile system to deter North Korea. The 2016 installation of the
first Thaad battery in South Korea triggered massive economic
retaliation from China that lasted nearly two years.

By the way, Yoon has developed a reputation for being a "non-woke"
politician.  His wife, Kim Keon-hee, has been attacked by feminist
activists for criticizing sexual harassment "opportunists."

****
**** The Regeneracy
****

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have undoubtedly been shocked at the
unity of the international community to Russia's invasion of campaign.
Putin certainly expected to take advantage of a split among the
countries of Nato, but now the Nato countries seem completely unified.
Even Germany will be sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, in a major
reversal of policy.

This is the generational theory "Regeneracy" that I've been talking
about for years.  I've been writing about it domestically, as the
regeneracy of civic unity, where Americans put political differences
aside and unite against the common enemy.  Today we're seeing the same
thing internationally, as countries around the world unite against
Russia.

The regeneracy has also united Western-linked countries in Asia.
South Korea's election aligns it more closely with America.  Japan has
strongly condemned Russia's invasion, and has announced that it will
end "peace talks" about the Kuril Islands dispute.

The interesting political battle in the next few months will be over
energy.  So-called "green" policies in America and Europe have been an
absolutely disaster, as they've made Europe much more dependent on
Russia, and they've raised oil prices so that America and Europe are
funding Russia's war in Ukraine.  There is enormous pressure from both
Republicans and Democrats on the Biden administration to abandon the
disastrous "green" policies, and the abandonment of those policies
will be a major sign of the regeneracy in domestic politics.

In my opinion, the US will try to stay out of this European war, just
as the US at first stayed out of the European wars in 1914 and 1939.
The US was able to stay out of those wars for 2-3 years.  In my
opinion, the European war will trigger a full-scale world war within a
few months or at most a couple of years, with the exact timing
dependent on China's actions, especially in Taiwan.

****
**** The future of Generational Dynamics
****

I am 77 years old, soon to be 78, and I have absolutely no desire to
even try to live through World War III.  I'm miserable, depressed, in
intermitten pain, alone, surviving on Social Security, and disgusted
with the Cassandra Curse, which says that I'm treated abusively, even
when (or especially when) I'm right.

Twenty years ago I began developing Generational Dynamics, a
methodology for analyzing historical and current events, based on
Forrester's System Dynamics from MIT applied to generational flows,
and incorporating Chaos Theory and technology forecasting.  My web
sites, generationaldynamics.com and gdxforum.com, contain over 6,000 articles with thousands of analyses
and predictions about hundreds of countries, and they've all come true
or are trending true.  None has been proven wrong.  In addition, I've
written four books on the history of Iran, China and Vietnam, and the
history and theology of Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism,
Confucianism and Daoism.  The major prediction over the last 20 years
has been that we are headed for a global financial crisis and a world
war against China.  That time is now approaching.  The Russia-Ukraine
war is just beginning, and it is expected to cause a chain reaction
that will lead to a major European war, and within the next year or so
to a world war and a global depression.  Nuclear weapons will be used.

I published four books, thinking that they would create some sort of
legacy that would survive me.  And they're really good books, in my
opinion.  I'm really proud of them.  You would think by this time,
they would have generated some interest somewhere, but they haven't.
I've only sold a few dozen copies of each.

I apologize for writing so few articles these last few months.  I
simply no longer have the energy to write as much as I used to,
especially in view of the Cassandra Curse.  However, I do try to
contribute something to the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum.  Nonetheless, Generational Dynamics may be reaching
the end of the line.

After I'm gone, very few people will even remember Generational
Dynamics, and many of them will remember it only with scorn and
derision as the invention of an old Boomer fossil.  There will be
nobody whose selary depends on keeping Generation Dynamics alive, so
Generational Dynamics will die with me.

That's why I'm extending an invitation to any individuals, think
tanks, universities, or other organizations that would like to take on
the responsibility on further development of Generational Dynamics.
There's wealth of information on my books and on my web sites.
Furthermore, I am available right now to provide guidance and even to
give a professional or college course over zoom.  So this is the right
time.

Sources:

• Justice icon Yoon Suk-yeol elected new South Korea president, but rocky road ahead (Straits Times, Singapore, 9-Mar-2022)
  
• Yoon to bolster cooperation with U.S., Japan in dealing with China, N. Korea (Yonhap, South Korea, 10-Mar-2022)
  
• South Korea elects opposition conservative Yoon Suk Yeol to be next president (CNN, 9-Mar-2022)
  
• South Korea elects new president Yoon Suk-yeol after nasty race (NY Post, 9-Mar-2022)
  
• What conservative Yoon Seok-yeol's win as South Korea's president means for US-North Korea relations (ABC News, 9-Mar-2022)
  
• Anti-feminist political novice: South Korea's new president Yoon (France24, 9-Mar-2022)
  
• Why some say South Korea's new President Yoon Suk-yeol is 'like Trump' (The Week, London, 9-Mar-2022)
  
• Yoon Suk-yeol wins South Korea’s presidential election (Al-Jazeera, 9-Mar-2022)
  

Related Articles:

• China's delusional geopolitical strategy (16-Dec-2020)
  
  
• Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants (09-Nov-2021)
  
  
• Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine (19-Apr-2021)
  
  
• Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion (02-Apr-2021)
  
  
• Ukraine and Turkey develop closer relationship amid Russia's aggression (05-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, China, Xi Jinping, Taiwan,
North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria,
Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani,  Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kiev,
South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol,  People Power Party,
Lee Jae-myung, Moon Jae-in, Democratic Party,
Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD,
The Regeneracy

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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[freivolk]

(02-28-2022, 04:08 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-28-2022, 02:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote: This post has been much on my mind lately.

Sure looks like one, at least for the European 4T countries.

We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy.

Not the same turning, but I'm beginning to feel like Ukraine is acquiring the same symbolism as West Berlin had.

Everyone's posting "слава україні" all over the internet now...it's not much of a stretch to imagine that, if there had been internet in 1963, those posts would have been "ich bin ein berliner."

The speed and universality of the spreading of this news is something to behold. Everyone is talking about it. People I know who are completely apolitical and barely follow news know all the details. Regardless of how this ends, there is something big happening in the 4T West. This is not going to fizzle out and is not going to be forgotten.

It's also interesting to watch the behaviors of countries around this. For the West, even though they're technically not involved, it's obviously a 4T war, while for Ukraine it's very clearly a 1T war* (and it's only becoming more clear that the US History analogy is the War of 1812). While the West continues to panic, Ukraine continues to respond with a truly incredible level of calm and unity.

It really does look like regeneracy has arrived in Europe. Suddenly all these countries are relearning how to do quick and decisive action. They are quickly losing the 3T apathy that they've held onto deep into this turning. There seems to be almost a feeling of these countries "rediscovering" that such a thing is possible by "following Ukraine's example." The sense of general powerlessness against crises that has pervaded Western populations and governments since the 4T began may be beginning to weaken, and not a moment too soon.


*Ukraine's 1T very clearly began following the revolution in 2014. Russia's 1T may have also begun in 2014, or it may have been a few years earlier, but certainly no earlier than 2008 - in any case, 2014 is when the 1T mood became firmly set in place in the country, anything preceding was some level of 4/1 hybrid.

And as another saecular note which some may find useful, the actual fighters are mostly Adaptives (all of those under age 35-40 or so), and Zelensky is a Civic (born 1978, an equivalent birth year in the USA's cycle would be around 1992 or 1910, roughly).

Ukraine is the Checkoslovakia of this 4T. The turnings are nearly universal now. But certainly this is 4T for the America/British saeculum, and Europe is almost the same or maybe a year or two behind the USA. This can only be a 4T event for Ukraine, if the turnings have any meaning. This is a fight for survival. Ukraine is on Europe's cycle now, not Russia's. But Russia doesn't really have turnings, because it is an authoritarian state that never changes or grows. The saeculum only occurs in countries that progress through the planetary dynamic.

We've been over this...any society with a concept of "history" and "generation" will have turnings. That's almost every society in the modern world except for literal hunter-gatherers. Russia and Ukraine are both 1T, with their 4Ts beginning in the late 1980s or early 1990s and lasting until 2014.

Here's a map:



The whole 1T region entered a 4T around the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union. They all exited the 4T sometime between roughly 2006 and 2014 (general trend: further west = entered 1T earlier).

*Algeria entered a 3T in 2011 while most of the Arab countries entered a 4T. I'm not sure exactly how it ended up almost exactly one full turning behind all of its neighbors as well as its former colonizer, but it's definitely there.
*Ireland is having what must be the mildest 4T in all of history.

No, sorry, you are wrong. Russia and Eastern Europe are not in a 1T, they are like the West still in th 4T. The Russian-Ukranian War is  a 4T-war. Russia has just the problem, that it started the war with a 3T-army. All of Eastern Europe (including Russia and East Germany) having the same internal conflict between western liberalism and a  nationalistic authoritism. The other side of the crisis is, that Russia tries to restore his status as a Superpower
The war is part of this, but also allows Putin to liquidate the remains of western liberalism in Russia and the reestablishment of a totalitarian system.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I vaguely recall this having been discussed before....if things go very badly, it is possible for events to force an off-Cycle 4T on a country. I suspect that, whatever turning the Cycle suggests, Ukraine is now 4T.

[Tim Randal Walker]

John, I'm sorry that things are going poorly for you. I do appreciate your analysis of world events.

[pbrower2a]

I've been paying much attention to the Michigan plot, the plot to kidnap the Governor and put her at extreme. if ill-defined, risk. From what I have seen of the excerpted testimony and news coverage, the plotters seem to be lamentable characters.

I'll wait until verdicts are announced to say more.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 02-Apr-2022 World View: Thanks

(04-01-2022, 12:00 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: >   John, I'm sorry that things are going poorly for you.  I do
>   appreciate your analysis of world events.

Thanks, Tim.  I appreciate your remarks.

I've been pleasantly surprised by the number of people who have
written to me to wish me well, and to tell me how valuable my articles
have been by providing a non-ideological explanation of what's
actually going on in the world.  By applying modern generational
theory to current events, I've apparently filled a very important need
for a few thousand people, much more than I previously realized.  It
makes me want to go on, as best as I can.

Thanks again.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Apr-22 World View -- History and future of the Russia-Ukraine war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Status of Russia-Ukraine war
  
• Army culture and skill sets
  
• The Mfecane war (1820s)
  
• Vietnam war
  
• Russia's history of crisis and non-crisis wars
  
• Russia's incompetence in the Ukraine invasion
  
• Russia's Winter War invasion of Finland (1939)
  
• Operation Barbarossa (1941), Hitler's invasion of Russia
  
• Russia's invasion of Ukraine
  
• The Regeneracy in Europe, Russia and America
  
• A word of thanks
  

****
**** Status of Russia-Ukraine war
****


Map of Russia-Ukraine war, status on April 2, 2022 (Al-Jazeera)

The purpose of this article is to provide a historical analysis of
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in order to forecast what is most likely
to come next.

Russia has been conducting numerous war crimes, making indiscriminate
attacks on civilians and residential neighborhoods, flattening
villages and cities with illegal cluster bombs, illegal cassette bombs
and illegal thermobaric bombs. Russia hasn't yet begun using illegal
chemical weapons, as they used in Syria and Chechnya, but that's
presumably coming.

There are now some ten million displaced people in Ukraine who have
lost their homes. Three million refugees have flooded into
neighboring countries, including Poland, Hungary and Romania.

Russia is supposedly withdrawing some forces from around Kiev into the
Donbase in the east, near the border with Russia. Many analysts
believe that they're being redeployed in preparation for a new assault
on Kiev.

****
**** Army culture and skill sets
****

The most common opinion among military analysts is that the Russian
army botched the war, and has been shown to be incompetent. This is
the subject that I want to explore in detail in this article.

I'd like to address the skill sets possessed by an army, and the
societal culture from which the army comes.

Suppose you have an expert gardener. She came from parents who valued
gardening, and raised her to develop powerful gardening skills.

Now suppose you have an expect carpenter. He came from parents who
valued carpentry, and raised him to develop powerful carpentry skills.

Now ask the gardener to do carpentry, and ask the carpenter to do
gardening. Both will do a poor job, and may be totally baffled. You
can train them to do their new jobs, but the training will take many
months, but even after training they won't do their new jobs well,
since they lack the cultural background to do so.

I'm going to make the argument that Russia's army has the skills and
culture to be effective within Russia, as in defending against
Napoleon and Hitler, but does not have the skills and culture to be
effective in an expeditionary war, as is currently occurring in
Ukraine. Before making that argument, I'll give some examples.

****
**** The Mfecane war (1820s)
****

The first example is the Mfecane war ("the crushing") of the 1820s in
southern Africa, a remarkable example of how a leader can change the
skills and culture of an army, and turn it into a formidable
expeditionary fighting force.

The southern portion of Africa in the first decades of the 1800s was
a region in great turmoil, with many different populations competing
for resources.

Among the indigenous populations, the Zulus were an obscure tribe in
the Transvaal, the northern portion of what is now South Africa. The
Zulus went from obscurity to world renown as a result of Shaka, born
in 1787, who became the tribal chief in 1816, and who took
the Zulu from being a tribe to being an empire.

Standard practice in tribal wars of the time was that the fighters of
each warring tribe would throw long spears from a distance at the
fighters of the other tribe. Shaka changed both the skills and the
culture by having his fighters carry short spears, requiring them to
attack the other fighters are close range. Shaka revolutionized
tribal warfare with these new kinds of spears and warfare techniques,
resulting in the deaths of millions of indigenous Africans, by the
time the war climaxed in 1828. Shaka's Zulu Empire left behind vast
uninhabited regions by obliterating the populations that used to live
there.

The great Zulu Empire lasted for decades, until it was destroyed by
the British in 1879 in the bloody Anglo-Zulu war. At the climax of
that crisis war, the Zulus were dispersed, and the Zulu nation
ended.

****
**** Vietnam war
****

A reader expressed surprise that the Russians have had more casualties
in one month than the Americans had in the entire Vietnam war.
Actually, this isn't surprising at all.

A basic tenet of the American culture is that each individual human
life is valuable, and is worthy of saving and protecting. So it's not
surprising that the American armed forces placed a very high priority
on reducing casualties, with the result that American casualties were
low during the Vietnam war.

The Americans had developed plenty of skills for fighting
expeditionary wars. They had fought the Nazis and Imperial Japanese
during World War II, and so by the time of the Vietnam War, they had
developed powerful doctrines for winning wars with few casualties.
That is the American culture.

The North Vietnamese and Chinese cultures are very different. They
place very little value on an individual human life. The result was
different battle tactics that led to many casualties. During the
Vietnam and Korean wars, they used human wave tactics, which means
that they used an infantry of hundreds or thousands of soldiers,
attacking a well-defended enemy position, intended to overwhelm the
enemy by sheer weight of numbers and regardless of inevitable high
casualties.

This cultural difference actually gave the North Vietnamese a big
tactical advantage during the Vietnam War. The North Vietnamese could
suffer huge numbers of casualties and win because Americans did not
want to suffer even a few casualties.

In my recent book, "World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam
War," I quoted Bui Diem, Saigon's Ambassador to Washington from 1967
to 1972, who gave his assessment of why America lost the war. He
emphasized the cultural differences between the American and
Vietnamese soldiers:

<QUOTE>"In the eyes of the South Vietnamese, the Americans
created for themselves extra difficulties by making the war too
expensive by the way they fought it. The men from the "affluent
society" brought into Vietnam a new kind of war never seen or even
thought of before. The Vietnamese opened their eyes wide in
bewilderment when they saw U.S. forces supplied with hot meals by
helicopter while still in combat. They saw the thousands of
unnecessary gadgets piled high in huge PXs, the hundreds of planes
crossing the Pacific for the transport of American troops on
rotation. They witnessed the more than generous use of bombs and
ammunition by the U.S. forces, and hours of bombing and strafing
. . . triggered in many instances by mere sniper
fire."<END QUOTE>

I'm not going to pass judgment on whether it's a good idea to send
helicopters to provide hot means to soldiers on the front line. I'm
simply pointing to this as a capability that requires a great deal of
organizational skill and coordination, skills in logistics and command
and control, and indicative of America's capabilities in executing an
expeditionary war.

England has had centuries of experience with expeditionary wars, and
we inherited those skills. We built on those skills since WW II with
the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghan wars. All of these wars have
been politically controversial, but one thing they unequivocally
accomplished was giving the American army the skills to fight an
expeditionary war.

This assessment illustrates powerfully how armies are as different
from one another as gardeners and carpenters. There were vast
differences in both skills and culture between the American and
Vietnamese soldiers. Keep this in mind when we discuss the Russian
army. In particular, the American ability to fight an expeditionary
war with few casualties was and is unmatched in the world. However,
as we saw in Vietnam, this doesn't necessarily mean that the American
army always wins, since the American culture and skills are at
a disadvantage when facing human wave attacks.

****
**** Russia's history of crisis and non-crisis wars
****

The Russian people hate the Chinese people but love the European
people, even though Russia has been invaded by both, the worst
invasion being the hated "Mongol Yoke" that followed the 1209 Mongol
invasion of China, followed by an attack and conquest of almost all
the Russian principalities, making them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire.

The major European invasions of Russia were all non-crisis
(Awakening/Unraveling era) wars for Russia, fought in conjunction with
a crisis war for Europe. These were the Great Northern War with
Sweden during the European War of the Spanish Succession (1701-14),
Napoleon's invasion (1812) following the French Revolution, and
Hitler's invasion during World War II. Russia's army performed very
well in defending "Mother Russia" during these wars, which were
non-crisis wars even though they presented an existential crisis for
Russia.

Russia's crisis wars for the last few centuries were internal
rebellions -- the Razin's peasant rebellion in the 1600s, Pugachev's
Rebellion in the 1770s, the Crimean War in the 1850s, and the
Bolshevik Revolution in the 1910s. In other words, Russia has never
had a successful expeditionary crisis war.

This leads me to posit the following claim: That Russia's army has
been and is incompetent when executing an expeditionary war, but is
extremely competent in fighting an invading army within Russia. In
other words, the Russians don't have the culture and skills to fight
an expeditionary war.

I have to add that "Navigator" (David Schroeder), a military historian
posting in the Generational Dynamics forum, disagrees with this claim.
He says that the "trigger" for the Russian army to become extremely
competent is when Mother Russia is being threatened. The current war
in Ukraine may provide the answer to which of these claims is correct.

****
**** Russia's incompetence in the Ukraine invasion
****

There are obvious differences in skill and culture requirements
between an army fighting a defensive internal war versus an army
fighting an expeditionary war in another country. The local civilian
population supports the army in one case, and opposes the army in the
other case.

Much of the incompetence of Russia's army in Ukraine can be
attributed directly to the opposition by the local population.
The following are things that I've heard analysts say to explain
Russia's failure in Ukraine:

• The army was not supplied with enough food and ammunition to
  sustain an invasion lasting more than a few days, and did not have the
  skills to resupply the troops on the front line. The Russian troops
  were forced to raid local stores and homes just to get food, which
  obviously was not supported by the local Ukrainians. In an internal
  war, such as the Soviet army's defense of Stalingrad during WW II, the
  army would have prepositioned food and ammunition, and the local
  population would have supported the Soviet army.
  
  
• The Russian tanks ran out of petrol, and were stuck for weeks
  because they could not be resupplied.
  
  
• The stuck tanks were sitting ducks for Ukrainian anti-tank
  missiles, launched by the army with the help of the local
  population.
  
  
• Morale is very low among the Russian soldiers, because they
  consider the Ukrainians to be their brothers.
  
  
• The Russian is army is extremely hierarchal and only generals can
  make decisions. This is in contrast to the American army, where
  lower-level officers have considerable decision-making ability. In
  the Russia-Ukraine war, this meant that the generals had to personally
  lead the troops. At this time, seven generals have been killed.
  
  
• Russia has failed to capture any large city, because of fierce
  opposition of the Ukraine army and the local population. Even
  Mariupol, which has been under constant Russian bombardment for weeks,
  still has an uncertain status because the local population is fighting
  the Russians.

Contrast that with America's performance in Vietnam, where helicopters
delivered hot meals to the soldiers in the front line. I'm not saying
whether that's good or bad, but it does illustrate a mastery of supply
line management that the Russians do not have.

****
**** Russia's Winter War invasion of Finland (1939)
****

In 1939, Russia's dictator Josef Stalin ordered an invasion of
Finland to gain territory to serve as a buffer between Germany
and Russia. This war is remarkably similar in many ways
to Putin's current invasion of Ukraine. Here's how
history.com describes it:

<QUOTE>"On November 30, 1939, following a series of
ultimatums and failed negotiations, the Soviet Red Army launched
an invasion of Finland with half a million troops.

Though vastly outnumbered and outgunned in what became known as
the “Winter War,” the Finns had the advantage of fighting on home
turf. Led by Marshal Carl Gustaf Mannerheim, they hunkered down
behind a network of trenches, concrete bunkers and field
fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus and beat back repeated
Soviet tank assaults. Elsewhere on the frontier, Finnish ski
troops used the rugged landscape to conduct hit-and-run attacks on
isolated Soviet units. Their guerilla tactics were only aided by
the freezing Finnish winter, which bogged the Soviets down and
made their soldiers easy to spot against snowy terrain. One
Finnish sniper, a farmer named Simo Häyhä, was eventually credited
with over 500 kills.

While the Finns put up a spirited resistance during the winter of
1939-1940, their troops were ultimately no match for the sheer
immensity of the Red Army. In February 1940, following one of the
largest artillery bombardments since World War I, the Soviets
renewed their onslaught and overran the Finnish defenses on the
Karelian Isthmus. With its forces low on ammunition and nearing
the brink of exhaustion, Finland agreed to peace terms the
following month.

The treaty ending the Winter War forced Finland to cede 11 percent
of its territory to the Soviet Union, yet the country maintained
its independence and later squared off against Russia a second
time during World War II. For the Soviets, meanwhile, victory came
at a heavy cost. During just three months of fighting, their
forces suffered over 300,000 casualties compared to around 65,000
for the Finns. The Winter War may have also carried important
consequences for World War II. Among other things, the Red Army’s
lackluster performance is often cited as a key factor in Adolf
Hitler’s mistaken belief that his June 1941 invasion of the Soviet
Union would be a success."<END QUOTE>

Russia's final "victory" over Finland was the result of what was
essentially a human wave attack. Stalin has been quoted as saying,
"Quantity has a quality all its own," referring to such an attack.

So far, the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be very similar to
the Soviet invasion of Finland. "Navigator," the military historian
whom I quoted earlier, said that he believes that the Russians will
make the "post Winter War" adjustments and begin a national
militarization and mass mobilization. This will allow them to
repeat the human wave attacks of 1939-40.

****
**** Operation Barbarossa (1941), Hitler's invasion of Russia
****

On June 22, 1941, Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler launched Operation
Barbarossa, an invasion of the Soviet Union. More than 3 million
German and Axis troops invaded the Soviet Union along an
1,800-mile-long front. But in this case, the roles of invader and
defender were reversed from the Winter War, with the obvious
consequences.

Hitler's Blitzkrieg victories in Belgium and France made him
overconfident, even though his attempted invasion of Britain was
faltering. In Russia, the Nazi army made numerous blunders, and was
overwhelmed by the long supply lines, the harsh Russian winter, and
the fierce opposition of the Russian civilians, who were defending
"Mother Russia." The Nazis attacked but failed to control any large
cities -- Leningrad (St. Petersburg), Moscow or Stalingrad.
Hitler's defeat in Russia turned the tide decisively toward
the Allies.

****
**** Russia's invasion of Ukraine
****

Few people believe that Russia will agree to any "peace deal" short of
full conquest of Ukraine, and possibly Moldova, Poland, Romania, and
the Baltics as well. Vladimir Putin expected a quick victory in
Ukraine, and as his army suffered one setback after another, Putin is
suffering from Cognitive Dissonance which will only infuriate him and
cause him to double and triple down on the offensive. As suggested,
Putin's next step may be national militarization and mass mobilization
of the Russian population in defense of "Mother Russia," in
preparation for a human wave assault on Ukraine. This would be
similar to Stalin's actions in Finland in the Winter War.

Of course, there are some significant differences between Russia's
invasions of Finland and Ukraine, mainly the possible interventions of
Nato and China. Poland and the East European countries cannot afford
for Ukraine to lose, and China cannot afford for Russia to lose. This
is a formula for a long war, a proxy war, and a war that will spread
to the rest of Europe.

****
**** The Regeneracy in Europe, Russia and America
****

I've written about the generational theory concept of the "Regeneracy"
for years: During a generational Crisis Era, bitterly opposed
political factions put their political differences aside and unite
against the common enemy, in a regeneracy of civic unity for the first
time since the end of the previous crisis war.

In my last article, I described how the Regeneracy applied to
the European nations. All of these countries had significant
political differences, but now they are increasingly united
against Russia.

What about Russia itself? There have been some scattered anecdotes
about Russians turning against Putin, but most reports indicate that
the vast majority of Russians support Putin's war in Ukraine,
especially as he has cut off all foreign media and allow only
state-run media that says that Mother Russia is defending against
Nazis in Ukraine.

In America, the position of the Biden administration is confusion,
and laden with mixed messages, including contradictory statements
by the president and vice-president.

There are numerous reports quoting unnamed administration and military
officials that Biden has been pressuring Ukraine's president Volodymyr
Zelenskyy to accept any peace deal offered by the Russians, even one
that gives up significant territory to the Russians. Biden's
motivation would be that any other outcome would be a block to his
fanatical support of the "green new deal."

However, it's increasingly clear every day that Biden's war on the
domestic fossil fuel industry is causing huge spikes in energy prices
and inflation, which is causing Europe to suffer, and is providing the
funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Zelenskyy is considered a
hero by many Americans, while Vladimir Putin is considered evil incarnate,
and this is causing many Democrats and Republicans to demand that
Biden change policies. Biden has been forced to speed up military aid
and weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The pressure is growing to support
and encourage more domestic development of gas and oil, rather than
beg Iran and Venezuela to produce more. This is the Regeneracy
process in America, and it is continuing.

****
**** A word of thanks
****

After my last article, I was pleasantly surprised by the number of
people who have written to me to wish me well, and to tell me how
valuable my articles have been by providing a non-ideological
explanation of what's actually going on in the world. By applying
modern generational theory to historical and current events, I've
apparently filled a very important need for a few thousand people,
much more than I previously realized. It makes me want to go on, as
best as I can.

If any organization or college would like to set it up, I would be
willing to give a Zoom course on Generational Dynamics. Here's the
blurb: Twenty years ago I began developing Generational Dynamics, a
methodology for analyzing historical and current events, based on
Forrester's MIT System Dynamics applied to generational flows, and
incorporating Chaos Theory and technology forecasting. My web sites,
generationaldynamics.com and gdxforum.com, contain over 6,000 articles
with thousands of analyses and predictions about hundreds of
countries, and they've all come true or are trending true. None has
been proven wrong. In addition, I've written four books on the
history of Iran, China and Vietnam, and the history and theology of
Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Confucianism and Daoism. The
major prediction over the last 20 years has been that we are headed
for a global financial crisis and a world war against China. That
time is now approaching. So now, the Russia-Ukraine war is just
beginning, and it is expected to cause a chain reaction that will lead
to a major European war, and within a couple of years to a world war
and a global depression.

I would also like to repeat my invitation to some organization or
college that would like to take on the responsibility on further
development of Generational Dynamics.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the
Vietnam War: How Vietnam became an economic powerhouse after the
Vietnam War" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 4), March 2021
Paperback: 325 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738645/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018 Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition - Forecasting
America's Destiny",
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 3), January 2020,
Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99,
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyna...732738629/

Sources:

• Live Updates / Russia-Ukraine live news: Ukraine says entire Kyiv region retaken (Al-Jazeera, 2-Apr-2022)
  
• Russia vs Finland, 1939 / What Was the Winter War? (History.com, 3-Sep-2018)
  
• Hitler vs Russia, 1941 / Operation Barbarossa (History.com, 5-May-2021)

Related Articles:

• Asian politics confounded by Russia's debacle invasion of Ukraine (10-Mar-2022)
  
  
• China's delusional geopolitical strategy (16-Dec-2020)
  
  
• Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants (09-Nov-2021)
  
  
• Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion (02-Apr-2021)
  
  
• Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Ukraine headed for a confrontation with Putin (28-Nov-2004)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Nato,
South Africa, Zulu Empire, Shaka, Vietnam War, Korean War,
China, North Vietnam, Human wave tactics, Bui Diem,
Mongols, Mongol Yoke,
War of the Spanish Succession, Napoleon,
French Revolution, Adolf Hitler, World War II,
Finland, Winter War, Operation Barbarossa,
Blitzkrieg, France, Belgium,
Leningrad, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Stalingrad

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

The Russo-Ukrainian War looks more like the consequences of the personality of Vladimir Putin than anything else. The West has had elderly leaders of democratic countries (Churchill during the Second World War... and even more so in 1955), Reagan, Berlusconi, Trump, and now Biden). The democratic system ensures that no man can rule alone and that a loyal opposition is necessary for keeping things honest. Berlusconi and Trump both had despotic tendencies, and those tendencies imploded. As Alzheimer's gutted Ronald Reagan, some competent people like George Shulz and Casper Weinberger did the real work and relegated Reagan to a ceremonial role. Trump's problems are those of an extreme narcissist meeting the Dunning-Kruger effect; he was too intellectually-shallow to realize how incompetent he was.

One warning about Putin is Nicolae Ceausescu, who wielded dictatorial power over more than twenty years and became increasingly erratic. Putin is now at roughly the same age as Ceausescu was when he was overthrown and killed. Both Ceausescu and Putin brutally suppressed politics not theirs and ended up doing egregious misconduct which the rest of the world condemned. Putin fantasizes himself as a chess player, but know well: in those games that end in stalemate half of all chess players lose.

Putin has no graceful exit.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Apr-22 World View -- Ukraine war causes chaos in Asia -- Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Philippines

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike
  
• Anti-government protests raging across Sri Lanka
  
• Pakistan constitutional crisis puts the government in chaos
  
• Philippines facing new election as Duterte sucks up to China
  

****
**** Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike
****


Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan ousted by no-confidence vote on Saturday

In 2011, sharp increases in global food prices led protests that
started in Tunisia and spread like wildfire across the entire
Mideast in something called the "Arab Awakening."  There were
coups in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, and wars in Yemen and Syria
are continuing to this day.

With global food and fuel prices spiking, unrest is growing in several
Asian nations, and there is the prospect of a new wildfire spreading
across Asia.

Ukraine has been the largest wheat exporter in the world, with
countries in Asia, the Mideast and Africa largely dependent on
Ukraine's exports through the Black Sea.  But now Russia has shut down
ports in the Black Sea, with the result that there are massive
stockpiles of wheat in Ukraine that can't be exported.  Russia's port
blockade is creating global shortages of wheat, corn and cooking oils,
resulting in food shortages and high food prices.

Fertilizer and fuel prices have also been spiking globally.  This is
also caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine, but is also caused by
President Biden's fanatical attack on the the American fossil fuel
industry.

****
**** Anti-government protests raging across Sri Lanka
****

Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst economic crisis in decades,
with shortages of food and fuel, and steep price rises.  There are
daily power custs, and people hae to queue for hours to get cooking
gas and diesel.

This has led to days of sometimes violent anti-government protest,
with demands that president Gotabaya Rajapaksa step down.

Watching the street protests on al-Jazeera, I saw many protesters
carrying signs with slogans.  Two of the most amusing slogans that I
noticed were the following:

• "U Divided us for a seat.  Today V R uniting to throw U out
  of the seat."
  
• "No need sex.  The government f-cks me daily."
  

Sri Lanka has become the poster child for China's "debt trap
diplomacy," typically signing deals with the following terms:

• China loans the country a large amount of money at a high
  interest rate to build an infrastructure project that will benefit
  China.  The money loaned is too large to ever hope to pay it back, and
  a default leads to China's full control of the infrastructure project,
  and other country assets.
  
  
• China creates an enclave of Chinese citizens in the country to do
  the work for the infrastructure project, shutting out the local
  workforce.  Their salaries are paid out of the loan money.
  
  
• China purchases all services and supplies for the project from
  Chinese entities, so the local businesses do not benefit from the
  project.
  
  
• China pays off the government leaders with bribes to keep them
  quiet, and to guarantee that the terms of the contract will remain
  secret.
  
  
• The result is that country has to repay the loan twice, once to
  purchase goods and services from China and to pay the Chinese workers'
  salaries, and again to repay the loan to Beijing, with interest.
  

In 2008, Rajapaksa signed the agreement with China to build the
Hambantota seaport.  This was China's first major "debt trap" deal,
putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the
seaport over to China.  Furthermore, China not only has control of the
Hambantota seaport, but it also has control of a large enclave of
Chinese workers and their families who are employees of the seaport.
The seaport project has been a disaster for Sri Lanka.

Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid
back.  This debt crisis is on top of the spike in food and fuel
prices, and is triggering large anti-government riots that could
spiral.

****
**** Pakistan constitutional crisis puts the government in chaos
****

Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan was ousted from power, after
losing a no-confidence vote in parliament on Saturday.  A new prime
minister will be chosen next week.

Khan had created a constitutional crisis a week ago when he tried to
prevent the no-confidence vote from occurring by dissolving parliament
and calling for new elections.  However, Pakistan's Supreme Court
declared this to be illegal, and said that the no-confidence vote had
to go ahead.  So it did go ahead, and Khan lost.

However, it's far from clear that Khan will go quietly.  He claims
that he will not recognize an opposition government.

He also claims, without evidence, that there was a US-led conspiracy
to remove him.  It's pretty standard behavior for any politician
around the world to blame their problems on the United States, and
Khan is no exception.

Many people fear that Khan will refuse to step down, but will assume
dictatorial power to prevent the opposition party and prime minister
from taking power.  This could lead to violence or even a new civil
war.  It's been 75 since since the 1947 Partition War between Hindus
and Muslims that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent
into India and Pakistan, so, like much of the world, Pakistan is
overdue for a new generational Crisis war.  The spike in food and fuel
price is hitting Karachi and the interior very hard, and that might be
the trigger.

****
**** Philippines facing new election as Duterte sucks up to China
****

Chinese coast guard vessels and warships have been harassing
Philippines fishing and research vessels in Philippine waters adjacent
to the South China Sea.  This harassment activity has been going on
for years, as China has illegally annexed and militarized the South
China Sea, including waters historically part of the Philippines,
Vietnam, and other countries.  When I did my research for my book
"World View: War between China and Japan," I found that China has
absolutely no historical claim to the South China Sea, and this is
consistent the finding of the UN court in the Hague that China's claim
to the South China Sea is illegal.  China's claims are simply a hoax.

Ever since Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte came to power in 2016,
he has sucked up to China.

In fact, in 2018, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat of war explicit.

Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil and gas in its own
territorial waters, then China will go to war.  Duterte concluded:

    <QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
    willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that?  It will result
    in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE>

So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands.

In a phone call on Friday between Duterte and Xi Jinping, Duterte
continued his policy of appeasing China, while Xi promised to invest
more money in the Philippines.  However, Duterte's term as president
will end in June, and a new president may or may not continue the
policy of appeasing China.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
Complete Table of Contents
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources

• EXCLUSIVE Sri Lanka to seek $3 billion to stave off crisis (Reuters, 9-Apr-2022)
  
• Imran Khan ousted as Pakistan's PM after key vote (BBC, 9-Apr-2022)
  
• Imran Khan: What led to charismatic Pakistan PM's downfall (BBC, 9-Apr-2022)
  
• Who is Shehbaz Sharif, seen as frontrunner for next Pakistan PM? (Al-Jazeera, 9-Apr-2022)
  
• Philippines' Duterte, China's Xi call for restraint in South China Sea (Reuters, 9-Apr-2022)
  
• China warns Philippines against military blocs, promises more investment (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 8-Apr-2022)
  
• Ukraine Corn, Wheat Exports Will Plummet Further, U.S. Says (Bloomberg, 9-Apr-2022)
  

Related articles:

• History and future of the Russia-Ukraine war (03-Apr-2022)
  
  
• Asian politics confounded by Russia's debacle invasion of Ukraine (10-Mar-2022)
  
  
• ISIS claims credit for Sri Lanka Easter Sunday bombing (25-Apr-2019)
  
  
• Sri Lanka declares state of emergency after Buddhist-Muslim violence (07-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement (21-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea (11-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis (25-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again (30-Apr-2018)
  
  
• US-Pakistan relations hit major crossroad, as US cuts aid (03-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Arab Awakening,
Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, China, debt trap, Hambantota seaport,
Pakistan, Imran Khan, Partition war,
Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, Xi Jinping

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Apr-22 World View -- Brooklyn subway shooter may have been targeting Asians

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Brooklyn subway shooter may have been targeting Asians
  
• Analysis by NIH of black hate crimes against Asian American women
  

****
**** Brooklyn subway shooter may have been targeting Asians
****


Frank R. James, 62, person of interest in Brooklyn subway shooting (NYPD News)

Early on Tuesday morning, during rush-hour at a Brooklyn subway
station, a man in a construction vest carrying a backpack reached into
his backpack and donned a gas mask, then reached into his backpack and
set off an explosive smoke canister, and then pulled out a gun and
shot at least 16 people.  All the injured people are recovering.  The
suspected shooter, Frank R. James, is the subject of a manhunt.

The incident took place in the Sunset Park neighborhood, predominantly
home to Asian and Hispanic communities.

The suspect, Frank R. James, is a 62 year old black man.

The police have said that the motive is unknown, but the fact that the
perpetrator is black and the target is an Asian neighborhood, means
that this act of violence fits an increasingly familiar pattern --
black men targeting Asians, especially Asian women.  Asian women have
been attacked by blacks, whites and Hispanics, but the majority have
been by blacks, according to a report by the National Institutes of
Health.

****
**** Analysis by NIH of black hate crimes against Asian American women
****

In March of last year, there was a mass shooting of Asian
women in Atlanta.  The shooter was white, but it gave rise
to questions about what was going on.

I wrote an article on the subject,

based on a posting in January by the National Institutes of Health,
which used data from the Department of Justice to "examine the nature
and characteristics of hate crimes against Asian Americans."  The
report compared hate crimes against Asian Americans, African
Americans, and Hispanics.

The following is an edited version of what I wrote in that article.

The most important finding of the report is that perpetrators of hate
crimes against Asians are most likely to be blacks, for economic
reasons.  This is something that's been known anecdotally for a long
time, but the NIH report confirms it.  It's also clear that the
writers of the NIH report don't want you to easily find this result,
probably for fear that if they expose the truth, they'll get fired or
canceled.

You have to go far into the report to find the results (search for
"Table 3" or "Findings of this study, however, also provide support to
the minority-specific model"), but the findings are clear:

• Hate crimes against Asians are overwhelmingly done by blacks.
  
  "Hate crimes against Asian Americans are more likely than hate crimes
  against either African Americans or Hispanics to be committed by
  non-White offenders."
  
  
• Blacks may be motivated by their resentment of the success of
  Asians.
  
  "This finding may be attributed to animosity toward the “model
  minority” from other minority groups. As aforementioned, the “model
  minority” stereotype assuming Asian Americans’ success in economics,
  education, and other opportunities generates potential competition or
  threats by members of other racial groups, which in turn may lead to
  resentment to be further acted upon through hate crimes."
  
  
• Blacks may be motivated by fears that they'll lose their special
  privileges and financial welfare and other benefits because Asians
  will get the same benefits during downturns.
  
  "Offenders of other minorities of color targeting Asian Americans
  might fit the category of “reactionists." ...  Instead of acting
  impulsively, the “reactionists” are motivated by protecting their
  resources from competitors.... This finding might also lend indirect
  support to the perspective of racial competition motivating hate
  crimes, which argues that when members of a racial group perceive that
  their access and privileges to material resources are threatened by
  other racial groups during economic downturns, racial conflict and
  hate crimes may occur."
  

So now we return to Frank R. James, the 62 year old black "person of
interest" in Tuesday's Brooklyn subway shooting.  James is still at
large, so we still can't be sure that he was actually the shooter, we
still can't be sure whether he had help, and we still can't be sure
what his motive was.  We can imagine that James has built up 62 years
of hatred and resentment against the American system, and against
Asian Americans in particular, as suggested by the NIH report, but we
may not know for sure for many days or weeks.

All we can say at this time is that we see a familiar pattern, which
becomes worse every month, identified by the National Institutes of
Health, of Asian American women being victims of hate crimes by
blacks, and that problem still has to be recognized and solved,
whether or not Frank R. James is Tuesday's shooter.

Sources:

• Hate Crimes against Asian Americans (NIH, 7-Jan-2021)
  
• NYPD locates van sought in Brooklyn subway shooting (AP, 12-Apr-2022)
  
• Investigators identify suspect of Brooklyn subway shooting after finding a credit card at the scene (CNN, 12-Apr-2022)
  
• Frank R. James, Brooklyn Suspect: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know (Heavy.com, 12-Apr-2022)
  
• Attacks on Asian American women are igniting a conversation about public safety (CNN, 15-Mar-2022)
  
• There were 3,800 anti-Asian racist incidents, mostly against women, in past year (NBC News, 17-Mar-2021)
  
• Asians: Stop blaming Whitey (Michelle Malkin, 10-Mar-2021)
  

Related articles:

• Attacks on Asian-Pacific people in the United States (01-Jun-2021)
  
  
• CNBC's Jim Cramer: Hostility to China grows in America (27-Apr-2020)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brooklyn, Sunset Park,
Asian-Americans, Frank R. James,
National Institutes of Health, Department of Justice

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John J. Xenakis
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